[Senate Prints 109-41]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office]
109th Congress S. Prt.
COMMITTEE PRINT
1st Session 109-41
_______________________________________________________________________
PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: INTERNATIONAL
RESPONSE AND IMPACT ON U.S.
FOREIGN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
__________
STAFF TRIP REPORT
TO THE
COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
UNITED STATES SENATE
One Hundred Ninth Congress
First Session
December 2005
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
25-130 WASHINGTON : 2005
_____________________________________________________________________________
For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; (202) 512�091800
Fax: (202) 512�092250 Mail: Stop SSOP, Washington, DC 20402�090001
COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
RICHARD G. LUGAR, Indiana, Chairman
CHUCK HAGEL, Nebraska JOSEPH R. BIDEN, Jr., Delaware
LINCOLN CHAFEE, Rhode Island PAUL S. SARBANES, Maryland
GEORGE ALLEN, Virginia CHRISTOPHER J. DODD, Connecticut
NORM COLEMAN, Minnesota JOHN F. KERRY, Massachusetts
GEORGE V. VOINOVICH, Ohio RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin
LAMAR ALEXANDER, Tennessee BARBARA BOXER, California
JOHN E. SUNUNU, New Hampshire BILL NELSON, Florida
LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska BARACK OBAMA, Illinois
MEL MARTINEZ, Florida
Kenneth A. Myers, Jr., Staff Director
Antony J. Blinken, Democratic Staff Director
(ii)
C O N T E N T S
----------
Page
Letter of Transmittal............................................ v
Summary.......................................................... 1
Earthquake Relief and Recovery................................... 2
International Donor's Conference............................. 2
Earthquake Assistance........................................ 3
USAID Response............................................... 3
Department of Defense (DoD) Response......................... 3
U.S. Private Sector Initiative............................... 6
Ongoing Needs and Concerns................................... 6
Shelter...................................................... 7
Food......................................................... 7
Children..................................................... 8
Democracy........................................................ 9
Education.................................................... 10
U.S. Assistance Issues....................................... 11
India-Pakistan Relations......................................... 12
Recommendations.................................................. 13
Earthquake Relief and Reconstruction......................... 13
Democracy.................................................... 13
India-Pakistan Relations..................................... 13
(iii)
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
----------
Dear Colleague:
The committee recently sent Ms. Lisa Curtis of the
professional staff to Pakistan to attend the November 19th
International Donors' Conference in Islamabad and to assess
international relief and recovery efforts in response to the
October 8th earthquake in Pakistan.
We are pleased to share with you her trip report, which we
believe provides a useful assessment of the situation in
Pakistan following the earthquake as well as a careful look at
the U.S. response to this monumental disaster. The report
examines the implications for U.S. policies and assistance
programs to Pakistan as a result of the earthquake and provides
recommendations for sustaining the momentum of our assistance,
which has so far successfully demonstrated a strong U.S.
commitment to the country.
You also will find in the report an examination of other
issues important to U.S.-Pakistan relations, including
strengthening democracy and promoting peace between India and
Pakistan. There are a few recommendations related to these
issues that may be helpful as the Committee on Foreign
Relations continues its oversight of U.S. assistance and
policies toward Pakistan, where vital U.S. national security
interests are at stake.
We look forward to continuing to work with you on these
issues and welcome any comments you may have on this report.
Sincerely,
Richard G. Lugar,
Chairman
(v)
PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE: INTERNATIONAL
RESPONSE AND IMPACT ON U.S.
FOREIGN POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
----------
SUBMITTED BY LISA CURTIS, SFRC PROFESSIONAL STAFF MEMBER
Summary
From November 16-23, 2005, SFRC staffer Lisa Curtis
traveled to Pakistan to attend the November 19th International
Donors' Conference and to assess the international relief and
recovery efforts in response to the October 8th earthquake. The
itinerary was designed to allow staff to assess the
implications of the earthquake for U.S. assistance programs to
Pakistan as well as U.S. policies related to democracy building
and the India-Pakistan peace process. Staff visited earthquake-
affected areas in Muzaffarabad in Pakistani Kashmir and
Mansehra and Shinkiari in the Northwest Frontier Province.
The earthquake claimed more than 73,000 lives, many of them
children who were attending school when the quake measuring 7.6
on the Richter scale struck at 8:50 am on October 8th. At the
Donors' Conference, the international community pledged over
$6.2 billion in cash, in-kind assistance, and soft loans. But
staff found relief efforts remain difficult, given the rugged
and mountainous terrain of the affected areas. Many survivors
are in far-flung areas that are difficult to access and
concerns remain about their ability to cope during the winter
months in the absence of adequate shelter and supplies.
The response to the earthquake disaster by the U.S. Embassy
and USAID Mission in close coordination with the U.S. military
was reportedly rapid, efficient, and robust. This humanitarian
gesture has demonstrated to the Pakistani Government and people
that the U.S. is firmly committed to the country and its well-
being. The U.S. must pay particular attention to the issue of
transparency and accountability in the distribution of aid, a
key concern among the Pakistani population.
The Pakistan military is working closely with a mobilized
Pakistani civil society and an extraordinary international non-
governmental organization (NGO) effort to help earthquake
victims. Despite the relatively favorable view of the Pakistan
Army's role in relief efforts, conversations with mainstream
politicians and members of the civil society and think tank
community revealed a hunger for a return to democratic
politics. The U.S. needs to begin focusing its policies and
assistance programs now toward the achievement of civilian
government through free and fair elections in 2007. The impact
of the earthquake on the Pakistan-India peace process is still
unclear, although both Pakistani President Musharraf and Indian
Prime Minister Singh appear personally committed to moving it
forward.
Earthquake Relief and Recovery
International Donors' Conference
The November 19th International Donors' Conference in
Islamabad, attended by over 75 nations and international
organizations, was successful in raising $6.2 billion in cash,
in-kind assistance, and soft loans. The most generous bilateral
donors include Saudi Arabia ($593 million in grants and soft
loans); the U.S. ($510 million in grant and in-kind
assistance); \1\ China ($320 million in grants and loans); Iran
($200 million credit line); and the United Arab Emirates ($200
million in grants). Among the multilateral lenders, the World
Bank pledged $1 billion in soft loans; the Asian Development
Bank $1 billion in grants and loans; and the Islamic
Development Bank $500 million in soft loans.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The U.S. has pledged $300 million in relief and reconstruction
assistance; $110 million in transportation and military support; and
$100 million in private donations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In his remarks at the conference, Pakistani Prime Minister
Shaukhat Aziz highlighted the Pakistan government's commitment
to helping earthquake survivors rebuild their lives, indicating
this effort would be a ``marathon, not a 100-meter dash.'' The
government created the Earthquake Rehabilitation and
Reconstruction Authority (ERRA) to rapidly rehabilitate and
reconstruct the devastated regions. PM Aziz said ERRA's work
would be fully transparent and that all political parties would
be invited to participate in reconstruction work through the
mechanism of a parliamentary committee.
UN Secretary General Kofi Anan noted that Pakistan needed
the enduring support of the international community, and called
on donors to focus on recovery needs, such as cash grants to
restore livelihoods; resumption of schooling for children; and
the re-opening of roads. In helping to rehabilitate and
reconstruct the affected areas, the international community
would change the lives of the survivors.
President Musharraf, during his speech, pointed to the
historical moment the earthquake had provided regarding
Pakistan-India relations. Out of the 75 attendees from across
the globe, President Musharraf singled out India's
participation as historically significant and thanked the
Indian government for its contribution of $25 million in relief
aid. He then laid out a detailed plan for rebuilding the
devastated areas and encouraged donors to ``adopt'' individual
homes, schools, or hospitals for construction. He vowed that
his government would ``turn this human catastrophe into an
opportunity for human development.'' Musharraf acknowledged
that his government initially had difficulties transporting
goods to the affected populations, and that it was only through
the help of the international fleet of helicopters that this
problem was resolved. He said his government was on track to
provide 500,000 tents to victims who lost their homes, and that
the issue of providing shelter was now ``satisfactory.''
Musharraf highlighted the government's efforts to monetize
the earthquake-affected areas through the provision of $350
million in cash to earthquake victims ($1,700 to next of kin
and an additional $450 to each of the 400,000 affected
families). He said this will help generate business and
economic activity. The President also announced a Pakistan
Volunteer Corps to channel the ``patriotic energy'' and huge
outpouring from Pakistani civilians that had resulted from the
disaster.
U.S. Earthquake Assistance
There is tremendous appreciation among the Pakistani people
for the immediate, robust, and sustained U.S. relief efforts in
the country. Even our harshest critics admit that the U.S. has
come through for Pakistan at a critical moment and that this
generous humanitarian gesture is improving the average
Pakistanis' image of America. This is no small feat, given that
polling data from last summer showed that only 23 percent of
the Pakistani population held a favorable view of the U.S.,
while 51 percent of Pakistanis had a great deal of confidence
in Usama Bin Laden.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\2\ PEW Global Attitudes Project, July, 2005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The success of U.S. relief efforts in Pakistan is due in
large part to the work of the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad under
the leadership of Ambassador Crocker. According to interviews
with Embassy personnel, Ambassador Crocker was quick off the
mark in assessing how the U.S. should respond to the
devastating earthquake and has worked assiduously with Embassy
staff over the last two months to ensure an effective
humanitarian response.
USAID Response
USAID has so far disbursed about $60 million in earthquake
relief assistance. Immediately following the earthquake, USAID
focused its efforts on providing humanitarian assistance and
shelter to the earthquake victims. USAID has also taken steps
to promote livelihoods and market revitalization and has so far
provided about $4.5 million for cash-for-work, cash-for-
training, and voucher activities. USAID is funding distribution
of shelter materials, such as metal sheeting, tools, and
tarpaulins, and supports about a dozen international NGOs
working in Pakistan. USAID is housed on the Embassy compound in
newly-constructed facilities, but it is clear these facilities
will need to be expanded to accommodate new programs related to
earthquake relief operations.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\3\ Information in this paragraph was drawn largely from the USAID
``South Asia Earthquake Update'' dated December 2, 2005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Department of Defense (DoD) Response
Within 24 hours of the earthquake, the U.S. military sent
two helicopters from Afghanistan. The U.S. now has 16
helicopters involved in relief efforts in Pakistan, down from
24 in mid-November. DoD reports that there are currently four
Australian helicopters and a fleet of 73 additional
international helicopters (mostly Pakistani, for which the U.S.
has provided spare parts) involved in the relief effort. DoD
says that winter weather conditions are beginning to prohibit
their ability to fly, but that they intend to retain some U.S.
helicopters in Pakistan through the winter.
U.S. Chinook at Chaklala Air Base, the staging ground
for international relief efforts
Perhaps the largest contribution the U.S. military made to
the relief effort was the logistical management of the air
space and relief operations staged from Chaklala air base
(located adjacent to the Islamabad International Airport).
Given the mountainous terrain of the earthquake-affected
regions, limited landing zones, and the Pakistanis' limited air
traffic control capacity, the Pakistani system was initially
overwhelmed and U.S. military support was crucial in ensuring a
coordinated, efficient, and effective international relief
effort. During the November 21st staff visit to Chaklala air
base, U.S. military officers made clear that the Pakistan
government was in charge of the international relief effort,
but also reported that the U.S. military had worked closely
with the Pakistan Army to organize and coordinate it. NATO has
also played an instrumental role in providing relief, clearing
roads, removing debris, and providing medical assistance. NATO
is scheduled to depart Pakistan in February. Pakistani
religious parties have questioned the presence of NATO troops
in Pakistan and tried to whip up fears that NATO was
establishing a long-term presence in the country.
Relief supplies at Chaklala Air Base
There are currently about 1,000 U.S. soldiers on the ground
in Pakistan, including some from Louisiana who lost their own
homes in Hurricane Katrina. Staff heard numerous stories from a
wide variety of Pakistani interlocutors about the warm feelings
the Pakistani population held toward the U.S. military because
of their involvement in the relief efforts. Pakistanis had
spontaneously thanked U.S. soldiers in the markets in
Islamabad, while U.S. flags could be found flying in remote
villages of Pakistani Kashmir.
During a brief stop in Muzaffarabad, staff visited a U.S.
military mobile medical unit that had been established in late
October. There were 16 doctors and 72 nurses at the facility,
treating about 100 patients per day, mostly for broken bones
and some cases of tetanus. Staff also visited a newly-
established U.S. mobile medical unit in Shinkiari in the
Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP). Nearly 200 Okinawa-based
Marines and sailors set up camp in this remote village on
November 15th and reportedly treat about 100-200 patients per
day.\4\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\4\ Information on the current number of patients was drawn from
the DoD website.
Local children receiving medical attention at the U.S. mobile medical
unit in Muzaffarabad
U.S. Private Sector Initiative
On October 27th, President Bush launched a private sector
initiative to encourage private donations for relief and
reconstruction. On November 14th, State Department Under
Secretary for Public Diplomacy Karen Hughes led a delegation to
Pakistan that included three distinguished U.S. CEO's: Hank
Mckinnell, Chairman and CEO of Pfizer, Inc.; Anne Mulcahy,
Chairman and CEO of Xerox Corporation; and Jim Kelly, former
Chairman and CEO of United Parcel Service (UPS), Inc. These
business leaders will work with other Americans to raise
awareness and resources to help victims of the earthquake.
According to an Indiana University-based tracking system, $73
million in U.S. private donations has so far been disbursed to
victims of the South Asia earthquake.
Ongoing Needs and Concerns
Pakistani interlocutors noted the importance of the U.S.
disbursing its aid in a way that encourages transparent and
accountable development. Pakistanis, in general, were pleased
by the huge international outpouring of support at the Donors'
Conference, but they questioned how this money would be
disbursed and whether it would go through the President's
Relief Fund or through established NGOs. During staff visit to
Muzaffarabad, one of the Urdu speakers on the U.S. delegation
was stopped by a local woman who claimed that the aid was not
being distributed fairly and pleaded for the U.S. to use its
influence to ensure that the aid went to the people who
genuinely needed it.
Staff observed a fair amount of economic activity in
downtown Muzaffarabad, with shopkeepers displaying an array of
food items, clothing, shoes, and other household items. Many
shop owners displayed their goods in the open air, with their
collapsed shops behind them. There was a tremendous amount of
destruction and rubble that still needed to be cleared.
Earthquake destruction in downtown Muzaffarabad
Shelter
There was mixed feedback on the dangers winter poses to
those in remote areas, but one NGO reported in early December
that the grim predictions of mass deaths registered one month
ago now appear unlikely. During staff visit, Pakistan
government officials seemed to think the issue of shelter was
under control, while some NGOs said it is still a question. One
Pakistani commentator noted that since some areas had not yet
been accessed, it was impossible to assess what percentage of
the population might still be at risk. Most NGOs are now
focusing on distributing shelter packages (roofing material and
tools) to those in remote areas still without shelter, rather
than trying to transport tents. The UN says it expects an
exodus of refugees (100,000-200,000) from the mountains into
low-lying areas in the coming weeks, as villagers flee an
increasingly bitter winter.
Food
One local NGO representative working in the Balakot area
reported that the availability of food was not yet a problem in
these areas since many people were able to salvage food that
had been stored in the ground. Food drops had also been
successful in remote areas like the Allai Valley. Other NGO
representatives reported food shortages in remote areas.
Inflation was also a concern, partly due to the Government's
cash infusion of over $350 million to affected families. U.S.
military officers at Chaklala air base reported that food
relief operations were focused largely on moving food stocks
into forward areas since helicopters would not be able to fly
into far-flung areas once snow started to fall.
Children
Pakistani children have suffered tremendously from this
disaster, and need special attention from relief workers. It is
estimated that perhaps 50 percent of the 73,000 that perished
were children who were attending school when the earthquake
struck. According to the Pakistan government, 16,000 schools
were destroyed or badly damaged. UNICEF has identified four
fundamental steps to addressing children's needs in the wake of
the disaster: keeping children alive, caring for those children
separated from their parents, protecting children from
exploitation, and getting them back to school. Education
programs provide security, a sense of normalcy, and hope for
the future. They are ``safe spaces'' for children and provide a
support system, especially for vulnerable children, such as
those separated from their families. \5\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\5\ This information was drawn from the Basic Education Coalition's
``After the Earthquake: Pakistan's Affected Children and Schools,''
published in October 2005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Staff visited a makeshift school in Muzaffarabad that the
U.S. military, in cooperation with the local population, had
established. The school, comprising about 15-20 winterized
tents, was set up on a site where an elementary school had
completely collapsed. U.S. soldiers were still clearing much of
the debris from the area, but it was heartening to see about
150-200 children attending school in the tents. Staff visited
an 11th grade class in which the teenage girls and boys were
studying Physics. Some of these children reported living in
camps on the outskirts of Muzaffarabad. The students appeared
in good health and to be coping as best as could be expected.
Girls attending 11th grade Physics class in a makeshift school
established by
the U.S. military, in cooperation with local workers, on the site of a
completely
collapsed school in Muzaffarabad
Representatives from an established local NGO, the Kashmir
Institute of International Relations (KIIR), reported concerns
immediately following the disaster that orphaned children would
be trafficked. However, following the Pakistan government's
institution of a ``no adoption'' policy and increased scrutiny
by security forces of the transport of children at security
check points, the dangers of child trafficking appeared to be
in check.
Democracy
There were mixed feelings about the Pakistan Army's role in
relief efforts, and widespread criticism that the Army had been
slow to respond in the first 3-4 days, possibly because they
were coping with their own losses along the Line of Control
(LoC). Despite its slow start, a number of people expressed
that the Pakistan Army was now doing a relatively good job with
relief efforts and cooperating effectively with international
and local NGOs and civilian volunteers on the ground.
The Pakistani civil society mobilized effectively to help
the earthquake victims, a phenomenon that has energized and
emboldened many Pakistani civilians. There was a tremendous
urge to help their countrymen and many Pakistanis rushed to the
affected areas to do whatever they could to help. One
commentator noted that Pakistani civilians now see what they
are capable of achieving when they organize and work together.
During his speech at the Donors' Conference, Gareth Thomas,
UK Minister for International Development, pointed to the need
for ``broad political ownership'' of the recovery and
reconstruction efforts in the country. A UK diplomat said his
government saw an opportunity in the reconstruction process to
encourage political reconciliation between the military and
mainstream political parties.
There is widespread concern among Pakistani politicians,
commentators, and journalists that the democratic process and
institutions in Pakistan have been set back under the six-year
rule of President Musharraf. Pakistani interlocutors expressed
frustration that President Musharraf was weakening democratic
institutions and contributing to an overall militarization of
society. They viewed his publicized plan of ``enlightened
moderation'' as disingenuous, noting that his government had
contributed to the increasing influence of the religious
parties, while closing the political space for mainstream
political parties with more moderate, progressive agendas. Some
voiced concern that the U.S. had failed to comment on local
bodies elections held in August that were widely viewed as
flawed, and urged that U.S. support for democracy in Pakistan
be given a higher priority in bilateral relations.
Despite complaints about the decay of democratic
institutions, interlocutors widely agreed that the media was
much freer than a few years ago. One Pakistani academic told
staff that he felt freer to publish what he wanted than he did
ten years ago under a democratic government. Many attributed
the freedom of the media to the information explosion rather
than any specific government policy.
There was criticism of President Musharraf's devolution
plan and the USAID program supporting it. The Pakistan
government has presented its plan for devolution as an effort
to improve public services and has attracted considerable
support from international donors. Some contended, however,
that it was merely a plan to ensure the military regime's
survival. Others noted that USAID officials did not have
appropriate monitoring mechanisms to ensure the program's
efficacy and that the program was not meeting the objective of
promoting democracy. USAID officials acknowledged to staff in
mid-December that there had been problems with USAID's support
to the devolution process but that they had recently identified
a new contractor to redesign the USAID program and would be
transitioning to a more focused initiative to support
devolution. The U.S. official noted that it was important to
encourage local government support for health and education
programs and that USAID would focus increasingly on those
districts where other USAID-supported programs are active,
addressing governance issues that impede service delivery.
Education
USAID's education program in Pakistan began in 2002 and
involves both basic and higher education. The education
programs are concentrated in the underdeveloped provinces of
Sindh and Baluchistan and the Federally Administered Tribal
Areas (FATA). Education funding for Pakistan totaled $66
million for FY 2005. The Basic Education program benefits over
367,000 Pakistani children and 18,000 teachers and includes
teacher training, school improvement, policy and planning, and
other basic education activities. The higher education program
includes a grant to the Fulbright Commission to provide 500
scholarships for post-graduate degree scholarships in the
U.S.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\6\ Information in this paragraph was drawn from USAID information
sheets provided by the USAID Mission in Islamabad.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Staff visited a USAID-supported girls' school on the
outskirts of Islamabad. Through a grant of only $1,500, USAID
inspired the people of this community to establish a Parent
Teacher's Association (PTA) and build a library for the school.
Staff met with members of the PTA, visited with students in the
first-grade class, and toured the library that is under
construction. The community has taken responsibility for
equipping the library that will serve the 517 primary and
secondary level girl students and teachers.
The U.S. also is encouraging the Government of Pakistan to
spend more of its own resources on education to support
President Musharraf's goal of promoting a progressive, moderate
society. Pakistan recently pledged to increase its spending on
education to 4 percent of its GDP, according to the USAID
Mission Director in Islamabad, and allocated about $35 million
to education from the FY 2005 $200 million in U.S. direct
budget support.
U.S. Assistance Issues
Many observers have noted over the last two years that U.S.
assistance to Pakistan needs to focus more directly on
institution building and on projects that demonstrate the U.S.
is committed to uplifting the lives of average Pakistanis. A
study done last year by the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) argues for more programmed
assistance to Pakistan, at least half of which should be
dedicated to supporting a major effort to rebuild institutions.
``The 9/11 Public Disclosure Project,'' released on November
14, 2005, states that too much of our assistance is in the form
of a cash transfer and that more U.S. funding should be
dedicated to education.
U.S. assistance to Pakistan since September 2001 has
focused largely on debt relief, budgetary support, and to a
lesser--but increasing--degree on education, health care, and
development projects. The U.S. has provided about $1.2 billion
to the Government of Pakistan for foreign exchange needs and to
repay debts to multilateral institutions since 2001, while
USAID has obligated about $300 million during the same period
on health, governance, and economic growth programs.\7\
Although the $1.2 billion in direct funding has helped ease
macroeconomic pressures on Pakistan, such as enabling it to
reduce its total government debt from 89 percent of GDP in 2000
to 64 percent in 2004, \8\ the administration should consider
whether a portion of this direct assistance can now be
programmed toward additional USAID education, health, and
democracy building projects.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\7\ These figures were provided by USAID staff in December 2005.
\8\ Secretary of State Congressional Budget Justification for
Foreign Operations, fiscal year 2006.
Out of this fiscal year's $700 million economic and
military assistance package to Pakistan, only $15
million of this funding is allocated to democracy and
governance programs. Staff was pleased to learn from
USAID officials that this sum is expected to increase
in FY 2007 by another $15 million, but this still
appears to be an insufficient sum, given the need for
democratic institution building in the country.
India-Pakistan Relations
Last month's opening of five crossing points along the Line
of Control (LoC) that divides Kashmir provided a much-needed
boost to peace efforts, following two weeks of public wrangling
between the two governments over implementation of assistance
to the earthquake survivors. The two sides wasted precious time
in the days following the earthquake by arguing over the use of
helicopters. Pakistan refused Indian helicopter support, saying
this would allow New Delhi to collect intelligence in a
sensitive part of the country, while India rebuffed Pakistan's
request that the Indian helicopters be piloted by Pakistani
servicemen. The LoC border openings provided a way out of the
helicopter impasse, but many were disappointed by the public
jockeying in the wake of the disaster.
During staff visit, Pakistani Prime Minister Aziz declared
his support for demilitarization and self-rule in Kashmir.
Although Aziz did not provide details on his proposal, some
interlocutors in Pakistan recommended gradual demilitarization
in Kashmir, beginning with urban areas. They further asserted
that self-rule applied only to Azad Kashmir on the Pakistan
side and the Valley and three districts of Jammu (Punch,
Rajauri, and Jammu districts) on the Indian side of the LoC.
When staff queried how demilitarization can occur when militant
violence continues in Indian Kashmir, they argued that
extremist groups will never change their minds or stop using
violence.
A major issue to monitor over the next several months is
whether extremist groups, such as the Jamat ul-Dawa (JUD--
formerly the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, a State Department-designated
Foreign Terrorist Organization), are using their increased
influence with the population in Pakistani Kashmir to recruit
for the Kashmir militancy. The JUD was one of the first groups
to help rescue victims in Pakistani Kashmir and help families
in the region bury their dead. The JUD is not only familiar
with the terrain in these areas, but also experienced in social
outreach and adept at raising funds at Mosques. Pakistani
observers reported that several extremist groups formally
banned by the Pakistan government are now fully operative and
highly visible in all earthquake zones. They are seen in the
market places and reportedly drive in SUVs, indicating they
have substantial income sources. Observers note that these
extremist organizations have a new claim to legitimacy, given
their successful relief efforts in the region.
The Pakistan Government will need to ensure that
violent extremist groups like the JUD are restricted
from using their resources for terrorism-related
activities, such as militant recruitment or incitement
toward violent jihad in Kashmir and/or Afghanistan.
One Pakistani commentator, citing the increased influence
of the jihadi organizations and unprecedented international
access to Pakistani Kashmir, noted that ``winds of change were
blowing in the region.'' It is still unclear whether President
Musharraf and Prime Minister Singh will be able to harness some
of the recent goodwill and capitalize on sympathetic feelings
on both sides to move the peace process forward. They will need
to act boldly and swiftly in this regard in order to counter
some of the negative trends that could develop in the region.
Recommendations
Earthquake Relief and Reconstruction
1. The relief and recovery effort in Pakistan will continue
over the next one to three years. The U.S. should maintain air
support to relief operations through at least March 2006,
especially since road travel will be increasingly limited due
to severe weather conditions. USAID should begin as soon as
possible efforts to reconstruct schools and health facilities
in earthquake-affected areas in the Northwest Frontier Province
and Pakistani Kashmir.
2. Congress should continue to monitor and evaluate whether
the current package of $150 million in 2006 funding for
humanitarian relief and recovery is sufficient (as of this
date, $80 million of those funds had already been programmed).
3. U.S. earthquake assistance programs should focus on
promoting democratic, self-sustaining social development as
well as capacity building within civil society and community
participation. The U.S. also will need to pay particular
attention to the involvement of women in the reconstruction
process.
Democracy
1. Focus U.S. policies and assistance programs now on
ensuring free and fair elections that will produce a civilian
government in 2007. This could include increasing public
awareness of U.S. support for democracy and programming more
funds toward democracy and institution building.
2. The U.S. administration should consider transferring
more funds from the current annual $200 million in direct cash
transfer to the Pakistani Government toward USAID programs that
promote democracy. These programs should focus on rooting out
institutional corruption, improving the functioning of the
judiciary and parliament, and strengthening the electoral
process.
3. Given concerns raised about USAID's support to
devolution in Pakistan, Congress will need to monitor this
program, for which USAID has programmed $17.7 million over the
period of 2002-2007.
Pakistan-India Peace Process
1. Monitor activities of JUD and other militant groups that
may be trying to take advantage of the situation to whip up
support for militancy in Kashmir.
2. Encourage India and Pakistan to take another major
confidence building step that involves participation by the
local populations on both sides of the Line of Control that
divides Kashmir as a way to fortify the peace process.
----------
Staff held discussions with the following individuals in Pakistan:
U.S. Embassy/State Department
Patricia Brandemaier, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission
Tim Wilder, Political Counselor
Divya Swamy, Political Officer
Andrew Quinn, Economic Counselor
Peter Kovach, Director, Public Affairs Office
Mary Virginia Kennedy, South Asia Bureau Earthquake Coordinator
USAID
USAID Mission Director, Lisa Chiles
USAID Mission Deputy Director, Patricia Rader
Julie Koenen-Grant, Senior Governance Advisor
Thomas Crehan, Education Officer
William Berger, DART Leader, Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster
Assistance
U.S. Military
Navy Rear Admiral Michael LeFever, Commander of the U.S. Disaster
Assistance Center in Islamabad
Pakistan Government
Syed Sail Abbas, Director (Americas), Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Non-Governmental Organizations
Charles MacCormack, President, Save the Children
Samina Khan, Executive Director, Sungi Development Foundation
Asma Jehangir, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Freedom of
Religion or Belief of the Commission on Human Rights
Sardar Amjad Yousef, President, Kashmir Institute of International
Relations
Sheeba Afghani, Independent Development Consultant
Commentators/Academics
Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, Professor of Physics, Quaid-e-Azam University,
Islamabad
Talat Hussain, Special Correspondent with Newsweek
Naveed Ahmad, Staff Correspondent for the Pakistani Daily, ``The
News''
Farhan Bokhari, Correspondent, ``Financial Times''
Dr. Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, President, Islamabad Policy Research
Institute
Lt. Gen. Talat Masood (Retd.), Former Secretary Defense Production,
Ministry of Defense
Major Gen. Jamshed Ayaz Khan (Retd.), President Institute of
Regional Studies
Khalid Rahman, Executive Director, Institute of Policy Studies
Politicians
Raja Pervez Ashraf, Secretary General of the Pakistan People's
Party Parliamentarians and Member of the National Assembly
Senator Iqbal Haider
Abida Hussain, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and former Ambassador
to the U.S.
Aitzaz Ahsan, Member of the National Assembly
Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
Shah Ghulam Qadir, Secretary General, All Jammu and Kashmir Muslim
Conference
Other
Peter Wilson, British High Commission