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Harborcreek Tow'nship Draff Background Analysls prepared by the Harborcreek Township Officials and the Erie County Department of PI g I IIN 90 29 C6 1994 1994 BACKGROUND ANALYSIS FOR THE HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP COMPREHENSIVE PLAN A REPORT OF THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES TO THE NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION PURSUANT TO NOAA AWARD NO. - NA370ZO351 DER GRANT/CONTRACT NO. - CZ1:93.01PE GRANT TASK NO. CZ1:93PE.05 ME NO. 93229 COASTAL Funded and Coordinated through Department of Environmental Resour- ses. Office of Resourses Management, Bureau of Resourses Management, Division of Coast- al Zone Management and the Erie County De- partment of Planning. ZONE This project was financed in part through a Federal Coastal Zone Management Grant from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources with funds provided by the NOAA. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its subagencies. This project was financed in part by the Township of Harborcreek and the Erie County Department of Planning. US Department of Commerce NOAA Coastal Services Center Library 2234 South Hobson Avenue Charleston, SC 29405-2413 i 1994 BACKGROUND ANALYSIS FOR THE HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Chapter TABLE OF CONTENTS -Page TITLE PAGE .................................................... i TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................. ii-iv INTRODUCTION .................................................. 1 & 2 CHAPTER 1 HISTORY ............................................ 1-3 Introduction .............................................. 1 Early History ............................................. I Topography, Transportation and Economy .................... I Recent History ............................................ 3 CHAPTER 2 PHYSICAL FEATURES .................................. 1-5 Introduction .............................................. 1 Soils ..................................................... 1 Physical and Water Features ............................... 2 Climate ................................................... 3 CHAPTER 3 POPULATION ANALYSIS ................................ 1-3 Introduction .............................................. I Population Composition .................................... 1 Population Projections .................................... 2 Demographic Report ........................................ 3 CHAPTER 4 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS .................................. 1-9 Introduction .............................................. 1 Employment Areas .......................................... 1 Employers ................................................ 2 Demographic Report ........................................ 2 CHAPTER 5 HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................... 1-9 Introduction .............................................. Housing Market ............................................ 3 Mobile Homes .............................................. 3 Housing Tenure and Supply ................................. 5 Housing Occupancy ......................................... 6 Housing Structure Conditions .............................. 6 Housing Units Per Structure ............................... 8 Housing Age ............................................... 9 Housing Need .............................................. 9 CHAPTER 6 LAND USE ANALYSIS .................................. 1-4 Introduction .............................................. I Classifications ........................................... 1 Land Use Patterns ......................................... 2 CHAPTER 7 TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS ............................ 1-11 Introduction .............................................. 1 Highway System ............................................ 1 Traffic Volumes ........................................... 2 Road Mileage .............................................. 5 Signing and Signalization ................................. 5 Pending Improvement Projects .............................. 6 Roadway Maintenance ....................................... 7 LIFT Service ............................................. 8 Air Service ............................................... 8 Rail Service .............................................. 8 CHAPTER 8 COMMUNITY FACILITIES ............................... 1-23 Introduction .............................................. 1 Schools ................................................... I Recreation ................................................ 7 Police Protection ......................................... 10 Fire and Emergency Protection ............................. 10 municipal Services and Facilities ......................... 14 Hospitals/Medical Facilities .............................. 15 Libraries .......................................... *''**** 17 Churches .................................................. 18 Historic Sites ............................................ 19 Communications ............................................ 20 CHAPTER 9 PUBLIC UTILITIES ..... ............................. 1-7 Water Facilities .......................................... I Sanitary Sewer Facilities ................................. 2 Storm Drainage Facilities ................................. 3 Electric 4 Natural Gas Facilities .................................... 4 APPENDIX ..................................................... Harborcreek Demographic Analysis and Population Projections Report - 1994 ................................. 1-75 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF MAPS Chapter Paqe Regional Location ............................... 1 2 Prime and Unique Agricultural Soils .............. 2 4 Sensitive Environmental Areas .................... 2 5 Census Tracts .................................... 5 2 Generalized Present Land Use ..................... 6 3 Protected Agricultural Lands ..................... 6 4 Highway System and Traffic Volumes ............... 7 10 Signalization and Rail System .................... 7 11 Cable Service System ............................. 8 22 Ownership Patterns ............................... 8 23 Water Distribution System ........................ 9 5 Sanitary Sewer Collection System ................. 9 6 Natural Gas Distribution System .................. 9 7 iv INTRODUCTION Local comprehensive planning is not new to the community of Harborcreek Township. This planning effort represents the third time in 30 years that the municipality will develop a background analysis of the study area, formalize the community development goals and objectives, and finalize the plan elements. The first planning endeavor was in the 1960's; the second plan document was adopted'in 1980; with this endeavor resulting in the Harborcreek Township Background Analysis-1994 and the Harborcreek Township Comprehensive Plan-1995. This Comprehensive Plan will assist the elected officials in developing a policy to guide decisions in regard to the physical development of the community. It is important to understand that the Comprehensive Plan, and its various elements, is not a legally binding document, and it does not take the form of an ordinance. When a community decides to adopt a comprehensive plan, it is- accepting by resolution that the recommendations within the plan are the guidelines for future development and related government actions of municipal officials. The various elements of this Plan should be reviewed on a periodic basis in the future, and revised when unforeseen conditions occur which reflect on the social, economic and physical makeup of Harborcreek Township and its immediate adjacent area. The goals and objectives of the Plan and the policies upon which the Plan is based, should be regarded as a more permanent part of the document. It is intended that the goals and objectives of the plan represent the official philosophy of the governing body of the municipality and its planning commission. The elected and appointed officials of Harborcreek Township are inescapably involved in questions of physical development. At nearly every meeting of the Board of Supervisors and the Planning Commission development decisions must be made concerning zoning, subdivisions, utilities, facilities and so on. Public officials must plan for future demands on community services and fiscal outlays by which improvements to these services can be made. These officials need an instrument by wh-1ch to inventory the community's resources and liabilities, and establish short and long range policies for the physical development of the community in a coordinated, unified manner that can be continually referred to in order to intelligently make these decisions. Such is the intent behind the Harborcreek Township Comprehensive Plan. Probably the most difficult goal facing any community is the development of a means for promoting and controlling orderly growth. This Plan is an integral part of the municipal effort toward reaching that goal. Although other studies, together with ordinances and regulations, are or may become important to achieving the desired goals, the Harborcreek Township Comprehensive Plan should be the basis upon which those other documents are founded. REGIONAL LOCATION MAP H a r b o r c r e e k T o w n s h i p ERIE COUNTY, PENNSYLVANIA Lake Erie ERIE COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF PLANNING 1994 CHAPTER 1 HISTORY Introduction The following information was taken from a paper developed by Judy Wieczorek, Chairperson of the Harborcreek Township Historical Society and local historian, specifically for this study. Early History Harborcreek Township in the last several decades of the eighteenth century was a wilderness. It is likely that,the area now comprising Harborcreek Township was at various times inhabited by native Americans consisting of, for example, the Eriez, usually referred to as the Cat Nation. The much disputed Erie Triangle, which included what would become Harborcreek Township, was transferred from the Federal government to Pennsylvania on April 23, 1792. The Pennsylvania Population Company, which had 390 warrants on land located within the Triangle, hired Thomas Rees in 1792 to survey the Triangle. The compensation given to Rees-for acting as agent for the Pennsylvania Population Company was 30,000 acres for one dollar an acre. Fifteen thousand acres are of particular relevance, for it is within this very large body of real estate that a significant portion of Harborcreek is contained. The Rees reserve was laid out and surveyed between 1797 and 1799. In 1802 Rees moved to Harborcreek, laid out his land in farms, sold them off except for one parcel which he retained for himself, and ended his days on May 1, 1848 at the age of 55. He is buried in Gospel Cemetery with other family members. Other early Harborcreek family names were Chambers, Saltsman, Prindle, Elliot and Moorhead. Some of these early settlers, notably Thomas Rees and Thomas Moorhead, brought with them slaves. Two African-Americans, Robert McConnell and James Titus, ages four and one respectively, arrived with the household of Rees. A woman who was known only as Phoebe and her son Ceasar Augustus were members of the Moorhead household. After their 28 years of service some of Rees' slaves apparently were freed and given land by their former owner. At the time of his death in Harborcreek in 1871, McConnell had eight children most of whom were married. Thus, Harborcreek, one of the original 16 Townships established in Erie County, became home to the largest African- American population in the County at that time. Topography, Transportation and Economy Harborcreek Township today, consisting of 33.7 square miles, is bounded by Lake Erie on the north giving the Township a lake frontage of about seven miles. North East and Greenfield Townships constitute the eastern limits of Harborcreek, while it is bounded on the south by Greene Township. Originally, Millcreek Township formed the western border of Harborcreek. Through time, however, changes occurred modifying the western limits of Harborcreek. Wesleyville, one of three villages in the Township, was a thriving, entrepreneurial community by 1890. In 1912 the Borough of Wesleyville was established as a separate political entity. Then in the .1920's, on the heels of World War I, the General Electric plant located in what had been the northeastern part of Millcreek. Today Lawrence Park Township, just east of GE, forms the northernmost section of Harborcreek's eastern border. Continuing southward Wesleyville Borough is another section of the eastern border, then Erie City for about two miles and finally Millcreek Township forms the southernmost eastern boundary. Historically, it appears the lake frontage of Harborcreek experienced little systematic planning and/or development. Presently, the lake front consists of residential, business and agricultural zones. A short distance from the lake shore a gradual ascent begins, eventually forming two principle land forms - lakeplain and the upland. The lakeplain, which parallels Lake Erie, extends inland three to four miles reaching a ridge between 900 and 1,000 feet elevation. Early in the Township's existence this area was used to cultivate fruits, berries, grapes and melons, meeting with a high degree of success. More recently, this area has been used for growing cash crops such as grapes, sour cherries, tomatoes and peaches. Of note, Harborcreek and Northeast Townships form the largest concentration of concord grape land in the United States. The upland area, between the first and second ridges, has been and continues to be suitable for farming. South of this area the land is used for grazing and grain. It is obvious that Harborcreek historically has been an agrarian community. There is little doubt that it continues to be, recent development notwithstanding. For example, in 1980 45% of the Township was used for agricultural purposes. Evidence of the Township's strong determination to retain its rural character was the passage in 1992 of an Agricultural Security Area providing protection from encroaching urban development. In its early history, some of the inland waterways figured significantly in the Township's economy. The Cooper Grist, Saw and Cider Mill along Fourmile Creek near the foot of Wintergreen Gorge was once a famous landmark of the lake shore region. Troop's Basket Factory and Cider Mill wer 'e located at Harbor Creek Station on Sevenmile Creek, and the historically important Cass Woolen Mill stood at the headwaters of Sixmile Creek in the southeastern section of the Township. Technologically advanced sources of power eventually made these mills obsolete. The railroads were another feature of Harborcreek's economy. The Lake Shore and Nickel Plate Railroads passed through the Township from east to west. Stations for these railroads were located in the Villages of Wesleyville, Harborcreek and Moorheadville. The Philadelphia and Erie Railroad traveled through the western part of the Township in a semi-circular direction at the gully of Fourmile Creek. This railroad was a flag station at Shannon's Crossing. East Lake (State Route 5), Buffalo (U.S. Route 20) and Station (State Route 430) Roads were the main roads of the Township in the 1860's and continue to be to this day. The first two are in the northern section and run east to west. Route 5 provides direct access to shoreline and lakefront properties. Both Routes 5 and 20 continue 2 eastward into New York State and westward into Ohio. In 1813 Station Road was laid out from Colt's Station in Greenfield Township to Mayville, New York. No later than 1865 Station Road extended northwesterly into Wesleyville. It now parallels Route 17 in Pennsylvania and western New York State. A benefit to Harborcreek was realized in 1957 when Interstate 90 was laid out running east to west. Two exits (#9 and 10) provide access to Harborcreek from.this principal arterial. Presently there are approximately 120 miles of State and Township owned/maintained roads. The tradition of very well maintained roads continues to be observed. Recent History In keeping with its history and growth, Harborcreek continues to provide its citizenry with a comprehensive spectrum of goods, services and activities. There are shopping plazas, day care centers, parks, sports fields, restaurants, residences. Penn State- Erie, The Behrend College provides a cultural series and a new- library complex. Harborcreek also is home to a community YMCA, as well as an AARP Chapter. In all, Harborcreek today has at least 50 trades, occupations, professions and agencies of one kind or another to serve Harborcreek residents and others outside of the Township. The Harborcreek Area Chamber of Commerce was originally formed in 1961 but had waned by the mid-eighties. It was reactivated and revitalized in 1989. In addition to its purpose of promoting the business community, it now sponsors the widely acclaimed Harborfest. This event is a family oriented festive celebration lasting several days each year that attracts visitors from the whole region. Much of the growth of Harborcreek has been dependent upon the availability of potable water and sewer systems. In 1964, nearly 90% of Harborcreek residents had their own wells, and all residents depended upon septic systems to handle sewage. The first sewer project was begun in 1971 and completed in 1974. Gradually, water and sewer lines were and continue to be extended, and have both serviced existing development in need, and encouraged new growth. In 1940, before water and sewer facilities were available, Harborcreek's population was 3,600. After World War II in 1950, there were nearly 7,500 residents. In 1960 the population had risen to over 10,000. The decade of the sixties saw the beginning of water and sewer facilities. In addition, as Erie, like other large cities, began to experience urban disorganization, out-migration became a common pattern of mobility. As a result, Harborcreek has been a primary beneficiary of out-migration from the City of Erie. Between 1950 and 1990 Erie's population had declined nearly 17%. Harborcreek's population has increased by over 100% in the same time period. Harborcreek's current population is estimated to be nearly 16,000. An interesting characteristic of the in-migration to Harborcreek is that it has cut across socio-economic classes and ethnic groups. Racial groups, however, are disproportionate in the Township. In 1990, 97.7% of the population was listed as White and 2.3% represented all other races. Also in 1990, 81% of the housing units in Harborcreek were single family dwellings and 19% were all other forms of housing. 3 CHAPTER 2 PHYSICAL FEATURES Introduction The physical nature of the earth, its topography, slope, geological composition, and type of soil structure, is a primary influence-in determining how a community may be developed. The character of the land varies from one location to another as may be easily observed on the surface. Together these characteristics play an important role in determining a logical use of the land. The following data is a presentation of the physical and water features, and the general soils development potential as they exist within Harborcreek Township. It is not the intent of thi's section to develop and analyze the problems that may arise due to the existence of these natural features for future development in the rural areas of Harborcreek. Soils Soil types play a very important role in determining the development patterns of a community. While one location may be readily suitable for urban development, another may have certain hidden limitations which must be made recognizable and taken into account. The decision as to whether or not a soil will be used for a specific purpose, regardless of the limitation, is beyond the scope of this document. It also indicates those soils which have been determined to have the greatest potential for agriculture, mineral extraction, and areas most suitable for general development. Prime Agricultural Soils: Not all soils are well suited for agriculture. Stoniness, steep slopes, shallow scil and high water tables are conditions which restrict agricultural productivity. Soils which have the highest potential for productivity are usually known as prime agricultural soils. Such soils are typically deep, fertile, well to moderately well drained and are found on slopes which usually measure less than ten percent. The water holding capacity, texture and nutrients within these soils are conducive to high agricultural productivity, and being relatively level and well drained, a wide variety of crops, can be efficiently grown as well. These soils are frequently found in floodplains and valleys where adequate moisture provides for good plant growth. A combination of lakeplain soils and lake effect climate are highly conducive to the production of vine and tree fruit along the northern third of the Township. The accompanying Prime and Unique Agricultural Soils Map for Harborcreek does not make allowances for those locations where existing development may already be situated. Instead, the map outlines all of the land where prime agricultural soils currently exist or had ex4sted before development. The source of this map is the Erie County Environmental Protection Plan. Mineral Resources: Within Harborcreek Township, the possibility exists for the extraction of two resources, natural gas and gravel. Natural gas is most likely to be found within two areas of Harborcreek: the northeast corner and the center of the Township. These pools are situated in such a manner that geologic formations have proven that gas production could occur. These two gas pools have proven to be economically feasible as a number of gas wells do exist within the pools in Harborcreek. However, within most of Erie County, there are few new wells due to a depressed national market. The potential for gravel extraction also exists in Harborcreek as soil types conductive to production are prevalent in several locations. There is one active gravel operation located in the center of the Township. Soil Capability for General Development: Components of the plan such as residential, commercial and industrial areas, transportation facilities, and public utilities are greatly influenced as to the extent and location of development by the basic capability of the land to support development. Slope - This is the rise and fall of the land and is measured in feet per hundred (percent) and is rated for general development as follows: Level or nearly level, 0-3% slope - excellent Gently rolling, 3-8% slope - good Rolling, 8-15% slope moderate Steep, 13-25% slope poor Very steep, 25-35% slope - unsuitable Escarpments and Steep Slopes - In general, escarpments and steep slopes are areas which range from 25 percent to vertical as a result of stream erosion. The degree of slope involved coupled with a trend of insufficient development practices have caused these areas to be considered unsuitable for general development. Floodplains - These are low-lying areas found within the numerous stream valley corridors which are prone to flooding during high water periods. These areas are considered unsuitable for general development, but can be utilized for outdoor recreational activities. Buildable Land - Soil properties affect the location, construction and maintenance of buildings. The soils are rated in terms of the degree of limitation - slight, moderate, or severe. The degree of limitation indicates the severity of problems expected to be encouraged. The ratings are for buildings of three stories or less with basements (homesites). Physical and Water Features Land utilization, to varying degrees, becomes affected by the naturally occurring physical and water features that exist within the scope of a community. Steep slopes, flood prone areas and wetlands all play a role in determining the type or extent of development that may be economically feasible.' It therefore becomes necessary 2 to look at these natural characteristics. A physical and water features map was developed to outline those natural areas that may have a direct impact on a community's growth. The source of the, accompanying Sensitive Environmental Areas Map for Harborcreek is the Erie County Environmental Protection Plan. Topographically, the Township varies in elevation from 572 feet at the Lake Erie shoreline to 1400 feet above sea level. The lower areas are primarily along the lakeplain gradually increasing in elevation to the southwestern corner of Harborcreek. This relatively consistent rise to the land generally does not cause problems for development. However, there are a number of steep slopes and escarpments located primarily along the Lake Erie shoreline and where streams have directly-cut deeply into the land. The main water feature associated with Harborcreek is of course Lake Erie and its shoreline which comprises the entire northern border of the community. The major water features in the Township are: the extensive floodplain and escarpment networks of Fourmile Creek along the western side of the Township between Lawrence Park Township and Interstate 90 known as the Wintergreen Gorge; and Sixmile Creek south of Route 20 south to the end of the Township. Smaller floodplains are located along a number of streams emptying into Lake Erie. Flood prone lands in Harborcreek Township have been determined through the use of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Federal Insurance Agency (FIA) Flood Hazard Maps and also through topographic mapping done by the United States Geological Survey (U.S.G.S.) relating to flood prone areas. These agencies have determined the 100 Year Flood Level to be the greatest flood that will occur over a 100 year period. Since development is generally considered to be unsuitable in these areas, a substantial portion of land becomes consumed. The majority of the wetlands are also located in the areas encompassed by the floodplains as this is generally characteristic of relatively low flatlands. These wetlands provide a source of water supply for the portions of Harborcreek that are not served by public water supply. Water features also play a very important role in determining the quantity and quality of water that is available to the rural portion of Harborcreek and also act as a significant part of the wildlife ecosystem. Climate Harborcreek Township has a temperate continental climate with moderate to severe winters and evenly distributed precipitation. Its weather patterns are directly influenced by the Great Lakes, predominantly Lake Erie. Based on National Weather Service figures from the Erie Weather Station, the average annual precipitation is 37.3 inches. The average annual snowfall is 100 inches with the portion of Harborcreek south of Interstate 90 being in, what has become known as, the "snowbelt" area south of Lake Erie in the tri- state region. Temperatures range from an annual average of 50 degrees Fahrenheit to a high average of 53 degrees and a low average of 38 degrees. The hottest month is July, averaging in the lower 70's, and the coldest month is February, averaging in the high 20's. 3 11 A K E MAP PRIME & UNIQUE AGRICULTURAL SOILS PRIME & UNIQUE AGRICULTURAL SOILS URBAN AREA A,,Vlqreli WOODLANDS IN AV- .7a, IN "I VL Lr 6 J23 CX T, A K E E R I E MAP SENSITIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AREAS STREAMS FLOODPLAINS LAKES, PONDS, RESERVOIRS ESCARPMENTS (-25%) WETLANDS PARKS & GAME LANDS WATERSHEDS URBAN AREA CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WOODLANDS T6 @qp- oill @41 "ALL Harbo %fp H-A . .. ... Ar.- -,op _j;, er, "77TI, TP lk CHAPTER 3 POPULATION ANALYSIS Introduction An analysis of the character, composition and distribution of population along with knowledge of household composition and educational attainment of the residents of the community are pre- requisites for any planning program. Population data helps to determine the needs of a community in relation to education, highways, housing, commerce, industry, recreation and public improvements. In addition, recent trends serve as indicators for projecting future growth and development. The study of the population is primarily concerned with future changes and as such it should be used as a base tool for local decision making. Population Composition In order to analyze the various subgroups of the population, it is important to know which groups are growing or declining. Since each group will have different needs and impacts within the community, it is necessary to study the characteristics of these sub-groups. The number of persons in each age group is constantly fluctuating. These fluctuations, which may be quite extensive in some cases, are brought about by three basic factors: births, deaths, and migration. Changes in the birth rate affect the number of persons, and the percentage of persons in the youngest age group. Although the immediate affect of birth rate changes is only on the 0-4 age group, within five years the change impacts the next age group and so on. Death rates, on the other hand, can be a factor in any of the age groups, but obviously have their major affect on the older groups. Migration, either into or out of Harborcreek Township, will affect .all age groups. Harborcreek is especially influenced by migration. The Township contains end portions of several larger demographic regions of Erie County, namely the eastern edge of the Erie Urbanized Area, the western edge of the lakeplain specialized agricultural region, and part of the northern edge of the upland general agricultural "snowbelt" region. All three regions attract different portions of the population sub-groups. The predominant change due to migration occurs in the more mobile age groups, such as young adults, first-time suburban home buyers, or those who have reached retirement age. The analysis of the Harborcreek age and gender structure is one of the more important aspects of the population study because it provides a basis for determining the makeup of the community's population in the future. This analysis will also aid in the determination of the potential labor force, school age population, requirements for needed community facilities, and future housing requirements. For example, a decrease in the school-age population may affect the size and cost of proposed school improvements. Also, an increase in the number of senior citizens would necessitate additional facilities for the elderly. All of these factors put together serve as indicators in determining the future economic, social, and cultural stability of the community. As noted previously, each age group has its own particular needs and these needs vary as individuals pass from one age group to the next. For example, the basic need for the school age population is for the provision of adequate recreational and educational facilities. These will provide ampie opportunity for social and physical development for both the individual as well as the group as a whole. Individuals in their twenties and thirties have a different set of needs. The primary need for people in this age group is for employment opportunities. A secondary need, particularly as these individuals marry and begin to raise families, is that of housing in terms of quality, income range, and size to meet varying needs and/or preferences. It should be noted that individuals in this group, as well as their families, are extremely mobile, basically in search of better employment opportunities. Middle-aged individuals comprise a more stable element within the total population. Members of this age group are more likely to be the civic leaders, political decision makers, and managers in the local economy. Their numbers and characteristics are of extreme importance to the well being of the community. The number of senior citizens in most communities has been increasing over the last two decades, particularly as a result of advances in the field of medicine. This has resulted in more people living longer. Recognition of older individuals and appropriate consideration for their needs can turn what some might consider a liability into an asset for the community. The basic needs of the people within this age group are the provision of safe and adequate housing that is proportional to their limited income level and convenient access to necessary services. Population Projections Population growth (or lack of growth) is a *basic -element of a community's comprehensive development plan. A reasonable projection of the anticipated growth in population for a community is needed in order to properly determine the nature and extent of future services that may be necessary to best accommodate a community's future requirements. Many factors completely beyond the control of the local government can also change the rate of growth such as natural disasters, quality of the local job market, overall economy of the County, and even nationa-1 recession/boom periods. These factors could produce a major alteration in the population growth potential. The effects of outside regulatory agencies will continue to have noteworthy effects on the population growth as well. Current enforcement of State on-site septic regulations have limited the construction of new homes and businesses outside the publicly served areas. Soils wi,thin the rural upland area are generally characterized by slow permeability and/or high groundwater tables, thereby making siting for on-lot septic sewage systems difficult. 2 Another factor that can affect the population growth is the availability of group water/sewer facilities. This would occur, either by the extension of public lines, or involve the construction of package treatment plants and group water well systems. Isolated systems will most likely serve clustered developments such as multi- family residential complexes, single-family subdivisions and mobile home parks in the rural area. Any such residential development using group systems in the future will contribute towards significant population increases. Demog raphic Report Due to the diverse nature of Harborcreek Township, a combination analysis of U.S. Census related socio-economic information was completed for background purposes. This "study within a study" is known as the Harborcreek Township Demographic Analysis and Population Projections Report and is located at the, end of the Background Analysis. The following research, tables and graphs pertaining to the population analysis portion are integrated within the Demographic Report. Municipal trends from 1950 to 1990 ar e analyzed and compared to neighboring municipalities and the County as a whole. The key to this analysis is an attempt to discern why changes occurred. This analysis addresses a number of factors, including natural increase, housing starts, and institutional group quarter changes. The final product is a detailed examination of why local changes occurred. Sub- municipal changes are analyzed using census track data. Social characteristics govern the nature of the community. They include a comparative analysis of generalized age profiles. When combined with gender, this age breakdown facilitates comparison to other municipalities, the County, and the State. Next, age data is examined by five-year cohorts. This is particularly valuable for understanding school, workforce, and the community service needs. .base. Race/ethnic data is examined. Changes in hou5ehold size and structure, family size and type, and group quarters are examined. Data from these sections, supplemented with Pennsylvania Health Data Center material, is then utilized to develop a series of population projections. These projections analyze how population age, fertility, and mortality could potentially combine with migration trends to show the municipality's population in 2000 and 2010. There are three population scenarios that were developed and explained. See the accompanying Appendix. 3 CHAPTER 4 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Introduction An analysis of the local economy will provide useful information necessary to understand the economic growth (or lack of it) within the community. The economic climate is analyzed through examination of present and current trends within the community as evidenced by employment and labor force data, retail, selected services, wholesale and manufacturing statistics and the status of agricultural activity. The purpose of this section is to examine where growth has occurred and to present date for the possibilities of new growth in the community. Employment Areas Traditionally, Harborcreek Township's principle economic activity had been agriculture, primarily located in the northeastern quadrant of the Township. Harborcreek is second only to North East Township in Erie County in the production of grapes. Although a large amount of land is devoted to the various fruit, crop, nursery and pasture agricultural activities in the community, a naturally small number of persons are employed in such activities. Industrial development is currently limited to a handful of establishments. The majority of Harborcreek residents, employed in manufacturing, work outside of the Township, primarily in the remainder of the Erie Urbanized Area. Of note, the largest single site for employment in Erie County is the one square mile complex of the General Electric Company located just one mile west of the northwestern border of Harborcreek. This GE Plant produces locomotives. Within Harborcreek Township, the larger industrial employment is provided by the following manufacturers: Port Erie Plastics (custom and co-injection molding) on Troupe Road; Dorries Scharmann (lathes and vertical boring mills) on Iroquois Avenue; and Thermoclad (heat fusible powders, primers and paints) on Iroquois Avenue. Commercial activity has grown substantially recently and is primarily located along Buffalo Road from Wesleyville to Hannon Road. This commercial district is anchored by three plaza complexes: Eastway, K- Mart and Giant Eagle. This portion of the Township can be considered a "full service" business district, as it now provides at least one of everything normally associated with a suburban commercial strip district. The large number of commercial businesses and services located in this area clearly indicates that far more than the residents of Harborcreek are being accommodated. The dozen closest municipalities -in Erie County and western New York extensively utilize the Harborcreek Buffalo Road commercial district as well. There is also less concentrated commercial activity on: the western portion of East Lake Road: in Harborcreek Village; and at the two Interstate 90 Interchanges. Employers An inventory of the major employers within the community gives a good indication for determining the future economic, social and cultural stability of the community. In Harborcreek Township, the following larger single site employers are primarily located in the west central and central portion of the community: Penn State-Erie (college), Giant Eagle Supermarket, K-Mart East, Brevillier Village (elderly care service), Port Erie Plastics (manufacturer), Harborcreek Junior-Senior High School, Eastside YMCA, Rolling Ridge Elementary School, Gannondale (girls care service), Erie Infants and Youth Home, Harborcreek Youth Service (boys care service), Quality Market, and Dorries Scharmann (manufacturer). A detailed description of various public and institutional employers in Harborcreek can be seen in the following Community Facilities Chapter. Through the efforts of the Township officials, an extensive inventory of employers has been assembled, and is delineated in the accompanying table, Employers and Employment in Harborcreek Township in 1994. The table includes the full range of employers in the Township from the large institutional, industrial and commercial sites down to the self-employed operating our of home sites. Of note, the number of employees listed are estimates representing the total persons that were employed for that enterprise in 1994 (multiple shi fts and locations, part-time, replaced employees, etc. included), not the average daily employment at the establishment. The table lists over 360 employers employing over 5,600 persons in 1994. Demographic Report Due to the diverse nature of Harborcreek Township, a combination analysis of U.S. Census related socio-economic information was completed for background purposes. This "study within a study" is known as the Harborcreek Township Demographic Analysis and Population Projections Report and is located at the end of the Background Analysis. The following research, tables and graphs pertaining to the economic analysis portion are integrated within the Demographic Report. This section serves as a supplement to the economic analysis. It focuses upon generalized and detailed income statistics. Both U.S. Census of 1990 and HUD low-moderate income data are utilized for comparison. The central feature of this section is local household income change from 1979 to 1989, analyzed by constant dollars or changes in the Consumer Price Index. See the accompanying Appendix. 2 EMPLOYERS AND EMPLOYMENT IN HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP-1994 Name of Employer No. of Employees A & B Screw Machine Products 2 A.J. Construction 1 Abbey's Auto Service 4 Abel Contractors 1 Akerly Concrete 2 Alex Roofing 1 Allen, Donald 2 Allison, Robert D.O. 4 AMF Management, Inc. 4 Aqualand Plus, Inc. 10 Arby's Restaurant 97 Art's Auto Service Center 3 Associated Accountants 1 Automotion Electronics 1 Automotive Paint & Supply 2 B & M Electronics 1 Bait Shop 1 Barb's Care Alot 20 Bean Construction I Beatty Diesel, Inc. 10 Beckman Brothers 11 Beckwith Machinery 29 Blaine, Bell, M.D. 17 Benetwood Corporation 4 Berkheimer Associates 1 Big Lots 46 Bigfoot Pest Control 4 Blanchfields 1 Bob's Excavating 1 Brevillier Village 184 Brinkley Trucking I Brooks Landscaping 26 Brookside Inn 3 Burger King 43 Bush Locksmith 3 Cade Electric 7 Calico Patch Shop. 1 Callahan's Beauty Shop 1 Camp Glinodo 16 Canales Tree Service 3 Card Gallery 8 Carter Lumber 22 Carter Plumbing & Heating Company 12 Cass, George 1 Cass & Cass Construction 4 Cedarcrest Chiropractic 3 China Moon Restaurant 1 China Inn 7 Christian Life Campus I Clothes Bin 5 Commonwealth of PA Liquor Store 4 3 Name of Employer No. of Employees Complete Sports I Conway & O'Malley 6 Continental Bakery 12 Corey Construction 9 Cottrell Builder 1 Country Fair #32 15 Country Fair #48 19 Country Fair #56 18 Crain Eggs 7 Cruise Connection I Czarnecki Notary 1 D & K Store 12 Dahlkempers Department Store 49 Dailey's Plumbing 1 Dale Ceramics 1 Dance Company 2 Data Track Accounting Service 1 Dave's Auto Body 2 Davis Aqua Propeller Service 4 Dee's Painting 1 Del Mar Motel 1 Ditch Witch 1 DJ's Village Dairy 13 Don's CB Sales & Service I Dorries Scharmann, Inc.(RD & D) 75 DOTS, Inc. 30 Dougan, Terrill 1 Downing Golf Course 20 Dunar's Lakeshore Feeds 2 East Erie County Emergency Communication 17 Eaglens Hardware I Early Years Learning Center 10 East Erie Moose Club #593 4 East Erie Assembly of God Church 1 Eastway Billiards 2 Eastway Twin Theatre 15 Eastway Bowling Lanes 12 Eastway Sunoco 4 Eastway Emergi-Center 12 Elite Treats Ice Cream 1 Emling Farms 1 Erie Allied Industries 25 Erie Gymnastics 11 Erie City Memorials 1 Erie Infants & Youth Home 95 Erie Fire Equipment 6 Evans Acres Tack Shed 1 Evergreen Trailer Court I Ewaik Remodeling 1 Exit 9 Sunoco Station 7 Fabin's Trailer Sales 7 Fairfield Sunoco 2 Fairfield Beer Distributor 1 Fairfield Hose Company Club 20 4 Name of Employer No. of Employees Faith Lutheran Church 3. Faith Reformed Church 1 Family Dental Care 6 Fantastic Sam's 7 Fashion Bug 27 Fellowship Baptist Church 2 Fiddle Inn 3 Finnel Farms 3 Finazzo Construction 2 Fireside Lounge 7 First Presbyterian Church 8 Fish, Attorney Burton 1 FORMU-3 of Northern Ohio 3 Fournier Construction 6 Fruit Farms, Inc. 5 Gadomski Electrical Contractor 3 GameTime 1 Gannondale 104 Ganzer Equipment 6 Gary's Superette 8 .Gas Oil Distribution System 9 Giant Eagle Supermarket 220 Grace Bible Church I Grossman's Lumber 30 Guehring Automation, Inc. I H & R Block East 9 Haircrafters 5 Hallgren, Ted 1 Harbor Care 20 Harborcreek Auto Sales I Harborcreek Baptist Church 4 Harborcreek Chamber of Commerce 2 Harborcreek Evangelical Church 1 Harborcreek Hairlines and Tanning 7 Harborcreek Manor 2 Harborcreek Sample Service I Harborcreek'School District 407 Harborcreek Shurfine 18 Harborcreek Township Government 46 Harborcreek Township Sewer Authority 4 Harborcreek Township Tax Office I Harborcreek Youth Service 97 Harcourt Insurance 3 Hedlund Insurance Broker 1 Heise Rebuilding 2 Hi Fi Hospital I Hi Tech Collision 1 Hilltop Beer Distributor 7 Hinkler Construction 3 Hinspeter Roofing I Holiday Hair 10 Hollarn Insurance 3 Holly Shop 7 Home Video Exchange 3 5 Name of Employer No. of Employees Hoover Sand & Gravel 28 Hoover Excavating 4 Hoover Trucking, Inc. 11 Huskie Auto Service I Huskie Beer Distributor 3 Innovation Design Service 2 Iron Age Corporation 2 Iroquois Medical Center 2 J. W. Sharpening 3 JAB Enterprises 17 Jackson Plumbing 3 Jackson, Ed 1 Janicki Drywall 16 Jaskiewicz, Carrie 1 Jaworek Trailer Court I jeanne's Flower Shop 2 Jemko Petroleum Equipment, Inc. 12 JoAnn Fabric 12 Johannes Chiropractor 1 Johnson Personnel Computer 10 Jones, Robert 1 Jozefczyk, Jody 1 Jud, Inc. 3 June's Hair Fashion 2 K-Mart East 197 Kaufman, Brenda I Kazmaier Contracting 1 Kegler Lounge 21 Kelly's Market 4 Kentucky Fried Chicken 35 Keystone Rehabilitation Systems 3 Kindland, Fred I Krystal Klear Ice 13 Kuholski Excavating 4 Kulisek, Kathleen 4 Kwik-Fill 35 Laidlaw Transit, Inc. 63 Lake Erie Systems 15 Lake Shore Bus, Inc. 1 Lakeshore Towing I Lake Shore Auto Body 2 Lakeside Motel 1 Lakeview Motel 2 Langdon Produce I Langdon, Mary 2 Langer, Richard I Larson Texts 60 Leech, Ronald 2 Little Caesars Pizza 24 Lochbaum Rehabilitation Center 17 Machintosh Antiques 1 Magee, Robert 1 Mainline Mechanical Contractors, Inc. 21 Malinowski, Theresa 1 6 Name of Employer No. of Employees Margosian & Sons Plumbing I Marine Bank 7 Martin's Country Clean 13 Martin's Service Station 1 Master Tech Auto Body 4 Maxwells Hobby Shop I Maynard Construciton 2 McDaniels Machinery 9 McDonald's Restaurant 112 Melody's Day Care 1 Mellon Bank North 7 Midway Inn 1 Mighty Fine Doughnuts 9 Miles Meldisco Taxes 5 Miller Travel Service 3 Mindek Brothers Fur Farm 4 Ministries To The World 16 Monroe Muffler 8 Moorhead, John 11 Moorhead Vineyards, Inc. 5 Mott, Pierre 5 Mount Saint Benedict 35 Mr. Mobile Lube 1 My Dad's Pizza 5 Myers Pl umbi ng 1 Makoski District Justice 1 National Bank of North East 9 Nelson's Farm 8 Nelson Fruit Farm 1 Newcome, Cheryl 1 New Horizon Realtors 1 Nine Hundred Ninety Variety 7 North American Compound 8 Northwest Savings Bank (Mall) 5 Northwest Savings Bank (Plaza) 9 Nutech Custom Counter Top 1 Ollinger Plumbing & Heating 21 Our Lady of Mercy Church 9 Palloto Rentals 1 Paris Company 4 Partner's Tavern 2 Patrick's Restaurant 72 Payless Shoes 8 PCA National, Inc. 6 Penn State University 730 Perkins Restaurant 138 Peters Welding 1 Piazza Horseshoeing 1 Pickway Shoes 12 Pizza Hut Restaurant 51 PNC Bank 14 Polatas, Robert 2 Pomorski Construction 1 Ponderosa Restaurant 43 7 Name of Employer No. of Employees Port Erie Plastics, Inc. 179 Prather, Edward 1 Precision Sharpening 10 Prichard, Scott 1 Prichard, Loren 4 Prischak & Godzac, Optometrist 9 Pulakos Candy 2 Putt Putt Golf 5 Qual-Krom 1 Quality Market 100 Quick Oil & Lube Center 13 Quick Photo 2 Radio Shack 5 Rag Shops, Inc. 22 Rainbow Motel 2 Randolph Masonry 9 Rathman Plumbing 7 Ravine Motel 1 Ray Norris Enterprises 2 Ray's Auto Body 1 RCR'Screw Machine 6 Reel Entertainment Video 7 Regional Health Service 13 Rex TV & Appliances 3 Richter Farms 7 Rick Heating & Air Conditioning 4 Ron's Construction 1 Rose Construction 13 S & S Rentals, Inc. 1 S.E. Erie Industrial Federal Credit Union 2 Savoia's Auto Body Shop 1 Schmitt Custom Tooling 2 Senior Citizen Home Maintenance 1 Shaffer & Son, Inc. 4 Shannon Shooting Suuplies 2 Shorehaven 10 Skateway 16 Skindell's Towing Service 1 Smith Construction 2 Snow, David 3 Snoozies Pub I Sound Trak Enterprises 1 South Haborcreek United Methodist Church 2 Sparkle Wash of Erie I Spectrum Office Products 7 Spiegel Realtors 2 Stafford Sign Systems 2 Stan's Garden Center 40 Star Tech 2 Steele, Dennis 1 Stinson Auto 1 Streicher, Donald D.D.S. 3 Suburban Container Service 4 Subway Sandwich Shop 13 8 Name of Empl oyer No. of Em P1 oyees Suddarth & Son 1 Sue's Daycare I Sul Fruit Farm 3 Suzi's Chocolates & Supplies 4 Szewczyk & Son PI umbi ng 4 Szklenski Farms 23 T-N-T Carpet Center 1 Taco Bell Restaurant 36 Taylor, Sima, Loftus 1 Tele Communications, Inc. 32 Thermoclad Company 40 Thrift Drug 10 TK's Lake Breeze Tavern I Tom Sanner's T-Prints I Tom's Tire Service 2 Tracy's Excavating 3 Travel Ports of America 11 Tresler Construction 2 Tri-County Bus Equipment 9 Tri County Intermediate Unit 14 Tri-State Metal Cleaning 2 Tupperware 7 Twinbrook Veterinary Hospital 15 U-Haul of Pennsylvania 13 Val Pak 4 Video U.S.A., Limited 24 Vip Cleaners 18 Wallywood I Waterfall Restaurant 84 Waterhouse Supply 2 Wendy''s Restaurant 73 Wheels Auto Parts 8 Whitney Farms 3 Wilczanski, Helena 2 Wintergreen Gorge Cemetery 2 Wolbert, Debra I Wolfe's Fireworks 1 Wood Farms 11 Woodring Builders 5 YMCA, Eastside 104 Young & Sons 15 Yount Alarm Systems 9 Zelazny, Edward 1 Zimmerman Tool & Equipment 1 Zukowski Photo 1 9 CHAPTER 5 HOUSING ANALYSIS Introduction The quality of housing has a definite influence on the welfare of a community and the well being of its residents. Housing is essentially the sheltering of people. It also provides a sense of place and a sense of individual and social identity. The quality of housing can command pride and respect or create an atmosphere of despair and unrest. Adequate housing is basic to our quality of life. Housing that is overcrowded, dilapidated or lacking in plumbing and other facilities does not provide a suitable living environment. Beside fulfilling the basic human needs for which it was designed, housing condition is an important factor in the general well being of a community and its tax base. This section will examine the current supply, condition and future housing needs for the community. The housing analysis is an important element in the planning process. The data gathered - here is necessary to develop goals and recommendations that will help the community to best achieve proper development patterns and adequate quality in existing and future housing units. By inventorying the housing related characteristics of the community, problems and/or needs can be identified. Correlation and analysis of the information will reveal obstacles relative to the existing and future housing situation. The findings of the housing analysis will be used toward improving and/or maintaining the quality of existing units as well as to provide for orderly development of new residential areas and structures. The statistical data for this section was gathered from U.S. Census data, and an extensive field survey undertaken by the staff of the Erie County Department of Planning and the Erie County Redevelopment Authority. Sub-municipal information is provided at the Census Tract level. See the accompanying Census Tract Map. LAST LAKE RD ILID 115.05 LAWRENCE 115.03 0 PARK UE TOWNSHIP N L w RR % % % % % % % % % % % % % % WESTERN RAILROAD WESLEYVILLE-,---,, -- ;,%%%%% hurrALO 10. BOROUGH Z. 26TH. ST. - 1.15.04 No Dt 115.06 ol Coort, REESE RD. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1990 CENSUS TRACTS ME COUNTY DEPARTMENT Or PLANNING DER ',' @E i 0 1, D Tzo, Housing Market The U.S. Bureau of the Census defines housing units as single-family homes, mobile homes, and units within housing structures (such as apartments, flats and single rooms), whether occupied or vacant but intended for occupancy. The 1990 Census revealed that there were 5,158 total housing units within Harborcreek Township. This represented an increase of 416 units over the 1980 housing supply of 4,742 units. During this same 10 year period, the Erie County housing supply increased 4.7 percent. Of the total 1990 housing supply in the Township, 5,028 units were year-round units, and 130 units were seasonal, primarily located near the Lake Erie shoreline. Of note, 62% of the housing units were located in the Erie Urbanized Area portion of Harborcreek (Census Tracts 115.03 and 115.04). The accompanying table illustrates the change in the number of housing units in Harborcreek and in Erie County as a whole from 1980 to 1990. TOTAL HOUSING UNITS 1980 AND 1990 Total Total 1980-1990 units 1980 Units 1990 % Change Harborcreek Township 4,742 5,158 +8.8 b@ Census Tract 1980 1990 115.0 1,263 115.05 1.234 115.01 TOTAL 2,308 2,497 +8.2 115.04 1,522 115.06 1.139 115.02 TOTAL 2,435 2,661 +9.3 Erie County +4.7 Source: 1990 Census, STF #3 Mobile Homes Another element of the housing supply is the availability of mobile homes and mobile home parks. In recent years, this type of dwelling. has come to play an important role in the housing supply, mainly because the cost when compared to site-built housing is lower. For this reason, this type of housing has become an'economically feasible source of housing for low, moderate and even middle income families. As illustrated in the accompanying table, the supply of mobile homes in Harborcreek increased by 37 units between 1980 and 1990. 3 MOBILE HOME SUPPLY 1980 and 1990 1980 1990 1980-1990 Total Total % Change Harborcreek Township 185 222 +20.0 by Cens s Tract 1980 1990 115.0 39 115.05 55 115.01 TOTAL 44 94 +113.6 115.04 109 115.06 19 115.02 TOTAL 141 128 -9.2 Erie County +46.9 Source: 1990 Census, STF #3 According to the 1980 Census, there were 185 mobile homes in Harborcreek. In 1993, there were 176 mobile home units. The reduction is attributed to the conversion of mobile homes to conventional housing along the Lake Erie shoreline. It can be assumed that the relative attractiveness of mobile homes to low-to- moderate income persons will increase as the cost of new conventional housing units increases. The community can expect the rate of mobile home placements to rise in the future. There are six mobile home parks within Harborcreek with a total of 128 units. The following table indicates the locations and capacity of these mobile home parks. The remaining 48 mobile homes are intermixed with conventional housing primarily located near the Lake Erie shoreline. MOBILE HOME PARKS 1994 Census Tract Existing Estimated Name of Mobile Home Park Location Units Capacity Lakeside Mobile Home Park 115.03 22 Full Bargain Mobile Home Park 115.04 7 Full Evergreen Trailer Park 115.04 17 Full Springcreek Mobile Home Park 115.04 65 Full Shorewood Trailer Park 115.05 6 Full Waite Trailer Court 115.05 11 Full Source: Erie County Assessment Bureau 4 In the past decade, design and construction techniques have significant y improved the appearance and livability of mobile homes. In fact, the newer overall sizes have made it almost impractical to move the units from place to place, leading to the improvement of the unit itself through permanent foundations and landscaping. The Township has regulations designed to keep these units and park locations up to minimum standards and in line with community housing policies. Housing Tenure and Supply In terms of tenure, the Harborcreek housing stock is predominantly owner-occupied. According to the 1990 Census, 3,948 of the total 5,158 occupied units are owner-occupied. Rental units comprise 964 units, of the total housing stock. In comparison, Erie County's supply of rental housing units is 29.3 percent. Rental housing demand could increase within the Township in future years as more families become priced out of the site built housing market. Mobile homes, modular design, and multi-family housing represent viable alternatives to this potential rental-demand. The Penn State-Erie, the Behrend College impact on rental housing should eliminate most vacancies currently existing, and naturally increase the building of new multi-family housing and the conversion of some single-family housing. There are two ways of examining the supply of housing in a community, by type and by ownership or occupancy. Occupancy is an important characteristic of the housing market within any community. The accompanying table illustrates occupancy statistics from the 1990 Census for Harborcreek. OWNER & RENTER OCCUPANCY CHARACTERISTICS 1990 Total Owner Occupancy Uaj@Ls Occupied Rental Vacant Rate Harborcreek Township 5,158 76.5% 18.7% 4.8% 95.2% by Census Tract 115.03 1,263 69.1% 28.6% 2.3% 97.7% 115.04 1,522 80.9% 15.7% 3.4% 96.6% 115.05 1,234 70.0% 19.2% 10.8% 89.2% 115.06 1,139 86.0% 11.2% 2.8% 97.2% Erie County 64.2% 29.3% 6.5% 93.5% Source: 1990 Census, STF #3 5 Housing Occupancy As a whole, the average occupancy rate within Harborcreek is 95.2 percent, which slightly exceeds the Erie County occupancy rate of 93.5 percent. These rates indicate that there is adequate housing in Harborcreek at this time. The additional population generated by Penn State-Erie, the Behrend College, who choose to live close to the facility, will be absorbed within the Township and the western adjacent three municipalities. Currently, the main concern facing Harborcreek is being prepared to accept new housing starts and the type and expense of the housing that will be built by the expansion of the Erie Urbanized Area. Of course, the options available to the Township vary by the use of land use controls and building guidelines. The level of preparedness also depends upon infrastructure, mainly public water and sanitary sewer. The Township is fortunate to have the low vacancy rate of 246 units, which shows that market conditions are receptive to absorb housing when it is available for sale or rent. Home ownership is generally viewed by many people as a beneficial condition. The popular conception that home owners have a high degree of community concern and are responsible citizens does much to promote this belief. With the except 'ion of federally subsidized housing, the general trend within Erie County has been toward an increasing rate of home ownership, and Harborcreek is definitely following this trend to an even greater degree. Housing Structure Conditions In order to determine the q uality of the existing housing stock in Harborcreek Township, a parcel by parcel field survey was conducted in mid-1994 by the Erie County Department of Planning with the Erie County Housing and Redevelopment Authority. Each dwelling structure (not each dwelling unit) within the Township was classified as follows: Sound - Housing which has no defects or only slight defects which are normally corrected during the course of regular maintenance. Examples include: - minor lack of paint maintenance - slight damage to porches or steps - small cracks in walls, foundations, or chimneys - broken gutters or drainspouts. 6 Deteriorating - Housing which needs more repair than would be provided in the course of regular maintenance. It has one or more defects of an intermediate nature that must be corrected if the dwelling unit is to continue to provide safe and adequate shelter. Such defects are signs of neglect which lead to serious structural daniage if not corrected. In addition to the minor defects associated with the sound condition, further examples of the deteriorating condition include: - shaky or unsafe foundations, porches, or steps - small holes, open cracks or missing material on walls or roof - rotted windowsills or frames - deep wear on stairs or doorsills - broken or loose stair treads or missing rail supports. Dilapidated - Housing which does not provide safe or adequate shelter. It has one or more critical defects or has a combination of intermediate defects in sufficient number to require extensive repair or rebuilding. Critical defects are those which indicate continued neglect and serious damage to the structure. Inadequate original construction would also cause a structure to be listed as dilapidated. This includes structures built of makeshift materials and inadequately converted cellars, or garages not originally intended for living quarters. In addition to the serious defects associated with the deteriorating condition, further examples of the dilapidated condition include: - large holes, open cracks, or missing material on walls or roof - structural sag in the walls or roof. The condition of each structure is classified on the basis of a visual exterior survey of the current situation and projected through to five years in the future. No evaluation was made of interior deficiencies such as plumbing, heating, wiring or other conditions which in themselves could pose health and safety hazards. The final results of the survey are tabulated in the accompanying table. HOUSING STRUCTURE CONDITION SURVEY 1994 (EXTERNAL FEATURES) Structures Sound Deteriorating Dilapidated Harborcreek 5,056 82.0% 16.7% 1.3% Township Source: Erie County Planning Department and Redevelopment Authority 1994 Field Survey 7 This survey indicates that 4,146 housing structures in Harborcreek are in sound condition, 842 are deteriorating, and only 67 are dilapidated. Of note, even though a building is deemed to be in sound condition, it does not mean that no cost is involved in maintaining it. The individual housing surveys indicated that up to $1,000 may be needed to be spent within the next 5 years on the average "sound" housing structure in Harborcreek to keep the structures in sound condition. For deteriorating housing structures, an average cost could be four times higher than that to bring them up to sound condition. This indicates that the community may need to consider minimum code standards in order to prevent blighted areas from occurring in the future. Housing Units Per Structure The accompanying table depicts housing units by the number of units in each structure. When looking at direct Harborcreek Township comparisons with Erie County, the Township falls below County* averages for*structures which have two or more units. This indicates a need to provide more varied housing types as an alternative to the standard detached single family home. HOUSING UNITS IN STRUCTURE 1990 *5 or Total *1 *2 *3&4 More Units Unit Units Units Units Other Harborcreek 5,158 86.0% 3.2% 1.5% 7.4% 2.2% Township by Census Tract 115.03 1,263 71.9% 1.4% 0.6% 20.3% 5.8% 115.04 1,522 91.6% 4.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.9% 115.05 1,234 84.7% 3.6% 2.3% 6.7% 2.7% 115.06 1,139 93.8% 4.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% Erie County 72.2% 11.1% 5.7% 9.8% 1.2% Units in structures that contain ... Housing units in commercial or institutional structures. Source: 1990 Census, STF #3 Single family units continue to dominate the housing market in the suburban and rural areas of Erie County. However, multi-unit dwellings should become more prevalent as costs in the housing industry and private on-site utilities continue to rise outside the public service areas. The most predominant type of housing available within Harborcreek Township is -single family dwellings, including mobile homes. According to 1990 Census figures, 4,434 units of the total housing stock are categorized as one unit structures in the Township. In comparison, only 72.2 perce 'nt of the County's housing stock is classified as single family dwellings. 946 units of the total housing stock in the Township are multi-unit structures. 8 Housing Age The age of housing within the community can often be an indicator of housing conditions. Generally, a community which has a large percentage of old homes can expect to have a higher blight rate than a community in which most of the housing is relatively new. However, there are many exceptions to this assumption. Therefore, each municipality must be reviewed in light of its actual housing conditions. HOUSING AGE 1939-1989 1939 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 & to to to to to Older 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 Harborcreek 13.5% 13.7% 20.7% 12.7% 24.3% 15.1% Township by Census Tract 115.03 4.8% 6.9% 13.5% 15.2% 39.4% 20.1% 115.04 10.1% 13.6% 23.7% 11.3% 30.1% 11.2% 115.05 23.4% 16.9% 27.3% 11.8% 8.3% 12.3% 115.06 17.0% 17.8% 17.4% 13.0% 17.2% 17.6% Erie County 32.3% 11.1% 15.4% 11.0% 18.5% 11.5% Source: 1990 Census, STF #3 Housing Need Housing need is determined by utilizing the population and persons per household figures from the accompanying Harborcreek Demographic Analysis and Population Projections Report. If the "most likely" population projections from that Report are realized, then 800 new households will be accommodated in Harborcreek in some form of housing by the year, 2000, and 750 more households by the year 2010. 9 CHAPTER 6 LAND USE ANALYSIS Introduction part of any comprehensive plan is the survey, analysis, An important and study of the land use patterns wbich exist within the community. Without a thorough knowledge of the existing land use patterns and how they developed, it is nearly impossible to plan for the future use of the land, and to properly develop achievable goals and a valid plan of action. It is important to remember that land use decisions are nearly always irreversible. Once residential land is developed for commercial or industrial use, it is seldom changed back to its prior use. Likewise, farm land which is used for residential purposes will probably never revert back to an agricultural use. In order to develop a realistic land use plan of alternative land uses for the community, existing patterns must first be determined. The existing uses will partially guide the formation of land use districts and become a foundation for future development. This section provides an overview of the existing land use patterns in the community and forms a visual baseline for future planning efforts. As is traditional in physical planning, new community-wide base and property line maps were developed to delineate the land use information collected. Utilizing the new maps, an extensive visual land use field survey of all structures, facilities and lands was conducted in the third quarter of 1994 in Harborcreek Township. Detailed parcel by parcel land uses were then delineated on 17 large scale property maps corresponding to aerial orthophotos covering the entire Township. For the purpose of this study, a small scale composite was then completed and can be seen as the accompanying Generalized Present Land Use Map. Classifications The following land use classifications are utilized in this section and throughout the Background Analysis: Single Family Residential - This classification denotes land used for single family detached dwellings. Other Resident'lal - This classification includes land used for housing structures for more than one family, and includes single- family attached dwellings (such as duplexes, townhouses and condominiums), apartment buildings, and similar uses. Institutional - This classification includes facilities that provide mental, spiritual, and physical development, but does not include facilities which are basically recreational in nature. Included are government buildings and facilities, schools and colleges, places of worship, libraries, hospitals, cemeteries, fire and police stations, and similar uses. Recreational - This classification denotes land which is used or set aside for use as playgrounds, parks, outdoor sport areas, and similar uses. It also includes Pennsylvania Game Lands. Commercial - This classification refers to land used for the purpose of supplying commodities or services to the general public. Included are uses relating to both retail and wholesale trade, professional and personal services, general office facilities, sales and service, entertainment, restaurants, motels or hotels, and similar uses. Industrial - This classification denotes land which contains facilities for the mechanical or chemical transformation of substances into new products. This includes manufacturing, processing, packaging, storage, warehousing, power plants, treatment or filtration plants, research laboratories, and similar uses. Agricultural - This classification includes land which is used for the cultivation of fruits, crops, grazing of livestock, or the growing of nursery and forest products. Open Space - This designation refers to areas of land'with no active current use. Open space includes streams, wetlands, brushland, woodland, steep slopes, and idle land suitable for crops or development. Land Use Patterns When compared to the last extensive land use analysis completed in 1980, the current basic land use patterns for Harborcreek are essentially the same even to this day. On the surface, a highly similar pattern scenario seems to conflict with the high level of present residential development (and to a lesser extent commercial) activity that is occurring in quite a number of locations in the Township concurrently at this,time. The primary development influences at work in Harborcreek today have been firmly established. The strong influences of soils, topography and climate (described and mged in the previous Physical Features Chapter), together with the emp oyment areas and employers (described in the previous Economic Analysis Chapter), together with an active agricultural community seeking to preserve itself (see the accompanying Protected Agricultural Lands Map) have combined to lay out a distinctive and resilient land use pattern. This pattern in the Township is present regardless of population/economic growth or decline periods (unlike many other areas of Erie County). .These basic land use patterns are: the Erie Urbanized Area is pressuring expansion into western Harborcreek; the agricultural industry is solidifying its area in the eastern portion of the Township; and the cottage development area along the Lake Erie shoreline is converting from seasonal and scattered housing to more permanent and concentrated uses. Essentially what is being witnessed today in Harborcreek comes down to a matter of timing. It is now Harborcreek's "turn" for development activity that, up until recently, was going to other portions of the Erie Urbanized Area and Lake shore. H a r b o r c r e e k T o w n s h p GENERALIZED,PRESENT LAND USE AS OF OCTOBER 1994 OPEN WOODED VACANT "All SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL OTHER RESIDENTIAL RECREATIONAL INSTITUTIONAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL AGRICULTURAL IJ ic 7 ly" ,zv@. ffm 11 am OQ k!'X K U12i SCALE - I Inch 3350 Fevi H a r b o r c r e e k T o w n s h p PROTECTED AGRICULTURAL LANDS AS OF DECEMBER 1994 AGRICULTURAL SECURITY AREA PARCELS CLEAN & GREEN PARCELS tit BOTH TYPES lu omm) E SCALE I Inch 3350 Feel CHAPTER 7 TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS Introduction An efficient land transportation system is critical to the maintaining and improving of the quality of life of a community. The future development of Harborcreek Township must be properly managed through the implementation of a practical transportation plan. A carefully planned and maintained system of roads and highways is necessary in order to ensure the efficient and safe movement of persons, products and services to their respective destinations. The ease and efficiency by which traffic is able to move through and within Harborcreek Township affects the immediate concern for life and property as well as the economic development of the region. The development of an adequate and sustainable transportation system should, therefore, be considered to be a critical priority for Harborcreek Township. Pursuant to this objective, a detailed inventory has been completed of the Township's transportation system. Included in the inventory are roadway classifications, traffic volumes and current and pending maintenance and improvement projects and programs. The inventory facilitates the identification and analysis of transportation-related concerns throughout the Township, Highway 5ystem The highway system in Harborcreek Township play a vital role in the economic stability of the community. Residents must have access to employment opportunities, commercial and residential districts, and recreation areas. The highway system throughout the Township may be analyzed by classifying the various roads according to usage. The categorizing of the highway system in the Harborcreek Township is based on the Federal concept of functional classification which is the process by which roads, streets and highways are grouped into classes, according to the character of the service (not necessarily volume) that they provide. Also basic to functional classification is the concept of the proportion of a road that serves traffic mobility versus land access; the higher the mobility, the higher the classification. The official Erie County highway system is known as the Functional Classification System, which was updated in 1993 statewide by PennDOT. The highway system of Harborcreek is divided into five classes which are described below: Principal Arterial - This class of highways is devoted primarily to traffic movement (high mobility) and performs little land service function. These expressways are characterized by a high degree of access control. Expressways accommodate large volumes of traffic and are primarily intended to serve trips of some distance through the tri-state region. Minor Arterial - This class of highways brings traffic to and from the expressways and from a significant number of urban and suburban areas. These roads serve those major traffic movements predominantly through, as well as within, Harborcreek not served by the expressways. Minor arterials mainly serve to move traffic, but serve an incidental land service function. Major Collector - This class of highways serves a middling function within the highway network. These roads serve both traffic movement and land service. Major collectors receive traffic from lesser streets as well as provide interconnection and support to minor arterials. They generally connect Harborcreek with the immediately surrounding area. Minor Collector - This class of streets serves the internal movement of the highway network. This classification does not generally handle through trips, but supplies abutting property with access, while at the same time providing local traffic movement. Local - The primary function of this classification is to provide direct access to immediately adjacent land. These roads carry a small proportion of the vehicle miles of travel but make up a large percentage of the total street mileage within Harborcreek. The primary transportation routes in and through Harborcreek Township are Interstate 90, Station Road from Interstate 90 to the Wesleyville Borough municipal boundary, and Buffalo Road from the Wesleyville Borough municipal boundary to Hannon Road. The accompanying Table shows the classification of all State and local roads in the Township. See the accompanying Highway System Map. Traffic Volumes The utilization of, or traffic demand on, a road is measured in terms of average daily traffic (ADT) volume. The ADT represents the number of vehicles traveling on a given roadway segment over an averaged 24 hour period. It is critical to maintain an inventory of current traffic volumes on the highway system to evaluate both existing and projected needs. Both the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) and the Erie County Department of Planning are involved in the acquisition of traffic volume data. Actual field data are obtained by using portable traffic counters. Additionally, computer models may be used to generate projected traffic volumes by anticipating future development conditions. See the accompanying Traffic Volumes Table and Map. 2 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HIGHWAY SYSTEM CLASSIFICATION ROAD NAME FROM TO Principal Arterial Interstate 90 Greene Twp. Greenfield Twp. Station Rd. Wesleyville Interstate 90 Buffalo Rd. Wesleyville Hannon Rd. Minor Arterial Station Rd. Interstate 90 Greenfield Twp. Buffalo Rd. Hannon Rd. North East Twp. East Lake Rd. Lawrence Park Troupe Rd. Iroquois Ave. Lawrence Park Buffalo Rd. Depot Rd. Buffalo Rd. Interstate 90 E. 38th St. Shannon Rd. City of Erie Hannon Rd. Station Rd. Buffalo Rd. WElbridge Rd. Buffalo Rd. East Lake Rd. Nagle Rd. Station Rd. Buffalo Rd. Shannon Rd. Norcross Rd. Wesleyville Norcross Rd. Shannon Rd. Millcreek Twp. Major Collector East Lake Rd. Troupe Rd. North East Twp. Depot Rd. Interstate 90 Station Rd. Kuhl Rd. Station Rd. Greene Twp. Reese Rd. Station Rd. Hannon Rd. Cooper Rd. Shannon Rd. Station Rd. Saltsman Rd. Station Rd. Buffalo Rd Ridge Parkway Nagle Rd. Hannon Rd. Nagle Rd. Buffalo Rd. East Lake Rd. Boyer Rd. Iroquois Ave. East Lake Rd. Troupe Rd. Iroquois Ave. East Lake Rd. Krtlett Rd. Buffalo Rd. East Lake Rd. Minor Collector Wales Rd. Station Rd. Greene Twp. Moorheadville Rd. East Lake Rd. Moorheadville Rd. Clark Rd. Depot Rd. Buffalo Rd. Davison Rd. Depot Rd. Buffalo Rd. Belle Rd. Depot Rd. North East Twp. NOTE: All roads not listed above are classified as Local Roads. 3 I TRAFFIC VOLUMES TABLE I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 4 - I Road Mileage The Harborcreek Tclwnship highway system consists of 119.13 miles of public roads. This figure may be further broken down as 80.30 miles of Township-owned roadways and 38.83 miles of highway owned by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The Township Officials have accepted road dedications from new developments over the past several years. It is anticipated that with the projected future growth will come new roads and rights-of-way. Signing and Signalization Basic to the safety and convenience of the traveling public using the transportation system is the proper signing and signalization provided throughout the system. Various signs, such as speed limit, advisory, street name, directional, etc., and traffic signals (fixed time signals and flashing beacons) are located throughout the Township to accommodate site-specific concerns. See the accompanyinq Signalization Map. At the present time there are eight (8) intersections controlled by a fixed time traffic signal. These intersections are as follows: -Buffalo Road at Eastway Plaza West Entrance/Eastway Lanes -Buffalo Road at Nagle Road -Buffalo Road at Giant Eagle Plaza Entrance/Cook Avenue -Buffalo Road at Saltsman Road -Buffalo Road at Walbridge Road -Station Road at Saltsman Road -East Lake Road at Nagle Road -Iroquois Avenue at Walbridge Road Flashing beacon signals are located at the following seven (7) intersections: -Buffalo Road at Depot Road -Buffalo Road at Iroquois Avenue -Buffalo Road at Bartlett Road -East Lake Ro&d at Lowry Road -East Lake Road at Walbridge Road -East Lake Road at Bartlett Road -Shannon Road at E. 38th Street/Cooper Road Also basic to the convenience and efficiency at which motorists travel is the posting of street name signs. Harborcreek Township maintains a uniform street name sign program whereby all State and local roadways are properly posted. There are five (5) at grade railroad crossings in Harborcreek Township. There is a. great disparity between the types of signing and signalization at these crossings. The at-grade railroad crossings of King and Shannon Roads are simply signed, which have no signals and no gates. The crossings located on Davison, Moorheadville and Walbridge Roads are properly signed with signals and gates. It should be noted that the former at-grade railroad crossing at Nagle Road remains closed to traffic by order of the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. Pending Improvement Projects Harborcreek Township, as well as the County of Erie, has an organized program to identify, prioritize and implement transportation improvements. The local Metropolitan Planning Organization recognized by PennDOT is known as the Erie Area Transportation Study (EATS) Committee. The EATS Committee assembles to represent and prioritize the transportation needs of Erie County. On a Statewide .basis, PennDOT maintains a Twelve Year Highway and Bridge Program which is the planning tool for State and local transportation projects. The Twelve Year Program may be viewed as a needs list which is updated on a biannual cycle. Projects appearing on the current Twelve Year Program which will have an impact upon transportation in Harborcreek Township are as follows: Project Name Description East Side Access Study Design and construction Port Access Road to 1-90 of new 4 lane highway Station Road Widen existing highway to Interstate 90 to Buffalo Road 24 feet Station Road: Behrend Design and construction of Jordan Road - Behrend Campus turning land Depot Road Widen existing highway to Interstate 90 to Buffalo Road 24 feet East Lake Road Bridge Design and construction of Over ElliOtt5 Creek bridge replacement Southern Tier Expressway Design and construction of Interstate 90 to Route 89 additional 2 lanes U.S. Route 20 Bridge Design and construction of Over Sevenmile Creek bridge replacement Buffalo Road Design and construction of Knoll Avenue to Clark Road turning lane Lawrence Parkway Reconstruct to 36 feet Buffalo Road to East Lake Road Shannon and Cooper Roads Design and construction of Road Intersection turning lanes Boyer Road Bridge Design and construction Over Sixmile Creek of bridge replacement Depot Street Bridge Design and construction of Over Sevenmile Creek bridge replacement Bartlett Road Bridge Design and construction of Over Sevenmile Creek Branch bridge replacement 6 Roadway Maintenance Roadway maintenance programs, both typical summer and winter maintenance, are implemented by PennDOT and Harborcreek Township personnel. PennDOT is responsible for the proper maintenance of Interstate 90 and all State-owned highways located in Harborcreek Township. These duties are managed from PennDOT's Erie County Maintenance garage on State Route 89 in North East Township. Harborcreek Township maintains the local roadway system with its municipal employees. All equipment and materials necessary are located at the Harborcreek Township garage adjacent to the Municipal Building on Buffalo Road. During the spring and summer months, the Township Officials place an emphasis on drainage and roadway maintenance. Typical projects would consist of storm sewer and drainage related construction, bituminous seal coating and &sphalt paving. Harborcreek Township has eliminated all unimproved local roads (e.g. gravelled roads) in favor of bituminous and concrete pavements. The bituminous pavements (i.e. bituminous seal coat and asphalt) require more frequent maintenance, although the maintenance required on concrete pavements would be more extensive. During the autumn months, Harborcreek Township performs a variety of preventative maintenance activities. Leaves and yard wastes are collected as a service to residents. This service also tends to minimize the maintenance effort required to keep the storm sewers and drainage ditches free from debris. Additionally, materials are stockpiled and all winter maintenance equipment is inspected and prepared for service. Winter maintenance activities typically consist of snow removal and related safety enhancements (e.g. spreading of salt and anti-skid materials). Harborcreek Township personnel are responsible for winter maintenance of all Township roads and a number of State-owned highways in accordance with contracts between the Township and PennDOT. Additionally, Harborcreek Township provides winter maintenance on roadways located within new developments which will eventually be dedicated to the Township. Harborcreek Township is not obligated to provide winter maintenance on State-owned or new development roads. However, the Township Officials believe that residents are entitled to a high level of service which, in these cases, is best provided by the Township. Mass Transit The Erie Metropolitan Transit Authority (EMTA) provides bus service to the western portion of Harborcreek Township. EMTA has experimented over the years with various routes and schedule adjustment in order to maximize service and, ultimately ridership. 7 The bus service provided by the EMTA appears to be adequate at this time. High demand regions of the Township are presently served. Examples of these areas include Penn State-Erie, The Behrend College; Buffalo Road commercial district; Brookside community; Harborcreek Mall; Ball Pavillion: Benetwood Apartments and the Eastside YMCA. The LIFT Service "The LIFT" program is the name of the County's shared ride advance request transportation system for eligible persons living beyond the bus routes or who are unable to take advantage of its regularly scheduled service. Transportation services are provided under contract to the County's Department of Human Services by Erie Transportation Services. The vehicles under this program are marked "The LIFT" and/or "Erie Yellow Cab." All vehicles have disability accessibility and can accommodate most, if not all, accessibility devices. Services provided by "The Lift" are available to all organizations and residents of the County and are available Monday through Friday from 6:30 AM until 5:30 PM, except holidays. Hours may be extended if there is adequate demand. Air Service Full commercial air service is provided at the Erie International Airport which is a small hub airport located in the western portion of the Erie Urbanized Area. The highway travel distance from the center of Harborcreek Township to the Airport terminal is approximately 15 miles. Erie International Airport is the major airport serving northwestern Pennsylvania and the immediately adjacent counties in New York and Ohio. Rail Syste As can be seen on the accompanying Rail Systems Map, Harborcreek Township has within its boundaries four railroad rights-of-way. Three of these are parallel to one another in a corridor running east and west adjacent to U.S. Route 20. The fourth right-of-way is located in the southwestern portion of the Township adjacent to Millcreek Township and the City of Erie. The east-west rail corridor contains the main line freight and passenger trackage of the Conrail Railroad and the main line freight track of the Norfolk Southern Railroad. These two lines pass through the entirety of Erie County and continue on to cities such as Buffalo, New York and Cleveland, Ohio. Also included in the corridor is the East Erie Commercial Railroad which begins in Lawrence Park Township and dead ends just east of Troupe Road in the Township. This line is utilized primarily for testing locomotives and mass transit cars manufactured at the General Electric Plant in Lawrence Park Township. A fourth line located in the southwestern portion of the Township, is a small portion of the north-south Allegheny Railroad track which connects bayfront facilities in the City of Erie to Union City Borough and the City of Corry in the southeastern portion of Erie County and beyond. 8 Although substantial trackage lays within Harborcreek Township, there is practically no on-site rail service provided at this time. There are no sidings currently in use in the Township. This situation relegates the Township to a mere custodian of a number of railroad tracks which inherently interfere with the convenience and safety of the highway system. Thus, the Township has not had the opportunity to take advantage of any of the economic amenities that these several rail systems could provide. Included on the Rail Systems Map are the locations of all the at- grade rail crossings. There are nine locations wfiere the rail lines intersect with the highway system within the Township. They are: Shannon Road with a single track crossing; and Walbridge, Davison, King and Moorheadville Roads. The spacing of the two sets of track is pronounced enough at the latter four roads that two separate at- grade crossings actually occur at each of these locations. 9 HIGHWAY SYSTEM STATE FUNCTIONAL CLASSIFICATION PRINCIPAL ARTERIAL MINOR ARTERIAL URBAN/MAJOR COLLECTOR MINOR COLLECTOR I SIGNALIZATION AND RAIL SYSTEMS MAP I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 11 - . I CHAPTER 8 COMMUNITY FACILITIES Introduction Community facilities are those services and institutions whose primary purpose is to satisfy the basic physical and social community needs that fall under the direct or indirect auspices of local government. Communities depend upon these services which are necessary for the continued comfort, convenience, social welfare and protection of life and property. The character of a community and the nature of future land development is determined to a large degree by the availability and adequacy of community facilities. These facilities ordinarily involve substantial expenditures of public funds and are intended for public use and benefit. These facilities may include buildings, equipment and services in educational institutions, health services, police and fire protection, recreational facilities, libraries, solid waste and a number of other facilities required for appropriate living conditions. In fact, the demand for more and better public facilities and services is commonplace today. Local governments are increasingly being pressured to expand and improve their public facilities and services. The effects of growing demand and increased use are clear. Existing facilities and services are heavily strained and local governments are hard pressed to keep pace with the new demands. This section will inventory and evaluate existing community facilities for adequacy in meeting present needs and probable future effectiveness in achieving the facilities' intended purposes. Included at the end of this Chapter is the Ownership Patterns Map for Harborcreek Township. The map indicates property owned by various community facilities discussed in this Chapter, and the property owned by the public utilities discussed in the following Chapter of this study. This map differs from the map in the Land Use Chapter which indicates the amount of property being utilized for public and institutional purposes at this time. Schools Harborcreek School District: The Harborcreek Township School District currently operates and maintains three elementary school and a combined junior-senior high school. Due to the large land area which the Township encompasses, nearly all of the students are bused to school. The present school property tax is assessed at 115.5 mills. A $15.00 per capita tax is also levied, $10.00 of which goes to the school district. The school district also receives 50% of Harborcreek Township's 1.0% income tax, and 50% of the Township's $10.00 Occupational Privilege Tax. The buildings which comprise the physical plant of the Harborcreek Township School District are all adequate for current needs. Additional information concerning the adequacy and life span of the various district schools will follow as each individual schcol is discussed. Klein Elementary School - Built in 1954 with substantial renovations and additions made in 1965 and again in 1990, Klein School is one of the older schools in the Harborcreek Township School District. It is a one story brick building located on East Lake Road and houses grades Kindergarten through six. Current enrollment for the 1994-95 school year is 489 pupils, and the school is adequate in size for present use as the capacity is 600 pupils. The building is considered to be in good physical condition. Eighteen (18) classrooms, in addition to administrative facilities, a kitchen, library, faculty room, several storage rooms, and a speech and reading room are contained in Klein School. The 12.5 acre site, of which five acres are utilized for recreational purposes, allows sufficient room for additional expansion. Klein School currently maintains a staff of 37. Clark Elementary School - Located on Depot Road in the central portion of the Township, Clark School is one of the newer school district facilities. The one story brick building was constructed in 1960, expanded in 1968 and renovated in 1990. Like Klein School, it also includes grades Kindergarten through six. This school is in very good physical condition. Recreational facilities (including playground equipment) comprise two acres of the 14.1 acre site, and ample space for further expansion of the school is available. The 1994-95 enrollment is 338 which is significantly under the school's present capacity of 438 pupils. In addition to 113 regular classrooms, Clark School also provide a kindergarten room, administrative rooms, a kitchen, medical suite, multi-purpose rooms, library, combined music/art room, faculty room, art storage, general storage and book storage, as well as a seminar and elementary curriculum room. Clark School currently employs a total of 32 people. Rolling Ridge School - Situated on approximately 60 acres of land on Ridge Parkway in the western portion of Harborcreek Township. Opened for use in the Fall of 1970, it is the newest elementary school facility maintained by the school district. In addition to 26 regular classrooms, the school also houses six.small seminar rooms, a library, cafeteria, gymnasium, a large group instruction room which seats approximately 150 students, as well as faculty rooms, health services facilities and administrative offices. The school is considered to be in excellent condition. Rolling Ridge School currently employs 48 people. The approximate capacity of 840 students allows some room for growth in that the current school year enrollment is 562 pupils. Of the total site acreage, approximately four acres is devoted to recreational use consisting of playground facilities and open space. 2 Junior-Senior High School - The Harborcreek Township Junior-Senior High School is a brick structure located on Buffalo road and Depot Road. Originally constructed in 1941, additions and one building replacement have enlarged and modernized the facility. The first two additions were completed in 1952 and 1959. In 1973, an addition was constructed, adding approximately 15 classrooms as well as a swimming pool, a remedial gymnasium, a large group instruction room and a new cafeteria in addition to enlarging and improving other miscellaneous facilities. In 1991 the section housing the Junior High School was demolished and replaced. The school now includes, in addition to the above, 25 classrooms, a 900 seat auditorium, a double gymnasium, a library, administrative offices, guidance and counseling offices, faculty rooms, storage rooms, nurses facilities, agricultural, wood and metal shops, home economic facilities, a commercial suite, science laboratories, arts and crafts facilities, and music and drivers education rooms. Twenty acres of the 40 acre site are devoted to recreational use with football, baseball and track fields being the dominant facilities. The present 1994-95 enrollment is 1,369 students which is well below the building's present capacity of 2,575 students. One hundred and twenty-nine employees, or more than one-half of all the school district's 246 employees, work at the Junior-Senior High School. Enrollment Trends: From the 1979-80 school year to the present, as depicted on the accompanying graph, "School Enrollment Trends," Harborcreek Township School District enrollment has decreased by just over 300 students. As may be noted from the above-mentioned chart, total enrollment decreased relatively rapidly from the 1979-80 school year to the 1982- 83 school year. From the 1982-83 school year to the 1984-85 school year, the downward trend slowed significantly, only to accelerate downward by 90 students in the 1985-86 school year. Since that time, enrollment has been fairly stable, with an increase of approximately 140 students by the 1994-95 school year. 3 I HARBORCREEK SCHOOL DISTRICT ENROLLMENT TRENDS TABLE I I I I I I I I - I I I I I I I - I I - 4 - I Other Educational Facilities: Although not under local school district control, there are other school facilities within Harborcreek Township which deserve mention in this section of the plan. Harborcreek Youth Services and Gannondale School for Girls - Located on Iroquois Avenue and East Lake Road respectively, these school are maintained under the auspices of the Catholic Diocese of Erie. They are residential treatment centers for court-referred juveniles and provide a variety of services designed to aid residents in coping more effectively with living in the community. There are currently 60 boys participating in the on-grounds residential living program at Harborcreek and approximately 60 more are located in small group homes throughout Erie county. The capacity of the school is 137 boys. The Gannondale School for Girls currently has 45 girls participating in the residential program and is the only facility of its type in the Township. Daycare and Preschool Centers: The accompanying list shows the names and addresses of the five daycare/preschool centers which are located within Harborcreek Township. These centers can accept a total of 340-350 infants and children ranging from 6 weeks to 12 years of age. Harbor Care Christian Child Care Center 7895 Buffalo Road Harborcreek, PA 16421 75 children, 6 weeks-12 years, daycare & preschool Early Years Learning Center 4403 Iroquois Avenue Erie, PA 16511 40-50 children, 6 weeks-6th grade, daycare & preschool Barb's Care Alot Day Care 5163 Buffa-lo Road Erie, PA 16510 65 children, 6 weeks-12 years, daycare & preschool, security system YMCA Eastside Family Branch 2101 Nagle Road Erie, PA 16510 40 children, 6 weeks-6th grade, daycare & preschool, summer program Penn State Behrend Child Care Center Station Road Erie, PA 16510 120 children. 6 weeks-6 years, daycare & preschool 5 Technical Schools: There are a number of technical schools in Erie County offering practical courses of study in such diverse areas as welding, women's and men's hair styling, barbering, photography, mechanical repair and drafting courses. Nursing, business, secretarial and computer courses are also offered at the technical schools. Universities and Colleges: There are a number of Universities and Colleges located in Erie County: Gannon University, City of Erie; Mercyhurst College, City of Erie with a branch in North East Township: Edinboro University of Pennsylvania, Edinboro Borough with a branch in Millcreek Township; and the Behrend College of Penn State University in Harborcreek Township. The following is a brief history and general description of the Behrend College taken from a recent Penn State University course catalogue. Penn State Erie, The Behrend College, is a four-year and graduate college of Penn State. The College's campus was donated to the University in 19A8 by Mary Behrend in memory of her husband, Ernst, co-founder (with his father and brother) of the Hammermill Paper Company, now a part of International Paper. In donating her family's Glenhill Farm Estate to Penn State, Mrs. Behrend was responding to the need, expressed by a committee of prominent Erie residents, for a public, coeducational, non-sectarian university presence in Erie. In 1948, 152 students enrolled at what was known as The Behrend Center. Those first students could complete only their freshman year at the Center. When Penn State reorganized in 1959, the Commonwealth Campus System was established and The Behrend Center became The Behrend Campus of Penn State. Both the enrollments and the physical expanse of the campus grew throughout the 1960's and early 1970's. By 1971, over 1,200 students were enrolled. On January 20, 1973, the Penn State Board of Trustees granted four- year college and graduate status to Penn State-Behrend. With that decision, Penn State-Behrend became the first Penn State campus outside of Univers@ty Park to achieve such status. Today, 3,100 students attend classes in original buildings from the Glenhill Farm Estate and in the more recently constructed academic buildings. Over 1,100 students are now housed in residence halls and student apartments on campus, The College offers baccalaureate and associate degrees in business, engineering, the humanities, the social sciences, science and engineering technology, as well as the Penn State MBA program and other special topics graduate courses. Penn State-Behrend awards honors degrees to students who have successfully completed the requirements of the University Scholars Program. Penn State's University-wide honors program. 6 Penn State-Behrend has recorded increasing enrollments for 23 semesters and is continuing to expand its facilities. An $11 million library/academic building and an engineering and engineering technology laboratory complex are the newest additions to the campus. Recreation Harborcreek Township residents are fortunate to have a number of recreational facilities provided by the Township and the school district. Many of these facilities are used by both students and members of the community. One excellent park facility known as the Harborcreek Community Park is located just south of the Municipal Building. A detailed inventory of facilities for this park and the other parks is listed at the end of this section. Harborcreek Community Park supports a very large amount of warm weather activity for youth and adults, as well as a number of other organized activities such as the four day long Harborfest festival, sponsored by the Harborcreek Area Chamber of Commerce. A sampling of organized activities is listed below: - Little League baseball and softball programs for 800 boys and girls: - Youth and adult soccer programs; - Softball and soccer clinics; Local church softball leagues; - Hosts the Lakeshore Modified Adult American Softball Association (ASA) Approved Softball League (the largest ASA approved softball league in Pennsylvania): - Tri-Community Little Gridders Football Program in conjunction with Lawrence Park Township and Wesleyville Borough; - Boy Scout camp outings; - Harborcreek Fire Department activities. In addition to Harborcreek Community Park, Harborcreek Township owns and maintains three other parks: Whitford Park on Iroquois Avenue in the vicinity of Sixmile Creek; Rolling Ridge Park at Tanglewood and Brierwood Roads in the west central portion of the Township: and Slade Road Ball Park which is located approximately 1.5 miles west of North East Township. One Erie County Park, Sixmile Creek Park, is located within the Township. Wesleyville Borough also owns Memorial Park which is adjacent to the Borough in the western portion of Harborcreek Township. This park is a 4.5 acre parcel which contains playground facilities and a general purpose field. in addition, the City of Erie maintains Downing Golf Course, a 195 acre, 18 hole golf course, between East Lake Road and Iroquois Avenue along Troupe Road in the north central portion of the Township. The Slade Road Ball Park ball fields, which are located in the eastern portion of the Township, are maintained by Harborcreek for use by Township residents. 7 The Eastside YMCA, which is located at 2101 Nagle Road, was constructed in 1976. This facility has two gymnasiums, an indoor track, a sauna and wfiirlpool, baseball equipment, exercise equipment, and two indoor pools which were constructed in 1989. The YMCA property, wfiich consists of 21 acres, adjoins the Tri-Community Pool facility. This facility consists of two outdoor pools, and is managed by YMCA staff. The Tri@Community Pool facility is a joint cooperative venture between Harborcreek Township, Lawrence Park Township and Wesleyville Borough. Management of this facility, along with an increase in regular YMCA activities over the years, has boosted current employment to 21 full-time and 91 part-time ,employees, up from 3 full-time and 29 part-time employees in 1980. Present membership is approximately 7,400, while in 1980 the membership figure was 5,800. In addition to the above-mentioned public facilities, there are also many private or semi-private recreational areas in Harborcreek Township. Behrend College utilizes a portion of its 420 acre site for recreational facilities which include baseball and soccer fields, tennis courts, an outdoor swimming pool, and rope-tow ski slope. Camp Glinodo, owned by the Benedictine Sisters of Erie maintains 25 of its total 124 acres as recreational including a swimming pool and volley ball court. In addition, Gannondale Academy includes approximately one acre for recreational purposes including playground facilities, while Harborcreek Youth Services maintains approximately five acres for recreational use. Other private recreational facilities in the Township include the Gos el Hill Golf course, an 18 hole facility maintained by Gospel HM Golf Club Incorporated which is located on Reese Road, and a public boat ramp located at the end of Shorewood Road. 8 I EXISTING RECREATIONAL FACILITIES I I I I I I I I I I . I I I I I I I - 9 - I Police Protection Harborcreek Township has no municipal police force at the present time and relies on the Troop E Headquarters of the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP), located at 4320 Iroquois Avenue in Lawrence Park Township, for all needed police protection. This barracks of the PSP not only patrols Harborcreek Township, but also patrols nine other Townships and four Boroughs in the central and eastern portions of Erie County. Additionally, Troop E covers Crawford, Venango and Warren Counties in northwestern Pennsylvania. The Troop E Headquarters is one of the three stations in Erie County, the other two being located in Wayne Township and Girard Township. This station is presently staffed by more than 65 employees: 1 station commander, 10 supervisors (Sergeants and Corporals), 47 troopers and 5 civilians. The following specialty personnel also work for the Erie barracks: a Fire Marshall, Polygraph Examiner, Weight Detail, Garage Inspector and 3 troopers who process crime scenes. The State Police provide a seven day, 24 hour service. The Troop E Headquarters has 30 radio equipped vehicles and a helicopter available for duty. In addition to this standard equipment additional emergency equipment is available from other State Police stations when needed. The State Police Crime Laboratory is located next door to the Troop E Headquarters. It is responsible for analyzing many kinds of evidence for the various police departments in northwestern Pennsylvania. The municipalities of Lawrence Park Township, Wesleyville Borough and Millcreek Township, although located adjacent to the western border of Harborcreek Township, do not provide police protection to any portion of the Township. However, in an extreme emergency situation the -police departments in these municipalities could be called upon to assist the State Police in Harborcreek Township. Harborcreek Township does have a contract with the Lawrence Park Township Police Department wrhich provides for patrols of the parking lots of the Eastway, K-Mart and Giant Eagle Plazas. These patrols deal exclusively with parking violations. Fire and Emergency Protection Fire protection fcr Harborcreek Township is furnished by three volunteer fire departments located in four stations. The Harborcreek Fire Department currently has two stations in operation. The first station, built in 1948, is located on Buffalo Road in Harborcreek Village in the central portion of the Township. The second station, built in 1989, is located at the intersection of Highmeyer and East Lake Roads. The older station may be replaced within the next five years. The Fairfield Fire Department operates one station located at the intersection of East Lake and Walbridge Roads. This station, which was constructed in the 1950's, will be replaced by a new structure in the summer of 1995. The Brookside Fire Department operates one station which is located on Athens Road in the west central part of the Township. This station was constructed in 1975. 10 - The personnel and equipment inventories for these stations are as follows: Harborcreek Fire Department (Two Stations) Officers: - (2) Chiefs - (1) Assistant Chief - (1) Captain - (2) Lieutenant.c Firemen: - (26) Active Members - (26) Reserve Members Equipment: - Engine 223 - 1994 Ford Pierce Pumper 1,250 gallon per minute pump with 750 gallon tank 1,400 feet of 4 inch diameter hose - Engine 224 - 1990 Ford Pierce Pumper 1,250 gallon per minute pump with 1,000 gallon tank 1.400 feet of 4 inch diameter hose - Engine 225 - 1979 Ford Hamerly Tanker 450 gallon per minute pump with 1,800 gallon tank 600 feet of 3 inch diameter hose - Ambulance 227 - 1992 Ford Horton Modular Type - Rescue 228 - 1994 International KME Rescue Vehicle with hurst tool, light tower with 25,000 watt generator, 12 ton winch and rescue equipment Fairfield Fire Department (One Station) Officers: - (1) Chief - (1) Assistant Chief - (1) Captain - (3) Lieutenants Firemen: - (29) Active Members - (20) Reserve Members Equipment: - Engine 262 - 1970 Maxium Pumper 1,250 gallon per minute pump with 750 gallon tank 1,500 feet of 4 inch diameter hose - Engine 265 - 1986 Volvo 450 gallon per minute pump with 2,000 gallon tank 1,100 feet of 2 112 inch diameter hose - Engine 268 - 1977 Chevrolet Pumper 1,000 gallon per minute pump with 400 gallon tank 1,500 feet of 4 inch diameter hose - Ambulance 267 - 1990 Ford Econoline with full equipment 12 Brookside Fire Department (One Station) Officers: - (1) Chief - (1) Assistant Chief - (1) Captain - (2) Lieutenants Firemen: - (21) Active Members - (24) Reserve Members Equipment: - Engine 244 - 1992 Emergency One Pumper 1,500 gallon per minute pump with 750 gallon tank 1,500 feet of 4 inch diameter hose - Engine 245 - 1985 GMC Tanker 450 gallon per minute pump with 1,800 gallon tank - Car 246 - 1990 Chevrolet Suburban transport vehicle with rope rescue equipment - Ambulance 247 - 1989 Sentinal - fully equipped - Ambulance 248 - 1988 Horton - fully equipped - Ladder 249 - 1976 Oshkosh Ladder Truck 100 foot LTL ladder with 1,000 gallon per minute pump NFPA rated ladder truck The three departments jointly service all of Harborcreek Township. The departments receive approximately 320 fire calls per year, 850 emergency medical service calls, 170 motor vehicle accident calls and approximately 80 calls of other types. Annual funding of each department is raised through a variety of activities including Harborfest, Harborcreek Township's summer festival; fund drives; raffles; bingo games; donations; Fireman's Relief Fund activities, and special dinners. The annual budget for all three department exceeds $300,000. One hundred and eighty-six fire hydrants are located across much of the Township, but are concentrated primarily in the western urbanized portion of the Township. 13 Emergency Medical Service is also provided by each of the fire departments for all Harborcreek Township residents. Each department has at least eight State certified Emergency Medical Technicians, in keeping with State standards. In addition to the basic life support services provided by the three fire departments, advanced life support services are provided in the Township by Emergycare, Inc. a private ambulance service jointly operated by three Erie area hospitals. This ambulance service is located in the Harborcreek Fire Department station on East Lake Road, and services a number of municipalities in eastern Erie County. The East Erie County Emergency Communications Center, Inc., which is located in the Harborcreek Township Municipal Building, provides Enhanced 911 (E- 911) dispatch service not only to residents of Harborcreek Township, but also to residents in a number@of adjacent communities. Police units dispatched through the 911 center service Wesleyville Borough, Lawrence Park Township, North East Borough and Township, and The Behrend Campus of Penn State University. The fire and emergency medical service units dispatched through this 911 center service Wesleyville Borough, Lawrence Park Township, North East Township and Borough, and Greenfield Township. This 911 operation also serves as a backup dispatch center for Millcreek Township. To protect the East Erie County Emergency Communications Center from power failures, the Township installed a 20,000 watt natural gas powered emergency electrical generator in 1991. Accidents involving hazardous waste are handled by the Erie County Hazardous Materials Response Team which is based in the City of Erie. This team is made up of volunteer firefighters from throughout Erie County as well as volunteers from various private companies that have experience in dealing with hazardous materials. MuniciQal Services and FacilitieS Harborcreek Township is governed by a Board of Supervisors. The three Supervisors are elected for overlapping six year terns, one Supervisor being elected every two years. The governing powers of the Supervisors are broad and extensive, covering virtually the entire range of municipal government functions. Their decisions take form in ordinances and resolutions, and must be passed by a simple majority of votes. The Supervisors of Harborcreek Township have appointed various personnel and boards to assist them in government: a five member Planning Commission: three member Zoning Hearing Board; seven member Parks Commission; five member Sewer Authority; four member Insurance Committee; a Zoning Administrator; a Township Secretary/Controller; Tax Collector; an Engineer and two Solicitors. 14 - The Harborcreek Township Municipal Building, located at 5601 Buffalo Road, is a relatively modern structure wfiich was constructed in 1972 on a 10 acre parcel of Township-owned land situated approximately 1.6 miles east of Lawrence park Township. The building currently houses the offices of the Township Supervisors, general administrative support offices, the zoning administration and code enforcement offices, the Engineering Office, and the income tax and 1% wage tax offices. In addition, the building houses the recently established office of the Harborcreek Township Historical Society and the office of the East Erie County Emergency Communications Center, Inc., as well as the office of the Harborcreek Township Chamber of Commerce. The Township also rents space to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) which holds monthly meetings in a large basement room in the facility. A group known as the Merry Mixers also utilizes the Township Building for a variety of monthly activities. The Township Garage, located behind the Municipal Building, is also a relatively new structure, having been built in 1971. A number of internal improvements have been made to this structure, but no additions have been necessary. Other buildings and property owned by Harborcreek Township include a 30 foot by 40 foot maintenance building located in Rolling Ridge Park, where all park equipment repairs are done, and a former weigh station south of 1-90 on Station Road. The Station Road property is currently leased to a trucking company and is used as a trailer terminal. Hospitals/Medical Facilities No hospital facilities are located within Harborcreek Township itself. However, seven hospitals are located within Erie County, five of which are located in the Erie Metropolitan Are. One walk-in medical facility, the Eastway Emergi-Center, handles minor medical emergencies for area residents. This facility is located at 4234 Buffalo Road in Harborcreek Township. The accompanying table provides some relative data as to the capacity and patient load of the seven hospitals which service Harborcreek Township. 15 - HOSPITALS INVENTORY 1994 ((WITHIN ERIE COUNTY) Treatment Profit/ In-Patient Out-Patient Bed Non-Profit Days Visits Capacity Corry Memorial Non-Profit 2,302 24,051 82 Hospital, City of Corry Metro Health Non-Profit 19,771 37,764 150 Center, City of Erie Millcreek Community Non-Profit 60,851 34,864 101 Hospital, Millcreek Township Hamot Medical Non-Profit 118,650 138,625 536 Center, City of Erie Veteran's Non-Profit 38,126 59,181 120 Admi ni strati on Hospital, City of Erie St. Vincent Health Non-Profit 124,104 186,640 511 Center, City of Erie Union City Memorial Non-Profit 5,009 16,119 35 Hospital, Union City Borough Source: Area Hospital Administrators June 1994 16 Libraries Harborcreek Township residents have access to two libraries: the Penn State Behrend Library, located on the Behrend Campus of the Pennsylvania State University; and the Lawrence Park branch of the Erie County Library System. The Penn State Behrend Library is a new facility, having opened in August of 1993. This library has a collection of 75,000 books and approximately 5.000 bound periodicals, and has significant room for additions to the collection. The Penn State Behrend Library is open 8:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m. Monday through Thursday, 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Friday, 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, and 12:00 p.m. to 11:00 p.m. on Sunday, for a total of 87 hours per week. The Lawrence Park branch of the Erie County Library System is located at 4212 Iroquois Avenue, less then one-half mile west of the boundary between Lawrence Park and Harborcreek Townships. This library branch was established in 1949, and currently has a collection of 40,000 books and 26 bound periodicals. According to a recent study of library patronage patterns done by the County Library System staff, approximately 148,000 books were checked out at the Lawrence Park branch in 1991. Of this total, 42% or roughly 62,250 books were checked out by Harborcreek Township residents. This is approximately equal to four books for each of Harborcreek Township's 15,100+ residents. Hours of operation for the Lawrence Park branch are 10:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Monday and Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. on Thursday, and 10:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on Friday and Saturday, for a total of 42 hours per week. 17 Churches Harborcreek Township has a representative mix of religious denominations and places of worship. A total of twelve churches are located in Township. The name and addresses of these churches are as follows. I East Erie Assembly of God 2653 Saltsman Road Erie, PA 16510 Fellowship Baptist church 2420 Cumberland Road Erie, PA 16510 Harborcreek Baptist Church 4719 Buffalo Road Erie, PA 16510 North Harborcreek Baptist Church 8800 Buffalo Road Harborcreek, PA 16421 Our Lady of Mercy Church 837 Bartlett Road Harborcreek, PA 16421 Harborcreek Evangelical Free Church 1061 Bartlett Road P.O. Box-136 Harborcreek, PA 16421 Christian Life Church and Campus 5019 Buffalo Road Erie, PA 16510 Faith Lutheran Church 5414 East Lake Road Erie, PA 16511 Faith Reformed Church 2953 Saltsman Road Erie, PA 16510 Harborcreek First Presbyterian Church 6722 Buffalo Road Harborcreek, PA 16421 South Harborcreek United Methodist Church 7929 McGill Road Harborcreek, PA 16421 Grace Bible Church 5200 Yale Drive Erie, PA 16510 18 Historic Sites A number of historic sites of local interest can be found throughout Harborcreek Township. These landmarks are examples of the architectural design of varying types of structures which have existed throughout the Township's past and reflect the original development pattern as well. Such buildings and sites contribute to the variety and character of the Township. They form an important part of the community's historic and cultural heritage. This does not mean that a building must be saved because it is old. It does mean that a municipality, as part of its comprehensive planning program, should make a thorough inventory of its resources and take the necessary steps to preserve all landmarks that are found to contribute significantly to its physical and cultural heritage. The following list denotes those sites which have major historical significance, although none are currently listed on the National Register for Historic Preservation: Harborcreek Township Site #1 Map 1 Name of Site: John Dodge House Site Classification: Architectural Dwelling Location: North side of Route 20, west Bartlett Road This brick U-shaped structure has a hip roof with a square hip roof frame cupola. Paired brackets support a cornice which extends from the roof. Stone lintels decorate each window. The house was built in 1854 by the Dodge family who also owned 600 acres adjacent to Lake Erie. Harborcreek Township Site #2 Map 1 Name of Site: Joseph M. Moorhead House Site Classification: Architectural Dwelling Location: 8014 East Lake Road This house was probably constructed in the 1830's. (See Harborcreek Township Site #4.) Harborcreek Township Site #3 Map 1 Name of Site: Joseph M. Moorhead House Site Classification: Architectural Dwelling Location: South side of Route 20, east of King Road This residence is reported to have been constructed in 1832 by the same man who constructed Harborcreek Township Site #2. (See Harborcreek Township Site #4.) 19 - Harborcreek Township Site #4 Map 1 Name of Site: J.Y. Moorhead House Site Classification: Architectural Dwelling Location: Southwest corner of Route 20 and Moorheadville Road Five Moorhead brothers came here from Lancaster County, Pennsylvania in the years between 1801 and 1805 and cleared this property, one of the earliest clearings in the County. The house was erected in 1832. A natural gas well, supposedly the first in the County, provides light and heat. Communications Communications have become a vital part of our society in our personal and business lives as well as being an important factor in assuring health and safety. The media that serves a community provides a vital service of communicating facts, ideas and community events. Without this exchange of information any community would soon become isolated from outside events and ideas. Telephone Facilities: Telephone service is offered to Harborcreek Township residents by the General Telephone Company of Pennsylvania. The telephone cable network servicing Harborcreek Township residents originates at a central switching center located on Buffalo Road (U.S. Route 20) between Riverside Drive and Water Street in Wesleyville Borough. Customer calls are handled by a computerized switching system put into service in August of 1979. Harborcreek Township residents are fortunate to have such a large base calling area, as they may call the communities of North East, Wattsburg, Waterford, Edinboro, Fairview, Girard, McKean and Erie without paying toll charges. Television and Radio: Harborcreek Township is currently served by five Erie television stations: WICU (NBC-12), WJET (ABC-24), WSEE (CBS-35), WQLN (Public- 54), and WETG (FOX-66). Depending on the weather conditions, the Township is also served by most of the radio stations operating in Erie County: WRIE (1260 AM), WFLP (1330 AM). WLKK (1400 AM), WQLN (91.3 FM), WFGO (94.7 FM), WXTA (97.9 FM), WXKC (99.9 FM), WRKT (100.9 FM), WJET (102.3 FM), WMXE (103.7 FM), WRTS (104 FM), and WCTL (106.3 FM). In addition, Harborcreek Township can also receive broadcasts by WREO (97.1 FM) from Astabula, Ohio. Cable Television Facilities: Cable television services in Harborcreek Township are provided by TCI of Pennsylvania, Inc. The densely populated areas within the Township are generally fully serviced. The extension of cable television facilities by TCI of Pennsylvania, Inc. will likely continue to occur pursuant to demand. See accompanying Cable Television Facilities Map. - 20 - Newspapers: Harborcreek Township is served by two newspapers: the Erie Times- News and the North East Breeze, a Brown-Thompson newspaper. The North East Breeze is published weekly and serves approximately 1,500 customers in northeastern Erie County. Of this total, approximately 100 newspapers are either home delivered or purchased over the counter in Harborcreek Township. The Erie Time-News publishes two daily papers as well as a Sunday edition. All editions are circulated throughout Harborcreek Township. These papers carry County-wide news as well as international, national and State wire- service coverage. 21 I CABLE SERVICE SYSTEM MAP I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 22 - I H a r b o r c r e e k T o w n s h p OWNERSHIP PATTERNS AS OF DECEMBER 1994 INSTITUTIONAL MUNICIPAL ROAD RIGHT-OF-WAYS PRIVATE SCALE I /rich 3350 Feet CHAPTER 9 PUBLIC UTILITIES Introduction The availability of public utilities is a prime determinant in relation to the location, character, and intensity of land development. Future development is more likely to occur in those areas that offer water distribution, sanitary sewage disposal, and storm sewers. Included at the end of the last Chapter is the Ownership Patterns Map for Harborcreek Township. The map indicates property owned by various community facilities discussed in the last Chapter, and the property owned by the public utilities discussed in this Chapter of this study. An inventory of the public utilities existing in Harborcreek Township has been completed. For purposes of this planning document, public utilities include municipal water, sanitary sewer and storm sewer systems as well as electric and natural gas services. Since the existence of public utility facilities provides the foundation for land use intensity and future development, the inventory of such facilities is viewed as having major importance. Water Facilities The existing public water system located in and serving Harborcreek Township is operated and maintained by the Erie City Water Authority. This system, formerly operated by the City of Erie Water Bureau, was transferred to the Erie City Water Authority in 1992 in an attempt to improve service and to develop and implement a critical capital improvements program. See the accompanying Public Water Distribution System Map. The existing public water system encompasses the entire northwestern quadrant of Harborcreek Township. As a result, approximately one third of the Township's 33.7 square miles has public water service availability. Based on information provided by the Erie City Water Authority, there are approximately 3,100 residential customers in Harborcreek Township. Thus, it is estimated that two-thirds of the Township's population is served by the Erie City Water Authority. Additionally, the Authority services 152 commercial, 23 public and 4 manufacturing customers (January 1994 figures), The Harborcreek Township Board of Supervisors plays an active role in the extension of public water service. In fact, the most recent water line extension project was completed by the Board in 1994. The Harborcreek Township Water Authority continues to exist as an advisory and recommending body to the Board of Supervisors. Despite not being an operating authority, the Harborcreek Township Water Authority acts as a useful liaison between the Board of Supervisors and the general public. The remaining one-third of the Township's population must rely on individual private water wells for potable water. The quantity and quality of the water supplied by individual wells vary considerably throughout the Township. It is believed that many of the relatively shallow dug wells located in the northern portion of the Township are of inconsistent quantity and quality. Water quantity varies on a seasonal basis. However, there have been reports of widespread contamination of these shallow wells. On the other hand, the southern portion of Harborcreek Township is supported by relatively stable acquifers. These wells are typically deeper drilled wells and are more consistent than the shallow wells located along Lake Erie. Sanitary Sewer Facilities The collection, conveyance, treatment and disposal of sanitary wastes (i.e. sewage) in Harborcreek Township may be classified as three distinct methods. The three classifications may be described as the municipal system, private systems and individual on-lot septic systems. Each of these classifications will be described and discussed herein. The municipal system (i.e. public sanitary sewer system is the most recently developed and serves approximately 60 percent of the Township's population. This service area is generally consistent with that of the public water system, excluding the northeastern portion of the water service area. Municipal sanitary sewer facilities are found in the more densely populated area of northwestern Harborcreek Township adjacent to Lawrence Park Township and Wesleyville Borough. The Harborcreek Sewer Authority was created in 1970 and is responsible for all of the public sewer facilities within Harborcreek Township. There were no public sewer facilities located in Harborcreek Township prior to 1971. Construction of the present sewer system began in November of 1971 and was completed in January of 1974. The system was designed so that all sewage flows northerly toward East Lake Road (State Route 5) and is pumped via four sewage 1i ft stations into Lawrence Park Township and ultimately to the Erie Wastewater Treatment Plant. See the accompanying Public Sewer Collection System Map. There are a number of private sewage treatment facilities located in Harborcreek Township. Two of these private systems were constructed prior to the inStdllation of public sewer facilities and, in effect, supplement the municipal system. One such private system is owned, operated and maintained by the South Shore Service Company. This system is located in the extreme northwestern portion of the Township between East Lake Road and Lake Erie. Approximately 965 residents are served by this system. Homes on Lowry, South Shore, Harbor, Micah and Aaron Drives, the South Shore Apartments located on Joshua Street and the Harborcreek Mall are served by this system. All sewage from this service area is directed to a private treatment plan located along Fivemile Creek near its mouth at Lake Erie. 2 The second such private system services Penn State-Erie, The Behrend College wbich had a 1994 enrollment of approximately 3,100 students. In addition to faculty and other staff persons, there are approximately 1,100 students which live on campus in the dormitories or on-campus apartments. In recent years, a number of individual and community small flow treatment facilities have been approved and constructed in Harborcreek Township. In the case of the several individual treatment plants (i.e. single residence sewage treatment plants), the system is owned, operated and maintained by the property owner. A community system, however, would typically be owned and operated by a non-profit corporation, such as a property owners association. Due to the existence of relatively poor soils for on-lot septic systems in the non-served portions of the Township, it is anticipated that there will be an increase in the construction of such private treatment facilities. These systems, however, must still go through a regulatory review and approval process and are considered by the Harborcreek Officials to be an appropriate method of sewage disposal. The remaining areas of the Township in which the development is relatively sparse must rely on individual on-lot sewage disposal systems. The effectiveness of the on-lot septic systems depends upon the local soil conditions as well as the groundwater table in the area. There is no evidence that large areas of malfunctioning on-lot septic systems as approved by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources and the Erie County Health Department will be acceptable. Storm Drainage Facilities The existing storm drainage facilities located in Harborcreek Township are owned and maintained by the Township. These facilities are located in various areas throughout the Township since there is no comprehensive storm drainage plan. The existing facilities are generally located in the western portion of Harborcreek Township. Additionally, the new developments which have recently been completed all include storm drainage systems. The Harborcreek Township Stormwater Management Ordinance was adopted in 1993. The provisions of this Ordinance require that stormwater runoff be properly managed and controlled in conjunction with new development such as residential subdivisions, commercial establishments, etc. In addition to storm drainage collection and conveyance systems, stormwater retention facilities will frequently be required. It is the intention of the Harborcreek Officials that relatively large retention facilities serving residential development will ultimately be owned and maintained by the Township. Conversely, the stormwater management systems, including retention facilities, supporting commercial and other non-residential developments should be owned and mainta'Ined by the individual property owners. Generally, storm drainage concerns are addressed as they arise. Isolated areas of concern must be resolved on a very local basis. A stormwater management plan is currently under development for Harborcreek as a part of a countywide effort at this time. 3 Electric Facilities Residents in Harborcreek Township receive electric service from the Pennsylvania Electric Company (Penelec). This service is available throughout the entire Township. Penelec also has three high voltage power transmission line rights-of-way which cross portionS of the southern part of the Township. They meet at a substation just northwest of the intersection of Harborgreen and Jordan Roads. From this point, the three lines branch out in various directions. One goes west along Harborgreen Road into Millcreek Township. Another follows Fourmile Creek northwesterly into the City of Erie, and the third line goes easterly between Harborgreen and Station Roads into Greenfield Township. Power from these lines is not directly accessible to residents of Harborcreek Township. Natural Gas Facilities Natural gas services in Harborcreek Township are provided by the National Fuel Gas Corporation (National Fuel). The densely developed areas within the Township are generally served and have been for many years. The extension of natural gas facilities by National Fuel will likely continue to occur pursuant to demand. See the accompanying Natural Gas Distribution System Map. 4 I PUBLIC WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MAP I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 5 - I I PUBLIC SEWER COLLECTION SYSTEM MAP I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 6 - I I NATURAL GAS DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM MAP I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I - 7 - I I APPENDIX I TO THE 1994 BACKGROUND ANALYSIS FOR THE I HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP COMPREHENSIVE PLAN I I I I I I I I I I I I. I I I - I HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS REPORT OCTOBER 1994 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Historic Trends ......................................... I Sub-Municipal Analysis ....................... * * * ' * * * *2 11. Social. Characteristics ..................................... 3 Age and Gender .................................... 3 Race and Edinicity ................................... 5 Households and Families ............................... 7 III. Economic Characteristics ................................... 9 IV. Population Projections .................................... 15 Tract Level Projection Analysis ......................... 18 V. Policy Implications ..................................... 21 Tables Table 1 - Comparative Growth Rates - 1 *980-1990 - Harborcreek Township and Surrounding Municipalities ............. 2 Table 2 - Comparative Age by Proportion - Selected Pennsylvania Places .......... 3 Table 3 - Male/Female Population by Proportion - Selected Pennsylvania Places ...... 4 Table 4 - Harborcreek Township: 1990 Population by Age/Sex ................ 4 Table 5 - Harborcreek Township - 1980-1990 - Population Proportion By Race ...... 5 Table 6 - Harborcreek Township - Census Tracts: Race by Proportion ........... 6 Table 7 - Harborcreek Township - 1980-1990 - Household Number and Persons Per Household ....................................... 7 Table 8 - Household Structure for Selected Household Types - Harborcreek Township .......................................... 8 Table 9 - Group Quarters - Harborcreek Township - 1980-1990 ................ 9 Table 10 - Household Income in Harborcreek Township Compared Using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ..................................... 10 Table 11 - HUD L1W Limits in Erie County .......................... 14 Table 12 - LW Concentration by Census Tract, Harborcreek Township .......... 15 Table 13 - Harborcreek Township, Zero Net Migration - 1960-2010 ............ 16 Table 14 - Harborcreek Township, Population Projection: High Scenario ......... 16 Table 15 - Harborcreek Township, Population Projection: Low Scenario ......... 17 Table 16 - Harborcreek Township, Population Projection: Long-Term Scenario ..... 18 Table 17 - Harborcreek Township, Tract Level -Population Projections ........... 19 Table 18 - Comparative Population Projection - Harborcreek Township - 1990-2010 20 Maps Map of 1990 Census Tracts .............................. Follows Page 6 YURBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHICS 1. HISTORIC TRENDS Unlike many places in Northwestern Pennsylvania, Harborcreek Township has experienced continuous growth since 1930. Much of this growth is related to the Township's strategic position within the Erie Metropolitan Area. Since 1950, Harborcreek has been a primary beneficiary of out-migration from the City of Erie. In 1950, the City'of Erie had 130,803 persons, while Harborcreek Township had 7,475 persons. By 1990, the City had declined to 108,718 persons (-16.9%), while Harborcreek had expanded to include 15,108 persons (+ 102.1 A comparison of-this is depicted in the chart. COMPARME POPULAMN CHANGE 1950-19M HARBORCREEK TWP. AND CITY OF ERIE 140- 120- 100- 80. 60- 40- 20 1%0 1970 im 0 HARBORCREEK TW - CITY OF ERIE MILLCREEK TWP. Obviously, Harborcreek was not the sole beneficiary of out-migration from the City of Erie. Millcreek Township has seen suburban growth. However, even traditionally high growth communities were affected by the regional economic problems of the early 1980s. Places like Harborcreek, which had seen 7 to 20 percent, growth between each Census only experienced 2 to 3 percent from 1980 to 1990. Traditionally, declining municipalities had accelerated losses. TABLE 1 COMPARATIVE GROWTH RATES - 1980-1990 HARBORCREEK TOWNSIRE AND SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES 1980 1990 % ChanN City of Erie 119,123 108,718 -8.7% Millcreek Township 44,303 46,820 +5.7% Harborcreek Township 14t644 159108 +3.2% Lawrence Park Township 4,584 4,310 -6.0% Wesleyville Borough 3,998 3,665 -8.6% North East Township 5,750 6,283 +9.3% Greenfield Township 1,677 1,770 +5.5% Greene Township 5,238 4,759 -5.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1980-1990 As a result of 1990 Census analysis, Erie City remains the Commonwealth's third largest municipality. Harborcreek is the twenty-first largest. However, in the context of Erie County, Harborcreek is the third largest community, following only Millcreek and the City of Erie. Spatially, this explains Harborcreek's truly suburban role in the County, with truly urbanized places to the west and rural communities to the east and south. Sub-Municipal Analysis: It is difficult to examine census tract population in Harborcreek prior to 1990 because of delineation changes. In 1980, Harborcreek was divided into two census tracts. For the 1990 Census, the number of tracts was increased to four. Population estimates of the pre-1990 population of each tract are included in Section IV. Harborcreek has indeed had significant growth over the past 40 years. Yet, this growth slowed dramatically during the 1980s. There is an obvious link between economics and demographics in this case. The post-World War II years represented a time of transition in American urban structure. The automobile allowed middle-class households great flexibility in choosing a place to live. Once given a choice, families chose the newer homes and larger yards of the suburbs. It is this trend that began to cause the growth of Harborcreek's population and the corresponding decline in the City of Erie. 2 The outstanding element of this migration is that it often cut across economic class and ethnic lines. Millworkers were as likely to join this migration as businessmen. All who could afford to relocate were anxious to live in places like Harborcreek. The early 1980s brought double-digit unemployment and major restructuring of industry in the Erie area. This changed migration patterns radically. Many persons left Northwestern Pennsylvania in search of jobs elsewhere. This regional trend affected Harborcreek by slowing in-migration. There was simply a smaller pool of persons with both the means and inclination to live in Harborcreek. It is hoped that the population trends of the 1980s were a temporal anomaly. This assumption has been made and will be discussed further in the Population Projections section. H. SOCUL CHARACTERISTICS Age and Gender: Because of a common life-span disparity between men and women, these two social characteristics are often linked. Generally, populations with more older persons will also have more females. This is also true in the inverse, with younger populations having greater number of males. The aforementioned trend is more important because a general aging of the population has been noted in Pennsylvania. However, it is interesting to note that Harborcreek and Erie County, as a whole, have not paralleled the State in this trend. TABLE 2 COMPARATIVE AGE BY PROPORTION SELECTED PENNSYLVANIA PLACES Age Groups Place 0-17 18-64 65+ Pennsylvania 23.5 61.1 15.4 Erie County 25.9 60.3 13.8 Harborcreek Township 25.3 62.0 12.7 Source: Penn State Data Center 3 In real numbers, these proportions give Harborcreek 3,827 school-aged children, 9,368 worldng age adults, and 1,913 retirement-age adults. This data would seem to indicate a more even gender split, as is shown in the next table. TABLE 3 MALE/FEMALE POPULATION BY PROPORTION SE@LECTED PENNSY ANIA PLACES - 1990 Fem Male Pennsylvania 52.1 47.9 Erie County 51.7 48.3 Harborcreek Township 50.2 49.8 Source Penn State Data Center Finally, for micro-planning purposes and the development of population projections, age and gender, by 5-year cohorts, is presented. TABLE 4 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP: 1990 POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1980-90 1980-90 198G-90 Age of 1990 1990 1990 % of Change Change Change Cohort Total Male Female Total -Total Male Female 0-4 798 415 383 5.3% (223) (113) (110) 5-9 1,120 560 560 7.4% (28) (35) 7 10-14 1,173 602 571 7.8% (189) (84) (105) 15-19 1,704 893 811 11.3% (155) (80) (75) 20-24 1,240 761 479 8.2% 62 129 (67) 25-29 759 352 407 5.0% (355) (179) (176) 30-34 1,097 535 562 7.3% 88 44 44 35-39 1,264 628 636 8.4% 286 120 166 40-44 1,051 505 546 7.0% 322 163 159 45-49 917 487 430 6*1% 172 116 56 50-54 665 311 354 4.4% (188) (93) (95) 55-59 645 318 327 4.3% (135) (74) (61) 60-64 762 359 403 5.0% 129 31 98 61-69 648 321 327 4*3% 210 122 88 70-74 524 228 296 3.5% 209 98 ill 75-79 342 131 211 2.3% 129 51 78 80-84 223 65 158 1.5% 72 17 55 85+ 176 51 125 1.2% -58 12 46 Totals 15,108 7,522 7,586 100.0% 464 245 219 Percent 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% N.A. 100.0% 52.9% 47.2% Source: Consultants' computations from 1990 Census data 4 Table 4 shows fewer parallels to Statewide trends. The number of elderly persons grew, but simply not at the accelerated rate experienced by the State. The number of children and young adults declined, but less so than was true for the whole of Pennsylvania. Because of these changes, Harborcreek Township remains a much younger and more gender balanced community than the Statewide norm. Race and Ethnicity: Many demographers believe that the ethnic and racial diversity which have historically characterized the United States will continue to broaden. Overall, the numbers of racial minorities have expanded in recent years across the nation. However, many rural or suburban places remain predominantly White. As of 1990, 14@746 (97.7%) of the Township's residents are White, while 362 (2.3%) are racial minorities. A comparison of 1980 and 1990 racial,counts is depicted below, by proportion. TABLE 5 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP - 1980-1990 POPULATION PROPORTION BY RACE 1980 1990 White 98.4% 97.7% Black 1.0% 1.6% Asian/Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.4% American Indian/Aleut 0.2% 0.0% Other Race 0.2% 0.3% Total 100.0% 100.0% Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, STF-1 Files It should be noted that these numbers are not strictly comparable, particularly in ter mis of the "Other Race" category, due to changes in social definition by the Census Bureau. In spite of this, there is an overall constancy in racial distribution through the 1980s. The slight rise in Black and Asian populations parallels the national trends of suburbanization of the Black middle class and increased immigration from Asia. The decline in American Indians represents a typical problem with self-identification of racial or ethnic groups. The Census Bureau believes there is substantial over-reporting for American Indian descent. For example, it is not uncommon for persons with a single Indian ancestor to identify strongly with that racial group. 5 In a similar manner, Hispanic groups present a delineation problem. Technically, "Hispanic" identifies linguistic, ethnic, and national groups. There are Hispanic persons representing all races. However, many persons of this group regard it as their race as well. To try to fiffly tabulate these persons, the Census Bureau asks specifically whether persons are of Hispanic origin. In 1980, 31 persons in Harborcreek answered "yes." By 1990, this had risen to 83. This increase equates to a nationwide increase of Hispanic persons. This population is comprised primarily of Puerto Ricans. When ancestry issues beyond race and Hispanic origin are addressed, the sea of data becomes even more muddled. There was also a major change in tabulation methods between 1980 and 1990, maldng direct comparison very difficult. At best, some generalities can be drawn from 1990 data. Overall, the most common ancestry claimed was German. Over 9,100 Township residents claimed at least some German blood. Other major ancestries included Polish (4,126 claimants), Irish (3,480 claimants), English (2,358 claimants), and Italian (2,370 claimants). Virtually, every other ethnic group has at least a handful of representatives in the Township. In a typical suburban pattern, there are no discernable racial or ethnic enclaves or settlement patterns. This lack of discernable pattern is most visible by examining this data by census tract. A map of census tracts in 1990 is also attached. The 1980 Census Tracts were split to create the 1990 Tracts. Thus, 115.03 and 115.04 were a single tract in 1980, as were 115.05 and 115.06. TABLE 6 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP CEN5!15 TRACTS: R-ACE BY PROPORTION C.T. C.T. C.T. C.T. 115.03 115. 115.05 115.06 Range White 97.92% 99.01% 98.01% 96.31% 1.35% Black 1.23% 0.83% 1.06% 2.60% 0.88% Native American 0.06% 0.09% 0.19% 0.14% 0.06% Asian/Pacific Islander 0.60% 0.05% 0.13% 0.63% 0.29% Other Race 0,18% 0. % 0,61% 0,32% 0.29% Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% N.A. Source: U.S. Census of 1990 and consultants' computations 6 JAY,% nis CAST LAKK 114 LAWRENCE PARK 115.03 TOWNSHIP v An WESLEYVILLE NOR FOLK VCSTEAN RAILROAD BOROUGH I;UFFALO to. 113 115-04 op .f or 4 OF 4 115.06 Most HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1990 CENSUS TRACTS SA'S COUNTY D"AMIXT Or PLAMMING logo Overall, there is very little difference in the racial breakdown between each census tract. This seems to indicate that race does not play a factor in the Township's internal settlement patterns. Households and Families: Humans typically live in social units. A knowledge of the nature of these social units assists planners in understanding impacts on housing and economics'. Nationwide, household and family size has been falling. Households of one or two persons were much more common in 1990 than 1980. TABLE 7 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP - 1980-1990 HQjjSEHQLD MMBER AkM RE-RSQNS PER HQUSEUQLD Persons Number of Number Per Year Households of Persons Households 1980 41,483 14,644 3.07* 1990 4,912 15,108 2.80* *Calculated as population - group quarters/number of households Source: 1980 and 1990 Census, STF-1 Table 7 shows that total population in Harborcreek rose modestly (3.2%) in the 1980s. However, the number of households grew a dramatic 9.5 percent. This simply means that fewer persons will require more housing units. Clues to this trend can be found in a number of household structural characteristics. The Township had 3,692 family households in 1980. This increased to only 3,790 in 1990. Therefore, there was an identifiable increase in the proportion of non-family households. Further structural analysis is detailed in Table 8. 7 TABLE 8 HOUSEHOLD STRUCTURE FOR SELECTED HOUSEHOLD TYPES HAUQRCREEK 1:QWNSHIP - 19@0-1990 No. 1980 1990 Changg Householder Living Alone 692 992 +300 Married Couples Without Children 1,466 1,692 +226 Married Couples With Children 1,801 1,652 +149 Single Parents With Children 224 239 +15 Non-Family, Multi-Person Household 99 130 +31 Source: U.S. Census, STF-1, 1980-1990 It is readily discemable that the smaller form of households grew. This is due to aging of the population, divorce trends, and the decline in births that followed the baby boom, and a general decline in the traditional extended family or large nuclear family households. In the future, this trend will probably continue, though with less dramatic momentum. Some Township residents occupy group quarters rather than households. Group quarters can include a variety of institutional and non-institutional facilities. Growth in group quarters population can be arbitrary and completely divorced from other trends in a community. This can be seen by comparing 1980 and 1990 residents of group quarters by type. The influence of Behrend College is obvious from the figure in Table 9. 8 TABLE .9 GROUP QUARTERS ffLRBQgCREEK JOWNSHIP - 1980-1920 Type of Group Quarters 1980 1990 Change, Mental Hospital 84 0 -84 Nursing Home 118 109 -9 Juvenile Detention 0 100 +100 College Dormitory 567 1,014 +447 Other Group Quarters 96 131 +35 Total 865 1,354 +489 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, STF-1 Overall, the number of group quarter residents can be expected to grow over the next 10 to 20 years. Nursing home and college dormitories, capacity will probably see specific expansions. M. ECONONUC CELARACTERISTICS Median household income (MHI) represents one of the most basic indicators of local economic performance. Like many suburban places, Harborcreek Township enjoys a relatively high median. The 1989 median household income for the Township was $32,670 per year; $10,000 higher than the Erie City median of $22,032. It is also significantly higher than the Countywide median of $26,581 per annum. The Township has even surpassed the Statewide figure of $29,069 per year. The Table inflates the 1979 median household income to 1989 values using a factor based upon the Consumer Price Index. The results are a little surprising. In spite of this encouraging trend, the median income in Harborcreek Township did not remain at pace with inflation from 1980 to 1990. 9 TABLE 10 HOUSEHOLD INCOME IN HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP COMPARED USING THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CM Actual Adjusted Actual Actual Percent Non-Adjusted 1979 MHI 1979 MHI 1989 MHI Difference Difference Difference $20,029 $33,569 $32,670 _$899 -2.7% +63.1% Source: Consultants' computations Table 9 shows the 1979 median household income in terms of constant dollar buying power (adjusted 1979 MHI). This number is actually higher than the 1989 MIR. The implication is that even though the median income rose 63.1 percent, the real buying power of these dollars is significantly less than was found in the 1980 Census. The household income of Harborcreek Township residents vary by the age of householders. Overall, very young or very old heads of household are more likely to have lower incomes. Middle-age households tend to have higher incomes. It is very possible that this was a factor in the charted decline in buying power. Among households headed by someone age 15-24, none enjoyed an income greater than $50,000 per year. This pattern is very common form younger wage earners. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 15-24 AGE COHORT 45 40-- 0 x W to =) 0 x LL 2o. 0 cc '11 15- ca :3 10 z 5. 0$0-9K $10-15K $15-25K $25-44% S35WK $50-75K $75K+ 10 A majority of persons in this young age cohort have annual inco mes of less than $25,000 per year. Persons 25-34 are shown as beginning to break into upper income levels. However, 27 percent of this cohort still have incomes under $25,OW per annum. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 25-34 AGE COHORT 2W- iso- 100- 50 FA W1117A 0 $"K $15-25K $25-35K'$3S-50K*$60-7SK' $75K+ The 35-44 age group closely mirrors the 25-34 cohort, though more 35-44 householders have achieved high incomes. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 4W- HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 35-44 AGE COHORT 4W- 3W- 3W 250 200- 150- 100. 50' 0 W9K $10-16K $15-25K $264SK'M-50K $60-76K $75K+ The 45-54 householders begin to show maximum income levels. Only 9 percent of these households have incomes below $25,WO per year. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 45-54 AGE COHORT 3W- 2W- 200- 150- 100. so- 0- $0-9K $10-16K $16-25K'$25--WASK $3S-SOK'$50-76,K As heads of household approach retirement, incomes begin to fall. This probably reflects a number of early retirees. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 55-64 AGE COHORT 180. 160- 140- 120- 100- 20 0 ... $0-9K $10-15K $15-25K $25-35K $3S-SOK $;0- 12 This trend is more visible among householders age 65-74. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 65-74 AGE COHORT 300- 250- 200- 150- 100- So- 0-t $04 Finally, among the elderly (75 income levels mirror those of very young householders. HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 200- HOUSEHOLD INCOME: 75+ AGE COHORT 180- 160- 140- 120- 100- so- 60- 40- 20- 0- $0-9K $10-15K $15-25K'$25-WK'$-3S,50K'$50-75K' $75K+ 5 25K @$2S,15K $35-WK $"K $10-15K $1 13 Income in Harborcreek Township is quite pyramidal. Young households earn less money, but earnings increase with age to a middle age apex. As persons reach traditional retirement age, income declines significantly. Finally, to deduce any spacial trends, the HUD LMI (low-moderate income) statistics were consulted. This statistic is a central feature of the CDBG Program and can be used as an index of sub-municipal economic performance. To qualify as low or moderate income, the household must fall below the current income limits shown in Table 11. TABLE 11 Persons JUM _LMI LIM11S IN ERIE COLJNTY Per Household Income Limits 1 $20,000 2 $22,850 3 $25,700 4 $28,550 5 $30,850 6 $33,150 7 $35,400 8 or More $37P700 Source: Pennsylvania Department of Community Affairs Township-wide, only 23.76 percent of Harborcreek residents fall below these limits. Tract analysis information in Table 12 shows no significant concentration of LMI households. 14 TABLE 12 LMI CONCENTRATION BY CENSUS TRACT HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP Tract LM1 Numb Proportion 115.03 27.26% 115.04 20.55% 115.05 28.34% 115.06 23.17% Source: Pennsylvania Department of Community Affairs IV. POPULATION PROJECTIONS One of the main objectives in collecting demographic data is to attempt a forecast of future population. Population projections are not crystal balls; they are merely an attempt to logically carry past and current trends into the future. Certain key demographic data are essential for projections. An understanding of the age structure of the population is used to forecast mortality. Gender analysis can determine both mortality and the population's potential for natural increase through child birth. Past migration trends are also helpful to understand underlying factors of community change. The full analysis of population projections is made on five-year age/sex cohorts. Because it typically involves about 50 pages of spreadsheet calculations, the full projection printout is not included in this report. A full copy of the projection series calculations is available from Harborcreek Township. The first population projection is based upon a zero net migration scenario. This scenario simply assumes that the 1990 population would reproduce and die, without any in- or out- migration. 15 TABLE 13 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP ZERO NET MLG_RATION - 1960-2010 Year PMulation Change % Change 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 19469 13.9% 1980 14,644 29606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000 15,114 6 0.0% 2010 14,831 (283) -1.9% Source: Consultants' computations As this scenario plays out, it shows that the Township's population would be almost completely static from 1990 to 2000, and declines slightly from 2000 to 2010. This decline is due to a general aging of the population and a lowering of birth rates. As the historic data shows, the 1970 to 1980 decade was a time of significant growth for the Township. Table 14 shows if that high rate of in-migration were applied to the post- 1990 population. TABLE 14 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP PQLI N: HIGH SCENARIO &ATION PROJECTIO Year Ppyulatio Change % Cha= 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 29606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000 18,523 3,415 22.6% 2010 22,201 3,678 19.9% Source: Consultants' computations 16 In this scenario, the 1980 to 1990 decade appears as an anomaly. The 3.2 percent population growth was only a slight interruption in a long-term pattern of higher growth. If the economic factors which slowed in-migration in the 1980s were applied to the future, population would resemble the numbers in Table 15. TABLE 15 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP POEULAMN PRQJECn0N: LQ3Y SCENARIQ Year ftpulatio Change % Chan= 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,312 464 3.2% 2000 15,312 (204) 1.3% 2010 14,938 (374) -2.4% Source: Consultants' computations If the economic devastation of 1980 returned in the years 1990-2010, the Township would experience a slight population loss. However, the final project scenario in Table 16 attempts to account for migration trends over a 20-year average. This longer term analysis tends to be a balancing factor, duffing extreme fluctuations. 17 TABLE 16 HARBORCREEK TOWNSRUP POEI&ATIQN PROJECU LONG-TERM SCENAM QN: Year P=latio Change % Chnn 1960 10,569 N.A. N.A. 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000 17,360 2,252 14.9% 2010 19,440 2,079 12.0% Source: Consultants' computations From a purely statistical vantage, the long-term scenario is most likely. However, when each decade is examined upon its own merit, it becomes readily apparent that 1980-1990 period interrupted the general pattern of growth. When this analysis is combined with building permit data and similar growth indicators, it is readily apparent that the Township's historic growth will probably continue. Tract Level Projection Analysis: Regardless of the projection scenario employed, it appears that Harborcreek Township will experience population growth into the next century. However, the divergence of each tract indicates that tract level refinement of this data may be in order. However, it should be noted that the previously mentioned difficulty with historical tract level comparisons is still applicable. Specifically, the delineation of tracts has changed since 1980. Therefore, the consultants were forced to make an estimate of pre-1980 data for the projection. Otherwise, these scenarios parallel the process used in developing the Township-wide projections. An attempt was made to link this mathematical material with known trends- in residential building pernuts and expansion programs envisioned by major group quarter providers (especially Behrend College). In spite of this, tract-level refinements can account for expected events in the Township's future. In this case, projected Behrend College enrollment and growth patterns from building permits were considered in developing the projection series. With this in mind, the tract level projections are shown in Table 17. 18 TABLE 17 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP TRACT LEVEL PQPULATION ROJE TIQNS E--_ C Historical: Projected: Tract Do 1970 1980 1990 12K 2M 2005 2010 115.03 21,719* 3,000* 3,,400* 3,320 3,573 3,830 3,900 39980 115.04 3,550* 3,800* 4,301* 49239 4,533 4,830 5,030 5,230 115.05 2,000* 2,300* 3,043* 3,112 3,260 3,400 3,590 3,780 115.06 2,300* 2,938* 3,900* 49421 4,610 5,300 5,380 6,450 *Estimated Source: Consultants' computations 19 Tract 115.03 is the northwest section of the Township. Building permit data for this area indicates continued residential growth at a relatively dense level. There is also a large nursing home facility which will remain constant and possibly experience slight growth to 2010. Tract 115.04 will probably experience even more growth in single-family, detached housing. Tract 115.05 is highly developed and may have less space to accommodate future growth. Tract 115.06 is the home of Behrend Campus of Penn State. It is estimated their dormitories will add group quarters for 250 students by 2000 and another 750 by 2010. The tract level analysis also serves as a cross check for the validity of the municipal level projections. When the pure mathematical projections were refined to reflect expected future development, the tract analysis mirrors the most likely or long-term projection series. TABLE 18 COMPARATIVE POPULATION PROJECTION HARBQRCREEK TQ.WNSHIP - IL90-2010 1990 2000 2010 All Tracts 15,108 17,360 19,440 Township 159108 179360 199440 Source: Consultants' computations The main tract level consists of the addition of 1,000 persons in Tract 115.06. This addition is wholly dependent upon an enrollment expansion by Behrend College. It is expected that the bulk of this increase will not be reflected in census counts until 2010. Even without the proposed expansion program by Behrend College, it is obvious that Harborcreek Township has a high potential for future growth. Its implications will be examined in the final section. 20 V. POLICY DAPLICATIONS The implications of the preceding demographic data are far reaching, but can be summarized as follows: 10. Harborcreek Township has seen a consistent trend of historic growth. The growth has been largely due to in-migration rather than natural increase. The Township should work to preserve those features of the community which have made it a popular place to locate. 0 Fewer retirement-age persons lessens the immediate need for specific services oriented toward the elderly. However, there are large numbers of working age adults within 10 to 20 years of retirement. Proper preparations will increase the chance that many of these persons remain to retire in the Township. In spite of declines, significant numbers of children remain in the Township. With about one fourth of Harborcreek residents under 18, there is a ready market for youth-oriented services (playgrounds, parks, teen centers). The capacity of current facilities should be carefully examined. P. The number of persons living in a group-quarter setting win probably continue to expand in the future. Household sizes and types are changing. Local regulations should be examined to determine their adequacy for facilitating the smaller household types that are becoming more common. In particular, minimum unit sizes and densities should be examined. 10. 'I"he Township will probably continue to grow through further in-migration. Because of this impending growth, a number of policies are recommended. First, the Township should take advantage of the planning process to make policy decisions about the location, intensity, and timing of future growth. Specifically, portions of the Township could be reserved to accommodate growth while others could be reserved for traditional rural, low-density uses. 21 APPENDIX A DETAIL DATA OF THE PROJECTION SERIES FOR THE HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS AND POPULATION PROJECTIONS REPORT HARBORCREEK DATE: 10/11/94 POPULAMON PROJECTIONS LOW SERIES FIGURES ROUNDED 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 601 311 290 3.9% (197) (104) (93) 5-9 875 454 422 5.7% (245) (106) (138) 10-14 917 480 437 6.0% (256) (122) (134) 15-19 1,912 972 940 12.5% 208 79 129 2D-24 1,322 571 751 8.6% 82 (190) 272 25-29 696 330 366 4.5% (63) (22) (41) 30-34 1,137 729 408 7.4% 40 194 (154) 35-39 860 447 413 5.6% (404) (181) (223) 4044 1,143 540 603 7.5% 92 35 57 45-49 1,184 615 569 7.7% 267 128 139 50-54 959 463 495 6.3% 294 152 141 55-59 793 418 375 5.20/o 148 100 48 60-64 594 288 306 3.9% (168) (71) (97) 65-69 536 231 305 3.5% (112) (90) (22) 70-74 641 245 396 4.20/c 117 17 100 75-79 500 192 308 3.3% 158 61 97 8G-84 367 102 265 2.4% 144 37 107 85+ 275 74 201 1.8% 99 23 76 TOTALS 15,312 7,461 7,851 100.0% 204 (61) 265 PERCENT 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% NA 10 0. (r/o -30.0% 130.0% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 1990-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 601 3.9% 0-4 (197) -24.6% 5-19 3,704 24.2% 5-19 (293) -7.3% 20-34 3,155 20.6% 20-34 59 1.9% 35-64 5, 55M 36.1% 35-64 229 4.3% 65+ 2,319 15.1% 65+ 406 21.2% TOTALS 15,312 100.0% TOTALS 204 1.3% *LOW SERIES POPROI DATE: 10/11/94 FIGURES ROUNDED 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 510 264 246 3.4% (91) (47) (44) 5-9 779 404 375 5.20/c (96) (50) (46) 10-14 691 360 331 4. 651/o (226) (120) (106) 15-19 1,789 930 859 12.01/6 (123) (42) (81) 20-24 1,344 698 646 9.0% 22 127 (105) 25-29 679 313 366 4.5% (17) (17) (0) 30-34 998 566 432 6.7% (139) (163) 24 35-39 789 420 370 5.3% (71) (27) (43) 40- 1,184 736 448 7.9% 41 196 (155) 45-49 807 439 368 5.4% (377) (175) (201) 50-54 1,042 495 547 7.0% 83 32 52 55-59 1,025 528 497 6.9% 231 110 121 60-64 856 428 429 5.7% 262 139 123 65-69 657 305 352 4.4% 121 74 47 70-74 497 197 299 3.3% (144) (48) (96) 75-79 415 136 279 2.8% (85) (55) (29) 80-84 457 ill 346 3.1% 90 10 81 85 + 419 110 309 2.8% 143 36 107 TOTALS 14,938 7,439 7,498 100.0% (374) (22) (352) PERCENT 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% NA 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 2000-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 510 3.4% 0-4 (91) -15.1% 5-19 3,259 21.8% 5-19 (445) -12.0% 20-34 3,020 20.2% 20-34 (134) -4.3% 35-64 5,703 38.20/a 35-64 170 3.1% 65+ 2,445 16.4% 65+ 126 5.4% TOTALS 14,938 100.0% TOTALS (374) -2.4% *LOW SERIES POPROI 2 HARBORCREEK DATE: 10/11/94 POPULATION PROJEC11ON MOST LIKELY SERIES FIGURES ROUNDED 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 734 380 353 4.4% (64) (35) (30) 5-9 960 489 471 5.7% (160) (71) (89) 10-14 1,074 559 515 6.4% (99) (43) (56) 15-19 1,956 991 965 10.1% 252 98 154 20-24 1,327 750 577 6.4% 87 (11) 98 25-29 1,081 509 572 6.4% 322 1.57 165 30-34 1,491 911 580 8.8% 394 376 18 35-39 1,043 526 517 6.2% (221) (102) (119) 40-44 1,263 602 661 7.5% 212 97 115 45-49 1,326 682 644 7.9% 409 195 214 50-54 1,086 523 563 6.4% 421 212 209 55-59 891 469 422 5.3% 246 151 95 6G-64 630 299 331 3.7% (132) (60) (72) 65-69 558 256 302 3.3% (90) (65) (25) 70-74 664 257 408 3.9% 140 29 112 75-79 570 229 341 3.4% 228 98 130 80-84 404 119 286 2.4% 181 54 128 85+ 301 83 218 1.8% 125 32 93 TOTALS 17,360 8,634 8,727 100.0% 2,252 1,112 1,141 PERCENT 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% NA 100.0% 49.4% 50.60/a AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 1990-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 734 4.20/o 0-4 (64) -8.1% 5-19 3,990 23.0% 5-19 (7) -0.2% 20-34 3,899 22.5% 20-34 803 25.9% 35-64 6,239 35.9% 35-64 935 17.6% 65+ 2,498 14.4% 65+ 585 30.6% TOTALS 17,360 100.0% TOTALS 2,252 14.9% *MCST LIKELY POPROI 3 DATE: 10/11/94 FIGURES ROUNDED 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 723 375 348 3.910/0 (11) (6) (5) 5-9 994 506 488 5.4% 35 18 17 10-14 992 515 478 5.4% (82) (44) (38) 15-19 1,969 1,010 959 8.0% 13 19 (6) 20-24 1,492 733 759 5.4% 165 (17) 182 25-29 1,091 496 595 5.9% 10 (13) 23 30-34 1,301 751 550 7.1% (190) (160) (30) 35-39 1,494 763 730 8.1% 451 238 213 40 44 1,715 1,030 685 9.3% 453 428 25 45-49 1,100 573 527 6.0% (226) (108) (118) 50-54 1,311 62.6 685 7.1% 225 103 121 55-59 1,295 660 635 7.0% 404 191 213 60-64 1,035 506 529 5.6% 404 206 198 65-69 771 380 391 4.2% 213 124 89 70-74 551 .215 336 3.0% (113) (42) (71) 75-79 500 127 373 2.7% (70) (102) 32 80-84 530 148 382 2.9% 125 29 96 85+ 577 288 288 3.1% 275 205 70 TOTALS 19,440 9,701 9,739 100.0% 2,079 1,067 1,012 PERCENT 100.0% 45.2% 54.8% NA 100.0% 51.3% 48.7% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 2000-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 723 3.7% 0-4 (11) -1.5% 5-19 3,955 20.3% 5-19 (34) -0.9% 2G-34 3,884 20.00/6 20-34 (15) -0.4% 35-64 7,949 40.9016 35-64 1,709 27.4% 65+ 2,929 15.1% 65+ 430 17.2% TOTALS 19,440 100.0% TOTALS 2,079 12.0% *MOST LIKELY POPROI 4 HARBORCREEK DATE: 10/11 /94 POPULATION PROJECTION HIGH SERIES FIGURES ROUNDED 2000* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 830 429 401 4.6% 32 14 18 5-9 992 514 478 5.5% (128) (46) (82) 10-14 1,177 616 560 6.5% 4 14 (11) 15-19 1,900 1,091 809 9.20/o 196 198 (2) 2D-24 1,266 665 601 5.6% 26 (96) 122 25-29 1,425 676 749 7.90/6 666 324 342 30-34 1,779 1,140 638 9.9% 682 605 76 35-39 1,175 610 564 6.5% .(89) (18) (72) 40-44 1,314 621 694 7.3% 263 116 148 45-49 1,398 726 672 7.8% 481 239 242 @@54 1,156 559 597 6.4% 491 248 243 55-59 941 496 445 5.20/c 296 178 118 60-64 631 306 325 3.5% (131) (53) (78) 65-69 548 236 312 3.0% (100) (85) (15) 70-74 650 249 401 3.61/o 126 21 105 75-79 610 234 377 3.4% 268 103 166 80-84 420 117 303 2.3% 197 52 145 85+ 311 83 228 1.7% 135 32 103, TOTALS 18,523 9,368 9,155 100.0% 3,415 1,846 1,569 PERCENT. 100.00/c 45.2% 54.8% NA 100.00/0 54.1% 45.9% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 199G-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 830 4.5% 0-4 32' 4.1% 5-19 4,068 2 2. (r/c 5-19 -71 1.8% 20-34 4,470 24.1% 20-34 1,374 44.4% 35-64 6,615 35.7% 35-64 1,311 24.7% 65+ 2,539 13.7% 65+ 626 32.7% TOTALS 18,523 100.0% TOTALS 3,415 22.6% *HIGH SERIES POPROI 5 DATE: 10/11/94 FIGURES ROUNDED 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 888 459 429 4.2% 57 30 28 5-9 1,117 579 538 5.30/a 126 65 61 10-14 1,233 642 591 5.8% 56 26 30 15-19 1,972 1,027 945 6.90/0 72 (64) 136 20-24 1,527 808 719 4.8% 261 143 118 25-29 1,390 641 749 6.6% (36) (35) (1) 30-34 1,440- 816 623 6.8% (33.q) (324) (15) 35-39 2,221 1,180 1,041 10.5% 1,046 570 476 40-44 2,142 1,332 810 10.1% 828 711 116 45-49 1,304 710 594 6.2% (93) (15) (78) 50-54 1,455 691 764 6.9% 299 133 167 55-59 1,444 744 760 6.8% 503 248 255 60-64 1,108 553 555 5.2% 477 247 230 65-69 800 371 429 3.8% 252 135 117 70-74 537 213 324 2.5% (112) (35) (77) 75-79 529 173 356 2.5% (81) (60) (21) 80-84 525 128 397 2.5% 105 11 94 85+ 567 149 418 2.7% 256 66 190 TOTALS 22,201 11,219 10,981 100.0% 3,678 1,851 1,827 PERCENT 1 OO.Cr/o 50.5% 49.5% NA 100.0% 50.3% 49.7% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 200040 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 888 4.0% 0-4 57 6.9% 5-19 4,322 19.5% 5-19 254 6.2% 20-34 4,356 19.6% 20-34 (114) -2.5% 35-64 9,675 4 3. Vlo 35-64 3,061 46.3% 65+ 2,959 13.3% 65+ 420 16.5% TOTALS 22,201 100.0% TOTALS 3,678 19.9% *HIGH SERIES POPROI 6 HARBORCREEK DATE: 10/11/94 AIG/A ZERO NET MIGRATION YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 1 0,-=49 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 15,114 6 0.0% 2010* 14,831 (283) -1.9% AIG/A HIGHEST YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 18,523 3,415 22.6% 2010* 22,201 3,678 19.9% AIG/A MOST LIKELY YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.20/6 2000* 17,360 2,252 14.90/6 2010* 19,440 Z079 12.0% AIG/A LOWEST YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 282 7.8% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.90/6 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.20/c 2000* 15,312 204 1.3% 2010* 14,938 (374) -2.4% 7 APPENDIX B GENERAL DATA OF THE BACKGROUND AND PROJECTION SERIES FOR THE HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP PORTION OF THE ERIE COUNTY DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS REPORT HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGElA REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 HARBORCREEK 1970 POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 5-YEAR AGE OF 1970 1970 1970 % OF OF BIRTH COHORT TOTAL* MALE* FEMALE* TOTAL 1966-70 0-4 984 492 492 8.2% 1961-65 5-9 1,343 690 653 11.2% 1956-60 10-14 1,448 749 699 12.0% 1951-55 15-19 1,419 747 672 11.8% 1946-50 20-24 763 349 414 6.3% 1941-45 25-29 673 312 361 5.6% 1936-40 30-34 648 314 334 5.4% 1931-35 35-39 719 342 377 6.0% 1926-30 40-44 826 389 437 6.9% 1921-25 45-49 809 410 399 6.7% 1916-20 50-54 709 355 354 5.9% 1911-15 55-59 552 285 267 4.6% 1906-10 60-64 398 200 198 3.3% 1901-05 65-69 240 117 123 2.0% 1896-00 70-74 207 100 107 1.7% 1891-95 75-79 145 64 81 1.2% 1886-90 80-84 95 35 60 0.8% 1860-85 85+ 60 25 35 0.5% TOTALS 12,038 5,975 6,063 100.0% PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG AGE OF 1970 1970 1900 1,687 NA NA COHORT TOTAL % 1910 2,074 387 22.9% 0-4 984 8.2% 1920** 2.212 138 6.7% 5-19 4,210 35.0% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 20-34 2,084 17.3% 1940 3,602 712 24.6% 35-64 4,013 33.3% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 65+ 747 6.2% 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% TOTALS 12,038 100.0% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1975 13,341 1,303 10.8% 1980 14,644 1,303 9.8% SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS 1970 1985 14,876 232 1.6% *ERIE CO. POPULATION ANALYSIS ('72). 1990 15,108 232 1.6% WELSEYVILLE B. FROM MILLCREEK & HARBORCREEK - 1912 POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE 2A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 HARBORCREEK 1980 POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1970-80 1970-80 1970-80 AGE OF 1980 1980 1980 % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 1,021 528 493 7.0% 37 36 1 5-9 1,148 595 553 7.8% (195) (95) (100) 10-14 1,362 686 676 9.3% (86) (63) (23) 15-19 1,859 973 886 12.7% 440 226 214 20-24 1,178 632 546 8.0% 415 283 132 25-29 1,114 531 583 7.6% 441 219 222 30-34 1,009 491 518 6.9% 361 177 184 35-39 978 508 470 6.7% 259 166 93 40-44 729 342 387 5.0% (97) (47) (50) 45-49 745 371 374 5.1% (64) (39) (25) 50-54 853 404 449 5.8% 144 49 95 55-59 780 392 388 5.3% 228 107 121 60-64 633 328 305 4.3% 235 128 107 65-69 438 199 239 3.0% 198 82 116 70-74 315 130 185 2.2% 108 30 78 75-79 213 80 133 1.5% 68 16 52 80-84 151 48 103 1.0% 56 13 43 85+ 118 39 79 0.8% 58 14 44 TOTALS 14,644 7,277 7,367 100.0% 2,606 1,302 1,304 PERCENT 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% NA 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% AGE OF 1980 1980 AGE OF 1970-80 1970-80 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 1,021 7.0% 0-4 37 3.8% 5-19 4,369 29.8% 5-19 159 3.8% 20-34 3,301 22.5% 20-34 1,217 58.4% 35-64 4,718 32.2% 35-64 705 17.6% 65+ 8.4% 65+ 488 65.3% TOTALS 14,644 100.0% TOTALS 2,606 21.6% SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS 1980 POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE3A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1990 POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1980-90 1980-90 1980-90 AGE OF 1990 1990 1990 % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT. TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 798 415 383 5.3% (223) (113) (110) 5-9 1,120 560 560 7.4% (28) (35) 7 10-14 1,173 602 571 7.8% (189) (84) (105) 15-19 1,704 893 811 11.3% (155) (80) (75) 20-24 1,240 761 479 8.2% 62 129 (67) 25-29 759 352 407 5.0% (355) (179) (176) 30-34 1,097 535 562 7.3% 88 44 44 35-39 1,264 628 636 8.4% 286 120 166 40-44 1,051 505 546 7.0% 322 163 159 45-49 917 487 430 6.1% 172 116 56 50-54 665 311 354 4.4% (188) (93) (95) 55-59 645 318 327 4.3% (135) (74) (61) 60-64 762 359 403 5.0% 129 31 98 65-69 648 321 327 4.3% 210 122 88 70-74 524 228 296 3.5% 209 98 ill 75-79 342 131 211 2.3% 129 51 78 80-84 223 65 158 1.5% 72 17 55 85+ 176 51 125 1.2% 58 12 46 TOTALS 15,108 7,522 7,586 100.0% 464 245 219 PERCENT 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% NA 100.0% 52.8% 47.2% AGE OF 1990 1990 AGE OF 1980-90 1980-90 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 798 5.3% 0-4 (223) -21.8% 5-19 3,997 26.5% 5-19 (372) -8.5% 20-34 3,096 20.5% 20-34 (205) -6.2% 35-64 5,304 35.1% 35-64 586 12.4% 65+ 1,913 12.7% 65+ 678 54.9% TOTALS 15,108 100.0% TOTALS. 464 3.2% SOURCE: U.S. CENSUS 1990 POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE 4A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 NUMBER BIRTH NUMBER DEATH BIRTHS- % DEATHS YEAR BIRTHS RATE* DEATHS RATE* DEATHS OF BIRTHS 1970 166 13.8% 83 6.9% 83 50.0% 1971 ** 177 14.7% 80 6.6% 97 45.2% 1972** 144 12.0% 86 7.1% 58 59.7% 1973** 136 11.3% 79 6.6% 57 58.1% 1974** 151 12.5% 88 7.3% 63 58.3% 1975** 150 11.2% 90 6.7% 60 60.0% 1976** 163 12.20/6 100 7.50/6 63 612% 1977** 152 11.4% 77 5.8% 75 50.7% 1978** 173 13.00/6 86 6.4% 87 49.7% 1979** 144 10.8% 90 6.7% 54 62.5% 1980 156 10.7% 101 6.9% 55 64.7% 1981 ** 163 11.1% 92 6.3% 71 56.4% 1982** 155 10.6% 97 6.6% 58 62.6% 1983** 155 10.6% 99 6.8% 56 63.9% 1984** 166 11.3% 123 8.4% 43 74.1% 1985** 141 9.5% 116 7.8% 25 82.3% 1986** 110 7.4% 122 8.2% (12) 110.9% 1987** 94 6.3% 115 7.7% (21) 122.3% 1988** 103 6.9% 115 7.7% (12) 111.7% 1989** 126 8.5% 117 7.9% 9 92.9% 1990 109 7.2% 113 7.5% (4) 103.7% 1970-89 2,925 NA 1,956 NA 969 66.9% 1970-79 1980-89 %CHANG 1970-89 AVG. AVG. AVG. AVG. AVG. DEATHS/ BIRTHS BIRTHS BIRTHS BIRTHS BIRTHS 155.6 136.9 -12.0% 146.3 66.9% DEATHS DEATHS DEATHS DEATHS 85.9 109.7 27.7% 97.8 NATURAL CHANGE MIGRATION 1970-90 CHANGE % CHNG CHANGE RATE 1970-79 697 5.8% 1970-80 1,909 15.9% 1980-89 272 1.9% 1980-90 192 1.3% *STATE DATA CENTER (RATES PER 1,000) "RATES ARE BASED ON A/G/A ESTIMATED POPULATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE5A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 5-YEAR SURVIVAL RATES FEMALE 1990 1990 FERT. COHORT BIRTHS % RATE# AGE OF MALE FEMALE 10-14 0 0.0% 0.0% COHORT RATES* RATES* 15-19 10 9.2% 12.3% BIRTHS 0.9853 0.9879 20-24 27 24.8% 56.4% 0-4 0.9975 0.9979 25-29 34 31.2% 83.5% 5-9 0.9988 0.9991 30-34 27 24.8% 48.0% 10-14 0.9964 0.9988 35-39 9 8.3% 14.2% 15-19 0.9925 0.9978 40-44 2 1.8% 3.7% 20-24 0.9912 0.9971 45-49 0 0.0% 0.0% 25-29 0.9915 0.9965 UNKWN 0 0.0% 0.0% 30-34 0.9902 0.9953 TOTAL 109 100.0% 24.5% 35-39 0.9859 0.9924 40-44 0.9776 0.9874 AGE OF 1990 %1990 DEATH 45-49 0.9633 0.9802 COHORT DEATHS DEATHS RATE# 50-54 0.9424 0.9699 0-4 2 1.8% 2.5% 55-59 0.9099 0.953 5-19 1 0.9% 0.4% 60-64 0.8623 0.9275 20-24 1 0.9% 0.3% 65-69 0.7975 0.889 25-34 1 0.9% 0.5% 70-74 0.7134 0.8304 35-44 3 2.7% 1.3% 75-79 0.6109 0.7386 45-54 6 5.3% 3.8% 80-84 0.4896 0.6061 55-64 13 11.5% 9.2% 85+ 0.319 0.3916 65-74 28 24.8% 23.9% 75-84 34 30.1% 60.2% 1990 FERTILITY RATE*** 85+ 24 21.2% 136.4% COHORT MALE FEMALE TOTAL 113 100.0% 7.5% 0-4 0.101441 0.097463 #PER 1,000 FERTILE FEMALES AGE 1970 1980 1990 2000** 2010** 1970-90 1990-10 COHORT FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE %CHNG %CHNG 5-39 3,510 4,232 4,026 3,586 3,448 14.7% -14.4% 10-44 3,294 4,066 4,012 3,751 3,553 21.8% -11.4% *CAPP POPULATION PROGRAM (KLOSTERMAN) **ZERO NET MIGRATION ***SMALL TOWN PLANNING HANDBOOK FORMULA POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE6A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION HARBdRCREE K 1995* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1990-95 1990-95 1990-95 AGE OF 1995 1995 1995 % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 798 407 391 5.3% (0) (8) 8 5-9 796 414 382 5.3% (324) (146) (178) 10-14 1,119 559 559 7.4% (54) (43) (12) 15-19 1,170 600 570 7.7% (534) (293) (241) 20-24 1,696 886 809 11.2% -456 125 330 25-29 1,232 754 478 8.1% 473 402 71 30-34 755 349 406 5.0% (342) (186) (156) 35-39 1,089 530 559 7.2% (175) (98) (77) 40-44 1,250 619 631 8.3% 199 114 85 45-49 1,033 494 539 6.8% 116 7 109 50-54 891 469 421 5.9% 226 158 67 55-59 636 293 343 4.2% (9) (25) 16 60-64 601 289 312 4.0% (161) (70) (91) 65-69 683 310 374 4.5% 35 (11) 47 70-74 547 256 291 3.6% 23 28 (5) 75-79 408 163 246 2.7% 66 32 35 80-84 236 80 156 1.6% 13 15 (2) 85+ 193 48 145 1.3% 17 (3) 20 TOTALS 15,133 7,520 7,612 100.0% 25 (2) 26 PERCENT 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% NA 100.0% -7.3% 107.3% AGE OF 1995 1995 AGE OF 1990-95 1990-95 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 798 5.3% 0-4 0 0.0% 5-19 3,085 20.4% 5-19 (912) -22.8% 20-34 3,682 24.3% 20-34 586 18.9% 35-64 5,500 36.3% 35-64 196 3.7% 65+ 2,067 13.7% 65+ 154 8.1% TOTALS 15,133 100.0% TOTALS 25 0.2% ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE7A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK 2000* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1995-00 1995-00 1995-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT. TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 801 408 392 5.3% 3 1 1 5-9 796 406 390 5.3% 0 (8) 8 10-14 795 413 382 5.3% (324) (146) (178) 15-19 1,116 557 559 7.4% (54) (43) (11) 20-24 1,164 595 569 7.7% (531) (291) (240) 25-29 1,685 879 807 11.2% 453 124 329 30-34 1,224 748 476 8.1% 469 399 70 35-39 749 346 404 5.0% (340) (184) (156) 40-44 1,077 522 555 7.1% (173) (97) (76) 45-49 1,228 605 623 8.1% 196 112 84 50-54 1,004 476 528 6.6% 113 6 107 55-59 851 442 409 5.6% 214 149 65 60-64 594 267 327 3.9% (7) (23) 16 65-69 539 250 289 3.6% (145) (60) (85) 70-74 579 247 332 3.8% 32 (9) 42 75-79 424 183 241 2.8% 16 20 (4) 80-84 281 99 182 1.9% 45 19 26 85+ 206 55 151 1.4% 13 6 6 TOTALS 15,114 7,497 7,617 100.0% (18) (23) 5 PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA 100.0% 125.1% -25.1% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 2000-05 2000-05 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 801 5.3% 0-4 3 0.3% 5-19 2,708 17.9% 5-19 (378) -12.2% 20-34 4,074 27.0% 20-34 392 10.6% 35-64 5,504 36.4% 35-64 4 0.1% 65+ 2,028 13.4% 65+ (39) -1.9% TOTALS 15,114 100.00/0 TOTALS (18) -0.1% ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE8A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK 2005* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-05 2000-05 2000-05 AGE OF 2005* 2005* 2005* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 746 381 366 5.0% (55) (28) (27) 5-9 799 407 392 5.3% 3 1 1 10-14 795 405 390 5.3% 0 (8) 8 15-19 793 412 381 5.3% (323) (145) (177) 20-24 1,111 553 558 7.4% (54) (42) (11) 25-29 1,158 590 567 7.7% (528) (288) (239) 30-34 1,675 871 804 11.2% 451 123 328 35-39 1,214 741 474 8.1% 465 395 70 40-44 741 341 401 4.9% (336) (182) (155) 45-49 1,059 511 548 7.1% (170) (95) (75) 50-54 1,194 583 611 8.0% 190 107 82 55-59 961 448 513 6.4% 110 6 104 60-64 792 402 390 5.3% 198 136 62 65-69 533 230 303 3.6% (5) (20) 14 70-74 456 199 257 3.0% (123) (48) (75) 75-79 452 176 276 3.0% 28 (7) 35 80-84 290 112 178 1.9% 9 12 (3) 85+ 235 66 169 1.6% 30 12 18 TOTALS 15,004 7,428 7,577 100.0% (110) (70) (40) PERCENT 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% NA 100.0% 63.4% 36.6% AGE OF 2005* 2005* AGE OF 2000-05 2000-05 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 746 5.0% 0-4 (55) -6.8% 5-19 2,388 15.9% 5-19 (320) -11.8% 20-34 3,943 26.3% 20-34 (130) -3.2% 35-64 5,961 39.7% 35-64 457 8.3% 65+ 1,967 13.1% 65+ (62) -3.0% TOTALS 15,004 100.0% TOTALS (110) -0.7% ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGEgA REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2005-10 2005-10 2005-10 AGE OF 2010* .2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 713 364 350 4.8% (33) (17) (16) 5-9 744 380 365 5.0% (55) (28) (27) 10-14 798 407 391 5.4% 3 1 1 15-19 793 404 389 5.3% 0 (8) 8 20-24 789 409 381 5.3% (321) (144) (177) 25-29 1,104 548 556 7.4% (53) (42) (11) 30-34 1,151 585 565 7.8% (525) (286) (239) 35-39 1,663 862 800 11.2% 449 122 327 40-44 1,200 730 470 8.1% 459 389 70 45-49 729 333 396 4.9% (330) (178) (153) 50-54 1,029 492 537 6.9% (165) (91) (74) 55-59 1,142 549 592 7.7% 181 101 80 60-64 896 408 488 6.0% 104 6 99 65-69 708 347 361 4.8% 175 117 58 70-74 453 183 270 3.1% (3) (16) 13 75-79 355 142 213 2.4% (97) (34) (63) 80-84 311 108 204 2.1% 22 (4) 26 85+ 250 76 174 1.7% 15 10 5 TOTALS 14,831 7,327 7,504 100.0% (174) (101) (73) PERCENT 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% NA 100.0% 58.0% 42.0% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2005-10 2005-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 713 4.8% 0-4 (33) -4.4% 5-19 2,336 15.8% 5-19 (52) -2.2% 20-34 3,044 20.5% 20-34 (899) -22.8% 35-64 6,659 44.9% 35-64 698 11.7% 65+ 2,078 14.0% 65+ 112 5.7% TOTALS 14,831 100.0% TOTALS (174) -1.2% ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.10A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1990 TO 2010* POPULATION CHANGE 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 (85) (51) (33) -10.6% -12.3% -8.7% 5-9 (376) (180) (195) -33.5% -32.2% -34.8% 10-14 (375) (195) (180) -32.0% -32.4% -31.5% 15-19 (911) (489) (422) -53.4% -54.8% -52.0% 20-24 (451) (352) (98) -36.3% -46.3% -20.6% 25-29 345 196 149 45.5% 55.8% 36.6% 30-34 54 50 3 4.9% 9.4% 0.6% 35-39 399 234 164 31.5% 37.3% 25.8% 40-44 149 225 (76) 14.2% 44.6% -13.9% 45-49 (188) (154) (34) -20.5% -31.6% -8.0% 50-54 364 181 183 54.8% 58.2% 51.8% 55-59 497 231 265 77.0% 72.8% 81.2% 60-64 134 49 85 17.6% 13.6% 21.2% 65-69 60 26 34 9.3% 8.1% 10.5% 70-74 (71) (45) (26) -13.5% -19.6% -8.9% 75-79 13 11 2 3.9% 8.4% 1.1% 80-84 88 43 46 39.6% 65.5% 29.0% 85+ 74 25 49 42.1% 48.4% 39.5% TOTALS (277) (195) (82) -1.8% -2.6% -1.1% PERCENT 100.0% 70.3% 29.7% 100.0% 141.3% 59.1% AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 (85) 30.5% 0-4 (85) -10.6% 5-19 (1,661) 598.7% 5-19 (1,661) -41.6% 20-34 (52) 18.7% 20-34 (52) -1.7% 35-64 1,355 -488.4% 35-64 1,355 25.5% 65+ 165 -59.5% 65+ 165 8.6% TOTALS (277) 100.0% TOTALS (277) -1.8% *ZERO NET MIGRATION "REPRESENTS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. 11A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE CHARACTERISTICS AGE OF 1970 1970 COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 984 8.2% 5-19 4,210 35.0% 20-34 2,084 17.3% 35-64 4,013 33.3% 65+ 747 6.2% TOTALS 12,038 100.0% AGE OF 1980 1980 AGE OF 1990 1990 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 1,021 7.0% 0-4 798 5.3% 5-19 4,369 29.8% 5-19 3,997 26.5% 20-34 3,301 22.5% 20-34 3,096 20.5% 35-64 4,718 32.2% 35-64 5,304 35.1% 65+ 1,235 8.4% 65+ 1,91 3 12.7% TOTALS 14,644 100.0% TOTALS 15,108 100.0% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 . 801 5.3% 0-4 713 4.8% 5-19 2,708 17.9% 5-19 2,336 15.8% 20-34 4,074 27.0% 20-34 3,044 20.5% 35-64 5,504 36.4% 35-64 6,659 44.9% 65+ 2,028 13.4% 65+ 2,078 14.0% TOTALS 15,114 100.0% TOTALS 14,831 100.0% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. 12A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE BY SEX AGE OF 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 3,775 31.4% 1,931 51.2% 1,844 48.8% 15-24 2,182 18.1% 1,096 50.2% 1,086 49.8% 25-34 1,321 11.0% 626 47.4% 695 52.6% 35-44 1,545 12.8% 731 47.3% 814 52.7% 45-54 1,518 12.6% 765 50.4% 753 49.6% 55-64 950 7.9% 485 51.1% 465 48.9% 65-74 447 3.7% 217 48.5% 230 51.5% 75+ 300 2.5% 124 41.3% 176 58.7% TOTALS 12,038 100.0% 5,975 49.6% 6,063 50.4% AGE OF 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 3,531 24.1% 1,809 51.2% 1,722 48.8% 15-24 3,037 20.7% 1,605 52.8% 1,432 47.2% 25-34 2,123 14.5% 1,022 48.1% 1,101 51.9% 35-44 1,707 11.7% 850 49.8% 857 50.2% 45-54 1,598 10.9% 775 48.5% 823 51.5% 55-64 1,413 9.6% 720 51.0% 693 49.0% 65-74 753 5.1% 329 43.7% 424 56.3% 75+ 482 3.3% 167 34.6% 315 65.4% TOTALS 14,644 100.0% 7,277 49.7% 7,367 50.3% AGE OF 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 3,091 20.5% 1,577 51.0% 1,514 49.0% 15-24 2,944 19.5% 1,654 56.2% 1,290 43.8% 25-34 1,856 12.3% 887 47.8% 969 52.2% 35-44 2,315 15.3% 1,133 48.9% 1,182 51.1% 45-54 1,582 10.5% 798 50.4% 784 49.6% 55-64 1,407 9.3% 677 48.1% 730 51.9% 65-74 1,172 7.8% 549 46.8% 623 53.2% 75+ 741 4.9% 247 33.3% 494 66.7% TOTALS 15,108 100.0% 7,522 49.8% 7,586 50.2% POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. 13A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE BY SEX AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,392 15.8% 1,228 51.3% 1,164 48.7% 15-24 2,281 15.1% 1,153 50.5% 1,128 49.5% 25-34 2,909 19.21/o 1,626 55.9% 1,283 44.1% 35-44 1,827 12.1% 868 47.5% 959 52.5% 45-54 2,233 14.8% 1,081 48.4% 1,152 51.6% 55-64 1,445 9.6% 709 49.1% 736 50.9% 65-74 1,118 7.4% 496 44.4% 621 55.6% 75+ 911 6.0% 337 37.0% 574 63.0% TOTALS 15,114 100.0% 7,497 49.6% 7,617 50.4% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,256 15.2% 1,150 51.0% 1,106 49.0% 15-24 1,583 10.7% 813 51.4% 770 48.6% 25-34 2,255 15.2% 1,133 50.3% 1,121 49.7% 35-44 2,863 19.3% 1,593 55.6% 1,270 44.4% 45-54 1,758 11.9% 825 46.9% 933 53.1% 55-64 2,038 13.7% 957 47.0% 1,081 53.0% 65-74 1,161 7.8% 530 45.7% 631 54.3% 75+ 917 6.2% 325 35.5% 592 64.5% TOTALS 14,831 100.0% 7,327 49.4% 7,504 50.6% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.14A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 OLDER CITIZENS AGE OF 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 1970 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 240 32.1% 117 48.8% 123 51.3% 70-74 207 27.7% 100 48.3% 107 51.7% 75-79 145 19.4% 64 44.1% 81 55.9% 80-84 95 12.7% 35 36.8% 60 63.2% 85+ 60 8.0% 25 41.7% 35 58.3% TOTALS 747 100.0% 341 45.6% 406 54.4% AGE OF 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 1980 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 438 35.5% 199 45.4% 239 54.6% 70-74 315 25.5% 130 41.3% 185 58.7% 75-79 213 17.2% 80 37.6% 133 62.4% 80-84 151 12.2% 48 31.8% 103 68.2% 85+ 118 9.6% 39 33.1% 79 66.9% TOTALS 1,235 100.0% 496 40.2% 739 59.8% AGE OF 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990 COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 648 33.9% 321 49.5% 327 50.5% 70-74 524 27.4% 228 43.5% 296 56.5% 75-79 342 17.9% 131 38.3% 211 61.7% 80-84 223 11.7% 65 29.1% 158 70.9% 85+ 176 9.2% 51 29.0% 125 71.0% TOTALS 1,913 100.0% 796 41.6% 1,117 58.4% POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.15A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7126/94 OLDER CITIZENS AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE, % 65-69 539 26.6% 250 46.3% 289 53.7% 70-74 579 28.6% 247 42.6% 332 57.4% 75-79 424 20.9% 183 43.1% 241 56.9% 80-84 281 13.8% 99 35.4% 182 64.6% 85+ 206 10.1% 55 26.5% 151 73.5% TOTALS 2,028 100.0% 833 41.1% 1,195 58.9% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 708 34.1% 347 49.0% 361 51.0% 70-74 453 21.8% 183 40.5% 270 59.5% 75-79 355 17.1% 142 39.9% 213 60.1% 80-84 311 15.0% 108 34.6% 204 65.4% 85+ 250 12.0% 76 30.3% 174 69.7% TOTALS 2,078 100.0% 856 41.2% 1,223 58.8% *ZERO NET MIGRATION HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.16A REPORT A HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION CHANGE 1920-2010 YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1920 2,212 138 6.7% 1920 2,212 .138 6.7% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 1940 3,602 712 24.6% 1940 3,602 712 24.6% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 15,114 6 0.0% 20009 18,134 3,026 20.0% 2010* 14,831 (284) -1.9% 2010@ 21,765 3,632 20.0% 1960-10 14,831 4,262 40.3% 1960-10 21,765 11,196 105.9% EX. OF TOTAL POPULATIONS IF PAST % CHANGES WERE TO OCCURE AGAIN. 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG YEAR TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL@ 2000 18,830 31,353 21,361 17,208 18,379 15,587 18,134 2010 23,469 65,064 30,203 19,600 22,357 16,081 21,765 1920-40 1930-50 1940-60 1950-70 1960-80 1970-90 % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG YEAR TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL" 2010 24,602 39,077 44,330 24,330 20,933 18,961 21,408 RANGE OF POPULATION CHANGES 2000 2010 RANGE RANGE LOWEST 15,587 16,081 AMOUNT % HIGHEST 31,353 65,064 49,477 327.5% *ZERO NET MIGRATION @1950 - 1990 AVERAGE DECENIAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE **l 950-1990 20 YEAR AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE END OF REPORT A POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE113 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 REPORT B IS USED TO DETERMINE THE 1980 -1990 NET MIGRATION RATES. 5-YEAR SURVIVAL RATE BIRTH DEATH YEAR BIRTHS RATE# DEATHS RATE# AGE OF MALE MALE 1980 156 10.7% 101 6.9% COHORT RATES* RATES* 1981 163 11.1% 92 6.3% BIRTHS 0.9853 0.9879 1982 155 10.6% 97 6.6% 0-4 0.9975 0.9979 1983 155 10.6% 99 6.8% 5-9 0.9988 0.9991 1984 166 11.3% 123 8.4% 10-14 0.9964 0.9988 1985 141 9.5% 116 7.8% 15-19 0.9925 0.9978 1986 110 7.4% 122 8.2% 20-24 0.9912 0.9971 1987 94 6.3% 115 7.7% 25-29 0.9915 0.9965 1988 103 6.9% 115 7.7% 30-34 0.9902 0.9953 1989 126 8.5% 117 7.9% 35-39 0.9859 0.9924 TOTAL 1,369 NA, 1,097 NA 40-44 0.9776 0.9874 45-49 0.9633 0.9802 1980 - 1990 NATURAL CHANGE 50-54 0.9424 0.9699 CHANGE % CHNG 55-59 0.9099 0.953 1980-90 272 1.9% 60-64 0.8623 0.9275 65-69 0.7975 0.889 1980 TO 1990 NET MIGRATION 70-74 0.7134 0.8304 NUMBER RATE 75-79 0.6109 0.7386 1980-90 192 1.3% 80-84 0.4896 0.6061 85+ 0.319 0.3916 1980 FERTILITY RATE@ COHORT MALE FEMALE 0-4 0.128064 0.123042 FERTILE FEMALES AGE 1970 1980 1990** 2000' 2010*** 1980-90 1990-00 COHORT FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE % CHNG % CHNGx 5-39 3,510 4,232 4,219 3,417 3,103 -0.3% -15.1% 10-44 3,294 4,066 4,231 3,571 3,242 4.1% -11.0% CAPP ***PROJECTED BASED ON 1980 ZERO NET MIGRATION ***PROJECTED BASED ON 1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE @SMALL TOWN PLANNING HANDBOOK FORMULA #PER 1,000 xl 990 ACTUAL NUMBER OF FEMALES POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE 2B REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO FIND MIGRATION RATES* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1985* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1980-85 1980-85 1980-85 AGE OF 1985* 1985* 1985* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 1,021 521 500 6.8% 0 (7) 7 5-9 1,019 527 492 6.8% (129) (68) (61) 10-14 1,147 594 553 7.6% (215) (92) (123) 15-19 1,359 684 675 9.0% (500) (211) 20-24 1,850 966 884 12.3% 672 334 338 25-29 1,171 626 544 7.8% 57 95 (39) 30-34 1,107 526 581 7.3% 98 35 63 35-39 1,002 486 516 6.6% 24 (22) 46 40-44 967 501 466 6.4% 238 159 79 45-49 716 334 382 4.7% (29) (37) 8 50-54 724 357 367 4.8% (129) (47) (82) 55-59 816 381 435 5.4% 36 (11) 47 60-64 726 357 370 4.8% 93 29 65 65-69 566 283 283 3.8% 128 84 44 70-74 371 159 212 2.5% 56 29 27 75-79 246 93 154 1.6% 33 13 21 80-84 147 49 98 1.0% (4) 1 (5) 85+ 129 36 93 0.9% 11 (3) 14 TOTALS 15,085 7,479 100.0% 441 202 239 PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA 100.0% 45.8% 54.2% AGE OF 1985* 1985* AGE OF 1980-85 1980-85 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 1,021 6.8% 0-4 0.0% 5-19 3,524 23.4% 5-19 (845) -19.3% 20-34 4,128 27.4% 20-34 K7 25.1% 35-64 4,952 32.8% 35-64 234 5.0% 65+ 1,460 9.7% 65+ 225 18.2% TOTALS 15,085 100.0% TOTALS 441 3.0% *1980 ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE313 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO FIND MIGRATION RATES* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1990* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1985-90 1985-90 1985-90 AGE OF 1990* 1990* 1990* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 1,063 542 521 6.9% 42 21 20 5-9 1,019 519 499 6.6% 0 (7) 7 10-14 1,018 526 492 6.6% (129) (68) (61) 15-19 1,144 592 552 7.4% (215) (91) (123) 20-24 1,352 678 674 8.7% (498) (287) (210) 25-29 1,839 957 881 11.9% 668 331 337 30-34 1,164 621 543 7.5% 56 95 (38) 35-39 1,100 521 578 7.1% 98 35 63 40-44 991 479 512 6.4% 24 (22) 45 45-49 950 490 461 6.1% 234 155 78 50-54 697 322 375 4.5% (27) (35) 8 55-59 692 337 356 4.5% (124) (44) (80) 60-64 761 346 415 4.9% 35 (10) 45 65-69 651 308 343 4.2% 85 25 60 70-74 477 226 251 3.1% 106 67 39 75-79 290 113 176 1.9% 43 20 23 80-84 170 57 113 1.1% 23 8 15 85+ 131 35 96 0.8% 2 (1) 3 TOTALS 15,507 7,670 7,837 100.0% 422 191 231 PERCENT 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% NA 100.0% 45.3% 54.7% AGE OF 1990* 1990* AGE OF 1985-90 1985-90 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 1,063 6.9% 0-4 42 4.1% 5-19 3,180 20.5% 5-19 (344) -9.8% 20-34 4,354 28.1% 20-34 226 5.5% 35-64 5,191 33.5% 35-64 239 4.8% 65+ 1,719 11.1% 65+ 259 17.8% TOTALS 15,507 100.00/0 TOTALS 422 2.8% *1980 ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE413 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1990 ACTUAL POPULATION & 1990 PROJECTED POPUL. 1990-90* 1990-90* 1990-90* 1990@90* 1990-90* 1990-90* AGE OF DIFF. DIFF. DIFF. % DIFF. % DIFF. % DIFF. COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 (265) (127) (138) -24.9% -23.4% -26.4% 5-9 101 41 61 9.9% 7.8% 12.2% 10-14 155 76 79 15.3% 14.4% 16.2% 15-19 560 301 259 49.0% 50.8% 47.0% 20-24 (112) 83 (195) -8.3% 12.2% -28.9% 25-29 (1,080) (605) (474) -58.7% -63.2% -53.8% 30-34 (67) (86) 19 -5.7% -13.9% 3.6% 35-39 164 107 58 15.0% 20.5% 10.0% 40-44 60 26 34 6.1% 5.4% 6.7% 45-49 (33) (3) (31) -3.5% -0.5% -6.6% 50-54 (32) (11) (21) -4.5% -3.4% -5.5% 55-59 (47) (19) (29) -6.8% -5.6% -8.0% 60-64 1 13 (12) 0.1% 3.6% -2.9% 65-69 (3) 13 (16) -0.4% 4.4% -4.7% 70-74 47 2 45 9.8% 1.1% 17.7% 75-79 52 1.8 35 18.1% 15.7% 19.6% 80-84 53 8 45 31.1% 14.7% 39.2% 85+ 45 16 29 33.8% 44.1% 30.1% TOTALS (399) (148) (251) -2.6% -1.9% -3.2% PERCENT 100.0% 37.1% 62.9% 100.0% 75.1% 124.4% 1990-90* 1990-90* AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE AGE OF 1990-90* 1990-90* COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 (265) 66.3% 0-4 (265) -33.2% 5-19 817 -204.6% 5-19 817 20.4% 20-34 (1,258) 315.20/6 20-34 (1,258) -40.6% 35-64 113 -28.3% 35-64 113 2.1% 65+ 194 -48.6% 65+ 194 10.1% TOTALS (399) 100.0% TOTALS (399) -2.6% *1980 ZERO NET MIGRATION "REPRESENTS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE513 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BASED ON 1980-1990 MIGRATION RATES HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2000* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 601 313 289 4.1% (197) (102) (94) 5-9 875 438 438 5.9% (245) (122) (122) 10-14 917 473 444 6.20% (256) (129) (127) 15-19 1,662 840 821 11,20/o (42) (53) 10 20-24 1,072 668 405 7.2% (168) (93) (74) 25-29 696 323 373 4.7% (63) (29) (34) 30-34 1,137 644 493 7.7% 40 109 (69) 35-39 860 416 444 5.8% (404) (212) (192) 40-44 1,143 550 592 7.7% 92 45 46 45-49 1,184 602 582 8.0% 267 115 152 50-54 959 459 499 6.5% 294 148 145 55-59 793 417 376 5.4% 148 99 49 60-64 594 276 318 4.0% (168) (83) (85) 65-69 536 260 276 3.6% (112) (61) (51) 70-74 641 250 391 4.3% 117 22 95 75-79 500 211 289 3.4% 158 80 78 80-84 367 114 253 2.5% 144 49 95 85+ 275 79 197 1.9% 99 28 72 TOTALS 14,812 7,335 7,477 100.0% (296) (187) (109) PERCENT 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% NA 100.0% 63.3% 36.7% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 1990-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 601 4.1% 0-4 (197) -24.6% 5-19 3,454 23.3% 5-19 (543) -13.6% 20-34 2,905 19.6% 20-34 (191) -6.2% 35-64 5,533 37.4% 35-64 229 4.3% 65+ 2,319 15.7% 65+ 406 21.2% TOTALS 14,812 100.0% TOTALS (296) -2.0% *1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE613 REPORTB HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2005* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-05 2000-05 2000-05 AGE OF 2005* 2005* 2005* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 710 362 348 4.9% 109 50 59 5-9 600 312 288 4.1% (275) (126) (150) 10-14 874 437 437 6.0% (42) (36) (6) 15-19 915 471 443 6.3% (747) (369) (378) 20-24 1,654 834 819 11.3% '581 166 415 25-29 1,065 662 403 7.3% 370 339 31 30-34 692 320 371 4.7% (446) (324) (122) 35-39 1,129 638 491 7.7% 268 222 47 40-44 851 410 441 5.8% (292) (140) (152) 45-49. 1,123 538 585 7.7% (61) (64) 3 50-54 1,150 580 570 7.9% 192 121 71 55-59 917 433 484 6.3% 124 15 108 60-64 738 380 358 5.1% 144 103 41 65-69 533 238 295 3.7% (3) (22) 19 70-74 453 208 245 3.1% (188) (42) (146) 75-79 503 178 325 3.5% 3 (33) 36 80-84 342 129 213 2.3% (24) 15 (40) 85+ 324 94 230 2.2% 49 16 34 TOTALS 14,573 7,225 7,348 100.0% (239) (109) (130) PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% AGE OF 2005* 2005* AGE OF 2000-05 2000-05 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 710 4.9% 0-4 109 18.1% 5-19 2,389 16.4% 5-19 (1,065) -30.8% 20-34 3,411 23.4% 20-34 505 17.4% 35-64 5,908 40.5% 35-64 375 6.8% 65+ 2,155 14.8% 65+ (163) -7.0% TOTALS 14,573 100.0% TOTALS (239) -1.6% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE713 REPORTB HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2005-10 2005-10 2005-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 680 347 333 4.8% (31) (16) (15) 5-9 709 361 347 5.0% 109 49 59 10-14 599 312 288 4.2% (275) (126) (150) 15-19 872 436 437 6.1% (42) (36) (6) 20-24 910 468 442 6.4% (744) (366) (377) 25-29 1,644 827 817 11.5% 579 165 414 30-34 1,058 656 402 7.4% 367 336 31 35-39 687 317 369 4.8% (442) (321) (121) 40-44 1,116 629 487 7.8% 265 218 46 45-49 836 401 435 5.9% (287) (137) (150) 50-54 1,092 518 573 7.6% (59) (62) 3 55-59 1,100 547 553 7.7% 183 114 69 60-64 855 394 462 6.0% 117 14 103 65-69 660 328 332 4.6% 127 89 38 70-74 452 190 262 3.2% (1) (18) 17 75-79 352 148 203 2.5% (151) (30) (121) 80-84 349 109 240 2.4% 6 (20) 27 85+ 313 93 219 2.2% (12) (1) (11) TOTALS 14,283 7,080 7,203 100.0% (291) (146) (145) PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA 100.0% 50.1% 49.9% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2005-10 2005-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 680 4.8% 0-4 (31) -4.3% 5-19 2,180 15.3% 5-19 (209) -8.7% 20-34 3,612 25.3% 20-34 202 5.9% 35-64 5,686 39.8% 35-64 (223) -3.8% 65+ 2,125 14.9% 65+ (31) -1.4% TOTALS 14,283 100.0% TOTALS (291) -2.0% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE813 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BASED ON 1980-1990 MIGRATION RATES HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 510 265 245 3.7% (91) (47) (44) 5-9 779 390 390 5.6% (96) (48) (48) 10-14 691 357 334 5.0% (226) (117) (109) 15-19 1,299 657 642 9.3% (362) (184) (179) 20-24 835 525 314 6.0% (238) (143) (90) 25-29 679 304 377 4.9% (17) (19) 5 30-34 998 565 416 7.2% (140) (79) (77) 35-39 789 382 406 5.7% (71) (34) (38) 40-44 1,183 663 520 8.5% 41 112 (73) 45-49 807 399 406 5.8% (377) (203) (176) 50-54 1,042 500 542 7.5% 83 41 42 55-59 1,024 516 509 7.4% 231 99 133 60-64 856 408 448 6.1% 262 132 131 65-69 657 342 317 4.7% 121 81 41 70-74 497 192 308 3.6% (144) (57) (83) 75-79 415 171 243 3.0% (85) (40) (45) 80-84 457 125 334 3.3% 90 11 81 85+ 418 134 285 3.0% 143 56 89 TOTALS 13,938 6,895 7,038 100.0% (874) (439) (440) PERCENT 100.0% 49.5% 50.5% NA 100.0% 50.2% 50.3% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 2000-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 510 3.7% 0-4 (91) -15.1% 5-19 2,770 19.9% 5-19 (684) -19.8% 20-34 2,511 18.0% 20-34 (394) -13.6% 35-64 5,702 40.90/6 35-64 169 3.1% 65+ 2,444 17.5% 65+ 126 5.4% TOTALS 13,938 100.0% TOTALS (874) -5.9% *1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE913 REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 1990-2010 POPULATION CHANGE (BASED ON 1980 -1990 NET MIGRATION) 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 (288) (150) (138) -27.1% -27.6% -26.5% 5-9 (341) (170) (170) -33.5% -32.8% -34.1% 10-14 (482) (245) (237) -47.4% -46.7% -48.2% 15-19 (405) (236) (169) -35.4% -39.9% -30.6% 20-24 (401) (236) (165) -29.6% -34.8% -24.4% 25-29 (78) (48) (30) -4.2% -5.0% -3.4% 30-34 (115) 30 (146) -9.9% 4.9% -26.8% 35-39 (476) (246) (230) -43.2% -47.2% -39.7% 40-44 131 158 (26) 13.2% 32.9% -5.1% 45-49 (112) (88) (24) -11.8% -18.0% -5.2% 50-54 377 189 188 54.2% 58.8% 50.2% 55-59 380 198 182 54.9% 58.8% 51.1% 60-64 94 49 45 12.4% 14.2% 10.9% 65-69 11 21 (10) 1.6% 6.8% -3.0% 70-74 (24) (36) 12 -4.9% -15.9% 4.9% 75-79 73 40 32 25.1% 35.7% 18.3% 80-84 236 60 176 138.6% 105.5% 155.1% 85+ 244 83 160 185.4% 235.7% 166.9% TOTALS (1,175) (627) (548) -7.6% -8.2% -7.0% PERCENT 100.0% 53.3% 46.7% 100.0% 107.8% 92.3% AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 (288) 24.5% 0-4 (288) -36.0% 5-19 (1,228) 104.6% 5-19 (1,228) -30.7% 20-34 (594) 50.5% 20-34 (594) -19.2% 35-64 395 -33.7% 35-64 395 7.5% 65+ 539 -45.9% 65+ 539 28.2% TOTALS (1,175) 100.0% TOTALS (1,175) -7.8% *1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE "REPRESENTS A PERCENT OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.10B REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE CHARACTERISTICS AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 601 4.1% 0-4 510 3.7% 5-19 3,454 23.3% 5-19 2,770 19.9% 20-34 2,905 19.6% 20-34 2,511 18.0% 35-64 5,533 37.4% 35-64 5,702 40.9% 65+ 2,319 15.7% 65+ 2,444 17.5% TOTALS 14,812 100.0% TOTALS 13,938 100.0% AGE BY SEX AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,393 16.20% 1,224 51.1% 1,170 48.9% 15-24 2,734 18.5% 1,508 55.2% 1,226 44.8% 25-34 1,833 12.4% 967 52.8% 866 47.2% 35-44 2,003 13.5% 967 48.3% 1,036 51.7% 45-54 2,143 14.5% 1,061 49.5% 1,081 50.5% 55-64 1,387 9.4% 694 50.0% 694 50.0% 65-74 1,177 7.9% 510 43.3% 667 56.7% 75+ 1,142 7.7% 404 35.4% 738 64.6% TOTALS 14,812 100.0% 7,335 49.5% 7,477 50.5% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0.14 1,980 14.20/o 1,012 51.1% 969 48.9% 15-24 2,134 15.3% 1,182 55.4% 956 44.8% 25-34 1,676 12.0% 869 51.9% 794 47.3% 35-44 1,973 14.2% 1,045 53.0% 926 48.1% 45-54 1,849 13.3% 899 48.6% 948 51.8% 55-64 1,881 13.5% 924 49.1% 957 33.2% 65-74 1,154 8.3% 534 46.3% 625 74.8% 75+ 1,291 9.3% 431 33.4% 863 66.8% TOTALS 13,938 100.0% 6,895 49.5% 7,038 50.5% *1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. 11B REPORT B HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 OLDER CITIZENS AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 536 23.1% 260 48.6% 276 51.4% 70-74 641 27.6% 250 39.0% 391 61.0% 75-79 500 21.6% 211 42.3% 289 57.7% 80-84 367 15.8% 114 31.1% 253 68.9% 85+ 275 11.9% 79 28.6% 197 71.4% TOTALS 2,319 100.0% 914 39.4% 1,405 60.6% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 657 26.9% 342 52.0% 317 48.2% 70-74 497 20.3% 192 38.7% 308 62.1% 75-79 415 .17.0% 171 41.3% 243 58.6% 80-84 457 18.7% 125 27.3% 334 73.1% 85+ 418 17.1% 134 32.1% 285 68.2% TOTALS 2,444 100.0% 965 39.5% 1,488 60.9% POPULATION CHANGE 1900 - 2010 YEAR POP. CHANGE % 1900 1,687 NA NA 1910 2,074 387 22.9% 1920 2,212 138 6.7% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 1940 3,602 712 24.6% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 1960 101569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 14,812 (296) -2.0% 2010* 13,938 (874) -5.9% 1960-10 13,938 3,369 31.9% *1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION RATE END OF REPORT B POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGElC 'REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 REPORT C IS USED TO DETERMINE THE 1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION RATES. 5-YEAR SURVIVAL RATES BIRTH DEATH YEAR BIRTHS RATE# DEATHS RATE# AGE OF MALE FEMALE 1970 166 13.8% 83 6.9% COHORT RATES* RATES* 1971 177 14.7% 80 6.6% BIRTHS 0.9853 0.9879 1972 144 12.0% 86 7.1% 0-4 0.9975 0.9979 1973 136 11.3% 79 6.6% 5-9 0.9988 0.9991 1974 151 12.5% 88 7.3% 10-14 0.9964 0.9988 1975 150 11.2% 90 6.7% 15-19 0.9925 0.9978 1976 163 12.2% 100 7.5% 20-24 0.9912 0.9971 1977 152 11 . 4*/o 77 5.8% 25-29 0.9915 0.9965 1978 173 13.0% 86 6.4% 30-34 0.9902 0.9953 1979 144 10.8% 90 6.7% 35-39 0.9859 0.9924 1970-79 1,556 NA 859 NA 40-44 0.9776 0.9874 45-49 0.9633 0.9802 1970 - 1980 NATURAL CHANGE 50-54 0.9424 0.9699 CHANGE % CHNG 55-59 0.9099 0.953 1970-79 697 5.8% 60-64 0.8623 0.9275 65-69 0.7975 0.889 1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION 70-74 0.7134 0.8304 NUMBER RATE 75-79 0.6109 0.7386 1970-80 1,909 15.9% 80-84 0.4896 0.6061 85+ 0.319 0.3916 1970 FERTILITY RATE@ COHORT MALE FEMALE 0-4 0.15235 0.146375 FERTILE FEMALES AGE 1970 1980** 2000*** 2010*** 1970-80 1990-00 2000-10 COHORT FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE %CHNG %CHNGx %CHNG 5-39 3,510 3,758 4,013 4,141 7.1% -0.3% 3.2% 10-44 3,294 3,607 4,216 4,365 9.5% 5.1% 3.5% *CAPP "PROJECTED BASED ON 1970 ZERO NET MIGRATION ***PROJECTED BASED ON 1990 -1980 NET MIGRATION RATE @SMALL TOWN PLANNING HANDBOOK FORMULA #PER 1,000 xl 990 ACTUAL NUMBER OF FEMALES POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE 2C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO FIND MIGRATION RATES* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1975* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1970-75 1970-75 1970-75 AGE OF 1975* 1975* 1975* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 984 502 482 .7.8% 0 10 (10) 5-9 982 491 491 7.8% (361) (199) (162) 10-14 1,342 689 652 10.6% (106) (60) (47) 15-19 1,444 746 698 11.4% 25 (1) 26 20-24 1,412 741 671 11.2% 649 392 257 25-29 759 346 413 6.0% 86 34 52 30-34 669 309 360 5.3% 21 (5) 26 35-39 643 311 332 5.1% (76) (31) (45) 40-44 711 337 374 5.6% (115) (52) (63) 45-49 812 380 431 6.4% 3 (30) 32 50-54 786 395 391 6.2% 77 40 37 55-59 678 335 343 5.4% 126 50 76 60-64 514 259 254 4.1% 116 59 56 65-69 356 172 184 2.8% 116 55 61 70-74 203 93 109 1.6% (4) (7) 2 75-79 160 71 89 1.3% 15 7 8 80-84 99 39 60 0.8% 4 4 (0) 85+ 75 25 50 0.6% 15 0 15 TOTALS 12,629 6,243 6,385 100.0% 591 268 322 PERCENT 100.0% 49.4% 50.6% NA 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% AGE OF 1975* 1975* AGE OF 1970-75 1970-75 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 984 7.8% 0-4 0 0.0% 5-19 3,768 29.8% 5-19 (442) -12.5% 20-34 2,840 22.5% 20-34 756 18.3% 35-64 4,144 32.8% 35-64 131 2.6% 65+ 893 7.1% 65+ 146 10.0% TOTALS 12,629 100.0% TOTALS 591 3.9% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE3C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO FIND MIGRATION RATES* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 1980* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1975-80 1975-80 1975-80 AGE OF 1980* 1980* 1980* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 1,049 535 514 7.9% 65 33 32 5-9 982 501 481 7.4% (0) 10 (10) 10-14 981 490 491 7.4% (361) (199) (162) 15-19 .1,338 687 652 10.1% (106) (60) (47) 20-24 1,437 741 697 10.9% 25 (1) 26 25-29 1,403 735 669 10.6% 645 389 256 30-34 754 343 411 5.7% 85 34 52 35-39 664 306 358 5.0% 21 (5) 26 40-44 636 307 330 4.8% (75) (31) (44) 45-49 699 330 369 5.3% (113) (51) (62) 50-54 789 366 423 6.0% 3 (29) 32 55-59 752 372 379 5.7% 74 38 36 60-64 632 304 327 4.8% 118 45 73 65-69 460 224 236 3.5% 104 51 52 70-74 301 138 163 2.3% 98 44 54 75-79 157 67 91 1.2% (3) (5) 2 80-84 109 44 66 0.8% 10 4 6 85+ 83 27 56 0.6% 8 2 6 TOTALS 13,227 6,515 6,712 100.0% 598 271 327 PERCENT 100.0% 49.3% 50.7% NA 100.0% 45.4% 54.6% AGE OF 1980* 1980* AGE OF 1975-80 1975-80 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 1,049 7.9% 0-4 65 6.6% 5-19 3,301 25.0% 5-19 (467) -12.4% 20-34 3,595 27.2% 20-34 755 26.6% 35-64 4,172 31.5% 35-64 28 0.7% 65+ 1,110 8.4% 65+ 217 24.3% TOTALS 13,227 100.0% TOTALS 598 4.7% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE4C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 1980 ACTUAL POPULATION & 1980 PROJECTED POPULA 1980-80* 1980-80* 1980-80* 1980-80* 1980-80* 1980-80* AGE OF DIFF. DIFF. DIFF. % DIFF. % DIFF. % DIFF COHORT TOTALS MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 (28) (7) (21) -2.6% -1.3% -4.0% 5-9 166 94 72 16.9% 18.9% 14.9% 10-14 381 196 185 38.9% 39.9% 37.8% 15-19 521 286 234 38.9% 41.7% 36.0% 20-24 (259) (109) (151) -1 8.00A -14.7% -21.6% 25-29 (289) (204) (86) -20.6% -27.7% -12.8% 30-34 255 148 107 33.8% 43.2% 25.9% 35-39 314 202 112 47.2% 65.8% 31.3% 40-44 93 35 57 14.5% 11.6% 17.3% 45-49 46 41 5 6.6% 12.6% 1.2% 50-54 64 38 26 8.1% 10.3% 6.2% 55-59 28 20 9 3.8% 5.3% 2.3% 60-64 1 24 (22) 0.2% 7.7% -6.8% 65-69 (22) (25) 3 -4.7% -11.0% 1.3% 70-74 14 (8) 22 4.7% -5.5% 13.3% 75-79 56 13 42 35.4% 20.2% 46.5% 80-84 42 4 37 38.3% 10.1% 56.9% 85+ 35 12 23 42.1% 43.6% 41.4% TOTALS 1,417 762 655 10.7% 11.7% 9.8% PERCENT 100.0% 53.8% 46.2% 100.0% 109.2% 91.1% 1980-80 1980-80 AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE AGE OF 1980-80* 1980-80* COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHANGE 0-4 (28) -1.9% 0-4 (28) -2.6% 5-19 1,068 75.4% 5-19 1,068 33.6% 20-34 (294) -20.8% 20-34 (294) -6.8% 35-64 546 38.5% 35-64 546 10.5% 65+ 125 8.8% 65+ 125 7.3% TOTALS 1,417 100.0% TOTALS 1,417 9.1% *1970 ZERO NET MIGRATION "REPRESENTS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE5C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP. DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BASED ON 1970-1980 MIGRATION RATES RATES HARBORCREE K TOWNSHIP 2000* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 780 403 377. 4.6% (18) (12) (6) 5-9 931 483 448 5.5% (189) (77) (112) 10-14 1,105 579 526 6.5% (68) (23) (45) 15-19 1,549 790 760 9.2% (155) (103) (51) 20-24 954 508 446 5.6% (286) (253) (33) 25-29 1,338 635 704 7.9% 579 283 297 30-34 1,670 1,071 599 9.9% 573 536 37 35-39 1,103 573 530 6.5% (161) (55) (106) 40-44 1,234 583 651 7.3% 183 78 105 45-49 1,312 681 631 7.8% 395 194 201 50-54 1,085 524 561 6.4% 420 213 207 55-59 884 466 418 5.2% 239 148 91 60-64 592 287 305 3.5% (170) (72) (98) 65-69 515 222 293 3.0% (133) (99) (34) 70-74 610 233 377 3.6% 86 5 81 75-79 573 219 354 3.4% 231 88 143 80-84 394 109 285 2.3% 171 44 127 85+ 292 78 214 1.7% 116 27 89 TOTALS 16,922 8,445 8,478 100.0% 1,814 923 892 PERCENT 100.0% 49.9% 50.1% NA 100.0% 50.9% 49.1% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 1990-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 780 4.6% 0-4 (18) -2.3% 5-19 3,585 21.2% 5-19 (412) -10.3% 20-34 3,962 23.4% 20-34 866 28.0% 35-64 6,211 36.7% 35-64 907 17.1% 65+ 2,384 14.1% 65+ 471 24.6% TOTALS 16,922 100.0% TOTALS 1,814 12.0% *1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE 6C REPORTC HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2005* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-05 2000-05 2000-95 AGE OF 2005* 2005* 2005* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 839 428 411 5.0% 59 24 34 5-9 778 402 376 4.6% (153) (80) (73) 10-14 930 482 448 5.6% (175) (97) (78) 15-19 1,102 577 526 6.6% (447) (213) (234) 20-24 1,542 784 758 9.2% 588 276 312 25-29 948 503 445 5.7% (390) (131) (259) 30-34 1,331 629 701 7.9% (339) (441) 102 35-39 1,657 1,060 597 9.9% 554 487 67 40-44 1,091 565 526 6.5% (143) (18) (125) 45-49 1,213 570 643 7.2% (100) (112) 12 50-54 1,275 656 618 7.6% 189 132 57 55-59 1,038 494 544 6.2% 155 29 126 60-64 822 424 398 4.9% 230 136 93 65-69 531 248 283 3.2% 16 26 (10) 70-74 437 177 260 2.6% (173) (56) (116) 75-79 479 166 313 2.9% (94) (53) (41) 80-84 395 134 261 2.4% 1 25 (24) 85+ 335 79 256 2.0% 43 0 43 TOTALS 16,742 8,378 8,364 100.0% (180) (67) (114) PERCENT 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% NA 100.0% 37.0% 63.0% AGE OF 2005* 2005* AGE OF 2000-05 2000-05 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 839 5.00/0 0-4 59 7.5% 5-19 2,810 16.8% 5-19 (775) -21.6% 20-34 3,821 22.8% 20-34 (142) -3.6% 35-64 7,095 42.4% 35-64 885 14.2% 65+ 2,177 13.0% 65+- (207) -8.7% TOTALS 16,742 100.0% TOTALS (180) -1.1% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE7C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2005-10 2005-10 2005-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 798 407 391 4.8% (40) (21) (20) 5-9 837 427 410 5.1% 59 24 34 10-14 777 402 375 4.7% (153) (80) (73) 15-19 928 480 448 5.6% (174) (96) (78) 20-24 1,097 572 524 6.6% (445) (212) (234) 25-29 1,533 777 756 9.3% 585 273 311 30-34 942 499 443 5.7% (388) (130) (258) 35-39 1,321 623 698 8.0% (336) (437) 101 40-44 1,637 1,045 592 9.9% 546 480 66 45-49 1,072 552 519 6.5% (141) (17) (124) 50-54 1,179 549 630 7.1% (96) (108) 12 55-59 1,218 618 600 7.4% 180 124 56 60-64 968 450 519 5.9% 146 26 120 65-69 735 365 370 4.4% 204 118 87 70-74 449 198 251 2.7% 12 21 (9) 75-79 342 126 216 2.1% (137) (40) (97) 80-84 333 102 231 2.0% (63) (32) (30) 85+ 349 91 259 2.1% 14 12 2 TOTALS 16,516 8,283 8,232 100.0% (227) (95) (132) PERCENT 100.0% 50.2% 49.8% NA 100.0% 41.8% 58.2% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2005-10 2005-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 798 4.8% 0-4 (40) -4.8% 5-19 2,542 15.4% 5-19 (269) -9.6% 20-34 3,572 21.6% 20-34 (249) -6.5% 35-64 7,395 44.8% 35-64 300 4.2% 65+ 2,208 13.4% 65+ 31 1.4% TOTALS 16,516 100.0% TOTALS (227) -1.4% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE8C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS BASED ON 1970-1980 MIGRATION RATES HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 777 402 375 4.2% (2) (1) 1 (1) 5-9 978 507 471 5.3% 47 25 23 10-14 1,079 562 517 5.8% (26) (16) (9) 15-19 1,289 680 608 6.9% (261) (109) (151) 20-24 899 488 411 4.8% (55) (20) (35) 25-29 1,217 561 659 6.6% (122) (73) (44) 30-34 1,261 715 558 6.8% (4W) (356) (41) 35-39 1,945 1,034 916 10.5% 842 460 386 40-44 1,875 1,166 694 10.1% 641 583 43 45-49 1,142 622 526 6.2% (170) (60) (105) 50-54 1,274 605 669 6.9% 189 81 108 55-59 1,264 651 614 6.8% 381 186 195 60-64 970 485 483 5.2% 378 197 178 65-69 700 325 374 3.8% 186 103 82 70-74 470 187 285 2.5% (140) (47) (92) 75-79 463 152 317 2.5% (110) (68) (37) 80-84 460 112 362 2.5% 66 3 78 85+ 497 130 366 2.7% 205 52 152 TOTALS 18,561 9,384 9,207 100.0% 1,639 940 729 PERCENT 100.0% 50.6% 49.6% NA 100.0% 57.3% 44.5% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 2000-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE. % CHNG 0-4 777 4.2% 0-4 (2) -0.3% 5-19 3,346 18.0% 5-19 (239) -6.7% 20-34 3,376 18.2% 20-34 (586) -14.8% 35-64 8,471 45.6% 35-64 2,260 36.4% 65+ 2,591 14.0% 65+ 207, 8.7% TOTALS 18,561 100.0% TOTALS 1,639 9.7% 1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE9C REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 1990-2010 POPULATION CHANGE (BASED ON 1980 - 1990 NET MIGRATION) 2010-90 2010-90 2010-90 2010-90 2010-90 2010-90 AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 0 (8) 8 0.0% -1.6% 1.7% 5-9 (283) (133) (150) -28.9% -27.2% -30.5% 10-14 (396) (200) (196) -29.5'/o -29.1% -30.09/6 15-19 (776) (413) (363) -53.7% -55.3% -52.1% 20-24 (143) (189) 45 -10.2% -25.5% 6.8% 25-29 774 425 349 102.0% 122.8% 84.5% 30-34 (155) (36) (119) -23.1% -11.6% -33.0% 35-39 57 (5) 62 8.9% -1.5% 18.6% 40-44 586 540 46 82.4% 160.2% 12.3% 45-49 155 65 89 19.0% 17.2% 20.7% 50-54 514 238 276 65.4% 60.2% 70.6% 55-59 573 300 273 84.6% 89.8% 79.5% 60-64 206 91 116 40.1% 35.0% 45.4% 65-69 87 44 43 24.4% 25.7% 23.2% 70-74 (75) (30) (45) -37.0% -32.6% -40.7% 75-79 0 (5) 5 0.3% -6.5% 5.7% 80-84 110 37 73 110.8% 93.9% 121.9% 85+ 173 40 134 230.6% 158.1% 267.0% TOTALS 1,408 761 646 11.1% 12.2% 10.1% PERCENT 100.0% 54.1% 45.9% 100.0% 109.4% 90.8% AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 0 0.0% 0-4 0 0.0% 5-19 (1,455) -103.4% 5-19 (1,455) -36.4% 20-34 476 33.8% 20-34 476 15.4% 35-64 2,091 148.6% 35-64 2,091 39.4% 65+ 295 21.0% 65+ 295 15.4% TOTALS 1,408 100.0% TOTALS 1,408 9.3% *1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION RATE "REPRESENTS A PERCENT OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. loc REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 780 4.6% 0-4 777 4.2% 5-19 3,585 21.2% 5-19 3,346 18.0% 20-34 3,962 23.4% 20-34 3,376 18.2% 35-64 6,211 36.7% 35-64 8,471 45.6% 65+ 2,384 14.1% 65+ 2,591 14.0% TOTALS 16,922 100.0% TOTALS 18,561 100.0% AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,816 16.6% 1,464 52.0% 1,351 48.0% 15-24 2,503 14.8% 1,298 51.8% 1,206 48.2% 25-34 3,008 17.8% 1,705 56.7% 1,303 43.3% 35-44 2,337 13.8% 1', 156 49.5% 1,181 50.5% 45-54 2,398 14.2% 1,206 50.3% 1,192 49.7% 55-64 1,476 8.7% 753 51.0% 723 49.0% 65-74 1,125 6.6% 455 40.5% 669 59.5% 75+ 1,259 7.4% 407 32.3% 852 67.7% TOTALS 16,922 100.0% 8,445 49.9% 8,478 50.1% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,835 15.3% 1,471 51.9% 1,364 48.1% 15-24 2,187 11.8% 1,169 53.4% 1,020 46.6% 25-34 2,477 13.3% 1,276 51.5% 1,217 49.1% 35-44 3,820 20.6% 2,200 57.6% 1,610 31.3% 45-54 2,416 13.00/, 1,227 50.8% 1,195 45.4% 55-64 2,235 12.0% 1,136 50.8% 1,097 29.5% 65-74 1,171 6.3% 512 43.7% 659 89.2% 75+ 1,420 7.7% 394 27.8% 1,045 73.6% TOTALS 18,561 100.0% 9,384 50.6% 9,207 49.6% *1970 - 1980 NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P. lic REPORT C HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 OLDER CITIZENS AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 515 21.6% 222 43.1% 293 56.9% 70-74 610 25.6% 233 38.3% 377 61.7% 75-79 573 24.00/6 219 38.3% 354 61.7% 80-84 394 16.5% 109 27.8% 285 72.2% 85+ 292 12.2% 78 26.8% 214 73.2% TOTALS 2,384 100.0% 863 36.2% 1,521 63.8% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 700 27.0% 325 46.4% 374 53.4% 70-74 470 18.2% 187 39.7% 285 60.6% 75-79 463 17.9% 152 32.8% 317 68.3% 80-84 460 17.8% 112 24.4% 362 78.8% 85+ 497 19.2% 130 26.2% 366 73.7% TOTALS 2,591 100.0% 906 35.0% 1,704 65.8% POPULATION CHANGE 1900 - 2010 YEAR POP. CHANGE % 1900 1,687 NA NA 1910 2,074 387 22.9% 1920 2,212 138 6.7% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 1940 3,602 712 24.'6% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 16,922 1,814. 12.0% 2010* 18,561 1,639 9.7% 1960-10 18,561 7,992 75.6% *1970-1980 NETMIGRATION END OF REPORT C POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE11) REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 REPORT D AVG.THE 1970-80 & THE 1980-90 MIG.RTS.TO ARRIVE AT FUTURE POP. 1970 -1990 NET MIGRATION RATE 1970 - 1990 NET MIGRATION 1970-90 1970-90 1970-90 1970-80 1,909 15.9% AGE OF % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG 1980-90 192 1.3% COHORT TOTAL MALE** FEMALE" 0-4 -13.8% -12.3% -15.2% 5-9 13.4% 13.3% 13.6% 1990 FERTILITY RATE*** 10-14 27.1% 27.2% 27.0% 15-19 43.9% 46.3% 41.5% COHORT MALE FEMALE 20-24 '-l 3.2% -1.3% -25.3% 0-4 0.101441 0.097463 25-29 -39.7% -45.5% -33.3% 30-34 14.0% 14.6% 14.8% 35-39 31.1% 43.2% 20.6% 40-44 10.3% 8.5% 12.0% 45-49 1.5% 6.0% -2.7% 50-54 1.8% 3.4% 0.3% 55-59 -1.5% -0.1% -2.9% 60-64 0.1% 5.7% -4.8% 65-69 -2.5% -3.3% -1.7% 70-74 7.3% -2.2% 15.5% 75-79 26.7% 17.9% 33.0% 80-84 34.7% 12.4% 48.1% 85+ 38.0% 43.9% 35.7% TOTALS 4.1% 4.9% 3.3% AVG. 10.0% 9.9% 9.8% FERTILE FEMALES AGE 1970 1980 1990 2000* 2010* 1970-90 1990-10 COHORT FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE FEMALE % CHNG % CHNG 5-39 3,510 4,232 4,026 3,715 2,845 14.7% -29.3% 10-44 3,294 4,066 4,012 3,894 3,000 21.8% -25.2% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATES "ONLY THE MALE/FEMALE COLUMNS THROUGH 85+ ARE USED FOR PROJ. ***SMALL TOWN PLANNING HANDBOOK FORMULA POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE21) REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2000* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 1990-00 1990-00 1990-00 AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 691 358 333 4.4% (107) (57) (50) 5-9 903 460 443 5.7% (217) (100) (117) 10-14 1,011 526 485 6.4% (162) (76) (86) 15-19 1,606 815 791 10.1% (98) (78) (20) 20-24 1,013 588 425 6.4% (227) (173) (54) 25-29 1,017 479 538 6.4% 258 127 131 30-34 1,404 857 546 8.8% 307 322 (16) 35-39 982 495 487 6.2% (282) (133) (149) 40-44 1,188 566 622 7.5% 137 61 76 45-49 1,248 642 606 7.9% 331 155 176 50-54 1,022 492 530 6.4% 357 181 176 55-59 839 442 397 5.3% 194 124 70 60-64 593 282 311 3.7% (169) (77) (92) 65-69 525 241 284 3.3% (123) (80) (43) 70-74 625 241 384 3.9% 101 13 88 75-79 537 215 321 3.4% 195 84 110 80-84 381 112 269 2.4% 158 47 ill 85+ 284 78 205 1.8% 108 27 80 TOTALS 15,867 7,890 7,978 100.0% 759 368 392 PERCENT 100.0% 49.7% 50.3% NA 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 1990-00 1990-00 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 691 4.4% 0-4 (107) -13.5% 5-19 3,520 22.2% 5-19 (477) -11.9% 20-34 3,434 21.6% 20-34 338 10.9% 35-64 5,872 37.0% 35-64 568 10.7% 65+ 2,351 14.8% 65+ 438 22.9% TOTALS 15,867 100.0% TOTALS 759 5.0% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE3D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2005* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-05 2000-05 2000-05 AGE OF 2005* 2005* 2005* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 774 395 379 4.9% 84 37 47 5-9 689 357 332 4.4% (214) (103) (111) 10-14 902 460 443 5.7% (109) (66) (42) 15-19 1,008 524 484 6.4% (597) (291) (306) 20-24 1,598 809 789 10.1% .585 221 363 25-29 1,007 583 424 6.4% (10) 104 (114) 30-34 1,011 475 536 6.4% (393) (383) (10) 35-39 1,393 849 544 8.8% 411 354 57 40-44 971 488 483 6.2% (217) (79) (139) 45-49 1,168 554 614 7.4% (80) (88) 8 50-54 1,212 618 594 7.7% 190 126 64 55-59 978 464 514 6.2% 139 22 117 60-64 780 402 378 5.0% 187 120 67 65-69 532 243 289 3.4% 6 2 5 70-74 445 192 253 2.8% (180) (49) (131) 75-79 491 172 319 3.1% (46) (43) (2) 80-84 369 132 237 2.3% (12) 20 (32) 85+ 430 107 323 2.7% 146 28 118 TOTALS 15,758 7,822 7,936 100.0% (110) (68) (42) PERCENT 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% NA 100.0% 61.7% 38.3% AGE OF 2005* 2005* AGE OF 2000-05 2000-05 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 774 4.9% 0-4 84 2.4% 5-19 2,600 16. 5% 5-19 (920) -26.8% 20-34 3,616 22.9% 20-34 182 3.1% 35-64 6,502 41.3% 35-64 630 26.8% 65+ 2,266 14.4% 65+ (85) -0.5% TOTALS 15,758 100.0% TOTALS (110) -0.7% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE4D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTION* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2005-10 2005-10 2005-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 739 377 362 4.8% (36) (18) (17) 5-9 773' 394 379 5.0% 84 37 47 10-14 688 357 332 4.5% (214) (103) (111) 15-19 900 458 442 5.8% (108) (66) (42) 20-24 1,003 520 483 6.5% (594) (289) (306) 25-29 1,588 802 787 10.3% 582 219 362 30-34 1,000 578 423 6.5% (11) 103 (114) 35-39 1,004 470 534 6.5% (389) (379) (10) 40-44 1,377 837 539 8.90/0 406 349 56 45-49 954 477 477 6.2% (214) (77) (137) 50-54 1,135 533 602 7.4% (77) (85) 7 55-59 1,159 582 577 7.5% 181 119 62 60-64 912 422 490 5.9% 132 20 112 65-69 697 346 351 4.5% 166 103 62 70-74 451 194 257 2.9% 6 1 4 75-79 347 137 210 2.2% (144) (35) (109) 80-84 341 105 235 2.20/. (28) (26) (2) 85+ 369 98 270 2.4% (61) (8) (53) TOTALS 15,437 7,688 7,749 100.0% (321) (134) (187) PERCENT 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% NA 100.0% 41.7% 58.3% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2005-10 2005-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 739 4.8% 0-4 (36) -1.4% 5-19 2,361 15.3% 5-19 (239) -6.6% 20-34 3,592 23.3% 20-34 (24) -0.4% 35-64 6,540 42.4% 35-64 39 1.7% 65+ 2,204 14.3% 65+ (62) -0.4% TOTALS 15,437 100.0% TOTALS (321) -2.0% *ZERO NET MIGRATION POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE5D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 POPULATION PROJECTIONS* HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP 2010* POPULATION BY AGE/SEX 2000-10 2000-10 2000-10 AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* % OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 637 330 307 3.9% (53) (28) (26) 5-9 877 447 430 5.4% (27) (14) (13) 10-14 875 454 421 5.4% (136) (72) (64) 15-19 1,295 670 625 8.0% (310) (145) (165) 20-24 875 514 361 5.4% (138) (74) (64) 25-29 962 437 524 5.9% (55) (42) (14) 30-34 1,147 662 485 7.1% (256) (195) (61) 35-39 1,317 673 644 8.1% 335 178 157 40-44 1,512 908 604 9.3% 324 341 (17) 45-49 970 505 464 6.0% (278) (136) (142) 50-54 1,156 552 604 7.1% 133 60 74 55-59 1,142 582 560 7.0% 303 140 163 60-64 912 446 466 5.6% 319 164 155 65-69 680 335 345 4.2% 155 94 61 70-74 486 190 297 3.0% (139) (52) (87) 75-79 441 162 279 2.7% (96) (54) (42) 80-84 467 118 349 2.9% 86 7 80 85+ 508 142 367 3.1% 225 63 162 TOTALS 16,258 8,125 8,133 100.0% 391 236 155 PERCENT 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% NA 100.0% 60.3% 39.7% AGE OF 2010* 2010* AGE OF 2000-10 2000-10 COHORT TOTAL % COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 637 3.9% 0-4 (53) -7.7% 5-19 3,046 18.7% 5-19 (473) -13.40% 20-34 2,984 18.4% 20-34 (450) -13.1% 35-64 7,008 43.1% 35-64 1,136 19.4% 65+ 2,582 15.9% 65+ 231 9.8% TOTALS 16,258 100.0% TOTALS 391 2.5% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE61) REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 1990 - 2010 POPULATION CHANGE 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE % CHNG % CHNG % CHNG COHORT TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE 0-4 (161) (85) (76) -20.1% -20.4% -19.9% 5-9 (243) (113) (130) -21.7% -20.3% -23.2% 10-14 (298) (148) (150) -25.4% -24.6% -26.3% 15-19 (409) (223) (186) -24.0% -25.00/6 -22.9% 20-24 (365) (247) (118) -29.5% -32.5% -24.6% 25-29 203 85 117 26.7% 24.2% 28.9% 30-34 50 127 (77) 4.6% 23.8% -13.7% 35-39 53 45 8 4.2% 7.2% 1.2% 40-44 461 403 58 43.9% 79.8% 10.7% 45-49 53 18 34 5.8% 3.8% 8.0% 50-54 491 241 250 73.8% 77.4% 70.6% 55-59 497 264 233 77.0% 82.9% 71.2% 60-64 150 87 63 19.7% 24.2% 15.7% 65-69 32 14 18 4.9% 4.3% 5.5% 70-74 (38) (38) 1 -7.2% -16.9% 0.2% 75-79 99 31 68 28.9% 23.6% 32.3% 80-84 244 53 191 109.4% 82.0% 120.7% 85+ 332 91 242 188.9% 177.7% 193.4% TOTALS 1,150 603 547 7.6% 8.0% 7.2% PERCENT 100.0% 52.5% 47.5% 100.0% 105.4% 94.7% AGE OF 1990-10 1990-10 AGE OF 1990-10- 1990-10 COHORT TOTAL %** COHORT CHANGE % CHNG 0-4 (161) -14.0% 0-4 (161) -20.1% 5-19 (951) -82.7% 5-19 (951) -23.8% 20-34 (112) -9.8% 20-34 (112) -3.6% 35-64 1,704 148.2% 35-64 1,704 32.1% 65+ 669 58.2% 65+ 669 35.0% TOTALS 1,150 100.00/0 TOTALS 1,150 7.6% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE "REPRESENTS A PERCENT OF THE TOTAL CHANGE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE7D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 AGE CHARACTERISTICS AGE OF 2000* 2000* AGE OF 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % COHORT TOTAL % 0-4 774 4.9% 0-4 637 3.9% 5-19 2,600 16.5% 5-19 3,046 18.7% 20-34 3,616 22.9% 20-34 2,984 18.4% 35-64 6,502 41.3% 35-64 7,008 43.1% 65+ 2,266 14.4% 65+ 2,582 15.9% TOTALS 15,758 100.00/0 TOTALS 16,258 100.0% AGE BY SEX AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,366 15.0% 1,212 51.2% 1,154 48.8% 15-24 2,606 16.5% 1,333 51.1% 1,273 48.9% 25-34 2,018 12.8% 1,058 52.4% 960 47.6% 35-44 2,364 15.0% 1,337 56.6% 1,027 43.4% 45-54 2,380 15.1% 1,172 49.2% 1,208 50.8% 55-64 1,758 11.2% 865 49.2% 893 50.8% 65-74 977 6.2% 435 44.6% 541 55.4% 75+ 1,289 8.2% 410 31.8% 879 68.2% TOTALS 15,758 100.0% 7,822 49.6% 7,936 50.4% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 0-14 2,388 14.7% 1,231 51.5% 1,158 48.5% 15-24 2,170 13.3-0/6 1,183 54.5% 987 45.5% 25-34 2,109 13.0% 1,100 52.1% 1,009 47.9% 35-44 2,829 17.4% 1,581 55.9% 1,248 44.1% 45-54 2,125 13.1% 1,057 49.7% 1,068 50.3% 55-64 2,054 12.6% 1,027 50.0% 1,026 50.0% 65-74 1,166 7.2% 524 45.0% 642 55.0% 75+ 1,416 8.7% 422 29.8% 994 70.2% TOTALS 16,258 100.0% 8,125 50.0% 8,133 50.0% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE81) REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 OLDER CITIZENS AGE OF 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* 2000* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 532 23.5% 243 45.7% 289 54.3% 70-74 445 19.6% 192 43.2% 253 56.8% 75-79 491 21.7% 172 35.1% 319 64.9% 80-84 369 16.3% 132 35.7% 237 64.3% 85+ 430 19.010/0 107 24.8% 323 75.2% TOTALS 2,266 100.0% 846 37.3% 1,420 62.7% AGE OF 2010* 2010* 2010* 2010* 201D* 2010* COHORT TOTAL % MALE % FEMALE % 65-69 680 26.30/6 335 49.3% 345 50.7% 70-74 486 18.8% 190 39.0% 297 61.0% 75-79 441 17.1% 162 36.7% 279 63.3% 80-84 467 18.1% 118 25.3% 349 74.7% 85+ 508 19.7% 142 27.9% 367 72.1% TOTALS 2,582 100.0% 946 36.6% 1,636 63.4% *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE POPROI HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS PAGE9D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 1900 - 2010 POPULATION CHANGE CUMILITIVE YEAR POP. NUMBER % CHNG % CHNG 1900 1,687 NA NA NA 1910 2,074 387 22.9% 22.9% 1920 2,212 138 6.7% 31.1% 1930 2,890 678 30.7% 71.3% 1940 3,602 712 24.6% 113.5% 1950 7,475 3,873 107.5% 343.1% 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 526.5% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 613.6% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 768.0% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 795.6% 2000* 15,867 759 5.0% 840.6% 2010* 16,258 391 2.5% 863.7% 1960-10 16,258 5,689 153.8% NA *1970 - 1990 AVERAGE NET MIGRATION RATE HARBCREK A/G/A POPULATION PROJECTIONS P.10D REPORT D HARBORCREEK TOWNSHIP DATE: 7/26/94 COMPARABLE POPULATION PROJECTIONS A/G/A ZERO NET MIGRATION YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 15,114 6 0.0% 2010* 14,831 (284) -1.9% A/G/A HIGHEST YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 16,922 1,814 12.0% 2010* 18,561 1,639 9.7% A/G/A 1970-1990 AVG. NET MIGRATION YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 15,867 759 5.0% 2010* 16,258 391 2.5% A/G/A LOWEST YEAR POP. CHANGE % CHNG 1960 10,569 3,094 41.4% 1970 12,038 1,469 13.9% 1980 14,644 2,606 21.6% 1990 15,108 464 3.2% 2000* 14,812 (296) -2.0% 2010* 13,938 (874) -5.9% END OF REPORT D POPROI 3 6668 14110420 0