[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]
15752 5 VOLUME II THE ONSHORE IMPACTS OF ALASKAN OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT IN THE STATE OF WASHINGTON report to STATE OF WASHINGTON DEPARTMENT OF ECOLOGY June 1977 C-79642 TD 195 .P4 059 1977 v.2 Arthur D. Little, Inc. This report was financed by a grant from the Washington State Department of Ecology with funds from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and appropriated for Section 305 of the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972. U.S. DE@ARTNAENI COMMERCE NOAA C 0 A S 1 E N'418I. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY ACTIVITY ZONES: 2234 SOU G,@; AVENUEENVIRONMENTAL SETTING AND IMPACT @C '29405-2413, CHARI ;@ , 41 This study addresses the impact of petroleum activity at three loca- tions within Puget Sound. The first is Port Angeles, located on the Strait of Juan de Fuca in Clallam County. Although there is presently no petroleum industry at Port Angeles, it has been identified as a possible site for a Puget Sound oil superport, and the Northern Tier Pipeline Company proposes to construct a marine terminal for crude oil transshipment at Port Angeles. The second zone addressed is March Point, near the City of Anacortes in Skagit County. March Point is presently the site of the Shell and Texaco oil refineries. Marine terminals there currently receive the majority of the refinery feed stock. The scenarios addressed in this study do not con- sider transshipment at March Point; the activity is limited to a variety of ways in which the local refinery supply can be-obtained. The third zone is Cherry Point, located on the Strait of Georgia near the City of Ferndale in Whatcom County. Cherry Point is an area designated as an industrial zone. It is the site of the Atlantic Richfield and Mobil Oil refineries as well as the Intalco Aluminum Smelter. The scenarios con- sidered in this study are concerned with the method of regional supply for local refining needs and also with the possibility of using Cherry Point as a marine terminal for transshipment of crude oil to the midwestern United States. Chapter VII begins with a description of the environmental setting at each of the three activity zones. The five basic environmental factors described in Chapter V are each addressed according to the methodology set forth. The second part of Chapter VII presents the environmental impact assessment of the various scenarios as they may affect the three activity zones. The project components which serve to generate the environmental impact are described in detail in Chapter VI; that project description is not repeated here. ZI 7y A. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING 1. Port Angeles - Clallam County Situated on the Strait of Juan de Fuca on the north coast of the Olympic Peninsula, Port Angeles is roughly equidistant between Cape Flattery and the Pacific Ocean on the west, and the urban areas of Seattle, Tacoma, and Everett on the eastern shore on Puget Sound. Port Angeles has a well protected harbor formed by Ediz Hook, a narrow sand spit ex- tending into the Strait enclosing the harbor on two sides and providing protection from the majority of Pacific storms. The anchorage within the hook is over three miles long, with deep water exceeding 60 feet through- out. The protected harbor has served the Olympic Peninsula as a focus for its commerce relating to forest products, fisheries, and recently tourism. -TI: With a population of 16,000, Port Angeles is the major city in Clallam County. (Ses,,.Figure VII-1.) lz:) AkN'm'7% F USE30haZ A* Arthur D Little, Inc z@_ VII-1 P, left P sia op Dunireness spit r-,�,triPed Peak Angeles Point E d Hook ungeness vy @ce !Z Green 0 Point ew., 7' P's Carl eq u utp L LoG os. -7 @ Marine Terminal proposed by Northern Tier Pipeline Co. 0 2 4 6 Mi km A 0 3 6 9 0 Alternative Marine Terminal NORTH FIGURE VII-1 LOCATION: PORT ANGELES a. Land Use (1) Regional. In the Clallam County/Port Angeles activity zone, the area most likely to be affected by induced population growth from oil ter- minal facilities and pipeline originating at Port Angeles is the corridor of flat land along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. This comprises the greater urban area of the City of Port Angeles, inclusive of the low-density spread of urbanization each of the city, mostly in the coastal belt between Port Angeles and Sequim. The City of Sequim and the Dungeness Valley area may also experience population growth as a result of oil projects. As can be seen from Table VII-1, total acreages of land use categories were available only for the county as a whole and for the incorporated cities. Clallam County is extremely rural with the vast majority (89%) of the land in forest but a significant proportion (6%--64,000 acres) in some agricultural use. Present urban centers are restricted to the two incorporated cities previously mentioned and to the Town of Forks located to the west of the Olympic National Park. Land use in the corridor which will receive population impact is primarily low-density residential, with agriculture still practiced in the area of Sequim and on the Dungeness Cape. Residential dwelling unit densities in the affected zones, outside the incorporated areas, are on the order of two to four families per acre, except in the zone of intensive agriculture where the density drops to one to three families per acre. Much of the land is still undeveloped; the overall density is low enough that the area retains a rural, wooded character. The City of Port Angeles is a definite urban center in the largely rural county. Consequently, no lands within the city boundary are ex- pressly designated as open space or agriculture, but as of 1974, 41% of the total land area in the incorporated city was not developed. Of this, a high proportion is available for future residential growth. Likewise in the City of Sequim, approximately 1000 acres in extent, 48% of the total land area is still considered vacant. 0 Land Values Residential land values in Clallam County/Port Angeles are currently on the order of $24,000 per acre and the average parcel size is one-quarter acre ($6,000). (See Table VII-2.) However, much of the land changing ownership outside the distinctly urban area of the city is in larger parcels. Land value figures more current than 1974 were available anecdotally from the Clallam County Assessor's Office and are shown in Table VII-2. The inflationary trend has continued so that a five-acre parcel on the average sells for $5,000 per acre if it can be used for residence. The inflation rate has been about 30% per year over that period. 0 Land Use Trends/Conflicts According to information from the Clallam County Planning Department, the area undergoing the most rapid urban growth at present and expected to continue as the focus of development for some time in the future is the Sequim/Dungeness Valley, roughly 15-20 miles east of Port Angeles. VII-3 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIT-1 LAND USE - ACREAGE - CLALLAM COUNTY Activity Zone Residential- -Industrial A,9E:1-c-u 1-tPr a I Timber Commercial Other Clallam County 13,660 650 64,092a 999,8911b 157 N (1971) (1 %,) (.06%) (6%) (89%) (.01%) Port Angeles 1,200 300 2,200 undeveloped 100 (1974) (22%) (6%) (41.5%) (2.0%) a Includes "small private forest" b includes Federal, State, and private timberlands N Data not available Source: Clallam County Preliminary Comprehensive Plan (1976); Port Angeles Planning Director. TABLE V11-2 LAND VALUES - CLALLMI COUNTY Res i den t i al Agricul ture Timber Parcel Acreage in Activity Zone Valuc/Acre Size Trend Va I tic/Acre M@W 84. 34 Valuc/Acre Clallam County $ 5,000/ac Sac $ 2,000/nc 30,300 (4 7.3%) $1-100/ac depending on soil 2,000/ac 20ac (cash crop) ac t@jv and access. (Timlber 1,S00/ac crop -valuc dete-iniriM (grazing) separate from raw lan@ value.) Port Angeles 24,000/ac !A acre Since 1973 an- Not Tmportant NOIN E nual inflation I-ate of S-IS% depending upon location. Sour ce: Clallam County Assessor; Port Angeles Planning Director. V 11-4 Arthur D Littk Inc. (See Table VII-3.) This area has become attractive as a retirement com- munity because of the combination of mild climate with relatively low precipitation and the availability of waterfront parcels. The actual growth which has occurred has been outstripped by speculation in land in this area. It was reported that only about one-third of the subdivided lots which have been sold in the last two to three years have been occupied. Within the City of Port Angeles, the areas identified by the City Planning Director as the most prime development sites are in the south and west end of the city where the present "vacant" land use is now pasture and second-growth timber. In anticipation of development, the value of these lots has been rising at a moderate rate over the last three years or so. Land speculation in the Sequim/Dungeness Valley is having an adverse effect upon agricultural land use according to the 1976 Clallam County Comprehensive Plan (unadopted). The acceleration in land speculation and subdivision is affecting the best agricultural land in the county. Less than half of all of the prime agricultural lands remaining in the county have been placed in open space taxation status under RCW 84.34. This reflects a general perception on the part of farmers that the sale of land for urbanization brings a far higher price per acre than the sale for continued agricultural use. The total acreage in farms has declined by about 11% between 1969 and 1974. Since there is no current zoning effective in Clallam. County, the land values are determined only by a perception of their salability for urban residential development rather than agricultural use. Yet the Clallam. County Comprehensive Plan explicitly states that the perception of salability and speculation by farmers in conjunction with land developers is far in excess of the actual future need for land to support residential growth. Trends in land use are also indicated by the rate of population growth and the likelihood that a recently observed pattern will continue into the future. Both Clallam County and the City of Port Angeles experienced very slow growth during the economic recession felt generally in Washington in the early 1970s. As shown from the population growth tables (Tables VII-4 through VII-6), the county began to recover and experience accelerated growth beginning in 1973-74 and in the last year growth rate in the county was 7.5%, the most rapid of any of the petroleum industry activity zones in this study. Population growth in the City of Port Angeles has only within the last year shown a marked turn-around from the depressed rate of the early 1970s. The official state government projections for the county (See Table VII-6) indicate a 1980 population of 36,550 and 38,300 in 1990, yielding an annual average growth rate of 0.3%. Local sources were less confident to speculate about the continuation of very recent growth trends. The current preliminary Clallam County land use plan takes account of a number of problems which beset all areas in the process of undergoing rapid urban development. These problems include the need for urban services (see also the section on infrastructure), the failure of conventional VII-5 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-3 GROWTH TRENDS AND PLANNING PERSPECTIVE - CLALLAM COUNTY Activity Zone Growth Trends/Planning Perspective Clallam County Sequim-Dungeness valley is most active growth area. Suburban-type development/retirement community. Port Angeles South and west end of City undergoing speculative-type development. Multiple-family residential will be zoned along arterials. Strip commercial will give way to nodal commercial centers. Source: Clallam County Planning Department; Port Angeles Planning Director. TABLE VII-4 C POPULATION GROWTH - CLALLAM COUNTY 1970/76 (6 year) Activity Zone. 1970171 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 Ann. Av. 1976 Population Clallam County +0.4% +0.6% +0.3% +1.7% +3.4% +7.5% 2.3% 39,800 Port Angeles +0.5% +0.9% +1.0% -1.0% -2.2% C L6% +0.14% 16,506 *Population Growth Rate 1970/76 Source: Washington State Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management/Population Studies Division. VII-6 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-5 components of population change 1970-76 - CLALLAM COUNTY April 1, 1970 to April 1, 1976 POPULATION COMPONENTS OF CHANGE Change Natural Net Immi- 1970 1976 Number % Births Deaths Increase gration A B C (=B-A) D E F (=D-E) G (=C-F) 34,770 39,800 +5030 14.5 3,625 2,399 1,226 3,804 Source: Taken from Table 10, State of Washington Population Trends, 1976. Population Studies Division; Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management. TABLE VII-6 OFFICIAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS - CLALLAM COUNTY P R 0 J E C T E D P 0 P U L A T 1 0 1975 ACTIVITY ZONE 1975 Actual 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Clallam Co. 35,700 37$000 36,550 37,400 38,300 39,100 40,000 SOURCE: State of Washington, Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management Official Estimates August, 1972 VII-7 Arthur D Little, Inc suburbs to provide a suitable residential environment, the inefficient utilization of land (urban sprawl), and the need for an expanded road and highway system. With an-eye toward minimization of identified problems and in anticipation of continued growth and urban residential development, the plan attempts to concentrate development in the vicinity of existing centers of population. This mode of development stresses infilling of vacant parcels between existing subdivisions rather than the outward ex- tension of the urban boundary. This form of growth should serve the multiple goals of minimizing urban sprawl, reducing the encroachment on agricultural land, and allowing for the most cost-effective extension of municipal services. (2) Specific Project Site and Alternatives. There are three sub- alternatives for marine terminals and onshore facilities for a Port Angeles transshipment project. The prime Northern Tier proposal is for a fixed berth inside Ediz Hook. The engineering consultants to Northern Tier, however, examined two alternatives which would utilize single point moorings (SPMs) roughly one mile off coast at Freshwater Bay nine miles west of the Ediz Hook proposal, and at Green Point five miles east of Ediz Hook. Ediz Hook Subalternative :and use along the sand spit forming Ediz Hook and its connection to the mainland is some industrial development interspersed with fallow land. The Crown Zellerbach paper facility occupies the triangle of land where the isthmus forming the Hook meets the mainland. A narrow two-lane road occupies the central portion of the spit itself with the breakwater re- inforced by riprap immediately to the outside. On the harbor side, immediately-at the waterffont in the central portion of the Hook, is the log booming area of ITT with the Puget Sound pilots' station just to the east. The wider zone of land at the east end of the Hook is occupied by the U.S. Coast Guard Station, including several buildings and a small air strip. 0 Freshwater Bay Subalternative The onshore backup area (surge/storage for an alternative offshore mooring site for Freshwater Bay) is an area of agricultural land above the flood plain Gf the Elwha River. The lands to the west and those fronting on Freshwater Bay are part of the Elwha Indian Reservation. Of some thousand acres of land between the Elwha River and the Port Angles city boundary.which could potentially be affected by oil project develop- ment, roughly one-third is agricultural with some low-density residential development interspersed. The remaining two-thirds is relatively dense, second-growth woodland. 0 Green Point Subalternative A marine terminal at Green Point may use one of two possible onshore sites for surge/storage tankage. One of these is a largely fallow grass- land near the mouth of Morse Creek. The site has some residences nearby VII-8 Arthur D Little Inc. and is surrounded by a steep wooded bluff and by the railroad. Closer to Green Point itself, there are several hundred acres of wooded land with occasional clearings that could be used for a tank farm site. There is scattered residential development throughout this area. b. Infrastructure (1) Schools. Two school districts in Clallam County may be affected by population growth associated with petroleum industry activities at Port Angeles (see Figure VII-2). They are the Port Angeles and Sequim districts. The Port Angeles school district has experienced an overall decline in en- rollment of 3.6% over the last five years, while the Sequim. district has gained 17.7% in enrollment. Both districts are presently operating well over capacity in comparison to the current state standards for space in public schools. Overcrowding generally means more pupils per classroom than is desirable, as stipulated by state standards, and may also mean conversion to classroom use of space not intended for regular instruction (cafeteria during non-meal hours, etc.). Both districts are using a small number of portable classroom units, but they provide only 1% (Port Angeles), and 6% (Sequim) of the additional space for instruction needed in 1976-77. Port Angeles school district is actively engaged in school construction, and has expended $2.3 million since January 1971 for school capital de- velopment. The Sequim. district has expended no money for this purpose in the same time period. (See Tables VII-7 through VII-10.) The decline in Port Angeles district enrollment over the last five years is attributable both to a very slow rate of population growth in the City of Port Angeles and to the general decline in birth rate , a phenomenon which is quite apparent in Washington State and has resulted in declining school enrollments statewide. Growth in the Sequim district enrollment over the same interval reflects a high rate of in-migration, accommodated by a high rate of residential construction. Data available over the past three years indicate that the total market value of real and personal property taxes levied on assessed valuation, calculated according to the "indicated ratio" formula which varies from place to place and from year to year. Increases in market value in a particular district are due both to new construction and to inflation. In 1976, total market value of the Port Angeles district was 80% greater than that of the Sequim district. Sources of revenues for the two districts are roughly the same proportion of local taxes, county administrative, and state and federal funds (see Table VII-11). In both districts, about half of the total revenue is provided by state funds with one-fourth to one-third from local taxes. Port Angeles has the higher proportion of local funds. Fiscal information is summarized in Tables VII-11 to VII-15. At present both districts have a large excess bonding capacity which could be translated into new capital development through voter approval ($12.7 million in Port Angeles and $7.9 million in Sequim). (See Table VII-14.) Port Angeles passed the most recent bond issue in February of 1976, bringing the present bonded indebtedness to $3.4 million. Sequim has not passed a bond issue since 1955 and has only $1.03 million left to repay of the $6.8 million incurred at that time. VII-9 Arthur D Little, Inc. S T R A I T 0 F J U A N D E F U C A EDIZ HOOK GREEN POI PORT ANGELES PORT ANGELES SEQUIM 121 323 0 2 4 6 mi km > 0 3 6 9 SOURCES: NORTH M State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction, "Boundaries of the 303 School Districts in Exis- tence on October 15, 1976". NT k'IGURE VII-2 SCHOOL DISTRICTS: PORT ANGELES d k ob TABLE VII-7 SCHOOL DISTRICT HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - CLALLAM COUNTY Percent Total Percent Annual Historical Enrollment (October 1) (K-12) Change Change ACTIVITY ZONE/ 197T----Tg-72 1973 1974 1975. 1976 1971-76 (Exponential) SCHOOL DISTRICT CLALLAM COUNTY Port Angeles 121 5007 4868 4813 4713 4960 4826 -3.6 -0.7 Sequim 323 1465 1558 1637 1762 1747 1724 +17.7% +3.3 Source:State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-8 CURRE14T ENROLLMENT AND AVERAGE DAILY ATTENDANCE - CLALLAM COUNTY Average 1976 Daily Current Enrollment Total Attendance ACTIVITY ZONE/ -(October, 1976) jLj2L 1975-76 SCHOOL DISTRICT CLALLAf.1 COUNTY Port Angeles 121 2398 T166 1262 4826 4478 (K-6) (7-9) *(10-12) Sequim 323 562 520 642 1724 1616 (K-4) (5-8) (9-12) Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-11 Arthur D Little, Inc! TABLE VII-9 SCHOOL DISTRICT EXISTING CAPACITY - CLALLAM COUNTY Sa ti s factory Existing School District Capacity Remaining ACTIVITY ZONE/ Capacity Absolute Number of Temporary Facilities SCHOOL DISIRICT 1976 Pupils Percentage (1975-76 Inventory) CLALLAH COUNTY/ PORT ANGELES 2 portable class roor Port Angeles 121 3310 -1516 -31.4 2302 sf Sequim 323 1282 -442 -25.6 3 Portable class roor 2702 sf Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction. TABLE VII-10 SCHOOL DISTRICT CERTIFICATED STAFF RATIOS - CLALLAM COUNTY (per 1000 FTE* Pupils) Teachers Other** Jr. Jr. ACTIVITY ZONE/ High High Middle Elem. High High Middle Elem. SCHOOL DISTRICT School School School School School School School School Clallam County/ PORT ANGELES M Port Angeles 121 41.63 41.03 42.69 7.84 6.93 - 5.34 Sequim 323 45.25 - 41.97 43.19 8.85 - 4.55 3.91 *FTE = Full Time Equivi"l-ent **Other = School Administrators, Supervisors, and Support Services SOURCE: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-12 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-11 SCHOOL DISTRICT REVENUE AND COST CLALLAM COUNTY SOURCES OF REVENUE - 1974-75 REVENUE VS COST (% of total) 1974-75 Market Net County. Value Revenue Expendi- Cost ACTIVITY ZONE/ Local Admin. State Federal per per ture per per SCHOOL DISTRICT Taxes Funds Funds Funds Other*, Pupil Pupil Pupil" @E21*' Clallam County/ PORT ANGELES Port Angeles 121 30.64 4.6 52.43 10 .33 2.0 49,881 1120 1146 1055 Sequim :323 24.64 4.25 53.44 9.90 7.77 63,899 1009 1065 916 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction *Other=Local non-tax revenue, n -revenue receipts, and payment from districts. **See text for explanatibn of difference between expenditure and net Cost. TABLE VII-12 TAXABLE PROPERTY - MARKET VALUE - CLALLAM COUNTY Taxable Property Total Market Value Thousands) ACTIVITY ZONE/ L% A% SC1iOOL DISTRICT 1974 1975 1974-75 1976 1975-76 CLALLAM COUNTY Port Angeles 121 265,207.2 288,098.5 +8.6 322,564.1 +12.0 Sequim 323 128,101.5 137,978.4 +77 179,269.4 +29.6 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-13 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-13 ASSESSED VALUE - CLALLAM COUNTY Indicated Ratios* Taxable Property ACTIVITY ZONE/ (Assessed Value/Market Value Assessed Valuation Thousands) SCHOOL DISTRICT 1973 1974 197@ 1974 1979-7 1976 CLALLAM COUNTY/ 40.4 81.6 94.3 PORT ANGELES Port Angeles 121 107,143.7 235,088.4 304,177.9 Sequim 323- 51,753.0 112,592.4 169,051.0 *Weigh'ed ratio including components for real and personal property Source: State of Washington, Department of Revenue. TABLE VII-14 SCHOOL DISTRICT BONDING STATUS - CLALLAM COUNTY Bonded Debt ACTIVITY ZONE/ 7/1/76 Amount Last Date SCHOOL DISTRICT ($ Millions Bond Issue Passed CLALLAM COUNTY PORT ANGELES Port Angeles 121 3.425 2.700 2/l/76 Sequim 323 1.029 6.8 1955 SOURCE: State of Washingtons superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-15 SCHOOL DISTRICT TAX RATES - CLALLAM COUNTY ACTIVITY ZONE/ TAX RATES-1976 Collections SCHOOL DISTRICT ($/lOOO of assessed Valuation) State Bond Special Levy Retirement Levy(Local) CLALLAM COUNTY PORT ANGELES Port Angeles 121 3.83 0.51 5.23 Sequim 323 3.83 0.78 - SOURCE: Tax Assessor's Office/Clallam, Skagit, 14hatcom Counties VII-14 Arthur D Little, Inc In Clallam County, assessed value/pupil is not well correlated with the solvency of the district. In 1974-75, Port Angeles had a $26 disparity between revenue and expenditure per pupil and Sequim had a $56 deficit. (See Table VII-11.) Apparently a high proportion of the lands assessed within the district are exempt from special school taxes. The Sequim district, probably owing to its high proportion of older residents, has consistently been reluctant to incur fiscal obligation either for school operation and maintenance or for new school construction; a bond issue has not passed in 21 years. The 1975 special levy (about $4.6/1000 in calendar 1976 dollars of assessed valuation) would have pro- vided the district with $557,000 in operation and maintenance funds, but it failed both special levy elections since it was not approved by the required 60% of the electorate. Consequently, in 1976 all of the Sequim district operation and maintenance revenues would have had to come from the state school tax (with an exception of the small proportion from federal sources, etc.) and from any funds which could have come from a district reserve fund based in part on local taxes from previous years. By contrast, Port Angeles passed their excess levy for 1976 in the first election which yielded the district $5.23/$1,000 of assessed valuation, and accounted for 58% of the property taxes collected for public school operation and maintenance expenditures. (2) Water Supply. Water supply for Port Angeles is provided by the city as a municipal service. The sole source of water supply for the city is Morse Creek, a mountain stream three miles to the east. This creek is not large enough to ensure adequate supply to the city in future years; this source is just barely meeting the city's needs at present. Moreover, Port Angeles is involved in a law suit with the Department of Social and Health Services (DSHS) because the waters from this creek violate tur- bidity and coliform standards. In addition to water quantity and quality problems, the transmission line from the creek to the town is operating at its peak capacity -- 13 million gallons per day (MGD), usually reached in the summer months. Rates of water usage in Port Angeles are about 900 gallons per residence per day. Much water wastage occurs because Port Angeles is not on a metered system but uses a flat rate of $4.50 a month per residen- tial user. Thus, water consumption rates in Port Angeles are nearly three times the typical consumption rates for a metered system. If the system were metered, average use could be cut to 7 MGD. Peak use would also diminish and the 13 MCD capacity transmission line would then provide ample capacity for serving the town at its present size. Currently, the city has no immediate plans to convert to a metered system. The Port Angeles water system serves the entire population (16,000) within the city limits. The system also serves a public utilities district (PUD) comprising about 2000 people. Water is sold wholesale by Port Angeles to the district, which then retails the water to its customers. In the rest Of the unincorporated vicinity of Port Angeles, residences use individual wells for their water supply; farther away in the county there are. small community systems. VII-15 Arthur D Little, Inc. 0 As a result of the law suite now pending the judge's decision in the state court, Port Angeles will most likely be required to pursue one of two options: better treatment of their existing source, or an alter- 0 nate source of drinking water. The first option does not appear viable since Morse Creek is not large enough to supply enough water to justify a large investment in a water treatment plant. Alternative sources of drinking water being investigated by Port Angeles are ground water, the desalination of saltwater, and an infiltration system under the Elwha River. Since ground water reserves in the area are not sufficient for a 0 large municipal well and desalination is extremely expensive, the two most likely alternatives being considered by Port Angeles are the infiltration 'plant on Morse Creek concurrent with a metered water system which would cut water consumption. According to Mark Spahr of the DSHS, the economics of the latter two choices are about equivalent. However, he favors the Elwha River option because the transmission line could be sized for 0 30-50 years of capacity, whereas the filtration plant on Morse Creek system would only last about 20 years, even with metered water use without expansion of the 13 MGD delivery pipeline. Port Angeles' new water source would be financed by a 40% construction grant from DSHS and the remainder by revenue bonds raised by water users 40 in Port Angeles. Water rates would have to be raised to $8 or $9 per month. DSHS has calculated that either the Elwha infiltration or the Morse Creek filtration plant would have a capital cost of $3-3.5 million. Operation and maintenance plus bond redemption would cost the city $0.5 million per year for the life of the bond. Either plant would have 7 MGD capacity and will probably take two to three years to put in operation. The source of drinking water for the Town of Sequim is the Dungeness River, two miles west of the city. The Town of Sequim now faces similar water supply problems to Port Angeles. The transmission line with a present capacity of 1.8 MGD is undersized. Although the city's water system is now metered, until a year ago water use was not metered and was even higher than that of Port Angeles because the Town of Sequim receives little rainfall and much water was used for sprinkling and irrigation. Although water consumption rates are declining, peak con- sumption is presently 1.6 MGD, and the system will probably reach capacity in one or two years' time. Sequim is a rapidly growing community due to an influx of retired people. Furthermore, the water supply receives no treatment and has experienced turbidity problems. An engineering study investigated expansion of the town's drinking water supply. The two options identified are infiltration wells (called Rannee wells) on the Dungeness River, or deep municipal wells. The latter appears possible since there are already many residences with individual wells in and around the Town of Sequim. (3) Wastewater 0 City of Port Angeles The City of Port Angeles operates a primary sewage treatment plant which discharges into Port Angeles harbor. (See Tables VII-16 and VII-17 for statistics on this treatment plant.) The city has an NPDES permit, Arthur D Little, Inc VII-16 TABLE VII-16 WASTEWATER DISPOSAL --SERVICE POPULATION: PORT ANGELES Existing Wastewater Generation Rates Municipal Unsewered Flow Sewered Flow Design Bas"'n Plant Population (mgd)b Population (gpcd)d Population North Olympic City of 0 16,100 143.0 24,400 Coastal Port Angeles Port Angeles NA ND ND ND ND Coast Guard Station a 1.975 estimate, within incorporated limits b Average daily flow for 1975 in million gallons per day c 1975 estimate d Gallons per capita per day NA = notavailable; NO = no data Source: North Olympic Coastal Basin Water Quality Management Plan TABLE VII-17 'WASTEWATER DISPOSAL - DISCHARGE LOCATION: PORT ANGELES NPDES Permit Existing Status Municipal Level of Discharge Have In District Upgrading Basin Plant Treatment Location Permit Compliance or Expansion Plans North City of Primary Port Yes No Plant to be upgraded by Olympic Port Angeles Angeles July 1, 1977. Morse Coastal Harbor Creek area to be tied in to Port Angeles as urbanization warrants Port ND Port Yes ND NO Angeles Angeles Coast Guard Harbor Station NO =: no data Source: North Olympic Coastal Basin Water Quality Management Plan -10 VII-17 Arthur D Little Inc but is not in compliance. The city is now conducting a problem survey, identifying infiltration and inflow sources as the preliminary steps in preparation of a facilities plan. Port Angeles' sewage treatment plant will be rehabilitated, upgraded to secondary treatment, and storm water overflow problems corrected if and when grants are made available. Plans will involve an increase in capacity based on population projections for the town. Although a secondary plant is required by July 1, 1977, the upgraded plant at Port Angeles will probably not be completed until 1980 at the earliest. According to Stan Springer, of the Southwest Regional Office of the Department of Ecology, Port Angeles is probably not high on the Department of Ecology's priority list for receiving state grants. The Port Angeles plant is relatively new, well maintained, run efficiently, and has the advantage of relatively deep and good quality receiving water at its outfall. At present the treatment plant at Port Angeles is serving approximately 16,000 people; its design population is approximately 24,000. 0 Port Angeles Coast Guard Station On Ediz Hook, the Coast Guard Station uses a septic tank drain field for sanitary sewage for about 100 people. Although the sewage is not discharged directly into Port Angeles harbor, it reaches the surrounding waters fairly quickly through the small drain field in the highly permeable sand substrate of Ediz Hook. 0 City of Sequim The incorporated City of Sequim operates a .5 MGD secondary sewage treatment plant which discharges into the mouth of Sequim Bay. Because it is now serving almost its design population and the service area population is projected to double between now and the year 2000, plans are being made to extend the sewage treatment and collection system. A development north of Sequim, called Sunland, also requires sewer service; its ultimate planned population is 3000. The City of Sequim has completed a draft facilities plan in which these capacity problems as well as storm water overflow problems are corrected. Two proposals exist to include the community of Sunland in the city's sewer system: one large regional plant of 1.5 MGD capacity, or two separate systems, a 1.0 MCD plant at Sequim with ground disposal at Sunland. Thus, the Town of Sequim sewage treat- ment capacity could be either doubled or tripled. The expanded system will most likely be completed around 1980 since the facilities plan draft must be approved and grant funds appropriated. (4) Solid Waste. Three industrial and two general purpose solid waste disposal sites are located within 10 miles of Port Angeles. Pen- insula Plywood operates a wood chip dump, ITT Rayonier uses a modified land fill for demolition waste at 13th and M streets, and M&R Timber Company uses a modified land fill for sawmill wastes at 16th and I streets. None of these are sanitary land fills. A general purpose open dump, Blue Mountain dump, is located 10 miles east of Port Angeles and is used by both self-haul6rs and a refuse contractor in Sequim and the eastern portion of Clallam County. Port Angeles operates a non-fee, self-haul sanitary land fill about four miles from the town. Serving the city and surrounding unincorporated land, the landfill uses small successive VII-18 Arthur D Little, Inc sections of a 60-acre piece of land. No information was given in the Clallam County Solid Waste Management Plan or the Department of Ecology's 303(e) reports as to the expected life times or capacities of any of these disposal sites. Visual eyesore and smoldering problems were cited for the l6th and I streets and Blue Mountain dump, respectively. Although a dark leachate is running into a creek that passes through Peninsula Plywood's wood chip pile, no other problems were mentioned. (5) Transportation. The two major interstate or state highways serving the Port Angeles area are U.S. Route 101 which passes through both Sequim and Port Angeles, and State Route 112 which follows the northern shoreline of western Clallam. County, meeting Route 101 west of Port Angeles. Otherwise, northern Clallam County is served by local roads, such as old Olympic Highway near Sequim, east Mt. Pleasant Road near Morse Creek, and 18th Street near Port Angeles. Old Puget Sound Highway 9G approaches Port Angeles from the south. All of these local roads are "light duty" rural roads. Both U.S. 101 and State Route 112 have segments that are nearing or exceeding capacity. As would be expected, these congested areas are lo- cated closest to the urbanized areas of Port Angeles and Sequim, while the rural portions of both roads (west of Port Angeles) are far below capacity. U.S. 101. in particular exhibits large variations in traffic loading -- the "bottleneck" behavior of rural roads. The section of 101 between Port Angeles and Sequim also contains some two-lane and some four-lane stretches. Overall, the peak loading (in excess of capacity) is found at each end of the segment, nearest the cities of Port Angeles and Sequim. (See Table VII-18 for volume/capacity values of both U.S. 101 and State Route 112.) TABLE VII-18 HIGHWAY VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIOS - CLALLAM COUNTY Volume/Capacity Ratio Standard Road No. Control Section Maximum Mean Deviation Clallam County U.S. 101 0503 2.85 .56 .52 0504 1.58 .62 .33 0505 1.40 .69 .26 112 0534 .89 .27 .25 VII-19 Arthur D Little, Inc C. Terrestrial Biology (1) "Ediz Hook The upland vegetation of Ediz Hook is sparse and extremely disturbed. A possible surge/storage area adjacent to the Crown Zellerbach industrial site consists of about 100 acres of vacant, cleared land with a 20-acre lagoon. The vegetation of this parcel is entirely the weedy grassland species characteristic of sites subject to recent clearing or extreme disturbance. The marine shoreline aspect of Ediz Hook biology is discussed in the section on marine biology. (2) "Freshwater Bay - Angeles Point Subalternative. The area between the lower Elwha River and the Port Angeles city boundary comprises approxi- mately 1050 acres; the central third is agricultural land under intensive cultivation, and the remainder is forest. The lands east of the river are in Indian ownership, forming part of the Elwha Reservation. A possible tank farm site is on agricultural land just inland of Angeles Point. The forest land surrounding is a relatively late successional complex of mixed deciduous and coniferous species (refer to the appendix Characteristic Species of Puget Sound Upland Habitat). The age and relative richness of the forest in the vicinity of Port Angeles is'variable from place to place, according to precipitation, soil type, and the recency of disturbance. The area is primarily used for timber production; large parts of the area are nearly pure dense stands of Douglas fir with sporadic clear-cutting scars. It appears that much of the area is subject to a clear-cutting and reforestation program that has been in existence for some time. The more recently disturbed areas appear to contain a higher proportion of shrub and deciduous species. The Port Angeles plain is intercut by ravines containing several major rivers. The ravines support a lush riparian zone along the bluffs and occasionally on the river bottom depending upon the canyon width. Ak Im (3) Green Point Subalternative. There are two subalternatives for an onshore tank farm serving an offshore mooring at Green Point. The flood plain of Morse Creek is approximately 120 acres in extent. It lies on either side of the creek, surrounded by a steep (45 degree or 100% slope) bluff separating it from the railroad right-of-way and minor residential le development. The vegetation of the flood plain is grassland with a small zone of riparian growth just at the river mouth before the creek enters the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The bluff consists of somewhat dense shrubby and riparian vegetation. A tank farm site at Green Point itself is an area of woodland, approximately 175 acres in size, just east of Green Point and Siebert Creek. The area has about a 3% slope with northeast exposure and is bounded on the south by the railroad right-of-way. Siebert Creek to the east has carved a shallow, relatively broad stream channel with sides sloping at about 25%. To the east of the channel is a residential area between the railroad right-of-way and Gherke Road. There is a very small marsh at the mouth of Siebert Creek. The woodland on the tank farm site is a relatively well developed, late second-growth forest of mixed coniferous and deciduous tree species. Dominant trees include Douglas V.11-20 Arthur D Little, Inc fir, western red cedar, big leaf maple, and vine maple. The forest is relatively mature. It appears to have been undisturbed for close to 100 years, and it does not appear to have been greatly affected by the residential development occurring to the east of Siebert Creek. d. Air Quality Air quality at Port Angeles is generally good due to strong ven- tilating winds along the Strait. Although sulfur oxide and particulate emisSiOULS from forest product and paper industries have caused significant violations, current abatement programs seem to be reducing the potential for violation of air quality standards for those pollutants. (See Tables VII-19 and VII-20.) Detailed assessment of air quality impacts of industrial emissions in Port Angeles is.hampered by lack of monitoring data. The location of Port Angeles on the Strait of Juan de Fuca indicates that the area has significant capacity to dissipate pollutants. Other urban areas are more than 60 miles downwind, and the air flow channeled through the Strait of Olympic Range does not impact any enclosed plains or valleys. Thus, the typical effect of industrial emissions is moderate. It is likely that only with conditions of strong inversion, with light or variable winds, do the heavy concentration of sulfur oxides emitted by industry create excessive concentrations within the City of Port Angeles. In this regard, the close proximity of the residential portion of the city to major industry and the only deepwater anchorage at the port is a drawback. The probability of strong inversions with oxidant producing conditions is low at Port Angeles. No oxidant is available to indicate the magnitude of any current oxidant experience. e. Water Quality/Marine Biology Port Angeles is located in the north Olympic Coastal Basin (see Table VII-21). The dominant beneficial uses in these waters are log storage and 'navigation. There are fewer aquatic resources in and around Port Angeles harbor. Pacific oyster culture, clam beds, and crab are present (DNR Marine Atlas, 1974). However, an Army Corps of Engineers EIS for an erosion control project on Ediz Hook states that shellfish and waterfowl are neither abundant nor important in the Ediz Hook area itself. The Marine Atlas further indicates a major waterfowl area and sports and commercial bottom-fishing as well as sport and commercial salmon fisheries. No endangered species are known to occupy Ediz Hook. Four industrial dischargers and one municipal discharger use Port Angeles waters. ITT Rayonier discharges 35.7 MGD of waste liquid and backwash waste into port waters. Peninsula Plywood discharges only 0.1 MGD of glue waste, while Crown Zellerbach discharges 9.7 MGD of cooling water and drainage and blowdown waste containing zinc and fiber into port waters. Atlantic Richfield discharges oil separator effluent when there has been an oil spill into Tumwater Creek which is a tributary to Port Angeles. The City of Port Angeles also discharges 2.3 MGD of primary effluent into port waters. 11-21 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-19 ANNUAL EMISSION FROM ITT RAYONIER AND CROWN ZELLERBACH - PORT ANGELES Emissions (tons per year) Data Source PartiCLIlate so NO HC Co 2 x EPA Region X 2200 5200 1600 200 4000 Washington State 2196 4077 Dept. of Ecology Report 1974 Teknekron* 1407 3891 1425 ITT Rayonier 641 24901 695 Crown Zellerbach 766 1401 730 Combination of boiler data from John Rosene (01y:@)pic APCA) arid process data-from Gary Rothwell (Washington State Departmient of Ecology). Compiled by Erwin Kauper, Teknekron Asscciate. Source: Teknekron, 1976. VII-22 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-20 AIR MONITORING DATA - PORT ANGELES PARTICULATES Occurrences 24-hr Avg. Exceeding 24-hour Annual Geometric maximum 260 Ug/M3 150 ug/m3 Mean* (ug/m3) (Federal) (State) (Ug/M3) 1974 Police Station 187 0 2 70 Hospital 108 0 0 45 1975 Police Station 212 0 2 66 Hospital 208 0 2 43 Pool Site (5 mo.) 105 0 0 42 1976 Hospital 110 0 0 42 Pool Site 112 0 0 40 City Light 217 0 5 72 *Federal Standard is 75 ug/m3 State Standard is 60 ug/m3 SULFUR DIOXIDE Annual maximum hours Annual maximum Annual hourly average > 40 pphm 24 hour average AKLrage 3rd at Chesnut 98 5 21 2 (3 Mo.) 1976 Source: State of Washington, Department of Ecology. VII-23 Arthur D Little Inc. iABLE VII-21 WATER QUALITY - PORT ANGELES NORTH OLYMPIC COASTAL BASIN - WATER RESOURCE INVENTORY AREA 18 AND 19 Existing Water Quality (not ranked for severity of problems) Segment 07 - Port Angeles Harbor: Class A, effluent limited. A "special coliform condition" is in effect, otherwise good water quality. Segment 08 - Port Angeles Harbor Tributaries: Class A, water quality limited. No water quality data available. Water quality limitation due to non-point source runoff. ARCO and ITT also discharge into this segment (Ennis, Tumwater Creeks). Segment 15 - Strait of Juan de Fuca: Class AA, effluent limited. No water quality data available however Class AA Standards are considered applicable. Issues Urban and forestry practice runoff make tributaries' water quality limited. In the Harbor, coli- form violations appear to be main water quality issue. Beneficial Uses Log storage Navigation Recreation Salmonid rearing Aquatic Resources Pacific Oyster Culture Subtidal clam beds (4+ types) Salmon fishery (5+ species) Crabs Bottom-fishing, -sport and commercial Major waterfowl area (Shellfish and waterfowl minor in abundance and importance on Ediz Hook) No known endangered species Public Recreation/Protected Areas 'low State 5idelands Ediz Hook City Park of Port Angeles Ediz Hook underwater recreation area Discharges Within 10 Miles of Marine Terminal Discharger Quantity (mgd) Effluent ITT Rayonier 35.7 Waste liquor (sulfides), backwash waste Peninsula Plywood 0.1 Glue waste (settled and screened) Crown Zellerbach 9.7 Zinc, fiber; cooling water ARCO ? Oil separator effluent City of Port Angeles 2.3 Primary effluent Sources: Department of Ecology, State of Washington, 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan - North Olympic Coastal Basin, October 1975; Department of Natural Resources, State of Washington Marine Atlas,1974; Department of Ecology, State of Washington, Fauna Survey, 1,05. VII-24 Arthur D Little- Inc The three segments comprising the receiving waters for the Port Angeles site are not ranked by the Department of Ecology for severity of water quality problems. The Port Angeles harbor segment has Class A waters and is effluent limited; it has good water quality although a it special coliform condition" is in effect. The Strait of Juan de Fuca just outside the port has Class AA waters, although no water quality data is available. The tributaries to Port Angeles, Ennis and Tumwater Creeks are classified as Class A waters but are water quality limited due to the nonpoint source runoff of forestry and urban development. No water quality data are available for the waters. Sensitive areas to be protected from pollution in the Port Angeles area include the Ediz Hook underwater recreation area and city parks, as well as state-owned tidelands. However, Port Angeles harbor is zoned commercial by the Department of Natural Resources. The main water quality issues in Port Angeles area waters appear to be the violation of coliform standards in the harbor and the polluted runoff from the harbor's tribu- taries. The coastal environment of the Strait of Juan de Fuca is less sheltered than that of the inner Sound, and the degree and diversity of biological activity are less. Numerous small coves and river mouths dot both sides of the Strait, and on a small scale these provide an important habitat for anadromous fish (salmon and steelhead), herring, and shellfish. These include the Grey Wolf, Lyre and Dungeness Rivers, and Discovery and Sequim Bays. These habitats are limited in extent compared to those of the inner Sound, and their regional biological significance is pro- Ilk portionately less. The exposed beaches and intertidal zones are not noted for unusual or abundant marine life. The Dungeness National Wildlife Refuge, 12 miles east of Port Angeles, serves as a migratory bird refuge and as harbor seal habitat. 2. March Point/Anacortes - Skagit County March Point is a small peninsula extending into Padilla Bay from the isthmus that connects Fidalgo Island with the mainland portion of Skagit County. The peninsula is presently the site of two major re- fineries -- Shell and Texaco -- as well as several smaller industries providing support for the petroleum refineries. The City of Anacortes (population of 8000) lies two miles to the west across Fidalgo Bay. The anchorage off March Point is sheltered Padilla Bay, approached via the Guemes Channel and Rosario Strait. The anchorage at Anacortes and March Point is moderately deep with protection from prevailing storm winds and waves. The economy depends on petroleum as well as on traditional Puget Sound resources -- timber and fisheries. The broad flood plain of the Skagit River to the east separates March Point from the urban centers of Mount Vernon and Burlington, 12 miles distant along Interstate 5. The nearest large city is Bellingham, 35 miles to the northeast. (See Figure VII-3.) VII-25 Arthur D Little, Inc. ellingham'' mw So d Isi'an M onstitutit. Ci A &Z Govtjrnors Villa a e L. ence Point P0 Doe 8A Carter Poin- a "ONNE'j. a i Sinclair Island Sarnish Island'- Island Blanchar Sami i Bo' Island- e r z Isla catur C v A rtes ay Vie Burlin4ton 4 Si 0 vo Moun Ua- hnee C,o---n w--'a-y Shell Refinery 0 2 4 6 Mi Texaco Refinery 0 3 6 9 km Marine Terminal NORTH FIGURE VII-3 LOCATION: MARCH POINT :S @d M onstituti' k @ @6f3let' L S Vitt" VII-26 Arthur D Little, Inc. a. Land Use (1) Regional. A portion of Skagit County lies within the sphere of influence of petroleum development projects or their associated population growth. The level of activity expected from the scenarios considered in this study is small, however. The area of possible impact includes the Island's district, parts of the Skagit flood plain, the Mount Vernon area, and possibly the Burlington/Bayview area (definition of these areas is given in. the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan). Within the area poten- tially affected, Table VII-22 shows that the vast majority of acreage is either in agriculture (45%) or in timberland (46%). Only a small pro- portion (5%) of the total land area is currently residential development, about 6400 acres. The great majority of industrially developed land in Skagit County is the March Point refinery complex, which accounts for 84% of the present industrial land use in the affected portion of Skagit County. The other industrial development is oriented toward either agriculture (fertilizer manufacturing plant) or the forest products industry. In- dustrialization accounts for only 1.4% of all potentially affected lands in western Skagit County, and only 4.4% of all acreage in the Island's district. In comparison to other parts of the county, agriculture is a highly conspicuous land use in the affected zone because of the abundance of fertile flat land lying in the flood plain of the Skagit River. Water is so plentiful in the soil that most crops are dry farmed and there is no need :for irrigation water, even in summer. In terms of gross dollar value, agriculture is the most important economic activity in Skagit County. Within the incorporated boundaries of the City of Anacortes, the major land use is.residential; 67% is developed as residential dwelling units. There is no true agriculture practiced within the city boundaries. The closest zoning category is "rural suburban" or 11vacant" which is wood lots or timberland lying in small parcels and accounts for 25% of the total city acreage. March Point lies outside of the city limits. 0 Land Values Within Skagit County, land available for residential use is concentrated around the urban centers -- Anacortes, Mount Vernon, Burlington -- and in smaller communities such as La Conner and Sedro-Woolley. In the urban centers, residential land is generally sold in parcels of one-quarter acre at a cost of $6,000 to $10,000 for the parcel ($24,000 to $40,000 per acre), depending on factors such as location with respect to commercial centers and view quality (Table VII-23). Within the last five years, residential land values have increased at the rate of about 11% per year due to the combined effects of inflation and strict zoning which tightly defines the residential development area. Agricultural land now commands a price of between $1,800 and $2,500 per acre. The lower figure is for boot bottom land in the best upland location where the potential uses are the least restricted. The price of agricultural land has tended to stabilize at the present value because of the extensive application of the open space taxation law in Skagit County. Ninety percent of all agricultural land (90,000 acres) are protected from 11true and fair value" taxation and thereby from speculation detrimental to their productivity. VII-27 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-22 LAND USE - ACREAGE SKAGIT COUNTY Activity Zone Residential Industrial Agricultural Timber Commercial Other Skagit County 9,488 954 106,760 426,088 815 6,483 (1973) (1.7%) (0.2%) (19.3%) (77.1%) (0.1%) (1.2%) Community and Public 2,007 (o.4%) Portion of Skagit Co. 6,380 1,780 56,650 60,200 810 2,490 Potentially Affected by (4.9%) (1.4%) (45.4%) (45.8%) (0.6%) (1.9%) Project Scenarios Community and Public 710 (0.5%) Anacortes 3,200 300 0 0 100 1,200ac@vacant) (1976) (67%) (6%) (2%) (25%) Source: Skagit County Comprehensive Plans, Islands District, Skagit River Floodplain and Related Uplands; Anacortes Comprehensive Plan, 1977. TABLE VII-23 LAND VALUES,- SKAGIT COUNTY Residential Agriculture Timber Parcel Acreage in Activity Zone Valuc/Acre Size Trend 'Value/Acre RCIV 84.34 Valuc/Acre Skagit County 24,000/ac k acre Rise in resi- 1,800 90,000 (90%) $60-132/ac depending on 40,000/ac dential land (bottom land) ac soil type and access values (11%/ 2,500 year) due to (best upland) inflation and scarcity owing to strict zoning. Anacortes 27,200/ac 1/5 acre 6.8% annual No real agriculture in City Zoning category "rural suburb3n" is (central city) inflation rate timberland in small parcels. 163,3SO/ac in land values. (prime waterfront location) Source: Skagit County Assessor; Skagit County Planning Department; Anacortes City Manager. VII-28 Arthur D Little Inc Within the City of Anacortes, residential development is at a slightly higher density; parcel sizes are one-fifth acre with the cost per acre ranging between $27,200 in the central city to an extreme high of $163,300 for a prime waterfront location. Figures given by the city manager of Anacortes indicates that the last several years have seen a 7% annual inflation rate in residential land cost, similar to the rate of general inflation in the United States, but below the inflation of land prices in most urban areas. The town of Mount Vernon, county seat of Skagit County, has been one of the fastest growing areas in the county and, hence, serves as a model for residential land costs within this region. Mount Vernon is also the preferred location for urban growth in Skagit County. This municipality sustained an average annual growth rate four times that of Anacortes in the interval from 1970 to 1976 and has a current population of 10,300 compared to 8000 in Anacortes (see Table VII-24). 0 Land Use Trends - Planning Perspective The State Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management (OPP&FM) predicts only very moderate growth for Skagit County between now and the year 2000 (0.1% per year). The economic mainstays of the county are agriculture, forestry, and tourism, and these are expected to continue with the assistance of planning and zoning policies which encourage and perpetuate these activities. Growth in the last six years countywide was estimated by the OPP&FM to be occurring at an average on only 0.5% per year (see Tables VII-25 through VII-27). Specific policies in the 1975 Comprehsnive Plan for the parts of Skagit County which are the most critical to the determination of future land use as relevant to induced development from oil projects are as follows: 1. The existing agricultural pasture and forestry land, especially those in flood plains are to be protected from other forms of development. The prime agricultural land should be protected by encroachment by more intensive uses. 2. Agriculture areas should receive protection from the 20-year flood. 3. The open space taxation laws of 1970 and 1973 should be retained as viable methods of land use control. 4. The urban areas should grow first by infilling develop- ment on vacant land at existing densities of development prior to the extension of the urban boundary. 5. Planned unit development should be utilized where possible to cluster neighborhoods and create open space within residential areas. VII-29 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-24 POPULATION GROWTH - SKAGIT COUNTY 1970/76 (6 year) Activity Zone 1970/71 1971/7 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 Ann. Av. 1976 Population Skagit County +0.6% +0.4% +0.2% 0 +0.8% +1.3% +0.54% 54,100 Anacortes +0.8% +0.1% +0.1% +1.7% +0.9% +0.7% 8,010 *Population Growth Rate 1970/76 Source: Washington State Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management/Population Studies Division. TABLE VII-25 GROWTH TRENDS AND PLANNING PERSPECTIVE - SKAGIT COUNTY Activity Zone Growth Trends/Planning PerSDective Skagit County Most growth is in incorporated areas. "Not spots" are east of Mt. Vernon and at Shelter Bay on the Swinomish Indian reservation. Anacortes Growth.trend is toward retirement community. Future growth in workforce-population sector depends on oil and other industry future. Proposed pulpmill - 100 employees. Proposed fish processing_plant - 200/300 employees, . Source: Skagit County Planning DepIartment; City of Anacortes, City Manager. VII-30 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-26 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CUANGE'1970-76 - SKAGIT COUNTY April 1, 1970 to April 1, 1976 POPULATION COMPONENTS OF CHANGE Change Natural Net Immi- 1970 1976 Number % Births Deaths Increase gration A B C (=B-A) D E F (=D-E) G (=C-F) 52,381 54,100 +1719 3.3 4,704 3,431 1,273 446 Source: Taken from Table 10, State of Washington Population Trends, 1976. Population Studies Division; Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management. TABLE VII-27 OFFICIAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS - SKAGIT COUNTY P R 0 J E C T E D P 0 P U L A T 1 0 1975 ACTIViTY ZONE 1975 Actual 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Skagit Co. 52,700 53,400 52,950 53,200 53,500 53,700, 54,000 S13URCE: State of Washington, office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management Official Estimates August, 1972 VII-31 Arthur D Little, Inc 6. High density residential development in appropriately zoned areas should only occur when all urban services are available. 7. A significant degree of low-density urban development should only occur when such uses do not interfere with resource production or extraction activities on the land. 8. "Unilateral and independent actions of the Swinomish tribal community are inconsistent with'this comprehensive plan for the island's area and Skagit County. Industrial, commercial, and residential development on the Seinomish Reservation should be coordinated with the plans and policies of Skagit County government...." 9. The zoning shall be revised to conform with the comprehensive plans. 10. The tourist industry and recreational activities should be enhanced, partly to add to the economic base of the island's area. 11. Plans for new population utilities (sewer services, water, solid waste) should be coordinated on a regional basis to attain a more efficient, equitable, and economic system of service for all the communities involved (Skagit County la@d use policies specific to the coastal zone environ- ment will be discussed under impact for each industrial site). A new comprehensive land use plan has been completed in draft for the City of Anacortes. The plan is geared toward development in the existing residential areas at a very slow to moderate rate between now and the year 2000 and some supporting industrial development in the waterfront zone, including the Port of Anacortes. The last six years has seen a growth rate in Anacortes roughly comparable to the countywide rate with a slowdown between 1971 and 1974 due to economic recession and with a modest recovery since that time. The city manager of Anacortes indicated that the develop- ment trend for the city is primarily as a retirement community. Retire- ment living and the recreational opportunities afforded by Fidalgo Island are the attraction for a relatively low level of population growth and the tourism industry. A more rapid rate of residential growth in this city could be keyed to oil industry and other industrial development in the nearby industrial zones (March Point) and in the waterfront area. Presently, roughly half of the industrial work force at March Point resides within the City of Anacortes. As of now several industrial projects are proposed for a fill site on Fidalgo Bay directly opposite the March Point Oil Refinery, assis@ted by federal urban redevelopment monies. These in- clude a sawmill and fish processing plant; the latter would employ 200- 300 persons. Other development proposals for the Anacortes City industrial zone include a pulp mill and a plywood mill, each of which would employ on the order of 100 persons. VII-32 Arthur D Little- Inc The rate of population growth in residential development i n Anacortes proper and in the surrounding areas depends upon the fruition of such po- tential sources of employment. This city which now contains 75% of the total population on Fidalgo Island will probably experience the greatest growth effects since the existing urban areas can more readily provide the framework of municipal services to serve the growth. In addition, the Skagit County's restrictive policies with respect to outlying low-density urban development would tend to discourage a high degree of scattered residential growth in the unincorporated portions of the island. Also significant, the proportion of growth provided by industrial employment as opposed to retirement will affect the age structure of the communit- and its economic prosperity, both of which influence public .Y policy. The economic future of Anacortes and particularly its recovery from a slow period in the early 1970s would seem to depend most heavily on the introduction of new industries such as those proposed which both add directly to the tax base and to the area's employment. Decisions regarding future land use at the city level would thus tend to be favorable to industrial development and associated residential growth, including the oil :industry which now provides employment for about 13% of the families in Anacortes. The city would probably show a preference for industrial proposals actually within its municipal boundaries since only the latter contribute to the city's tax base. Expansion on March Point would not benefit municipal finance directly. (2) Specific Petroleum Development Industrial Sites 0 March Point Land use in the industrially zoned area of March Point is dominated by the refinery sites for Shell Oil and Texaco Oil companies, which own virtually the entire area of the peninsula forming March Point. For both Shell and Texaco, approximately 250 acres is intensively developed as the refinery site -- paved areas, structures, and access roads. The remainder of the land is fallow grass land or pasture land with pockets of second- growth woody vegetation. Both refineries have their main plant on the coastal plain with access roads leading to their offloading facilities at Padilla Bay and their storage tankage at higher elevation to permit petroleum and product movement by gravity flow. The major effect of present and future oil industrial development at March Point concerns the the coastal zone and the near-shore marine environment, particularly in the light: of the coastal zone management program now in effect in Washington. The primary concern is the future productivity of Padilla Bay con- flicting with its potential use as the terminal site for offloading petroleum and as a potential land area for possible industrial expansion by filling. The tideland in Padilla Bay, lying west of the center of the Swinomish. Channel and north to March Point, is designated as "industrial reserve" in the Skagit County Comprehensive Plan for the Island's district. The current status of this land in the plan is to allow industrial develop- ment of that area of tideland when the need is adequately demonstrated, all other alternative sites are exhausted, and the development of the area is the total project leaving no room for subsequent further encroachment on VII-33 Arthur D Little, Inc the tidelands on a piecemeal basis. The county policy further specifies that aquaculture should be encouraged in Padilla Bay and that future filling activities should be conducted so as to preserve the ecological balance in the area. 0 Burrows Bay Since Burrows Bay has been identified as-a possible alternative terminal site for oil transshipment with a connecting pipeline leading across Fidalgo Island, land use in the zone potentially affected is briefly described. No scenario involving Burrows Bay is assessed in this study. Land use in this heavily wooded area is very low-density residential. There are a number of home sites at the top of the steep cliff adjoining Burrows Bay, obviously selected for both view quality and privacy. The rural homesites lying in the vicinity of the potential pipeline route are either small farms or family or retirement residences oriented toward the isolation and recreational opportunities afforded on Fidalgo Island. There are several lakes on the island, extensive forest lands, and Deception Pass State Park at the south end of the island which is one of the most heavily used recreational spots in the state. b. Infrastructure (1) Schools. Four school districts within Skagit County may be affected by population growth associated with petroleum industry employ- ment at March Point': Anacortes, La Conner, Mount Vernon, and Burlington- Edison (see Figure VII-4). Anacortes and Burlington-Edison have exper- ienced an overall decline in enrollment over the last two years (8.6%. and 2.6%, respectively), while the other two have experienced very modest growth (La Conner with 6%, and Mount Vernon with 1%). In Skagit County, the decline or very slow growth in school enrollment is largely attrib- utable to the declining birth rate, since school enrollment generally grew more slowly than the population of these areas, where growth was also due to net in-migration. For example, while the City of Mount Vernon had an 8.1% increase in population between 1974 and 1975 and an overall annual increase of 3.2% over the interval 1971-76, this was not reflected by a corresponding increase in public school enrollment, which increased by only 1% per year over the same period (see Table VII-28). The 1.8% annual decrease in Anacortes district enrollment over this inter- val in the face of its 0.7% rate of annual population growth is due to both the effects of declining birth rate and of advancing age structure of the community, as retired people become a higher proportion of the total residents (see Tables VII-29 through VII-31). Of the four school districts, only Anacortes is still operating with excess capacity. Based on current space standards, the Anacortes district could still provide enrollment for an additional 400 students (19%) with- out experiencing overcrowding of facilities (Table VII-30). In contrast, the three other districts are presently 3-21% over capacity. Burlington- Edison is in the least favorable position with an existing 550 student excess. None of the four districts is augmenting space by using portable classrooms. VII-34 Arthur D Little Inc PADILLA BAY GU EMES ISLAND 0 BURLINGTON-EDISON 0 100 ANACORTES ANACORTES MARCH POINT C) 103 MOUNT VERNON 320 DECEPTION PAi,- LA CONNER 311 0 2 4 6 m km 'A SOURCES: NORTH State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction, "Boundaries of the 303 School Districts in Exis- tence on October 15, 1976". FIGURE VII-4 SCHOOL DISTRICTS: MARCH POINT VII-35 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-28 SCHOOL DISTRICT HISTORICAL-ENROLLMENT - SKAGIT COUNTY Percent 'Total Percent Annual Historical Enrollment (October 1) (K-12) Change Change ACTIVITY ZONE/ 1971 1972 19/3 1914 1975. 1976 1971-76 (Exponential) SCHOOL DISTRICT SKAGIT COUNTY Anacortes 103 2357 2347 2312 2217 2207 2154 -8.6 -1.8 LaConner 311 480 468 462 496 52 9 509 +6.0 +1.2 Mt. Vernon 320 3187 3168 3133 3118 3241 3220 +1.0 +0.2 Burlington-Edison 2731 2738 2706 2668 2651 2661 -2.6 -0.5 100 Source:State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-29 CURRENT ENROLLMENT AND AVERAGE DAILY ATTENDANCE SKAGIT COUNTY Average 1976 Daily Current Enrollment Total Attendance ACTIVITY ZONE/ (October, 1976) 1975-76 SCHOOL DISTRICT SKAGIT COUNTY Anacortes 103 1026 549 579 2154 2026 (K-6) (7-9) (10-12) La Conner 311 321 188 509 463 (K-8) (9@12) Mt. Vernon 320 1570 487 1163 3220 2988 (K-6) (7-8) (9-12) Burlington-Edison 1796 865 2661 2488 100 (K-8) (9-12) Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-36 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-30 SCHOOL DISTRICT EXISTING CAPACITY - SKAGIT COUNTY Sa ti sfac to ry Existing ACTIVITY ZONE/ School District Capacity Remaining SCHOOL DISTRICT Capacity Absolute Number of Temporary Facilities 1976 -pupils Percentage (1975-76 Inventory) SKAGIT COUNTY AflACORTES/MARCH POINT Anacortes 103 2554 +400 +18.6 - LaConner 311 496 -13 -2.6 - Mt. Vernon 320 2966 -254 -7.9 - Burlington-Edison 100 2110 -551 -20.7 - Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction. TABLE VII-31 SCHOOL DISTRICT CERTIFICATED STAFF RATIOS - SKAGIT COUNTY Teachers Other** Jr. Jr. AcriVITY ZONE/ High High Middle Elem. High High Middle Elem. SCHOOL DISTRICT School school School School School School Scftool School SKAGIT COUNTY/ ANACORTES/MARCH PT. Anacortes 103 44.99 45.49 - 44.91 8.83 7.71 5.15 La Conner 311 57.Q - - 41.36 9.88 - 7.14 Mt. Vernon 320 Same as Port-Angeles Burlington-Edison 100 Same as Anacortes MFTE = Full Time Equivalent "Other = School Administrators, Supervisors, and Support Services SOURCE: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instru@tion VII-37 Arthur D Little Inc. The excess capacity in the Anacortes district is due to school con- struction over the last five years and was made possible by $3.5 million in capital expenditures. School construction in a district with declining enrollment implies that the new facilities are intended to deal with pre- viously existing space shortages, and that modest increases in enrollment are expected over the next 5-10 years. The Burlington-Edison district has expended $1.04 million since January 1, 1971 on new facilities de- velopment, which should relieve the majority of the present overcrowding once the new facilities are completed. Neither Mount Vernon nor La Conner district has expended any funds for capital development since the end of 1970, but the latter passed a $225,000 bond issue in May 1974, which should soon be reflected in increased capacity. Mount Vernon has not passed a bond issue since 1964. The total market value of real and personal property for all four districts has increased rapidly since 1974 owing to the revaluation and new construction. Of the four districts, Anacortes and La Conner showed the greatest increases (1974-76); Mount Vernon and Burlington-Edison both showed only a 3-4% increase the first year and then jumped by over 20% the second. (See Tables VII-32 through VII-36.) Among these four districts the assessed valuation per pupil is cor- related with the district's ability to pay its way. For school year 1974-75 (for which data were available), Anacortes and La Conner had revenues per pupil which exceeded their expenditures per pupil, and also had assessed valuation/pupil significantly higher than the other two districts. Both Mount Vernon and Burlington-Edison had a deficit that year between revenue and expenditure (Mount Vernon with $-18/pupil and Burlington-Edison with $-77/pupil). As of July 1976, excess bonding capacity remained in all the districts. Mount Vernon district has excess bonding capacity of over $8 million since it has not passed a bond issue since 1964 and has only $0.13 million of bonded debt remaining. Anacortes has an additional $10.9 million of bonding capacity and has recently incurred $2.0 million of its $3.25 mil- lion in indebtedness through the passage of a bond issue in 1975. La Conner's $0.885 million in remaining capacity reflects the small popula- tion of the district as well as the loss of potential revenue producing lands to agricultural preserves. The relative contribution of the different revenue sources varies markedly for these four Skagit County school districts. The wealthiest, Anacortes, received slightly over half its revenue (1974-75) from local taxes, about one-third from the state, and about 5% federal funding. La Conner, the smallest, received one-third of its revenues from local taxes, a third from the state, and one-quarter from federal sources. Burlington-Edison, the poorest and operating with the largest deficit, received one-fourth of its revenue from local taxes., 58% state assistance, and about 8% federal grant money. Mount Vernon district, with a relatively small deficit per student, received about a third of its operating revenue from local taxes, slightly over half from the state, and only 4% federal money. VII-38 Arthur D LittIc Inc TABLE VII-32 TAXABLE PROPERTY - MARKET VALUE - SKAGIT COUNTY Taxable Property Total Market Value ($ Thousands) ACTIVITY ZONE/ A% SCHOOL DISTRICT 1974 1975 1974-75 1976 1975-76 SKAGIT COUNTY Anacortes 103 260,863.2 311,233.4 +19.3 368,984.1 +18.6 La Conner 311 33,054.9 37,314.6 +12.9 43,471.2 +16.5 lit. Vernon 320 172,546.7 179,097.1 +3.8 215,065.8 +20.1 Burlington-Edison 100 129,381.7 133,663.4 +3.3 161,109.3 +20.5 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-33 ASSESSED VALUE - SKAGIT COUNTY Indicated Ratios* Taxable Property ACTIVITY ZONE/ (Assessed Value/Market Value Assessed Valuation Thousands) SCHOOL DISTRICT 1973 1974 1975 1974 _1975- 1976 SKAGIT COUNTY 44.8 91.1 82.4 ANACORTES/MARCH POINT Anacortes 103 116,866.7 283,533.6 304,042.9 LaConner 311 14,808.6 33,993.6 35,820.3 Mt. Vernon 320 77,300.9 163,IS7.5 177,214.2 Burlington-Edison 100 579,630.0 121,767.4 132,754.1 *Weighted ratio including components for real and personal property Source: State of Washington, Department of Revenue. VII-39 Arthur D Little Inc. TABLE VII-34 SCHOOL DISTRICT REVENUE AND COST SKAGIT COUNTY SOURCES OF REVENUE - 1974-75 REVENUE VS COST (% of total) 1974-75 Market Net County Value Revenue Expendi- Cost ACTIVITY ZONE/ Local Admin. State Federal per per ture per per SCHOOL DISTRICT Taxes Funds Funds Funds Other* Pupil Pupil Pupil" @11** SKAGIT COUNTY/ ANACORTES/MARCH PT. Anacortes 103 54.62 2.88 32.26 5.26 4.98 127,191 1585 1509 1326 La Conner 311 32.53 2.65 33.67 25.91 5.24 68.535 1665 1596 1259 i1t. Vernon 320 31.97 3.80 53.57 4.30 6.36 52,327 1231 1249 1127 Burlinton- Edison 100 25.21 3.61 57.82 8.12 5.24 45,640 1305 1382 1120 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction *Other=Local non-tax reven5e, n'on-revenue receipts, and payment from districts. **See'text for explanation of difference between expenditure and net Cost. TABLE VII-35 SCHOOL DISTRICT BONDING STATUS - SKAGIT COUNTY Bonded Debt ACTIVITY ZONE/ 7/1/76 Amount Last Date SCHOOL DISTRICT ($ Millions) Bond Issue Passed SKAGIT COUNTY ANACORTES/MARCH FOINT Anacortes 103 3.254 2.920 1975 LaConner 311 .815 .225 5/l/74 Mt. Vernon 320 .130 .280 1964 Burlington/Edison 100 1.580 .900 12/72 SOURCE: State of Washington, Superinte ndent of Public Instruction VII-40 Arthur D bak Inc TABLE VII-36 SCHOOL DISTRICT TAX RATES SKAGIT COUNTY ACTIVITY ZONE/ TAX RATES-1976 Collections SCHOOL DISTRICT ($/lOOO of assessed Valuation) Tt-ate bona Special Levy Retirement Levy(Local) SKAGIT COUNTY ANACORTES/MARSH POINT Anacortes 103 4.402 .484 4.723 LaConner 311 4.402 3.867 6.856 Mt. Vernon 320 4.402 6.009 5.798 BUrlington-Edison 100 4.489 1.883 6.032 SOURCE: Tax Assessor's Office/Clallam, Skagit, Whatcom Counties VII-41 Arthur D Little, Inc All four districts passed their special levy appropriations in 1975 (for taxes collected in calendar 1976) in the first election. As a re- sult each district collected between $4.7 and $6.8/$1,000 of assessed valuation via the local excess school levy which, matched by the $4.402/ $1,000 collected by the state, accounted for between 52% and 61% of all property taxes collected for public school operations. (2) Water Supply. The sole source of drinking water for the City of Anacortes is the Skagit River. Anacortes operates a water treatment filtration plant very near the City of Mount Vernon. The plant's design capacity is 33 MGD, but it actually produces only 18 MGD of treated water of which 90% is used by industry. The City of Anacortes uses about 1.8 MGD or about 10% of the plant's water production. This same filtra- tion plant also supplies drinking water to several others in the vicinity of Anacortes, including the Town of La Conner, five to six miles south of the Mount Vernon-Anacortes Road. The Skagit County Public Utilities District buys water from Anacortes and retails it both on Fidalgo Island and to the scattered population between Mount Vernon and Anacortes. In addition, the communities of Oak Harbor and the Naval Air Station on Whidbey Island both buy water from the Anacortes plant. Because water 41 supply distribution is so complex in the Anacortes area, the DSHS Seattle office has proposed thatAnacortes directly supply all of Fidalgo Island. The county PUD would then restrict service to the mainland west of Mount Vernon. While there are no problems with capacity of this plant to serve the population in the area, pipelines from this plant cannot always be sent out to outlying communities because the pipes in its present distribution system are too small. Anacortes has received a federal HUD Community Development Act grant to upgrade its pipe system. Other than this program, no expansion in the Anacortes plant is planned for the near future. Inside the city limits of Anacortes no wells exist because none are allowed. Building permits are simply not granted to people inside city limits who do not currently receive city water; they will be forced to wait until the pipe system is upgraded. In outlying rural areas, in- dividual wells exist and are sufficient for families with five-acre tracks. In addition, some small community water systems on Fidalgo Island obtain water from small community wells or buy their water from Anacortes via the county PUD for subsequent distribution to their own members. The consumption rate of Anacortes' drinking water is a fairly typical 100 gallons per person per day (G/PD) and 150 G./PD with sprinklers. Water use is metered. Mount Vernon's water supply is purchased from the Skagit County PUD; its source is a large reservoir, Judy Reservoir, fed by a spring with other water coming from Rannee wells near the Skagit River. The 'capacity of Judy Reservoir is 33 MGD, with its peak production now at 10 MGD,- Of this amount, Mount Vernon uses about 1.1 MGD on an average day, twice that on a peak day. While the total service population of the reservoir is about 31,000, the service population in Mount Vernon is about 10,000, and VII-42 Arthur D Little Inc the remainder are in the Town of Burlington, Sedro Woolley, and vicinity. Water quality problems include occasional elevated turbidity and coliform; capacity, problems do not exist now, but a filtration plant will probably be built in about 10 years. A use pattern, peculiar to the Mount Vernon area that tends to use large amounts of water, is irrigation in rural areas; this irrigation produces a peak water consumption rate of almost 400 G/PD, almost three times the average consumption rate of 130 G/PD. (3) Wastewater. Anacortes operates a .8 MGD primary sewage treat- ment plant which discharges into Guemes Channel. Because its effluent is the result of only primary treatment and because its sewer population of 8000 is very close to the design population of about 9000, plans are being made for expansion and upgrading of the Anacortes treatment plant. A facilities plan is now being completed. In the engineering report, an environmental assessment has been made; a negative declaration or a re- quirement for an EIS may be issued by the EPA and the Department of Ecology. The new plant for Anacortes will involve secondary treatment and an expansion of hydraulic capacity to about 5 MGD. An additional element in Anacortes' future system is a connection from the City of Skyline on the west side of Fidalgo Island into the sewage collection system for the Anacortes treatment plant. This connection would involve only about 20,000 gallons per day addition to the system. (See Tables VII-37 and VII-38.) Mount Vernon completed construction of a secondary treatment plant discharging into the Skagit River in 1974. Its capacity is less than 1 MGD, and seems adequate for its present service population. There is a proposal to include the Big Lake community which is outside Mount Vernon's city limits in Mount Vernon's sewage system. Big Lake has no adequate receiving water nearby and so would pump its waste to the Mount Vernon plant. Negotiations are under way at present. If the proposal is approved, Mount Vernon will have to expand its treatment plant slightly. (4) Solid Waste. The closest solid waste disposal sites to Anacortes are about five miles to the southeast: Gibraltar Sanitary Landfill on Similk Bay and the Whitmarsh site on Padilla Bay. The Whitmarsh site has been closed since 1974, while the Gibraltar Landfill is still in use. Leachate is not sampled unless water quality problems develop in the waters receiving landfill runoff. Information is not given in the Department of Ecology's 303(e) documents as to the expected life times or service areas of solid waste disposal sites. No air or water quality problems were cited in connection with either disposal site. (5) Transportation. Western Skagit County is served by Interstate 5 which passes from south to north just east of the Town of Mount Vernon and by a number of state highways. Route 20 extends from Oak Harbor on Whidbey Island through Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and east to Sedro Woolley. Other state highways in the Mount Vernon vicinity are Routes 11, 237, 534, and 9. The main county road is Lake Forest Road which enters Anacortes from the south. VII-43 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-37 WASTEWATER DISPOSAL - SERVICE POPULATION: MARCH POINT/ANACORTES Existing Wastewater Generation Rates Municipal Unsewered a Flow Sewered c Flow Design Basin Plant Population (m d) Population cd) Population Skagit City of 164 .82 8,000 102.5 9,417 Anacortes City of 67 .02 150 133.3 673 Skyline a 1975 estimate, within incorporated limits b Average daily flow for 1975 in million gallons per day c 1975 estimate d Gallons per capita per day Source: Skagit Basin Water Quality Management Plan. TABLE VII-38 WASTEWATER DISPOSAL - DISCHARGE LOCATION: MARCH POINT/ANA NPDES Permit Existing Status Municipal Level of Discharge Have In District Upgrading Basin Plant Treatment Locatio6 Permit Compliance or Expansion Plans NP Skagit City of Primary Guemes Anacortes Channel Yes No 201 Plans being prepared to upgrade, expand STP, and correct infiltration and inflow problems City of Primary Burrows Yes No Planning being done on Skyline Bay feasibility of constructing an interceptor line from Skyline to Anacortes STP Source: Skagit Basin Water Quality Management Plan VII-44 Arthur D Little- Inc The only state road on Fidalgo Island is Route 20. While the segment east of Anacortes is far below its capacity, the segments of Route 20 northwest and south of Anacortes have problems of bottlenecks typical on two-lane rural roads, which are called upon to serve peak loads due to tourism. Although average volume to capacity ratio (V/C) is under 1.0, the traffic load on these roads reaches and exceeds capacity at a few points. (See Table VII-39.) Western Skagit County is served by several local roads in addition to Interstate 5 and the above mentioned state highways. Access to Bay View is via the La Conner and Samish Road and Johnson Road. Numerous local arterial roads in the Mount Vernon vicinity include McLean Road, River Bend Road, Blackburn Road, Digby Road and Division Street. Of the state roads serving the Mount Vernon area, only two have traffic loads approaching capacity: Route 20 between Interstate 5 and Sedro Woolley, and Route 538 between Mount Vernon and Route 9. Maximum V/C ratios are near and over 1.0, respectively, while average V/C values are high at around 0.70. All other segments of these routes and other state roads are far below capacity. C. Terrestrial Biology (1) March Point. The remaining open lands of the peninsula forming the portion of Fidalgo Island with March Point at the northern tip are in a state of early succession. Of the approximately 1700 acres forming this peninsula, roughly 500 have been effectively converted to urban in- dustrial use by the two oil companies -- Shell and Texaco. Roughly 800 acres, of open lands not in agriculture remain on the peninsula; 500 acres, are in the ownership of the two oil companies. The vegetation of these open space areas is divided between early second-growth forest with many deciduous trees and shrubs and very early successional disturbed grasslands which are slowly being invaded by trees and shrubs. The recency of disturbance in portions adjacent to roads is evidenced by the abundance of weedy species such as introduced composites, including thistles and goldenrod. Common trees and shrubs include the highly characteristic big leaf maple, vine maple, red alder, ocean spray, snow- berry, and willow. No upland areas of particular envirnmental sensitivity were identified in this portion of Fidalgo Island. (2) Burrows Bay (hypothetical offshore terminal and pipeline). The cliff which would be traversed by pipeline leading from the offshore moor- ing point to the main pipeline corridor at Burrows Bay is extremely steep with dense stands of Douglas firs and other conifers extending from top to bottom. The area is in a relatively advanced seral stage with many mature conifers and pockets of deciduous species, particularly alders. The area 'has the appearance of being in a relatively undisturbed state and is also highly scenic. The pipeline route alignment across Fidalgo Island would traverse an area of fairly well developed seral forest with a relatively high proportion of mature coniferous trees. Some portions of the route are in fallow fields where shrubs such as gorse, snowberry, and several members of the genus Rubus (bramble) have invaded. There are also some drier pockets within the forest on the road adjacent to Lake Campbell which harbor pockets of Pacific madrone. Arthur D Little, Inc. VII-45 TABLE VII-39 HIGHWAY VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIOS - SKAGIT COUNTY Volume/Capacity Ratio Standard Road No. Control Section Maximum Mean D viation 1-5 2901 0.55 .47 1095 2902 0.66 .57 .096 2903 0.59 ..53 .061 2904 0-.36 34 .011 20 2931 1.00 .25 .168 2932 1.99 .70 .473 2934 0.49 .38 .076 2948 .0.29 .26 .012 2906 n.a. 2907 2937 0.95 .73 .161 237 2933 @0.12 .10 .017 11 2905 0.24 .11 .055 538 2936 1.08 .70 .351 534 2935 0.57 .13 .128 9 2938 0.17 .12 .037 2939 0.42 .31 .055 2940 0.38 .18 .073 VII-46 Arthur D Little, Inc d. Air Quality Air quality in western Skagit County is affected by the Shell and Texaco major refineries and by a sulfite pulp mill located at Anacortes. The refineries emit large quantities of sulfur oxide particulates and hydrocarbons. Sulfur oxides are the principal emissions from the sulfur pulp mill; annual emissions for the area are in excess of 14,000 tons (see Table VII-40). The prevailing winds in some seasons direct both hydrocarbon and sulfur oxides eastward toward the minor urban areas stretching north from Seattle along Puget Sound. Although oxidant is not monitored in the immediate vicinity of Anacortes, it is probable that oxidant 'Levels approaching the federal standard are occasionally exper- ienced in the inland plains to the east. Since meteorologic conditions are variable in the area, it is likely that conditions occasionally exist that would restrict the dissipation of such industrially generated pollu- tants as sulfur oxides and reactive organic gases. Sulfur oxide monitor- ing at March Point shows significant emissions but only occasional violation of air quality standards (see Table VII-41). e. Water Quality/Marine Biology March Point and Anacortes, on Fidalgo Island, are in the Skagit River basin (see Table VII-42). The most intense uses of these waters are navigation, recreational boating, wildlife habitat, and sport fishing. In addition to shellfish and shrimp culture, salmon fisheries (sports and commercial) and waterfowl areas are located in these waters. This basin receives the discharges of six major industries and two minor municipal treatment'. plants. Scott Paper is the largest of all dischargers; the 6.5 MGD effluent has high biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and high temperatures. Publishers Forest Products discharges 5 MBD, but no data was available on the quality of this effluent. The Texaco and Shell re- fineries present in this basin also discharge effluents with high tempera- tures, high pH, and chemicals such as ammonia, sulfides, phenolic com- pounds, and chromium. The cities of Anacortes and Skyline discharge small amounts of primary effluent into the waters surrounding Fidalgo Island. There are four segments in this basin; all have Class A waters except for Burrows Bay with Class AA waters. All segments are classed as effluent limited by the Department of Ecology. Historical and 1974 water quality data show no apparent significant violations of water quality standards. However, in two of the four segments a problem with septic tank drain field and solid waste land fill leachates was reported. In addition, Anacortes Sewage Treatment Plant effluent exceeds standards. Be- cause of these problems and possibly because of larger populations, three or the four segments comprising the project site vicinity are ranked first, second, and third in problem severity out of 12 in the basin. Besides the existing biological resources and beneficial uses, several state and city recreation areas exist in this site's vicinity which need to be protected from oil-related pollution. The water quality issues which were cited in the 303(e) report for this basin were limited to contamination of beaches and oyster beds from sanitary wastes. Padilla VII-47 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-40 ANNUAL AIR EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING SOURCES AT MARCH POINT 41 Emissions (tons per year) Source Particulate so 2 NO x HC Co 41 Shell 1400 8230 1280 2520 580 Texaco 1020 5610 1770 2530 - Scott Paper 10 390 60 2 5 Allied Chemical 1 190 - - TABLE VII-41 AIR MONITORING DATA - MARCH POINT SULFUR DIOXIDE Annual maximum # hours Annual maximum Annual hourly average > 40 pphm 24 hour average Average 1974 22 0 6 1 1975 20 0 7 1 1976 26 0 6 0 Source: State of Washington, Department of Ecology. VII-48 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-42 WATER QUALITY/ANACORTES - MARCH POINT SKAGIT RIVER BASIN - WATER RESOURCES INVENTORY AREA 3 Existinj Water Quality Segment 02 - Padilla Bay: Class A, effluent limited. Good water quality, no significant viola- tions in 1974 data. Problems: landfill and septic tank leachate into oyster beds and beaches. Ranked 3rd of 12 in problem severity. Segment 03.- Fidalgo Bay: Class A, effluent limited. 1974 data show no apparent violations and "quite good" water quality. Ranked 2nd of 12 in problem severity. Segment 04 - Guemes Channel: Class A, effluent limited. Historical data indicate no violations and "quite good" water quality. Problems: failing septic tank drain fields; Anacortes' sewage treatment plant effluent exceeds standards. Ranked 1st of 12 in problem severity. Segment 08 - Burrows Bay: Class A, effluent limited. No data available. Ranked 7th of 12 in problem severity. Issues Contamination from sanitary wastes (municipal and septic tank fields). Segments 02, 03, and 04 ranked highest in Basin for urgency of water quality problems. Beneficial Uses Navigation Boating Wildlife habitat Sport fishing Scenic viewing Industrial use Log rafting Shellfish rearing Commercial fishing Aquatic Resources Pacific Oyster Culture Intertidal hardshell clams Dungeness Crabs Shrimp Salmon fishery - sport and commercial Major waterfowl area and eelgrass beds Public Recreation/-Protected Areas Anacortes City Park Washington Department of Game Waterfowl area and State tidelands Saddlebag Island State Park 3 underwater recreation areas Dischargas Within 10 Miles of Marine Terminal Dischargers Quantity (mgd) Effluent Scott Paper 6.46 High Biochemical Oxygen Demand, high temperature Farwest Fisheries 0.6 -no data- Texaco 3.0 High Suspended Solids, high pH, high temperature Shell 2.1 Ammonia, sulfides, chromium, phenolic compounds, high pH Allied Chemical 0.03 -no data- Publishers Forest Products 5.0 -no data- City of Anacortes 1.3 Primary effluent City of Skyline 0.5 Primary'effluent Sources: Department of Ecology, 303(e) Skagit River Basin; Department of Natural Resources, Marine @,tlas,1974; Department of Ecology, f@ @,tcilS,. VII-49 Arthur D Little, Inc Bay supports large populations of flatfish and serves as a nursery area for finfish such as salmon and steelhead, and for invertebrates such as crabs, clams, and oysters -- productivity of the latter two is enhanced by mariculture. Waterfowl such as gulls, brant, diving, and dabbling ducks utilize the juvenile fish resources on the extensive eelgrass beds as food. Padilla Bay is recognized to be such an important resource that this 15,000-acre area has been classified as an area of statewide signifi- cance under the State Shoreline Management Act. The Skagit River delta and estuary comprises a highly productive habitat in Puget Sound, and one of the most important waterfowl marshes in the state. Whistling swans and snow geese are among the many birds which occur here. 3. Cherry Point/Ferndale - Whatcom County Cherry Point is a broad portion of the flat plateau of western Whatcom County, presently the site of three major industries (the Atlantic Richfield and Mobil Oil refineries and Intalco Aluminum). Major com- munities are the towns of Ferndale to the east, Blaine to the north, with the large City of Bellingham 12 miles to the southeast (Figure VII-5). The agricultural economy has been strong in western Whatcom County, but the newer elements of tourism and industrial development have risen in significance over the past decade. Industrial operations along Cherry Point are facilitated by the deep'water of Georgia Strait that lies close to the shore. Cherry Point has no enclosed anchorage, but its location on the inner Puget Sound provides a relatively mild wave and wind environ- ment. Marinp terminals may be located anywhere along the shore immediately adjoining industrial development. a. Land Use (1) Regional. Land use in Whatcom County is similar to land use in Skagit County in that the predominant acreages are either in agriculture, both intensive and extensive, or in forest. At the present time, 4.5% of the land area of Whatcom County is in urban use (22,000 acres, not broken down by specific land use category)i (See Table VII-43.) Nearly 30% is in agriculture, including grazing lands and, as in Skagit County, this occupies the lowlands in the western third of the county. Most of the forest lands, 63% of the county area, are in the mountainous, eastern two-thirds of the county. Those include a very high proportion of public lands -- Mt. Baker National Forest and the North Cascades National Park. The county contains a number of small incorporated communities which grew up as early logging or fishing centers, railroad stops, and gradually were converted into agricultural communities. These include the two small cities potentially affected by oil development projects at Cherry Point -- Ferndale and Blaine -- and several other communities to the east. The one large industrial city, Bellingham (population 42,000), assumed its preeminence owing to its location on Bellingham Bay which facilitated shipping and supply operations for the continuing activity of the county. Population growth in Whatcom County is occurring in and around urban centers, mostly as low-density suburban development (see Table VII-44). Some growth, designated by the county as "rural non-farm" land use, is VII-50 Arthur D Little, Inc 4@@ Rw w ach 00 8 A --alai ie----T_- GI Birch Point IL Ly dbn 4 Cottonwo Birch Bay rch B uster Sj@pn Point Whitehorn 39 I-ake r) Tc-*,, r r e --S'ure I G4 M 7n@ King tn 0 Sandy Point Lummi Bay ucia HA land he LUNG M1 BA Y South ellingham is oftstitut, A E Govemors' Point L nce 0 ri, w efs in' Carter A Arco Refinery 0 Mi ri Mobil Refinery 0 3 6 9 kMA @ Possible Marine Terminal NORTH FIGURE VII-5 LOCATION: CHERRY POINT A t'A r1J\ Ltn C, VII-51 Arthur D Little, Inc, TABLE VII-43 LAND USE - ACREAGE - WHATCOM COUNTY I Activity Zone Residential Industrial Agri cul tura I Timber Commercial Other Whatcom County 21,760 See First Column c 140,000 304,000 Set! First Column 16,640 (1970) (4.5%) (29.0%) (63.0%) (Rural/nonfarm) (Includes pasture and fallow) Ferndale N N N N N Blaine N N N N N Bellingham 11,250 950 150 150 750 1,750 cWhatcom County comprehensive plan lumps all three categorfes as "Urban'and Intensive" Data not available Source: Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan (1970); Bellingham Planning Department. TABLE VII-44 1W GROWTH TRENDS AND PLANNING PERSPECTIVE - WHATCOM COUNTY AM Activity Zone Growth Trends/Planning Perspective Whatcom County More rapid growth than in neighboring'Skagit County due to development interest and speculation by British Columbian business and private developers. Reflected in lack of interest in preservation of agricultural and open space lands (only 25% in RCW 84.34).- Major development areas are inc orporated cities. Ferndale Much subdivision activity in and around the city over the last 5 years - a continuing trend. Some land speculation by Canadian developers. Growth is due to employment in local industries (Intalco Aluminum, Mobil, Atlantic Richfield) and Bellingham industries (pulp mills, logging, dairy). Blaine Growth has occurred mostly outside the city limits. Bellingham Slow upward trend in population. Uneven growth rate due to market changes in various industries. Prime areas for residential growth are NE between 1-5 and Lake Whatcom, South Central Valley area and SW, along the Bay. Source: Whatcom County Planning Department; City Planning Departments. VTT-52 Arthur D Little- In(a taking place on marginal agricultural lands and other farm lands which have been. left idle by land speculation and rising prices. Seasonal, recreational residential development, and general recreational land use is important in Whatcom County; one major market is Canadian tourists coming from the large Vancouver area. In addition to single family development primarily to serve year-round demand, there is a very high degree of subdivision activity to serve recreational demand -- recreational vehicle parking sites, mobile homes, cabins, and resort units. 0 Land Values Available parcel sizes for residential development are on the average one-third acre in the unincorporated lands of Whatcom County and one- fifth acre within the city limits of Ferndale (see Table VII-45). The cost per acre is approximately $13,600 to $20,400 for average lots in the flatlands and as high as $41,000 to $54,400 for view lots. Prices per acre are similar in both the incorporated and unincorporated areas. Within the county there has been a 10% annual rise in residential land values over the last five years, which is slightly above the general in- flation rate in the county. The incorporated areas have experienced a higher rate of land appreciation (14.5% annually, reported for Blaine). Agricultural land sells for between $800 per acre for extensive (pasture) use, and $1500-2500 per acre for cash crops, depending upon location, soil type, and other factors. Whatcom County land use regulations com- prise numerous zoning designations allowing for between five families per acre and one family per 40 acres. The price per acre generally drops with increasing parcel size and is also related to the likelihood of the continuation of agricultural practice. 0 Land Use Trends/Planning Perspectives Land use trends and planning issues in Whatcom County are in some ways more complex than in neighboring Skagit County because of the in- fluence of nearby Canadian businesses and land developers and because of the migration and recreational pressure from the City of Vancouver, roughly 50 miles to the north. In the first place, speculation by Canadian land developers is causing a general inflation in land values and, in particular, an inflationary trend in farm land prices which is taking valuable farm land out of production owing to the subdivision and occasional sales of neighboring parcels which lead to their revaluation. Unsuccessful speculation is also a problem. The 1970 Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan reported that in 1969 alone there were enough pro- posals for lot subdivisions to account for all of the population growth projected for Whatcom County between 1970 and 1990. A secondary effect of land speculation in the county, which is also detrimental to the health of the agricultural economy, is the perception by farmers of the imminent profit to be made by the sale of their lands for urban development. This is borne out by the fact that only 25% of all prime agricultural lands in Whatcom County (35,000 acres) have been put into open space preserve taxation status. (Recall that in Skagit VII-53 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-45 LAND VALUES WHATCOM COUNTY Residential Agriculture Timber Parcel Acreage in X 9 Activity Zone Valuc/Acre Size Trend Valuc/AcLe RC ,4.34 Valuc/Acre Miatcom County 13,600/ac- 20,400 1/3 acre 10'- annual 800/ac 3S,000 (25%) S30-138/ac depending on (average lots) rise in land (grazing) ac soil type and access. 40,800/ac- values (last 1,500/ac- 54,450/ac 5 years). 2,50C/ac (view lots) (cash crops) Ferndale Similar to l/S acre None Whatcom County Blaine 14.5% annual None inflation in lot prices. Bellingham $15 , 000/ac re 3/10 acre 12-151'. annual None inflation in housing and land cost Source: Whatcom County Planning'Department; City Planning Departments. VII-54 Arthur D Little, Inc County, 90% of prime agricultural lands had been so classified.) Thus, the owners of over 100,000 acres of crop and pasture lands in Whatcom County are sufficiently motivated by the prospect of near-term sale of their land that they are not interested in the tax relief for farm production afforded by the open space taxation laws such as RCW 84.34. The intensity of the demand for recreational property in Whatcom County is documented in a study of the Birch Bay community just south of Blaine as part of the revised preliminary comprehensive plan for Birch Bay. Development forms a roughly concentric ring around the semi- circular boundary of Birch Bay. The study indicated a 1975 permanent population of 3000 persons residing in 1000 dwelling units (950 permanent and 50 mobile homes), and a seasonal population of an additional 7000 per- sons, mostly Canadian visitors. By the year 1990 the permanent popula- tion is expected to double, and the summer seasonal component to increase to 20,000. Logically enough the means of livelihood for the permanent residents is largely the tourist industry with a smaller proportion em- ployed in neighboring Blaine or at the Blaine Air Force Base. The antici- pation of a rapidly growing seasonal recreation demand has already created a major flurry of subdivision activity in Birch Bay. The study noted that the aggregate of all residential cabins, mobile homes, and recreational vehicle lots currently available or proposed for the community will pro- vide all of the dwelling unit space necessary to accommodate the projected 1990 population, both permanent and seasonal. This amounts to 5750 new units and lots of which 30% are already available within existing subdivisions. Over the course of the last six years, the growth rate in Whatcom County as a whole has been modest, but has averaged three times the rate for Skagit County according to official state estimates (see Tables VII-46 through VII-48). A large proportion of the growth in the unincorporated areas has taken place just outside the city coundaries and has the form of relatively low-density suburban sprawl. Residential growth in the un- incorporated county has taken place at approximately the same rate as in the cities as a result of both urban growth itself and as a result of the suburbanization of the unincorporated periphery. Official state population estimates indicate that the rate of growth in both the county and the incorporated cities slowed as a result of the economic recession in the early 1970s. However, some of the urban com- munities, particularly Ferndale, continued to grow at a very rapid rate in comparison to the surrounding areas. Ferndale had the major growth spurt in 1970-72 when growth was taking place between 10% and 16% per year, and sustained an overall average annual growth rate for the period 1970-76 of 6.2%. The rate of growth in the City of Baline was much more modest by comparison but still averaged over 50% more than the countywide rate. The mayor of Ferndale indicated that the rapid growth rate in his municipality was due to growth in local industry employment, including the Atlantic Richfield Refinery (1971). He indicated that the majority of Ferndale residents were employed in the three nearby industries Intalco Aluminum, Mobil Oil, and Atlantic Richfield. Some seasonal 10 VII-55 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-46 POPULATION GROWTH - WHATCOM COUNTY 1970/76 (6 year) Activity Zone 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 Ann. Av. 1976 Population Whatcom County +2,2% +1.4% 0 +0.2% +1.2% +4.4% +1.6% 90,000 Ferndale +15.6% +9.6% +2.2% +4.5% +3.5% +2.3% .+6.2% 3,100 Blaine +2.3% 0 +2.5% +3.4% +5.7% +1.1% +2.5% 2,265 Bellingham +0.8% +2.0% 1-0.74% +7.5% +1.2% +2.7% +1.1% 42,100 *Population Growth Rate 1970/76 Source: Washington State Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management/Population Studies Division. e TABLE VII-47 COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE 1970-76 - WHATCOM COUNTY POPULATION COMPONENTS OF CHANGE Change Natural Net Immi- 1970 1976 Number % Births Deaths Increase gration A B C (=B-A) D E F (=D-E) G (C-F) 81,983 90,000 +8017 9.8 7,556 4,816 2,740 5,277 Source: Taken from Table 10, State of Washington Population Trends, 1976. Population Studies Division; Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management. TABLE VII-48 OFFICIAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS - WHATCOM COUNTY P R 0 J E C T E'D_ P0 P U L A T 1 0 1975 ACTIVITY ZONE 1975 Actual 1980 1985 1990 1995 .2000 Whatcom Co. 82,960 86,200 90,110 97,250 104,4.00 111,500 118,500 SOURCE: State of Washington, Office of Program Planning and Fiscal flanagement Official Estimates August, 1972 VII-56 Arthur D Little, Inc employment was also provided by a local food processing plant, and the remainder of Ferndale residents commuted to Bellingham to jobs in the pulp mill, other forest product industries, and dairy plants. The relatively rapid growth of Ferndale in comparison to Blaine is an indication of the greater appeal of the latter as a place of residence. Within a 10-mile radius of the industrial complex located near Cherry Point, the Whatcom County Comprehensive Plan recognizes a number of land use planning categories which reflect both current land use and zoning regulations in force, and are expected to determine the overall pattern of land use and population growth distribution over the next 20 years without substantial change. Within this region the major transportation corridor, Interstate 5, runs diagonally between the border at Blaine and the City of Bellingham. Ferndale has developed as a population node adjacent to the highway. Major land use categories form a mosaic of lands designated rural, agriculture, and five-acre smallholdings, with suburban and potential suburban far less common and concentrated in the areas surrounding existing cities around Birch Bay and on the Lummi Indian Reservation. To the south of Bellingham,. on both sides of the highway, is an area designated multiple use forestry which is a zone of wooded, mountainous terrain with several lakes. Transecting the region almost at right angles to Interstate 5 is the Nooksack River and its associated floodplain. The only area designated for industry outside the City of Bellingham is the existing industrial complex at Cherry Point. The distinctions between the various land use categories are impor- tant as a reflection of the present orientation toward residential sub- urban growth in the county. The difference between suburban and poten- tial suburban as land use categories is that the former is reserved for the areas of major population concentration which have an existing frame- work of urban services and in which the county desires to encourage in- filling development. The potential suburban category defines areas which are clearly destined for residential development but where urban services are not presently available. The intent of the potential suburban classi- fication is to preclude non-residential development in these areas. The county intends that each of these areas should first develop at a relatively low density (about one family per five acres) with individual water supply and wastewater disposal. Once the dispersed phase of low-density growth has been completed, a second phase of re-subdivision should be preceded by the extension of urban services, probably from the adjacent municipality and accompanied by annexation. Once the public provisions of community services becomes a viable reality, then the density of development approved by the county and reflected in the zoning rises to three families per gross acre. An equally important distinction is between the three categories -- agricultural, rural, and five-acre small holding. Areas designated agricultural allow development at a maximum density of one family per 20 acres and are intended to maintain their productive agriculture use. To some degree this comprehensive plan classification corresponds to the lands which have been placed in open space preserve status. The category five-acre small holding corresponds to areas slated for limited develop- ment while. protecting intermittent agriculture. Any industrial or com- mercial development should be oriented toward the needs or products of the 10 VII-57 Arthur D Little, Inc area, either food or forest products. The rural classification is largely for lands whose urban development status is uncertain. These are lands which have.historically been used for agriculture but which have recently become subject to land speculation. At present, very little acreage is in agriculture preserve status and present land uses comprise a mixture of part-tim& farming and rural (non-farm) residential with occasional rural industry or commercial business. In recognition of the potential for future urban development in areas where land economics have made farming marginal, county policies indicate develop- ment at a permissible density of one dwelling unit per net acre accord- ing to the availability of the appropriate utilities and services and have designated that all categories of industrial development which fit into their classification "select industrial" are acceptable in the rural area. The City of Ferndale adopted a zoning ordinance in 1974 which embodies the intent of land use planning for a small urban municipality and which has been rigorously enforced. All of the city lands are zoned for either residential or commercial development with the exception of the flood zone of the Nooksack River which runs diagonally through city land. Zoning categories in the city are generally much higher density than those permitted in the unincorporated areas; they range from 11suburban estate" -- one family per acre -- in the extreme northeast corner, to a maximum of 1000 square feet per family in multi-family dwellings. Such high-density development within the incorporated boundary is favored from a planning perspective by both city and county government since it concentrates the population and facilitates the delivery of urban services from both the point of view of physical facilities con- figuration and economics. Roughly 30% of all the land within the city limits of Ferndale is presently developed and an additional population of 10,000 could be accommodated by infilling development alone with no extension of the urban boundary. Additional new residences could be accommodated in the unincorporated areas with no change in land use policy or zoning, provided that urban services could be made available. a @(2) Specific Petroleum Development Sites and Vicinity. The Mountain View industrial district of Whatcom County (so-called by the County Planning Department) is the coastal area between Birch Bay and Lummi Bay. The total area designated primarily industrial in the comprehensive plan extends from Grandview Road on the north, south nearly to Slater Road, and lies roughly between Jackson Road on the west, except for the portion directly touching the coast, and the Burlington-Northern right-of- way on the east. Cherry Point, in the center of the industrial district, is roughly nine miles south of Blaine and seven miles west of Ferndale. There is an additional tract of land which adjoins the Birch Bay suburban community zoned select industrial reserve north of Grandview Road, and north of the developed portion of the Atlantic Richfield Re- finery. Two additional areas also designated select industrial include the land lying between Jackson Road and the Point Whitehorn residential neighborhood and south and east of the Mobil facility. Categories in the vicinity of the industrial zone include a large area designated rural @VII-58 Arthur D Littk Inc by the Comprehensive Plan, lying to the east and north. Suburban and potential suburban categories exist largely in a band following the shore- line to the north and south of the industrial area, and at the outskirts of incorporated Ferndale. Several square miles of land designated long- term agriculture are located south of Slater Road and in the flood plain of the Nooksack River. The Lummi Indian Reservation occupies the peninsula of land separating Lummi Bay from Bellingham Bay. The entire shoreline of the reservation is designated suburban in the Comprehensive Plan with the interior potential suburban, as a result of the land use policies practiced by the Lummi Tribal Council. . Individual industrial sites within the Mountain View district are not all intensively developed at present. The most northern refinery site, the Atlantic Richfield property, comprises about 630 acres plus shore side access at Cherry Point. Roughly three-quarters of the site is in- tensively used for the plant (factory buildings, tank farm, access roads, and other associated structures); the remaining fourth is approximately two-thirds cleared land (fallow and grazing land) and one-third second growth woodland. Standard Oil owns a large piece of property just south of the Atlantic Richfield site -- roughly 920 acres of land suitable for re- finery development -- and about 35 acres of backup for shore access at Cherry Point. Standard Oil holdings are presently completely undeveloped and they are a mosaic of fallow land and extensive agriculture inter- spersed with second growth woodland of varying age (see separate descrip- tion of forest land under terrestrial biology). The southernmost re- finery site, Mobil Oil, is a rectangular parcel roughly 630 acres in size of which half is intensively developed as the plant proper. The majority of the undeveloped land is heavily wooded with some cleared land on the periphery. The remaining lands with industrial classification in the Mountain View district are also presently undeveloped and form a mosaic of wooded and cleared areas. The exception is the Intalco Aluminum plant site which occupies '150 acres. The agricultural lands within the industrial zone are largely either grazed or left unutilized. The presence of previously cleared land left fallow also has allowed for forest recolonization now at different stages of maturity depending on the recency of tree species invasions. The purpose of the three separate industrial classifications for land as applied to the Mountain View district is to restrict and regulate the future uses of the undeveloped portions of the industrial zone. The category of primary industry is given only to the already developed site and to the remaining potential refinery site owned by Standard Oil. Within the zone designated for heavy industry, the county policies stress mini- mization of air and water pollution as well as the avoidance of conflict between adjoining uses -- either other industries or different categories of land use. The designation select industrial implies that although future industrial development of the sites is permissible, it must be of a type producing little or no public nuisance or pollution. The select industrial classification was created to provide a transitional area be- tween primary industry and unrelated land uses in the surroundings. The VII-59 Arthur D Little, Inc. remaining category, select industrial reserve, specifically applies to areas suitable for select industrial development but. which do not presently have the framework of necessary utilities such as power, water, etc. These areas could have their classification changed to select industrial once their services become available. b. Infrastructure (1) Schools. Four school districts in Whatcom County are potentially affected by future petroleum activities in the vicinity of Cherry Point -- Bellingham, Ferndale, Meridian, and Blaine. (See Figure VII-6.) Of these, Bellingham and Blaine have experienced enrollment decline over the last five years; Ferndale and Meridian have had significant growth. All districts were growing by at least 1% per year in total population in the same time interval, again showing the effect of a diminishing birth rate coupled with an advancing age structure of the community due to a demo- graphic@transition brought about by young adults leaving the county to seek employment elsewhere, leaving a higher proportion of post-reproductive parents with children gradually passing school age. Even in Ferndale where growth in school enrollment was 3.3% per year, the proportional rate of enrollment growth was only about two-thirds the rate of population growth (see Table VII-46 and Tables VII-49 and VII-50). Blaine is presently just at capacity with respect to its existing facilities, and the other three districts are all over capacity by 8-10%. Only Bellingham district is using portable classrooms, and these serve only 64 of the 732 pupil equivalents over its satisfactory existing capacity (see Tables VII-51 and VII-52). Since Whatcom County, owing to numerous factors discussed under land use, is experiencing more rapid growth and urbanization pressure than neighboring Skagit, this is to some degree reflected in the attitude toward new capital development of school facilities. All four districts have passed a bond issue as recently as 1973 (Bellingham, May 1976). To alleviate existing de- ficiencies in school capacities, as well as in anticipation of new growth leading to higher enrollments, all four districts have expended funds between $0.4 and $1.6 million in the last five years for new facilities construction and have committed between $0.5 and $4.2 million additional with the passage of the most recent bond issues. The total true and fair value of taxable property in all four school districts rose 40-50% in the single year 1974-75, most likely due to a change in the method of property valuation in the same year, as well as to the effects of inflation and new construction (see Tables VII-53 VII-54). In the following year (1975-76) the value of taxable property rose again with the minimum rise of 5% in Blaine and the maximum 21% in the Meridian district. In Whatcom County, the wealth of the district, expressed as property value/pupil, may not correlate well with the ability of the district to pay its way. Of the four districts, only Ferndale had revenues per pupil in excess of its expenditure per pupil for 1974-75 (see Table VII-55). VII-60 Arthur D Little, Inc. L INE 5 3 LYNDEN .504 BIRCH BAY FERNDALE 502 CHE PT MERIDIAN C) FERNDALE 505 r%A C) \-A 71 LUMMI BAY BELLINGHAM 0 BELLINGHAM 501 0 2 mi kmA SOURCES: NORTH State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction, "Boundaries of the 303 School Districts in Exis- tence on October 15, 1976". B A 0 FIGURE VII-6 SCHOOL DISTRICTS: CHERRY POINT VII-61 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-49 SCHOOL DISTRICT HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - WHATCOM COUNTY Percent Total Percent Annual Historical Enrollment (October 1) (111-12) Change Change ACTIVITY ZONE/ 197T______TgR 19/3 1974 1975 1976 1971-76 (Exponential) SCHOOL DISTRICT WIATCOM COUNTY Bellingham 501 9028 8694 8684 8554 8657 8673 -3.9 -0.8 Ferndale 502 3138 3215 3285 3362 3571 3695 +17.8 +3.3 Meridian 505 1135 1160 1137 1197 1208 1183 +4.2 +0.4 Blaine 503 1185 1107 1083 1130 1122 1168 -1.4 -0.3 Source:State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-50 CURRENT ENROLLMENT AND AVERAGE DAILY ATTENDANCE WHATCOM COUNTY Average 1976 Daily Current Enrollment Total Attendance ACTIVITY ZONE/ (October, 1976) (K-12) 1975-76 SCHOOL DISTRICT WHATCOM COUNTY Bellingham 501 3844 2013 2816 8673 8057 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Ferndale 502 1787 874 1034 3695 3293 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Meridian 505 434 376 373 1183 1114 (K-4) (5-8) (9@12) Blaine 503 402 368. 398 1168 1043 (K-4) (5-8) (9-12) Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-62 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-51 SCHOOL DISTRICT EXISTING CAPACITY WHATCOM COUNTY Sa ti s f ac tory Exi sting School District Capacity Remaini'ng ACTIVITY ZONE/ Capacity Absolute Number of Temporary Facilities SCHOOL DISTRICT 1976 Pupils Percentage (1975-76 Inventory) WHATCOM COUNTY Bellingham 501 7941 -732 -8.4 9 portable class rooms 6960 sf Ferndale 502 3314 -381 -10.3 Meridian 505 1074 -109 -9.2 Blaine 505 1166 -2 -O'.A7 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction. Ilk TABLE VII-52 SCHOOL DISTRICT CERTIFICATED STAFF RATIOS WHATCOM COUNTY Teachers Other" Jr. Jr. ACTI:VITY ZONE/ High High Middle Elem. High High Middle Elem. SCHOOL DISTRICT School School School School School School School SclTool WHA-rcom COUNTY/ CHERRY PT. Bellingham 501 41.08 - 43.95 43.12 7.36 - 7.15 4.59 Ferndale 502 41.63 - 40.35 42.69 7.84 - 5.34 5.34 Meridian 505 Same as Sequim Blaine 503 Same as Sequim '@-FTE. = Full Time Equivalent *Other = School Administrators, Supervisors, and Support Services SOURCE: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction VII-63 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-53 TAXABLE PROPERTY - MARKET VALUE - WHATCOM COUNTY Taxable Property Total Market Value ($ Thousands) ACTIVITY ZONE/ ' A% A% SCHOOL DISTRICT 1974 1975 1974-75 1976 1975-76 WHATCOM COUNTY Cherry Point/ .2 738,942.5 +44.5 797,599.5 -+7.9 Bellingham 344 511,358 Ferndale 502 302,455.2 434,699.6 +43.7 461,399.6 +6.1 Meridian 505 37,944.0 53,693.8 +41.5 64,829.0 +20.8 Blaine 503 270,733.4 40+2,316.3 +48.6 423,795.8 +5.4 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-54 ASSESSED VALUE - WRATCOM COUNTY 'Indicated Ratios* Taxable Property ACTIVITY ZONE/ (Assessed Value/Market Value Assessed Valuation ($ Thousands) SCHOOL DISTRICT 1973 1974 1975 1974 1975 1-9 7 6 WHATCOM COUNTY 37.7 56.5 57.1 Bellingham 501 192,781.7 417,502.5 455,429.3 Ferndale 502 114,025.6 245,605.3 263,459.2 Meridian 506 14,304.9 30,325 ..7 37,017.3 Blaine 503 102,066.5 227,308.7 241.987.4 *Weiyhted ratio including components for real and personal property Source: State of Washington, Department of Revenue. VII-64 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-55 SCHOOL DISTRICT REVENUE AND COST - WHATCOM COUNTY SOURCES OF REVENUE - 1974-75 REVENUE VS COST (% of total) 1974-75 Market Net County Value Revenue Expendi- Cost ACTIVITY ZONE/ Local Admin. State Federal per per ture pet- per SCHOOL DISTRICT Taxes Funds Funds Funds Other* Pupil Pupil Pupil** LR21* WHATCOM COUNTY Bellingham 501 33.51 4.51 47.63 6.86 7.49 48.808 1391 1408 1177 Ferndale 502 43.67 4.73 39.24 7.06 5.3 73,053 1374 1349 1147 Meridian 505 25.63 5.65 55.75 7.61 5.36 25,335 1033 1103 931 Blaine 58.93 4.33 25.79 6.42 4.53 201,158 1484 1659 1567 Source: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction *Other=Local non-tax revenue, non-revenue receipts, and payment from districts.. **See text for explanation of difference between expenditure and net dost. VII-65 Arthur D Littk Inc The poorest district, Meridian, had a deficit of $70 per pupil between revenues and expenditures, but Blaine, the wealthiest district in terms of property value/pupil, had a deficit of $175/pupil between revenues and expenditures. This is due to the fact that some revenues are not re- turned to the district in direct proportion to the taxes collected. For the 1976 school year between 46% (Blaine) and 58% (Bellingham) of property taxes collected for school operations were through the local special levy. All four districts approved their 1976 special levy appropriations in the first election in 1975. In spite of the fact that bonded indebtedness has increased markedly in all of the four districts through the passage of recent bond issues, three of the four have remaining excess bonding capacities over $7 million, owing to their high value of real property. Meridian has an excess bond- ing capacity 10 times less since the value of its taxable property is an order of magnitude less than that of the other districts; it has already committed nearly half of its total bonding capacity (see Table VII-56). The proportion of total operations and maintenance funds derived from each revenue source is similar in all four districts with respect to the proportion derived from county administrative funds (4-6%) and federal grants (6-8%), but differs with respect to the most significant sources local taxes and state funds (see Table VII-57). The relative importance of these two sources was directly related to the wealth of the district (Mountain View/pupil) as Meridian, the poorest of the four, received 26% from local taxes and 56% from state assistance, and in Blaine, the wealthiest district, these proportions were roughly reversed. Ferndale and Bellingham were intermediate between these two extremes. (2) Water Supply. The source of Ferndale's drinking water is the Nooksack River. The City of Ferndale purchases industrial quality water from the Whatcom County PUD and filters this for use as drinking water. The capacity of Ferndale's filtration plant, which was completed in 1974, is 4 MGD -- more than adequate for the city for at least the next five years. The City of Ferndale serves its own city limits and a small number of people outside the city, a total population of about 3580. In addition, Ferndale sells some water wholesale outside the city limits to suburban water associations. There are no individual wells in use in this area. Ferndale received some federal (HUD) funds and about 40% state "Referendum 27" grant money to cover 40% of the $1.5 million contruction costs of its water filtration plant. Because this plant was partially financed with Referendum 27 funds, Ferndale must be a regional supplier. Although the city is obligated to supply water to developments, communities, IWO or individuals outside the city limits if economically feasible, Ferndale Is not as yet a regional supplier. The source of Blaine's drinking water supply is a system of eight wells, with a total capacity of 4.3 MGD. Because some of the series of Ift eight wells were recently constructed with Referendum 27 monies, Blaine W is required to serve as a regional supplier. Blaine presently supplies .VII-66 Arthur D Little Inc. TABLE VII-56 SCHOOL DISTRICT BONDING STATUS - WHATCOM COUNTY Bonded Debt ACTIVITY ZONE/ 7/1/76 Amount Last Date SCHOOL DISTRICT Millions) Bond Issue Passed 14HATCOM COUNTY/ CHERRY POINT Bellingham 501 7.745 4.200 511176 Ferndale 502 4.862 3.893 1974 Meridian 505 .719 .600 1973 Blaine 503 .644 .510 1974 SOURCE: State of Washington, Superintendent of Public Instruction TABLE VII-57 SCHOOL DISTRICT TAX RATES - WHATCOM COUNTY ACTIVITY ZONE/ TAX RATES-1976 Collections SCHOOL DISTRICT ($/1000 of assessed Valuation) State Bond- Special Levy Retirement Levy(Local) WHATCOM COUNfY CHERRY POINT Bellingham 501 6.306 1.100 8.712 Ferndale 502 6.306 2.460 5.418 Meridian 505 6.306 2.448 6.577 Blaine 503 6.306 0.330 6.577 SOURCE: Tax Assessor's Office/Clallam, Skagit, Whatcom Counties VII-67 Arthur D Little, Inc water to Whatcom County Water District No. 8, and sells water wholesale to small water associations in an unincorporated area near Blaine. The service population of Blaine is about 2400; the total served from the eight wells is about 420b with as many as 8000 served during the summer tourist season. Average production from these wells is about 0.8 MGD; peak production reaches 2.5 MGD. Residential consumption rates average about 160 gallons per capita per day. Because the wells were recently constructed, there are currently no capacity problems or plans to expand; no water quality problems are apparent in the water supply. In the unincorporated areas of Whatcom County between Blaine and Ferndale, water supply is provided by individual wells for farms and tracts of about five acres. However, many water associations are found in this region because of the presence of dairy farms which must have an improved water supply. Waterlassociations typically buy improved water from the nearer town of Blaine or Ferndale, or from Water District No. 8 which Blaine supplies. Some associations have their own sources of supply such as streams, diversions, lakes, or wells. Domestic water supply for the City of Bellingham is provided by the city as a municipal service. The city presently serves all of the unin- corporated population (42,100 persons; 10,400 customers) as well as about 8000 persons (3500 customers) outside its incorporated limits. Average per capita daily water consumption is 190 gallons -- a system total of 9.5 MGD. This drops to about 125 G/PD during the winter months when outside watering is not necessary. The municipal supply comes from Lake Whatcom and a diversion dam on the middle fork of the Nooksack River. The city has water rights to the top four feet of the lake and also diverts the Nooksack River water into the lake to simplify distribution. All of Bellingham, including residen- tial, commercial, and industrial development within the city, purchases water from this source. The largest single user is Georgia Pacific, which consumes an average of 53 MGD. Georgia Pacific diverts its supply be- fore it has been run through the city filtration plant, which ensures that the drinking water supply will meet public health standards. The nominal capacity of the filtration plant is 24 MGD. Thus, at present the plant is operating at 40% of capacity. The engineer for the Public,Works Department of Bellingham, John Wiseman, indicated that the main problem for this service district is peak demand in summer coupled with low flow. The 10-year low available flow in summer and fall months was 54 MGD, while the 10-year peak demand which occurred in August 1971 was 24 MGD, excluding the Georgia Pacific requirement (20-year peak in August 1959 was 26 MGD). The peak including the pulp mill is thus 77-79 MGD. Peak demand, coupled with low inflow, gradually depletes Lake Whatcom which has strong volume in the top four feet of 6.5 billion gallons. In 1971, the lake was depleted and did not return to its normal level until January 1972. VII-68 Arthur D Little, Inc. A recent study completed for the city projected a 1990 average daily requirement of 12.6 MGD (excluding Georgia Pacific) and an increase in demand b- the pulp mill to a total of 55 MGD. The implication of the study was that by 1990 a supplemental source might be needed, particularly in low flow, peak demand periods. At the present time, water supply conservation in dry years or during low flow periods is voluntary only. Most single family residences are not mete-red; multiple residences are on a single meter, and commercial and industrial establishments are individually metered. The city is exploring the possibility of a more extensive metering system. (3) Wastewater. The City of Ferndale operates a secondary sewage treatment plant which discharges into the Nooksack River. While this plant is apparently serving a greater number of people than its design population (see Table VII-58), John Glenn, of the Department of Ecology, states that the Ferndale plant may or may not be put on a grant list for expansion or upgrading. The plant's average flow is only about 0.3 MGD, and apparently is experiencing no problems. Performance is improving recently with a new operator, and the plant is apparently in compliance with its NPDES permit (see Table VII-59). In response to a problem of failing septic tank drain fields, the unincorporated community of Birch Bay has begun operation of a secondary treatment plant with discharge off Point Whitehorn. This plant also serves the Birch Bay State Park and the Blaine Air Force Base. Because connections are still being completed and the plant is just beginning operations, this secondary treatment plant has not yet demonstrated compliance with its NPDES permit. The Lummi Indian Reservation, south of Water District No. 8 and currently on septic tanks, has been declared a public health emergency area. A facilities plan has been completed for construction of a new secondary sewage treatment facility. In addition, a non-Indian housing development built on leased land within the Reservation, called Sandy Shores, has formed a water district. The subdivision requires sewage treatment, and it is not clear whether this will comprise an independent plant or system or connection to the future Reservation facility. In general, apart from Water District No. 8, the unincorporated areas of Whatcom County between Blaine and Ferndale use septic tanks for sewage disposal. In the Ferndale vicinity, the residences outside the city limits may receive city sewer service within the next 10 years, as Ferndale has corresponding annexation plans. These plans for extension of city services include all parts of the city's periphery with emphasis on the east and north. The City of Blaine operates the primary treatment plant which dis- charges into the mouth of Drayton Harbor. The design flow of the plant is 0.25 MGD; however, its average daily flow currently exceeds its design capacity due to infiltration and inflow. The plant was built in 1964, and is currently in compliance with its NPDES permit. VII-69 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-58 WASTEWATER DISPOSAL - SERVICE POPULATION: CHERRY POINT/FERNDALE Existing Wastewater Generation Rates Municipal Unsewered a Ow b Sewered c Flow Design Basin Plant ?opulation d) Population cd) Population Nooksack Blaine AFB ND .012 ND ND 250 Lummi Indian NA NA NA NA 5,000 Reservation Community of NA NA NA NA 5,000 Birch Bay (Water District #8) Ferndale 73 .30 2,927 102.5 2,730 Birch Bay ND ND ND ND ND State Park a 1975 estimate, within incorporated limits b Average daily flow for 1975 in million gallons per day c 1975 estimate d Gallons per capita per day NA = notavailable; ND no data Source: Nooksack Basin Water Quality Management Plan VII-70 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-59 WASTEWATER DISPOSAL - DISCHARGE LOCATION: CHERRY POINT/FERNDALE NPDES Permit Existing Status Municipal Level of Discharge Have In District Upgrading Basin Plant Treatment Location Permit Compliance or Expansion Plans Nooksack Blaine AFB Secondary Creek to No NA Will connect to Water Birch Bay District No. 8 system due to insufficient dilution of effluent in creek Lummi Septic Ground No NA A DSHS "Public Health Indian Tank Emergency Area". New Reservation sewage facility needed. Grant funds and 201 Plan in process Community Septic Ground Yes NA New secondary treatment of Birch Tank New future (for and collection system being Bay (Water plant: future constructed to correct District Straits plant) failing septic tank drain No. 8) fields Ferndale Secondary Nooksack Yes Apparently WQMP states that septic River tank drain fields should be included in service area since they are failing. These areas to immediate east and west of town are declared DSHS "Health Hazard" areas Birch Bay Secondary Off No NA NO State Park Whitehorn Point DSHS = Department of Social and Health Services WQMP = Water Quality Management Plan NA = not available NO = no data Source: Nooksack Basin Water Quality Management Plan VII-71 Arthur D Little, Inc. A facilities plan has just been completed stipulating the con- struction of a new plant to eliminate the infiltration inflow problem. The new plant will be located at a different site from the present facility with a different outfall, but its capacity will still not exceed 1 MGD. Plans and specifications will be completed at the end of the summer of 1977, and the new plant will be operating in 1979. The Blaine treatment plant will be serving any population within their drainage area; this goes beyond the city limits to the border of Water District No. 8 to the south but does not extend far to the east. Wastewater disposal is handled by the City of Bellingham as a munici- pal service. The city currently serves a total population of 39,600, of which 2200 are outside the corporate limits of Bellingham (mostly within the Lake Whatcom sewer district). Thus, approximately 4700 persons within Bellingham are not served by sewer but rely on septic tanks. The city's plant offers primary treatment only and, thus, by definition cannot be meeting NPDES and federal clean water quality standards since these require secondary treatment. The plant, which has a design flow of 18 MGD and a peak hydraulic flow (including storm water) of 55 MGD empties into Puget Sound. Current wastewater volume in the district averages 4 MGD in summer and 10 MGD in winter, including all domestic, commercial, and industrial connections. The only large industrial facility in Bellingham not served by this plant is the Georgia Pacific pulp mill which operates its own sewage treatment facility. Wastewater volume alone thus averages 101 gallons per capita day. The engineer for the Bellingham Public Works Department, John Wiseman, indicated that the combined sewer and storm inflow occasionally exceeds the 55 MGD design hydraulic flow and overflows into Puget Sound. The city is operating under a discharge permit which specifies that a facilities plan be prepared which would all ow upgrading to secondary wastewater treatment. Mr. Wiseman indicated that the facilities plan would not be completed prior to the end of 1978, and that possible upgrading would be dependent on the availability of grant funding. Since the district dis- charges to salt water, Mr. Wiseman felt that grant funding would probably not be made available. The hydraulic design flow of the secondary treat- ment plant would be 43 MGD, but the design load for the plant cannot be specified at this time, owing to uncertainties about the degree of future population growth in Bellingham which would be eligible for grant funding. (4) Solid Waste. The Cherry Point vicinity has four solid waste disposal sites. The Lummi open dump, located about five miles away on the Lummi Indian Reservation, has been closed. The Ferndale site, just outside of the city, is an open dump and is in use, as is the thermal reduction incinerator located about two miles southeast of Ferndale. There is also an actively used open dump about 10 miles north of Cherry Point on Birch Bay. No information was available regarding the expected life times, service areas, or leachate problems of these sites in the 303(e) reports. However, it is to be noted that all are open dumps and not sanitary landfills. VII-72 Arthur D Little, Inc The Whatcom County Solid Waste Management Plan (1973) refers to the phasing out of small open dumps and replacement with larger central san- itary landfills in the near future. This change would replace self- hauling with a county collection system and user fees; waste handling capacity would be increased while environmental hazards could be reduced. Solid waste disposal for Bellingham is provided as a municipal ser- vice by the city, which contracts collection to private companies and charges a fixed price per can per household, renegotiated each year. The garbage i's transported to a site on Highway 540, five miles north of Bellingham, where a thermal reduction plant is operated by Wilder Con- struction Company. "Moose" Zurline, solid waste director for the firm, stated that the facility now incinerates 120 tons per day, operating nine-and--one-half hours per day, five days per week. This volume is 20% over the design capacity of the plant, which is supposed to run 100 tons per eight-hour day, on a five-day per week schedule. Mr. Zurline indicated that capacity could be increased up to a point by extra hours of operation, and at present the plant is meeting the air emissions standards of the Northwest: Air Pollution Control Authority and the U.S. EPA. The present service population of the Wilder plant is 43,000 (12,000 homes), which includes all of Bellingham and a few hundred unincorporated county dwellings. The plant could reportedly accommodate a 10% increase in service population before having to add new capacity. The plant em- ploys modular incinerators; each incinerator increases the effective ser- vice population by 5000. Currently, the county is exploring a proposal to provide funding to increase the plant's capacity to 160 tons per day. Presumably most of this incremental capacity would be reserved for the unincorporated areas and would serve either county growth or existing residences now forced to use sanitary landfills or dumps. (5) Transportation. Ferndale is located about half a mile west of Interstate 5. No state highways traverse this area; the main arteries in the Ferndale vicinity are county or city roads, including the Mountain View road and Blaine-Ferndale road. Birch Bay, an unincorporated community to the northwest of Ferndale, is located about four miles from Interstate 5. While no state highways run near Birch Bay, major local roads are the Blaine-Ferndale road which becomes the Birch Bay road nearer to Birch Bay, the Birch Bay-Lynden road, the Drayton road, and Birch Point road, which goes along the coast and out to Birch Point. A local road also parallels the Burlington-Northern Railroad just southwest of Interstate 5. These are all medium-duty rural roads. Interstate 5 goes through the Town of Blaine in the extreme north- west of Whatcom County; the Burlington-Northern Railroad and the local road paralleling it skirts the western edge of town along the waterfront. The main local road into Blaine is the Blaine-Lynden road southwest of town. For a discussion of problems of capacity and safety occurring in rural road networks such as these, see the transportation section of infrastructure under issues/approach. According to L. Davis, long-range program engineer of the State Highway Department, some needs for road expansion may exist in VII-73 Arthur D Little, Inc. the Ferndale area (see Table VII-60), but there are no expansion plans because no monies are available. The money presently available for this part of Whatcom County is sufficient only for resurfacing and maintenance of existing local roads. C. Terrestrial Biology The area planned for continuing intensive industrial use in the vicinity of Cherry Point is in the ownership of three oil companies as well as Intalco Aluminum and several other large holdings. At the extreme north and west is the Atlantic Richfield property and vicinity, an area of approximately 2400 acres of which 400 are now intensively used by Atlantic Richfield. The remainder is a mosaic of approximately 50% woodland (1000 acres) and 1000 acres of cleared and grazing land. The latter includes the proposed refinery site owned by Standard Oil. Much of the vegetation of the wooded parts of this property.is a deciduous woodland representing a relatively early seral stage including many of the character- istics species listed.in the species list table for broad leaf forest and shrubland habitats. In some parts, the larger trees, including alder and big leaf maple, are quite mature indicating an age for the strand of more than 50 years. Some of the open areas are grazed and thereby maintained in the earliest successional stage as disturbed pasture grassland. Other of the grazed areas have been lying fallow for several years and are currently being invaded by alder and some shrub species. The Standard Oil coastal parcel suitable for terminal access is presently a large, open field with a few scattered young alders and one or two quite young western red cedars. The high bluff overlooking the shore harbors a mixed deciduous tree and shrub community including some weedy species such as gorse and a high proportion of the native baldhip rose. To the south, the area between the Intalco Aluminum plant and the' northern boundary of the Mobil property at Unick Road is largely grazing land with a few scattered woodland areas serving as wind breaks. These woods are roughly in the same successional stage as those on the Standard property to the north. Notable species include mature adler, some red cedars, and paper birch which is at the southern end of its range in this area and, therfore, rare in western Washington. In general, the pasture lands in this section are overgrown and in the process of conversion to wood lots. The wind breaks contain young, mostly deciduous forest species. Further south, the undeveloped portion of the Mobil Oil refinery site is approximately 300 acres in size, enclosed largely by the rectangle formed by Kickerville, Slater, and Lake Terrell roads. Of this, about 80% (250 acres) is wooded and the remaining 20% is pasture land. The Mobil property between Kickerville Road and the shore includes their present terminal access area and pier. South of the pier line there lies approximately 70 acres of which 40% is wooded and the remainder is grazing land; roughly one-fourth of the wooded acreage is coastal bluff. North of the pier, Mobil's property comprises about 55 acres of wooded land and 35 acres of cleared land between Creamer and Unick roads, to the south and north and enclosed by the shore and Kickerville Road. The vegetation of these zones is similar to that described for the other oil company properties. Arthur D Little, Inc. VII-74 TABLE VII-60 HIGHWAY VOLUME/CAPACITY RATIOS - WHATCOM COUNTY Volume/Capacity Ratio Standard Road No. Control Section Maximum Mean D viation Whatcom Coun 1-5 3702 .44 .37 .05 3703 .22 .15 .05 504 3741 .26 .23 .02 543 3735 .16 .12 .04 VII-75 Arthur D Little, Inc. d. Air Quality As there is little population within 10 miles, air quality in the vicinity of Ferndale is principally determined by the existing industry. Aluminum production at Intalco on Cherry Point and the Atlantic Richfield and Mobil refineries all result in large sulfur oxide emissions (see Table VII-61). The refineries also emit substantial amounts of hydrocarbons. Ventilating winds in the area are relatively good, and basin poten- tial for pollutant retention and oxidant formation is moderate to low. The large port and urban community of Bellingham lie 15 miles to the east. Oxidant is monitored in Bellingham; no violations of federal standards have yet been observed (see Table VII-62). Under common meteorologic con- ditions, that community lies within the same air basin as Cherry Point, but the role of existing hydrocarbon sources on Cherry Point in causing oxidant at Bellingham is not known. e. Water Quality/Marine Biology The Cherry Point/Ferndale site is in the Nooksack River basin (see Table VII-63). The dominant beneficial uses in this one segment are navigation, commercial shipping, sport and commercial fishing, and recrea- tional boating, with somescenic viewing. The coastal segment near Fern- dale and Cherry Point has an aquatic resources inventory similar to that of March Point and Anacortes. In addition to shellfish culture, there are salmon, commercial bottom-fish, and herring fisheries. There is also a major waterfowl area in the immediate vicinity. Three major industries discharge into the segment's waters. Intalco, an aluminum smelter, discharges 12.5 MGD of smelter and sanitary wastes. Smelter wastes receive chemical treatment, while sanitary wastes receive oxidation and chlorination. Atlantic Richfield discharges 10.8 MGD of refinery process waters, tanker ballast waste, and storm runoff, which receive secondary treatment with pH and phenol control. Mobil discharges 2.6 MGD of secondary effluent, also with pH and phenol control. Blaine Air Force Base and Birch Bay State Park discharge small amounts of municipal effluent into vicinity waters. Blaine Air Force Base's effluent receives secondary treatment. Although no water quality data exist for this segment of Nooksack Basin, the waters are classified Class A and are considered effluent limited. Some 1974 data from the Birch Bay area indicate waters of excellent quality with no significant abnormalities. These waters are ranked sixth of eight segments in the Nooksack River basin for problem severity. There is one public underwater recreation area to be protected from oil-related pollu- tion; there are no other water quality issues apparent for this sgement. Although Cherry Point itself is not exceptional, the region surround- ing Cherry Point is rich. The relatively undisturbed complex of islands, straits, bays, and estuaries supports a large, diverse assemblage of plant and animal species. Bellingham, Birch, Lummi, and Semiahoo bays provide VII-76 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-61 ANNUAL EMISSIONS FROM EXISTING SOURCES AT CHERRY POINT Source Particulate 50 2 140 HC CO Atlantic Richfield (ARCO) 130 4630 1420 2250 Mobil Oil Corp. 280 6180 950 2080 Intalco Aluminum Corp. 890 4210 470 890 90,350 Source: Teknekron, 1976. TABLE VII-62 AIR MONITORING DATA - BELLINGHAM OZONE Annual Max. Hour Hours > 8 pphm 1974 8 0 1975 7 0 (5 months) 1976 7 0 SULFUR DIOXIDE Annual maximum # hours Annual maximum Annual hourly average > 40 pphm 24 hour average Average 1974 14 0 4 1 1975 8 0 4 1 1976 10 0 4 1 Source: State of Washington, Department of Ecology. VII-77 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-63 WATER QUALITY - CHERRY POINT NOOKSACK RIVER BASIN - WATER RESOURCE INVENTORY AREA I Existing Water Quality Segment 07 - Cherry Point: Class A, effluent limited. 1974 unofficial data from Birch Bay indicate waters of "excellent quality with no significant abnormalities." Ranked 6th of 8 in problem severity. Issues None apparent Beneficial Uses .Navigation Commercial shipping Sport and commercial fishing Boating Scenic viewing Shellfish culture Fish migration Food fish reproduction and harvesting Aquatic Resources Pacific Oyster Culture Intertidal hardshell clams Dungeness crabs Scallops Salmon fishery Commercial bottom-fishery Herring spawning and commercial fishery Major waterfront area Public Recreation/Protected Areas Birch Bay underwater recreation area Discharges Within 10 Miles of Marine Terminal Discharger Quantity (mqd) Effluent Intalco 12.5 Smelter wastes, sanitary wastes Mobil 2.6 pH and phenol control; secondary treatment Arco 10.8 Process wastes, ballast and storm runoff (secondary treatment) Blaine Air Force Base 0.012 Secondary effluent Birch Bay State Park -no data- Secondary effluent Sources: Department of Ecology, 303(e) Nooksack Basin; Department of Natural Resources, Marine Atlas, 1974; Department of Ecology, Fauna Survey,1'11S . VII-78 Arthur D Little, Inc habitat for many seabirds, including loons, grebes, cormorants, gulls, terns, alcids, and seaducks. Further south, the San Juan Islands provide nesting habitat for numerous birds, including cormorants, puffins, guillemots, oystercatchers, and glaucous winged gulls. The islands also support numerous winter residents and provide resting areas for migratory species. These include rock sandpipers, black turnstones, and surfbirds. Harbor seals are the most significant species of aquatic mammals on the islands. VII-79 Arthur D Little, Inc. B. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS The sudden availability of large quantities of Alaskan crude oil gives rise to the several petroleum development scenarios described in Chapter IV. One or more of the scenarios involve each of the three petroleum industry activity zones and may potentially significantly affect the environment at those locations. The environmental analysis in the following section uses the preceding environmental setting description as a basis. The components of each scenario that serve as generators or sources of environmental impact are described in Chapter VI. Although a significant petroleum development involves a broad spectrum of activites, the principal potential for environmental impact tends to focus on several critical areas; the impact potential on other areas is far less likely to be significant. This includes many potential environmental issues as described in Chapter V which, because of the nature of the activity and most importantly because of the characteristics of the existing environ- ment, will not be a major concern for the petroleum development scenarios addressed in this study. As will be seen, the principal potential impact on the marine ter- minal sites themselves will come from scenarios with a large crude oil throughput. Maintenance of the present petroleum activity offers practically no incremental impact. The environmental factors most likely to be affected are only the most sensitive element of infrastructure: schools and the hourly state standard for sulfur dioxide in air quality. Because current services for infrastructure and conditions of both terrain and meteorology for air quality differ among the three zones, the relative sensitivity to large crude oil throughput varies as well. Oil pollution is not a major concern for the marine terminal itself. The impact of tanker transit is significant and is addressed separately under transportation corridors in Chapter VIII. Generally, the amount of C oil released by operational spillage in the marine terminal vicinity is smaller than the estimate of existing oil discharge from other sources such as industrial processes, urban runoff, or other marine activities. The aggregate level of oil pollution appears to be below the threshold level for chronic effects. The land required for onshore facilities and for new residential areas to serve induced growth is significant by comparison with the extent of present urbanization, but in every case there appears to be sufficient acreage of vacant, cleared, or second-growth land available, and few conflicts with existing land use and insignificant terrestrial biological impacts are expected. Again, the magnitude of impact depends upon the level of activity and the complex of land use trends in each petroleum activity zone. 1. Port Angeles-Clallam County Among the petroleum development scenarios, only the Northern Tier Pipeline project will bring activity to Port Angeles. This study examines two cases: Scenario II-A (crude oil-.throughput of 400,000 B/D to 800,000 B/D), a transshipment project alone using Port Angeles at the marine terminal for VII-80 Arthur D Little, Inc a pipeline delivering crude to the central United States, and Scenario II-B (crude oil throughput of 690,000 B/D to 1,250,000 B/D), a transshipment pipeline with Puget Spur Pipeline allowing a marine terminal at Port Angeles to serve as a superport for receiving the crude oil supply required by regional refineries. It should be noted that the other scenarios which do not require vessel calls at Port Angeles in fact entail significant vessel movements through the Strait of Juan de Fuca past Port Angeles. Some of these vessels will require the Puget Sound pilot service which is based on Ediz Hook but otherwise will have no economic or social impact on the city. There are minor air quality impacts from tanker transit and potentially signficiant oil spill impacts on water quality and marine biology that may involve the Port Angeles ha'rbor and adjoining coast line. Those impacts are discussed in Chapter VIII. a. Land Use (1) Direct Impacts. The major onshore facilities required for oil transshipment at Port Angeles (exclusive of the pipeline) are pumpage facilities to assist offloading and surge/storage. Port Angeles is in- volved only in Scenarios II-A and II-B, which describe the Northern Tier Pipeline originating at Port Angeles, with and without the Puget Spur Pipeline. The land requirement is a function of oil throughput as shown in Table VII-64, which indicates the range of land acreage required as determined by possible throughput phasing. (See Chapter VI.) In the minimum scenario (II-A, 1980), 90 acres would be required for these facilities (7 tanks @ 10 acres/tank + 20 acres for access roads' pump stations,, etc.). In the maximum scenario (II-B, 1990), 220 acres would be required (20 tanks + 20 acres). Table VII-65 indicates the availability of land at the four possible subalternative sites for these onshore facilities, as developed under Chapter VII-A. Comparison between Tables VII-64 and VII-65 shows that all four sub- alternatives provide adequate land for the onshore facilities in the mini- mum scenario (II-A, 1980). Development for larger throughput will require careful Siting and possibly tankage at separated locations. Ediz Hook, the main proposal for the Northern Tier terminus at Port Angeles, has the least land available on the Hook itself, so that in Scenario II-A after 1980 and in all of II-B the remaining tankage would have to be constructed further inland, probably on the bluff west of the city and north of the airport. This arrangement would probably demand a larger pump station on the Hook. The Morse Creek subalternative site probably does not provide enough suitable flat land for Scenario II-B (Northern Tier with the Puget Spur). Freshwater Bay (Angeles Point) is the only subalternative site with plenty of contiguous land for the maximum scenario (II-B, 1990). Since there is no zoning presently in effect in Clallam County, the land use impacts of the land conversion for surge/storage and pump station construction can only be evaluated in the light of the impacts on existing land uses: at the proposed subalternative sites and, to some degree, on local land use planning concepts. Arthur D Little, Inc VII-81 TABLE VII-64 INDUSTRIAL SITE LAND CONSUMPTION ONSHORE FACILITIESa PORT ANGELES Crude Throughput New Tankage b (1000 B/D) New Tankage Land Required Scenario 1980 1985 1990 Required (Acres) I. Regional Supply A. Unrestricted Fleet 0 0 0 no B. Restricted Fleet 0 0 0 no II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 400 800 800 yes 90 - 150 B. RegioW Supply by Puget 690 1090 1250 yes 140 - 220 Spur Pipeline III. Transshipmentat Cherry Point 0 0 0 no IV. Regional Supply Trans Mountain 0 0 0 no Pipeline (a) Onshore facilities include surge/storage (tank farm), pump stations and access roads (b) Assumptions: 625,000 bbl/tank Ratio tank.capacity: throughput = 10:1 10 acres/tank + 200 acres for access roads, pump stations etc. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-82 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-65 .SUITABLE ACREAGE AVAILABLE FOR ONSHORE FACILITIES (Port Angeles Subalternatives) Subalternative Acres Available Present Land Use Freshwater Bay 350 Agriculture (intensive) Ediz Hook* 100 Fallow Green Point (Morse Creek) 120 Fallow grassland Green Point (Siebert Creek) 175 Woodland *Main proposal for Port Angeles. Others are subalternatives to Ediz Hook which were rejected by the Northern Tier Pipeline Company. The 100 acres includes the lagoon and vacant land at the base of the Hook. VII-83 Arthur D Little, Inc. The tank farm at the Ediz Hook location would be compatible with the adjoining use which is the tank storage for the adjacent Crown Zellerbach plant, but might conflict with plans of Crown Zellerbach itself to use this vacant land. Land use on the bluff near the airport is mixed agri- culture and privately-held timberland. The property would have to be purchased from the present owner, and its use as a tank farm site could run into significant opposition from the owners of adjoining lands because of the high visual impact of oil tanks on these non-industrial lands. Both the Morse Creek and Green Point subalternatives suffer from the low availability of suitable flat land, and also may raise land use con- flicts because the predominant vicinity land use is low-density residential. To the degree to which the tanks are visible, they will be viewed as a nuisance, particularly by residents who have paid a premium for the view qualities of a waterfront location or an overlook of the Strait. The Freshwater Bay (Elwha River) site would provide adequate land for the onshore facilities in the maximum scenario, but would result in the loss of agricultural productivity on a small fraction of the remaining agricultural lands within Clallam County (0.3%). However, the total acreage in farms within the county has been steadily declining in recent years as the land undergoes all types of urban conversion or is sold and kept non-productive by speculators in the hope of future urban conversion. In this light, further encroachment on prime, flat crop land, such as by a tank farm, should be viewed with the same caution as with any development. The greatest potential land use conflicts arising from a Northern Tier or other oil proposal at Port Angeles have already been identified by the local citizenry as conflicts for the use of Port Angeles harbor itself. Both the City of Port Angeles and Clallam County have adopted ordinances banning an oil port at Port Angeles or elsewhere within Clallam County. The several conflicts associated with oil tanker use of the harbor in- clude interference with the log booming operation of ITT Rayonier and Peninsula Plywood, with small boat rental, with fishing charter boat activities, and with activities of the Port Angeles Pilot Station. With about 300 employees, ITT Rayonier is one of the chief Port Angeles employers. The company claims that if oil tanker interference with its log booming inside Ediz Hook forced it to move to a dry land- based booming system, this would cost them an additional $1 million per year and could price them out of existence. Since ITT Rayonier is important to Port Angeles, both as an employer and as a part of the tax base, the local citizens would view the departure of this company as an extreme hardship; its replacement by an oil port would provide for less permanent local employment. The contribution to the tax base would be high, in proportion'to the inventory tax on the oil, but still less than the Rayonier facility. Tourism is the most important industry to Port Angeles in terms of providing local employment. Therefore, any use of the only deepwater, sheltered harbor along the Strait which has an obvious direct adverse effect on tourism such as the movement or berthing of small boats and charter boats is viewed as a serious economic threat by the population of Arthur D Little, Inc. 4 VII-84 the area. Similarly, the navigation pilots based within Port Angeles harbor serve a vital function with respect to navigation safety in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the movement of goods to and from the Seattle/ Tacoma port areas. Port Angeles harbor is the most logical place for the deployment of their boats so that to the degree to which the movement and berthing of oil tankers hinders the pilots' activities, their concerns appear justified. Navigation safety for multi-based ship traffic between the Strait and the inner Sound would have priority over the movement of a single commodity. Overall, an oil port at Port Angeles harbor would consume most of the remaining waterfront of Ediz Hook and would foreclose the future option to reserve this waterfront for other port-related activities which are more labor-intensive. In all, the land requirements of the onshore facilities at Port Angeles represent a 14-23% increase in industrial land use in Clallam County (Scenario II-A) and a 22-34% increase in the total industrial acreage within the county in Scenario II-B. While there is no scarcity of land which could be put to industrial uses within the county, in most locations a large tank farm would constitute a major departure from the present low-density residential and other non-urban uses of these lands. At present, an oil port and all of its associated structures have been enjoined from Clallam County or the incorporated limited of Port Angeles by local legislative mandate. However, action at the state level may override the local bans. The Clallam County Shoreline Master Program designates Port Angeles harbor, including all of Ediz Hook and the bluff, as "urban." An oil ter- minal inside the harbor would be consistent with the urban designation, particularly since the general regulations given within the Clallam Master Program state that "emphasis shall be given to development within already developed areas and particularly to water-dependent industrial and com- mercial uses requiring frontage on navigable waters." The other areas designated in the Clallam. County Shoreline Master Program potentially affected by the subalternative sites for marine ter- minals or onshore facilities in Scenarios II-A and II-B are the Elwha River, designated "conservancy"; Freshwater Bay and shoreline, designated if rural"; the mouth of Morse Creek, designated "rural"; and the shoreline east of Port Angeles, designated "conservancy." In addition, the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent salt waters and the downstream portion of the Elwha River have been designated shorelines of statewide significance. The onshore facilities proposed in the vicinity of Morse Creek will not conflict with master program policies if they bypass the floodplain of the creek or do not intrude within 200 feet of the shoreline. If, however, the tank farm or associated structures or access road impinges on either of these areas, it may violate the intent of the rural designa- tion -- that is for rural areas to "function as a buffer between urban areas, and to restrict intensive development on shorelines presently in an undeveloped state" (Clallam County Shoreline Master Program). The surge/ storage facilities could impinge on conservancy areas in the vicinity of Arthur D Little, Inc. VII-85 the Elwha River or at the mouth of Siebert Creek. In this case, intensive industrial use such as a tank farm appears inconsistent with the stated purpose of the conservancy environment -- that is, "that the preferred uses are nonconsumptive of the physical and biological resources of the area, and are activities and uses of a non-permanent nature which do not substantially degrade the existing character of the areas." In addition, the Elwha River has been designated a shoreline of statewide significance. Policies in this regard which may tend to discourage an intensive indus- trial use of this site if it impinges directly on the Elwha floodplain or riparian zone are the following: (a) "Actions which would convert resources into irreversible uses or detrimentally alter natural conditions characteristic of shorelines of statewide significance shall be-severely limited," (b) "Aesthetic considerations for the general enhancement of the shorelines must be actively promoted when contemplating new development 41 or redevelopment of existing facilities," and (c) "Erosion and sedimenta- tion that would alter the natural function of the water system must be prevented." Also designated as shorelines of statewide significance are the en- tire Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent salt waters north to the Canadian line and lying seaward from the line of extreme low tide (Clallam County Shoreline Master Program). In light of the risk of oil spill damage to this environment due to tanker transport activities, the following additional policies are relevant and tend to restrict or entirely elimi- nate new activities of this type from the environment: (a) Quotation No. (a) above, (b) "The short-term economic gain or convenience of develop- Z ments must be evaluated in their relationship to long term and potentially costly impairments to the natural environment, and (c) "Regulations must be based on the premise of preserving the shorelines for future generations." In summary, the only designated shoreline area where proposed project facilities are clearly in conformance with Shoreline Program and Coastal An- Act land use categories and their associated regulatory policies is in Port Angeles harbor. At the remaining possible subalternative sites, both on- and offshore, conformance needs to be more clearly and specifically proven or negated through the local and state regulatory review process. (2) Indirect Impacts. Scenarios II-A (Northern Tier Pipeline at Port Angeles, no Puget Spur) and II-B (Northern Tier Pipeline at Port Angeles, Puget Spur) are the only two scenarios which will produce popu- lation growth impacts in the Port Angeles/Clallam County activity zone. The size and demographic characteristics of the new population generated by direct and indirect employment are summarized in Tables VII-66 through VII-68. The peak impact (peak construction) year in both Scenarios II-A and II-B is 1979, which would yield population growth increments of 2530 persons in II-B and 2300 persons in II-A (91% of the II-B increase). The maximum case@(II-B) peak will thus yield an increase of 865 households in the area which will produce population and infrastructure impacts. Excluding the direct construction employment group leaves a total of 2110 persons or 760 new households.which will both consume land for new housing and contribute to the local property tax base. VII-86 Arthur D Little Inc ( P I F I F q y W VF TABLE VII-66 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - DIRECT EMPLOYMENT PORT ANGELES Permanent Employment Location of Householdsb increase as Persons Port Port Angeles Sequim % of 1975 Number Per Angeles School Duis- School tounty Pop- Wages Growth of House- House- Total Incor- trict Unin- District Un- ulation Per Scenario Employees Component holds hold Persons porated corporated Incorporated (37,000) Household IA Regional-Unrestricted None IB Regional-Restricted None a IIA Northern Tier 137 0.7 96 4.0 384 48 24 24 +1.04% $27,,87c IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 157 110 440 55 28 27 +1.19 III Transshipment/Cherry Point None IV Regional-Trans Mountain None Construction Peaks IA,18 None IIA 1978 589 0.2d 118 4.0 472 59 30 29 +1.28% $16,956e 1979 466 93 372 47 23 23 +1.01 IIB 1978 603 121 484 61 30 30 +1.31 1979 523 105 420 53 26 26 +1.14 Totals (Permanent + Construction Peaks) IIA 1978 726 214 856 107 54 53 +2.32% 1979 603 189 756 95 47 47 +2.05 JIB 1978 760 231 924 116 58 57 +2.50 1979 680 215 860 108 54 53 +2.33 Footnotes a 70% of permanent direct employment is in-migration b Assumes 50% will locate in incorporated Port Angeles, 25% in the unincorporated area around Port Angeles (Port Angeles School District) and 25% in the Sequim area ( Sequim School District) applies to all Port Angeles employment c $27,187 = $24,400 (Oil industry average salary - Cherry Point plus $2,78B); .27 second wage earners per household x 10,325 (Average Employment Security Act salary - Clallam County) d 20% of construction employees are in-migrants with families e $16,956 = $11,690 - 1975 Construction wages for Clallam County + $5,266 ($10,325 x 0.51 second wage earners per household (Clallam Co.)) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. TABLE VII-67 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT PORT ANGELES Permanent Employment Location of Households Persons per Port Port Angeles Sequim House- Wage Household Angeles School Dis- School hold Earners Growth a Persons average Total Incor- trict Unin- District Un- In- Per Scenario Employees Component Su orted (1976) Households pora%ed corpprated Incorporated come Household IA Regional-Unrestricted 0 --no Direct or Indirect-- IB Regional-Restricted 0 @-no Direct or Indirect-- IIA Northern Tier 295 89 210 2.57 82 41 21 20 $15,538 1.51 IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 335 101 238 93 46 24 23 III Transshipment w/Puget Spur None --no Direct or Indirect-- IV Regional-Trans Mountain None Construction Peaks IIA 1978 1261 378 892 347 174 87 87 1979 1881 564 1331 518 259 130 129 1980 546 164 387 151 75 38 37 < 1981 387 116 274 107 53 27 27 1982 181 54 128 50 25 13 12 IIB 1978 1290 387 913 355 178 89 89 0. 00 1979 2023 607 1432 557 279 139 139 1980 587 176 416 162 81 41 40 1981 444 133 314 122 61 31 30 1982 207 62 147 57 29 14 14 Total Indirect (Permanent + Construction Peaks) IIA 1978 1556 467 1102 429 215 108 107 1979 2176 653 1541 600 300 151 149 1980 841 253 597 233 116 59 57 1981 682 205 484 189 94 38 47 1982 476 143 338 132 66 34 32 IIB 1978 1625 488 1151 448 224 113 112 1979 2358 708 1670 650 325 163 162 1980 922 277 654 255 127 65 63 1981 779 234 552 215 107 55 53 1982 542 163 385 150 75 38 37 Footnotes Assumptions a 30% of industry employment is assumed to be in-migration (see Text for further discussion) b 2.36 persons supported per job ( see Text for further discussion) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. Of TABLE VII-68 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD TOTALS PORT ANGELES PERMANENT DIRECT AND ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (Land Use Impacts) Location of Households Port Port Angeles Sequim Household Angeles Unincorporated Unincorporated Income Persons Total Incor- School School (Weighted Scenario Employees Supporte Households porated District District Average) IIA Northern Tier 1978 1693 1486 525 263 131 131 1979 2313 1925 696 348 174 174 1980 978 981 329 165 82 82 1981 819 868 285 143 71 71 1982 613 722 228 114 57 57 $19,329 JIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 1978 1782 1591 558 279 140 139 1979 2515 2110 760 380 190 190 $17,011 .ci 1980 1079 1094 265 133 66 66 FH 1981 936 992 325 163 81 81 1 1982 699 825 260 130 65 65 0. GRAND TOTAL ALL DIRECT + ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS) IIA 1978 2282 1958 643 322 161 160 1979 2279 2297 789 395 196 196 1980 978 981 329 165 82 82 1981 819 868 285 143 71 71 1982 613 722 228 114 57 57 IIB 1978 2385 2075 679 340 170 169 1979 3038 2530 865 433 216 216 $16,852 1980 1079 1094 265 133 66 66 1981 936 992 325 163 81 81 1982 699 825 260 130 65 65 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., The location of these new households was allocated according to both the present distribution of households which concentrates the majority of the region's population in the urban area of Port Angeles, and recent growth trends in the surrounding unincorporated area, east to the Sequim-Dungeness Valley, based on information from the planning de- partments of both Clallam. County and the City of Port Angeles. (See existing condition text and Tables VII-1 through VII-5.) With this infor- mation as a base, 50% of the new households were allocated to incorporated Port Angeles, 25% to the unincorporated area around the city within the Port Angeles school district, and 25% to the unincorporated area of the Sequim school district. On the assumption that families seeking ur- ban amenities would locate in the City of Port Angeles in preference to the City of Sequim, very few or no families were assumed to move to Sequim itself. The significance matrix for Port Angeles/Clallam County (Table VII-69) shows that all five years of both Scenarios II-A and II-B will have signifi- cant population, land use, and infrastructure impacts on the City of Port Angeles and the Port Angeles school idistrict area. Only the peak year 1979 involves population increases in the Sequim school district area large enough to produce significant land use and infrastructure impacts, based on the annual growth criterion of significance developed in Chapter VI. Population growth levels in 1978, considering all direct and all indirect employment (including direct construction), will be large enough to exceed the criterion of significance for the Sequim area as well. At the historical growth rate in Clallam County, the levels of growth allocated to the three areas described above will have significant land use impacts on the county as a whole, at least during peak construction (1978-80). Port Angeles has experienced extremely slow growth in the recent past with the exception of 1975-76 when the rate increased to 1.6% (see Table VII-4). At the historic growth rate of the early 1970s of only 0.14% per year, the 1979 scenario population, in increase of 5.9% over the present population (households) is equivalent to 42 years of growth in this city. This peak year population increment is equivalent to over nine years of growth in the surrounding unincorporated areas of the Port Angeles school district area, but only 1.3 year equivalent to the Sequim school district area. The 171 acres of land conversion projected for Port Angeles represent an increase of 14.3% in the residential land use within the city and consume 7.8% of the remaining undeveloped lands within the city limits. (See Table VII-70.) While this is a considerable degree of new urbaniza- tion, it does not consume valuable timber or intensively farmed crop land since nearly all undeveloped lands within Port Angeles proper are chiefly being held for future residential development. The conversion of these lands is within the stated policies of both the city and county to en- courage infilling development in urban areas in preference to low-density suburban encroachment on rural unincorporated lands. VII-90 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-69 SIGNIFICANCE MATRIX - LAND USE AND INFRASTRUCTURE PORT ANGELES Significant Scenario/ Community Unincorporated year IIA Northern Tier Port Angeles Sequim Clallam Port Angeles School District School District County 1978 x x x 1979 x x x x 1980 x x x 1981 x x x 1982 x x x IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 1978 x x x 1979 x x x x 1980 x x x 1981 x x 1982 x x X = Significant for both Land Use and Infrastructure = Significant for Infrastructure only = Not significant Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. TABLE VII-70 LAND USE - MAXIMUM IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES PORT ANGELES Growth Total New Total as Historical Equi- MAXIMUM IMPACT Persons % of 1975 growth New Existing valence SCENARIO IIB (Direct perm- Clallam rate Households Communi- at increase Transshipment/Port anent and all County % (average) in ty House- % Histori- Acreage c in residential Angeles Indirect Population 1970-1976 Communi ty holds Increase cal Rate Consumed Acreage year 1979 2110 5.7% 2.3% Port Angeles 0.14% 380 6,423 5.9% 42.1y 171 14.3 Port Angeles SO 1.6 190 2,04 9.3% 5.8 114 1.7 (Countywide) Sequim SD 5.0% 190 3020 6.3 1.3 114 Footnotes a Derived considering enrollment and population trends combined b Derived from enrollment figures, Port Angeles family size, and Clallam County schoolchildren per household c Parcel Size = 1/4 acre in Port Angeles, 0.4 acres in unincorporated acreas Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 57 Land use conversion in the Port Angeles and Sequim. school district unincorporated areas would consume a total of 228 acres of undeveloped lands according to the expected number of households and the parcel size used to determine conversion (see discussion in Chapter VI). This amount of land conversion represents a 1.7% increase in residential land use within the county, but consumes only a very small fraction of all open lands. Assuming that all the lands converted are relatively flat agricultural lands within the coastal terrace and stream valleys, this acreage repre- sents 0.4% of the remaining lands used for agriculture and small private forest (0.8% of crop lands only). The indirect impact is thus slightly greater than the direct impact described previously. While these values are quite small on a percentage basis, all future land conversions of agricultural lands continue a trend of urban encroach- ments on this productive land use which encourages ongoing speculation on agricultural acreage which in turn makes farming economically difficult by causing a rise in property values. Excessive speculation, already recognized as a problem by the county, discourages landowners from pre- serving highly fertile lands for agriculture under RCW 84.34 and stimulates further farm land conversion. In addition, in contrast to development within incorporated Port Angeles, urban development of this type projected for the surrounding unincorporated lands is the type of suburban encroachment on rural lands specifically discouraged by current county planning policies. b. Infrastructure (Secondary) Population Growth Impacts As described under land use/demography impacts, the two scenarios with significant population growth/infrastructure impacts on the Port Angeles/Clallam County activity zone are II-A and II-B (Northern Tier Pipeline at Port Angeles, with and without the Puget Spur). The 1979 peak year impact will represent an influx of 865 households with demands for the various community services and utilities. Of these, 760 will make a contribution to the local property tax base (Tables VII-68 and VII-71). Based on a weighted average income of $17,010 per household, this yields an affordable house price of $37,800, a total market value in- crease of $28.7 million and a total increase in assessed valuation for the area of $27.1 million. These increases are allocated to Port Angeles (incorporated), Port Angeles school district area (unincorporated), and Sequim school district area (unincorporated). (See Table VII-71.) (1) School Impacts. Impacts on local school districts are in many ways the most important infrastructure impacts of new growth for several reasons. Schools are among the most costly of community services and demand a high proportion of property tax revenues. Education is important, and there is uniform community concern in areas with a high proportion of young families that the children be provided with adequate school facilities offering quality educational programs. Schooling must be provided by the community; unlike low-density water supply and wastewater disposal, it cannot properly be provided on a family by family basis. Port Angeles/Clallam County impacts of Scenarios II-A and II-B on the local school districts are given in Tables VII-72 and VII-73. Based on the significance matrix (Table VII-69), the school impacts for nearly VII-93 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-71 INFRASTRUCTURE - VALUE OF HOUSING PORT ANGELES Market Value of Housing (Project Component) (weighted average) Assessed Valuation of Housing (Project Component) Per Household Total Per Household Thousands) $ ($ Thousands)- $ $37,800 $28,728.0 $35,645. $27,090.5 Port Angel.es $14,364.0 $13,545.3 Port Angeles SD $ 7,182.0 $ 6,772.6 Sequim SD $ 7,182.0 6,772.6 Total 28,728 27,090.5 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. db t I 1 1 TABLE VII-72 SCHOOL IMPACTS - FACILITIES AND ENROLLMENT PORT ANGELES MAXIMUM IMPACT YEAR/SCENARIO 1979 Total Capacity Enrollment % Increase remaining New Teachers or School age child- New students Including in 1976 before project Classrooms required Community School District Households ren per household generated Project Enrollment (pupils) Elementary/Secondary Port Angeles 162 Dir. 1.79 290 488 Ind. 0.57 278 568 5394 11.8 -1516 11 13 Sequim 53 Dir. 1.79 95 162 Ind. 0.57 92 187 1911 10.9 -442 4 4 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. Ul TABLE VII-73 SCHOOL IMPACT FISCAL AND CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT PORT ANGELES 14AXIMUM IMPACT YEAR/SCENARIO 1979 Space and Land Requirement Assessed Local Valuation Project Property Elementary Secondary Increase Square Total % Increase Market Tax % Difference in Footage Project in District Value revenue from average Square Ft. Acres Square Ft. Acres Bonding paid for > Contribution Assessed per per local revenue Classroom School Classroom S@hool Capacity @ $46/ School District ($ Thousands Valuation Pupil Pupil per Pupil Space land Space Land (.$ Thousands) SF Port Angeles $20,317.9 6.7% 37,933 $342 -0.34% 23,515 8 39,874 13 $1,077.3 23,420 Sequim 6,772.6 4.0% 38,406 $167 -32.8 % 7,742 6 13,127 1 359.1 7,807 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 0 all years of both Scenarios II-A and II-B will be significant in both the Port Angeles and Sequim school districts. The peak year population levels G add 568 students to the enrollment of the Port Angeles school district (an increase of 12% over 1976 enrollment) and 187 students to the Sequim. district (an 11% increase). Both of these districts are presently suffering from an extreme facilities deficit -- over-enrollment of 1500 and 450 students, respectively. Concurrently, the new demand for housing by the proportion of these families requiring new housing will increase the district assessed valuation by 6.7% and 4%, respectively. Thus, the increase in enrollment contributed is proportionately 1.7 to 2.7 times larger than the increased assessed vwluation contributed. Similarly, the market value per pupil contributed for the new employees' families is significantly lower than the existing market value/pupil in the districts. (Compare Table VII-73 to Table VII-13.) The local property tax revenue contributed by the growth increment in each district is 33% lower than the present local tax revenue in the district. Thus, on the weighted average method for family income used in this study (see Chapter VI), the new residents of the area, as a result of the oil development activity in Scenarios II-A and II-B, appear less able to pay for the education of their children than the present residents. The actual difference may be less than apparent because of the contribution to local property tax revenues for schools by the project itself, by the timber roll, and by existing industry in the districts, which contribute mone y but not enrollment. Moreover, since the mix of new employees will have a slightly higher than average income for the area, they will contribute relatively more to the state general fund, which is also apportioned to the school districts. The new enrollment generated under the peak scenario year will demand an additional 63,400 square feet of classroom space in the Port Angeles school district and 15,500 square feet in the Sequim. district. Port Angeles passed a $2.7 million bond issue early in 1976 to provide for new school construction to begin to handle its extreme overcrowding. The district had been forestalling expansion, probably because of its slowly declining enrollment in the early 1970s (-0.7% per year). The Scenario II-B enrollment would add $1.1 million to the district's bonding capacity, which could pay for 23,400 square feet of classroom space if land costs (2%) are not considered. The Sequim. school district faces severe facilities problems from any new enrollment since the district has refused to pass a bond issue since 1955, and has also consistently voted down its special annual levy. This anti-school expansion attitude reflects the high proportion of so- called empty nesters and retired people living in the Sequim. area, but is still surprising in view of the 3.3% annual growth rate experienced in the district since 1970. In view of the financial and facilities problems faced by the Sequim. district, the nearly 200 new students contributed by oil-related employment in the area,will aggravate an already serious problem in this district. While the new fa'milies probably would form a group more favorable to passing bond issues,;their vote alone will not guarantee the necessary funds nor provide the facilities for at least five years after VII-96 Arthur D Little- Inc their arrival. The increased bonding capacity provided by the growth in the district ($0.36 million) would pay for 7800 of the 21,000 additional square feet of classroom space required (37%) or 7500 square feet if the land cost of seven additional acres of school land is subtracted. (2) Water Supply. Under Scenario II-B in 1979, the addition of 649 households to Port Angeles and immediate unincorporated vicinity would aggravate the water supply shortage which now exists due to the inadequacy of Morse Creek. An intolerable water supply situation would exist, especially if unmetered consumption were to continue at the high rate of 900 gallons per residents per day. The oil terminal-stimulated population could be demanding over half a million gallons of creek water per day. Furthermore, Port Angeles' water supply is so limited that even the lower demand generated if a metered system cut usage to one-third (an added de- mand of about 200,000 gallons per day) would cause grave problems in a water system that is required to expand to meet even its present needs. Scenario II-A in 1979 would add roughly one-tenth the number of households. Impact would be proportionally less but would still require expansion of an already overtaxed water supply. (3) Wastewater Disposal. Since the design population for Port Angeles' present treatment plant is 24,000 and it is currently serving about 16,000, the addition of even the maximum case (Scenario II-B in 1979) of 1895 new residents would not tax the wastewater treatment system of Port Angeles. This population increment (649 households) would consume ML 24% of the remaining service capacity of the plant. Although a new secondary-level plant is planned for Port Angeles, to be built by about 1980 pending grant money, the extent of its expansion of capacity will be based upon official population projections for the city independent of any oil scenarios. Since the Scenario II-B of 1979, the added population re- sulting from direct and indirect oil terminal employment would exceed one year's projected population growth, the new treatment plant capacity would be allocated sooner than it would if the oil terminal were not located at Port Angeles. The new or existing wastewater treatment system would not be taxed by the added population (roughly 65 households) of Scenario 11-A in 1979. The wastewater treatment system in Sequim now has capacity problems which would be slightly exacerbated with the addition of 216 households under Scenario II-B in 1979, and probably not significantly affected by the addition of about 20 new households under Scenario II-A in 1979. Sequim wi'll also be upgrading and doubling or tripling the capacity of its treatment system by approximately 1980; this new system would be more than adequate for the added population. (4) Solid Waste. The 60-acre municipal landfill serving Port Angeles is, according to R. Wright, the Clallam County utilities supervisor, ex- pected to have no problems with capacity to serve future population growth in Port Angeles. The landfill now serves all of east Clallam County as well as Port Angeles, a total of about 30,000 people. The addition of 1895 new people under Scenario II-B would represent only about a 1% in- crease in service population. The useful life of Port Angeles' landfill (about 15-20 years from the present) should not be significantly reduced by this increase. Arthur D Little, Inc VII-97 Impacts from the new population (649 households in Port Angeles) are not expected to be adverse on fire protection, flood control, trans- portation (roads), or energy supply infrastructure elements. The added service population would not cause problems or overtax any system, but would serve to bring somewhat closer the time when these systems (for example, roads) would have to be expanded. C. Terrestrial Biology As described under land use impacts and given in Table VII-65, Scenario II-A will require the conversion of 90-150 acres of now open lands to intensive industrial use. Scenario II-B will require the con- version of 140-220 acres. Below is a table of the proposed site for the onshore facilities (Ediz Hook) and the three subalternatives, giving the acreage available and the existing vegetation communities on the site. TABLE VII-74 - EXISTING VEGETATION OF PROPOSED SUBALTERNATIVE SITES FOR ONSHORE FACILITIES (Clallam. County) Subalternative Site Acreage Available Existing Vegetation Freshwater Bay 350 Non-natural (intensive agriculture) surrounding lands in second-growth mixed coniferous/decidu.ous forest Ediz Hook 100* Cleared, weedy Morse Creek 120 Riparian, grassland, shrubland (bluff) Green Point 175 Late second-growth mixed (Siebert Creek) deciduous/coniferous forest *Includes 20-acre lagoon at base of Hook. As discussed under land use impacts, only the Freshwater Bay subalterna- tive has clearly enough suitable acreage to accommodate the maximum develop- ment necessitated by the throughput in Scenario II-B in 1990. The minimum project, Scenario II-A in 1980, could be accommodated at all four subalter- native locations. In discussing the relative impact on terrestrial biology, facilities acreage limitations are assumed to be a separate problem, and the sites may be compared as if they were all equally possible. VII-98 Arthur D Little, Inc Terrestrial biology impacts would be minimal at the Ediz Hook loca- tion for the pump station and partial surge/storage since this site is the most disturbed of the four and has almost no value for terrestrial wildlife. There is some use of the breakwater/Bay and breakwater/Strait interface by shorebirds, but this use would be little affected by the conversion of the upland to a tank farm except that the birds would probably avoid the area during the period of maximum construction activity. The Utilization of this site as a tank farm for the Northern Tier Pipeline proposal is comparable to the existing, rather low-density industrial use of much of the Ediz Hook spit and its land connection. Incremental impacts on local wildlife would be minor. None of the three remaining subalternative sites would be subject to major terrestrial biology impact in a regional sense. Of the three, Fresh- water Bay is in some ways the least sensitive since it is already in a non-natural although open space use as crop land. The impacts of agricul- tural land conversion are land use, not terrestrial biology impacts, since the taking of wildlife and ecological community value has already occurred in the original clearing for agriculture itself. In addition to the tank farm site, a typical pipeline corridor would have to be cleared between the surge/storage and the shore, leading to the connection with the offshore SPM. The short length of pipeline corridor would also pass through agricultural lands. The analysis of the Northern Tier Pipeline presented in Chapter VIII terminates at Morse Creek. The Freshwater Bay subalternative would require extension of the corridor by several miles to the west where it would traverse areas of agriculture interspersed with dense second-growth forest, composed of both coniferous and deciduous species. The impacts of creating a new cleared corridor through forested lands are discussed in Chapter VIII. Both, the riparian and shrubland vegetation at the Morse Creek site and the late second-growth forest of the Green Point site have moderate ecological importance and wildlife value. However, all of the lands in proximity to the waterfront in the area east of Port Angeles are undergoing accelerated pressure for residential development. There is al- ready considerable low-density residential development in the area of these sites, as well as a railroad right-of-way and arterial roads which have reduced the overall value of the locality as natural habitats. The introduction of onshore oil facilities represents a more intensive use of the land than this type of residential development since it creates a larger area of contiguous paved surface within which no vegetation is allowed to return. Creation of the industrial facility thus essentially constitutes an irreversible conversion of 100-200 acres of a natural com- munity to a developed site; no mitigation by revegetation of the area of intensive use is possible. The significance of the impact then reduces to a question of the rela- tive importance of the loss of 200 acres of moderately valuable second- growth forest or of riparian and shrub communities in a regional context. Conversion of relatively mature second-growth forest is perhaps more significant than loss of riparian or shrubland since the product of the VII-99 Arthur D Little, Inc time-energy investment in an ecological sense is greater. The length of time required for a cleared area to return to that state of successional maturity is far longer. On a regional scale, areas of similar maturity second-growth forest are extremely common in Clallam County and through- put the Olympic Peninsula. The conversion of 200 acres represents the loss of only 0.02% of all. the timberlands in Clallam County alone. (How- ever, within the coastal area where woodland is viewed as a residential amenity the transition from common forest to "uncommon" oil tanks may be seen as far more significant, though again this is not primarily a biological impact.) Riparian habitat is far less common than second-growth forest in proportion to the sporadic occurrence of watercourses in comparison to the nearly ubiquitous occurrence of forest lands in this part of Washington. Morse Creek is a moderately important creek in the watershed draining into the Strait of Juan de Fuca, but the amount of riparian habitat actually affected by the onshore facilities is only a few acres. It is also loca- ted quite close to the mouth of the creek so that in the extremely rare event where an oil tank ruptured and the dike failed to contain the oil, the upstream resources of Morse Creek would not be affected. However, the oil would run into the Strait east of Port Angeles harbor. Its effects would be similar to those discussed for in-harbor spills (see Chapter VIII). Siebert Creek is a less important drainage than Morse Creek -- a smaller watershed area and lower flow. Little riparian vegetation would be removed in constructing the tank farm. With respect to unlikely oil releases resulting from tank failure, the same considerations apply as for Morse Creek but the marine impact zone affected by oil entering the Strait in runoff from Siebert Creek would be slightly to the east. In proportion to its sporadic but still regular periodic occurrence, the impact of loss of riparian land is greater than for the loss of forest land. However, owing to generally high precipitation levels, riparian and deciduous forest vegetation may have many species in common and a riparian zone can be said to extend for some distance on either side of a stream. This, combined with the fact that significant watercourses occur at intervals of one mile or so in this region, indicates that the removal of a small amount of riparian vegetation from a single stream corridor is still not significant. Moreover, to avoid problems of drainage and flood- ing, the tank farm would probably@be sited above the average flood zone of the stream in which the true riparian vegetation is most dense. Habitat sensitivity is related to overall wildlife value and the presence of rare (threatened) or endangered species. The areas of second- growth forest, shrubland, and riparian vegetation potentially affected by the onshore facilities would be expected to be utilized by a "representa- tive" sample of the wildlife species given in the species list table in the appendix for these habitats. None of these areas would be expected to be unusually rich; the number of species found there should be simply related to the size of the forest, shrub, or riparian zone according to the functional relationship between animal species diversity and area. The affected local- ities may actually be poorer in wildlife species than expected, particularly large mammals or birds which avoid man's activities since the areas are already urbanized at low density. VII-100 Arthur D Little- Inc 4 A number of species identified by either the U.S. Department of Interior or the State of Washington as threatened, endangered, or potentially threatened have been recorded or are suspected to occur in the general area along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. These include the following species: endangered -- Aleutian Canada goose, Peregrine falcon. Peale's Peregrine falcon; threatened -- none; and potentially threatened -- osprey, pileated woodpecker. None of these records localizes the birds more closely than the region of occurrence, i.e., Olympic Mountains, Strait of Juan de Fuca. (See Table VIII-8.) While it is possible that one or more of these species may actually be found on.one of the possible sites proposed for the on- shore facilities, this could be established only by an extremely thorough survey of the sites and vicinity, perhaps over several seasons to determine whether the animals occur there at all d;nd whether their observed roosting or foraging territories include these sites. Some of these animals, particu- larly the falcons, are so rare that even a detailed survey might not reveal them. Such surveys are, by their nature, difficult, time-consuming, and usually impractical unless there is already a strong indication that the species may in fact utilize a particular area. Both of the critically endangered falcon species are thought to breed in the Olympic Mountain area. However, their nests are likely to be in far more remote, protected locations, than close to Port Angeles. In summary, the subalternative sites at Ediz Hook and Freshwater Bay have low biologic sensitivity. The Morse Creek and Green Point sites, as well as the auxiliary site for Ediz Hook on the bluff east of the airport, have moderate sensitivity. The combination of low to moderate sensitivity and extreme commonness of the habitat types leads to a conclusion of low terrestrial biology impact from the conversion of about 200 acres for the onshore facilities of a Norther Tier Pipeline terminus. d. Air Quality (1) Activity. Among the petroleum activity scenarios, only the Northern Tier (Scenario II) involves Port Angeles. Region supply (Scenario I) transshipment at Cherry Point (Scenario II) will entail significant vessel traffic through the Strait of Juan de Fuca past Port Angeles. The air quality impact of tanker transit is discussed in Chapter VIII; it does not materially affect the air quality of Port Angeles. The Northern Tier proposal entails transportation of some 400,000- 800,000 B/D of crude by pipeline to the Northern Tier states. Because of the low sulfur requirements of the Northern Tier refineries, a substantial portion (roughly one-third) of the crude transported must be low sulfur, presumable foreign import; the remainder could be Alaskan North Slope crude. Thus, a portion of the air quality impact of the transshipment activity is attributable to the movement of Alaskan crude itself. Unfortunately, air quality impact is highly non-linear. It is not possible to take a pro- portion of the air quality impacts, based upon the arithmetic ratio of Alaskan crude to total crude movement, nor is it possible to consider the vessel movement associated with Alaskan crude only since that would grossly underestimate the actual air quality impact resulting from the super- imposition of the two types of crude oil movement. VII-101 Arthur D Little, Inc The Northern Tier proposal calls for the construction of two fixed berths inside Ediz Hook with possible expansion to three berths if a large throughput is required in future years. The initial operation of the Northern Tier proposal either for transshipment alone (Scenario II-A) or with the Puget Spur Pipeline serving regional refineries (Scenario II-B) is assumed to use two berths only, with approximately 152 and 207 vessel calls per year, respectively. Later years of operation are assumed to require three berths, since vessel activity ranges from 240 to 375 vessel calls per year. Service to that throughput level by two berths only would entail delays in vessel unloading; waiting time could range from 5-15% and the long-term cost of such vessel delays would probably justify the cost of construction of the third berth. The fleet type for the Northern Tier proposal is specified in Chapter VI. For transshipment only (11-A), initial operation would serve the intermediate vessel size fleet. With an average vessel deadweight tonnage of 137,300, that fleet corresponds to the present U.S. Flag fleet capable of service to the Alaska/Washington trade. For Scenario II-B, regional supply via Port Angeles and the Puget Spur Pipeline, as well as for later years' operation of the transshipment project alone, the large fleet is assumed. This implies an average vessel deadweight tonnage of 179,600 and includes vessels of 250,000 DWT, corresponding to a major complement of the present world fleet and to possible larger vessels con- structed for the U.S. trade. As described in Chapter VI, it is the fleet type and the number of vessels per year at the port that determine the overall magnitude of air pollutant emissions and more particularly that determine the statistical distribution of emissions rates as a function of time. (2) Local Air Quality Impact. The majority of air emissions concen- trated in space and time come from the tanker stacks. The pollutants gen- erated during combustion of fuel is the tankers' boilers to provide energy for maneuvering cargo offloading or for maintaining the ship at idle. The local impact of these pollutants is determined principally by con- sideration of their dispersion. The fundamental model uses Gaussian plume equations which relate the elevation of the plume center line above the terrain, the source strength, the wind speed, the air stability class, and the distance from the source to provide an estimate of the concentration of pollutant at the ground. Of these factors, source strength and wind speed and air stability are variable over time. They may be defined statistically, however, by consideration of the probability of emissions combinations resulting from tanker traffic for a given fleet type and throughput on one hand and by consideration of the area's meteo.rol@gy on the other hand. Terrain elevation and distance from the source are fixed for a given area and a proposed terminal site. According to the Gaussian plume model, the variable's source strength and wind speed ca:n be eliminated from a first order considera- tion yielding a normalized ground level concentration. The normalized ground con@enti@ation simply indicates the potential of an area to be polluted by a designated source, given the mete'prologic air stability class, regardless of the source's actual strength and regardless of the wind actually prevailing at the time. The normalized ground concentration for the Port Angeles vicinity was computed for the proposed Northern Tier terminal inside Ediz Hook. VII-102 Arthur D Little, Inc. The terrain of Port Angeles is characterized by an extremely narrow strip of low, level land along the waterfront backed by a steep bluff which leads to a plateau upon which the larger portion of the city is located (see Figure VII-7). The plateau rises steadily toward the foot- hills of the Olympic Mountains, such that elevations of 1000 feet may be found slightly over three miles from the Port Angeles waterfront. The abruptly elevated terrain of the city and environs sharply reduces the effective stack height for tanker emissions and sharply increases the ground level concentration. Since ground level concentration is a function of distance, the siting of the tanker berths on Ediz Hook on the opposite side of Port Angeles harbor is an important factor in determining the emissions impact. That location places the emissions approximately one mile from the waterfront of the city itself. For dispersion under low stabilitv conditions (classes A through C), the peak concentration is reached over water in the harbor or along the narrow strip of Ediz Hook itself. The initial rise of the bluff within the city is close enough to the source of emissions that dispersion under stability class D still amounts to a substantial potential ground level concentration. Beyond one or two miles, however, even the sharply elevating terrain fails to offset the rapid dilution that is characteristic of the low stability diffusion case. Under higher stability conditions, the plume disperses far more slowly and thus retains pollutant concentrations at great distances from the emissions source. If elevating terrain brings the ground level in toward the center line of the plume, then the ground level concentration can be significant. This phenomenon dominates the local air quality impact at: Port Angeles at distances greater than roughly two miles from the tanker terminal. Figure VII-8 depicts the ground level concentration in four classes indicating the potential for local air pollutant impacts raning from minimal to high. The zones in Figure VII-8 represent the maximum ground level Concentration at each point as determined by either stability class D or stability class F. (As mentioned above, the impacts of stability class F dominate.) Because of the elevation of the effective point of release for tanker emissions, the entire area at sea level falls within the minimal potential impact zone. Qualitatively, this implies that the air emissions from major tanker operations are seldom expected to cause violations of the state standards within the minimal impact zone. The low impact zone is defined in the near vicinity of the terminal by low elevations and by higher elevations at greater distances from the ter- minal when plume dispersion has become significant, even under stability class F. Within this zone there is a potential for adverse air quality impacts, but one which is largely mitigatible by restriction of the sulfur content of tanker fuel. The medium impact zone is quite broad for Port Angeles since the majority of the city suburbs rise as a broad bowl around the harbor intersecting the concentrated portion of the tanker plume. Only a small portion of the city falls within the high potential impact zone, that which is located on a steep hill located to the west and south of the Arthur D Little Inc VII-103 V x JL 'A MOW shells shetis sand Sc mud gravel rock y sand @bseryatory Point mud WA HO Cem tGAS ge es P, ... ....... 60 K reen &S 14 A ci 0 Marine Terminal 0 1 2 3 4 > 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Greater than 200 ft. elevation ........... k 'A NORTH FIGURE VII-7 LOCATION AND TOPOGRAPHY: PORT ANGELES Al di 0 j ANGELES POINT FRESHWATER BAY EDIZ HOOK X X. GREEN POINT . ........ . g.-, ............ .................. ..... ........ ...... .... X:: .......... ........... ...... ...... 0 ...... Cn .......... .................. ......... ....... .................. .............. .............. ....................... ....... ..... ............. ........... .......... ......................... X., ......... .................... ....... ............................. .............................. ............................. : -:- . :.. . .............. ............. .............. ........... . :................. ..... .................. ........................ ................... ..... x ........ .. .... .... .... .. .. ....... .. ..... ..... . ..... . ....... ...... ................... ..................... . ....... .............. X. :-... XXXXX X. . .......... ......... -X %........ XX .............. ...... ....... . .............................. ........... ....... - ....... ......... .......... .......... ..... ..................... xxx- :..::: .:." ,, ..................................... . .*'ii.1'....'...,'.-"..."....'ii*.-.'-,."'....,'...'...".-.'..**....'..".-*ii :: :-*-1-1-1---::::::::::'- .: '* : : X X ------------ ....................... ........... X. ......................... ........... . ........ .................. ........ . ........... ...... .......................... .... ............. ........ .... ........... ......... .......... .. ........ ........ . .... . -6 -2, 0 1 2 3 4 > Normalized Ground Concentration (10 m M Zone 2 k ml A minimal <7 medium 25 70 SOURCES: NORTH r- Zone 1 Zone 3 Arthur D. Little, Inc. low 7 - 25 high >70 Marine Terminal FIGURE VII 8 NORMALIZED GROUND CONCENTRATION: PORT ANGELES intersection of C Street and 7th Street. This zone comprises a small residential area and excludes the Lincoln Public School. As will be described later, the statistical likelihood of actual violations in this zone is fairly small due to its limited extent, but.the occurrence of those few violations is extremely difficult to mitigate except by drastic reduction in the sulfur content of tanker fuel. Anticipating the emissions distribution from tanker operation, the principal impact on local ambient air quality will occur when wind speed is low. Wind speeds in excess of three meters per second, roughly six miles per hour, reduce the wind adjusted source strength for even the maximal emissions of several vessels operating simultaneously to levels at which no violation of the state sulfur dioxide one-hour standard would be expected. Indeed, it is primarily the occurrence of winds from near calm to approximately one-and-one-half meters per second that affords the greatest statistical probability of high wind adjusted source strength. The statistical distribution of winds over this velocity range is given by the wind rose in Figure VII-9. The low velocity data for the neutral and high stability classes only is presented since these are the only ones which will affect the local ambient air quality of 'Port Angeles. Recalling that a wind rose depicts the direction from which the winds come, it is clear that the predominant direction of low velocity winds is from the land toward the sea, and thus the statistical probability of low velocity air emissions impact on the land is reduced. As noted before, the plume dispersion over open water will seldom reach significant concentrations and will be completely dispersed by the time the plume reaches the shore of Vancouver Island in British Columbia. Despite the low frequency, however, there are still some 100 hours per ye 'ar during which winds of low velocity and high stability would direct the tanker plume toward land. A statistical consideration of the probability of there being zero, one, two, or three vessels in port (depending on the number of berths available) and consideration of the probability of combined emissions of vessels operating simultaneously allows exact computation of the probability of vessel emissions equaling or exceeding a given level. (Refer to discussion in Chapter VI.) The state one-hour standard for sulfur dioxide is 40 parts per hundred million (pphm), equivalent to 1048 micrograms per cubic meter (11g/O). Using that value as a criterion and dividing by the normalized ground con- centration represented by the impact zones in Figure VII-8, it is possible to obtain a value for the wind adjusted source strength which will cause Oft a violation of the state standard. In this instance, using a wind strength of one meter per second, representative of the low -velocity winds occurring in this region, it is possible to compute the probability of occurrence of tankers emitting sulfur dioxide equal to or exceeding that value. That probability is dependent not only on the type of vessel, defined by the fleet type, but also by the throughput which determines the frequency of multiple vessels operating simultaneously. VII-106 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VII-9 FREQUENCY OF OCCURENCE OF WINDS FROM 0 TO 3 KNOTS FOR STABILITY CLASSES D THROUGH G AT OP PORT ANGELES, WASHINGTON N NNW NNE NW NE NO WNW ENE ...... ..... ... ....... E w .... X.. X WSW ESE Sw SE SSW SSE S Stability Classes D E Stability Classes F & G Source: Teknekron, 1976. Arthur D little- Inc VII-107 Since the source strength will lead to violation of the state standard only under high stability, low velocity winds and only in those regions depicted on the map in Figure VII-8, it is necessary to adjust the probability of that source strength by the probability that winds will blow in the direc- tion of the relevant potential air quality impact zones. The combined probability of the appropriate sourQe strength and meteorologic conditions can be expressed as a number of hours per year during which there will be an hourly average sulfur dioxide concentration in excess of 40 pphm. Washington State standards, like the federal standards, specify a value 41 which may be exceeded only once in a year. Thus, if the number of hours per year of projected exceedance of the 40 pphm value is two or more then it implies a violation of the state standard. The number of hours per year exceedance of the state 40 pphm level is specified in Table VII-75 for the various potential air impact zones accord- ing to the crude oil transportation scenarios. The sulfur content of tanker fuel assumed in this calculation is 2%. This is a high but reasonably common value for bunker "C" commonly available to the maritime trade. Examining Table VII-75, it can be seen that only the largest throughput in Scenario II-B in 1990 results in a two-hour per year frequency of standard exceedance in potential impact Zone 1. This is primarily due to the low level of ground level concentration represented by the lower limit of that zone; statistically the number of occurrences of vessels in port simultaneously which would lead to high concentrations for this zone is very low. The large geographic extent of Zone 1 implies a relatively frequent occurrence of meteorologic conditions that would direct tanker plumes in that direction, but the plume itself is seldom sufficiently concentrated to provide violation of the state standard. The situation with impact Zone 2 is quite different, however. In this instance, the sensitivity to stack emissions is greater by virtue of its greater ground level concentration so that the probability of sufficient source strength is far greater. The broad geographic extent of impact Zone 2 leads to a fairly frequent occurrence of meteorologic conditions re- sulting in a large number of potential violations of the state standard, with 2% sulfur content of tanker fuel. The impact sensitivity of emission of impact Zone 3 is far greater than for the preceding zones. The probability of vessels equaling or exceeding that source strength is quite high; yet its extremely limited geographic range in the vicinity of Port Angeles im- plies that there will only be a few hours per year when low velocity, high stability winds impinge upon that zone. When they do, however, the chances are that the tanker emissions will be too large. It must be remembered that the impact zones are defined by fundamental terrain and distance considerations. The projection of as many as 20 hours per year in excess of the 40 pphm standard for impact Zone 2 with the activity of Scenario 11-B in 1990 does not mean that the entire area within impact Zone 2 will be exposed to that level for that period of time. It implies only that there is an expectation of some 20 hours per year when that concentration will be reached somewhere within the zone. Al- though in prinicpal it would be possible to localize the zone of maximal individual exposure, such an effort would probably be invalidated by the Arthur D Little, Inc VII-108 TABLE VII-75 ACUTE AIR QUALITY IMPACT PORT ANGELES HDurs/year SO2b % Sulfur fuel over standard 0 for no violatione Vessel calls Fleet Number of % Fully in Impact zone in Impact zone Hours/year Scenario per year _kpe@ berths occupied 1 2 3 1 2 3 high NO, I. Regional Supply Il. Northern Tier --no activity-- A. Regional by Tanker 1980 152 1 2 10 0 8 2 >3 1.2 2.5 1 1985-90 240 L 3 5 14 3 2.2 0.8 0.5 2 B. With Puget Spur 1980 207 L 2 16 0 12 21, 2.4 0.9 1.6 1 0 1985 327 L 3 11 1 17 4 2.1 0.7 0.4 2@2 1990 375 L 3 14 2 20 4 2.0 0.6 0.3 3 Ill. Transship at Cherry Point --no activity-- IV. Supply via Trans Mountain --no activity-- a I = Intermediate Vessel Size L = Large Vessel Size b for fuel with 2% Sulfur Content c State 1 hour standard is 40 pphm d high NO is 25 pphm over one hour does not correspond to applicable standard x Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. increasing error in extending statistical models to ultra-low frequencies and the actual effect would probably be masked by the contribution of sul- fur dioxide from the other industrial sources in the area. In fact, the maximum project impact would occur when the tanker plume combined with the emissions from an industrial source by winds that brought the two stacks in line. This implies a greater proportional probability of impact to the east and west of the City of Port Angeles itself. The projections of hours per year exceedance of the state standard are based upon a 2% sulfur content in tanker fuel. The simplest measure for mitigating sulfur dioxide emissions is to restrict the sulfur content of fuel used in port. Many vessels in both the intermediate and large fleet types have segregated fuel compartments which allow selective utili- zation of different fuels. It would be possible for the vessels involved to routinely use low sulfur fuels in port or to selectively use low sulfur fuels when either meteorologic conditions or high berth occupancy in- dicated that an air quality problem may be created. In order to explore this concept, the complex probability distribution may be computed back- ward, i.e., it is possible to calculate the percent sulfur content of tanker fuel that will lead to an expectation of less than two hours per year actual ground level concentration in excess of 40 pphm in any air quality potential impact zone. Those data are also presented in Table VII-75. Generally, the low sensitivity of the low potential impact Zone 1 implies that restriction of fuel below 2% sulfur is probably not necessary. For impact Zones 2 and 3, the high sensitivity and high fre- quency of adverse meteorologic conditions implies that a sharp reduction in sulfur content may be necessary, particularly for the higher throughput expected in the later years of operation of a Northern Tier transshipment project. At present, the Washington State standard for nitrogen oxide is identical to the federal standard -- 5 pphm annual average concentration. As explained in Chapter V, the actual harmful effects of nitrogen oxides are not well understood. The annual average standard is a tentative estimate of an acceptable level of long-term exposure. The absence of a federal standard for short-term exposure is based upon the absence of clear indications of permissible,levels and generally upon the rare occurrence of high concentrations of nitrogen oxides from point sources. California, however, has established a state hourly standard of 25 pphm for nitrogen dioxide. Although not based upon precise clinical evidence, this value may be taken as a "high"'level of nitrogen oxides. Since nitrogen oxides are the second most concentrated pollutant in tanker stack emissions, it is reasonable to consider the concentration of that pollu- tAnt that will occur for the various transportation scenarios. An in- dication of the number of hours per year with nitrogen oxide concentrations in excess of 25 pphm is given as the final column in Table VII-75. In general, the nitrogen oxide emissions are fairly small and the number of hours of high nitrogen oxide concentration is correspondingly low. Nitrogen oxides are far more difficult to mitigate, although certain technological features of tanker combustion chambers may be effected. The low values in Table VII-75 imply that nitogen oxides are not likely to be a major problem, but further study in that area would be required for the actual implementation of a transshipment project at Port Angeles. Arthur D Little, Inc VII-110 Emissions of all other pollutants from tanker stacks -- particulate, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and organic compounds -- occur in far smaller volumes than either nitrogen oxide or sulfur dioxide. The short-term levels of these pollutants will not reach unacceptable levels based upon an analysis of the distribution of tanker emissions alone. There is, however, a major source of reactive organic gases or hydrocarbons from the tank farm that must accompany an oil transshipment project. As described in Chapter VI, each crude oil storage tank is subject to substantial standing emissions based upon a complex of factors including wind speed. At present, the exact site of a tank farm for Port Angeles is not specified in the Northern Tier application. Possible locations for an Ediz Hook terminal would be for some tankage at the base of Ediz Hook, near the Crown Zellerbach plant, and for the remaining tanks placed on the bluff above, west of the city and north of the airport. The emissions from the tanks may be assumed to derive from a broad cylinder with an effective stack height of approximately 20 meters (65 feet). Depending on the exact configuration of tanks, several individual units will result in an aggregate source strength of several tens of grams per second under some conditions. Considering the low effective stack height for the tanks, the emissions plume will impinge upon the ground fairly close to the tanks under all conditions of air stability. Considering further the occurrence of low velocity wind conditions (on the order of six knots or less),, it is quite probable that ground level concentration will reach one to two parts per million reactive organic gases in the vicinity of the tanks (1 to 5 kilometers distance). That concentration is four to eight times greater than the federal and State of Washington standard for three-hour average non-menthane hydrocarbons between the hours of 6:00 a.m. and 9:00 a.m. Conditions suitable for three-hour averages in that range of concentration will occur at Port Angeles on the order of 100 hours per year. As discussed in Chapter V, the 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. hydrocarbon standard is oriented toward the problem of regional ozone or oxidant formation. The concentration for that standard is set by consideration of historical oxidant data from several large cities in the United States. The actual areawide oxidant experience in a rural region may not be critically dependent upon the 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. hydrocarbon con- centration in a small portion. The problem of regional air quality impacts will be discussed in the following section. (3) Regional Air Quality Impact. The regional air quality impact of tanker operations at Port Angeles derives from the contribution of sub- stantial quantities of some pollutants to the regional air basin pollutant burden. Table VII-76 presents the average daily emissions for the various scenarios for the four pollutants of major contribution and major air quality concern. The level of emissions for carbon monoxide is insignifi- cant. Numerically, the greatest impact is the large volume of reactive organic gas or hydrocarbon vapor which will be emitted by the storage tanks and by vessel purging if it occurs in the terminal vicinity. Vii-ill Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIT-76 AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - MARINE TERMINAL PORT ANGELES (tons/day) Pollutant Hydrocarbons sox NOx Particulates Fuel Purging Storage & Misc, Scenario I-A No activity at Port Angeles Scenario I-B No activity at Port Angeles Scenario II-A 1980 1.240 0.872 0.212 0.068 4.296 7.164 1985 2.200 1.552 0.376 0.120 8.784 11.704 1990 2.200 1.552 0.376 0.120 8.784 11.704 Scenario II-B 1980 1.898 1.339 0.324 0.104 7.576 10.480 1985 2.998 2.115 0.512 0.512 11.968 15.280 1990 3.438 2.425 0.588 0.588 13.725 17.113 Scenario III No activity at Port Angeles Scenario IV No activity at Port Angeles Source: Arthur D. Little-, Inc. All 1. VII-112 Arthur ID Little, Inc 41 Although a short-term standard for hydrocarbons is promulgated by the U.S. EPA, it pertains to the formation of photochemical oxidant and not to any direct health or property impact. Since reactive organic gases are the limiting precursor for the formation of photochemical oxidant, the large volume of emissions from a transshipment project raises the question of whether high oxidant levels will result. At present, it is not possible to conduct a detailed statistical analysis since there is no monitoring for oxidants in the area and the inventories of reactive organic gases in the air basin cannot be compared with any direct oxidant concentration that may result. It is possible to make a comparative study of certain features of the Port Angeles meteorology with other areas for which oxidant data are available, and by inference to estimate the probable impact on regional air quality of the project hydrocarbon emissions. Two factors act to sharply limit the potential oxidant formation. One is the sparse settlement throughout the air basin; the second is the relatively low frequency of weather conditions suitable for the formation of high oxidant levels. Among these two, it is the former, the low-density of development, that is probably most significant in reducing the oxidant potential for the Port Angeles region. Since photochemical oxidant is formed only after lengthy reaction times (usually on the order of 3 to 10 hours, depending on temperature and concentration of reactants), the actual zone of maximal impact is necessarily displaced from the point of emissions origin by the movement of the air parcel over that period of time. In a nonurbanized area, the air parcel:containing point source hydrocarbon emissions is subject to substantial dilution with distance and is not afforded augmentation by either emissions from new sources over which the parcel passes or by lateral exchange with other adjoining par- cels of equally contaminated air. It is primarily in large, uniformly developed. basins such as the Los Angeles basin that the concentration of principal. reactants can be maintained at an adequate level throughout the 20-50 mile reaction trajectory. In the instance of emissions at Port Angeles, the large volume of hydrocarbons would not receive the necessary augmentation of reactant components to afford its maximal production of photochemical oxidant even under ideal conditions. Ideal conditions for oxidant formation are high temperatures, bright sunshine, and a low thermal inversion layer persistent throughout the day which traps reactant gases throughout the long reaction period. Con- ditions such as these are not common at Port Angeles. Although sunshine is not rare, the frequency of windless, hot, bright sunny days is far smaller in the Port Angeles area than it is at many locations along the Pacific Coast of the United States. Statistically, this sharply reduces the probability of occurrence of smog conditions. Furthermore, Port Angeles lies on the steep foothills adjoining the Olympic Range along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Strait is well ventilated by prevailing winds and the prevailing trajectories do not direct emissions into enclosed VII-113 Arthur D Little, Inc valleys where they may become trapped by a thermal inversion in the air above. The expansive terrain and pattern of prevailing winds afford a far greater dissipation and dilution potential for regional emissions than is common at many other locations which have well described photochemical oxidant problems. Nonetheless, there are occasionally conditions which are suitable for oxidant formation. The principal node of impact may be either the Sequim-Dungeness Peninsula, 10-30 miles to the east, or it may be the City of Port Angeles itself through a reflux phenomenon common along the coast where nighttime drainage winds carry reactant gases offshore which may be brought inland again by the prevailing winds as they dominate during the mid-morning. Although meteorologic records have not been examined for the combination of factors required, a casual inspection implies that it is quite possible to have oxidant formation on the order of several days per year in this area and in the Sequim-Dungeness area to the east. The actual oxidant experience will be limited by the presence of reactant percursors. The large quantity of reactive organic gases from the project would provide an ample supply of reactant'substances for the formation of photo- chemical oxidant. Under the proper conditions, quantities of organic gases such as those depicted for Scenario II in Table VII-76 could easily form oxidant concentrations on the order of 1 to 3 pphm, drawing primarily upon ambient availability of nitrogen oxides from the urban population and the industry associated with Port Angeles. Since the project would be the major hydrocarbon source, the background ozone level contributed by urban development would probably be on the same order as those derived from the project itself and the aggregate is still likely to fall below the state and federal standard of 8 pphm for oxidant or ozone from man-made sources. In the presence of the project, it is likely that the annual geometric need of oxidant concentration would still be quite low simply because the average conditions are not suitable for the formation of photochemical oxidant. Conditions that are suitable are rare, but probably exist with significant frequency. This would imply that the distribution of oxidant at Port Angeles would have a fairly large standard geometric deviation. Even in the future if urbanization or even a large recreational trade develops and oxidant is monitored, it is likely that substantial develop- ment could occur with oxidant exceeding the federal standard only a few days per year. This statistical lack of sensitivity is characteristic of locations with a low geometric mean and high standard deviation. The project contribution of sulfur dioxide is significant in direct proportion to the sulfur content of tanker fuel. If a typical value of 2% is used, a transshipment project will contribute several tons per day. This is roughly equivalent to the level of emissions from one of the major industrial operators in Port Angeles at present. Since air monitoring has only recently been initiated for sulfur dioxide, it is not possible to describe long-term trends. The extremely high values occasionally noted VII-114 Arthur D Little, Inc for sulfur dioxide as well as the unacceptable long-term averages imply that this; pollutant is a problem which may not be easily solved. Addition of the project (without substantial mitigation by reduction in sulfur content for fuel) would not only cause violation of short-term standards, but would also cause an aggravation of long-term standards since it would act as a geographically and statistically separate source of similar magnitude to the two or three major sources operating at present. Regional contribution of particulates and nitrogen dioxide are probably not significant in and of themselves. The particulate quantity is quite small, particularly by comparison with the quantity of particulates emitted by other sources. Nitrogen oxides are likely to be significant only inasmuch as they contribute a necessary reactant precursor to the formation of photochemical oxidant from the large volume of reactive organic gases that would stem from the operation of the project at Port Angeles. Since the transshipment scenarios will induce significant population growth in the area, there will be an increase in the level of urban air emissions. Some of these will be commute trips by oil terminal employees. The vast majority, however, will be vehicular activity normally associated with low to moderate density urban living. The presently low level of urbanization and, hence, the low level of existing area source urban pollu- tants is important in minimizing the impact of hydrocarbon emissions and in preserving air quality standards for oxidant and carbon monxide. The level of population pollutant emissions from induced growth is small, however, by comparison with the quantity of emissions generated by the seasonal tourist industry, for example, and certainly by comparison with the quantity of emissions from the transshipment project itself, since those emissions of sulfur dioxide directly pertain to an established air quality problem in Port Angeles. A factor representing the emissions from ancillary employee activity at the marine terminal is included in the emissions estimate in Table VII-76. e. Water Quality/Marine Biology (1) Impact Generators. An oil transshipment terminal at Port Angeles would introduce two new sources of oil release into the water surrounding Ediz Hook -- operational and in-port casualty spillage. While both types of spills, would contribute similar average amounts of oil to the waters over a given period (see Tables VII-77 and VII-78), the larger casualty spills would occur only on the order of once every 9 to 17 years, while operational spills are expected to occur once every 8 to 19 weeks. Al- though the larger casualty spill would affect a larger number of marine organisms at the time of the spill, the repeated exposure to oil result- ing from the high frequency of operational spills means that operational spills are of more concern as chronic impact generators than are casualty spills. (Note that this discussion is concerned only with local effects of operation of the marine terminal itself. The far more significant oil spills and impact of tanker transportation are discussed in Chapter VIII.) VII-115 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-77 OPERATIONAL SPILLS AT MARINE TERMINAL PORT ANGELES Throughput operational Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr I.. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 0 0 0 B. Restricted Fleet 0 0 0 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Reqional Supply by Tanker 1980 400 (1) 2.73 740 1985-1990 800 (L) 4.32 1180 B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 1980 690 (L) 3.73 1010 1985 1090 (L) 5.89 1600 1990 1250 (L) 6.75 1840 III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 1990 0 0 0 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain 0 0 0 Pipeline (a) R = restricted fleet, average tanker size is 86,700 Dwt I = intermediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,300 Dwt L = large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIT-116 Arthur D Little- fix- TABLE VII-78 CASUALTY SPILLS IN PORT PORT ANGELES Throughput Casualty Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr I. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestri,cted Fleet 0 0 0 B. Restricted Fleet 0 0 0 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 400 (1) 0.0932 580 1985-1990 800 (L) 0.0682 9110 B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 1980 690 (L) 0.0588 780 1985 1090 (L) 0.0929 1240 1990 1250 (L) 0.1065 1420 III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 1990 0 0 0 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain 0 0 0 Pipeline (a). R = restricted fleet, average tanker size is 86,700 Dwt I = intermediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,300 Dwt L = large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt Source: Arthur D Little, Inc. VII-117 Arthur D Little- Inc As indicated in Table VII-79, the amounts of oil released into Port Angeles' waters by spillage from an oil terminal are somewhat greater than the amounts expected to be released from March Point or from Cherry Point. This is due to the high throughput of crude at Port Angeles in Scenarios II-A and II-B. The total amount of oil entering Port Angeles' Waters, however, is substantially lower because Port Angeles has a rela- tively low background contribution of oil. Port Angeles has no refineries, and in the absence of monitoring of accidental or illegal oil release resulting from shipping activities in the port, the only estimable source of oil pollution at Port Angeles is the oil contained in urban runoff. According to Stan Springer of the Department of Ecology's Southwest Region,the oil load in storm sewers after the first rainfall of the rainy season may approach the discharge rate of a refinery, although this load- ing has not been measured. The Puget Sound refineries may discharge up to a rate of 153 to 254 pounds per day (according to their NPDES permits). Considering other port activities as well, 150 pounds per day was chosen to estimate the average oil release from the small City of Port Angeles. This amount constitutes the background oil discharge at Port Angeles, and would continue to represent at least two-thirds of the total amount of oil entering the vicinity's waters, even if a transshipment terminal is located at Port Angeles. For the purpose of obtaining a worst case chronic concentration of oil resulting from both background and terminal oil releases, the average amounts of oil spilled and discharged over a 10-day period were used. In 10 days, receiving waters would undergo complete exchange and.the quantity of oil on surfaces and in sediments would be significantly less soluble. The amounts of oil used for calculations of concentrations are probably overestimated because the receiving waters are probably replaced with new waters more rapidly than 10 days and the operational and casualty spillage rates reflect the highest throughput at Port Angeles (Scenario II-B in 1990). Amounts of oil spilled from the Port,Angeles terminal would usually be less than those for the maximum scenario. The water volume used to calculate the steady state or chronic oil concentrations with and without a Port Angeles terminal is established by the zone of probable impact, the dark grey area on Figure VII-10. This zone represents the area through which oil spilled at Port Angeles would most probably be moved over the course of one day. (See discussion of oil spill mobility in Chapter VIII.) Oil concentrations were calculated using this volume (the zone's area and-average depth) and the 10-day oil releases from background and terminal sources. As seen in Table VII-49, the levels of oil reached through chronic oil spillage and runoff at Port Angeles are extremely low, below 4 parts per billion (ppb), with both background and terminal oil concentrations added together. The absence of refineries at Port Angeles results in a chronic oil concentration about one-third that of March Point or Cherry Point. However, all three steady state concentrations are very low. Furthermore, the concentration of oil in Port Angeles' waters would be even lower if a receiving water residence time of less than 10 days is assumed and if a scenario with less throughput than Scenario'II-B in 1990 were chosen. VII-118 Arthur D Little, Inc.. TABLE VII-79 OIL DISCHARGE IN TERMINAL VICINITY PORT ANGELES BACKGROUND lbs/da kg/10da Urban Runoff ISO 680 Refineries (NPDES permit) TERMINAL Operational 176 Spills Casualty 135 Spills TOTAL 991 VII-119 Arthur D Little, Inc S T T 0 F J D E F U C A PORT ANGELES GREEN POINT 0 2 4 6 Operational Oil Spills at Marine Terminal kmmi 0 3 6 9 SOURCES: Possible impact zone. NORTH Arthur D. Little, Inc. Probable impact zone FIGURE VII-10 POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE IMPACT ZONE: PORT ANGELES 4k 40 1 k, 41 a db Chronic exposure to a crude oil concentration of 4 ppb would not affect the marine resources of the area in any way. The lowest concen- tration of crude oil producing deleterious effects of phytoplankton (microscopic plant life) were 100,000 ppb, as found by LaCaze (1969). Mironov 1(1970) found that some species of phytoplankton suffered reduced cell division at 10 ppb, but the substance used was kerosene which is con- fined to the highly toxic, volatile fraction of crude oil and would not represent the lower toxicity of crude. The threshold concentration for ill effects suffered by other groups of plants and animals when exposed to crude or its fractions are all orders of magnitude higher than any chronic concentration resulting from an oil terminal at Port Angeles. While steady state concentrations of oil resulting from terminal spillage at Port Angeles are not considered adverse impact generators, the extreme concentrations of oil present immediately after a spill would harm any organisms present at the time of the spill. Within the possible impact zone, exposure of biota to the mechanical (surface-coating) and acute chemical toxicity effects of freshly spilled crude would occur on the average of every 8 to 19 weeks from operational spillage as well as every 9 to 17 years from casualty spillage in the Port Angeles terminal. While casualty spills would be larger, both spill types would be located somewhere within the possible impact zone within one day after the spills took place. After one day, the oil may either be cleaned up or be further dispersed by winds and tides (see Chapter VIII). The spilled oil would be located riot only on the water's surface but would be partially whipped by wave action into tiny droplets mixed as an oil-water emulsion into the water column itself. A major transshipment project would also result in two sources of wastewater. The increased population in the area would naturally increase the domestic sewage load. As discussed under infrastructure, the popula- tion increment is within the design capacity of current treatment facilities at Port Angeles. Although these do not provide a secondary level of treat- ment, the water quality impact of their effluent is considered slight and upgrading; will be deferred while higher priority treatment facilities in the state receive grant monies. The incremental load will probably not have a significant adverse affect on the water quality impact of domestic sewage. A second source of wastewater is storm water runoff from the tank farm and pump stations on shore and wastes discharged from the tankers in port. Storm water runoff will be collected within a dike containment system around the tank farm. It will undoubtedly require at least filtra- tion and probably a more advanced form of treatment depending on the apparent level of oil contamination. Tanker wastes include domestic sewage which will be piped onshore for conveyance to and disposal at the Port Angeles treatment facility. Since vessels will unload only at Port Angeles, there will be no oily ballast wastewater pumped from cargo tanks. Maintenance of the vessels will result in sporatic and unpredictable releases of oil and toxic chemicals, but the overall level is expected to be small by comparison with the level of marine and industrial waste discharged into the Port Angeles harbor. VII-121 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-80 CHRONIC CONCENTRATION IN PROBABLE IMPACT ZONE PORT ANGELES Scenario II B 1990 Background 2.36 TERMINAL Operational Spills 0.611 Casualty 0.469 Spills %Background of Total 69 TOTAL 3.44 (ppb) a urban run-off only Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-122 Arthur D Little- Inc (2) Impact Receptors. The possible impact zone represents the maximum expected mobility of the center of an oil slick of any size originating from Port Angeles, based on the net movements of the winds and tides of this particular segment of the Strait of Juan de Fuca over the span of one day. The oil slick would not fill up the entire zone, and actual size depends on volume spilled. The zone represents an outer limit; the spill could be located anywhere within the zone. Thus, all organisms found in the possible impact zone must be considered at risk of exposure to the acute effects of freshly spilled oil if a terminal is located at Port Angeles. (See Figures VIII-1, VIII-3, VIII-5, VIII-7, and VIII-10 for the locations of the most important of this area's marine resources, as adapted from the Marine Atlas, published by the State of Washington Department of Natural Resources.) Because both the probable and the possible impact zones have their centers inside Port Angeles, the small pocket of crabs inhabiting the port would most certainly be affected by oil spilled in Port Angeles. Following a spill from the Port Angeles terminal, these crabs may either be killed by direct contact with masses of oil or, quite likely, suffer acute chemical toxicity with possible long-term effects (such as abnormal feeding and mating behavior) through ingestion and contact with the highly toxic fresh crude emulsified in the water column. Crabs that survived a major spill would very likely have tainted flesh and would, therefore, be unmarketable for some time afterward. This small pocket of crabs in Port Angeles is locally significant and since the entire crab resource of the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Cape Flattery to Dungeness Spit is riot large, this pocket represents a moderately large proportion of the crab resource in this part of the Strait. It should be noted from Figure VIII-7 that no shrimp or scallops are present in the possible impact zone or in the Strait of Juan de Fuca region. Of the intertidal and subtidal resources in the Port Angeles vicinity, oysters and herring spawning grounds would not be affected, whereas a substantial proportion of the Strait's sparse clam resource would receive the acute and tain 'ting impact of Port Angeles' oil spills. About half of the small clam bed between Port Angeles and Dungeness Spit lies within the probable impact zone. While this is a small area, it represents a locally important resource even though not a regionally significant portion of the total clam resource. The resource with the largest area affected by Port Angeles oil spills would be the sport salmon fishery surrounding Ediz Hook and vicinity; almost the entire possible impact zone is filled with sport salmon fishing. This portion of the sport salmon fishery is probably regionally significant in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and is most certainly locally signfiicant, as is the sport bottom fishery resource which also lies within the possible impact zone of Port Angeles oil spills. Neither commercial salmon fishery nor COMMercial bottom fishery resources would be affected by oil spilled at Port Angeles. The sports fisheries could be subject to temporary fish tainting problems after an oil spill at Port Angeles but would probably not decline because adult finfish such as salmon and cod are able to escape an oil slick of small extent and short duration. VII-123 Arthur D Uttic Inc Neither eelgrass beds nor waterfowl areas, both sparse resources in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, would be affected by oil spilled at Port Angeles. The zone of possible impact does not extend as far east as the productive eelgrass beds and waterfowl areas of Dungeness Spit. In summary, the marine resources chiefly subject to the mechanical and chemical toxicity *of spilled oil at Port Angeles would be the sport salmon fishery and locally important pockets of crab and clams. 2. March Point-Skagit County The petroleum development scenarios entail little activity for March Point beyond the current level of tanker crude oil imports to serve the existing Shell and Texaco refineries., Since no transshipment is considered, the greatest volume of throughput is thus 170,000 B/D required to meet maximum regional demand. The greatest vessel activity with this throughput would occur if a state law restricting tankers to less than 125,000 DWT were to remain in effect (Scenario II-B). The several cases of regional supply via a common terminal, such as Scenario II-B (Northern Tier Pipeline with the Puget Spur) and Scenario III (Transshipment Terminal at Cherry Point), and regional supply via the Trans Mountain Pipeline (Scenario IV) will involve only minimal activity at March Point. a. Land Use (1) Direct Impacts. Additional onshore facilities associated with increased oil shipment by tanker to March Point refineries are only required in Scenarios I and II-A (Scenario I - Regional Supply and Scenario II-A - Northern Tier at Port Angeles, no Puget Spur). In each case, however, only a minimal amount of land is required for new tankage, pumping, and access since the existing tankage is adequate for up to 120,000 B/D throughput, and both Scenarios I and II-A specify 170,000 B/D, an increase of 50,000 B/D. This increment would require 10 acres additional surge/storage of 500,000 B/D plus possibly 20 acres of ancillary facilities (see Table VII-81). This tankage and access is assumed to be evenly divided between the two refineries at March Point, i.e., 15 acres from each site. Shell and Texaco each presently own about 400 acres of undeveloped land adjacent to the 250 acres intensively developed for each plant. Thus, 15 acres represent only 4% of the undeveloped holdings of each company. All of the land on the March Point peninsula has been zoned for heavy in- dustry by Skagit County. Its present use is either as pasture land or as fallow land (second-growth forest areas). There would be no conflict with existing use, ownership, zoning, or comprehensive planning. The addition of a tank site from Scenarios I and II-A represents only a 6% additon to the existing plant of either Texaco or Shell so that by comparison with the present 250-acre facilities the visual or other land use impacts of these scenarios is minimal. VII-124 Arthur D Little- Inc. TABLE VII-81 INDUSTRIAL SITE LAND CONSUMPTION ONSHORE FACILITIESa MARCH POINT Crude Throughput New Tankage b (1000 B/D) New Tankage Land Required Scenario 1980 1985 1990 Required (Acres) I. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 170 170 170 yes 30c B. Restricted Fleet 170 170 170 30c II. Northern Tier at Port'Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 170 170 170 yes 30 B. Regional Supply by Puget 30 30 30 no - Spur Pipeline III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 30 30 30 no IV. Regional Supply Trans Mountain 30 30 30 no Pipeline (a) Onshore facilities inlcude surge/storage (tank farm), pump station and access roads W Assumptions: 625,000 bbl/tank Ratio tank capacity: throughput = 10,1 10 acres/tank + 200 acres for access roads, pump stations etc. (c) Additional tankage assumped adequate for 150,000 bbl/day throughput Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-125 Arthur D Little, Inc The total acreage conversion represented by the onshore facilities of Scenarios I and II-A is equivalent to a 3% increase in total industrial land use within Skagit County. Although the onshore facilities do not present any land use problems, there is one area of potential conflict with local comprehensive planning with respect to expansion of terminal offloading facilities and new pipe- line construction in Padilla Bay. As described in this report under land use-environmental setting, the area of Padilla Bay west of the center of the Swinomish Channel is zoned industrial reserve with the stipulation that the area be approved for filling only when all alternative sites have been exhausted; the intent of the Comprehensive Plan is to protect the productive biotic uses of Padilla Bay, and to discourage or prohibit activities which upset the normal ecological balance within the Bay. For the project outlined in Scenarios I and II-A, no filling of Padilla Bay would be required. The new project facilities at March Point in Scenarios I-A and I-B are guardedly in conformance with the Coastal Zone Management Act and Skagit County Shoreline Master Program. Padilla Bay is a shoreline of statewide significance in which the natural resources and ecological systems must be protected according to the coastal Act. The expansion of offshore terminal facilities for the existing refineries at March Point will en- tail only a temporary dredging impact during extension to deeper water of the existing fixed berth trestles. Since no filling of the Bay is required, the dredging impacts may be considered short term, reversible, and therefore permissible. The minor additional tankage involved in Scenario I-A would probably not be within the defined 200 feet coastal zone since it more likely would be adjacent to the existing tankage on the hills further inland, making it 1 lble for the tanks to empty through gravity flow. possl In addition to Padilla Bay, Skagit Bay and all other marine waters, water column, and beds seaward of the extreme low tide line within Skagit County are shorelines of statewide significance. A major proportion of these areas are within the potential oil spill impact zone for tanker route segments 3, 4, 5, and 6 in Scenarios I-A, I-B, and III. The definite risk of severe damage to the natural resources of these designated shore- line areas in catastrophic oil spills appears to be in conflict with stated policies for protection of the areas, including the following additional specific policies: the statewide interest should be recognized and protected over the local interest, and the uses of shoreline of statewide significance should result in long-term benefits to the people of the state. Although regional supply or transshipment proposals involving a Burrows Bay terminal site are not defined in any of the scenarios of this study, any such proposals would have far greater land use impact than similar proposals at March Point (or Cherry Point in Whatcom County, dis- cussed below). Land use in the unincorporated county portion of Fidalgo Island is low-density, rural residential with small farms and high quality Arthur D Little Inc. VII-126 single family housing which depends heavily on the unspoiled, scenic, and country-like quality of the setting for its attraction. Any obtrusive oil industry activities, including the presence of a fixed berth terminal with a pier and trestle offshore in Burrows Bay, with large tankers fre- quently in sight, a tank farm among the agricultural or wooded lands in- land, or above-ground pipeline spanning the cliff, would change the existing unspoiled character of the landscape. (2) Indirect Impacts. Oil development Scenarios I-A (regional supply, unrestricted tanker size), I-B (regional supply, tanker size restriction), and II-A (Northern Tier Pipeline at Port Angeles, no Puget Spur) will have small population growth impacts on the March Point/ Anacortes activity zone. The size and demographic characteristics of the new population generated are indicated in Tables VII-82 through VII-85. The maximum impact year is 1979, which was calculated to produce a net population increase in the activity zone of only 71 persons (22 households) of which only 60 (20 households) will require new housing. (The difference between 20 and 22 households is the in-migrant component of direct construction employment.) These households have been allocated to Anacortes, Mount Vernon, and other Skagit County in the ratio 2:1:1, based on the present distribution of place of residence of the employees of Shell Oil at the March Point refinery. This allocation also agrees with what would be predicted from land use trend information obtained from the local planning agencies. Thus, in the maximum impact year the total population contribution is 10 house- holds in the City of Anacortes, five in Mount Vernon, and five distributed throughout the surrounding portions of western Skagit County. Given the criterion of significance as defined in Chapter VI, the impact of this small population growth increment is not significant in any of the communities or in the county, even for the peak employment year. Mount Vernon has been the most rapidly growing urban area within Skagit County with an average annual growth rate of 2.7% since 1970. Five new households thus represent only 15 days of "normal" growth. Even in Anacortes, with its history of very slow growth (0.7% since 1970), 10 households represent only four months' growth at this rate. b. Infrastructure The population increases generated by new employment in the March .P Point-Anacortes activity zone under the relevant scenarios (I-A, I-B, and II-A) were shown to be insignificant in the previous section. Therefore, a quantitative discussion of infrastructure impacts is not required. In general, the only aspect of significance about such small increases in resident population with respect to the entire spectrum of community ser- vices is that if a service or utility is already near or over capacity to serve the present population, then any increases will strain it still further. For example, at the present time the La Conner, Mount Vernon, and Burlington-Edison school districts all have an excess of students in comparison to their facilities capacity (see Table VII-30). The former Arthur D Little Inc VII-127 TABLE VII-82 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - DIRECT EMPLOYMENT MARCH POINT Permanent Employment Location of Householdsa Employees Total Persons Wages per at New per Other House- Increase as % of March Growth House- House- Total mt. Skagit hold 1975 County Population Scenario Point- Component holds hold Persons Anacortes Vernon County (1976 $) (5 4000) IA Regional-Unrestricted 5 0.7b 4 3.8c 19 3 1 0 $27,664d +0.036% IIA Northern Tier Same IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 0 III Transshipment/Cherry Point 0 Construction Peaks IA 1978 15 0.2e 3 3.8 11 2 0 1 $20,252f 1979 11 2 8 1 0 1 IB None IIA As in IA III None IV None Total Direct 00 IA 1978 20 7 20 5 1 1 +0.037% 1979 16 6 27 4 1 1 +0.051 Footnotes a Anacortes 50%,,Mount Vernon 25%, Other Skagit Co. 25% - based.on Industry data (Table VI - b 70% of new direct employment is growth (in-migration) c Washington average for families with adults aged 20-45 d Permanent-Household Incomes = $24,286 (average for Industry employees at March Point) + $3,378 (.27 second wage earners per family x $12,514) (1976 average Employment Security Act wages for Skagit County) e 20% of construction peak employees relocate to area with families f Construction-Household Incomes = $14,245 (1976 Employment Security Act wage for Construction in Skagit County) + $6,006 (.48 second wage earners per family x $12,514) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. TABLE VII-83 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT MARCH POINT Permanent Employment Location of Households a Persons per Wage Household Other Earners Increase of % Growth b Persons avera e Total mt. Skagit Household Per of 1975 Skagit Scenario Employees Component Supportedc (1976? Households Anacortes Vernon County Income Household County Population IA Regional-Unrestricted 10 3 7 2.55d 3 2 0 1 $18,470 1.48 0.013% IB Regional-Restricted As in IA IIA Northern Tier As in IA IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur None III Transshipment/Cherry Point None IV Regional-Trans Mountain None Construction Peaks IA 1978 29 9 21 2.55 8 4 2 2 $18,470 1_48 0.039 1979 45 14 33 13 7 3 3 0.062 1980 20 6 14 5 3 1 1 0.026 1981 21 6 14 5 3 1 1 0.026 1982 7 2 5 2 1 1 o- 0.009 IB As in IA IIA As in IA Total (Permanent + Peaks) IA 1978 39 12 28 11 6 2 3 $18,470 1.48 0.052 1979 55 17 40 16 9 3 4 0.075 1980 30 9 21 8 5 1 2 0.039 1981 31 9 21 8 5 1 2 0.039 1982 17 5 12 5 3 1 1 0.022 IB As in IA IIA As in IA Footnotes Assumptions - a Distribution 50% Anacortes, 25% Mt. Vernon, 25% other Skagit based on Industry data b 30% of Indirect employment is in-migration c 2.36 persons supported per job d 2.55 is 1975-76 average for Skagit cities (Anacortes, Mt. Vernon) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. TABLE VII-84 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD TOTALS MARCH POINT PERMANENT DIRECT AND ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (Land Use Impacts) Location of Households Household Income Persons Total (Weighted Scenario Employees Supported Households Anacortes Mt. Vernon Other Skagit Average) IA Regional-Unrestricted 1978 44 47 15 8 4 3 1979 60 59 20 10 5 5 1980 35 40 12 6 3 1981 36 40 12 6 3 3 1982 22 31 9 5 2 2 GRAND TOTAL ALL DIRECT + ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS) IA 1978 59 48 18 9 5 4 $20,922 1979 71 67 22 11 6 5 $20,309 1980 35 40 12 6 3 3 1981 36 40 12 6 3 3 1982 22 31 9 5 2 2 IB Regional-Restricted IIA As in IA IIB None III Transshipment/Cherry Point None IV' Regional-Trans Mountain None Source: Arthur D. Little, Ihc. C: ab db 4b 4, F TABLE VII-85 LAND USE MAXIMUM IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES MARCH POINT Growth Total New Total as Historical Equi- MAXIMUM IMPACT Persons % of 1975 growth New Existing valence SCENARIO IA (Direct perm- Skagit rate Households Communi- at % increase Regional-Unrestrict4d anent and all County % (average) in ty House- % Histori- Acreage in residential March Point Indirect Population 1970-1976 Community holds Increase, cal Rate Consumed Acreage year 1979 59 +0.11% Anacortes +0.7% 10 3019 0.3%. 0.43 y. 4 .13 Mt. Vernon +2.7% 5 3892 0.1% 0.04 y. 2 - Other Skagit Co. 0* 5 14000 0.029% - Significance - None Below criterion of significance *Growth in Skagit County has almost entirely been in incorporated areas Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. two have been experiencing slow enrollment growth since 1970 and the latter has seen a slight annual decline. The Anacortes district still has the capacity to serve 400 new students, and its enrollment has been declining at the annual rate of 1.8% since 1970. C. Terrestrial Biology As discussed under land use impacts and as shown in Table VII-81, the total land requirements for new onshore facilities (surge/storage and ancillary facilities) development at March Point is only about 30 acres in both Scenarios I (regional supply) and II-A (Northern Tier at Port Angeles, no Puget Spur). In the other scenarios, no new construction would be re- quired. This 30 acres is divided into 15 of the 400 undeveloped acres of Shell Oil's March Point property, and 15 of the 400 undeveloped acres be- longing to Texco Oil. All of these lands are either disturbed pasture- grassland or very early second-growth forest. The impacts of conversion of this small acreage on regional terrestrial biology are minimal for several reasons: (1) These habitats are extremely common and have low to moderate wildlife value. Thirty acres represents only 3.8% of the undeveloped portions of the refineries' holdings, and only 0.03% of the open lands (agriculture and timber) in western Skagit County, and (2) The new facilities would undoubtedly be developed close to the existing plant. Such proximity to lands already developed to such a heavy industrial use already have reduced wildlife value. There are several potentially threatened, threatened, or endangered species which could occur on Fidalgo Island or in the environs of Padilla Bay (see Table VIII-8). Endangered species include the California condor, pereIgrine and Peale's peregrine falcon, the threatened (in Washington) golden eagle, and the potentially threatened northern bald eagle, osprey, An spotted owl, and pileated woodpecker. Most of these are large raptorial species which are extremely wary of man's activities and would be rarely seen in the vicinity of a refinery. While early second-growth forest and open meadow-grassland constitute foraging habitat for these species, they would be unlikely to utilize the 15 acres immediately adjacent to a plant. Thus, it is unlikely that individual birds belonging to any of these popu- As lations would be directly displaced or otherwise disturbed or injured by this project. The loss of 15 acres of potential foraging habitat next to two existing oil refineries cannot be considered a significant habitat loss. d. Air Quality (1) Activity. In all scenarios addressed by this study, the petroleum industry activity at March Point is limited to se'rvice of existing refineries. Both Shell and Texaco have fixed berths in Fidalgo Bay off March Point. It is likely that Shell at least will expand and extend its berth into deeper water to accommodate vessels of 150,000 or greater deadweight tonnage. Those scenarios that require the full complement of crude oil for the re- fineries to be brought in by tanker all entail the same throughput. VII-132 Arthur D Little Inc Scenarios I-A and 11-A would have this crude brought by vessels of inter- mediate size requiring some 65.5 vessel calls per year. In the event of a restriction on tanker size within Puget Sound, the same volume would require 1.11 vessel calls per year; this is described as Scenario I-B. If the Northern Tier terminal at Point Angeles was to serve existing refineries via the Puget Spur Pipeline, it is still probable that some crude oil will be imported to March Point. This may.comprise specialty crudes which, because of their chemical composition or physical character- istics, are not easily shipped through the pipeline, or may constitute crudes carried by small vessels which cannot be conveniently served or expeditou.sly served by the Northern Tier terminal itself. It is likely that any crude movements continued to March Point under Scenario II-B would, in. fact, not comprise Alaskan crude. Specialty crudes would un- doubtedly be carried in a fleet comprising restricted sized vessels since the operation of a Puget Spur Pipeline would probably entail a restriction on tanker traffic. If transshipment at Cherry Point or continuing regional supply via the Trans Mountain Pipeline (Scenarios III and IV) were used to provide the ma3ority of the crude supply for March Point, the specialty imports would probably continue for the same reasons. It is possible that the fleet size could be of the intermediate type and the vessel calls per year would diminish. Since both Shell and Texaco were constructed in the early 1950s to utilize light, sweet Canadian crude, the proportion of sour North Slope Alaskan crude that they may run is restricted. It is probable, in fact, that of the Alaskan crude used for regional supply, perhaps only 20% of it would end up at March Point, Thus, the air quality impacts and indeed the other crude transportation impacts described for March Point are only partially attributable to Alaskan crude activity per se. (2) Local Impacts. The major potential local air quality impact at March Point will be the possible short-term concentrations of sulfur dioxide from tanker stack emissions. The susceptability to high concentrations of sulfur dioxide pertains not only to vessel emission and prevailing meteorology but also to the relationship of the surrounding terrain to the site of point source emissions (see Figure VII-11). Using Gaussian plume emissions dynamic models as described for the analysis of Port Angeles, it is possible to define zones of potential air quality impact for the March Point vicinity (see Figure VII-12). The site of terminal emissions used for the analysis is a probable location of a deeper water terminal off March Point. Even the present day terminals closer to shore, however, have a majority of their immediate vicinity as open water and the dominant air impact pattern occurs primarily under stability Class F in areas of elevated terrain over a mile or more from the terminal itself. Due to the surrounding islands, the extent of the low potential impact zone occupies nearly a full circle around the terminal site. Only the high- P lands of March Point itself, and the steep hills above the City of Anacortes, Arthur D Little Inc VII-133 -Q rk\Pt Lig or, land. ish WX emes land ......... NW6 16 PAWL * L" - A lost'' BA 26 T-3 0 ha LGO . ....... March. ... ....... Jhn Cem :p6intr BA Y n 3 R 2 E B B. + 536 Pre :kyG) Rngley Poi IM 13 Bekh 2 a W@it OSkagit' 0 1 2 3 4 Marine Terminal M1 km 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Greater than 200 ft. elevation NORTH FIGURE VII-11 LOCATION AND TOPOG11APHY: MARCH POINT Arthur D Little, In(:: VII-134 FIGURE VII-12 NORMALIZED GROUND CONCENTRATION: MARCH POINT ............ ............. ............. ............. ............. .............. ............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ................% ................ .................. .......... ........... .......... ........................... ........... ............................ .............. ....................... ........... ............ ................. ..... ... ................ ..................... ................... .......... ................... .......... ................ ............................ ............................ .... ...................... ............ .... ............. -1:48 LAN Cl ............... PADILLA BAY ........... .......... FIDALGO BAY MARCH POINT A ... BURROWS BAY ............. 'X. .......... ................... ............. ;5:M ... ... .... ........... .. ... ........... ... . ................ .................. . ......................... %.................. ........... ............ ........... ........................ DECEPTION PASS -N . P Normalized Ground Concentration 0 1 2 3 4 (10-6 m-2) - -- km M1 minimal <7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Zone 1 SOURCES: NORTH ow 7 - 25 Arthur D. Little, Inc. Zone 2 medium 25 - 70 Zone 3 high >70 Plarine Terminal Arthur D Little, Inc VII-135 fall within the immediate impact zone in terms of pollution potential. The hills are not steep and are sufficiently set back that they do not result in any portions which would fall into a high potential impact zone. They do include a portion of the City of Anacortes, however. The only portion of the March Point vicinity which would fall into a high impact zone is the small uninhabited island in Fidalgo Bay called Hat Island, located one mile from the terminal. With elevations of slightly less than 300 feet, Hat Island juts into the center line of the tanker plume and is essentially blasted by stack gases under center wind conditions. The emission spectrum of the fleet itself is weighted toward low values by the relatively few number of vessels per year which must call at March Point in any of the scenarios examined. Two berths are used for this analysis, but even the maximal throughput with a restricted fleet entails only 6% full occupancy. Thus, the statistical probability of high emission rates is fairly low. Meteorologic data were not readily available for March Point. Data for the naval air station on Whidbey Island, to the south, and for Bellingham, to the northeast, show a similar pattern of wind distribution for low frequencies, particularly if one takes into account the gradual angular shift that occurs as prevailing winds flow in through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and diverge northward and southward in the vicinity of Whidbey Island. In order to simulate the wind conditions at March Point, th*e Bellingham station data was rotated by one compass point (22-120) in a clockwise direction. Furthermore, the records available for Bellingham An and Whidby Island do not indicate any occurrence of low velocity winds Im under stability Class F; rather they attribute all low velocity winds to Classes D and E. This is at variance with the typical pattern on wind and stability class distributions, wherein the attribution of stability Classes F and G in fact requires the wind speed to be low and usually results in a frequency of stability Class F and G of approximately Am 15-25% of the time overall. The wind rose for Bellingham (see Figure VII-13) was modified to represent the probable distribution of stability Class F low velocity winds at March Point by the application of a scaling factor which would bring the overall proportion of Class F stability to 15% for this location. The necessity of these assumptions is unfortunate. We feel that the data available for Whidbey and Bellingham are insufficient for such an analysis, but in this instance the low volume of vessel traffic at March Point in fact renders most emissions impacts insignificant, as will be described following. It is possible to calculate a level of source strength required to result in violation of the state standard of 40 pphm for each of the three impact zones, as was done in the analysis of Port Angeles. The source strength can be compared with the emissions spectrum for each scenario and can be combined with the probability of wind orientation in order to yield an estimate of the number of hours per year of local concentrations in excess of the state standard. The data in Table VII-86 present the frequency estimates based upon a 2% sulfur content for tanker fuel. As VII-136 Arthur D Uttle- Inc FIGURE VII-13 FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF WINDS FROM 0 TO 3 KNOTS FOR STABILITY CLASSES D AND E AT BELLINGHAM, WASHINGTON N NNW NNE NW NE 1% WNW ENE W E WSW ESE SW SE SSW SSE S Source: Teknekron, 1976. VII-137 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-86 ACUTE AIR-QUALITY IMPACT MARCH POINT Hours/year S02 b % Sulfur fuel over standard for no violationo Vessel calls Fleet. Number of % Fully in Impact zone in Impact zone Hours/year Scenario per year _tX@ea berths occupied 4 2 3 1 2 3 high N0_2 1. Regional Supply A. No Restrictions 64.5 1 2 2 0 23@ 1 >3 2.2 >3 1-2 B. Restricted fleet ill R 2 6 0 3 2 >3 1.8 ' 2.4 1 II. Northern Tier A. Tanker Supply 64.5 1 2 2 0 2k 1 >3 2.2 >3 k B. Puget Spur 20 R 2 <1 --insignificant emissions impact-- III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 11 1 2 <1 --insignificant emissions impact-- IV. Supply via Trans Mountain 11 1 2 <1 --insignificant emissions impact-- UJ 00 a R = Restricted Vessel Size I = Intermediate Vessel Size b for fuel with 2% Sulfur Content c State 1 hour standard is 40 pphm d high NOX is 2.5 pphm over one hour does not correspond to applicable standard Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. XD db db may be expected, the relatively low emissions strength of the small vessel volume at March Point results in a low level of sulfur dioxide concentration. Only in impact Zone 2, where elevated terrain and fairly broad geographic extent combine to yield high potential ground level concentration, is there an air quality problem. The greatest impact is principally associated with a tanker restriction and complete regional supply by tanker which necessitates the maximum number of vessel calls per year. Such a situation could result in violation of the state standard, with as many as three hours per year of concentrations in excess of 40 pphm. In order to mitigate such an impact, it would be necessary to restrict tanker fuel to 1.8% sulfur content, at least under conditions of multiple vessels in port or for adverse meteorology. The other pollutants in tanker stack gases will cause no appreciable W problem in local air quality. The final column of Table VII-86 shows that high nitrogen oxides will be only rarely achieved for some scenarios. Other pollutants will have insignificant levels from tanker activity alone. The crude oil storage tanks associated with refinery use will essentially remain as at present. It is probable that there are frequent conditions leading to concentrations of reactive, non-methane hydrocarbons in excess of the state and federal 6-00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. standard. The tanks present at Shell and Texaco were not specifically examined with respect to violation of the standard. Also as noted in Chapter V, the non-methane hydrocarbon standard relates to a regional oxidant problem and it does not represent a local, acute air quality problem per se. (3) Regional Air Quality Impact. Average emissionsfrom crude oil transportation into March Point are presented in Table VII-87. The modest vessel activity results in correspondingly modest average emissions. It might be noted, however, that the smaller vessel size of the restricted fleet results in a greater tonnage of emissions per thousand barrels of crude oil throughput, but the low volume offsets this tendency. The magnitude of sulfur emissions is modest by comparison with other in- dustries in the area, particularly by comparison with the refineries themselves. Since present day emissions appear to cause only a minimal sulfur dioxide problem, it is likely that the continued contribution of tanker emissions associated with the major scenarios will in fact cause only minimal regional air quality impact. Hydrocarbon emissions from tanker purging or from onshore crude oil storage have a potential impact on regional oxidant formation. Monitoring data for the area are sparse and no oxidant information is presently available. Conditions suitable for the formation of photochemical oxidant certainly occur, but overall oxidant formation is probably low in the March Point vicinity, as was described for the Port Angeles vicinity. The region here, however, is slightly more uniformly and densely urbanized. There are other hydrocarbon sources, primarily area sources of petroleum product handling and vehicular emissions which may augment a plume of reacting hydrocarbons issuing from the March Point terminal tank farm. It is possible that the plume of reactants from March Point may impinge upon the communities of Mount Vernon or Bellingham and contribute to the ozone levels at those locations. VII-139 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-87 AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - MARINE TERMINAL MARCH POINT (tons/day) Pollutant so NO Hydrocarbons x x Particulates Fuel Purging Storage & Misc. Scenario I-A 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.385 Scenario I-B 0.682 0.476 1.114 0.034 1.785 4.349 Scenario II-A 1980 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.385 1985 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.385 1990 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.385 Scenario II-B 1980 0.120 0.084 0.020 0.006 0.315 2.851 1985 0.120 0.084 0.020 0.006 0.315 2.851 1990 0.120 0.084 0.020 0.006 0.315 2.851 Scenario III 1980 0.120 O@084 0.002 0.001 0.315 2.8 46 1985 0.120 0.084 0.002 0.001 0.315 2.846 1990 0.120 0.084 0.002 0.001 0.315 2.846 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-140 Arthur D Little, Inc The present hydrocarbon emissions from the Shell and Texaco re- fineries are far greater than the emissions from crude oil handling and storage alone. The continuation of tanker service to March Point repre- sents a small portion of the regional air basin burden for hydrocarbon and represents a correspondingly small potential increment in the oxidant .levels in the basin. From a statistical viewpoint, the oxidant experience for the region probably has a higher geometric mean than does the oxidant distribution described for Port Angeles. This is partially due to the slightly more favorable average conditions (insolation and lower wind speed) but largely due to the quantity of reactive organic gases already emitted into the basin. Since the oxidant distribution in most of the Puget Sound area would be expected to have a fairly large standard geometic division, it is quite likely that there are conditions at present with oxidant reaching near the federal and state 8 pphm level on several days in the year. At present, the monitoring network is sufficiently sparse that the occurrences are not noted. The project at March Point would result in a very small increment in both the magnitude and the frequency of high oxidant experience. All scenarios in this study induce little growth at March Point. Thus, there is an insignificant increment to the urban pollution@load contributed by vehicular activity of the population. e. Water Quality/Marine Biology (1) Impact Generators. An oil transshipment terminal located at March Point would result in oil release into the waters immediately surrounding Fidalgo Island in addition to the existing refinery discharge of oil and grease and runoff from the urban parts of Anacortes. The two sources of new oil release, operational spillage and in-port casualty spillage, would contribute similar amounts of spilled crude to the waters over a year's time (see Tables VII-88 and VII-89). As would be expected, the sources differ greatly in expected frequency of occurrence and in spill size. While casualty spills in port would be larger than operational spills, they would occur only once every 30 to 50 years at March Point, whereas operational spills would tend to occur on the order of once every 6 to 10 months. Although a larger spill, if uncontained and not cleaned up, would affect larger numbers of organisms, the potentially high fre- quency of exposure im@osed on the local biota by operational spills makes them the more significant impact generator over a period of time. Amounts of oil released into March Point/Anacortes vicinity waters by existing sources and by an oil transshipment terminal are shown in Table VII-90. Background oil release is composed not only of the discharges of the two local refineries, represented here by the maximum amount allowed under their NPDES permits, but also of the oil and oil products in urban runoff. According to Stan Springer of the Department of Ecology's South- west Region, the oil discharged from storm sewer outfalls of a small city after the first winter rain could approach the amount discharged by an oil refinery. VII-141 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-88 OPERATIONAL SPILLS AT MARINE TERMINAL MARCH POINT Throughput operational Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr I. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 170 (1) 1.16 315 B. Restricted Fleet 170 (R) 2.00 540 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 170 (1) 1.16 315 1985-1990 170 (1) 1.16 315 B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 1980 30 (R) 0.35 96 1985 30 (R) 0.35 96 1990 30 (R) 0.35 96 III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 30 (R) 0.35 96 1985 30 (R) 0.35 96 1990 30 (R) 0.35 96 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain 30 (1) 0.35 96 Pipeline (a) R restricted fleet, average tanker size is 86,700 Dwt I intermediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,300 Dwt L large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-142 Arthur D Little, Inia TABLE VII-89 CASUALTY SPILLS IN PORT -MARCH POINT Throughput Casualty Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr 1. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 0 0.0183 240 B. Restricted Fleet 0 0.0315 420 11. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 @400 (1) 0.0183 240 1985-1990 800 (L) 0.0183 240 B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 1980 690 (L) 0.0057 80 1985 1090 (L) 0.0057 80 1990 1250 (L) 0.0057 80 III. Trans-shipment at Cherry Point 1980 0 0.0057 80 1985 0 0.0057 80 1990 0 0.0057 80 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain Pipeline 0 0.0031 40 (a) R = restricted fleet, average tanker size is 86,700 Dwt I = intermediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,300 Dwt L = large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 90 VII-143 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-90 OIL DISCHARGE IN TERMINAL VICINITY MARCH POINT BACKGROUND lbs/da ]\g/l0da Urban Runoff 175 794 Refineries 153 694 (NPDES permit) a Texaco Texaco 190 862 Shell Shell 1556 TERMINAL Operational 52 Spills Casualty 40 Spills TOTAL 2442 a Permitted levels of daily discharge of oil grease averaged over one month. Includes ballast and storm water allocations for Arco and Texaco, based on average flows at Mobil refinery. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-144 Arthur D Little Inc. The four northern Washington refineries have allowed NPDES discharge rates ranging from 153 to 253 pounds per day; 175 pounds per day was chosen as an average rate of oil discharge due to Anacortes' urban runoff and general marine activity -- a non-point pollution source not monitored. It can be seen from Table VII-90 that the projected spill amounts at a March Point terminal are far less than the amounts currently discharged or running off into adjacent waters -- only 4% of the total amount released. To calculate the concentration of oil resulting from background and terminal releases, the amounts of oil discharged or spilled over a 10-day period were used. After 10 days, the original mass of oil would be weathered and dispersed. The 10-day amounts released are clearly over- estimated in that new water probably replaces oil-laden water in far less than 10 clays and the refineries appear to be discharging less than the amount allow;d in their permits. Furthermore, the amounts spilled from the terminal would usually be less since the "worst case" of Scenario I-B, with the highest crude throughput for March Point, was deliberately chosen. The water volume used to calculate the steady state or chronic oil concentrations with and without a March Point terminal is the zone of probable impact, the dark grey area on Figure VII-14. This area represents the confines within which oil spilled at March Point would most probably be located at the end of one day, based on net movements of winds and tides in this part of Puget Sound. The volume of this probable impact zone was calculated using the area and average depth, and the concentrations were calculated using this volume and the 10-day oil releases from background sources and terminal spillage. As Table VII-91 indicates, the concentration due to chronic oil release into the March Point-Anacortes waters is low, only 10 ppb with all sources added together. Most important, 96% of the chronic oil level is due to existing discharges. It should also be recalled that the actual concen- tration would probably be even lower since worst case conditions for refinery discharge, terminal spillage, and receiving water residence time were chosen. Even if the chronic oil concentration were 10 ppb as calculated, no portion of the biota of the receiving waters would suffer ill effects. The research results of Mironov (1970) show that even the most sensitive of plant or animal species, phytoplankton (microscopic plant life), do not show damage such as reduced cell division until exposed to 10 ppb of kerosene. Since kerosene is a constituent of the highly toxic volatile fraction of crude oil, the concentration of crude required to produce deleterious effects in phytoplankton would be substantially higher -- about 100,000 ppb, as found by LaCaze (1969). This concentration and the threshold concentrations for ill effects sustained by higher plants and animals are all much higher than the oil levels expected from chronic oil release with a terminal at March Point. Chronic oil release from J operational and in-port casualty spillage is thus not considered a major adverse impact on marine biota at March Point. 1.0 VII-145 Arthur D Little- Inc GUEMES ISLAND AY ANACORTES KARCH POINT Q) DECEPTION PASS C:@ 0 2 4 6 Operational Oil Spills at Marine Terminal M1 km A 0 3 6 9 FA Possible impact zone SOURCES: NORTH Arthur D. Little, Inc. Probable impact zone FIGURE VII-14 POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE IMPACT ZONE: MARCH POINT Arthur D Little- Inc 4 VII-146 TABLE VII-91 CHRONIC CONCENTRATION IN PROBABLE IMPACT ZONE: MARCH POINT Scenario IB a Background 9.13 TERMINAL Operational 0.202 Spills Casualty Spills 0.156 %Background of Total 96 TOTAL 9.49 (ppb) a 2 refineries + urban run-off (Anacortes) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-147 Arthur D Little Inc In contrast to the chronic concentration present in the probable im- pact zone, the concentration on the water's surface immediately following any spill would be high. In addition, droplets of crude would be whipped into an emulsion and spread throughout the water column by wave action. Exposure of local biota to the mechanical (surface coating) and acute chemical toxicity effects of freshly spilled crude would occur on the average of every 6 to 10 months from operational spillage as well as every 30 to 50 years due to casualties at a March Point terminal. While the casualty spills would be larger, both spill types would be located within the possible impact zone in one day's time, after which the oil would be either cleaned up or further dispersed by winds and tides. Little population growth is sustained by any of the scenarios addressed in this study in the March Point vicinity. Current plans for Anacortes to upgrade the treatment plant will certainly offset the addi- tional load of domestic wastewater contributed by induced growth. Similarly, any increment in storm water runoff or processed wastes from increased marine terminal activity are small by comparison with the level of discharge from the existing refinery activities. (2) -Impact Receptors. The "possible" impact zone represents the maximum mobility of the center of mass of an oil slick of any size origin- ating from March Point, based on the net movements of local winds and tides in the span of one day. While the spilled oil would not fill up the entire zone (the light grey area in Figure VII-14), the slick could be located anywhere within it with equal probability. Thus, all organisms inhabiting the possible impact zone must be considered at risk to the acute effects of freshly spilled oil if a terminal is located at March Point. (See Figures VIII-2, VIII-4, VIII-6, VIII-8, and VIII-11 for the locations of the most important of this area's marine resources, as com- piled in the Marine Atlas published by the State of Washington's Department of Ecology.) Because both the probable and possible impact zones are centered on one side of productive Padilla Bay, a substantial proportion (about 60%) of Padilla Bay's crab resource would be affected by oil spilled from March Point. This represents a small but not insignificant proportion of the total crab resource area of northern Puget Sound. Following a March Point spill, these crabs could be killed directly by sinking masses of oil, or otherwise would very likely suffer acute chemical toxicity and long-term chemical toxicity (such as abnormal feeding and mating behavior) through contact with the low molecular-weight fraction of crude emulsified in the water column. In addition, crabs that survived would most probably be tainted and therefore unmarketable. The shrimp resource area just west of Fidalgo Island in Burrows Bay would not be affected by oil spilled from March Point under most wind and tide conditions; no scallops would be affected. Of the intertidal shellfish, only very small clam areas, regionally insignificant, would be destroyed or tainted by March Point oil spills; it should be noted that the oyster bed in lower Fidalgo Bay apparently would be missed under all but anomalous weather and tide conditions along with a very large spill. This applies also to the small herring spawning ground area in the southwest corner of Padilla Bay. Arthur D Little- Inc VII-148 Small, regionally insignificant but possible locally significant, areas of both sport and commercial salmon fishing lie within the March Point zone of possible impact, as do very small areas of sport bottom fishing and small areas of commercial bottom fishing that may be locally important. Although finfish such as these can suffer surface-coating effects of spilled oil or become tainted and thus unmarketable, they are also mobile and, unlike the shellfish and intertidal resources, can swim away from oil contamination until it clears. The possibility of fishery disruption and temporary tainting problems exists because of the persistence of oil droplets in the water column and the ingestion of oil contaminated food by the desirable fish. However, the fishery areas affected would be so small that these impacts would be insignificant in the whole of northen Puget Sound. The two most heavily impacted marine resources in the March Point terminal vicinity would be the eelgrass beds and waterfowl areas of Padilla Bay. About half of the Bay's eelgrass bed area risk the damaging effects of oil spilled at March Point -- direct damage to the leaves or irreversible, indirect damage through the root system could cause the decline of the outer parts of these beds. Loss of eelgrass beds would be a highly adverse impact since they provide a productive habitat offering food, resting grounds, and sheltered waters for the breeding and other critical activities of a large variety of fish, crustaceans, and waterfowl. Padilla Bay's eelgrass beds also represent a large proportion of the eelgrass bed re- source of northern Puget Sound. The only other large eelgrass area is in Skagit Bay which would not receive March Point oil. Northern Puget Sound's largest continuous waterfowl area is in Padilla Bay; about 40-50% of this area lies within the zone of possible impact of oil spilled at March Point. Waterfowl are among the organisms most sen- sitive to all the effects of oil: surface coating causes loss of insulation and buoyancy properties of feathers and usually death; chemical toxicity results upon eating contaminated fish and other food; and long-term, population reducing effects such as abnormal mating and reproductive behavior can also result. Decline of the waterfowl areas affected would very likely be permanent if spills from March Point reached them with the frequency expected for operational spills (once every 6 to 10 months). The likelihood of decline in the outer portion of this waterfowl area is quite high since it lies within the zone of probable impact, the area within which March Point oil spills would most certainly exert their effects. Possible dredging by Shell for pier extension to allow berthing of deeper draft tankers and the construction of new pipeline on a trestle from berth to shore will disturb the sediments and increase turbidity in this portion of the Bay. Resources and resource activities which would be disturbed by such activities in this portion of the Bay include oyster beds, crabs, herring spawning, and feeding by juvenile salmon and steelhead. The dredging disturbance is temporary -- limited to the construction period -- so that these resources should be able to return to their pre-construction ol population levels. After construction, movement of the deep draft vessels using the new berths will markedly increase turbulence in their wake which could mechanically injure small fish or other forms of life concentrated for feeding in the rich, shallow mudflats of the Bay. VII-149 Arthur D Little- Inc 3. Cherry Point-W@hatcom County The greatest level of activity at Cherry Point would come from the transshipment project such as that considered under Scenario III in this study. The crude oil throughput may range from 150,000 B/D for transship- ment associated with a small project such as the Trans Mountain alternating reversal (yo-yo) to as much as 800,000 B/D associated with a new pipeline such as the Northern Tier Pipeline presently proposed to serve Port Angeles. In other instances, the activity at Cherry Point. is limited to ser- vice of the existing Atlantic Richfield and Mobil oil refineries. The maximum activity under regional supply alone would be with a tanker restriction (Scenario I-B). Tanker activity would be sharply curtailed if a superport at Port Angeles were to serve refinery needs via the Puget Spur or if it were,possible to receive crude supply via the Trans Mountain Pipeline once again. a. Land Use (1) Direct Impacts. Expanded onshore facilities at Cherry Point are involved in Scenarios I, II-A, and III (I-regional supply; II-A-Northern Tier at Port Angeles, no Puget Spur; III-transshipment at Cherry Point). As can be seen from Table VII-92, Scenarios I and II-A have identical re- quirements for a minimal 30-acre addition to existing surge/storage and associated facilities; Scenario III requires 70 additional acres of on- shore land for the Phase 1 (1980) facilities, and a maximum of 180 acres for the Phase 3 (1990) proposed throughput. The 30-acre minimum figure given for Scenarios I and II-A assumes that the two existing refineries at Cherry Point (Mountain View industrial district) in Whatcom County have enough surge/storage facilities to handle a tanker delivered through- put of 150,000 B/D. The 170,000 B/D throughput defined for Scenarios I and II-A represents an addition of 20,000 B/D, requiring a single tank plus pad and dike (total 10 acres) and possibly some additional 20 acres of accessory facilities (access roads, pump station). With this small increment in throughput, the latter may be minimal. Assuming this land requirement is split between the two Mountain View district refineries, Atlantic Richfield and Mobil, each will need to develop 15 acres. At present, Atlantic Richfield has undeveloped holdings of 150 acres largely interspersed with and surrounding the developed por- tion of its plant; 15 acres represent 10% of this, or an increase of less than 4% in the developed portion. Three hundred out of Mobil's holdings to the south of Atlantic Richfield are undeveloped. Fifteen acres represent only 5% of the undeveloped portion. In both cases, the land to be occupied by the new facilities is already owned by an oil refinery and designated as primary industrial in the county comprehensive plan. Atlantic Richfield also owns a parcel north of Grandview Road which is designated as select industrial reserve in the comprehensive plan, which means that at such time as it became necessary to industrially develop the parcel, the industry should be nonpolluting and compatible with surrounding uses. A tank farm would probably be Arthur D Uttle- Inc VII-150 TABLE VII-92 INDUSTRIAL SITE LAND CONSUMPTION ONSHORE FACILITIES - CHERRY POINT Crude Throughput New Tankage b (1000 B/D) New Tankage Land Required Scenario 1980 1985 1990 Required (Acres) I. Regionaly Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 170 170 170 yes 30C B. Restricted Fleet 170 170 170 yes 30c II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 170 170 170 yes 30 B Regional Supply by Puget 20 20 20 no - Spur Pipeline III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 460 660 1110 yes 70 - 180 IV. Regional Supply Trans Mountain 20 20 20 no Pipeline (a) Onshore facilities include surge/storage (tank farm), pump stations and access roads (b) Assumptions: 625,000 bbl/tank Ratio tank capacity: throughput = IC:l 10 acres/ tank + 200 acres for access roads, pump stations etc. (c) Existing tankage assumed adequate for 150,000 bbl/day throughput Source: [email protected] D. Little, Inc. VII-151 Arthur D Little, Inc acknowledged as fulfilling those criteria, but the minimal new development can easily be accommodated within Atlantic Richfield lands which are al- ready zoned primary industrial. Thus, the onshore land use impacts of Scenarios I and II-A are quite small; no land taking in conflict with adjoining uses or local land use planning policies are involved. In Scenario III, the much greater new land requirements for additional surge/storage needed in accordance with an oil transshipment proposal for Cherry Point can still be met with only minor land use impacts. While the immediate backup area of shoreside access to the marine terminal above the bluff is only 35 acres, this is adequate for a pump station plus access road which consumes only a few acres. The balance of the maximum 180-acre surge/storage could be located just inland on Standard Oil's main 900-acre parcel, also designated as primary industrial in the Whatcom County Com- prehensive Plan but presently completely undeveloped. The land would have to be obtained from Standard Oil by the Pipeline Company. In'all, the onshore facilities of Scenario I and II-A represent less than a 1% increase in the total industrial acreage in Whatcom County. The facilities of Scenario III represent a 2-5% increase (1980 versus 1990 phase) in the lands presently in primary industrial use. The project areas directly within the coastal zone at the Cherry Point industrial site are the bluff and backup area at Cherry Point, owned by Standard Oil, which could be used for a pump station and partial surge/ storage site in Scenario III. This entire' stretch of shoreline between Bay Road and Slater Road has been designated conservancy in the Whatcom County Shoreline Master Program. The site of the marine terminal immediately offshore has been designated aquatic in the Shoreline Master Program. According to the Coastal Zone Management Act and the county Shoreline Master Program, multiple uses of the shoreline in conservancy areas should be strongly encouraged. The overall intensity of development or use of these areas should be maintained low and the areas should be protected from fluses which require substantial alterations to the area's natural character, (those which alter) its topography and land-water edge should be directed to 'urban' or 'rural' areas." The possible project facilities at Cherry Point within the coastal zone will contain sufficiently small acreage that they will probably not conflict with the stated policies of the Act for protection of conservancy areas. 1W The purpose of the aquatic designation is to encourage and protect appropriate multiple uses or dominant uses in limited areas of navigable or open waters and to preserve limited water resources, tidelands, and shorelands from encroachment. In recognition of this purpose, the follow- ing policies were adopted: (1) "that development should be sharply limited to those uses which are compatible with conservation of area resources including water, fish, and wildlife," and (2) "offshore development should be limited to those areas which are truly water surface dependent or which provide broad and substantial compensating benefits to the community or region." VII-152 Arthur D Little- Inc Marine terminal construction requires minor dredging and other mechanical disturbance of aquatic areas but no filling or irreversible disturbance is involved. Therefore, marine terminal construction should not conflict with the stated policies for aquatic designated areas, particularly since an oil tanker terminal is a water dependent use. Oil transportation by tanker or tanker activities at the terminal which result in oil spillage are the most significant,source of impact which conflicts with Coastal Zone Management Act policies to preserve aquatic areas and shorelines of statewide significance. The latter in- clude Birch Bay from Birch Point to Point Whitehorn and the Nooksack River estuary as well as all other marine waters, water column and beds seaward of the extreme low tide within Whatcom County. The risk of oil spill is sufficiently high in Scenario III that the resulting impact on aquatic life may interfere with state policy to "protect the resources and ecological systems of shorelines of statewide significance." Lake Whatcom, northeast of Bellingham, has also been designated a shoreline of statewide significance. Possible further residential develop- ment along the shore of this lake which could be stimulated by population growth in the Bellingham area from Scenarios III, I-A, and II-A could also potentially conflict with the policies for nonconsuming uses of this shoreline. (2) Indirect Impacts. The size and demographic characteristics of the new population generated by the direct and indirect employment provided in the various oil development scenarios for Port Angeles are summarized in Tables VII-93 through VII-95. Scenarios I-A, II-A, and III will have popu- lation growth impacts on Whatcom County communities, but only Scenario III will have significant impacts as defined by Chapter VI. The peak con- struction year in Scenario III is 1979; the new population generated in Whatcom County by this level of petroleum development activity will have significant impacts on the communities of Bellingham, Ferndale, and Blaine and on the county as a whole, as defined by the significance criterion of this analysis (see Table VII-96). The allocation of households given in data from the Whatcom County oil refineries on the residence of new employees at Cherry Point suggests that 82% of the new households in the area would reside in Bellingham, 8% in Ferndale, and 5% each in Blaine and other Chatcom County (mostly un- incorporated). The indirect employment residence is expected to have approximately the same distribution as the direct employment residence since the indirect employees will largely serve the direct employees and their families where they live (store clerks, teachers, school staff), and may also tend to show similar residence preferences for the same reason. The high proportion of all new households expected to reside in Bellingham yields a significant impact in Bellingham for all of the years 1978-82 of Scenario III. The two construction years (1978 and 1979) are reflected in significant countywide growth impacts. As shown in Table VII-95, the peak year would represent an influx of of 695 new households into Whatcom County, of which 569 would locate in Bellingham, 56 in Ferndale, and about 35 each in Blaine and the remainder Arthur D Little Inc VII-153 TABLE VII-93 DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - DIRECT EMPLOYMENT - CHERRY POINT Location of Households a Employees Total Persons Wages per at New per Other House- Increase as % of Cherry Growth House- House- Total Fern- Whatcom hold 1975 County Population Scenario Point Component holds hold , Persons Bellingham dale Blaine County 119Z6 $) (86,200) IA Regional-Unrestricted 19 13b 13 3.8 49 11 1 0 1 $27,270c .057% IIA Northern Tier As in IA IIB N. Tier w/Puget Spur 0 III Transshipment/Cherry Point 194 136 136 3.8 517 111 11 7 7 0.6 % Construction Peaks IA 1978 55 39d 11 3.8 42 9 1 0 1 $,7,,g,e 0.049% 1979 44 31 9 34 7 1 0 1 0.039% IB Regional-Restricted None < IIA As in IA H It 111 1978 490 98 98 3.8 372 80 8 5 5 0.043% 1979 448 90 90 3.8 340 74 7 4 5 0.039% IV Regional-Trans J., Mountain None Total (Permanent + Peaks) IA 1978 74 52 24 91 20 2 0 2 0.11% IIA 1979 63 44 22 83 18 2 0 2 0.10%% 111 1978 684 234 234 889 191 19 12 12 1.03% 1979 642 228 226 857 185 18 11 12 0:99% Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. A 6 dh TABLE VII-94 D240GRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS - INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT - CHERRY POINT oymen@t Location of Householdsa Persons Increase in Wage per 1976 population as % Earners Household Other House- of 1975 Whatcom per Scenario KmkI Growth b Persons c Avera e House- Fern- Whatcom hold d County Household oyees Proportion jupprted_ Z! 9 L761 Ids Bellingham dale Blaine Co Income Population (1976) IA Rpgional-Unrestricted 41 12 29 2.67 11 9 1 0 1 $15,563 .034% 1.46 IIA Northern Tier As in IA 118 N. Tier w/Puget Spur 0 III Transshipment/Cherry 415 125 294 2.67 110 90 9 5 6 $15.563 .034% 1.46 Point Construction Peaks IA 1978 120 36 85 2.67 32 26 3 1 2 $15,563 1979 179 54 127 48 39 5 3 2 1980 81 24 57 21 17 2 1 1 1981 83 25 59 22 18 2 1 0 1982 29 9 21 8 7 1 0 0 18 None IIA As in IA IIB Minor 111 1978 1050 315 743 278 228 22 14 14 $15,563 0.86% 1979 1694 508 1199 449 368 36 22 22 1.39% 1980 441 132 312 117 96 9 6 6 0.36% 1981 359 IDS 255 96 79 8 5 5 0.3 % 1982 167 so 118 44 36 4 2 2 0.14% yotal_jPe-4nent_ and ..@on struction Peakj Location of Households Persons Total Other Totals % of Whatcom Co. Scenario Supporte Households Belling.@am [email protected] Blaine Whatcom Co. 1975 Population IA Regional-Unrestricted 1978 114 43 35 4 1 3 0.13% 1979 156 59 48 6 3 3 0.18% 1980 86 32 26 3 1 2 0.10% 1981 88 33 27 3 1 1 0.10% 1982 50 19 16 2 0 1 D.58% III Transshipment/Cherry Point 1978 1037 388 318 31 19 20 1.2% 1979 1493 559 458 45 27 28 1.7% 1980 606 227 186 18 11 12 0.7% 1981 549 206 169 17 10 11 .64% 1982 412 154 126 13 7 8 .48% LO-0 _tn 0 tts- a Same distribution as for Direct. Distribotion is 82% Bellingham, 8% Ferndale, 5% Blaine, b 5% Other Whatcom, Co. (based on industry data). See Table (VI c30% of Indirect Employment is In-migration d2.67 is 1975-76 for Bellingham and Ferndale Household Income is persons per household x per capita personal Income (Whatcom Co. . average) (See Table V11- ) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc Vll-155 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VII-95 POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD TOTALS - CHERRY POINT PERMANENT DIRECT + ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (LAND USE IMPACTS) Location of Households Persons Total Scenario Employees Supported Households Bellingham Ferndale Blaine Other Whatcom IA Regional-Unrestrict0 1978 180 163 56 46 5 1 4 1979* 239 205 72 59 1 3 4 1980 141 135 45 37 4 1 3 1981 143 137 46 38 4 1 2 1982 89 99 29 27 3 0 2 III Transshipment/Cherry Point 1978 1244 1554 524 429 42 26 27 1979 2303 2010 695 569 56 34 35 1980 1050 1123 363 297 29 18 19 1981 968 1066 342 280 28 17 18 1982 776 929 290 237 24 14 15 GRAND TOTAL ALL DIRECT + ALL INDIRECT EMPLOYMENT (INFRASTRUCTURE IMPACTS) IA 1978 235 205 67 55 6 1 5 1979 283 239 81 66 8 3 5 1980 122 135 45 37 4- 1 3 1981 124 137 46 38 4 1 2 .1982 170 99 32 27 3 0 2 III 1978 1734 1926 622 509 50 31 32 1979 2751 2350 785 643 63 38 40 1980 856 1123 363 297 29 18 19 1981 774 1066 342 280 28 17 18 1982 582 929 290 237 24 14 15 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. TABLE VII-96 SIGNIFICANCE MATRIX LAND USE AND INFRASTRUCTURE - CHERRY POINT Significant Scenario III Transshipment/ Cherry Point Community Unincorporated All County Bellingham Ferndale Blaine County 1978 x x 1979 x x x x 1980 x 1981 x 1982 x Ul X SIGNIFICANCE Growth equivalent to 1 year's average annual growth or more - Not significant by this definition Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. of the west county. With this distribution of households, this amount of growth is equivalent to less than a year's historic growth in unincorporated Whatcom County, but three-and-one-quarter year's average growth in Bellingham. This growth would be expected to occur in prime areas for residential de- velopment, identified previously in Table VII-44 as northeast between Interstate 5 and Lake Whatcom, the south central valley area, and southwest along the Bay. The total land converted is nearly 300 acres, and represents nearly 6% of the remaining residential acreage within the city limits (2.5% increase in existing residential land use). The total acreage con- verted is 340 acres in all the affected Whatcom County areas under Scenario III in 1979. While this is significant land use conversion for a single project in the City of Bellingham and represents a sharp influx for a single year, it is not a severe impact and is consistent with the overall low-density residential development pattern of the city today. The city is Planning and Development office reported that Bellingham has a population holding capacity of 150,000 according to the 1967 Comprehensive Plan. The maximum scenario/year would add only 1648 permanent new residents to the present population of 42,100, which would still allow over 100,000 persons according to the 1967 holding capacity. Land use conversion in the city would take residentially zoned lands that are not in intensive use at present for either timber production or agriculture. Land use conversion in the other affected cities and the unincorporated county must be considered minor, even under the maximum year of Scenario III. b. Infrastructure (Secondary) Population Growth Impacts. As described previously, Scenario III (transshipment at Cherry Point) is the only source of significant population growth impacts in Whatcom County. The peak construction year and peak influx of new population to the Cherry Point/Whatcom County area is 1979 (see Tables VII-9 3 through VII-95 and VII-97). As shown in Table VII-95, and as discussed in the project impact characterization (Chapter VI), the total influx of families with demands for new services will be 785, but the proportion making a significant contribution to the local property tax base will be only 89% of this (695 households). At the weighted average income given for these 695 households of $17,685, the affordable housing price is $39,300. The 1975 indicated ratio for property assessed valuation. (0.57) yields an assessed valuation for tax purposes of $22,400 per dwelling unit for the new population. The total market value of the housing and total assessed valuation for property taxation is given in Table VII-98. (1) School Impacts. Impacts Qn local school districts are in many ways the most important infrastructure impacts of new growth for several reasons: (a) schools are among the most costly of community services, and demand a high proportion of property tax revenues, (b) education is important and there is uniform community concern among communities with a high pro- portion of young families that the children be provided with adequate school facilities offering quality educational programs, and (c) schooling requires broad community support. Arthur D Uttle- Im. VII-158 TABLE VII-97 LAND USE MAXIMUM IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES - CHERRY POINT Growth Total New Historical New Existing Equi- % % off MAXIMUM IMPACT' Pers6ns Total as growth House- Communi- valence increase Remaining SCENARIO III (Direct perm-. % of 1975 rate holds ty House- at in residen- Residential Transshipment/Cherry anent and all County % in com- holds % Histori- Acreage tial Acreage Point Indirect) Population (average) munity (1976) _ Increase cal Rate Consumed Acreage Consumed year 1979 2010 +2.33% 1.6% Bellingham 1.1% 569 15775 3.6% 3.27 y. 285 2.53 5.7 Ferndale 6.2 56 1161 4.8 0.77 y. 22 N N Blaine 2.5 34 848 4.0 1.6 y. 14 N N Unincorporated a Whatcom 1.5 35 13916 0.25 0.17 y. 19 0.09 N '69-5 Ln N Not possible to determine Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. =r TABLE VII-98 INFRASTRUCTURE VALUE OF HOUSING - CHERRY POINT Market Value of Housing (Project Component) (weighted average) Assessed Valuation Per Househol-d Total of Housing School District $ ($ Thousands) (Project Component) Bellingham $39,300 $22,361.7 22,400 12,745.6 Ferndale 2,200.8 1,254.4 Blaine 1,336.2 7-61 .6 CD Other Whatcom 1,375.5 784.0 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. il Ilk 41 The impacts of the maximum scenario, peak year (111, 1979) on the Bellingham, Ferndale, and Blaine school districts are given in Tables VII-99 and VII-100. The enrollment and financial impacts on the other western Whatcom County school districts, including Meridian, cannot be allocated since it is not possible to locate this growth component on a school district specific basis. Nonetheless, the total number of students contributed to all of these districts is quite small -- 35 pupils at all grade levels K-12, the same as for Blaine. The impact of new enrollment on school districts depends strongly on the concurrent addition to district assessed valuation and hence on fiscal contribution of the growth. Owing to the complex method of school funding in Washington, there is not a one-to-one relationship between the impact of increased enrollment and the counterbalancing effect of increased assessed valuation, but if the two increases are proportionately the same this is an indication of the ability of the new growth to pay its way. In all three districts, the contribution of this level of growth to enrollment far exceeds the contribution to the district's assessed valuation. In the Bellingham school district, the enrollment contribution is two-and- one-half times the assessed valuation contribution, three times in the Ferndale district, and 9.4 times in the Blaine district. A comparison of Table VII-100 with Table VII-55 shows that the market value/pupil of the new enrollment is significantly lower than the existing market value/pupil in all three districts -- 22% to 80% lower. Thus, the average wealth of the new population appears to be lower than the existing population of these districts. Correspondingly, the lower tax revenue per pupil con- tributed (Table VII-100) is also 26-66% lower than the existing district contribution per pupil in all three districts. This difference is more apparent than real because of the present industrial contribution to the school tax base which adds revenue, but doe3 not increase enrollment. The enrollment contribution is made more or less significant, depend- ing on the past enrollment history and the capacity remaining to serve new students. The greatest increase in enrollment (6.8%) will be in the Bellingham district which has had an historical decline in enrollment over the last five years of 0.8% per year, average, but even at its present enrollment level it still lacks permanent facilities to serve 732 of its 8700 students (Tables VII-50 and VII-51). Bellingham district has recently passed a $4.2 million bond issue to construct new schools to alleviate this shortage and presumably will receive matching state funds of at least 33% (excluding land cost). Some of these facilities should be completed by early 1979, but the influx of nearly 600 additional students in one year will strain even the expanded system. The Bellingham district presently has over $7 million in excess bond- ing capacity at the legal limit of 51% of district market value. The project growth market value contribution further increases the bonding capacity of the Bellingham district by $1.1,million. If this were trans- lated through the passage of bond issues into building revenues, it could pay for 24,300 of the required 65,250 square feet of new classroom space required to serve the new student contribution of 37% (excluding land cost). (See Table VII-100.) Depending on the relative wealth of the Bellingham VII-161 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VII-99 SCHOOL IMPACTS - FACILITIES AND ENROLLMENT - CHERRY POINT MAXIMUM IMPACT YEAR/SCENARIO 1979 Total Capacity Enrollment % Increase remaining New Teachers or School age child- New students Including in 1976 before project Classrooms required Community School District Households ren per household generated Project Enrollment (Pupils) Elementary Secondary Bellingham BeTlingham 185 Dir. 1.58 292 9258 6.75% -732 12 11 458 Ind. 0.64 293 Ferndale Ferndale 18 Dir. 1.58 28 3752 1.5% -381 1 1 45 Ind. 0.64 29 57 Blaine Blaine 11 Dir. 1.58 17 1202 2.9% 2 1 1 27 Ind. 0.64 17 34 Other Whatcom cannot be allocated Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 0 TABLE VII-100 SCHOOL IMPACT - FISCAL AND CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT - CHERRY POINT MAXIMUM IMPACT YEAR/SCENARIO 1979 Space and Land Requirement Assessed Local Valuation Project Property Elementary Secondary Increase Square Total % Increase Market Tax % Difference in Footage Project in District Value revenue from average Square Ft. Acres Square Ft. Acres Bonding paid for Contribution Assessed per per local revenue Classroom School Classroom School Capacity @ $46/ School District ($ Thousandsl Valuation Pupil Pupil per pupil Space land Space Land ($) Thousands SF Bellingham $12,745.6 2.8% $38,223 $351 -25.6% 24,300 a 40,950 13 $1,118.09 24,306 Ferndale 1,254.4 0.48 38,610 312 -48.0% 2,340 5 4,030 10 110.4 2,392 Blaine 761.6 0.31 39,300 296 -66.2 1,408 5 2,387 10 66.81 1,452 Other Whatcom cannot be allocated Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. =r district compared to all other Washington state districts, state funds could cover from one-half to all of the remaining construction cost. if school site land acquisition is also required, the cost of the 21 acres of land needed at the current facilities planning standard would range from $42,000 ($2,000/acre) to $315,000 ($15,000/acre), the going price for undeveloped residential land in Bellingham. With land cost included, the new families could pay for only 7400 to 23,400 square feet of the new classroom space required. The Ferndale school district has been strained in recent years due to an annual growth rate in enrollment of 3.3% per year, which has left it in 1976 with a capacity deficit of 381 pupils. In this context, the peak year growth contributed by oil industry direct and indirect employ- ment would be less than half of the recently experienced annual growth. The Ferndale district passed a $3.8 million bond issue in 1974 which should soon result in a capacity increase large enough to accommodate the exist- ing deficit as well as the project growth component. The incremental bonding capacity contributed by the growth itself would pay for only 2400 of the 4400 square feet of new classrooms required (55%) and only 1750 square feet (40%) if land cost (15 acres) is included (Table VII-100). The Blaine district is an extremely wealthy district, in terms of its assessed valuation per pupil,' and is presently at capacity enrollment (Table VII-51). It passed a 1974 bond issue of $0.51 million which should provide a sufficient increase in capacity to accommodate the minor growth contribution from the maximum scenario growth impact (34 students). (See Table VII-99.) (2) Water Supply. The addition of 63 new households or 155 new people und er Scenario 11-B in 1979 would represent a service population increase of about 4%. While this increas'e would not tax Ferndale's filtration system (adequate until about 1982), it may serve to slightly shorten the time before further plant expansion is needed. Blaine's system of eig4@ wells also serves the surrounding region; the addition of 93 new persons to Blaine would represent only a 2% increase in the wells' total service populati'On of 4 200. No plans exist for expansion and this slight increase should not require it. Under Scenario III, the maximum population increase of 1925 persons (1979) or 643 households in Bellingham would create an incremental demand for 0.37 MGD of drinking water assuming summer demand of 190 GPCD. This is a 3.9% increase in district consumption and represents only 1.5% of the capacity of the water filtration plant. At present consumption rates, the plant has the capacity to serve an additional 76,300 persons. Thus, tA ,under most conditions the population increment attributable to the maximum oil scenario at Cherry Point will not have a significant impact on the Bellingham water supply. VII-164 Arthur D Little- Inc During periods of peak demand and low flow to the degree to which the present capacity of the total system is strained, any additional popula- tion growth will place more demand on an already strained system. The Scenario III population growth will also increase the daily demand in peak periods by 3.9%, and will thus consume the storage capacity of Lake Whatcom slightly faster during the peak demand,months. Scenarios I-A and II-A at Cherry Point will have only one-tenth the population increase of Scenario III and cannot be considered to significantly affect the Bellingham water supply. (3) Wastewater. Since Ferndale's sewage treatment plant is now operating over design capacity, an increase of 155 in the service popu- lation under Scenario III in 1979 may pose some capacity problems for the system. Although the 0.3 MGD plant is experiencing no problems at present, a 5% increase in service population may cause capacity overload, and may be the stimulus needed to elicit funds for expansion and upgrading currently being considered. The addition of 93 new people to Blaine in 1979 would probably not tax the capacity of the sewage treatment system as a new upgraded system will then be in operation in Blaine. This growth will consume only about 0.9% of the plant's 1 MGD capacity. Under Scenario III, the addition of 643 households (1925 persons) to the City of Bellingham will increase municipal wastewater flow by 0.19 MGD (a 17% increase) at current wastewater generation rates per capita. Thus, the average low flow (i.e., wastewater flow only, excluding storm water inflow) would increase from 4 to 4.19 MGD out of the existing plant design capacity of 18 MGD. The trend in Bellingham is to sewer all new construction; hence, it. is assumed that all new hosuing that resulted from population in-migration due to oil development would be sewered. The increase attributable to Scenario III is significant, but it would not strain the capacity of the existing facilities. However, the city already has a problem complying with federal water quality standards since the present plant provides only primary treatment. Therefore, in- cremental wastewater flow even within the design capacity of the present system will contribute further to water quality problems in Puget Sound in the vicinity of the outfall. The plant's outfall was recently moved to Post Point on Bellingham Bay to mitigate water quality problems associated with a low assimilative capacity of the water at the former outfall. Scenarios I-A and II-A at Cherry Point would have about one-tenth the impact of Scenario III. Thus, they would add 0.019 MGD to the current flow, or a 1.7% increase which is not significant given the present system capacity. (4) Solid Waste. Solid waste is dealt with on a county basis and is changing from the open dumps presently in use to a comprehensive system of containers and large central sanitary landfills. Since this new system with an increased waste handling capacity is planned for the near future, solid waste generation by the small numbers of new people should not pose any problems for the system. Arthur D Little Inc VTT-1 AS The maximum scenario impact year contribution to the Bellingham population (Scenario III in 1979, transshipment at Cherry Point) would add 643 households (1925 persons) to the city. This would represent a 4.1% increase in the present service population of the thermal reduction plant where the city's waste is currently incinerated. Based on the data supplied by the solid waste director for the plant, a 10% increase in service population could be accommodated before new capacity would have to be added so that the Scenario III population increase alone will not necessitate this expansion. Collection is financed by user fees so that growth should pay for the incremental service it demands. C. Terrestrial Biology As described under land use impacts and given in Table VII-92, expan- sion of existing onshore facilities (pump station, surge/storage, access roads) will be required under Scenarios I, II-A, and III. Under Scenarios I and II-A only a minimum of 30 acres of new land would have to be consumed, evenly split between the undeveloped portions of the holdings of Mobil and Atlantic Richfield. Scenario III could consume between 70 and 180 acres of completely undeveloped holdings similar to those of Standard Oil -- less than five acres at the bluff at Cherry Point for a pump station and access road and the major surge/storage facility inland and to the north. The existing vegetation of all of these various parcels of open land, as described under-environmental setting, is a mosaic of about 50% grazed and fallow pasture-grassland and about 50% early second-growth mixed coniferous/deciduous forest. The Cherry Point bluff site is 35 acres of open meadow with scattered young.trees, with a mixture of trees and shrubs on the face of the bluff. The terrestrial biology impact of the conversion of even the maximum 180 acres to intensive industrial use is small in both a regional and a local sense. This acreage represents 20% of the Standard Oil parcel and clearing it will constitute habitat loss for a moderate amount of local wildlife, as well as the probable destruction of at least several hundred individual small rodents and other small mammals and reptiles which are probably not mobile enough to leave the area. 'If construction takes place Am in the nesting seasons, resident nesting birds may be lost from populations or suffer reproductive failure if they are unable to take up nesting territory at another location. These losses will not effect the status of these species of even of local populations if the species are common or abundant in the area generally. The two habitat types, early succession pasture-grassland and second- growth forest in different stages of maturity, are both extremely common in the local area and in the region. While 180 acres represent 20% of the Standard Oil parcel, it is a far smaller proportion (less than 1%) of all such lands in the Mountain View district west of Ferndale and on a regional scale,represents only 0.04% of all the open space lands in Whatcom County (agriculture, timber, and rural/non-farm combined). These two habitat types, particularly the forest lands, have significant ecological value if the forest is over 50 to 100 years old, and moderate to high VII-166 Arthur D tittle- Inc wildlife value since they are utilized by many species but they are not known to have some particular richness or unusual assemblage of species that makes them unique or sensitive habitats. These lands are valuable in the sense that they are a larger area of contiguous open lands than smaller pockets of such vegetation closer to the low-density urbanization spreading westward from Ferndale. The Standard Oil parcel is one of the largest remaining contiguous parcels of open space in this area with heavy industry to the north and south, and resi- dential urbanization pressure moving west out of Ferndale and south out of Birch Bay. The larger a contiguous piece of open space, the more likely it is to harbor threatened or endangered species. Several species with poor population status which are known to occur or have occurred in western Whatcom County include the endangered California condor, peregrine falcon, Peale's peregrine falcon, and the potentially threatened northern bald eagle, spotted owl, and pileated woodpecker. Of these species, none has been reported to occur specifically on or near the proposed sites for on- shore facilities. The only species which may also breed in this locality is the northern bald eagle. A survey of the entire coastal district of north Wha.tcom County might reveal that one or more of these species is at least a seasonal resident of the area. If this is the case, the con- version of a 180-acre parcel of open land which is suitable habitat for the species is more serious. Many species of now threatened or potentially threatened species have suffered their most serious population depletion because of habitat reduction due to urban encroachment of all types. The loss of an additional sizable parcel of suitable habitat may be one more significant increment in the total habitat reductions which are leading to the extinction of the species. In addition, the possible demise of one or a few animals due to land conversion can be extremely serious when the total population numbers in only tens of hundreds. The impact of the conversion of two 15-acre parcels near the existing facilities of the Atlantic Richfield and Mobil refineries can be considered minor in any circumstance and is similar to the impact of similar conversions at the Shell and Texaco refineries discussed under the March Point/Anacortes activity zone. d. Air Quality (1) Activity. Two types of petroleum activity occur at Cherry Point in the scenarios discussed by this study. The Atlantic Richfield and Mobil Oil refineries located at Cherry Point will continue to process crude oil. The Atlantic Richfield facility was designed specifically to run on North Slope crude and probably some 80% of the Alaskan crude received in Puget Sound will be utilized at Cherry Point. In Scenario I, regional supply, the activity entails modest vessel movements in order to meet re- finery needs alone. In Scenario II with the Northern Tier Pipeline serving only transshipment to the Northern Tier states, the tanker supply to Cherry Point continues as in Scenario I. In Scenario II-B with the VII-167 Arthur D Little Inc Northern Tier Pipeline serving the existing refineries via the Puget Spur Pipeline, tanker activity at Cherry Point is restricted to only a few vessels carrying specialty blending crudes or those with cargoes that are not expeditiously unloaded at the Northern Tier facility in Port Angeles. At Cherry Point, this entails some 13 vessel calls per year. If Cherry Point is to be the site of a crude oil transshipment project, however, a far greater level of vessel transport will be required. Scenario III comprises three separate levels of crude oil throughput for transshipment. These roughly correspond to such proposals as the Northern Tier proposal presently intended for Port Angeles and the various Atlantic Richfield proposals such as the reversal and the looping of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. Some form of continued supply to Cherry Point refineries via the Trans Mountain Pipeline is discussed as Scenario IV and requires very little movement of crude via tanker. At present, Atlantic Richfield and Mobil both operate tanker terminals, separated by several miles from each other along the bluffs bordering the Strait of Georgia adjoining Cherry Point. The Intalco Aluminum Company also operates a marine terminal between the two, yet there is sufficient shoreline and onshore space for tankage remaining that a transshipment project would undoubtedly construct a separate marine terminal if large volumes of crude were required and particularly if deep draft vessels must be accommodated. The terminal would probably be located quite close to Cherry Point proper with a landfall on the property presently owned by Standard Oil or by Puget Light and Power (see Figure VII-15). This loca- tion is separate enough from the present terminals operated by Atlantic Richfield and Mobil that the transshipment component of Scenario III essentially operates as an independent source of local air quality impact. This serves to reduce the overall level of impact at Cherry Point, below the level expected at Port Angeles, simply on a statistical basis without considering the aspect of meteorology or surrounding terrain. In the analysis that follows, it will be the most significant component of local supply or transshipment that is subject to air quality examination. (2) Local Air Quality Impact. The principal source of local adverse impact is the pollutant concentrations emitted as the tanker stack gases during cargo offloading at the terminal. As described for Port Angeles, it is possible to estimate the potential air pollution sensitivity of the terminal vicinity in the absence of specific considerations of source strength and prevailing meteorology. The zones of varying levels of ground level con- centration are depicted in Figure VII-16. Much of the terrain on shore rises steeply above the Strait of Georgia to a height of 100 feet or so and then tapers upward several small hills on a broad plateau, stretching between the Nooksack River valley and the Strait of Georgia. As the terrain is lifted up toward the center line of a hypothetical tanker stack plume, the normalized ground concentration becomes greater. Thus, nearly the entire plateau of the Cherry Point-Ferndale area is included within the low potential impact zone. The higher portions are susceptible to adverse impacts under stability Class F; the lower portions, roughly everything west of the site itself, are adversely impacted during stability Arthur D Little Inc 4 VII-168 Bi-rch*-S'- BIRCH 13A Y star mud 0i Whir ......... :X. .1 . .......... .. ......... . ... . ... ... ........ .... ..... - - ------------ k" X, -X.: X X. 39N X: a X.: Rfi ery k Q@111 > 1 N Q . RES (0 u rmn n It Sandy @p. 38 L :J an I d N M t 0ebe A# i 1p. t io nw-w-wwmmo 0 1 2 34 0 Marine Terminal :'@ km Mi 01234 56 A Greater than 200 ft. NORTH elevation 17IGURE VII-15 LOCATION AND TOPOGRAPHY: CHERRY POINT VII-169 Arthur D Little, Inc BIRCH BAY --- ... .... ....... .............. POINT WHITEHORN .. . ............. CHERRY POINT .......... ............. ........... ....... ... . ....... 401 L"I BAY 4'el0 Normalized Ground Concentration 0 1 2 3 4 (10-6 m -2 - km Mi minimal .<7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Zone - 1 SOURCES: NORTH low 7 - 25 Arthur D. Little, Inc. Zone 2 medium 25 - 70 Zone 3 high >70 .............. ............... ............. .. .... ... ............... Marine Terminal FIGURE VII-16 NORMALIZED GROUND CONCENTRATION: CHERRY POINT VII-170 I Arthur D Little- Inc Class D. The zones depicted in Figure VII-16 represent the maximal ground level concentration contributed by either stability Class D or F. The upper elevations on the plateau, particularly those closer to the tanker terminal, fall within the medium impact zone. This includes all of Lake Tyrell and its game preserve. The small patch of high potential impact zone is the shoulder of the bluff immediately between Lake Tyrell and the Intalco Aluminum plant. The fairly large throughput involved in the transshipment scenarios results in a high emissions spectrum. To a large degree the probability of maximal emissions is reduced by the separation of transshipment from the regional refineries supply which utilizes other terminals in the Cherry Point vicinity. Nonetheless, Scenario III entails a range of 130 to 278 vessel calls per year for transshipment alone, most of the latter of the large vessel size fleet type. This will produce an emissions spectrum similar to the moderate throughput levels at Port Angeles. Meteorological conditions at Cherry Point are difficult to quantify based upon presently available data. As was described for March Point, it was felt appropriate to adapt the Bellingham data to Cherry Point by rotating the wind rose distribution of wind direction in this case, by one point or 22.5% in a counterclockwise direction. This takes into account the gradual counterclockwise curve of prevailing winds diverging at the end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and flowing upward through the Strait of Georgia. The low wind velocity for stability Class F is totally missing from the 'Bellingham observations and as described for March Point was synthesized for this study by a scale factor applied to the data for Classes D and E. The resultant probability of stability Class F for all wind velocities was thus brought to 15%,-roughly half of which is winds of less than three knots. It is the latter category, low velocity winds, that will produce the greatest true ground level concentrations from the source spectrum of tanker stack emissions. The state standard for sulfur dioxide is 40 pphm, averaged over one hour. This level may be compared with the ground level concentrations of Figure VII-16 to calculate a source strength required to equal or exceed the state standard. The source strength has a characteristic frequency of occurrence based upon the throughput volume entailed by each scenario. This statistic may be computed and combined with the probability of occurrence of low velocity winds directing the tanker plume toward each of the three potential air quality impact zones. The resultant frequency may be expressed in hours per year and is presented in Table VII-101. If tanker fuel has a 2% sulfur content the number of hours per year is on the order of two to three for the high volume throughput of Scenario III. These values are significantly lower than those calculated for Port Angeles, partially because of the separate marine terminal for regional and trans- shipment supply but largely because of the meteorological conditions for the area. The medium and high impact zone subtend a relatively small arc from the project site and lie in a direction from which the low velocity winds prevail. Thus the predominant air flow directs the tanker plume away from the zones of medium and high potential high. VII-171 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE-VII-101 ACUTE AIR QUALITY IMPACT CHERRY POINT Hours/year SO2b % Sulfur fuel over standard I for no violationo Vessel calls Fleet Number of % Fully in Impact zone in impact zone Hours/ye@r Scenario per year __Vpea berths occupied 1 2 3 1 2 3 'high NO?" 1. Regional Supply A. No Restrictions 64.5 1 --insi,gnificant emission impact-- B. Restricted Fleet R Oj 0.8 <11 >3 >3 II. Northern Tier A. Tanker Supply 64.5 :1 --insignificant emission impact-- B. Puget Spur 13 R --insignificant emission impact-- Ill. Transshipment 1980 (194)el3O 1 0 231 h >3 2.0 >3 Oj 1985 (222) 158 I,L Ih 2@ 2.5 1.8 >3 1990 (342) 278 L 6 3 1 1.3 1.5 >3 1 IV. Supply via Trans Mountain 8 1 --insignificant emission impact:-- a R = Restricted Vessel Size I = Intermdiate Vessel Size L = Large Vessel Size b for fuel with 2% Sulfur Content c State 1 hour standard is 40 pphm d high NOx is 25 pphm over one hour - does not correspond to applicable standard e parentheses denote actual vessel calls at Cherry Point. Terminate for Arco, Mobile and Transshipment ) would be separated sufficiently to act.as independent sources - smaller number is used for maximwn possible inpact Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. 0, Reverse calculation of the probability distribution, using a fre- quency of two hours per year for standard violation, allows an estimation of the percent sulfur content of tanker fuel that must be attained in order to avoid violation of the state standard. These data are also presented in Table VII-101 and indicate that a sulfur content of roughly 1.3 or 1.5% would be required to mitigate the local air quality impact of transshipment at Cherry Point. This range of concentration is within the range of readily available bunker "C" fuel although it is lower than that sulfur content of many fuels commonly used. As there is generally only moderate sulfur dioxide impacts, there are insignificant impacts from the other pollutants associated with tanker stack emissions, nitrogen dioxide, particulates, carbon monoxide, and organic substances are all at sufficiently low concentrations that no adverse impact is expected. It should be noted, however, that the conclusion of only moderate impact at Cherry Point is dependent upon meteorologic assumptions which may in fact differ from actual conditions in the Cherry Point vicinity. If a specific project were to be proposed for Cherry Point, it would re- quire detailed local monitoring or at least the application of more relevant local information in order to provide a precise statistical analysis of meteorologic conditions suitable for comparison with the broader spectrum of tanker stack emissions as is presented below. (3) Regional Air Quality.Impact. At present, Cherry Point is the site of several industrial activities which'contribute substantial quantities of sulfur dioxide, reactive organic gases, and other pollutants, particularly carbon monoxide from the Intalco Aluminum Refinery. The broad plateau surrounding Cherry Point and the open Strait of Georgia appeared to provide a good dispersive environment for such air pollu@ant emissions. There is no local monitoring station for general air quality parameters. The data for Bellingham indicate only minor problems and plant site monitoring apparently indicates very few occurrences of un- acceptable levels of immediate pollutants such as sulfur dioxide. The quantity of pollutants emitted by a transshipment project at Cherry Point will be a relatively small increment to the overall pollutant burden of the air basin. It is unlikely that they will amount to a major increase in actual ambient air quality levels for long-term averaging standards. The regional supply component of petroleum activity at Cherry Point in- cluded in Scenarios I, II-A, and III is simply a continuation of the present level of activity. A transshipment project would entail a fairly large volume of tankage for surge/storage. The emissions from such are given in Table VII-102. Combined with the possibility of vessel purging in port, the quantity of hydrocarbons is significant although still less than the existing emissions inventory for that pollutant due primarily to the present refineries. With regard to the possibility of formation of photochemical oxidant, the situation at Cherry Point is similar to that described for March Point -- that is, the relatively large point source reactive organic gas emissions from present operations apparently do not lead to a significant regionwide problem, at least one which is noted through the monitoring program. VII-173 Arthur D Uttle, Inc TABLE VII-102. AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS - MARINE TERMINAL CHERRY POINT (Tons/Day) Pollutant Hydrocarbons sox NOx Particulates Fuel Purging Storage-& Misc. Scenario I-A 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.325 Scenario I-B 0.682 0.476 0.114 0.034 1.785 4.289 Scenario II-A 1980 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.325 1985 0.527 0-* 371 O.G90 0.029 1.826 4.325 1990 0.527 0.371 0.090 0.029 1.826 4.325 Scenario II-B 0.080 0.056 0.013 0.004 0.210 2.684 Scenario III 1980 1.426 1.003 0.244 0.078 4.940 7.488 1985 1** 924 1.355 0.329 0.105 7.172 9.747 1990 3.091 2.180 0.528 0.169 12.161 14.800 Scenario IV 0.062 0.044 0.011 0.003 0.215 2.688 Source: Arthur D. Little Inc. db Overall, the average conditions for the formation of photochemical oxidant are probably not particularly favorable at Cherry Point. The prevailing winds direct the trajectory of hydrocarbons toward the north and northwest away from the site and typically away from land. Theoreti- cally, the point of maximum reaction would occur over British Columbia under average conditions. The relatively sparsely developed countryside will afford very little augmentation of reaction components and the overall level of ozone developed is probably small under typical conditions. As with other Puget Sound locations, however, there are certainly several days per year, at least, when oxidant formation conditions prevail and when winds may direct the reactant trajectory toward the urban centers of Ferndale or Bellingham. Statistically, such phenomena may be described as a distribution of oxidant experience with a fairly large standard geo- metric deviation. This implies that only a small increase in geometric mean oxidant concentration may, in fact, result in the abrupt appearance of a photocehmical oxidant problem. Considering present background levels, however, the amount of reactive organic gases contributed by a transshipment project here probably do not in themselves represent the increment that will in fact result in a persistent violation of the state and federal oxidant standards. It would be possible to'make such a determination only by detailed examination of existing monitoring data and by study of corre- lation with ambient meteorology. Although such a study may well be re- quired to ultimately determine the carrying capacity of the industrial zone designated for the western shore of Whatcom County, it is beyond the scope of the present study. The maximum throughput scenario (Scenario III) will result in significant employment on Cherry Point. That population will generate air emissions as part of its commute. Those emissions are included in the factors which lead to Table VII-102. Considering the broad area of Ferndale-Cherry Point, the impact of commute emissions is probably in- significant. The induced growth in the City of Bellingham will add a small proportion from population activities. It is incremental urban- ization that leads to the air quality problems so well documented through- out the nation. Growth in Bellingham will result in a worsening of air quality unless technological controls and specific abatement programs are counter-effective. e. Water Quality/Marine Biology (1) Impact Generators. Should an oil transshipment facility be located at Cherry Point, both operational spills and casualty spills occurring at the terminal would contribute additional loads of oil to the waters in the immediate vicinity. While the amounts of oil released by operational and casualty spillage would be similar, the higher frequency of operational spills indicates smaller spill size (see Tables VII-103 and VII-104). However, even though the amount of oil in each casualty spill would be greater, this type of spill would be exposing the local biota and other beneficial uses to oil much less frequently -- on the order of once every 10 to 50 years -- as opposed to once every 2 to 10 months for opera- tional spills. Operational spillage of oil in port is therefore the greater impact generator over a given time period. VII-175 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VII-103 OPERATIONAL SPILLS AT MARINE TERMINAL CHERRY POINT Throughput Operational Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr I. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 170 (1) 1.16 315 B. Restricted Fleet 170 (R) 2.00 540 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 170 (1) 1.1' 6 315 1985-1990 170 (1) 1.16 31.5 B. Regional Supply by Puget, Spur Pipeline 1980 20 (R) 0.24 64 1985 20 (R) 0.24 64 1990 20 (R) 0.24 64 III. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 460 (1) 3.14 850 1985 66.0 (I,L) (b) 4.00 1090 1990 1.110 (I,L)(c) 5.99 1630 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain 20 (I)@ 0.24 64 Pipeline (a) R = restricted fleet, average tanker size. is 86,700 Dwt I = intermediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,30,0 Dwt L = large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt (b) 1985: 310 1; 350 L (c) 1990: 110 1; 1000 L Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-176 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE VII-104 CASUALTY SPILLS IN PORT - CHERRY POINT Throughput Casualty Spills Scenario (1000 B/D) Number Gal/Yr I. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 0 0.0183 240 B. Restricted Fleet .0 0.0315 420 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 400 (1) 0.0183 240 1985-1990 800 (L) 0.0183 240 B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 1980 690 (L) 0.0037 50 1985 1090 (L) 0.0037 50 1990 1250 (L) 0.0037 50 111. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 0 0.0494 660 1985 Q 0.0630 840 1990 0 0.0971 1300 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain Pipeline 0 0.0023 30 (a) R = restricted fleet, average tanker size is 86,700 Dwt I = inter-mediate fleet, average tanker size is 137,300 Dwt L = large fleet, average tanker size is 179,600 Dwt Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-177 Arthur D Little Inc The amounts of oil released into the waters immediately surrounding Cherry Point are shown in Table VII-105. It can be seen that the oil load contributed by both casualty and operational spillage from a trans- shipment terminal is much less than that discharged by the two refineries in the area, representing only a 12% increment over background oil dis- charge. To obtain a concentration of oil in the waters off Cherry Point., the amount of oil and grease related in 10 days from both refineries and oil terminal was used. This amount is probably an overestimate because new water would have replaced some of the oil-laden water within 10 days due to tidal exchange, and the background oil release is based on the NPDES permit levels for the two refineries (Atlantic Richfield and Mobil) which may be discharging less than they are allowed under the permit. The volume of water receiving both the refineries' and the terminal's oil comprises the zone of probable impact (see Figure VII-17). Based on net tidal and wind movements in this part of Puget Sound, this area represents the most probable mobility of oil released at Cherry Point in the span of one day. The volume of this impact zone was estimated using the surface area and the average depth. The concentration of oil in this zonels volume after 10 days' time was calculated using this volume and the 10-day oil releases from the refineries and from casualty and operational spills from the oil terminal, as discussed above. As can be seen from Table VII-106, the chronic or steady state con- centration of oil in the probable impact zone resulting from background discharge plus terminal spills is very low and in fact mostly (89%) due to refinery discharge. This concentration assumes that the refineries discharge as much oil and grease as allowed in their permits. In fact, they are currently discharging less'. Thus the concentration of oil off Cherry Point waters would be even lower than 10 ppm. Moreover, chronic levels of oil would usually be lower than this amount if an oil terminal were located at Cherry Point because the project conditions chosen are the maximum case Scenario III-B in 1990, which has the highest throughput of crude through Cherry Point. Chronic exposure to 10 ppb crude oil of even the most sensitive of marine species, the phytoplankton, would not subject these organisms to deleterious effects or population decline. Phytoplankton, or microscopic plant life, does begin to show signs of damage such as reduced cell division at 10 ppb kerosene for a few sensitive species, and at about 100 ppm or 100,000 ppb kerosene for most of the species in the tests of Mironov (1970). The 100,000 ppb threshold concentration, corroborated by the test results of LaCaze (1969), is more relevant than the 10 ppb threshold since the latter was obtained with crude oil and the former obtained only with kerosene, which is part of the highly toxic volatile portion of crude oil and, therefore, likely to produce effects at lower concentrations. In any event, all of the thresholds for injurious effects of crude or its fractions upon other types of marine organisms are also far above the levels that would be experienced chronically in.the water surrounding Cherry Point. It can thus be concluded that while oil spillage will occur and exert its acute effects at the time of each spill, long-term chronic effects upon marine biota due to a steady state concentration of weathered crude at or above threshold levels would not be'a concern at Cherry Point. Arthur D Uttle- ]Inc VII-178 TABLE VII-105 OIL DISCHARGE IN TERMINAL VICINITY CHERRY POINT BACKGROUND lbs/da kg/10da Urban Runoff Refineries 253 1148 1 a -(NPDES I)E!rmit) Arco Arco 250 1134 Mobil Mobil 2282 TERMTNAL Operational 156 Spills Casualty 124 Spills TOTAL 2562 a Permitted levels of daily discharge of oil grease averaged over one month. Includes ballast and storm water allocations for Arco and Texaco, based on average flows at Mobil refinery. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-179 Arthur D Little, Inc. BIRCH BAY CHERRY PT C) FERNDALE L"I BAY BELLINGHAM 0 1 2 3 4 Operational Oil Spills at Marine Terminal M. km 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Possible impact zone SOURCES: NORTH Arthur D. Little, Inc. Probable impact zone FIGURE VII-17 PROBABLE AND POSSIBLE IMPACT ZONE/CHERRY POINT VII-180 TABLE' VFI-106 CHRONIC CONCENTRATION IN PROBABLE IMPACT ZONE CHERRY POINT Scenario III 1990 Backgrounda 9.24 TERMINAL Operational 0.632 Spills Casualty Spills 0.502 %Background of Total 89 TOTAL 10.37 (ppb) a 2 refineries Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VII-181 Arthur D Little, Inc Considering all oil development scenarios, the waters in the possible i;npact zone around Cherry Point would be exposed to an oil slick of varying size once every 2 to 10 months due to operational spillage. Superimposed upon this exposure would be a casualty spill in port every 10 to 50 year s which, while larger in volume than the more frequent operational spills, would be located within the same zone before it was either cleaned up or became dispersed by tides and winds, a span of about one day. Since the concentration of unweathered crude within the slick is extreme, any organisms that come into contact with the main slick or its associated fragments will be exposed to both mechanical. (surface-coating) and acute chemical toxicity. The principal population increase from Scenario III is expected to fall on the cities of Ferndale and Bellingham. As described previously, the present capacity of both wastewater treatment facilities is in- sufficient to provide complete and adequate treatment for the existing population according to current federal clean water standards. The growth inducement of a major transshipment project will further degrade effluent quality by system overload. The growth may also stimulate and in some measure help defray the cost of system upgrading. Since a transshipment project tanker takes on no cargo, there will be little waste discharged from transshipment tankers at Cherry Point. (2) Impact Receptors. The possible impact zone off Cherry Point represents the area within which winds and tides working together could move the centroid, or center of mass, of an oil slick during one day. Thus, although the spilled oil might not fill the entire zone (the light grey area on Figure VII-17), if spilled at the terminal site the oil could be moved anywhere within the possible impact zone and most probably would be found either entirely or partially within the probable impact zone. Because of the probabilistic nature of these zones, all organisms inhabiting them must be considered at risk to the mechanical and acute chemical toxicity of freshly spilled oil. (Refer to Figures VIII-2, VIII-4, VIII-6, VIII-8, and VIII-11 for the location of some of the most important marine resources in Puget Sound.) Small proportions but nevertheless significant amounts of the crab and scallop resources of northern Puget Sound could receive the acute impacts of oil spilled at Cherry Point. Although bottom-dwellers, these shellfish can come into direct contact with any or all fractions of crude: sinking masses of weathered (heavy, less acutely toxic) crude., redeposition of unweathered crude-covered beach sand, or most likely through the persistent presence of an oil-water emulsion in which tiny droplets of fresh crude become whipped into the water column by pounding surf. If the crabs or scallops were not immobilized by the mass of oil itself, they would very likely either die from or become unmarketably contaminated with chemically toxic hydrocarbon compounds via the sediments'or the water column. Long-term, sublethal effects which can weaken the local population of shellfish or crustaceans are known to occur. For example, miss-timing of mating coloration and loss of escape reaction in the fiddler crab after an oil spill at Woods Hole, Massachusetts (Blumer, 1970). It should be noted that shrimp, another of the deepwater shellfish inventoried in the Marine Atlas, would not be affected by spills originating at a Cherry Point terminal. VII-182 Arthur D Little, Inc. Of the marine resources found in shallower intertidal and subtidal waters, small amounts but significant proportions of northern Puget Sound's clam and. herring spawning ground resources would be affected by oil spilled at Cherry Point, whereas no oysters (specifically the beds in Lu=i Bay and Drayton Harbor) would be affected. The mechanical and chemical toxicity effects of spilled oil upon clam beds would be similar to that discussed previously for scallops. Herring spawning could be interfered with in a number of ways: mechanical or surface-coating death of adult fish through gill coating, death of eggs and newly hatched herring larvae -- the most sensitive of animal forms -- through mechanical and chemical toxicity, and the chemical interference of hydrocarbons with critical spawning (as well as other). behavior patterns. Because major fisheries, both salmon and bottom fish, are located farther offshore than shellfish resources, they would not be seriously affected by oil spilled at Cherry Point itself. Only very small propor- tions of northern Puget Sound's commercial salmon and commercial bottom fisheries come within the possible impact zone while no sport fisheries would.be affected. Although finfish can and do suffer mortality and tainting from contact with oil, they are mobile and can escape the parts of the water column where they sense the presence of hydrocarbon compounds. Furthermore, while fisheries are sometimes hindered because oil befouls boats and gear, the exposure of the Cherry Point impact zone to only the edge of the fishery areas would minimize such effects. Two entire, although small, eelgrass beds and part of a third larger bed are located within the possible impact zone of oil spilled at a Cherry Point terminal. These beds make up a small fraction of northern Puget Sound's total eelgrass bed resource, but their damage would still -be important because of the extremely productive habitat they provide for a large variety of marine organisms: crustacean larval forms, adult crabs, fish, as well as waterfowl for which eelgrass (Zostera marina and Z. nana) provides both a resting ground and a major food source. Oil from Cherry Point spills could damage the grass directly when washed up onto the leaf surface,or could kill the plants through suffocation (coating) of the roots. Not every spill would reach the area and the frequency of opera- tional spillage at Cherry Point is such that the beds would regenerate., In addition to damaging effects on the eelgrass itself and direct mortality and morbidity effects on the very sensitive marine life form's harbored by the beds, indirect effects upon animal and bird life depend- ing upon the eelgrass beds would occur in proportion to the extent of eelgrass bed distruction. In the case of the isolated bed just off Cherry Point (see Figure VIII-11), these indirect effects would be significant for organisms, larval forms as opposed to waterfowl, which could not move to the other nearby eelgrass beds which were unaffected by oil. The only waterfowl area designated as such by the Marine Atlat which could be affected by Cherry Point oil spillage would be the lower one- third (approximately) of the waterfowl area in Birch Bay. Among the VII-183 Arthur D Little- Inc effects of oil upon waterfowl would be surface-coating effects, such as death from exposure due to feather damage and loss of insulation and buoyancy properties. Waterfowl. also suffer chemical toxicity through eating contaminated food: fish, shellfish, algae, or eelgrass. Longer term effects on the populations of affected waterfowl would include, for example, loss of reproductive success due to suppression of mating behavior through hydrocarbon interference with hormone activity. Destruction or damage to this locally significant portion of a waterfowl area would be permanent if oil from Cherry Point spills were to reach the northernmost edge of the possible impact zone with the expected frequency of operational spills. Overall, however, this lower tip of the Birch Bay waterfowl area represents a moderately small portion of the waterfowl area resource of northern Puget Sound. VII-184 Arthur D,IjttleIrK: VIII. MARINE ENVIRONMENT A. INTRODUCTION Chapter VIII addresses the alternative means of transportation of crude oil into and through the coastal counties of the State of Wash- ington. Oil may be transported either by tanker, by pipeline, or by some combination of the two. Tanker transportation affects the marine environment -- the waters of Puget Sound. The main source of environ- mental impact on the marine environment is casualty oil spillage associated with marine transit. In Chapter VIII, only casualty spills in the marine transit corridors are considered; casualty and operational spills from tankers in port are discussed in Chapter VII. Pipeline transportation primarily affects the terrestrial environment, including land use and regional ecology. Pipeline corridors also cross rivers, creeks, and other upland watercourses which empty into Puget Sound, and may thus occasionally have impacts on the marine environment in the rare instances where pipeline failure produces oil contamination of these watercourses and injures aquatic life, including anadromous fish. Depending upon scenario, tanker transportation affects either the outer Sound (Strait of Juan de Fuca) only, or affects both the strait and the north inner Sound. Section B describes that environmental setting of the strait and the north Sound. These areas are characterized according to existing oceanographic conditions which determine oil spill mobility and according to existing marine biologic resources. Section C discusses the probable environmental impacts of transit oil spills. First the potential impact zone is defined for the six possible tanker route segments, followed by an assessment of the marine biotic resources potentially at risk within these impact zones and the significance of these resources in relation to the total resources of Puget Sound. Four pipeline links are involved in various combinations in one or more of the petroleum scenarios. These are the Northern Tier Pipeline- Peninsula. Link, running from Port Angeles to Selleck, and the Northern Tier Pipeline-East Washington Link, from Selleck to Stampede Pass; the Puget Spur, from@ Selleck to the existing refineries at March Point and Cherry Point; and the Trans Mountain Link, from the Laurel Pump Station east of Cherry Point to Sumas, near the Canadian border. Section B develops the environmental setting of these pipeline routes. Section C addresses the environmental impacts of pipeline construction, corridor maintenance, and possible oil spills due to accidental rupture of the pipe. Tanker transportation of petroleum affects the waters of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and north Puget Sound. In Scenario II-B, Northern Tier Pipeline, originating at Port Angeles, regional supply by Puget Spur, VIII-1 Arthur D Little Inc Pipeline, originating at Port Angeles, regional supply by Puget Spur, the tanker route ends at Port Angeles; only the Strait of Juan de Fuca is potentially impacted by transit oil spills. In all the remaining scenarios there is some degree of tanker transportation activity on the inner Sound as well; the area of tanker activity is the north Sound - t@e area enclosed by north Whidbey Island on the east, the entrance to Admiralty Inlet on the south, the Strait of Georgia on the north, and the Strait of Juan de Fuca-Vancouver Island on the west. South Puget Sound, or the area outside these boundaries, will not be impacted by the tanker routes in any of the petroleum development scenarios. Scenario IV involves only minor tanker activity; I-A, I-B, II-A and II-B involve moderate tanker traffic, and III-A and III-B call for major tanker movement on both the strait and north Sound. The following analysis of existing marine resources of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and north Puget Sound considers many of the important kinds of living organisms found in and near these waters, and is meant to provide a satisfactory background for the assessment of oil spill impacts in Section C. This study does not provide, however, an exhaustive characterization of all of the region's marine resources, but stresses the larger, more conspicuous forms, those of economic importance, and those which have been well studied. In particular, the location and relative local abundance of species of commercial or recreational impor- tance are weil-known, and also tend to be concentrated in localized areas of the Sound. Unexploited fish and invertebrate species may have similar, or at least comparable, distributions but little data is available. Phytoplankton and zooplankton, the primary producers and consumers at the base of marine food chains, have more patchy distribution in time and space throughout the study area that is not readily documented. While these two groups -- unexploited fish and invertebrates -- and plank- ton are highly important and essential to marine ecosystems, they are not explicitly addressed in this analysis owing to the absence of reliable data. Areas rich in harvestable resources are often also rich in primary production; hence, an assessment of oil spill effects on the former should yield a first order indication of impacts on the latter. VIII-2 Arthur D Little, Inc. b B. EXISTING CONDITIONS 1. Tanker Transport Corridors a. Surface Current and Oil Spill Mobility Crude oil impact on the marine environment depends largely upon its mobility. The acute phase of oil impact is that most commonly associated with the adverse environmental impacts of oil spill: the heavy oil slick on the surface of the water and dense accumulations of oil along the shoreline. The acute phase impact zone is determined by oil mobility in 'the vicinity of its point of release. Studies indicate that current and winds both contribute to the motion of floating oil in proportion to their velocity. Analysis of surface current patterns in Puget Sound leads to an estimate of the impact zone. Surface movement is most strongly affected by water movement; roughly 100% of the.current determines surface current velocity. On the other hand, wind has a far weaker effect on surface movement -- wind-induced surface currents usually have a velocity approximately 2.5% of the wind speed above the water. Since wind speeds are typically far greater than current, wind can be a major force despite the relatively small 2.5% coupling factor between the wind speed and surface current. Average wind speeds at coastal locations, particularly those.lying close to mountain ranges which serve to channel wind flow, range from 6-10 miles per hour (mi/hr). Such velocities will induce surface currents of 0.15-0.25 mi/hr. At most locations along the open coast of the Pacific and at some locations within Puget Sound, the average magnitude of oceanic or tidal currents falls within this range and there wind will play a major role in determining the trajectory of spilled oil. There is great variation in wind speed -- the average velocity reflects frequent periods of near calm as well as frequent periods of winds twice or more greater than average. The effect on surface current is proportional; thus, the wind-induced current ranges from 0-1 mi/hr or greater during storm conditions. Tidal currents are far stronger within Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca than they are along the open coast, and thus constitute a far more significant force in oil slick movement. Most simply, the velocity of tidal current at a point is proportional to the volume of the tidal prism that must be displaced past that point over one tidal cycle, and it is inversely proportional to the cross sectional area of the channel which must carry the tidal flow. Thus, at the entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, tidal current is significant (1 mi/hr) despite the large cross section of the strait because the entire tidal volume of the inner Puget Sound must be moved through that point twice in a tidal. cycle (12-12 hours). Proceeding eastward toward the inner reaches of' the Sound, the typical tidal current diminishes for areas of large cross section. Where channel cross section is reduced by shoaling or by narrowing between points of land, the tidal current will VIII-3 Arthur D Little- Inc increase sharply. The channels through the San Juan Islands such as the Haro Strait (2 mi/hr average peak velocity) and the Rosario Strait (3 mi/hr average peak), Deception Pass north of Whidbey Island (4 mi/hr), and Admiralty Inlet south of Whidbey Island (2 mi/hr) all have large tidal velocities. At the extreme inner reach, tidal current diminishes even in narrow channels such as the Hood Canal and southern Puget Sound. Tidal current is also small in the Strait of Georgia, the expanse of which stretches north from the San Juan Islands past Cherry Point defining the north- eastern coast of Vancouver Island. The current is small here not only because the large cross section allows easy movement of even large volumes of water, but also because the Strait of Georgia contains the hydraulic terminus for tidal current set by the tidal phenomena of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The channel north of Vancouver Island is narrow but immense tidal velocities (12 mi/hr at the Seymore Narrows) result in significant tidal movement through the northwestern portion of the Strait of Georgia. Although current data are sparse for the Strait of Georgia, since currents are generally considered insignificant in that location, it appears that a point somewhat southwest of the City of Vancouver demarks the tidal influence of the Strait of Juan de Fuca from the south and the Seymore Narrows from the north. To the north of this demarcation the tide will ebb and flood through the Seymore Narrows to the north. To the south of this demarcation the tide will ebb and flood through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. In the immediate vicinityof the demarcation, the forces of induced tidal current diminish to.zero. The U.S./Canadian boundary approximates the hydraulic boundary of Puget Sound as well as the political boundary. Tidal current is an oscillatory phenomenon. In an ideal system, a floating object released at low tide will at first experience no current. As the tidal cycle continues toward high tide the flood or incoming current will carry the floating object up the channel with a velocity roughly following a sine function. At high tide, when the flood current has diminished to zero, the object will be displaced a distance up channel representing its average velocity acting over the @6@4 hours of a half tidal cycle. As the cycle swings toward the low tide the ebb or outgoing current develops and carries the floating object back again, reaching its initial starting point at slack water, low tide at the end of the cycle. As will be discussed below, thereare a number of .phenomena which result in net displacement over the course of a tidal cycle but in a great many tidal systems the net displacement is small compared with the cyclical displacement. We consider current alone, deferring the discussion of wind-induced effects until later. At any point east of Cape Flattery the immediate fate of an oil spilll(in terms of hours) is determined by the trajectory established by the oscillating tidal current. With a half tidal cycle (0-4 hrs) the tidal current, at nearly every point within the Puget Sound system, has the potential to move an oil slick between 4 and 15 miles. Arthur D Little- Inc, IL The actual distance displaced and the direction of the distance is of course dependent upon the exact stage of the tide (i.e., begin ebb, mid-flood, etc.). For example, an oil spill occurring at the beginning of flood tide west of Whidbey Isi-and would be carried six miles to the north toward Rosario Strait.' If the spill occurred at the beginning of ebb tide, the spill would be carried approximately six miles to the southwest by the end of ebb tide. If the spill were to occur between the beginning and end of either ebb or flood the displacement would be less than the maximum. For any location, the potential half tidal cycle displacement represents the initial range of oil spill dispersion. Information concerning tidal currents is available from the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Adminis- tration (NOAA). NOAA is presently developing a complex model of Puget Sound current. There are no interim results which could be applied to this study; hence, the material that follows is only a rough approximation intended to provide a general indication of the relative mobility of oil spills. Data for 50 locations within the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound form the basis for the discussion of tidal effects. Average maximum displacement of a floating object over half a tidal cycle was calculated for various locations within the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound. (See Figures VIII-1 through VTII-4.) As expected, the half cycle mobility of an oil spill is greatest in those locations where the peak tidal current is greatest, particularly where narrow channels persist over a long portion of the trajectory, such as within the San Juan Islands. Tidal current is weak within the immediate vicinity of all three petroleum industry activity zones, although for slightly different reasons. Port Angeles is protected from the strong current of the Strait of Juan de Fuca by Ediz Hook. There is little tidal displacement within the hook because the tidal prism is so small. March Point adjoins Padilla Bay, which is a physical dead-end for tidal movement. Cherry Point, although located in an exposed location, in fact lies close to the hydraulic boundary of northern Puget Sound and thus experiences small tidal displacements. The tanker transportation corridors that approach the marine terminals pass through areas of high tidal current throughout most of their length. Tidal action will constitute one of the major definitions of the impact zone for oil spills occurring along the tanker route through Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The previous figures show that the half-cycle displacement trajectory for ebb tide differs slightly from that for flood tide. Differences in direction and magnitude are occasionally quite pronounced and are generally due to the presence of two independent factors. The first factor is net outward freshwater flow from the many major rivers that drain into the sound and the Strait of Georgia. The magnitude of net outflow varies from point to point throughout the area depending on the size of the watershed draining through a particular cross section of tidal channel. VIII-5 Arthur D Little, Inc FIGURE VIII-1 HALF CYCLE DISPLACEMENT - FLOOD TIDE - STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA 0 5 10 is 20 Mi - kni 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A NC 0 U V E RISLAND V I C T 0 CAPE F L A T TR Y 0'C 0'r 01 KEY 40 P 0 R T A14GELES Trajectory of tidal current from beginning to end of flood Source: NOAA, US Dept. of Commerce, Current Tables 1974 North Pacific, data adapted by Arthur D. Little, Inc. AN db FIGURE VIII- 2 HALF CYCLE DISPLACEMENT FLOOD TIDE NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 15 20 - @ rni n@ km 0 10 20 30 NORTH CANADA KEY U.S.A. P 0 1 N I R 0 P E R T S Trajectory of tidal current from beginning to end of flood r, C 111 R R Y .4 P T B E L L I N GN A M 00 S A N J U A N 1 S L A N D 0 MACOMB MARCII PT. v I C 1. 0 R I A 0% W H I D B E Y 0 ISLAND SKAGIT A Y 000r D U N 6 E N E S S P 0 R T SPIT A N G E L E S 10 Source: NOAA, US Dept. of Commerce, Current Tables 1974 North Pacific, data adapted by Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-7 FIGURE VIII-3 HALF CYCLE DISPLAMENT EBB TIDE STRAIT OF JUAN DE F 0 5 10 is 20 - - Mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A N C 0 U V E RISLViD V I C T 0'r do KEY P 0 R T A N G E L E S Trajectory of tidal current from beginning to end of ebb Source: NOAA, US Dept. of Commerce, Current Tables 1974 North Pacific, data adapted by Arthur D. Little, Inc. AM db FIGURE VIII-4 HALF CYCLE DISPLACEMENT - EBB TIDE - NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 15 20 Mi 0 10 20 30 NORTH A N A D A - - - -- I - KEY U,S,A. ROMRIS Trajectory of tidal current from beginning to end of ebb C 11 ( R R Y Pi. B E L L I N G H A M S A N J U A N ISLA14D 0 ANACORTES MARCH PT. V I C T 0 R I A co W H 1 0 B E Y 1 S L A 11 D S K A G I T *-100 B A Y D U N 6 E N E S S S P I T P 0 R T A N G E L E S Source: NOAA, US Dept. of Commerce, Current Tables 1974 North Pacific, data adapted by Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-9 Since fresh water is buoyant, the freshwater outflow is concentrated in roughly the upper 200 feet of the water column, thus reducing the effective cross section and increasing the velocity. The effect of net outflow is to augment the ebb tide vector and decrement the flood tide vector. On a regional scale, the net outflow defines the major tendency for pollutants to be flushed from Puget Sound -- a tendency which probably dominates over the dilution caused by partial mixing resulting from cyclical tidal action. The second factor is caused by rotational currents. When a tidal channel bends sharply the force of the moving body of water is directed against the outside of the curve, resulting in a net radial force, although the water is unable to physically move in that direction. The implication for an oil spill is highly significant since the net surface vector in a curved tidal channel will cause the major impact from an oil slick to occur along the outside shore during either flood or ebb tide. If the rotational motion is in open water, away from the sharp delineation of land masses, the tidal rotation is often called a gyre. Because of its hydraulic origin, a tidal gyre has a tendency to reverse direction with the changing of the tide. Nonetheless, the magnitude and the centroid of the cyclical rotation may differ significantly for the gyre established by flood tide and for that established by ebb tide. The result is sigilifi- cant differences between the tidal motion of ebb and flood in that vicinity. That phenomenon is extremely common in Puget Sound. Specifically, major gyres of strong current characterize the area of the intersection of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Puget Sound, stretching between Fresh- water Bay, west of Port Angeles, and Whidbey Island. Some degree of net circular motion is observed around several of the islands in the San Juan group as well as around Whidbey Island itself. There are weak gyres at the fringe of the Strait of Georgia, but deep water and weak tidal action within that body generally show greatly diminished tidal effects. If ebb and flood tide have slightly different displacement vectors, a floating object, such as an oil spill, will follow a zig-zag path since displacement by each successive cycle will not exactly cancel the displacement of the previous cycle. The result is a net motion in a direction defined by the sum of the predominant flood and ebb tidal vectors. Recalling the net freshwater outflow from Puget Sound, it is anticipated that the predominant net tidal- current will be outward, toward the Pacific ocean and away from the inner Sound. Such is the case, although the effects of net circulation caused by gyres or radial outward forces caused by channel curves complicate the problem of predicting net tidal vectors. Since the net tidal current may be significant in transporting spilled. oil over the course of several days, an effort was made to esti- mate the direction and magnitude of that effect. The tidal current data provided by NOAA are only meant to indicate the character of current at certain locations. The data contain a modest amount of error which, when subjected to a differential comparison, can produce results of far greater proportional error. Nonetheless such data are the niost readily availab-le VIII-10 Arthur D Little- Inc, syste in capable of describing the entire area of northern Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca that must be considered by this study. There are ongoing efforts to model tidal motion within Puget Sound such as a highly sophisticated computer model being developed by the NOAA. Currently, the methodology for that model is still at the testing stage and no network description results have been made available yet. At such a time as the model becomes operative, however, it is imperative that the following type of oil spill impact analysis be conducted based upon the far better predicting powers of a unified applied model. In order to compute net,surface current motion, vector sums of ebb and flood tides were obtained for 60 stations within the study area. These vectors were then compared with the streamlines of water motion defined by the tidal cycles:themselves. The vector sums were then decomposed into a radial component perpendicular to the streamline that represents the effect of outward acceleration and a parallel component which indicates the effect of net flow such as may be attributed to freshwater outflow or persistent tidal rotation. The resulting set of vectors-was used to establish fields of net tidal influence which covered the portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound that will be affected by tanker traffic bound for the three petro- leum industry activity zones. A time scale of one day was selected to provide a measure of net displacement potential and to integrate over the variation in surface motion characteristic of localized areas within the Sound. Figures VIII-5 and VIII-6 present a series of trajectories, each indicating the approximate path and distance of displacement that will be experienced by a floating body over a period of two tidal cycles approximately one day. It is important to note that the path depicted in Figures VIII-5 and VIII-6 in fact represents the mean position of the floating body and that its actual path will have followed a highly active zig-zag caused by tidal fluctuations or oscillations. This distinction is criti- cal for the understanding of oil spill impact zones. The net current allows prediction of the average position of the spill at any time after its release from a known point. The instantaneous position will be found to vary around that mean due to the continual action of the tidal pheno- menon. Thus, an envelope drawn around a trajectory of mean position indicates the range of tidal displacement possible. The oil spill will then be expected to remain within that envelope unless the additional effects of wind are considered. As stated earlier, the wind above the water has a tendency to cause surface currents and motion of a floating oil slick with a velocity approximately 2.5% of the velocity of the wind itself. Wind data for the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound are not available for such a fine network as is used for tidal data. Fortunately, however, the variation in wind is far more regional, reflecting the effects of masses of mountains rather than the individual orientation of the small 7, ZO VIII-11 Arthur D Little, Inc FIGURE VIII- 5 NET TIDAL CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUC 0 5 10 15 20 mil kni 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A N C 0 U V E RI S L A N D V I C T 0 CAPE F L A T T E R Y 0 PC KEY P 0 R T A N C, E L E S Mean one day displacement due to net tidal current Strong onshore radial current component Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII- 6 NET TIDAL CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 15 20 krn 0 10 20 30 N09TH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. C A N A D A KEY U.S.A. Mean one day P 0 1 N T R 0 BE R T S displacement due to net tidal current 6' @10 Strong onshore C11rRRY .4 P T . radial current component 00 ca QS S A N J U A N ISLAND 0 ANACORTES MARCH PT. V I C T 0 R I A 00 9k w H I D B E Y 00 ISLAND S K AG I T D NGENESS P 0 R T S P I T A N G E L E S VIII-13 shoals and channels within the Sound. Generally it is possible to define a system of streamlines for the area, illustrating the tendency for air motion to be changed by regional mountain masses. Prevailing winds strike the northwest coast from the west or south- west. They are channeled through the Strait of Juan de Fuca to flow across Port Angeles from west to east. Upon entering Puget Sound, the winds diverge across Whidbey Island, with the northern portion being bent in a northerly direction and the southern portion being bent in a southerly direction towards Seattle and the lower Sound. This generality is presented in several sources, including the Marine Atlas prepared bv the State of Washington Department of Natural Resources. The general- ization is also consistent with an analysis of wind data from three stations: Port Angeles, Whidbey Island, and Bellingham. For each station, a 16-point wind rose was compiled; frequency of occurrence and average wind speed were then combined to indicate the intrinsic quantity of wind (in units of distance) that will blow across the station on a statistical basis. A sum of the resulting 16 vectors yields a net wind vector with an orientation consistent with the diver- gence description of prevailing wind and with a magnitude showing the gradual attenuation of wind velocity as friction and divergence reduce unit air mass momentum along the path from the Pacific Ocean to the inner reaches of Puget Sound and the Strait of Georgia. Such information may be taken over a 24-hour time interval and combined with the 2.5% induced surface current coupling fa'ctor to yield'a vector field illustrating the net displacement over one day caused by wind-induced surface current through the study areas. (See Figures VIII-7 and VIII-8.) Referring back to Figures VIII-5 and VIII-6, it is clear that the tendency for net wind-induced surface current is practically the direct opposite of the tendency for net current displacement in the same body of water. This is simply explained by the tendency for fresh water to flow from the mountains toward the sea, thus determining the net current, and by the tendency of the prevailing Pacific westerlies to blow from the ocean toward the mountains, thus determining the net wind-induced surface current. If the two vector fields are taken together, a new family of vectors is obtained which indicates the potential one-day displacement of an oil slick at various locations within the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound. Because the net tidal current in the Sound is stronger than the wind-induced current, the total surface current vector field most closely resembles the net tidal current vector field. The principal effect of wind is to reduce the magnitude of surface displacement in most areas and to cause slight changes in orien- tation of net surface current vectors. The latter usually is most noticeable when the predicted radial motion of current is shifted from one shore to the other shore of a narrow channel by the predominant effect of the wind. Thus the onshore impact tends to be most pronounced along the shore of Whidbey Island and in the vicinity of Cherry Point along the Strait of Georgia. (See Figures VIII-9 atid VIII-10.) VIII-14 Arthur D Little, Inc W FIGURE VIII- 7 NET WIND INDUCED SURFACE CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: STRAIT OF J 0 .5 10 is 20 mi k rn 0 10 20 30 NORTH VANC 0 UV E R I S L A U D V I C T C A P E F L A T T E R Y op F, 001W C 4 '0@ KEY P 0 R T Mean one day displacement due to net wind current 'A N G E L E S Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII-8 NET WIND INDUCED SURFACE CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 15 20 Im mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. CANADA U.S.A. KEY P 0 1 N T ---P, Mean one day displacement R 0 B E R T S due to net wind current 6" 10 CIIERRY pl. 0 B E L L I N G H A M 00 Ir v S A N J U A N 0 ISLAND 43 ANACORIES MARC11 PT. V I C T 0 R I A 00 W H I D B E Y 0 1 S L A rl D S 4A G I T P A Y D U N G I N E S S P 0 R T SPIT A N G E L E S XTTT T-1 FIGURE VIII- 9 NET SURFACE CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: STRAIT OF JUAN DE 0 0 5 10 15 20 -- Mi - - kni NORTH 0 10 20 30 V A N C 0 U V E RI S L A f@ D V I C T 0 C A P E Sr94jr F L A T T E R Y 0 J04,, F-1 11C4 KEY P 0 R T A N G E L E S 0 Mean one day displacement due to net surface current Strong onshore radial current component Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII-10 NET SURFACE CURRENT SINGLE DAY DISPLACEMENT: NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 is 2.0 Mi km 0 10 20 30 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. CANADA KEY U.S.A. Man one day P 0 IN T displacement due to net surface 01 ROBERTS current oeo CHIRRY Strong onshore 14 P1. radial current component B E L L I N G H A M 00 40 00 0 cz a r,> J U A N S A N 0 I S L A N D ANACORIES NARCH PI. A v I C T 0 R I A w D B I Y A I-S L A N D S K A 6!@Th B A Y 00 D U N 6 E N E S S S P I T P 0 R T A N G E L E S VIII-18 Although a prevailing wind direction can be identified for every portion of the strait and northern Sound, the actual wind experienced at any given time is quite variable. If frequency of occurrence is multiplied by average wind velocity from each direction, a value is obtained for each direction that indicates the quantity of wind (miles) which will be expected over a specified time interval. On the average, the net wind-induced displacement is the vector sum of these quantities, as described above. The resultant vector is somewhat different from the concept of prevailing wind in that its magnitude is diminished by the averaging of winds from opposing directions. The resulting vector indicates the net displacement from the starting point, but variability of the wind will cause the actual position of the floating object to differ significantly from the mean position during much of the time. The amount of variance caused by wind variability is a function of wind speed and persistence of air flow from any given direction. It would be possible to perform a statistical analysis of wind records that would result in a time distribution of distance from the mean position. Since wind data in the appropriate form was not readily available, a different method was used in this study to estimate the variation in position caused by variation in wind. The product of frequency and average velocity was calculated for an 8-point wind rose, resulting in a series of displacement distance vectors. If three adjoining vectors are taken successively, the sum represents the maximum possible displacement due to wind in the direction of the princi- pal or central vector orientation. The actual distance of this displace- ment depends upon the averaging time selected for analysis. In this study, 24 hours was used to indicate average conditions and implies a persistence of wind from each octant that ranges between one and four hours depending on its statistical occurrence in the actual wind data. When adjoining vectors are summed for each of the eight points of the 31 wind rose, the eight end points form the vertices of an irregular octagon. This octagon can be smoothed, yielding an enclosed curve which represents the approximate extreme displacement from the center that can result from wind action over a 24-hour period. The actual location of a floating object within the wind displacement envelope is variable. Its actual trajectory may be a wandering or spiral path. On the average, however, its mean position will be that of the total vector sum, which indicates net displacement. (See Figure VIII-11.) Of course, there are conditions which will lead to displacement outside of the 24-hour wind envelope. An extremely strong and persis- tent wind., such as would be observed during a storm, could result in a deviation far outside the boundaries shown in Figure VIII-11. On an average basis, however, all weather conditions, storm and fair, are included within the wind rose data and the tendency for extreme displace- ment away from the mean that occurs during storm conditions is considered in defining the wind displacement envelope in proportion to its frequency of occurrence. Nonetheless, the resulting boundary must be considered suitable for discussion of average conditions and will not describe VIII-19 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII- 11 VARIANCE OF DISPLACEMENT DUE TO WIND INDUCED SURFACE CURRENT N Port Angeles N Whidbey Island N Bellingham KEY (0 Origin 0 1 2 3 4 Net displacement after 24 hours km M1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probable maximum displacement from SOURCES: origin due to variation in wind CD 0 Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-20 behavior during a storm. In this sense, the wind displacement envelope can be considered equivalent to a two-dimensional representation of the standard deviation of wind displaced position around the mean. On a statistical basis, it is expected that an object moved by the wind would be found within the envelope roughly 50-90% of the time. The precise statistical significance of the displacement envelope depends upon the choice of the averaging period. The choice of 24 hours for this study was not based upon direct calculations but rather was selected because it implies a plausible persistence of wind direction. This assumption, however, is a potential source of error and should be refined before too much reliance is placed upon the result. For the purposes of the impact analysis to follow, the fundamental conclusions are not strongly affected even if the envelope were to vary in size by a factor of two. Wind-induced variation can be combined with tidal variation to define an approximate zone of oil spill location. It may be seen that the generally strong winds and strong tides of Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca result in high mobility for spilled oil even over the course of a few hours. Over a time period of several days, however, the principal characteristic of the oil spill impact zone will be established by net surface current displacement. The consideration of tidal and wind-induced currents reflects data gathered over long periods of time and therefore indicates average conditions. Generally, the average net current displacement within northern Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca is from the east toward the west, from inland to the Pacific Ocean. This means that the near-term fate of spilled oil is gradual ejection from Puget Sound. In the course of this motion, the variation in position caused by wind and tide sweep out a fairly large area which must then be examined for potential impact; that analysis is presented in Section C-1 of this chapter. b. Marine Resources (1) Commercial Fisheries (finfish/shellfish resources). The waters of Puget Sound and the neighboring straits are exceptionally rich in commercial fishery resources. Foremost among the resources harvested are the salmonids, of which all five species (chinook, coho, sockeye, pink, and chum) are taken according to their relative abundance at different localities. The total value of the salmon catch (1971-73 average) was $22.6 million for north Puget Sound and $2.4 million for the Strait of Juan de Fuca. (See Figure VIII-12 for definition of areas.) The total for all Puget Sound-landed salmon was $29.5 million -- the north Sound catch accounts for 77% of the total, the strait for only 8.1%. The location of the major commercial salmon fishing areas is shown in Figures VIII-13 and VIII-14, and the economic value of catch* by area, is shown in Table VIII-1. The areal extent of salmon resources is given in Table VIII-2. Young fingerling salmon feed on immature forms of other fish and crustaceans in the rich mudflat areas of tidal estuaries associated with anadromous rivers and streams. During the marine phase, all five salmon VIII-21 Arthur D Little- Inc FIGURE VIII-12 SPORTS & COMMERCIAL RESOURCES AREAS SPORTS RESOURCES AREAS' COMMERCIAL RESOURCES AREAS t --'I/NPS StJdeF Strait of Juan de Fuca NPS = Northern Puqet'Sc,und Source: Institute for Marine Studies, University of Wash- ington, Washington Baseline Study: Marine Economic Com- ponent, Aug. 11, 1976. VIII-22 FIGURE VIII-13 SALMON FISHERY STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SOURCE: Washington, Department of 0 .5 10 15 20 Natural Resources (1974). Mi KM 0 10 20 .30*, NORTH VANCOUVER ISLAND CANADA ---------- V I C 7#4 0'p ---------------- P 0 ANGELES KEY Sport salmon WA SHINGTON fishing Commercial, salmon fishing NOTE: Res of Washing resource a others may FIGURE VIII-14 SALMON FISHERY NORTHERN PUGET SOUND NOTE: Resources shown for State 0 5 10 15 20 of Washington only. Most major - - -- rni resource areas are included but - km others may be significant. 0 10 20 30 X.-I NORTH SOURCE: Washington, Department of lpf CANADA Natural Resources (1974). KEY Sport salmon fishing C If E R RY Commercial salmon PT fishing BELLINGHAM 00 C> SA UAN I:LAND 0 ANACORTf!; MRCH PT, AN.- VICTORIA 6 . .. . ....... WHIDBEY 0 ISLAND T DUNGENESS P 0 R I SPIT ANGELES L VIII-24 TABLE VIII Gross Value of Commercial Catch by Fishing Area (1971 1973 Average) AREA OF CATCH TANKER ROUTE SEGMENT SALMONIDS ALL OTHER TOTAL (Maximum Impact Zone) 1 234 5 6 NA Strait of Juan de Fuca Swiftsure 1 $ 36,374 $ 7,368 $ 43,742 Cape Flattery 1 989,139 1,498,101 2,463,240 Clallam Bay 1 2 117,885 - 117,885 Discovery Bay 23 406,668 - 406,668 Dungeness 23 - 11,960 11,960 Port Angeles 1 23 132,399 38,327 170,726 Port Discovery 23 - 72,999 72,999 Washington Harbor 23 - 22,700 22,700 Hoko River 1 2 23,426 - 23,426 Pysht River 1 23 33 - 33 Sekiu River 1 1,636 - 1,636 Tatoosh-Sail 1 702,227 - 702,227 Sail River 1 182 - 182 < Subtotal 2,405,979 1,651,4@-5 4,057,434 H F-A North Puget Sound Admiralty Inlet 3 4 5 6 407,836 407,836 1 Bellingham Bay 3 45 9,024 512,880 521,904 tn Port Gardner NA 107,469 109,166 216,635 Point Roberts 5 8,610,802 - 8,610,802 Port Susan NA 336,763 158,734 495,497 Port Townsend NA - 76,295 76,295 Mud Bay 3 45 6 - 226,414 226,414 Rosario 34 5 6 2,318,309 2,773 2,321,082 Salmon Banks 34 5 7,640,694 - 7,640,694 San Juan Channel 34 5 6 169,355 29,754 199,109 Skagit Bay 5 6 561,275 44,697 605,972 Saratoga Passage 6 - 10,651 10,651 Stuart Island NA 475,796 - 475,796 West Beach 34 5 6 628,530 110 628,640 Sucia 5 - 70,558 70,558 Samish Bay 34 5 157,510 124,131 281,641 Anacortes 34 5 6 - 60,927 60,927 Nooksack River 34 5 813,719 877 814,596 Hein Bank 34 5 - 2,805 2,805 Swinomish Slough 34 5 6 86 86 Similk Bay 34 6 - 45,393 45,393 Subtotal 22,237,182 1,476,251 23,713,433 Gulf of Georgia 5 - 543,511 543,511 All Other Puget Sound Landed (includes south Sound and Canadian catch areas) 4,469,561 5,635,826 10,105,989 Grand Total $29,112.722 9,307,043 $38,420,367 TABLE VIII-2 EXISTING MARINE RESOURCES: PERCENT OF TOTAL SOUND'S RESOURCE AREA DUNGENESS TOTAL SOUTH NORTH SKAGIT TOT@!- RESOURCE WEST SJF* SPIT SJF* PS*- PS* BAY (mi Intertidal clams 6 10 16 53 21 10 450 Subtidal clams 6 11 17 80 2 1 250 Oysters 0 3 3 79 16 2 190 Herring spawning grounds 0 5 5 41 48 5 180 Shrimp '0 0 0 60 18 23 180 Scallops 0 0 0 19 81 0 130 Crab 12 2 14 19 62 5 580 Salmon (sport) 36 10 46 30 19 4 970 Salmon (commercial) 34 7 41 18 317 2 1270 Waterfowl areas 9 11 20 32 33 15 340 Eelgrass beds 1 4 5 50 29 16 200 Bottomfish (sport) 24 3 27 3 67 3 480 Bottomfish (commercial) 10 8 18 5 67 540 SJF = Strait of Juan de Fuca PS = Puget Sound Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-26 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-2 (Continued) MARINE RESOURCE SPECIES Intertidal clams Butter clams Littleneck rock clams Pacific hardshell clams Softshell clams Subtidal clams Geoducs Horse clams Bottomfish True cod Black cod Lingcod Red snapper Pollock Rockfish spp. Skate Halibut Sole spp. Flounder Turbot Shrim Spotsided shrimp Pink shrimp Side stripe shrimp Coon stripe shrimp VIII-27 Arthur D Little- Inc species are deepwater pelagic. Sockeye, chum, and pink salmon feed on planktonic crustaceans in this environment; coho and chinook salmon feed on herring, other small fish, squid, and crustaceans. Commercial intertidal marine resources include butter, littleneck, rock, Pacific hardshell, and softshell clams, as well as sea urchins. Subtidal pelagic resources include squid, shrimp species, herring, silver smelt, greenling, and several species of perch. Subtidal benthic resources, which are most commonly harvested by the otter trawl method, include half a dozen species of sole, several species of cod, several species of rockfish, red snapper, halibut, flounder, turbot, pollock and skate, as well as oysters, horse clams, geoduck, and Dungeness crab. The map distribution of these species within north Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca is shown in Figures VIII-15 through VIII-20. The areal extent of these resources, grouped according to major categories (i.e., bottomfish, clams, oysters, etc.) are shown in. Table VIII-2. The economic value of the resources, by fishing area, is shown in Table VIII-3. The total combined value for all non-salmon fishery resources was $9.3 million (1971-73 average) for all Puget Sound-landed resources. North Puget Sound accounted for $1.5 million (16%) of the total; the Strait of Juan de Fuca for $1.7 million (18%) of the total. With respect to these resources, the south Sound is the richest area, accounting for 38% of the total gross value of non-salmon resources. (2) Sports Resources. The major sportsfishing resources of the Puget Sour@d_ area include the marine sports salmon catch, the steelhead catch in anadromous streams, the non-salmonid, bottomfish harvest, and the shellfish harvest (clam and crab). The major difference between sport and commercial fishing is in the mode of catch. Sportfishing uses baited line; commercial fishing uses various types of nets for many . species and is more efficient -- i.e., more fish are caught for the same time spent. Important sports species include 14 species of rockfish, boccaccio, 7 species of sole, speckled sanddab, lingcod, other cod, surf perches, pile and striped seaperch, cabezon, Pacific staghorn sculpin, as well as two greenlings, walleye pollock, and big skate. Major sports- fishing areas were shown in Figures VIII-13 through VIII-16. The areal extent of these grounds was shown in Table VIII-2, the catch by resource area (Figure VIII-12), and imputed economic value at commercial prices is given in Table VIII-4. Sportsfishing is an extremely important recreational activity for residents of the Puget Sound area and to visitors from out of the area, .@with nearly 700,000 angler-trips made in 1973. Sportsfishing is also a means by which people obtain marine resources as food at a cost consid- erably less than ordinary commercial purchase. The total (all Puget Sound) specific catch of 480,400 pounds had an imputed value of $92,000; the incidental catch of 512,000 pounds had an imputed value of $106,300. Waterfowl hunted for sport include many spe .cies of ducks and geese. These birds are considered along with non-hunted birds below. The catch, as given in the Washington Baseline Study: Marine Economic VII-28 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII-15 BOTTOM FISH - STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SOURCE: Washington, Department of 0 5 10 is 20 Natural Resources (1974). Mi k M 0 10 20 30 NORTH VANCOUVER ISLAND C A N A D A V I C T 0 C A P E F'11@IAT T E R @114 @@C4 KEY PORT ANGELES Commercial fishing WASEINGTON M1 Sport fishing (The Strait of Juan de Fuca has been commercially NOTE: Resou of Washingto fished historicaZZy but is is onZy used occasion- resource a re aZly now.) others may b FIGURE VIII- 16 BOTTOM FISH - NORTHERN PUGET SOUND NOTE: Resources shown for State 0 5 10 15 20 of Washington only. Most major Mi resource areas are included but km others may be significant. 0 10 20 30 NORTH SOURCE: Washington, Department of X.1p, ff CANADA Natural Resources (1974). U . S KH EEE**R E RTS Commercial fishing C H E R R Y Sport fishing P T . BELLINGHAM 0 SAN JUAN I S L A N D 0 VICTORIA ANACORTES I,1AJU pl. W H I D B E Y I S L A N D SKAG I T 4e DUNGENESS P 0 R T S P I T ANGELES VIII-30 FIGURE viii-17 INTERTIDAL AND SUBTIDAL RESOURCES - STRAIT OF JUAN DE FU SOURCE: Washington, Department of 0 5 10 is 20 Natural Resources (1974). Mi K M 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A NCOUVER I S L A N 0 C A N A D A C A P E v I C FLATTERY 114 C@4 KEY P 0 R T Clams ANGELES Oysters WASHINGTON Herri ng spawning grounds NOTE: Res of Washing resource a others may FIGURE VIII-18 INTERTIDAL AND SUBTIDAL RESOURCES - NORTHERN PUGET SOUND NOTE: Resources shown for State 0 5 10 15 20 of Washington only. Most major rn resource areas are included but mmw@ k m others may be significant. NORTH 0 10 20 30 SOURCE: Washington Department of CANADA Natural Re@ources (1974). JIM."- .4 M."M Pa., . . . . . . go. KEY Clams C H E R R Y Oysters P 7 14 Herring spawning grounds BELLINGHAM 00 IN SAN JUAN ISLAND -Ps 43 ANACOR111, MRC.H PT. WHIDBEY 0 ISLAND S K A G I T B A Y DUN GENE S S P 0 R I ANGELES VIII-32 4P FIGURE VIII-19 DEEPWATER SHELLFISH - STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA SOURCE: Washington, Department of 0 5 10 is 20 Natural Resources (1974). - Mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH VANCOUVER ISLAND C A N A D A V I C T 0 C A P E F L A T T E R Y <i F-i F-1 F-4 U.) KEY A NPG0ERLTES None Shrimp WASHINGTON Crabs None Scallops NOTE: Resou of Washingto P resource are others may b FIGURE VIII-20 DEEPWATER SHELLFISH - NORTHERN PUGET SOUND NOTE: Resources shown for State 0 5 10 15 20 of Washington only. Most major -M Mi resource areas are included but -- km others may be significant. 0 10 20 30 NORTH X SOURCE: Washington, Department of C-A N A Natural Resources (1974). KEY Shrimp C H E R R Y Crabs P T Scal lops BELLINGHAM 0 0 0 Ir SAN JUAN I S L A N D V I CTORIA (3 ANACORTES MAKH P1. 0 WIHSILDABNEDY SKA D U N G E N E S S P 0 R T S P I T ANGELES A 0 F,r VIII-34 TABLE VIII-3 NON-SALMONID MARINE RESOURCES ECONOMIC VALUE ($1973) Strait of Juan de Fuca SPECIES TOTAL Intertidal - clams* 55,600 Subtidal benthic - bottomf i sh* 1,632,100 crab 7,100 clams* .0 Olympia oysters 0 Pacific & other oysters 2,500 scallops 0 Subtidal pelagic Shrimp* 0 herring 0 North Puget Sound OTHER GULF OF NORTH SPECIES GEORGIA SOUND TOTAL Intertidal - clams* 0 18,000 18,000 Subtidal benthic - bottomfish* 132,900 26,200 159,100 crab 273,200 267,900 541,100 clams* 0 0 0 Olympia oysters 0 0 0 Pacific & other oysters 11,000 415,000 426,000 scallops 100 0 100 Subtidal pelagic - shrimp* 0 27,500 27,500 herring 577,100 370,500 947,600 See Table VIII-2 for listings of species included in this category. Source: 1973 landings for ports as compiled in: Institute for Marine Studies, Washington Baseline Study: Marine Economic Component, (Seattle, August 11, 1975). V -35 III Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-4 SPORT FISHERY - CATCH AND VALUE (a) (b) Specific (c) Incidental Sports Resource Area Salmon Bottomfish Catch (c) Number $1000 Pounds $1000 Pounds $1000 Area 4 70,246 2,914 4,254 0.6 104,309 20.7 Area 5 58,774 2,438 11,077 2.6 108,909 37.7 Area 6 38,623 1,602 27,643 12.9 59,180 20.2 Area 7 25,792 1,240 60,366 14.6 76,717 17.1 Area 8 4,263 205 5,267 1.1 55,785 13.7 (a) See Figure VIII-12 for definition. (b) Average 1968-1972 value in 1973 dollars. (c) 1967 catch weigh is estimate. Source: State of Washington, Department of Ecology. VIII-36 Arthur D Ljttle- lrx-- Com2onent, Final Report, August 1975, amounts to about 300,000 ducks and 10,000 geese annually, for a total imputed value of about $1 million (ducks) and $100,000 (geese). (3) Shorebirds and Offshore Feeders. A list of the major shore- birds and offshore feeding birds of the Puget Sound area is given in the appendix table, "Birds of Puget Sound Coastal Waters," which also details seasonality (resident, migrant), breeding status, and relative abundance in the area. Important shorebird habitats, as indicated in the Washington Marine Atlas, are given in Figures VIII-21 and VIII-22. Population counts are given in Table VIII-5. Generally speaking, the large, shallow bays of the north Sound, with their extensive mudflats and areas of eelgrass, are more important for resident shore and marine birds, and the migratory ducks and geese of the Pacific Flyway than are the narrow bays along the shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Cape Flattery headland area. Shorebirds are generally those species foraging in the intertidal, along beaches, in tidepools and shallow sloughs, ditches, and mudflats. Offshore feeders include diving and surface feeding birds which may rest or nest on offshore islands or rocks, or may come inshore to sand, cobble beaches or rocky headlands for these activities. (4) Marine Mammals. The marine mammals which occur in Puget Sound are of two taxonomic orders -- pinnipeds and cetaceans. Pinnipeds comprise seals and sea lions which regularly "haul out" or rest on rocks or beaches, and have land-based rookeries. Cetaceans -- the whales and porpoises -- are entirely pelagic and never normally come out on land. Pinnipeds of the Puget Sound region include harbor seals and northern and California sea lions. Harbor seals are found in the north Sound, and maintain breeding rookeries; on Smith Island (National Wildlife Refuge) and Protection Island. There is a small population in Padilla Bay, and they are also found scattered throughout the San Juan Islands and the Sucias (C. Fiscus, National Marine Fisheries, pers. commun., 1977). Northern and California sea lions; do not breed in Puget Sound, but some migrate through the straits (Georgia and Juan de Fuca) during the winter months and can be found hauling out off Victoria Island and one or two islands in the north Sound. These animals leave by May to return to their breeding areas. California sea lions move south while northern sea lions breed to the north on the outer coast, maintaining breeding rookeries on the north end of Vancouver Island and in the Queen Charlotte Islands. These same animals, which number several hundred, are thought to be the same population observed to haul out on small islands off the Washington Coast between Grays Harbor and Cape Flattery. Another mammal, the river otter, which is primarily a freshwater carnivore, occurs throughout the San Juan Islands, probably breeds there, and is known to swim from island to island as part of its foraging habits. VIII-37 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII- 21 WATERFOWL AREAS.AND EELGRASS BEDS - STRAIT OF. JUAN- DE FU SOURCE: Washington, Department of 0 @5 .10 15 20 Natural Resources (1974). -- - Mi - IKM 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A N C 0 U V E RI S L A N D C A N A D A VICTO C A P E !114 00 P 0 R T A M G E L E S KEY W A S H I N G T 0 N Eelgrass beds Waterfowl areas NOTE: Reso of Washingt resource ar others may FIGURE VIII-22 WATERFOWL AREAS AND EELGRASS BEDS - NORTHERN PUGET SOUND NOTE: Resources shown for.State 0 5 10 15 20 of Washington only. Most major Mi resource areas are included but - km others may be significant. 0 10 20 30 NORT@i SOURCE: Washington Department of. Natural Re@ources (1974). CANADA S.A. PO I T KEY. 0 R 0 B E R T S Im Eelgrass beds CHERRY "4 PT. Waterfowl areas BELLINGHAM 00 Ir ea SAN JUAN I S L A N 0 43 ANACORTES WCH PT. W H I D B E Y I S L A N D S K A B D 0 N G E N E S S 4@ P 0 R T S P I T A N G E L E S VIII-39 TABLE VIII-5 WATER-RELATED BIRD POPULATIONS FOR SELECTED PUGET SOUND AREAS, 1973, CHRISTMAS BIRD COUNT, AUDUBON SOCIETY1,2 Area observed and number of birds counted Padilla Bay- San Juan Belling- Guemes Isl.- Island- Seattle, Tacoma, ham, Wash. Deception B.C. Wash. Wash. Species group area Pass (boat) area area Total Loons 275 238 125 51 93 782 Grebes 8,051 4,083 383 1,486 915 14,918 Cormorants 231 667 345 131 18 19392 Egrets and hero-is 55 104 6 42 38 245 Swans 30 1 0 0 0 31 Geese and brants 226 8,700 0 86 80 9,092 Ducks 10,494 7,898 772 10,414 412814 339362 Eagles 9 16 8 0 4 37 Ospreys, hawks, and falcons 14 12 1 1 8 36 Rails, coots, oyster catchers 913 123 0 @3,109 690 4,835 Plovers, surfbirds, turnstones 145 179 3,212 60 3,635 Yellowlegs, sniper, sandpipers 5,790 11,1487 0 86 336 17,699 Gulls and terns 4,650 3,270 1,625 3,722 3,224 16,491 Murres 244 640 1,259 104 25S 2,502 Guillanots 6 66 77' 14 24 187 Murrelets 27 145 28 13 11 224 Auklets 0 0 9 55 140 204 (Sncwy) owls 32 79 0 8 1 120 Kingfishers 17 0 2 12 10 41 Ravens and cr,,.ws 0 0 12 0 0 12 Blackbirds and cowbirds 1,604 1,750 4 210 307 3,965 Crossbills and song sparrows 717 750 0 514 69 2,050 TOTAL 3.1,620 40,208 4,696 23,270 10,567 112,361 1 Two other Puget Sound chapters r.ow exist, but their, bird counts are not yet published. They are the Kitsap and Pilchuck chapters, and woull cover the Kitsap County and Everett-Port Gardner Bay areas. 2 The nuilber courted partly reflects the intensity and area of counting, activity, although an attempt is made to count the whole population. For example, the San Juan count wa@; done fron the ferry, Everrreen State, and the count en some beach birdL; may be too small for that reason. Number-- of counting-party hours were: BellinF,ham, 171; Padilla Bay, 118; San Juan Islands, 8; Seattle, 170; Tacoma, 257. Source: American Birds, April 1974, pp. 496-501. (Table taken from Univeristy of Washington, Washington Baseline Study: Marine Economic Component,. 1975). Arthur D Little Inc VIII-40 Cetaceans whicli occur in Puget Sound include killer, humpback, gray and Minke whales, as well as harbor and Dall porpoises. Killer whales are the best studied by tile team at the Seattle Mammal Division of the National Marine Fisheries Service, headed by Allan Wolman and Dale Rice. The whales feed on seals, sea lions, popoises, and sea birds; they occur in Puget Sound at almost all times of the year, with the lowest numbers observed in December through February, and the greatest number in summer. There are thought to be about 65-70 resident killer whales which roam between Race Rocks east of Victoria Islands and southern Puget Sound, probably through Admiralty Inlet. As many as 150 whales have been observed simultaneously in the south Sound, believed by Dr. Michael Bigg of the Canadian research station at Nanaimo to be aggregations of resident and transient animals who have migrated in through the Straits. The resident animals are believed by Dr. Bigg to belong to five family groups (pards) which may breed in Puget Sound; some females have been 6een with newborns. The few animals observed in Skagit Bay are thought to have entered by way of Admiralty Inlet and Saratoga Passage, not through Deception Pass. Humpback whales have been observed off Elliott Bay in the south Sound; these are believed by Rice and Wolman to have entered through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The other large whale, the gray, also enters the Sound through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and from there may head north toward the Strait of Georgia or enter the south Sound through Admiralty Inlet. These whales do not venture east of Whidbey Island off of Belling- ham or into the Skagit flats because the waters are too shallow. Gray whales breed in Southern California in December and gestation lasts 13 months. Humpback whales also breed in warm waters in winter. Minke whales are found off the southern part of Vancouver Island, in and around the San Juans, including Rosario Strait (Wolman, pers. commun.). There are also reports of a population in southern Puget Sound (SOHIO EIS, Volume 2). They breed in the vicinity of the Southern California Channel Islands. Harbor porpoises have been observed in a large number of the small bays of Puget Sound, including most of the bays in the Victoria-San Juan belt. This porpoise is believed to breed in these waters. They are largely absent from the west side of Whidbey Island and frorp. Admiralty Inlet south. Dall porposes are found most times of the year within the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Neah Bay to midway between Port Angeles and Victoria Island. Porposes and whales (except the killer) spend most of their time at the water's surface, unless feeding in deep water or near the bottom. Killer whales spend about half the time at the surface and half in deep dives. (5) Anadromous Fish Streams. A list of the important anadromous fish streams which enter the waters of Puget Sound or the Strait of Juan de Fuca is given in Table VIII-6, which also lists the value of the steelhead catch. Streams located in the north Sound or the strait are potentially within the oil spill impact zone from tanker activities -- the portion of their reach subject to tidal action could be contaminated by oil from a marine spill. Streams with anadromous runs not directly VIII-41 10 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-6 TOTAL CATCH AND VALUE OF STEELHEAD CATCH IN WASHINGTON, 1971-1973 (1973 dollars) Average Average annual value North Puget Sound catch 103 Cascade River 320 640 *Dakota Creek 37 74 Fisher Slough 4 8 Jim Creek 18 36 Kennedy Creek 6 12 eNooksack River 1,514 3,028 Nooksack River North Fork 62 124 Nooksack River South Fork 63 126 Pilchuck Creek 259 518 Pilchuck River 1,789 3,578 Raging River 217 434 PSamish River 2,538 3,076 Sauk River 1@415 2,830 *Skagit River 18,193 36,386 Skykomish River 8,993 17,986 Skykomish River North Fork 600 1,200 Skykomish River South Fork 153 306 Snohomish River 4,831 9,.662 Snoqualmie River 4,202 8,404 eSqualicum Creek 38 76 Stillaguamish River 3,132 6,264 Stillaquamish River North Fork 5,227 10,454 Stillaquamish River South Fork 1,146 2,292 Suiattle 31 62 Sultan River 99 198 Tokul Creek 1,065 2,130 Tolt River 999 1,998 Wallace River 362 724 *Whatcom Creek 4 8 Whidbey Island 28 56 North Sound Subtotal 57,345 114,690 Other Puget Sound Big Beef Creek 22 44 Black River 10 20 Burley Creek 20 40 Carbon Creek 420 840 eChuckanut Creek 9 18 Cedar River (King County) 1,289 2,578 Coal Creek 1 2 VIII-42 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-6 TOTAL CATCH AND VALUE OF STEELHEAD CATCH IN WASHINGTON, 1971-1973 (1973 dollars) (Continued) Average Average annual value Other Puget Sound catch 103 Coulter Creek 30 60 Deschutes River 392 784 Dewatto Creek 184 368 Dosewallips River 519 1,038 Duckabush River 420 840 Duwamish River 142 284 Green River (King County) 14,122 28,244 Hamma Hamma River 102 204 Lake Union Ship Canal 957 1,714 McLane Creek 13 26 Mission Creek 29 58 Nisqually River 1,865 3,730 Puget Sound 1,023 2,046 Puyallup River 6,693 13,386 Quilcene River 273 546 Quilcene River (Little) 28 56 Sammamish River 1,127 2,254 Skokomish River 734 1,468 Skokomish River North Fork 45 90 Skokomish River South Fork 38 76 South 'Prairie Creek 135 270 Tahuya River 318 636 Union River 271 542 Vance Creek 8 16 Lake Washington 80 160 White (Stuck) River 482 964 Other Puget Sound Subtotal 31,801 63,599 Strait of Juan de Fuca *Canyon Creek 210 420 eClallain River 416 836 *Deep Creek 92 184 eDungeness River 2,482 4,964 *East Twin River 71 142 oElwha River 3,136 6,272 eHoko River 454 908 *Lyre River 2,036 4,072 10 VIII-43 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-6 TOTAL CATCH AND VALUE OF STEELHEAD CATCH IN WASHINGTON, 1971-1973 1 (1973 dollars Continued) Average Average annual value Strait of Juan de Fuca catch 103 *McDonald Creek 56 112 *Morse Creek 121 242. oPysht River 1,282 2,564 eSekiu River 73 146 oWest Twin River 110 220 Strait of Juan de Fuca Subtotal 10,767 21,534 GRAND TOTAL, All Areas 99,910 1,998,200 Rivers or streams which empty into'waters within marine transit oil spill impact zone. Value of a single steelhead is assumed to be $20 Source: J. Douglas Sheppard, University of Washington and State Department of Fisheries Unit, May 1973. The estimate is a net benefit basis. Source: Summary of Washington Steelhead Catch (Annual), State of Washington Department of Game, Olympia, Washington. (Table adapted from University of Washington. Washington Baseline Study: Marine Economic Component, 1975) Arthur D Little- Inc VIII-44 within the impact zone may still be affected; a major proportion of the total population which sup*ports the runs will continuously be in the marine environment (the 1-4 or more years the immature adults of ana- dromous f"ish spend feeding in the ocean or other saline waters). (6) Spawning Areas. The waters, marshes, and tidal mudflats of the multiple shallow estuarine bays of Puget Sound serve as breeding and nursery areas for many species of finfish and shellfish. The abun- dance of aquatic food in the form of primary productivity (plants) and secondary productivity (consumers or animals) also makes these areas of intensive use by migratory and resident birds, and by various semi- aquatic or terrestrial mammals. Specific information in map form is available for herring in Figures VIII-17 and VIII-18, and is,somewhat indicative of spawning areas used by other species as well. Herring are important as a commercial bait fish species, but are also important in the marine food chain as the small fish eaten by many larger species which have more direct commercial value as a human food'resource, including salmon. Herring spawning occurs in winter and early spring, and the eggs adhere to eelgrass and seaweed in the low intertidal zone. (7) Threatened or Endangered Specie . The occurrence of rare, threatened or endangered species in the Puget Sound area is given in Table VIII-7. Only one fish and one invertebrate species are listed. Both of these occur only in south Puget Sound: the potentially threatened Olympic mudminnow and the Olympia oyster, both of which are associated with shallow waters and mudflats. Of the whales discussed above under subsection 1-b(4), the gray whale is "potentially threatened" in Washington and "threatened" nationally. Federal surveys conducted along the Washington coast have identified a relatively stable population of less than 500 animals in recent years (State of' Washington Department of Ecology, 1975). The humpback whale is classified as threatened by the U.S. Department of Interior, and is also threatened in Washington. The species was given complete protection in 1966 but the number of animals in the North Pacific population appears not to have increased much over the severely depleted level of 1200 indi- viduals. The humpback, a baleen whale, feeds mainly on krill (euphausiids) but also takes anchovies and sardines. The remaining species listed as threatened or endangered nationally and threatened or potentially threatened in Washington are all birds. The list was compiled from the Washington Department of Ecology publi- cation Marine Shoreline Fauna of Washington: A Status Survey, which lists the known. habitats or siting records for these species. A number of the species occur only occasionally or casually in the Puget Sound area; their location cannot be given specifically. The only nationally endangered species which could occur within the potential zone of oil impact are the short-tailed albatross, a casual visitor to Puget Sound; the trumpeter VIII-45 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-7 OCCURENCE OF RARE OR ENDANGERED SPECIES IN PUGET SOUND AREA Status Nationally Status in Preferred Food/Feeding Records of Factors Management Species (USDI or IUCN Washington Habitats Habit Occurence in 'Associated Recommendations Classification) State Washington with Decline Short- Endangered Accidental Open ocean, Squid, whaling Summers offshore; Decline of tailed oceanic ship scraps casual visitor in whaling albatross islands Puget Sound Plumage hunting Volcanic des- truction of breeding islands White Not threatened Potentially Lakes, bays, Non-commercial Spring & fall Habitat loss Increase usable pelican threatened estuaries, fish, amphibi- migrant, and summer through breeding sites inlPts ans, crusta- resident east of reclamation in eastern WA ceans Cascades projects California Threatened Potentially Shallow Non-commercial Wanders from Breeding ground Strict regulation brown threatened salt waters fish, crusta- Columbia River to disturbances of pesticide usage, pelican near coastal ceans; occa- Puget Sound between Reproductive chemical waste dis- islands or sionally nesting seasons failure due to charge, and indis- in tidal scavenges DOE contamina- criminate shooting rivers tion Trumpeter Endangered Potentially Marshes, Digs for Breeds in eastern Plumage hunting Skagit wintering area swan (as of 1968) threatened lakes, roots, tubers, WA, migrates Habitat loss should be acquired ponds lower.parts of throughout state through agri- aquatic plants and winters in culture Skagit area Lead poisoning Aleutian Endangered Unknown; . Coastal Grazes on May migrate through Native killings Canada may change salt and plants coastal Washington; Predation by Goose to threa- freshwater route undetermined introduced foxes tened marshes California USDI: Threatened Unknown; Rocky Feeds on May still occur on Poisoning Buffer zones around condor IUCN: Endangered perhaps gorges in carrion east and west sides Random killing protected lands; no extinct mountains of Cascades; may be Low natural dams or highways built totally extinct in reproductive through or around WA rate present sanctuary TABLE VIII-7 (Continued) Status Nationally Status in Preferred Food/Feeding Records of Factors Management Species (USDI or IUCN Washington Habitats Habit Occurence in Associated Recommendations Classifica-tion) State Washington with Decline Peale's Criticallv Unknown but Open country- Birds WA ic southern Habitat Elmnate food=chai@ peregrine endangered should be meadows, edge of breeding destruction pesticides falcon considered marshes, area, Puget Sound a Persecution by Artificial propagation threatened beaches, major wintering non prairies area Falconry Arctic Following same Threatened Tundra Birds A rare migrant Pesticide Studies and education peregrine pattern as through Washington effects in Artificial propagation falcon Peregrine falcon, wintering now Endangered grounds Mountain Not endangered Potentially Dense brush, Grubs, insects, Resides in lower Habitat Preserve timber and quail threatened coniferous berries, seeds Puget Sound (Olym- destruction brush growth in south- forests, pia, Bremerton), through devel- eastern and western WA canyon southeast WA; in opment thickets, drainages of Cows woodland Creek, Snake & borders Columbia Rivers Black Not endangered Potentially Rocky Mollusks, Permanent resident Loss of habitat Possible acquisition oyster- threatened coastlines crustaceans, in St. of Juan de of key habitat areas X__ catcher and marine worms, Fuca and San Juan islands insects Islands Western Not threatened Potentially Sandy dunes Small marine Winters & breeds in Loss of breed- Restriction of rec- snowy threatened above high- organisms coastal southern WA ing habitat reational use of sand plover water, also Fall & spring dune areas during upland migrant along coast breeding season dunes May be found in Possible acquisition dunes of eastern WA of key habitat areas California Not endangered Non- Open salt Mice, small Nests in summer in Dams on gull breeders: water, fish, garbage eastern WA. Non- Columbia River Satisfactory sandy at dumps breeders occur on flooding Breeders: shores, mud coast in summer remaining Threatened flats, salt nesting areas marsh Nests on islands in rivers and lakes inland TABLE VIII-7 (Continued) Status Nationally Status in Preferred Food/Feeding Records of Factors Management Species (USDI or IUCN Washington Habitat Habit Occurrence in Associated Recommendations Classification) State Washington with Decline Caspian Not threatened Potentially Sandy Small fish, WA is northern edge Human distur- Artificial propagation tern threatened beaches shrimp, mus- of breeding range bance on beaches Protection of colonies above high sels, eggs and Nesting colonies in Gull competition from human disturbance tide young of other eastern WA; migrates and predation in birds throught western WA nesting areas during fall & spring Western Not threatened Potentially Arid open Insects, small Resident of eastern Plowing & cul- Discontinue/limit burrowing threatened country -- rodents, WA; rarely found in tivation pesticides owl adopts old crayfish western WA, except Rancher perse- Isolate and protect ground in restricted cution remnant populations squirrel coastal areas in Pesticide burrows winter poisoning Spotted Very uncommon, Potentially Wet coni- Rodents, Resides west of Removal of old Absolute protection of owl vulnerable threatened ferous insects, small Cascades, breeds in growth timber environment surrounding (USDI) forests, birds North Cascades, innountains nesting sites 4-' deeply along Hoh River and Recreation and Preservation of old 00 wooded at Ross Lake construction growth timber canyons activities (virgin timber) Pileated Not threatened Potentially Deep woods, Beetles, ants, Resides and breeds Habitat Refuges of adequate woodpecker threatened original fruits, chest- throughout forested destruction by virgin timber stands forest nuts, acorns, areas of WA, east logging growth grubs and west of Cascades Humpback USDI: Threatened Threatened Open ocean; Zooplankton, Accidental occur- Whaling Creation of inshore whale IUCN: Endangered migrates sardines and rence while migra- industry sanctuaries in coastal anchovies ting in St. of San overexploita- waters Juan de Fuca, Puget tion Sound, during spring and fall TABLE VIII-7 (Continued) Status Nationally Status in Preferred Food/Feeding Records of Factors Management Species (USDI or IUCN Washington Habitats Habit Occurrence in Associated Recommendations Classification) State Washington with Decline Golden Not threatened Threatened Arid Birds and Resident east and Loss of habitat Define, patrol and eagle plateaus small animals west of Cascades Reduction of possibly purchase with Winters in upper food sources nesting areas canyons Skagit River near Pesticide poi- Redesign transmission Sedro Wooley soning lines Breeds in eastern Ranchers' WA shootings Electrocution Northern Not threatened Potentially Seacoasts, Live and dead Breeds west of Loss of habitat Create "no logging" bald threatened lakes, mammals, birds Cascades and food supply zones in nesting areas eagle rivers and fish Winters on Olympic Pesticide poi- Protect, patrol and/or Peninsula, San Juan soning and purchase known nesting Islands, and Skagit effects spots 41 & Nooksack Rivers Shootings Electrocution Osprey Not threatened Potentially Seacoasts, Fish, plus Breeds in WA Habitat des- Continue ban on DDT threatened rivers, some birds and Found in Strait of truction No logging, no vehicles, lakes, small mammals Juan de Fuca, Puget Predation on no camping in zones reservoirs, Sound, Snoqualmie eggs (-. 200 ft) around with ele- Nat'l Forest, Sno- Pesticide nesting trees vated in- qualmie Pass, Sno- effects accessible homish River, and nesting Skagit County sites (<IO nests) Peregrine Endangered Threatened Sandy Large and Breeds rarely in WA Pesticide State-regulated refuges falcon shores, wet small birds Resides in lowlands poisoning and around known nesting coniferous both east & west of reduction of sites forests, Cascades, nests in reproductive farmland Olympic and Cascade success Mountains Habitat des- truction Shooting, falconry TABLE VIII-7 (Continued) Status Nationally Status in Preferred Food/Feeding Records of Factors Management Species (USDI or IUCN Washington Habitat Habit Occurrence in Associated Recommendations Classification) State Washington with Decline Columbian Endangered Potentially Mosaic Grazing Reside in flood. Loss of habitat Establish a breeding white- threatened of open plains of Lower Poisoning by colony tailed pasture Columbia River, cattle and deer and wooded and possibly as landowners cover far north as Hunting Willapa Bay Olympia Not listed Threatened Bays, Phyto- and Found only in Overharvesting Halting su lfite oyster sounds, zooplankton southern Puget Sulfite waste waste liquor discharge deep Sound: Oyster, liquor into southern Puget channels, Mud, South, pollution Sound tide pools Oakland, North and Rock Bays swan which is known to winter in the Skagit area; and possibly the Aleutian Canada goose, which may migrate through coastal Washington. All of these species are at least potentially threatened within Washington. 2. Terrestrial Environment - Pipelines a. Northern Tier Pipeline-Peninsula Link (1) Location. The Northern Tier Pipeline would establish a marine terminal at Port Angeles suitable for off-loading between 500,000 and 1.3 million barrels per day (B/D) from Alaska and foreign sources intended for transshipment to the Northern Tier states. The Peninsula Link is the first portion of that pipeline. It will comprise either a 40-in or a 42-in pipeline, depending upon the implementation of the Puget Spur (discussed in subsection 3) intended to supply the existing refineries along the eastern shore of Puget Sound. The Peninsula Link itself stretches 170 miles: from Port Angeles along the Strait of Juan de Fuca down the eastern side of the peninsula along the Hood Canal; it runs south of the City of Olympia and skirts the urban areas of the Puyallup River valley to reach an intersection in the vicinity of Selleck or North Bend between the Green and Snoqualmie Rivers (Figures VIII-23 and VIII-24). This intersection is the terminus of the Puget Spur and the origin of the East Washington link discussed below. The route of the Peninsula Link discussed in this study was obtained from maps contained within the Northern Tier site certification a part of the application made by the Northern Tier Pipeline Company to the State of Washington Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council. The route appears to be based on preliminary engineering studies and 70% of it follows an existing Bonneville Power Administration transmission line right-of-way or other existing rights-of-way. If the Northern Tier proposal is to be implemented the pipeline route along the Peninsula Link will be subject to more intensive investigation in order to minimize construction and capital costs and to reduce right- of-way expense and damage; however, a final route would probably be similar to that depicted in this study; other than a submarine pipeline across Admiralty Inlet extending toward the eastern shore of Puget Sound, few alternatives are available. Such a submarine proposal was considered in earlier years but has an element of construction costs and risks which offset a savings of approximately 50 miles of onshore pipeline. (2) Land Use. Land use information for the five segments of the Northern Tier Pipeline-Peninsula Link is summarized in Tables VIII-8 through VIII-13. Land use is broken down into three major categories -- forest, agriculture, and urban land -- with special designations for riparian corridors and rights-of-way. The information was developed using USGS topographic map information and reflects the level of detail possible with these maps, most of which are at the I inch = 2000 feet scale. VIII-51 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII-23 LOCATION NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK & EAST WASHINGTON LINK "V) 2 MAlb- --.-d 1- ;o o C .. Ed,, D Is'.. I, P 911, -7 Port Tow nd "nt H 7@- VEW 41- hS I-. I @,h,TY Ed s nd n 1. d-d )s 18R N X h' N ITT Al T SELLECK, a M A 0 ay @, @N TV TO com Apri Lak od I L41 @Pu Ya@l I @u k1a d d. B" 01y.pa ,e4 0 A@ PE ps I /lE 0 N ql?, t OM r),1 0 10 20 mi km 0 10 20 30 11.@ SOURCES: NORTH Northern Tier Pipeline Co., "Site Certification", July 6, 1976. VIII-52 FIGURE VIII-24 ROUTE SCHEMATIC: PENINSULA LINK & EAST WASHINGTON LINK ..................... .............. PORT ANGELES ... ... EVERETT :bd 414* SEATTLE X x . .... ... .... SELLECK .. ...... STAMPEDE PASS 41@ TACOMA 4k L1 V*, OLYMPIA 0 10 70 m k 0 10 20 30 A SOURCES: NORTH Northern Tier Pipeline Co.,, "Site Certification", July 6, 1@76. m VIII-53 TABLE VIII-8 T NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LLNK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Morse Creek to Sequim Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Ag@iculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 18.64 100 67 7.9 25 0 New Right-of-Way 0 Total 18.64 100 VIII-54 Arthur D little- Inc TABLE V111-8. (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Morse Creek to Sequim Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Morse Creek 20001 Blue Mountain Road None Significant Bagley Ck. 200' O'Brien Rd. Siebart Ck. 400' Bagley Ck. Rd. Emery Ck. 200' Deer Park Rd. Pederson Ck. 300' East Mt. Pleasant Rd. Jimmy-come-lately Ck. 1200' Johnson Ck. 200' Dean Ck. 200' Woods Rd. 4 Unnamed Cks. 200' Palo Alto Rd. 6 Unnamed Rds. fD TABLE VIII-9 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 2:Gardiner to The Brothers Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 33.64 87.6 92 1.5 6.3 0 New Right-of-Way 4.78 12.4 70 7.1 18 5.1 Total 38.42 100 VIII-56 Arthur D Ljttle Irx. TABLE VIII-9t.(Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 2: Gardiner to The Brothers Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Salmon Ck. 7000' West Uncas Rd. (2x) Quilcene None Significant Snow Ck. 200' Olympic Highway Brinnon Little Quilcene R 8200' Spur Rd. (5x) Big Quilcene R Highway 101 (2x) Lindsay Rd. Duckabush R 220C' Duckabush Rd. Spencer Ck. 200' 9 Unnamed Rds. Jackson Ck. 200' Turner Ck. 200' McDonald Ck. 200' 3 Unnamed Cks. 250' Waketickeh Ck. 250' Hamma Hamma R 500, John Ck. 250' 2 Unnamed 250' Jorsted Ck. 250' Eagle Ck. 250' NEW RIGHT OF WAY Dosewallips R 5000, Dosewallips Rd. > Walkers Ck. 200' 1 Unnamed Rd. TABLE VIII-10 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 3: Potlatch to Shelton Segment % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 28.38 74.8 94 0.9 4.3 0.4 New Right-of-Way 9.56 25.2 89 1.2 2.6 10 Total 37.94 100 VIII-58 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-10 (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK -Pipeline Segment Summary Segmen 4' 3: Potlatch to Shelton Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings lype Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Lilliwaup Ck. 520' 1 Unnamed Rd. None Significant Sund Ck. (2x) 520' 1 Unnamed Rd. Skokomish Indian (6x) Reservation Town Finch Ck. 520' 1 Unnamed Rd. (2x) Skokomish R. 5200' Miller Ck. 520' Perry Ck. 520' Highway 90 Northern Pacific RR U.S. Route I Hicklin Rd. 12 Unnamed Rds. Kennedy Ck. 1040' Skookum Ck. 2600' NEW RIGHT OF WAY NONE TABLE VIII-11 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary segment 4: Tumwater to Frederickson Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 16.60 39.1 61 1.4 35 2.3 New Right-of-Way 25.83 60.9 53 2.9 35 8.7 Total 42.42 100 VIII-60 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-11 (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 4: Tumwater to Frederickson Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban St-ream Width Railroaa Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY McLane Ck. 2200' McKenzie Rd. Lamberts Corner None Significant Deschutes R. 4400' Zeller Rd. South Ck. 200' Algyer Rd. Roy Christy Rd. Harts Lake Loop Rd. Taylor Rd. Hawk Rd. Mathias Webster Rd. Highway 101 Davis Rd. Thrift Extension Rd. Orting Kopowsin Rd. CMSP&P RR 2 Unnamed Roads NEW RIGHT OF WAY Black R. 3000' 2 Unnamed Rds. Marsh Surrounding Black R. 550 Ac. Salmon Ck. 2800' Tilly Rd. Marsh 175 Ac. 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' Case Rd. Prairies (3) 6600' 1 Unnamed Ck. 600' Nunn Rd. Prairie Weir 11,400- Yelm Ck. 1000, Interstate 5 Prairie 12,000' Nisqually R. 30001 Lathrop Rd. Marsh 130 Ac. Centralia Canal 200' Little Rock Rd. Flume Yelm Ditch 200' Black Lane I Unnamed Ck. 200' 3 Unnamed Rds. TABLE VIII-11 (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 4: Tumwater to Frederickson (con't) Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream t,,'i dth Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY NEW RIGHT OF WAY 1 Unnamed Ck. 400' 3 Unnamed Rds. None Significant Burlington Northern RR Union Pacific RR Offutt Lake Rd. Hubbard Rd. State 507 Morris Rd; Vail Loop Rd. Bald Hill Rd. Hannus Rd. Harts Lake Loop McKennan Rd. Allen Rd. Tisch Rd. Tisch Rd. North 14 Unnamed Rds. C7 0 0 TABLE VIII-12 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 5: Orting to Cumberland Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right.@-of-Way 19.89 61.3 80 4.0 15 0.4 New Right-of-Way 12.53 38.7 57 3.6 20 20 Total 32.42 100 VIII-63 Arthur.D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-12 (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: PENINSULA LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 5: Orting to Cumberland -Canyon Road and Urban Sensitive Area Crossings Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings @Feet) Crossings Crossings Dpe Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Puyallup R. 12001 Fiske Rd. Marsh 250 Ac. Coplar Ck. 200' Highway 162 Voight Ck. 400' Northern Pacific RR 1 Unnamed Ck, 6001 Patterson Rd. Carbon R. 1200' Tubbes Rd, 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' Johns Rd. Deep Ck. 200' Green R. 1000' Burlington Northern RR Northern Pacific RR 9 Unnamed Rds. [JEW RIGHT OF WAY Wilkeson Ck. 6001 Spiketon Rd. Buckley vicinity South Prairie Ck., 600' Pipeline Rd. Enumclaw vicinity White Rd. 3 SO 0 Boise Ck. 200' 276th Ave. SE Newaukum Ck. 200' 284th Ave. SE 2 Unnamed Ck. 2001 Highway 410 Coal Ck. 200' SE 408th St. SE 392D St. > 6 Unnamed Rds. 40 TABLE VIII-13 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE - PENINSULA LINK Land Use Summary Average Segment Slope of Miles on C4. Road and JLream Crossings Segment Length Route Right % of % % % 0 Railroad Name - (Miles) % of-Way_ Segment Forest Agric. Riparian Urban Major Minor Crossings Morse Creek to 18.64 5.8 18.64 100 67 25 7.9 0 1 11 13 Sequim 0 0 0 0 0 Gardiner to 38.42 8.8 33.64 87.6 91.5 6.3 1.5 0 4 15 15 the Brothers 4.78 12.4 70.2 17.6 7.1 5.1 1 1 2 Potlatch to 37.94 7.6 28.38 74.8 94.4 4.3 0.9 0.4 1 7 27 Shelton 9.56 25.2 88.5 2.6 1.2 10.3 0 3 7 Tumwater to 42.42 2.1 16.60 39.1 61.3 35.0 1.4 2.3 1 2 15 Frederickson 25.83 60.9 53.0 35.4 2.9 8.7 3 7 4 3 01 Ln Orting to 32.42 4.8 19.89 61.3 80.3 15.3 4.0 0.4 3 6 17 Cumberland 12.53 38.7 56.5 19.9 3.6 19.9 1 7 13 Total 169.84 117.15 69.0 10 41 87 52.69 31.0 5 18 65 BOLDFACE = Existing Right-of-Way ITALIC New Right-of-Way Figure VIII-25 shows which quadrangles are intersected by the Northern Tier route (Peninsula and East Washington links). The environmental setting is broken down into segments, each roughly corresponding to areas of like terrain or similar degree of urbanization. The segments are named for the quadrangles which serve as inclusive end points. 0 Segment I - Morse Creek to Sequim The first segment of the route leaves Port Angeles and runs roughly 0 parallel to the shoreline of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, all on existing transmission line right-of-way. Three-quarters of its 19-mile length is in forest and the remaining quarter is intensive agriculture. Thus, the existing transmission line route crosses 11 public rights-of-way, all of which are light- to medium-duty local roads (Figure VIII-26). It 0 also crosses seven named drainages, the most important of which is the Dungeness River (Figure VIII-27). This segment of the pipeline route traverses no urban areas and is moderately flat. & Segment 2 - Gardiner to the Brothers The second segment of the route traverses the mountainous area of 0 the Olympic Peninsula just west of the Hood Canal. Seven-eighths (33 miles) of the total corridor length in this segment traverses existing right-of-way. That portion of the line is 93% in timberland and the remainder is in agriculture. Only about 5 miles of this segment will require construction of new right-of-way through about three-and-one-half 0 miles of forest land, one mile of agricultural land, and about one-fourth mile of urban land -- the communities of Brinnon and Qpilcene. The pipeline will cut directly through the center of these small highway towns on U.S. 101. The existing transmission line right-of-way crosses three minor roads and two major highways -- U.S. 101 and the Olympic Highway -- in addition to five riparian corridors of which four are 0 major streams (see Table VIII-10). The new right-of-way segment crosses three minor roads and one major riparian corridor, the Dosewallips River. The proposed route in this segment traverses an area of occasionally quite steep mountainous terrain. The overall average slope of the route align- ment is nearly 9%. 0 Segment 3 - Potlatch To Shelton The third segment of the Peninsula link, nearly 40 miles in length, traverses the southern portion of the eastern edge of the Olympic Penin- sula, running parallel to the Hood Canal. Roughly three-quarters of this segment is proposed to follow within an existing transmission line corri- dor. Of the 28-mile total, 95% is forested land and the remainder is agriculture with the exception of about one mile of line crossing an urban area -- the vicinity of the town of Shelton. One-quarter of the proposed route in Segment 3, roughly nine miles of forested lands and one mile of agricultural lands. will require clearing a new right-of-way. The existing transmission line right-of-way in Segment 3 crosses 11 trans- 40 portation corridors, of which three are relatively major highways in this Vill-66 Arthur D Little, Inc FIGURE VIII-.25 USGS TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS ALONG PENINSULA LINK & EAST WASHINGTON LINK PORT AN 611 THf BROTH RS 1947 PCTLATCH BANDERA SNOQUALMIE 937-52 19bo PASS S I 1A ON -1AK1- f A 1A AW GRI NWAILR H I NO I !m 4 193 71 0 10 20 m wmmmmwwm=====@ km 0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH Northern Tier Pipeline Co., "Site Certification", July 6. 1976. G 5ws mi E @V AL 140 VIII-67 FIGURE VIII-26 MAJOR TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR CROSSINGS: PENINSULA LINK & EAST WASHINGTON LINK XX::. PORT ANGELES EVERETT ;qx: SEATTLE 4ft SELLECK STAYIPEDE PASS 10 *silo T OW1 10 PIA off Transportation Corridors 0 10 20 mi - --- km Majdr roads 0 10 20 30 ..... Ral I roads SOURCES: 14ORTH Arthur D. Little, Inc. vill-68 FIGURE VIII- 27 MAJOR STREAM CROSSINGS: PENINSULA LINK & EAST WASHINGTON LINK PORT A ELES q 2 3 EVERETT 4 5 6 SEATTLE 44 17 8 LLEC 16 STAMPEDE PASS lo 14 4r 414 TACOMA 9 YMPIA 15 10 #01 13 12 Rivers 0 10 20 m 1- Morse Cr. km 2- Dungeness R. 0 10 20 30 3- Quilcene R. 4- Little Quilcene R. SOURCES: NORTH 5- Dosewallips R. Arthur D. Little, Inc. 6- Duckabush R. 12 -Deschutes R. 7- Hamma Hamma R. 13 -Nisqually R. 8- Skokomish R. 14 -Puyallup R. 9- Skookum Cr. 15 -Carbon R. 10 - Kennedy Cr. 16 -Green R. F 11 Black R. 17 -Cedar R. VIII-69 region, including State Highway 84 west and 108 (Figure VIII-26). It crosses seven riparian corridors, the most important of which is the Skokoinish River (Figure VTI.1-27). The new right-of-way segment will, c.ross five minor roads and three creeks. Tlie proposed rouLe in the segment is moderately steel), with ;in average fine Slope of- 7.6Z. Segment 4 - Tumwater to Fredrickson The fourth segment of the Peninsula Link runs in largely an east- west direction across the flatlands and prairies of south Puget Sound. About four-tenths (17 miles) of the route is with an existing trans- mission line right-of-way, about 10 of the 16 miles run through forested lands and about five miles run through farmlands; the remaining miles cross the urban community of Lamberts Corner. The existing right-of-way portion crosses 13 transportation corridors, including State Highway 161 (Figure VIII-26). Four drainages are involved, the largest of which is the Deschutes River (Figure VIII-27). Approximately 26 miles of Segment 4 requires the construction of a is new corridor of which about 1-4 miles must pass through wooded lands, eight miles will pass through non-wooded lands, and about two miles will have to cross relatively urban areas. The non-wooded lands in this instance comprise both agriculture and five of the Puget prairies, including Weir and Ychii. The prairies are described in subsection 2-a(3), Terrestrial Biology. A total of 30,000 feet of- p:ipeline will. cut across one or another of these prairies. In all, 27 transportation corridors @will be interrupted by pipeline construction, including Interstate 5, State Highway 507, and the Union Pacific Railroad (Figure VIII-26). The route will require construction across five riparian corridors, including both the Black River and the Nisqually River (Figure VIIT-27). The terrain in Segment 4 is quite flat, with an average pipeline slope of only 2%. 0 Segment 5 - Orting to Cumberland Segment 5 runs northeast on the eastern side of Puget Sound from the Puget prairies toward Snoqualmie Pass. Four-tenths of the segment, about 20 miles, requires expansion of an existing transmission line right-of-way and the reamining 12.5 miles will. require new right-of-way corridor. About 17 miles of the existing transmission line corridor runs through wooded lands, and all of the remaining three miles runs through agricultural lands with the exception of a small segment which crosses an urbanized area. TI)e rotiLe intersects 13 transportation corridors, all roads, including State lligliway 162 (FIgUre V111-26). lt: al.so crosses six creeks and three rivers -- the PtiyallLip, Girl-wil, in(] Green (Figure VIIT-27). Where new right-of-way is required, about 7.5 miles of the corridor will have to be constructed through forested lands, aboul: 2.5 through agri- cultural lands, and about 2.5 miles will affect the urban settlements in the vicinity of Buckley and Enumclaw. Construction of the new right-of-way VIII-70 Arthur D Little, Inc segment will require crossing 18 major roads, including State Highway 162 in two places and State Highway 410. Three riparian corridors are involved, the most important of which is the White River. The terrain in this segment is moderately flat but becomes steeper in the more north- eastern. portion. The overall average line slope is about 5%. (3) Terrestrial Biology. The Northern Tier Pipeline route has been divided into several separate links based on district topography, vegetational components of the route, and degree of adjacent urbanization. Five segments, each composed over seveeral contiguous USGS quadrangle maps, have been designated between the western terminus at Port Angeles (Morse Creek) and the eastern terminus near North Bend to the east of Tacoma. (See Figure VIII-25 and discussion under subsection 2-a(2).) Throughout much of the peninsula route the proposed pipeline is intended to follow the existing transmission line right-of-way, running first south to the south Sound-Olympia area and then east toward the Cascades. Portions of tlic route will liave to traverse open country not yet included within a utilLty right-of-way. These will receive additional attention as they are likely Lo have even greater iinpact. Segment 1 - Morse Creek to Sequim As can be seen from Table VIII-11, the Northern Tier Pipeline leading from the tank farm terminus in the Morse Creek area to Sequim is a segment roughly 20 miles long which traverses an area 75% wooded, of which 14% also represents riparian corridors. The corridors include two major drainiages -- Morse Creek and the Dungeness River. The latter has a floodplain 8200 feet wide, Although within the boundaries of the Puget Sound western hemlock zone,;ithe forest composition of this link is at the drier end of the rain shadow zone of the Olympic mountains. In these forests, the typical successional forms of red cedar, Douglas fir, big leaf maple, and alder are also'interspersed by drier habitat species, including the Oregon white oak and Pacific madrone. Other species W characteristic of the drier sites include Rocky Mountain juniper, scouler willow, and cascara. The riparian zones are dominated by the character- istic species -- black cottonwood, Oregon ash, red alder, and Pacific willow. Characteristic wildlife associated with these woods are listed in Appendix B. dk 0 Segment 2 Gardiner to the Brothers The next segment, approximately 40 miles long, traverses an area of steep terrain at the eastern edge of the Olympic mountains with an average slope of almost 9% and then parallels the northern Hood Canal for some distance. (See Table VIII-9.) Ninety-one percent of the area traversed by the pipeline right-of-way is forested. Of this, nearly 10% is riparian cor- ridor including the drainages of five major streams and rivers and three minor creeks (Figure VIII-27). The forest composition of the wooded lands is similar to that of the more northern segment. The power line scar north VIII-71 Arthur D Little, Inc of Brinnon is very evident with much bare ground and some small Douglas fir, grand fir, and maple invading. The most successful recolonizer of the scar is alder, but all the species are doomed by right-of-way maintenance. The area south of Brinnon-Pleasant Harbor comprises a large, rela- tively mature, dense forest with the western red cedar, Douglas fir, grand fir, big leaf maple, alder, and madrone as the dominant species. The area appears to have been subjected to logging activities at the turn of the century and has since recovered. Now it is an intermediate successional, mixed deciduous/coniferous forest, characteristic of much of the route along the eastern edge of the Olympic Peninsula. 0 Segment 3 - Potlatch to Shelton The third segment of the route is also roughly 40 miles long and also traverses mountainous country with an average slope of 7.6%. This segment parallels the southern portion of the Hood Canal and traverses an area which is 94% wooded, of which 8% is riparian corridor (Table VIII-10). Of the riparian portion, eight are minor streams and there is only one major river traversed, the Skokomish River (Figure VIII-15). A, large portion of this segment does not follow the existing transmission line, but traverses open country including a Christmas tree farm north of Shelton and an area of dense seeded, even aged Douglas fir forest which grades into a mixed Douglas fir, grand fir, and lodge pole pine forest with an understory of salal and sword fern. The pipeline would again be within the general alignment of the transmission line in the vicinity of the frontage road at Kennedy Creek. The scar representing the various phases of transmission line construction is continuously undergoing revegetation by weedy species, including a number of grasses, ferns, umbels, and composites, as well as some young trees -- red cedar and Douglas fir. There are stump sprouts of a few of the former large, old cedars which were cleared for the transmission line construction. The entire scar has the appearance of an old field pasture land which is slowly undergoing successional change to a mixed deciduous/ coniferous forest resembling the adjoining woods. The dominant species in the woods in addition to those just mentioned include Pacific madrone, a dry site indicator, and a shrub layer composed of snowberry, vine maple, and baldhip rose. 0 Segment 4 - Tumwater to Frederickson The fourth segment of the Peninsula Link is also approximately 40 miles long and traverses an area which is markedly different from the previous portions in both its topography and vegetational composition (Table VIII-11). In contrast to the previous mountainous segments, this segment is largely flat, with an average line slope of only 2.1%. Only 60% is forested land, of which about 10% is riparian growth, including the VIII-72 Arthur D buk Inc drainage of three major and six minor streams. Areas of typical mixed sticcessioitil woodkmd ,,iv(, w.-iy Lo -i iiumber of unique environments in Puget Sound. The extensive long-standing prairies are thought to have developed as a result of the occurrence of droughty, gravelly soils derived from glacial outwash materials as well as low summer precipitation and historic frequent burning by natural causes including the native population and possibly also white settlers. Prairies traversed by the pipeline right- of-way in this forest segment include Bush, Rocky, Weir, and Yelm prairies. The vegetation literature indicates that the species composition of these prairies is unique, consisting of Idaho Fescue, a native bunch grass with the intermediate intervening spaces covered by a moss layer. The moss layer is penetrated by long stoloned sedge, broad leaf shooting star, common camas, northwestern saxifrage, Idaho blue-eyed grass, thrift, western. long spur, and upland yellow violets, as well as meadow death camas and Puget balsam root. Many of the species present indicate very high soil mosture content during the winter and early spring. In recent times, many of these prairies have been subject to invasion by Douglas fir and Oregon white oak, and such invasion has been accelerated by improved fire protection on the prairies. This invasion indicates the prairies are not stable successiona-Ily, but the combination of soil type and precipitation profile ind.icate that the Puget -lowland in this area may become recognized as a separate and special vegetated zone, more similar to the coastal Douglas fir zone in British Columbia than to the remainder of the western hemlock zone surrounding Puget Sound. The pipeline route in this segment is also expected to traverse several low-lying marshy areas, possibly including the marsh south of Offutt Lake and another marsh in the vicinity of the intersection of Hawk Peterson and McKenna roads. This could have special significance because such marshes are important habitat for a large number of species of birds found in the general Puget Sound area (see Appendix B). Such marshes should be considered ecologic sensitive areas, deserving of special consideration in mitigating potential environmental impact. 0 Segment 5 - Orting to Cumberland The remaining segment south of the Puget Spur is approximately 30 miles long and traverses an area which is intermediate in a. number of ways between Segments I Lhrough 3 and Segment 4 (Table V111-12). Roughly 75% of the land traversed by the route is forest and the terrain is moderately flat with an average line slope of 4.8%. About 7% of the area designated woodland is also riparian, including the drainages of three major streams or rivers and nine minor streams (Figure VIII-27). This final segment has the greatest proportion of urban land traversed (8%) of the 32 miles. This segment is beyond the zone of the most significant south Puget prairie lands, but the route could cross two marshes -- the marsh of Forest Lake and another unnamed marsh in the Orting quadrangle. The total area of marsh which could be affected by the project is 300 acres. The woodland vegetation of this segment is in most places a well VIII-73 Arthur D Little- Inc developed late successional mixed deciduous/coniferous forest, having a shrub understory in some portion. Those segments of the proposed route most remote from urban settlement, largely the portion extending from Muskrat Lake across the Green River and the flatland west and north of Sugar Loaf Mountain, are in the less disturbed, late seral condition. b. Northern Tier Pipeline - East Washington Link (1) Lo ca L-i oii-.From the Sclleck-NorLh Beiid vicinit.y, the Northern 'J" i c rPLpel hic rollLc heads east hil-o the Ciscadc r;nige. Pi-oiii there a 40- inch pipeline w-LIA run approxhiiately 32 miles tip Lhe st:eep Green River gorge to Stampede Pass at an eLevaLioii of 4460 feet. From Stampede Pass the pipeline runs through eastern Washington and across the states of Idaho, Montana and North Dakota to Bagley, Minnesota. Since Stampede Pass lies at the crest of the Cascade Range, it marks the watershed boundary of the Puget Sound and eastern Washington areas and also marks the boundary between King County, a coastal county, and Kittitas County, an inland county. Since the concern of this study is with the coastal impacts as defined by the federal and state Coastal Zone Management legislation, the impact of the Northern Tier pipeline east of Stampede Pass will not be addressed. The East Washington Link discussed in this study refers to the portion of the Northern Tier Pipe- line between Selleck and Stampede Pass (Figures VIII-23 and VIII-24). (2) Land Use. Segment I - Selleck to Stampede Pass The East Washington Link has only one segment; it runs approximately due east between the end points of SeLleck and Stampede Pass. The great majority of this link (28 out of 31 miles) uses the existing rights-of-way of power transmission lines or of the Burlington-Northern railroad. Of the existing right-of-way portion, about 24 miles crosses heavily wooded timberland, much of which is in the Green River watershed. The Green River provides the major water supply source for the City Am of Tacoma (Figure VII1-27). The line enters the Green River watershed as it parallels the Howard Hanson Reservoir in the vicinity of Bandera. About 2.5 miles of the existing right-of-way intersect riparian zones, including two crossings of the Green River itself and 17 creeks. No agricultural lands are crossed, but about a mile of Segment I passes through urban development areas -- the communities of Kangley and Stampede and the vicinity of Lester. The existing right-of-way portion crosses 16 minor roads and two railroad lines. Nearly all (3.2 out of 3.4 miles) of the East Washington Link requiring new right-of-way will cut through wooded lands of the Snoqualmie National Forest. Three minor creeks are crossed within this segment, totaling one-tenth mile of riparian zone. No agriCLI-Ittiral. lands or Urban areas are encountered in this shorL segment. One road crossing is involved (See Table VIII-14 and Figure V111-26). VIII-74 Arthur D LittIc Inc TABLE VIII-14 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: EAST WASHINGTON LINK Pipeline Segment Summary SEGMENT 1: Selleck(Kangley)to Stampede Pass Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 27.76 89.2 87.6 8.5 0 3.9 New Right-of-Way 3.36 10.8 96.4 3.6 0 0 Total 31.12 100 VIII-75 Arthur D Uttle, Inc TABLE VIII-14 (Continued) NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE: EAST WASHINGTON LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Selleck (Kangley) to Stampede Pass Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT70F-WAY 3 Unnamed Cks. 200' 16 Unnamed Rds. Kangley reservoir Howard Hanson 1536 ac. (T Nort. Pac. RR (2x) lacoma Watershed) I Unnamed Ck. 2900' Lester vicinity 1 Unnamed Ck. 200' Stampede Sylvester Ck. 200' Cougan Ck. 2001 Smay Ck. 200' McCain Ck. 200' 4 Unnamed Cks. 200' Friday Ck. 2001 Green Ck. (24 600-/400- 2 Unnamed Cks. 2001 2 Unn6med Cks. 500' NEW RIGHT-OF-WAY 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' Anacortes Rd. reservoir Howard Hanson 1536 ac. Piling Ck. 2001 pond Page Mill nearby 5.5 ac. The one segment of the East Washingtoii Unk heads cast from Selleck up the western slope OF Ole Cascade range. and then through Stampede Pass. The majority of this segment passes through heavily wooded lands of the Cedar River and Green River watersheds in Snoqualmie National Forest. (See subsection 2-b(2), Table V111-14 for the linear distances of forest and riparian lands traversed.) A significant proportion of these water- shed lands are expressly protected by watershed management policies and have been relatively undisturbed by logging activities for a long time. The exceptions are the relatively narrow corridors cut through the forest by different rights-of-way and the area between Stampede Pass and Sno- qualmie Pass to the north, in the vicinity of Keechelus Lake. In this region, significant portions of both the Green and Cedar River watersheds have been logged as recently as 1960. Some areas are of relatively late successional age with the seral species such as Douglas fir represented by mature individuals which can begin to be replaced by climax species such as western hemlock. In the vicinity of Stampede Pass (elevation 3600 feet), the vegetation undergoes transition to subalpine forest where the dominant species of the climax community would be Pacific silver fir. Areas which have been disturbed within the last 500 years are largely represented by earlier successional species which include Douglas fir, western hemlock, and noble fir. This zone receives one-and-one-half to four times as much annual precipitation as the lowlands to the west. The earlier successional stages contain a higher overall proportion of coniferous trees among the overstory plants than the lowland seral communities. In the area of Eagle Gorge, the route will either cross or closely skirt the northern arm of the recently enlarged Howard Hanson Reservoir. This is a major impoundment on the Creen River which provides the water supply for the City of Tacoma. Five transmission Iines currently cross this arm of the reservoir, but the pipe-litie would probably be built around the perimeter instead. C. Puget Spur (1) Location. The Puget Spur in this study is a hypothetical pipe- line corridor. It does not correspond to any specific proposal on the part of government or industry. The concept of the Puget Spur was origi- nally entertained by the Northern Tier Pipeline Company, which has contem- plated a marine terminal at Cherry Point, and pipeline connection to Stampede Pass or Snoqualmie Pass. This line would have followed the approximate route of a Puget Spur. After the Northern Tier Pipeline Company altered its proposal by moving the marine terminal site to Port Angeles on the Olympic Peninsula, the Puget Spur route offered a potential means for the existing refineries along the northeast shore of Puget Sound to obtain a supply of crude oil that would substitute for curtailed Canadian shipments and would avoid the need for major tanker traffic on the inner waters ol Puget Sound. VIII-77 Arthur D Little Inc The route of the Puget Spur used in this study is derived from three sources. The first of these is the Trans Mountain Pipeline Company, Ltd., of Vancouver, w1iich currently operates the Trails Mountain Pipeline from British Columbia to both Cherry Point and March Point. That pipeline could provide right-of-way for actual service to a portion of the Puget Spur running from the Burlington and Mt. Vernon vicinity to Cherry Point. From Burlington south to Everett, the Trans Mountain owns additional right-of-way not currently in use. Such contiguous right-of-way would offer the tremendous advantage over the construction of a new line even though many of the attendant land use and environmental impacts would remain undiminished. Furthermore, if a Puget Spur were to be operated independently of the Northern Tier Pipeline, it is quite likely that Trans Mountain would be the operator (Trans Mountain Pipeline Company, 1976, and Butler Engineering, 1976, pers. comm.). From Everett south to Selleck the route studied is roughly that route contained in an early proposal by the Northern Tier Pipeline Company, which connected the Trans Mountain Pipeline right-of-way at Everett to an eastbound route through Snoqualmie Pass. Since Stampede Pass now appears more realistic, and since the latter route was not clearly identi- fied on a small scale map, some consultant's judgment was used in estimating the route of the Puget Spur used in this study. That route does traverse some sensitive environmental and land use zones, and any engineering pro- posal would require detailed study before implementation. Such studies would facilitate identification of mitigation measures. The route dis- cussed here is considered representative and appropriate for comparison with those routes more formally identified (Figures VIII-28 and VIII-29). 1 (2) Land Use. As was done for the Peninsula Link, the environmental setting for the Puget Spur is presented as a series of figures (Figure VIII-30 to Figure VIII-32) and tables (Table VIII-15 to Table VIII-21). Segment I - Cherry Point to Laurel Pump Station :egment 1 is the connecting link between the refineries at Cherry Point and the main route corridor -- the junction is at Laurel. The entire segment lies in the right-of-way of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline. About three of the 13 miles of this segment. pass through wooded land, over half crosses intensively cultivated and pastureland, and about 1.5 miles are parallel to strip development along Smith Road, or intersect low-density suburbanization in the vicinity of Ferndale. Less than one mile crosses riparian zones, the Nooksack River and its floodplain, and two crossings of Silver Creek. The segment entails crossing 16 roads or highways, including Interstate 5, and one railroad (see Table VIII-15 and Figures VIII-30 to VTTI-32). 0 Segment 2 - LaureL to BurlLngtoil Puinp Stati.on Segment 2 roughly parallels Interstate 5 for 27.5 miles running pearly due south from Laurel to the Burlington Pump Station, located ab.out VIII-78 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII- 28 LOCATION PUGET SPUR 777- @A` 11 A AIP111 A rd It V. O.k Z' P= A o. 3a -mo@mt ke T ce ..h i" L ;ttt @.d INS .4w- -V 1v 0 10 20 mi kM 0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH k'v V- Trans Mountain Pipe T.ine Co., Right-of-Way Map", 1959; ur D. Little, Inc. Arth VIII-79 FIGURE VIII- 29 ROUTE SCHEMATIC: PUGET SPUR CHERRY PT BELLINGHAM PT '.."T ............ 9B :yj EVERETT X-Y .. . . .. .... SEATTLE X: SELLECK 0 10 20 mi km .0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH TACOMA 4 Trans Mountain Pipe L--ae Co., "Right-of-Way Map", '959; Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-80 FIGURE VIII- 30 USGS TOPOGRAPHIC MAPS ALONG PUGET SPUR F BLAINE. ,61 ANACORT ES 1940-51 DECEPTION PASS ......... EVERET IVIONROE- 19S3 1956 0 10 20 mi km 0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH Trans Mountain Pipe Line Co., "Right-of-Way Map", 1959; Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-81 FIGURE viii- 31 MAJOR TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR CROSSINGS: PUGET SPUR CHERRY BELLING M PT 10 X: EVER- T Transportation Corridors Xxx: Major roads X ........... Railroads SEATTLE 7. SELLECK 0 10 20 m i F X. km 0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH TAC014A Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-82 FIGURE V-1-11.- 32 WOR ST AM CROSSINGS: PUGET SPUR C@iERRY P 2 LLI HM 3 4 5 10 6 7 v e r s 14ooksack P Zsqualicum Cr. com Cr- What 3 Samish R- EVERE 9 4 5-Skagit R - Stililaguamish R* 6-Fk- Stillaguam'sh R. 7-S. Fk- _pilchuck R. 9 skykomish oqualmie 10-Sn 10 -Cedar R. SEATTLE n R. Gree 12 20 10 mi SELLECK 0 kM 30 10 20 %ORTIA SOURCES* Littlev lnc* Arthur D. TACOKA V-1-11-83 TABLE VIII-15 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Cherry Point.to Laurel Pump Station Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 12.68 100 23.7 6.0 58.0 12.3 New Right-of-Way Jotal 12.68 100 VIII-84 Arthur D Uttle, Inc TABLE VIII-15 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment : Cherry Point to Laurel Pump Station Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Ln2-s@ (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' marsh Tennant Lake Nooksack R. floodplain Meridian Rd. Silver Cr. 2000' Hannegan Rd. Red River Rd. Elder Rd. C. Olson Rd. Ln Johnston Rd. Imhof Rd. River Rd. Hovander Rd. Labounty Rd. Aldrich Rd. Northwest Rd. Interstate 5 3 unnamed Rds. Burlington Northern RR NEW RIGHT OF WAY NONE TABLE VIII-16 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 7- : Laurel to Burlington Pump Station Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Ripari.an Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 27.52 100 64.4 8.6 8.3 18.7 New Right-of-Way 0 Total 27.52 100 V111-86 Arthur D Little In: TABLE VIII-16 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment Z: Laurel to Burlington Pump Station Canyon Road and Urban Sensitive Area Crossings Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY 1 Unnamed Ck. 1300' Kelly Rd. Bellingham Slough Edison 200' Squalicum Ck. 2001 Van Wyck Rd. Marsh Unnamed 950' Whatcom Ck. 400' Bakerview Rd. Animal Habitat Upland State 11 ac. (Nearby) '1' Samish Lake 400' 0-01 Bear Ck. 200' Lakeway Drive Colony Ck. 950, Galbraith St. Marsh Olympia 1.8 miles Burlington Northern Rr. (2x) Samish Rr. 100, CMSP&P RR Unnamed Ck. flood plain interstate 5 Tobacco Rd. Colony Rd. Bow Hill Rd. Johnson Rd. (2x) Chuckanut Drive (State 11) 16 Unnamed Rds. NEW RIGHT OF WAY NONE fD TABLE VIII-17 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment March Point to Burl i ngton Pump Station Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 8.44 100 31.8 11.8 0 56.4 New Right-of-Way 0 Total 8.44 100 VIII-88 Arthur D Ljttle Inc TABLE VIII-17 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 3: March Point to Burlington Pump Station Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Cro.ssings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Swinomish Channel 1000, Best Rd. Whitmarsh Junction Slough Indian 2001* Slough Telegraph 1000, I Unnamed Channel 500' Memorial Highway Slough Blind 500' Burlington Northern Rr. Blind Slough 500' 2 Unnamed Rds. 10 1 Unnamed Ck. 200' *All the sloughs are in a general marshy area south of Padilla Bay. TABLE VIII-18 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary SegmentLj: Burlington Pump Station to East of Everett Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 37.16 100 27.2 7.1 28.1 37.6 New Right-of-Way 0 Tot al 37.16 100 VIII-90 Arthur D Little, Inia TABLE VIII-18 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment4'/.* Burlington Pump Station to East of Everett Canyon Road and Urban Sensitive Area Crossings Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY 2 Unnamed Cks. 8001,200- Memorial Highway-(2x) Marysville vicinity None Significant Avon Everett vicinity Skagit R. 1900, Britt Slough 200' Burlington Northern RR-(2x) Unnamed Stream, Dunbar Rd. Holmes Levee Flood Plain Mclean Rd. Unnamed Ck. 600' Penn Rd. Stillaguamish R. 600' County Farm.Rd. Portage Ck. 700' Kimball Rd. Pilchuk Ck. 1500' Britt Slough Rd. 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' Hickox Rd. Middle Fork Stream 200' Stackpole Rd. Quilceda Ck. 200' Interstate 5 Allen Ck. 200' Johnson Rd Munson Ck. 200' Fir isl@nd Rd. 6 Unnamed Cks. 200' Mulltown Rd. I Unnamed Ck. 200' Freeborn Rd. Stanwood Rd. Jackson Gulch Rd. State 530 Blacken Rd. Cox Rd. Shoultes Rd. Otter Rd. Zieball Rd. ID TABLE VIII-18 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 4: Burlington P.S. to East of Everett Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY (con't) Turk Rd. None Significant Anderson Rd. Hickok Rd. 13 Unnamed Ms. NEW RIGHT OF WAY NONE TABLE VIII-19 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment Y: East of Everett to Monroe (Skykomish Rr.) Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 6.76 43.8 75.1 1.2 0 23.7 New Right-of-Way 8.68 56.2 35.5 4.6 16.6 43.3 Total 15.44 100 VIII-93 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIII-19 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment .6': East of Everett to Monroe (Skykokish Rr.) Canyon Road and Urban Sensitive Area Crossings Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Pilchuk R . 4000' Three Lakes Rd. Snohomish vicinity None Significant 1 Unnamed Ck. 700' Haines Rd. I Unnamed Ck. 200' Oilwell Rd. I Unnamed Ck. 400' Iverson Rd. French Ck. 2001 Spada Rd. Meadowlake Rd. 4 Unnamed Rds. NEW RIGHT-OF-WAY I Unnamed stream 1000, State 204 Everett vicinity marsh out of Richardson Ck. 500, Skykomish R., Haskel Slough 8000, Hewitt Ave. East Snohomish vicinity State 9 83rd Ave. 52D St. Brown Rd. Yeager Rd. Florence Acres Rd. > U.S. Route 2 Great Northern Rd. 4 Unnamed TABLE VIII-20 PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 6 : Monroe (Skykomi sh Rr. to Sell eck (Kangl ey) Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 23.39 77.6 79.4 5.0 6.4 9.2 New Right-of-Way 8.48 22.4 85.8 3.8 4.7 5.7 Total 31.87 100 VIII-95 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-20 (Continued) PUGET SPUR Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 6: Monroe (Skykomish Rr) to Selleck (Kangley) Sensitive Area Crossings Canyon Road and Urban Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT-OF-WAY 1 Unnamed (34 200' Spicer Rd. Carnation Marsh Unnamed 4001 Cherry Ck. 800, North Rd. Pleasant Hill 3 Marshes Unnamed 3500' Tolt Rr. flood plain Mountain View Rd. slough Rutherford 1900, Griffin Ck. 400' Langlois Rd. 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' Tolt Bunker Rd. I small pond 800, Tolt River Rd. French Ck. 200' North Fork of Cherry Ck. (2x) 2001 CMSP&P RR (2x) Griffin Ck. 400' 2 Unnamed Cks. 200' 7 Unnamed Cks. 200' Brew Rd. (3x) 1 Intermittent Ck. 200' Kerriston Rd. Echo Lake 400' Green Valley Rd. Raging R. 1000, Rocky Rd. Rock Ck. 200' North Pole Rd. Cedar R. 1000, 15 Unnamed Rds. NEW RIGHT-OF-WAY Skykomish R. 8200' Ben Howard R. Spring Glen Marsh Unnamed 500' Harris Ck. flood plain Rock Rd. (34 Kangley Snoqualmie R. Mud Ck. flood plain (3100') State S22 Northern Pacific RR A llnnnrnarl DrIc 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TABLE VIII-21 PUGET SPUR Land Use Summary Segment Miles on Urban Road Crossings Length Right- % of % % % % Communities Stream Crossings Railroad State or (Miles of-WM Segment Forest Riparian Agri. Urban Crossed Major Other Cross!qjs Federal Other I. Cherry Pt. to 12.68 12.68 100 23.7 6.0 58.0 12.3 Vicinity i 4 1 1 15 Laurel Pump Station 2, Laurel to Burling- 27.52 27.52 100 64.4 8.6 8.3 18.7 1 2 6 3 2 26 ton Pump Station 3. March Pt. to 8.44 8.44 100 31.8 11.85 0 56.4 1 1 3 1 1 3 Burlington Pump Station 4. Burlington P.S. 37.16* 37.16 100 27.2 1 28.1 3?.6 3 2 20 .1 4 39 to East of Everett 5. East of Everett 15.44 6.76 43.8 75.1 1.2 0 23.7 1 1 4 1 0 10 to Monroe 8.68 56.2 33.5 4.6 16.6 43.3 3 2 1 1 2 10 H 6. Monroe to 23.39 77.6 79.4 6.0 6.4 9.2 2 3 23 2 0 28 Selleck 8.48 22.4 85.8 3.8 4.? 5. ? 2 2 2 1 1 8 I Total 78.79 59.19 55 6.8 14.2 19.3 5 8 40 4 82 54.32 40.81 3?.8 6.2 22.6 33.6 8 6 23 3 ? 5? 133.11 13 T1 ON TRMSMOUNTAIN LINK Land Use Summary Segment Miles on Urban Road Crossings Length Right- % of % % % % Communities Stream Crossings Railroad State or Segment Name jTJfs) of-Way Segment Forest Riparian Agri. Urban Crossed Major Other Crossings Federal Other 1. Sumas to Laurel 14.36 14.36 100 29.3 7.2 44.0 19.6 1 4 3 -2 1 13 Pump Station Bold Face Type - Existing right-of-way ItaZic Type - New right-of-way Transmountain Pipeline Company owns right-of-way, but no pipe in place. Hence, this will be considered new right-of-way in the Impact analysis. five miles northwest of the town of Mt. Vernon in Skagit County. All of this segment lies in an existing pipeline right-of-way (the Trans Mountain Pipeline). Nearly 18 miles (65%) of the segment traverse forested lands, about two miles intersect agricultural lands, and about five miles cut through urban lands of the City of Bellingham. A total of about two miles. cross riparian zones of six creeks, the Samish River and Samish Lake, as well as two marshes and Edison Slough (discussed in subsection 2-c(3). The segment has 28 road crossings, many associated with the long urban stretch, including one state highway and Interstate 5. Three railroad crossings also are involved (see Table VIII-16). 0 Segment 3 - March Point to Burlington Pump Station Segment 3 runs from the March Point refineries to the junction with the main north-south corridor,at the Burlington Pump Station. About 2.5 of this 8.5-mile segment pass through wooded lands; more than 4.5 miles traverse urban lands in the vicinity of the March Point refineries and near Whitmarsh Junction. The segment crosses several riparian zones, including three sloughs and the Swinomish Channel, totaling about one mile. Four roads are crossed, including Memorial Highway wh ich connects Fidalgo Island with the mainland, and one railroad (Table VIII-17 and Figures VIII-31 and VIII-32). All of the segment follows the existing right-of-way of the Trans Mountain Pipeline. 0 Segment 4 - Burlington Pump Station to East of Everett Segment 4 runs south and slightly east for about 37 miles, crossing the boundary between Skagit and Snohomish counties. All of it lies in the designated right-of-way of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, which roughly parallels Interstate 5, but there is no pipe in place. About 10 miles of this segment cut through forested lands, 10.5 miles cross lands under cultivation or in pasture, and 14 miles intersect urban areas. These include the community of Avon, the Smokey Pt. subdivision in the vicinity of Marysville, and the Cavalero Corner subdivision east of Everett proper. More than 2.5 miles of this segment will cross riparian zones. These com- prise 19 creeks, one slough, and the Skagit and Stillaguamish rivers. Forty-three transportation corridor crossings are involved, including two intersections with Memorial Highway, one each with Interstate 5 and State Route 530, and two with the Burlington Northern Railroad (Table VIII-18). 0 Segment 5 - East of Everett to Monroe Segment 5 runs south and-east for 15.5 miles from east of Everett to the Skykomish River near the Town of Monroe. Slightly less than half of-this segment follows existing right-of-way; most is forested land, only about one-tenth mile crosses riparian zones, which comprise the corridors .of the Pilchuck River, French Creek, and three minor creeks, and some of the existing right-of-way portion crosses urban lands in the vicinity of the Town of Snohomish. This portion requires 10 crossings of local roads and one railroad crossing. VIII-98 Arthur D Little, Inc The portion of Segment 5 requiring new right-of-way construction is about 9 miles long (56% of the segment). About three miles of the new right-of-way portion will require clearing through forested lands; about half a mile will cross riparian corridors which include the Skykomish River and Haskel Slough.* About 1.5 miles of this portion will cut through agricultural lands in the vicinity of Monroe, and nearly four miles of this portion will traverse urban lands near Everett, Snohomish, and Monroe. The new right-of-way portion will require 12 road crossings, which include 7 U.S. Route 2 and State Route 9, and one railroad crossing (Table VIII-19). 0 Segment 6 - Monroe to Selleck Segment 6 runs nearly due south from Monroe for about 32 miles to the junction with the Peninsula and East Washington Links of the Northern Tier Pipeline at Selleck. Slightly more than three-quarters of the segment follows the corridor of existing transmission lines -- nearly all of the southern half of the segment and half of the northern piece. Of the 24 miles of existing right-of-way, 19 miles cut across forested lands. Over half of these lands are part of the Snoqualmie National Forest which is also the Cedar River watershed. The latter provides the major source of domestic water supply for the City of Seattle. About 1.2 miles of the existing right-of-way portion of Segment 6 cross riparian zones, including three river crossings, 21 creek crossings, and one lake and one pond crossing. One and a half miles intersect agricultural lands in the flood- plains of the Skykomish and Snoqualmie rivers. About two miles of this portion cross the urban settlements of Carnation and Pleasant Hill. Twenty- eight local road crossings and two railroad crossings are involved. Roughly 8.5 miles of Segment 6 require the creation of new right-of-way for the pipeline. Most of this is through forested lands in the northern half of the segment, and about one-half mile traverses agricultural lands in the Snoqualmie River valley. Less than half a mile of riparian zones is crossed, which includes both the Skykomish and Snoqualmie rivers and two creeks. The small towns of Spring Glen and Kangley are intersected by about half a mile of this new right-of-way segment. Nine road crossings and one railroad crossing are required in this portion, including the crossing of State Route 522. (3) Terrestrial Biology. The woodland vegetation and wildlife of all six segments of the Puget Spur will be described together because the scale of analysis does not distinguish the small differences between the natural communities of these various segments. All of the segments run in a general north-south direction along the low western slopes and foot- hills of the Cascade Mountains. The total latitudinal difference between north and south is only 1-120, so that the differences in species composition attributable to latitudinal change are far less significant than differences due to degree and recency of prior disturbance by clearing. The terrestrial biology analysis was done using broad-scale field reconnaissance, supple- mented by aerial photography and topographic map data at a scale of 1:24,000. VIII-99 Arthur D Little, Inc This scale of analysis does not distinguish natural early succession grassland communities from pastureland (extensive agriculture). All cleared areas were thus considered to be agricultural land, since in the absence of continued disturbance by grazing or mowing they would rapidly be replaced by successional forest species. The natural communities other than grassland-grazing land largely comprise mixed broadleaf-coniferous forest riparian zones, and special sensitive areas -- usually wetlands in the vicinity of sloughs, lakes, or rivers. The extent of forest and riparian lands encountered in each segment is discussed in subsection 2-c(2). The individual sensitive areas crossed or closely paralleled by the segments of the Puget Spur are given in Tables VIII-15 through VIII-20. The species composition of the broadleaf and coniferous forest areas is similar to that described for segments of the Peninsula Link, the dominant species being big leaf maple, Oregon ash, red alder, Douglas fir, Sitka spruce, and western red cedar. Some elements of.the more northern British Columbia flora such as paper birch enter portions of the north Puget Sound segments (e.g., Segments 1-4). The complete species list of characteristic plants and animals is given in Appendix B. Common plants of the riparian zones include black cottonwood, red alder, quaking aspen, several species of willow, creek dogwood, cattails, sedges, rushes, and stinging nettle. Riparian habitat is common in western Washington, but valuable in that it provides water, as well as food, nest sites, and cover for a large number of wildlife species, particularly birds. Riparian mammals such as beavers, raccoons, and river otters depend on freshwater fish as a source of food. Wetland vegetation associated with sloughs, lakes, ponds or rivers overlaps in species compo- sition with riparian areas and wet meadow (see Appendix B). Rushes, sedges, cattails, and marsh grasses are the characteristic plants. Marshes are extremely valuable habitat for year-round resident birds which breed there, as well as for migratory species on the Pacific Flyway, which include numerous species of ducks, geese, and swans (see Appendix B). d. Trans Mountain Link - Sumas to Laurel Pump Stati on Only (1) Land Use. This segment extends 14 miles from Sumas near the Canadian border to the Laurel Pump Station northeast of Bellingham in Whatcom County. The entire segment follows the existing Trans Mountain right-of-way. About 30% (4.2 miles) traverses forested land, nearly half (6.3 miles) runs through cultivated lands, and almost three miles inter- sect parts of the urban community of Nooksack. The route requires five stream crossings, the most important of which is the Nooksack River. The total length of route within riparian zones is about one mile. The seg- ment involves 14 road crossings, including one major arterial highway and two railroad crossings (see Table VIII-22, Figures VT'11-30 through VIII-32). VIII-100 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-22 TRANSMOUNTAIN LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Sumas to Laurel Pump Station Segment % % % % % Length (miles) Total Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Existing Right-of-Way 14.36 100 29.3 7.2 44.0 19.5 New Right-of-Way 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 14.36 100 '01 VIII-101 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIII-22 (Continued) TRANSMOUNTAIN LINK Pipeline Segment Summary Segment 1: Sumas to Laurel Pump Station Canyon Road and Urban Sensitive Area Crossings Stream Width Railroad Area Size or Pipeline Crossings (Feet) Crossings Crossings Type Name Length Traversing EXISTING RIGHT OF WAY Nooksack R. 4400' Telegraph Rd. (2x) Nooksack Breckenridge Ck. 200' Alm St. Sumas R. (34 200' Gillie St. Tenmile Ck. 1900, Sumas Lawrence 1 Unnamed Ck. 1300' Highway Emerson St. Mission St. Pole St. Everson St. Central St. Hemmi St. Noon St. Axton St. Smith St. Burlington Northern RR CMSP&P RR I Unnamed St. NEW RIGHT OF WAY NONE fD (2) Terrestrial Biology. The existing vegetation communities of the Trans Mountain Link are similar to the Puget Spur. Roughly 30% of the segment is second growth forest. A relatively high proportion is riparian -- comprising portions of the broad floodplains of the Nooksack River and several creeks (see Table VIII-22 and Figure VIII-32). VIII-103 Arthur D Little- Inc B. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT 1. Tanker Transportation a. Transportation Corridors Five refineries in Puget Sound produce a full range of product. Atlantic Richfield Company, Mobil, Shell, and Texaco are located in the north Sound in the petroleum activity zones discussed in Chapter VII; the smallest, U.S. Oil and Refining, is at Tacoma. Although most of the product distribution from the north Sound refineries to local markets in Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, and Everett is achieved through the Olympic Pipeline, there is nonetheless a substantial movement of petroleum through the shipping lanes directed toward Puget Sound proper for the southern part of the Sound, which is the center of the region's princi- pal shipping activity. Much of the petroleum movement in this corridor is actually in the form of vessel bunker fuel. The majority of petro- leum transfer operations in the south Sound is due to vessel fueling and handling of specialty cargoes, and this activity is responsible for the majority of spills over previous years; the total volume involved is fairly small. The major use of the north Sound petroleum transportation corridors is by the four refineries, which have had to depend increasingly upon waterborne crude sources as the Canadian allotment received through the Trans Mountain Pipeline is curtailed. As discussed in Chapter II, crude oil receipts by water presently amount to roughly 250,000 barrels per day, and product exports by water amount to approximately 150,000 B/D. This does not include the movement of product by retailers such as Standard Oil of California, Union Oil, Gulf, etc., that do not have refining capacity in Puget Sound but who must import product directly to bulk loading terminals in population centers. The total volume of crude and product moved through the Strait of Juan de Fuca is the combination of traffic directed toward refineries in the north Sound and the fuel, incidental cargo, and product destined for the population and industry .centers of the south Sound. The crude and product moved through the north Sound transportation corridors represent a significant proportion of the total volume,, but the transportation occurs in relatively large units and thus the number of vessels and the number of operations on a time basis are smaller than that of the shipping industry activity in the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett area. This has resulted in a far smaller history of spills but, as may be expected, the volumes of crude involved represent a far greater potential for large spill size should an accident occur. It has been the potential for major damage arising from a catastro- phic oil transportation accident that has been the source of concern regarding continuing crude supply to north Sound refineries. In the impact scenarios discussed in this study, transportation corridors through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and into the northern Puget Sound are considered VIII-104 Arthur D Little Inc (1) with regard to possible Alaskan Crude oil transshipment projects which require a marine terminal to serve a pipeline leading out of Washington, and (2) with regard to continuing crude oil supply to Puget Sound refineries. This study focuses only upon the transportation corridor leading through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and to the north Sound refinery centers. It should be borne in mind, however, that the shipping activity toward Seattle and Tacoma represents a major potential for oil spills which will persist independently of any change in the regional refinery supply transportation program. In order to discuss the petroleum transportation scenarios, the route from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the northern Puget Sound industry activity zones has been subdivided into six separate segments. (See Figures VIII-33 and VIII-34.) The first segment is the Strait of Juan de Fuca from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles. This segment must be tra- versed by vessels under any of the petroleum transportation scenarios. For a Northern Tier type transshipment proposal requiring a marine terminal at Port Angeles, a short additional link (Segment 2) is required to bring vessels into the harbor behind Ediz Hook. Although several sub- site alternatives are discussed under the Port Angeles sections, the scale of transportation impact zone analysis does not readily resolve between them; thus, for simplicity, Segment 2 is directed at the most likely Northern Tier terminal site. Vessels destined for the existing refinery centers must transit Segment 3 from Port Angeles to Rosario Strait. From there vessels bound for March Point (Shell and Texaco refineries) must use Segment 4 through the Guemes Channel. Vessels bound for Cherry Point (Atlantic Richfield Company and Mobil refineries) must use Segment 5, which continues through the Rosario Strait into the Strait of Georgia. A transshipment scenario requiring a marine terminal at Cherry Point, whether to serve a Northern Tier type pipeline running along the east side of Puget Sound and out through eastern Washington, or whether serving a trans-mountain corridor proposal, would use the three major links from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles (Segment 1), from Port Angeles to Rosario Strait (Segment 3), and from Rosario Strait to Cherry Point (Segment 5). Although Burrows Bay is not specifically discussed as a petroleum transshipment scenario, that site has been included in the oil spill impact zone definition for general information and for reference. That point source is identified as Segment 6 in Figure VIII-34. (1) Oil Spill Risk. The several petroleum transportation scenarios addressed by this study make different use of the tanker route segments just described (see Tables VIII-23 and VIII-24). The different levels of vessel activity combine with different degrees of risk exposure inherent in the route segments (as discussed in Chapter VI) to yield estimates of the frequency and average annual spill volume for each scenario according to route segment (see Tables VIII-25 and VIII-26). VIII-105 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII- 33 PETROLEUM TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS: STRAIT OF JUAN DE 0 5 10 15 20 Mi km 0 10 20 30 NOF37H V A N C 0 U V E RIS L A ND V I C TO R I FLATTERY 0,C '1&41V cy@ KEY CM1==MM3> P 0 R T A NE L E S Oil tanker route Major vessel traffic intersection segment 1: Cape Flattery to Port Angeles segment 2: Port Angeles segment 3: Port Angeles to Rosario Strait segment 4: Ro-sario -Strait to March Point segment 5: Rosario Strait to Cherry Point segment 6: Burrows Bay Source: NOAA, US Dept. of Commerce9"Cape Blanco to Cape Flattery", April 12, 1975. FIGURE VIII-34 PETROLEUM TRANSPORTATION CORRIDORS: NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 15 20 rn i krn 0 10 20 30 NORTH CANADA KEY U.S.A. Oil tanker route P 0 1 N T R 0 B E R T S Major vessel traffic intersection C H E R R Y P T . 5 ZI BELLINGHAM % ca N1`3q`:z4 SAN JUAN -4 0 S L A N D ANACORTES MARCH PT. V I C T 0 R I A 6 co 0 w H I D B E Y I S L A N D S K A G I T B A Y /1P 4<1 U N G E N E S S P 0 R T S P I T A N G E L E S Source: Washington, Department of Natural Resources, 1974. VIII-107 The total risk is primarily determined by the crude oil throughput of each scenario. The greater vessel activity of a scenario using small vessels, such as Scenario I-B, results in gr eater (70%) risk per volume of crude transported according to this methodology. A scenario with heavy use of Rosario Strait (Segments 4 and 5), such as Scenario III, has a greater (30%) risk due to greater exposure to vessel casualty. Risk exposure for each segment is far more sensitive to scenario. The heavy use of Rosario Strait in Scenario III, transshipment at Cherry Point, greatly increases risk in northern Puget Sound above the current level of exposure due to regional supply alone, and regional supply by tanker has more risk than regional supply via Port Angeles and the Puget Spur Pipeline (Scenario II-B). The increased throughput for the Northern Tier proposal increases risk in the Strait of Juan de Fuca such that the total spill risk is greater in Scenario II-B, but the risk has been shifted away from northern Puget Sound. (2) Oil Spill Mobility and Impact Zone. Once crude oil is re- leased, through operational failure or catastrophic accident, its impact on the environment depends largely upon its subsequent mobility. @Although there are two phases to oil spill impacts -- a short-term acute phase characterized by mechanical and acute toxic disturbance, and a longer- term phase characterized by low level but lingering toxic effects'-- the acute phase is that most commonly associated with the adverse environ- mental impacts of oil spill. It comprises the heavy oil slick on:the surface of the water and the dense accumulation of oil along the shore- line that is responsible for the most obvious acute mortality of finfish, shellfish, birds, and mammals that is usually the source of the m6st immediate political concern regarding the oil spill. The effects of long-term exposure to oil in sediments or dispersed throughout the water column are far less understood and do not receive the same degree@of public concern. Because of the different time frames for the two impact phases and because of the different transport mechanisms responsible for directing oil against sensitive species, the zone of impact will differ markedly. The discussion following concerns only short-term mobility; there is insufficient information presently available to model long-term mobility. Assessment of environmental impact of tanker traffic through'the transportation corridors is essentially a consideration of the impact zone of potential oil releases from those tanker corridors and a consid- eration of the marine resources within the impact zones. Since the tanker routes traverse the entire Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound, the potential for accidental oil release covers a wide area. Once oil is released, its fate in Puget Sound will be determined by a race between containment and cleanup efforts (see Chapter VI), and the tendency of wind and tidal current to disperse the oil even farther from its point of original release. The great number of variables involved, including the uncertainties regarding the actual point of release and weather con- ditions in effect at that time, prevent an exact estimate of the results of that race. However, one of the fundamental characteristics of the oil spill risk in Puget Sound is the intrinsic mobility of oil on the Sound's whters. VIII-108 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-23 TANKER TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR YEARLY THROUGHPUT (1000 B/D) BY LINK AND SCENARIO Scenario 1 -2 3 4 5 I A. 1980-1990 340 0 340 170 170 B. 1980-1990 340 0 340 170 170 II A. 1980 740 400 340 170 170 1985 1140 800 340 170 170 1990 1140 800 340 170 170 B 1980 740 690 50 30 20 1985 1140 1090 50 30 20 1990 1300 1250 50 30 20 111 1980 490 0 490 30 460 1985 690 0 690 30 660 1990 1140 0 1140 30 1110 IV 1980-1990 50 0 50 30 20 viii-log Af Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIII-24 TANKER TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR VESSEL CALLS PER YEAR BY LINK AND SCENARIO Corridor Link Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 I A. 1980-1990 129 0 129 64.5 64.5 B. 1980-1990 222 0 222 .111 ill II A. 1980 281 152 129 64.5 64.5 1985-1990 369 240 129 64.5 64.5 B. 1980 240 207 33 20 13 1985 360 327 33 20 13 1990 408 375 33 20 13 111 1980 194 0 194 20 174 1985 242 0 242 20 222 1990 364 0 364 20 342 IV 1980-1990 19 0 19 11 8 VIII-110 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE VIII-25 CASUALTY SPILLS BY CORRIDOR SEGMENT Corridor Segment (Spills/Year) Scenario Cape Flattery Port Angeles Rosario Strait Rosario Strait to Port Angeles Port Angele To Rosario Strait To March Point To Cherry Point Total 1. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet .0215 0 .0094 .0014 .0035 .0358 B. Restricted Fleet .0371 0 .0162 .0024 .0060 .0617 II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 .0469 .0029 .0094 .0014 .0035 .1073 H 1985-1990 .0616 .0046 .0094 .0014 .0035 .1487 B. Regional Supply by Puget H Spur Pipeline 1980 .0401 .0039 .0024 .0004 .0007 .1063 1985 .0601 .0062 .0024 .0004 .0007 .1627 1990 .0681 .0071 .0024 .0004 .0007 .1852 111. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 .0324 0 .0142 .0004 .0094 .0564 1985 .0404 0 .0177 .0004 .0120 .0705 1990 .0608 0 .0266 .0004 .0185 .1063 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mount .0032 0 .0014 .0002 .0004 .0052 Pipeline TABLE VIII-26 CASUALTY SPILL VOLUME BY CORRIDOR SEGMENT Gallons/Year Scenario Cape Flattery Port Angeles Rosario Strait Rosario Strait To Port Angeles Port Angeles To Rosario Strait To March Point To Cherry Point Total 1. Regional Supply Only A. Unrestricted Fleet 8,950 0 2,410 160 400 11,920 B . Restricted Fleet 15,410 0 4,160 280 690 20,520 11. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 1980 19,500 330 2,410 160 400 22,800 1985-1990 @5,610 520 2,410 160 400 29,100 B. Regional Supply by Puget N) Spur Pipeline 1980 16,660 450 620 50 80 17,860 1985 24,980 710 620 50 80 26,440 1990 28,320 810 620 50 80 29,880 111. Transshipment at Cherry Point 1980 13,460 0 3,630 50 11080 18,220 1985 16,790 0 4,530 so 1,380 22,750 1990 25,260 0 6,810 50 2,120 34,240 IV. Regional Supply by Trans Mountain 1,320 0 360 30 50 1,760 Pipeline fD Using current and wind data, it is possible to make a rough estimate of the zone of probable location for oil spills released along the various segments of the transportation corridor. The accuracy of the method is only as good as the data. Unfortunately, the Puget Sound and Strait of Juan de Fuca are complex hydraulic bodies. There are current data acqui- sition programs and elaborate computer modeling efforts under way which will ultimately allow a far more exact characterization of the possible patterns of oil spill movement. The input data to this study unfortunately allow significant opportunity for error. Nonetheless, the results provide an indication of the potential mobility of oil spills and serve as a starting point for a discussion of the possible marine resource impacts of continuing major oilmovements through various segments of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound. The wind and current information presented in Chapter VIII-B indicate average conditions over several years of data accumulation. The variable estimates of tidal motion and wind motion derived from those data are also average figures in the sense that some variability is a predictable and average occurrence. There will be conditions, such as severe storms 9 or anomalous patterns of persistent airflow, which can significantly alter the properties of net surface current over a portion of the year. At present the data base is inadequate for an explicit modeling of the possible effect of anomalous conditions. The following analysis relies on the average conditions described; they probably do not represent the worst case, but they represent the greatest statistical likelihood of occurrence. In the discussion of oil spill impact zone that follows, no initial distinction is made regarding the density of crude movement through the transportation corridors. Similarly, no distinction is made between the accident potential for different segments, although intuitively one feels 7 that the segment in Rosario Strait and Cherry Point, Segment 5, entails more difficult navigation than Segment 1. That problem of accident risk is discussed in Chapter VI-B and earlier in this section. Here the prin- cipal concern is the hydraulic potential for dissipation of spilled oil by surface current phenomena within the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Puget Sound. Each segment of the transportation route is treated as a potential line source with an implicit spill risk equal along every unit of length. In viewing initial oil spill impact zone diagram, it is important to remember that an actual event would occur at one place along the route, or at least over a very small portion of its total length. Thus, the actual impact zone of any individual incident would be far smaller than the impact zone defined by the entire length of the trans- portation segment. Since it is impossible to predict exactly where such incidents may occur, and since it is impossible to present every antici- pated case, examination of the line source impact zone is a more succinct form of analysis. Recall that the pattern of net surface current within the strait and north Sound is predominantly outward, away from the land and toward the Pacific Ocean. This represents a net flushing tendency for the area as VIII-113 Arthur D Little Inc a whole. Within this zone there are small regions which have cyclical tidal movement or which may be positioned in relationship to the prevail- ing wind so as to experience poor flushing or possibly even some degree of concentration of surface-borne materials. For the Sound as a whole5 however, the net motion appears to be outward; thus, oil spilled at any point along a transportation corridor will be gradually swept toward the Pacific Ocean. The variance of tidal and wind-induced motion around the predicted mean position increases the effective cross section of the oil spill impact zone that results. The following series of figures illustrates the areas that are potentially affected within the first day after a spill occurring any- where along the several tanker route segments. It is important to note that the displaced path depicted in fact represents the mean position of the floating body and that its actual path will have followed a highly active zig-zag caused by tidal fluctuations or oscillations. This dis- tinction is critical for the understanding of oil spill impact zones. The net current allows prediction of the mean or average position of the spill at any time after its release from a known point. The instantaneous position will be found to vary around that mean due to the continual action of the tidal phenomenon. The envelope drawn around a trajectory of mean position indicates the range of possible wind and tidal displace- ment. The oil spill will then be expected to remain within that envelope except under exceptional conditions. The area potentially affected by activity in the transportation segment from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles is depicted in Figure VIII-35, along with the impact zone from the small link connecting the main tank route with Port Angeles itself. The grey area of that figure depicts the impact zone. Within the grey area, an envelope defined by a heavy black line shows the range of variation and position around the mean that is due to tidal oscillation. The additional variation due to wind is responsible for extending the grey zone of impact beyond the dark line of tidal excursion. As stated before, the zone depicted is the estimate of the possible range of position that may be occupied by spills occurring anywhere along the tanker route under average conditions of wind and tide. To provide a picturesque interpretation of that zone, consider a vessel traveling between Cape Flattery and Port Angeles leaving a trail of dye in the water. That stripe of dye is initially located along the tanker transportation route depicted as Segment I in the earlier Figure VIII-33 and represented as the solid line in Figure VIII-36. After one day, the net influence of wind and tide will have caused the mean position of that stream of dye to have been displaced in the waters of the strait. Accord- ing to the information presented in Chapter VIII-B, the mean position after 24 hours is expected to be that indicated by the broken line in Figure VIII-36. On a statistical basis, a spill may occur at any time -- either during flood or ebb; thus the range of tidal displacement from the mean position is obtained by considering the field of flood tide vectors (Fig- ure VIII-1) and ebb tide vectors (Figure VIII-3). Those vector fields VIII-114 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII- 35 ONE DAY IMPACT ZONE - SEGMENT 1! CAPE FLATTERY TO PORT ANGELES, AND SE 0 0 5 10 15 20 Mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH VANCOUVER ISLAND ........ ... .......... V I C T C A P E T. y F L A T T E R C4 F F1 .......... .............. ........ . . .... ..... .... .. .. ......... . . . . . . . . . . KEY A N G E L E S Probable maximum mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tidal oscillation at the end of one day. Probable maximum mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions at the end of one day Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII- 36 SINGLE DAY MEAN DISPLACEMENT FROM LINE SOURCE(TANKER ROUTE): STRAI 0 5 10 is 20 Mi - km 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A N C 0 U V E RI S L A N D C A P E V C T 0 F L A T T E R Y op De 4 01% KEY P 0 R T Oil tanker route A N G E L E S' One day net displacement from route due to tide and wind (i.e., mean position of spills occurring along route after one day) Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. indicate the maximum potential displacement due to tidal oscillation. This will move the actual position of the stream of dye away from its mean position in cyclical fashion, crossing through the mean position briefly four times during that 24-hour period. The maximum area covered by tidal fluctuation alone is that depicted in Figure VIII-35 by the solid line envelope. As may be seen, the vector field of flood and ebb is roughly parallel to the tanker route over much of the segment traver- sing the Strait of Juan de Fuca. For this reason a dye stream left by a vessel will be moved backwards and forwards., roughly parallel to itself. The net motion of wind and tide, however, have displaced the mean position which is at the center of the tidal envelope toward the shore of the Olympic Peninsula, since the net current in this region apparently has an onshore or southerly component. The further variable action of wind has the potential to displace the floating dye in a random fashion within an ellipsoidal boundary defined by statistical considerations of wind conditions at Port Angeles, which is the most representative station available for this segment of the transportation corridor (refer back to Figure VIII-11). The orientation of the wind displacement curve or boundary is adjusted according to the vectors of prevailing wind direction given earlier in Figure VIII- 8-9. Superimposition of possible wind-induced variation in position extends the possible range of position for the dye stream to include the additional area of the gray zone depicted in Figure VIII-35 that lies outside of the boundary of tidal displacement. Because of the nature of wind and tidal variation, the interpretation of the two areas depicted in Figure VIII-35 is slightly different. If the conditions which led to the displacement of the mean position of the dye stream persist, then it is almost certain that the stream at some time will occupy a majority of the area enclosed in the solid boundary which indicates tidal displacement. Because the extreme displacement of wind variation requires a special combination of wind persisting from roughly the saTm direction, there is a much smaller probability that the dye stream will actually occupy the entire area depicted by the outer grey envelope. Thus, that envelope is not the map of the actual position occupied by the dye stream within one day; rather, it is an approximate probability distribution that establishes an approximate outer limit for motion within 24 hours. As stated earlier, of course, anomalous weather patterns can result in displacement outside of the principal impact zone defined by Figure VIII-35, but the probability of such occurrence is smaller. Also, it is important to note that the outer limit of the spill zone represents the maximum probable mobility of the centroid of the spill. Large spills (more than 250,000 gallons) will undergo further significant lateral spread due to the forces described in Chapter VI. In viewing the subsequent figures, the reader should bear in mind the approximate sizes of oil slicks resulting from various volumes of crude oil. Figure VIII-37 shows sizes for idealized circular slicks at the same scale as used for the series of impact zone maps. Actual impact from large spills is more likely to extend beyond the outer limit shown on those maps. VIII-117 Arthur D Little Inc Interpreting the areas presented in Figure VIII-35, the zone from Segment 1, the route from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles is obviously larger than the zone of potential impact from the much smaller Segment 2, the link connecting with Port Angeles itself. The extent of the Segment I impact zone is narrow simply because the route lies parallel to the principal action of wind and tidal displacement. The Port Angeles segment, however, lies across the predominant tidal and wind direction and thus it is spread to a far greater east-west extent. Wind variation in position results in a significant probability that oil released along the link connecting Port Angeles will reach Angeles Point seven miles to the west of the tip of Ediz Hook to Green Point, approximately six miles to the east. An actual spill, of course, would not reach both locations within 24 hours but would be far more localized. That zone, however, must be considered at risk from releases occurring randomly along the Port Angeles connecting link. This analysis indicates that the wildlife refuge at Dungeness Spit is not within the 24-hour impact zone of the oil spill under average conditions. Since the containment and cleanup effort for this portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Port Angeles can be mobilized within a half day, the one-day spill impact zone indicates the approximate potential extent of damage from a small or moderate spill that could be controlled fairly quickly upon deployment of the proper equipment. According to a description of the statewide Oil Pollution Abatement Program (Department of Ecology, July 1976), the probable total 24-hour cleanup capacity in Puget Sound may exceed 250,000 gallons. Considering response time and allowing for difficulties in initial containment due to spreading that will occur during the response period, a crude oil spill would probably have to be significantly less than 100,000 gallons (2400 barrels) for impact to be limited to the one-day displacement zone. Although such a value is large compared to most operational spills, it is extremely small compared to the average volume spilled from the sort of incident expected to lead to a spill along a tanker transportation route. The one-day potential impact zone for the transportation segment from Point Angeles to Rosario Strait (Segment 3) is depicted in Figure VIII-34. As seen in Figure VIII-38, the mean position of material spilled along the tanker route has been displaced to the south and west by net surface current motion. Tidal displacement indicated by the dark envelope in Figure VIII-39 spreads the potential range of spill impact which, when coupled with considerations of wind-induced variation position, defines a significant envelope of potential position which includes portions of the shorelines of several of the San Juan Islands and Burrows Bay and Fidalgo Head on Fidalgo Island. Those areas would be affected only if the spill were to occur at the extreme northeastern portion of the tanker route. If the spill were to occur along the western portion, its position after one day would be restricted to the zone of open water indicated in Figure VIII-39 and would not contact the shoreline. The one-day potential oil spill impact zone from Segment 4, between Rosario Strait and March Point, includes portions of the San Juan Islands and portions of Cypress and Guemes Island to the north of Fidalgo Island VIII-118 Arthur D Little- Inc FIGURE VIII-37 OIL SLICK DIMENSIONS Spill Size (gallons) AFTER 1-P @Mi- AFTER 5 PM�.@ 100 .11 .38 1000 .24 0 83 10,000 0 .53 0 1.81 100,000 0 1.16 0 3.93 250,000 0 1.75. 5.95 11000,000 0 2.49 .8.46 2,500,000 3.78 12.86 0 9 10,000,000 5.37 18.25 MW 0 5 10 Is 20 - Mi @ km 0 10 20 30 .Note: same scale as used for i 'mpact zone 0 0 0 0 0 and marine resources elsewhere in this report. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. ip VIII-119 FIGURE vIII-38 SINGLE DAY MEAN DISPLACEMENT FROM LINE SOURCE(TANKER ROUTE): NORTHERN PUGET SOUND 0 5 10 '15 20 - a km 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Littlep Inc. CANADA KEY U.S.A. Oil tanker route P 0 1 N T R 0 BER T S 1^0 C 11 E R R Y One day net P T I displacement from route due to tide and wind (i.e., mean position of spills occurring along route after one day) BELLINGHAM 0 00 ca SAN JUAN 0 I S L A N D -A ANACORTES MARCH PT. V I C T 0 R I A 0 co moo& WHIDBEY 0 ISLAND S K A G I T 3 B A Y too D U N G E N I S S SPIT PORT ANGELES VIII-120 FIGURE VIII- 39 ONE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 3: PORT ANGELES TO ROSARIO STRAIT 0 5 10 15 20 nil k 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. A N A D A - - - - - - KEY U.S.A. P 0 1 N T Probable maximum ROBERTS mobility of oil spills due to tide re, C H E R R Y Probable maximum IPC14 P T . mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions at the end of Q: one day 0 B E L L I N G H A M S A N J U A N S L A N D 0 ANACORTE@ PT. V I C T 0 R I A WIIIDBEY . ..... ISLAUD SKAGIT B A Y D U N G E N E S S P 0 R T SPIT A N G E L E S 01 VIII-121 opposite the City of Anacortes. Again, the exact location of the oil spill depends upon its point of initial release. Spills originating near March Point itself will reach into Fidalgo and Padilla Bay and possibly be driven northward by the strong prevailing winds toward Samish Bay. Similarly, spills occurring in Guemes Channel can be driven northward by flood tide and prevailing wind to reach Lummi Island. Spills occurring at the western end of the Rosario Strait link will drift southward with the prevailing current, resulting in the impact on the San Juan Islands and Burrows Bay (Figure VIII-40). Tanker route segment 5, which extends from Rosario Strait to Cherry Point, will have its major impact on the shore adjoining Cherry Point, in'cluding the Lummi Peninsula on the west side of Lummi Island and on the islands adjoining Rosario Strait (see Figure VIII-41). Over the length of the segment between Rosario Strait and Cherry Point there is significant variation in tidal velocities and the mobility of spilled oil is quite variable. In the Cherry Point vicinity, currents are weaker and winds tend to induce surface currents blowing north and northwest, thus avoiding a major potential impact on Lummi Bay. Within Rosario Strait itself, strong tidal currents would give spilled oil a high mobil- ity and incidentally interfere with potential containment and cleanup. An oil spill occurring within Burrows Bay, east of Allen Island, would follow a net displacement indicated on Figure VIII-42. As may be seen, the location of the Burrows Bay displacement trajectory on the extreme east of Rosario Strait carries it along the shore of Fidalgo Island near to the mouth of Deception Pass. The trajectory is held in this position by the large volume of water which must leave Rosario Strait coming from the tidal prism to the north and east. Due to the strong tidal action through Deception Pass, it is probable that a portion of oil spilled within Burrows Bay will be drawn through Deception Pass into Skagit Bay. The likelihood is increased by the two-hour phase advance between the peak tidal current in Deception Pass and the tidal flow in Rosario Strait. Although such data are not presented for the remainder of the study area, there are a number of situations in which small channels between islands experience a peak current before the peak current is reached in the main channel. It is possible for the current to begin to flood into Deception Pass while a weak but still significant current ebbs from Rosario Strait, carrying material out of Burrows Bay and directly in through Deception Pass. If a Burrows Bay marine terminal were proposed, far more detailed studies would be required to estimate the frequency of Skagit Bay impacts. As the mean position of the spilled material is gradually displaced from the tanker route by the effect of net surface current, it is subject to tidal and wind-induced variation at every point along the intermediate path. Over a longer period of time, the zone of possible oil spill position corresponding to the probable maximum mobility due to wind and tide can include a large area stretching from the vicinity of its original point of release to points quite distant. The following series of figures indicate the probable maximum extent of oil spill mobility for spills occurring under average conditions anywhere along a tanker route segment over the course of five days' time. VIII-122 Arthur D Little, Inc 0 FIGURE VIII- 40 ONE DAY IMPACT ZONE - SEGMENT 4: ROSARIO STRAIT TO MARCH POINT 0 5 10 15 20 Mi km 0 10 20 30 'r NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. CANADA KEY U.S.A. Probable maximum ROBERTS mobility of oil spills due to tide C 11 E R R Y Probable maximum PT. mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions at the end of one day BELLIMAM 00 % 0 SAN JUAN S L A N D :0 ANACORT S MARCII FIT. R I IN W 11 1 D F E Y 0 1 S L A N D S K A G I T B A Y e It, IP41( D U N G E N E S S P 0 R T S P I T ANGELES VIII-123 FIGURE VIII- 41 ONE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 5: ROSARIO STRAIT TO CHERRY POINT 0 5 10 15 20 - rns ==@ k m 0 10 20 30 NOF3TH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. CANADA KEY U.S.A. Probable maximum P 0 1 14 T mobility of oil R 0 B E R T S spills due to tide 6C0 Probable maximum C 11 E R R Y bility of oil spills mo 19rl 11 T . occur ring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions at the end of one day B E L L I N G H A M 00 cz SAN "A" L A 11 D 0 is ANACORTFS MARCH PT. V I C T 0 R I A 016 WHIDBEY 1 S L A 11 DS K A G I T B A Y 41@ Al D U N G E N E S S P R T S P I T A N G E L E S Oro VIII-124 FIGURE VIII-42 ONE DAY IMPACT ZONE - SEGMENT 6: BURROWS BAY 0 5 10 15 20 rni km 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. CANADA KEY U.S.A. Probable maximum POINT mobility of oil 011, R 0 B C R T S spills due to tide CIIERRY Probable maximum mobility of oil spills ... .... . P1. occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions at the end of one day B E L 1. 1 N G H A M 00 QS 0 C> C-4- S A N J U A N I S L A N 0 0 ANACORTES KARCH PT. v I C 0 R I A . . . . . . . . . . . W H I D B E y ISLAND S K A 6 1 T B A Y 19 D U N 6 E N E S S P 0 R T SPIT A N G E L E S VIII-125 0 The five-day potential impact zone from the tanker route extending from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles is depicted in Figure VIII-43. The solid line depicts the tanker route segment that serves as a line source for possible oil spills. The gray area depicts the probable maximum dis- placement of oil spills from that line source over the course of five days. Since the tanker route is approximately parallel to wind and current throughout the Strait of Juan de Fuca, the probable impact zone is stretched along the axis of the tanker route and is expected to touch the shore only in those locations where significant radial net current is predicted. One of these is along the Olympic Peninsula and may extend from Slip Point near Clallam Bay on the west to Freshwater Bay on the east. The zone of possible shoreline impact from the Cape Flattery,segment also includes a portion of the southern shore of Vancouver Island. Over the course of five days the principal mobility from this route segment is from east to west, brought out of the Strait of Juan de Fuca by the prevailing net current. The small segment connecting Port Angeles with the principal tanker route is situated closer to the shore of the Olympic Peninsula and there- fore the five-day potential impact zone includes a far greater shoreline segment than does the zone from Segment I discussed earlier (see Figure VIII-44). A spill occurring within Ediz Hook or within a few miles could potentially affect the shoreline from Green Point to Clallam Bay if it were allowed to drift freely over a period of five days. According to the calculations used in this method, that five-day impact zone does not include Dungeness Spit. The method is conservative wherever possible, but its limited accuracy does not allow that important wildlife refuge to be excluded from the zone of concern. The tanker route segment from Port Angeles to Rosario Strait (Seg- ment 3, Figure VIII-45) passes through areas of stron,(-, current with apparently strong and persistent gyres induced by the current contributions of many channels intersecting north of Dungeness Spit and west of Whidbey Island. This large-scale turbulence is responsible for broadening the zone of potential impact. Within the open area at the eastern end of the Strait of Juan de Fuca the impact zone does not intersect land near Dungeness Spit or Victoria, but as the net east to west current sweeps the mean spill position toward the Pacific Ocean the broadened zone of five-day impact intersects the coast of the Olympic Peninsula between Crescent Bay and Clallam Bay in much the same fashion as does the impact zone from the Cape Flattery to Port Angeles link. The impact zone from Segment 3 appar- ently intersects the shore of Vancouver Island near Cape Calver. Spills occurring at the Rosario Strait end of Segment 3 will potentially affect the San Juan Islands, Fidalgo Island, and the northwestern shore of Whid- bey Island. Penetration within Deception Pass is predicted to be slight from spills occurring along this segment according to the model used. However, as with the case of Dungeness Spit, this extremely sensitive environment must be considered at risk given the probable error of the model. VIII-126 Arthur D Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII-43 FIVE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 1: CAPE FLATTERY TO PORT AN 0 5 10 15 20 Mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH V A N C 0 U V E R ISLAND ............ . .......... ................ V I C CAPE F L A T T E R Y.. . . ............... ..... .... . .... .. .... 4'4 ......... KEY A N G E L E S Oil tanker route Probable maximum mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII- 44 FIVE DAY IMPACT ZONE - SEGMENT 2: PORT ANGELES 0 5 10 15 20 Mi km 0 10 20 30 NORTH VANCOUVER ISLAND V C T 0 R I C A P E r'q 41t F L A T T E R Y 0,0 4,V F- 'cll"4 00 P R T Oil tanker route A N G E L E S Probable maximum mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. FIGURE VIII-45 FIVE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 3: PORT ANGELES TO ROSARIO ST 5 15 20 OL? 0 10 kni NORTH 0 10 20 30 V A N C 0 U V E RISLAND S A N J U A N L A N D V I C T 0 R I A aft, . ....... .... . ...... .. . .. .... . .. .. ... .. . .. .... .. .. KEY DUNGENESS P 0 R T S P I T A N G E L E S Oil tanker route Probable maximum mobility of oil spills occurring along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. The route connecting March Point to Rosario Strait (Segment 4) is situated in a zone of high mobility, which leads to a five-day potential impact zone depicted by Figure VIII-46. Spills occurring in the vicinity of March Point can be displaced into Fidalgo and Padilla Bay as described for the one-day impact zone. Net motion is likely to be outward, so that under normal conditions little oil is expected to be driven up into Samish and Bellingham bays. The islands around Rosario Strait including a portion of Deception Pass and the northern shore of Whidbey Island will be affected. The route from Rosario Strait to Cherry Point (Segment 5, Figure VIII-47) lies in a region of apparently high net current which rapidly brings it through the strait and toward the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Spills along the northern portion of this segment in the vicinity of Cherry Point may move past Sandy Point into Lummi Bay and will signifi- cantly impact the shores of Lummi Island. The five-day impact zone from spills occurring in Burrows Bay is given by Figure VIII-48. As discussed for the one-day impact zone, the location of Burrows Bay along the extreme eastern side of the Rosario Strait current complex will probably lead to significant injection of spilled material through Deception Pass into Skagit Bay. Because of the slight net clockwise circulation around Whidby Island, much of the material that actually enters Skagit Bay will be retained for long periods of time, drifting further south and east over periods longer than five days. (3) Anomalous Weather Patterns - Oil Spill Movement. Since the method of definition of oil spill impact zone relies heavily upon obser- vations of net tidal and wind-induced surface current, the principal devi- ation from the predicted potential impact zone would occur under conditions leading to significant changes in net surface current. The role of tide and wind in producing fluctuations around the mean position will be similar under a variety of actual weather patterns. The mean position of the spill, particularly after a day or more, may be quite different from that predicted by the displacement trajectories of Figures VIII-29 and VIII-30 and shown in Figures VIII-36 and VIII-37. At present, not enough is known regarding tidal conditions within the strait and the north Sound to allow predictions of the character and dur- ation of periods with net tidal flow different from that derived from NOAA data. It is possible to speculate as to what tidal current situations might arise; however, it is likely that the current pattern of the south Sound through Admiralty Inlet will not vary greatly from the net south to net north flow already described, since that segment of the sound is a dead end and has a significant freshwater inflow. The north Sound is somewhat different, however. The immense body of water of the Georgia Strait and the connection with the Pacific through the Seymore Narrows and Queen Charlotte Sound represent a far greater opportunity for variation in tidal phenomena. It is conceivable that some conditions might exist at some seasons, phases of the moon, or even for certain types of tidal extremes -- that the hydraulic boundary of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Seymore Narrows would shift position from the lower portion of Queen Char- lotte Sound into the San Juan Islands. If this were to occur on a VIII-130 Arthur D Little, Inc FIGURE VIII'46 FIVE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 4: ROSARIO STRAIT TO MARCH POINT 0 5 10 15 20 - Mi vl@ - - km 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. X, C A N A D A KEY U.S.A. Oil tanker route PO I N T ROBERTS Probable maxi mum mobility 'fr C H E R R Y Of Oil spills occurring .. .... .. PT along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period B E L L I N G N A M 4 ca \zqtz@@ S A N J U A N ISLAND ANACORTES MARCII PT. 0 R I A Oft co 0 HIDBEY S K A G I T B A Y 4d 11"'94 DUNGENESS P 0 R T S P I T A N G E L E S VIII-131 FIGURE VIII-47 FIVE DAY IMPACT ZONE SEGMENT 5: ROSARIO STRAIT TO CHERRY POINT 0 5 10 is 20 Mi - k rn 0 10 20 30 NORTI-I Source: Arthur D. Little, In.c. KEY U.S.A. Oil tanker route POINT ROBERTS Probable maximum mobility C -RRY 111 of oil spills occurring .. . ... .. P1. along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period QK: BELLINGHAM 00 SAN JUAN LA14D 0 ANACORTES MARCH pl. WHIDBEY .................i. . . . . . I S L A N D S K A G I T B A Y DUNGENESS S P I T P 0 R T A N G E L E S iN VIII-132 FIGURE VIII- 48 FIVE DAY IHPACT ZONE - SEGMENT 6: BURROWS BAY 0 5 10 15 20 nil km 0 10 20 30 NORTH Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. C A N A D U.S.A. P0114T R 0 B E R f S KEY Probable maximum mobility@ C 11 F. R R Y of 01*1 spills occurring PT. along oil tanker route due to tide and wind under average conditions over five day period Ito B E L L I N G H A M S A N . J U A N 0 I S L A 14 D A )R "ARCH PT. NAC( TE 0 R I A lk@c HIDBEY I S L A N D SKAGIT B A Y 44, 1@119 -Ve DUNGENESS P 0 R T SPIT A N G E L E S VIII-133 significant basis, oil spilled in the Rosario Strait to Cherry Point seg- ment would have a far greater tendency for net transport northward into the Strait of Georgia. Such flow would be augmented by the prevailing wind patterns in the area and would result in an extension of the impact zone to the north of Cherry Point past Blaine and across the international boundary. No data presently available to this study support such con- jecture, however. Within the Strait of Juan de Fuca, basic tidal hydraulics will per- sist under nearly every condition imaginable. It is possible, however, that net east to west flow may diminish occasionally or that storm con- ditions with strong winds from the west to northwest quadrant could arise which would brief ly alter the pattern of net oil spill transport. Although weather records were not specifically searched to characterize such an incident, it is possible to conjecture that storm conditions could estab- lish a predominant west to east surface current which would act over the course of a day or more. Winds averaging 20 miles per hour would induce surface currents of one-half mile per hour, given the 25% coupling factor between wind and surface oil slick movement. Under such conditions, with a weakening of the net tidal flow, the mean position of oil spill location would shift eastward for the Cape Flattery to Port Angeles segment and for the Port Angeles connecting link. The principal impact would still reamin along the north shore of the Olympic Peninsula but would now in- clude the Dungeness Spit. For the segment from Port Angeles to Rosario Strait, the impact zone would be pressed against Whidbey Island and some oil may enter Admiralty Inlet, the entrance to Puget Sound proper. It is unlikely that conditions would persist long enough for oil to be brought deep within Puget Sound, however. For the route segments connecting Rosario Strait with March Point and Cherry Point, strong persistent storm conditions could bring spilled oil into the vicinity of Bellingham Bay. Casual examination of weather records indicates that the opportunity for such conditions is fairly rare and that, overall, an impact zone signifi- cantly different from that presented in the series of figures would only result from spills occurring during a few percent of the year. b. Marine Resource Impacts (1) Biological Resources - Location/Exposure. The biological re- sources of the marine transit impact zone are categorized according to vertical profile (intertidal, subtidal pelagic, and subtidal benthic) and according to geographic location (tanker route segment) within the total impact zone. The severity of impacts of potential oil spills on different types of marine life is strongly related to their occurrence along the vertical profile of the water column. The risk of oil spill, hence oil exposure, is related to scenario and tanker route segment, as discussed in detail in Section VIII-C-1a. The occurrence of many different types of marine life is also correlated with type of substrate -- rocky, sandy, muddy -- but since substrate type and resources are predictors of each other, substrate type is not explicitly discussed. VIII-134 Arthur D Little, Inc. Owing to the properties of oil spills and their interaction with weather and landforms, intertidal organisms are likely to suffer the most severe immediate effects -from oil spills. Subtidal benthic organisms will be exposed to some immediate, but more longer-term, effects; deepwater pelagic forms are exposed to perhaps less damage than species in the other habitats. Under many circumstances, an oil slick is moved by a combination of tides and winds to encounter the shore while still containing both the volatile, highly toxic fraction and the heavy, tarry, residual fractions. Once ashore, the oil becomes trapped on land by the receding tide and broken into a myriad of individual pockets or strands on rocks, sand beaches, mudflats, saltwater marsh, and tidepools. Oil effects on inter- tidal communities include coating and smothering plant and animal forms, as well as poisoning. Depending upon the type of substrate, cleanup may be rapid -- as on some sand beaches -- or may be difficult to impossible without even greater damage to the living resources in rocky intertidal areas and marshlands. The residual, long-term toxic and carcinogenic fractions of the oil reach the sediments by sinking after the lightweight fractions have eva- porated, or unmodified crude can reach deep benthic sediments by being initially deposited in the intertidal and rapidly retransported out to sea through the action of surf and tides on the shallow sediments. Owing to cold temperatures and oxygen as a limiting factor, biodegradation of the oil may be extremely slow in these sediments, and the oil can persist for periods of at least two years (Blumer and Sass, 1972). Although crude oil has a lower density than seawater and tends to float on the surface, small droplets can be suspended throughout the water column by the turbulence induced by wind and wave action. Many of these droplets are in the same range as the food ingested by zooplankton -- once ingested, this oil can become concentrated in marine food chains. A study of the "ARROW" oil spill disaster off of Nova Scotia revealed that oil particles which had been suspended in the water column were recovered in plankton nets as far as 250 kilometers from the source, 30 days after their formation (Forrester, 1971). Pelagic organisms can also contact oil when it is entrapped in dense kelp beds, and thus accumulates faster than it is washed away. However, since many of the deepwater pelagic organisms are free-swimming adult fish, the streamlined shape and mucoid coating of these animals, and the fact that they are below the main mass of the oil, protects them from the degree of exposure experienced by surface (birds and mammals), benthic, and intertidal species. (2) Sensitivity of Affected Zone - General Appraisal. North Puget Sound is a richer, more sensitive biological environment than the Strait of Juan de Fuca with respect to nearly all the biological resources iden- tified in this study. The economic value summary table (Table VIII-1) shows the. value of the commercial bottom fishery in the strait to be slightly greater than the north Sound, but nearly 90% of this is attribu- table to the fishery of the oceanic waters off Cape Flattery. Without the Cape Flattery component, the value of the north (inner) Sound bottom fishery is 10 times that of the strait (outer Sound). The resource area for bottom fish -- both commercial and sports resources -- is also far VIII-135 Arthur D Little, Inc greater in the north Sound (see Figures VIII-15 and VIII-16). Data for the sports fishery value are difficult to interpret because of overlap between the north Sound and the strait in the definition of one resource area (area 6 in Figure VIII-12), but the data generally indicate a larger catch and greater value for the north Sound. With respect to salmon resources, the commercial productivity of the north Sound area is 11 times as great as the strait (1971-73 gross value'averaged $22 million versus $2 million). The resource area of the strait for commercial fisheries is 20% greater. For sports salmon, the resource area of the strait is nearly twice as large as for the north Sound; the relative value is comparable to the resource area. The resource area for clams (intertidal and subtidal) is roughly IWO equal for the two areas (the north Sound is 29% greater if Skagit Bay is included). However, the clam harvest in the north Sound is 3.6 times as great, and the value of this catch is correspondingly larger. The area of crab resources in the strait is less than one-fourth the north Sound's, and the size of the harvest is nearly 18 times larger throughout the north Sound; its value is 16 times larger. The area of oyster beds is six times greater in the north Sound than in the strait (5 versus 30 square miles). Oysters occur in the coastal waters south of Cape Flattery, but within the strait they are found only within the harbor of Dungeness Spit and in Sequim Bay. There are'many more areas of natural occurrence as well as mariculture within the shallow bays of the inner Sound. Herring spawning (Figures VIII-17 and VIII-18) is more prevalent in the north Sound, especially near the Canadian border. The herring spawn- ing area of the north Sound is 10 times as large as in the strait (90 versus 9 square miles). Shrimp and scallops do not occur in the strait at all. While neither is abundantly distributed throughout the north Sound, there are about30 square miles of shrimp beds in Burrows Bay and the San Juans (Lopez Sound and Passage). Scallops occur in a 20-square mile area of the waters off northern Whatcom County, including offshore Cherry Point. The crab resource area is 4-5 times greater in the inner Sound. This difference correlates well with the difference in commercial crab catch and value. The sports crab catch is 18 times as large in the north Sound, andits value is 16 times as large (1973 harvest year). The area of eelgrass beds is eight times larger in the north Sound (10 times larger if Skagit Bay is included as part of the north Sound). The area of waterfowl habitat is about 160 square miles in the north Sound and only 70 miles in the strait -- less than half. Nearly all marine mammals which are known to occur within the waters of the north Sound must have entered either through the Strait of Juan de Fuca or the Strait of Georgia, so the former is thought to be important VIII-136 Arthur D Little- IInc as a migration route. However, the only species whose major period of residency is spent in the strait is the Dall porpoise. Within the north Sound, the majority of the other species are concentrated either within the San Juan Islands or between these and Vancouver Island. A number of resources are concentrated in either the north Sound or the south Sound (Table VIII-27). Specifically, these resources have half or more of their total resource area in one of these two major subdivisions of the Sound. The Strait of Juan de Fuca does harbor moderate amounts of some resources but does not offer the secluded pro- ductive environments provided by the north or south Sound; hence none of the major marine resources is concentrated in the strait. A corollary of the above resource distribution is that certain areas of the Sound are "richer" in marine resources than others; for the re- sources inventoried in the Marine Atlas series, Table VIII-2 indicates that the south Sound and the Skagit portion of the north Sound are the richest in marine resources. A subarea of the Sound is considered exceptionally rich if it has a greater proportion of a particular resource than would be expected on the basis of area alone. For example, by area Skagit Bay and vicinity is only 4% of Puget Sound, but it has 10% of the Sound's subtidal clam resource, 23% of the shrimp resource, 16% of the eelgrass beds, and is rich in other resources as well. The Skagit area and the south Sound, the richest areas, are exposed to the least amount of oil spill risk due to the tanker transportation routes shown in Figures VIII-32 and VIII-33. (2) Methodology. To assess the impacts of oil tanker transport on Puget Sound's marine resources, the areal extent of each resource potenti- ally affected was calculated as a proportion of the total areal extent of that resource within Puget Sound. Using the maps of 11 different marine resources published in the Washington Department of Natural Resources' Marine Atlas series, the total area shown for each resource was measured with a marked grid such that the number of marks occurring in a resource area could be conver*ted to area in square miles. The area of each resource at risk due to oil movement through the Sound was similarly measured, using the unextended five-day impact zones associated with the various tanker route segments (see the discussion of impact zones in Chapter VI), as an intermediate approximation of the area of waters potentially affected under most wind and tide conditions. Thus, it was possible to calculate for each of 11 marine resources the proportion of the resource area at risk in each major geographic subdivision of the Sound, and in the Sound as a whole. The unextended five-day impact zones resulting from the tanker route were selected to represent the most meaningful measure of area affected by tanker oil spills because (a) the one-day impact zones are too restricted to represent the regional mobility of spilled oil moved by tides and wind, and (b) the five-day extended impact zone, in which the largest spill's center at any point on the edge of the unextended five-day envelope gener- ates a "worst case" impact zone, is so large as to fill the entire channel, VIII-137 10 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIII-27 MARINE RESOURCES LOCATED DISPROPORTIONATELY IN SUBAREAS AT PUGET SOUND SOUND SUBAREA* RESOURCE Total SH sport salmon commercial salmon Skagit area intertidal clams shrimp waterfowl areas eelgrass beds commercial bottom-fishing (crab & herring spawning ground) borderline North PS herring spawning ground scallops crab bottomfish, sport & commercial South PS intertidal clams subtidal clams oysters herring spawning grounds shrimp sport salmon waterfowl areas eelgrass beds SJF = Strait of Juan de Fuca PS = Puget Sound Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-138 Arthur D Little- Inc implicating almost all of a resource's area in some locations. The un- extended five-day impact zone represents a statistically intermediate or 11most likely" impact zone (i.e., not assuming anomalous weather conditions) which does not grossly under- or overestimate the waters potentially affected. The significance of potential oil spill impacts upon a given marine resource was determined in the following way: in each case where the area potentially affected by a five-day impact envelope equaled 30% or more of the resource area of the strait or north Sound, this proportion was then multiplied by the percent of the total Puget Sound resource contained in that subarea to yield the proportion of that resource in all of Puget Sound potentially affected by oil spilled in that portion of the tanker route. 'If oil spilled from a given tanker route segment affected 30% or more of a local subarea's resources, the impact was considered locally significant. If, in addition, 20% or more of Puget Sound's resource area would be affected, due to a concentration of that resource in the subarea,, the impact was considered to be regionally significant as well. As an example, Table VIII-28 shows that 64% of the subtidal clam resource area in west Strait of Juan de Fuca (from Cape Flattery through Port Angeles) would be at risk from spills in tanker route Segment 2. However, since the west strait's clam area is only 6% of the entire clam resource area of Puget Sound (see Table VIII-2), only 0.64 x 0.06 = 0.038 or about 4% of the Sound's clam resource would be at risk -- a locally, but not regionally, significant impact. On the other hand, spills from route Segment 5 would place 34% of the north Sound's scallop resource area at risk. Since 81% of the entire Sound's scallop resource area is in north Puget Sound, 0.34 x 0.81 = 0.275 or about 28% of Puget Sound's scallop resource would be at risk; this becomes a regionally significant impact (actually, risk of impact) as well as a locally significant one. The main weakness in the areal extent method outlined above is that the areas covered by each resource in the Marine Atlas maps do not neces- sarily represent all of that resource in Puget Sound. These areas repre- sent the most important or major concentrations of the resource and do not include, for example, private clam beaches or noncommercial oyster beds. Since these deficiencies would most likely result in a greater underestimation of the total existing resource area than of the area of potential. impact, the affected proportions calculated may be slightly overestimated. The resource areas calculated as "potentially affected" by oil spills are based on the five-day impact zones and thus represent the area of that resource that would be at risk from oil impacts, and not the area actually affected by any given spill. The actual resources affected by an oil spill along the tanker routes would occupy a much smaller area, depending upon the size and conditions of the particular spill, than the area at risk. The area of resources at risk, however, is amenable to estimation, whereas the area actually impacted from a given spill is not; in addition, impacts are better understood in terms of the extent of a given resource or of a given area's resources at risk for all spill sizes and weather conditions than to know the results of one particular spill. 10, VIII-139 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE vin- 28 PERCENT OF LOCAL MARINE RESOURCE AREAS POTENTIALLY AFFECTED BY TANKER ROUTE SPILLS WEST EAST ALL SKAGIT NORTH WEST EAST ALL SKAGIT NORTH RESOURCE SEGMENT SJF* SJF* SJF* AREA PS* RESOURCE SEGMENT SJF* SJF* SJF* AREA PS* Intertidal 1 31 - 12 Salmon 1 57 - 43 clams 2 75 - 28 (sport) 2 55 7 44 3 28 - 10 - 3 47 25 43 13 4 - - - 9 4 7 15 9 18 5 13 5 15 12 15 14 Subtidal 1 - - - Salmon 1 64 1 41 clams 2 64 26 40 (commercidl) 2 31 7 22 3 - - - - 3 46 62 49 32 4 - 5 3 4 7 57 16 33 5 - - - 5 16 51 22 32 Oysters 1 - Waterfowl 1 5 - 2 2 - areas 2 38 - 16 3 3 5 7 6 4 4 - - - 5 4 - - - 19 5 - - - 14 5 15 Herring 1 - - - Eelgrass beds 1 - - - 10 spawning 2 - - - 2 100 - 14 grounds 3 - - - 3 100 - 14 - 4 - - - - 4 - 17 14 4 10 5 - - - 19 5 - - - 10 Shrimp 1 - - - Bottomfish 1 10 - 8 2 - - - (sport) 2 16 13 15 3 - - - 13 3 2 9 3 17 4 - - - 13 4 - - - 9 18 5 5 - - 27 Scallops 1 Bottomfish 1 40 - 11 2 (commercial) 2 51 - 14 3 3 53 30 43 22 4 4 35 21 29 - 23 5 - - - 34 5 40 - 22 24 Crabs 1 32 - 28 2 44 - 39 3 30 26 - 4 5 5 8 SJF Strait of Juan de Fuca; PS Puget Sound; indicates trivial percentage; indicates area not affected) "West SJF" includes Cape Flattery through Poft Angeles rD Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. t I The geographic subareas of Puget Sound selected to facilitate meaning- ful analysis of marine resources were the Strait of Juan de Fuca and north Puget Sound, which includes the Strait of Georgia, the Skagit Bay vicinity, and a small triangle near Port Townsend (Figure VIII-12). Since the oil spill movement study indicated that no spilled oil would enter the Sound south of Port Townsend, Saratoga Passage, or Port Susan, the south Sound was not included in the impact analysis, although its resources were measured so that the affected proportion of the Puget Sound total resource area could be calculated. The Sound could have been divided other ways, such as into the more localized resource areas used in the economic value analysis of DOE's Baseline Study (see Tables VIII-1 and VIII-4). The two large subareas could also be further broken down by tanker route segment; however, these segments were simply constructed for use in the study of oil spill mobility and do not reflect any natural divisions of the Sound. The strait and north Sound do represent different oceanographic environ- ments and, as discussed above, different levels of biological productivity in response to these environments. Finally, the discussion of marine resource impacts will be according to oil development scenario, rather than by resource or by tanker route segment. (4) Scenario Impacts. Oil exposure risk differs for each scenario and for the different years of phased oil development. A discussion of oil spill size and frequency appears in Chapter VI; these elements of oil spill exposure risk differ for the various scenarios because the factors upon which they are based -- throughput, vessel calls, and vessel size -- differ by scenario. 0 Strait of Juan de Fuca Sport and Commercial Resources. The potential impacts upon both the sport and commerclal salmon fisheries of the strait would have regional signiticance especially upon the resources in the western portion, from Cape Flattery to Port Angeles. Oil spilled from tankers moving through the strait and up to Deception Pass (tanker route Segments I and 3) could potentially damage roughly 40-50% of the strait's sport and commercial salmon fisheries (Table VIII-28) and about 20% of the entire Sound's sport and commercial salmon fisheries (Table VIII-29). Most: of the potential impacts of oil spilled in the strait under Scenarios I, III, and IV would have strictly local significance. Large proportions of the strait's crab, commercial bottomfish, eelgrass beds, and the eastern strait's commercial salmon resource areas would be poten- tially affected by oil from tankers moving through the strait and, in the case of commercial salmon and bottomfish, moving through the north Sound (Segments 4 and 5) as well (see Table VIII-28). However, because crabs, commercial bottomfish and eelgrass beds are concentrated in the north or south Sound, the risk of serious impact is locally significant only. 10, VIII-141 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE VIII-29 PERCENT OF PUGET SOUND RESOURCE AREAS AT RISK PERCENT OF TOTAL PORTION OF SOUND PUGET SOUND RESOURCE RESOURCE AT RISK RECEIVING IMPACT* AREA AT RISK Intertidal clams West SJF 1 - 5 Subtidal clams West SJF 4 Oysters North PS 2 Herring spawning grounds North PS 9 Shrimp North PS 2 Scallops North PS 28 Crabs West SJF 4 - 5 Salmon (sport) West SJF 17 - 21 Salmon (commercial) West SJF 11 - 22 Waterfowl areas West SJF 3 Eelgrass beds West SJF 1 Bottomfish (sport) North PS 18 Bottomfish (commercial) West SJF 4 - 5 SJF = Strait of Juan de Fuca PS = Puget Sound "West SJP includes Cape Flattery through Port Angeles Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. VIII-142 Arthur D Little- Inc Forty percent of the strait's 1973 commercial salmon catch equaled $962,391,1 or 3% of the dollar value of the entire Sound's commercial salmon catch for that year. Thus, although a significant portion of the Sound's commercial salmon resource area would be at risk in the strait, due to spills from strait tanker traffic, the greatest catch by dollar value is in north Puget Sound and would not be affected. Because most of the 1973 commercial crab catch was taken in north Puget Sound, the locally significant 31% potentially affected would amount to only $2,189, less than 1% of the entire Sound's 1973 crab catch. On the other hand, because the bulk of the commercial bottomfish catch (dollar value) in 1973 was in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, 45% of the local strait fishery affected would amount of $734,464, or a regionally significant portion --- 41% -- of the Sound's commercial bottomfishery. Thus, a strictly local impact in terms of areal extent of commercial bottomfishery becomes a regionally significant impact in terms of dollar value of the catch. The effect of adding tanker route Segment 2 to Port Angeles to the other segments is to increase somewhat the potential for risk to resources of the western Strait of Juan de Fuca; the risk to resources of the north Sound is not increased since the five-day impact zone of Segment 2 is con- fined to the strait. Of regional significance would be the added effect of spills near Port Angeles on the strait's sport salmon resource; between 17% and 20% of the Sound's sport salmon resource area would be at risk. However, as pointed out in the discussion of the impacts of route Segments 1 and 3, the great majority of the salmon, in terms of dollar value of catch, are taken in the north Sound, so the areal impact must be viewed as not truly regionally significant. Spilled oil from the Port Angeles route segment could also affect both intertidal and subtidal clam resources west of Port Angeles on a strictly local level of significance: While some 75% of intertidal clams and 64% of subtidal clams would be at risk in the western strait, these resources are mainly concentrated in the south Sound and so would not suffer damage or tainting on a regional level if reached by spilled oil. This would also be true for the crab resource, which is concentrated in south and north Puget Sound but which could suffer locally significant damage due to oil spilled in Segment 2, since 44% of the western strait's crab area falls inside the segment's five-day impact zone. The commercial salmon and bottomfish resources would also be at risk on a locally significant level: 31% of the western strait's commercial salmon fishery area and 51% of its commercial bottomfish area could be affected by oil. VIII-143 Arthur D Little Inc Waterfowl. None of the small and sparsely scattered water- fowl areas in the Strait of Juan de Fuca would be affected with even local significance by oil spilled from tankers moving through the strait or north Sound in Scenarios I. HIP or IV, although all of one very small eelgrass bed (not a main waterfowl area) would be at risk due to Segment 3 spills. Both of the western strait's two very small waterfowl areas would be at risk with the addition of the Port Angeles portion of the tanker route. While locally significant, on a regional level almost all the waterfowl areas are located in the larger, shallower, and more protected bays of the north and south Sound. - Marine Mammals. Unlike finfish, which receive most of oil's toxic effects through internal poisoning or long-term sublethal disturb- ances, marine mammals are most immediately susceptible to the surface- coating effects of oil. Coating of the mammal integument with oil produces many of the physiological effects as in birds, since its effect is to remove the insulating properties of the fur and thus expose the animal to thermal shock. More susceptible mammals include seals, sea lions, and sea otters. The most sensitive members of the mammal popu- lations are the young, due to their small weight and their greater surface-to-volume ratio. Whales and dolphins, however, are not subject to coating in the same way as marine mammals which regularly emerge on land or haul out at the surface. In addition, these animals have a smooth skin with isolated bristles for hydrodynamics and utilize a subcutaneous fat layer for insulation. Whales are also conjectured to avoid an oil mass if they detect it, but they may ingest oil with the zooplankton or suspended in the water. Fish-eating whales may be unable to avoid eating tainted fish. Three species of whales and two species of sea lions migrate through the strait to and from their wintering grounds in the north or south Sound. Since the humpback, gray, and killer whales and the California and northern sea lions only traverse the strait and do not live there, and since the whales may be able to make diversions in their routes, these marine mammals would not be as likely to suffer adverse effects of oil spilled along the tanker route as resident or sedentary life. The other marine mammal of concern in the strait is the Dall porpoise, which is found between Cape Flattery and Port Angeles all year around and would probably not be as able to escape oil reaching the strait; the porpoise would also be somewhat sensitive to the spilled oil since it spends most of its time near the surface, where the oil would be concentrated follow- ing a spill. - Anadromous Fish Streams. Table VIII-6 and Figure VIII-27 identify the names of the 13 anadromous fish streams (rivers or streams harboring winter and summer runs of migrating steelhead trout) emptying into the Strait of Juan de Fuca. These streams are all located on the Washington side of the strait and could, at least at their mouths, receive some oil from spills entering strait waters. The effects of oil in the VIII-144 Arthur D Lit de, Inc mouths of anadromous streams would be those of (a) chemical-interference in the "homing" orientations of migrating adult trout or salmon, (b) tox- icity or death to the extremely sensitive trout fry or yearling fish, or (c) tainting of the flesh of otherwise marketable adult fish. The Lyre and Elwha. Rivers were ranked 15th and 23rd, respectively, in terms of numbers of steelhead caught in the winter runs of 1974. The Dungeness River is also a top trout-fishing stream in the strait in terms of both average annual catch and dollar value of catch. Threatened or Endangered Species. The gray and humpback whale, both threatened nationally, would be exposed to spilled oil in the strait at a rather low level of risk, as discussed above under "Marine Mammals." The humpback whale might possibly ingest tainted anchovies and sardines; however these are not the humpback's staple diet. Two potentially threatened birds which could contact spilled oil in the strait are the black oystercatcher and osprey (see Table VIII-30). The actual exposure of members of these species to oil cannot be accurately assessed because of the combined uncertainty of tanker accident location and bird activity. Oil spill mortality has been documented to cause dramatic losses to bird populations and can be instrumental in reducing 11potentially threatened" species to endangered. North Puget Sound Sport and Commercial Resources. While oil spilled from tankers moving through the strait and north Sound would cause only locally significant impacts to marine fisheries on an area basis, the scallop resource area of north Puget Sound would experience both a locally and regionally significant level of risk. Since about 81% of the scallop resource area is in north Puget Sound, the locally signifi- cant 34% area affected amounts to 28% of the whole sound's scallop resource area, a regionally significant impact in terms of both areal extent and dollar value. It should be remembered that this 28% would not be affected by spilled oil, but would be at risk chiefly due to movement of tankers through route Segment 5, from Deception Pass to Cherry Point. Waterfowl. Although north Puget Sound is rich in waterfowl areas compared to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, none of the five-day impact zones of the tanker route segments enters these areas enough to cause even locally significant risk to the waterfowl resource. It should be noted that the rich waterfowl areas of Samish and Skagit bays would not be approached by oil; a small portion of the outer edge of Padilla Bay's waterfowl area and the area off western Whidbey Island may be affected but the magnitude of the effect would be neither locally or regionally significant. - Marine Mammals. Three pinniped species found in the north Sound would be at risk from oil spilled from tanker route Segments 4 and 5, due to their inherent sensitivity to oil and, for two of the three, VIII-145 Arthur D LittIc Inc TABLE VIII- 30 POTENTIALLY THREATENED BIRDS: OCCURRENCE ALONG TANKER ROUTE SEGMENTS Species Segments Northern Bald Eagle 5; 3,4 (possibly) Osprey 1; 2 (possibly)- Black Oystercatcher 1, 2, 5 Western Snowy Plover All (possibly) Caspian Tern All (possibly) VIII-146 Arthur D Littk Inc, the fact that they reside in rather than migrate through the north Sound. Northern sea lions migrating in and out of the Strait of Georgia might not be able to avoid oil in Rosario Strait, if they do not tend to divert their routes as whales are thought to do. Harbor seals residing and breeding in Padilla Bay, Smith Island, and the eastern San Juan Islands would sustain serious damage should an oil slick or poisoned food reach them, since their young are the most sensitive members of the population. The sensitive river otter also inhabits the San Juans; eastern portions of this population would be at the highest level of risk due to oil spilled from tankers in Rosario Strait (Segment 5). Two resident cetaceans would also risk contacting oil in Rosario Strait and the eastern San Juan Islands: the Minke whale and the harbor porpoise., However, these animals as well as the migrant gray whale, which travels to and from the Strait of Georgia, would probably be able to avoid oil in the water, although the possibility still remains of ill effects from eating tainted fish. These whales and porpoises are con- sidered at minor risk compared to the seals, otters, and sea lions. 5 Anadromous Fish Streams. As seen in Table VIII-6 and Figure VIII-32, six anadromous streams would empty into the five-day zone of impact from one or more of the.tanker route segments. Of these, the Skagit River is the most important in terms of trout catch; it was ranked third in numbers of steelhead caught in 1973 and 1974. The Samish and Nooksack rivers are also important steelhead and salmon streams; the others potentially affected -- the Dakota, Squalicum, and Whatcom. Creeks support minor trout resources. The mouths of these rivers could become filled with oil-bearing waters in the event of a spill as tankers near March Point or Cherry Point; adult fish could become poisoned or tainted, or could become disoriented and not migrate correctly, resulting in loss of spawning for the affected stream. Sensitive young could also receive the impacts of oil in the stream mouth if they are in the process of migrating downstream. Especially for the Skagit, Nooksack, and Samish, these impacts are considered to be major and of moderately high li kelihood should a spill occur in tanker route Segments 4 or 5. - Threatened or Endangered Species. The gray whale, which migrates through the San Juan Islands and Rosario Strait to and from the Strait of Georgia, would be at very minor risk, due to its relatively low sensitivity to oil and the fact that it is not resident but migratory and can possibly alter its route to avoid oil-bearing waters. A few individuals of the black oystercatcher, western snowy plover, or caspian tern may happen to be along the beaches or in waters potenti- ally affected by oil spilled in tanker route Segments 4 or 5 (see Table VIII-30). These birds, as all shorebirds, would suffer from surface- coating effects should oil contact them. C. Summary Combination of the resources at risk from each route segment with scenario utilization of the segments (Table VIII-31) leads to several conclusions: (1) Although generally less rich in marine resources than VIII-147 Arthur D Littic Inc TABLE VIII-31 SUMMARY MARINE RESOURCES IMPACT Tanker Route Segment* Cape Flattery Port Angeles Rosario Strait Rosario Strait Impact Area To Port Angeles Port Angeles To Rosario Strait To March Point To Cherry Point Strait of Juan SPORT SALMON SPORT SALMON SPORT SALMON commercial commercial de Fuca COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL salmon salmon SALMON SALMON SALMON commercial commercial DALL PORPOISE DALL PORPOISE DALL PORPOISE bottomfish bottomfish HUMPBACK WHALE HUMPBACK WHALE HUMPBACK WHALE (possibly) (possibly) (possibly) Intertidal Intertidal Crabs clams clams Commercial Crabs Subtidal clams bottomfish Commercial Commercial Eelgrass beds bottomfish bottomfish Steelhead of Lyre, Waterfowl Elwha, & areas Dungeness Rivers 41 Eelgrass beds 00 Steelhead of Lyre, Elwha, & Dungeness Rivers North Puget Sound none none none HARBOR SEAL SCALLOPS RIVER OTTER SPORT BOTTOMFISH MINKE WHALE HARBOR SEAL Steelhead of MINKE WHALE Skagit, Steelhead of Samish Nooksack River Rivers All capital letters indicates regional impact; lower case indicates local impact. > Source: rD 0 TABLE VIII-31 (Continued) SUMMARY MARINE RESOURCES IMPACT Tanker Route Segments Cape Flattery Port Angeles Rosario Strait Rosario Strait Scenario To Port Angeles Port Angeles To Rosario Strait To March Point To Cherry Point I. Regional Supply Only moderate none moderate moderate moderate II. Northern Tier at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker high moderate/high moderate moderate moderate B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline high high low low low III. Transshipment at Cherry Point high none high low high IV. Regional supply by Trans Mountain Pipeline low none low low low the north Sound, many more impacts of regional significance occur in the Strait of Juan de Fuca, since all vessels entering the Sound must first pass through the strait; (2) Scenario III, transshipment at Cherry Point, will produce potentially most severe impacts on the strait's marine resources; (3) Scenario II-A will have slightly lower impacts on the strait, but greater effects on the north Sound; and (4) Scenario IV clearly presents the lowest risk of impacts to marine life. 2. Terrestrial Environment - Pipelines a. Scenario Involvement of Pipeline Corridors Table viii-32 shows the involvement of each pipeline link in each scenario, and the level of activity in that link associated with that particular scenario. Thus, the Peninsula Link is involved in Scenarios II-A and II-B only. In both II-A and II-B, the Northern Tier Pipeline originates at Port Angeles; in II-A the line is used for out-of-state transshipment only; in II-B it also supplies the north Puget Sound refineries via the Puget Spur. The transshipment proposal of both Scenarios II-A and II-B also involves the East Washington Link of the Northern Tier line. In Scenario III-A, transshipment originating at Cherry Point, the pipeline used is the Puget Spur in reverse with connection to a 40-foot line in the East Washington Link. In II-B above the Puget Spur requires a 20-inch line only; in III-A, the additional volume of crude to be moved necessitates a 40-inch line. The remaining scenarios -- I (A and B), III-B, and IV -- do not utilize either the Northern Tier Pipeline or the Puget Spur. Scenario I is regional crude supply by tanker only, coupled with existing product pipelines. Scenario III-A, Trans Mountain Reversal, will require new pump stations by 1980 to reverse the flow between Cherry Point and Sumas (i.e., Cherry Point to Laurel Pump Station, Laurel Pump Station to Sumas). The 1985 development of Scenario III-B with a Trans Mountain Loop to Canada would require the construction of a new 30-40- inch pipeline parallel and adjacent to the existing line in these two segments. In this case, some supply to the March Point refineries would probably continue to be by tanker, since the volume of specialty crude to be moved would not economically justify the construction of a heated line from Cherry Point to March Point.(i.e., Cherry Point to Laurel Pump Station, Laurel to Burlington Pump Station, Burlington Pump Station-to March Point) to carry some of the high-paraffin Indonesian and North African crudes used,by the Shell and Texaco refineries. Scenario IV is defined by reestablishing supply to the north Puget Sound refineries by non-Canadian crude via the existing Trans Mountain line,, operating at full existing capacity with no new construction nec- essary. This scenario thus involves the Trans Mountain Line (Laurel Pump Station to Sumas), the segment between Laurel Pump Station and Cherry Point, between Laurel and Burlington pump stations, and the segment be- tween the Burlington Pump Station and March Point. VIII-150 Arthur D Little Inc. TABLE VIII- 32 SCENARIO INVOLVEMENT OF PIPELINE CORRIDORS Activity by Pipeline Corridor -Scenario Peninsula Link East Washington Link Puget Spur Trans Mountain I Regional Supply Only None None None Cessation of supply through existing pipeline A. Vessel Size Unrestricted B. Vessel Size Restricted to 120,000 DWT or less 11 Northern Tier Pipeline at Port Angeles A. Regional Supply by Tanker 40-42 inch pipeline 40 inch pipeline None Cessation of supply through existing pipeline B. Regional Supply by Puget Spur Pipeline 42 inch pipeline 40 inch pipeline 20 inch pipeline None III Transshipment at Cherry Point A. Northern Tier Corridor Pipeline None 40 inch pipeline 40 inch pipeline None B. Trans Mountain Corridor Pipeline None None None 1980 - new pump stations 1985 - new 30 inch pipeline IV Supply by Trans Mountain Pipeline None None None Full capacity operation of existing pipeline NOTE: Scenario subcases A and 8 are distinct for Scenario I only with regard to tanker activity and for Scenario II only with regard to pipeline activity; thus they are not shown on every table in the report. fD b. Introduction and Comparison A comparative summary of the land use and terrestrial biology impacts of the three major pipeline links of this study: the Northern Tier Pipe- line-Peninsula Link, Northern Tier Pipeline-East Washington Link, and Puget Spur are given in Tables VIII-33 and VIII-34. Much of the infor- mation presented earlier and in Tables VIII-8 to VIII-22 actually speci- fies the environmental impact and overlaps with the impact discussion. Owing to the linear nature of a pipeline route, it is more meaningful to characterize the existing environment of the route itself rather than of the general region. In other words, a better understanding of the pipeline route impacts is achieved by characterizing the immediate impact area, since a broader zone defined over such a distance would not be meaningful for understanding the impacts of the pipeline itself. The nature of oil pipeline land use and terrestrial biology impacts is given in Chapter VI; the discussion of the specific effects of the particular pipeline routes on particular geographic areas is given here. C. Northern Tier Pipeline - Peninsula Link (1) Land U se Impacts, The most important land use impacts of the Peninsula Link of the Northern Tier Pipeline are taking forested lands and possible spill damage to watercourses in the Olympic Peninsula. Im- pacts on watercourses are largely discussed under terrestrial biology impacts. Impacts on agricultural lands in the coastal terrace of Port Angeles and Sequim and in south Puget Sound, as well as the number of road and railroad crossings, are also significant. The majority of the route (69%, or 117 out of its 170 miles) follows existing rights-of-way, largely of the power transmission lines which skirt the edge of the Olympic Mountains. As explained in the overall description of pipeline impacts given in Chapter VI under "Project Com- ponents," a pipeline which can follow a transmission line right-of-way through the mountains has reduced impact by comparison to one which follows a road, since the additional cleared and graded corridor required is narrower, A minimum of about 96 miles (1170 acres) of forested land will be cleared on existing right-of-way and 33 miles (400 acres) on new right- of-way in this segment. Much of these lands do not have high present value as timber because, with the exception of a patch in the vicinity of Brinnon, they are not sustained-yield reforested lands. Most were last cut within the past 50 years or so and are now represented by numerous stands of moderately mature, successional mixed deciduous/coniferous forest. Most of the lands are in private ownership so that considerable conflicts with the owners of small holdings can arise over the taking of the productive use of their land and their future rights to manage it as they see fit. A large number of watercourses are crossed by the Peninsula Link 51 on existing rights-of-way, of which 10 are major rivers, and 23 on new rights-of-way, of which five are major rivers. While these streams VIII-152 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE VIII-33 PIPELINE LAND USE SUMMARY All Links Pipeline Forest Riparian Agric. Urban Stream Crossings Transportation Totals Miles % Miles % Miles % Miles % MaJor Minor Crossings Northern Tier Peninsula Link 96.2 82 3.26 2.8 16,9 14.4 .58 0.5 10 41 87 116.9 32.6 61.8 1.65 3.2 12.7 24.2 5.97 21.3 5 18 65 52.9 T6-9-. -9 (Link total) East Washington 24.3 87.6 2.36 8.5 0 0 1.08 3.9 2 17 18 27.8 Link 3.24 96.4 0.12 3.6 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 3.4 -- T 31. (Link total) Puget Spur 47.09 59.8 5.38 6.8 11.18 14.2 15.2 19.3 8 40 94 78.9 20.5 37.8 3.36 6.2 12.3 22.6 18.2 33.6 6 23 66 54.4 TJT.-3- (Link total) Transmountain Link (Laurel to Sumas only) Ln w 4.21 29.3 1.03 72 63 44.0 2.8 19.5 4 3 16 14.36 Source: Compiled from Segment Land Use Tables (VIII-A- to VIII-A Bold Face Type: Existing right-of-way. ItaZic Type New r-ight-of-way fD F TABLE VIII-34 PIPELINE LAND USE IMPACT Minimum Acreages Affected by 100' Corridor L A N D U S E Pipeline Forest Riparian Agriculture Urban Totals Northern Tier Peninsula Link 1166 40 205 6 1417 395 20 154 72 641 2TST (Link total) East Washington 295 29 0 13 337 Link 39 2 0 0 41 -T7-8 (Link total) Puget Spur 571 65 136 184 956 248 41 149 221 659 (Link total) Transmountain Link (Laurel tb Sumas only) 51 12.5 77 34 174 Bold Face Type Existing right-of-way ItaZic Type - New right-of-way Source: Table VIII-B- VIII-154 Arthur D Little Inc do not provide the main domestic water supply for any major cities, they are important surface drainages with many beneficial uses (discussed under Terrestrial Biology). The forested watershed lands of these streams are sensitive to removal of the vegetation and have high erosion and landslide potential because of their steep angle of repose and the saturated soil conditions which exist during at least half of the year. Thus, in the Olympic portion of the Peninsula Link there is a relatively high proba- bility of siltation of surface streams due to pipeline corridor construc- tion and a chance of oil contamination of individual streams in the infrequent event of pipeline rupture caused by landsliding, or structural or accidental failure. A number of these streams are used for recreational fishing or swimming, but these uses are mostly higher in the watershed than the point where oil would enter. The streams north of the Little Quilcene River drain to the north into either Port Discovery, Sequim Bay, or the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Big and Little Quilcene rivers drain to Quilcene Bay, and the more southern streams of the Olympic Peninsula empty into the Hood Canal. The remaining streams of the Peninsula Link drain into the many narrow inlets, passages, and bays of south Puget Sound. The numerous beneficial uses of these bodies of water could be adversely affected, on a very infrequent basis, by oil pollution in stream runoff. (Marine resources and beneficial uses of anadromous streams are discussed under Tanker Transport.) Urban lands are relatively unimportant by comparison to other land uses in that they comprise only 11% of the Peninsula Link (0.6 miles on new right-of-way and 6 miles on new right-of-way). Nevertheless, the new right-of-way portion will disturb 6 miles (a minimum of 72 acres) in a number of small communities along the western edge of the Hood Canal in south Puget Sound. Numerous individual small holdings are in the corridor area, and the pipeline right-of-way will amount to both a visual and nuisance impact as well as a restriction on future land use which 10 could affect the development potential of adjoining land. Ownership and right-of-way acquisition will probably be a significant problem on the Peninsula Link because the vast majority of the lands are in private ownership. Individual opposition to the sale of the right-of- way corridor may be encountered by owners of both new and existing right- of-way portions of the link. During field reconnaissance, the consultant was exposed to extremely negative sentiment toward an additional oil pipe- line by several owners of hundred-acre woodlot parcels where public utility corridors had already cut several wide, overlapping swathes through their lands. The Peninsula Link crosses public lands in several places. Its corridor makes several brief excursions through the edge of the Olympic National Forest -- one between Sequim and Center, one south of Quilcene, one near Lake Cushman, and one northwest of Shelton. The route also crosses forest board county trust lands in several places, and forest board fee lands in Thurston County. Right-of-way through these lands is probably relatively easily obtained from the public agencies with jurisdiction over them, or from the timber companies holding timber rights to them. VIII-155 Arthur D Little- Inc 0 Pipeline construction will have a fairly high nuisance impact on travelers, since the route encounters an average of 1.I roads per mile, and a major state or interstate highway once every 20 miles -- 8 in all, 152 transportation corridors in all. The impact of road crossings is not appreciably different for roads crossed on existing versus new rights- of-way since in either case the normal function of the road must be temporarily disrupted by pipeline construction. During the course of pipeline construction over several months, several thousand motorists could be minimally to significantly inconvenienced. This may have a minor impact on the extensive tourism industry of the Peninsula. To the degree to which lane closures, detours, and the presence of an obstruction and work crew affect highway safety, pipeline construction can also in- crease the accident potential on the affected roads. Restrictions on or normal traffic flow can also delay the flow of goods along the Olympic Peninsula to and from the urban communities along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Hood Canal. Agriculture is a relatively important land use along the Peninsula Link, comprising a total of 17 miles on existing and about 13 miles on new right-of-way. Creation of a 100-foot corridor could thus temporarily affect the productivity of about 350 acres of these lands (150 of which will be on new right-of-way). The extent of actual crop loss involved will depend on the seasonal occurrence of the disturbance. The impacts on the new right-of-way cultivated lands will be the greatest because of the problem of access. There will be little long-term impact. (2) Terrestrial Biology_Impacts. The Peninsula Link of the Northern Tier Pipeline, which runs 170 miles from Morse Creek in Clallam County to Selleck in King County, will have significant impacts on forested lands, surface waters, riparian zones, and sensitive areas, and could impact several threatened or endangered species. In all, the link traverses 129 miles of forested lands, of which 33 require creation of new-right-of-way and the remainder largely follow power line rights-of-way. Most of these forest lands are mixed coniferous/ deciduous woods of varying maturity and successional stage. The existing transmission line right-of-way forms a highly visible cleared scar, one hundred to several hundred feet wide at some points. Further impacts of corridor widening for the pipeline will be significant -- an increase in corridor width by a factor of 25-100%; however, the main impacts on terrestrial wildlife will have already occurred as a result of clearing the original corridor. Herbicides and other vegetation removal techniques are used within a transmission line corridor to keep the strip free of tall, obstructing vegetation. The impacts of these will be moderately increased by right-of-way widening, but will be considerably less than the impact of clearing and maintaining a new right-of-way. (See the discussing given under Impact Characteristics of Project Components in Chapter VI.) The 33 miles of new right-of-way through forest lands will constitute significant disturbance and permanent habitat removal for wildlife utilizing the affected second-growth forest. One of the areas which will be cut with the new right-of-way is the dense, pure stand of Douglas fir north of Shelton in Segment 3 (Potlatch to Shelton). VIII-156 Arthur D Little Inc. All of the areas cleared during pipeline construction, including the corridor, its periphery, and access roads cut through adjoining parts of the forest to allow storage of equipment or aid movement of construction vehicles, will revegetate first with weedy species -- grasses and com- posites -- and then rapidly with the seedlings of fast-growing species -- alder and big leaf maple -- as well as a scattering of the longer-lived coniferous trees -- Douglas fir and red cedar. Cut areas other than the maintained corridor which are allowed to completely revegetate should take several years to develop a dense ground cover, and anywhere from 30 to more than 100 years to attain their previous appearance. A high proportion of the forest lands which will be traversed by new right-of- way are in the flat lands of south Puget Sound interspersed with agri- cultural lands, rather than on the slopes of the Olympic Mountains. Deliberate revegetation of cut areas peripheral to the corridor or adjoining access roads could be done as a mitigating measure to minimize erosion and aid recovery from disturbance. This should be accomplished by planting some of the later-arriving tree species. A large number of watercourses are impacted by the Peninsula Link. As described in Chapter VI, the impact of a stream crossing is roughly equivalent for new and existing right-of-way portions of the route because the same construction techniques are usually required, except in those rare instances where the pipeline may cross the stream on the trestle of an existing bridge. In all, 74 creek and river crossings are required in the Peninsula Link. Some of these may be at two different points on the same stream (see Tables VIII-8 to VIII-14). Fifteen of the 74 crossings are of major rivers, including the Dungeness, Big and Little Quilcene, DuckabushP Dosewallips, Skokomish, Deschutes, Nisqually, Black, and Carbon. The total riparian zone crossings add to 4.9 miles of the link, or about 60 acres, including the width of the watercourses themselves. These numerous riparian corridors contain a nearly complete repre- sentation of all of the freshwater aquatic species found in the coastal area of Washington, including anadromous and freshwater fish and inverte- brates. As summarized in Chapter VI, impacts of the stream crossings and the presence of the completed oil pipeline on these resources include increased siltation of the streams from the crossing and from the corridor higher in the watersheds, and the risk of infrequent but catastrophic oil releases from pipeline rupture. The latter risk is highest in the moun- tainous portions of the route. All of the watercourses would be affected by the construction impacts since these are certain to occur. Only one or at most a few of the drainages are likely to ever be exposed to oil spill effects, since these occurrences are both localized and have a very low probability. For the affected streams, there could be major kills, loss of recruitment, severe reduction of anadromous runs, or tainting of many of the resources which would lead to the temporary loss of recre- ational fisheries. Figure VIII-49 shows the location of Washington Department of Fish- eries and Department of Game hatcheries in relation to the streams crossed by the Peninsula Link. Five hatcheries are located directly on VIII-157 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE VIII-49 .......... . ... . PORT A GELES 2 3 EVERETT 4 5 6 SEATTLE 17 8 LLEC Q) 16 00 STAMPEDE PASS 14 TACOMA 15 10 YM 13 12 Rivers @) Fish hatchery 0 10 20 M1 1 - Morse Cr. km 2 - Dungeness R. 0 10 20 30 3' - Quilcene R. 4 - Little Quilcene R. SOURCES: NORTH 5 - Dosewallips R. Bob Foster, Salmon Culturing 6 - Duckabush R. 12 - Deschutes R. Division, Washington Depart- 7 - Hamma Hanima R . 13 - Nisqually R. ment of Fisheries; Office of 8 - Skokom ish R. 14 - Puyallup R. Program Planning & Fiscal 9 - Skookum Cr. 15 - Carbon R. Management, State o"' Washing- 10 - Kennedy Cr. 16 - Green R. ton Pocket Data Book 1976, 11 - Black R. 17 - Cedar R. Dec. 1976. VIII-158 streams crossed by the route. Of these, only one, the Carbon River hatchery, is located downstream of the pipeline crossing. In the event of a pipeline break and spill affecting tne Carbon River, the water di- verted from the river for the hatching and rearing tanks could be polluted with oil. Since eggs, larvae, and newly hatched young fish are extremely sensitive to oil at even very low concentrations, the river water could be unusable for several weeks or longer after a major spill. Hatchery production is dependent on a continuously available supply of high-quality water at the correct temperature, which is cycled through the rearing tanks and returned to the river. If this water became un- usable as a result of oil contamination, it is unlikely that an alternate source could be devised; the hatchery would probably have to close temporarily, with the loss of an entire seasonal salmon release. After the acute phase of the spill, the river water would have to be monitored for several months to guard against the loss of the next season's production. Where hatcheries are located upstream of the pipeline crossings, or on small upstream tributaries (e.g., the Puyallup hatchery), accidental oil release will not affect hatchery water withdrawal, but could still result in a kill of young fish if a release had been made just prior to the spill.. The Peninsula Link passes through a number of sensitive areas, as defined in Chapter VI. In Segment 4 (Tumwater to Frederickson) the pipe- line will cross three marshes totaling 885 acres, and some six miles of Puget prairies, all on new right-of-way. In Segment 5 (Orting to Cumber- land quadrangles) the line will cross one marsh on existing right-of-way. The nature of oil pipeline impacts on these types of sensitive areas is also described in Chapter VI. The extent of disruption of wildlife activ- ities through both physical disturbance and removal of vegetation is a function of the cross section of the marsh at the point where the pipeline traverses it, but not directly a function of the size of the marsh. The larger the marsh, the more wildlife will utilize it, but in a marsh as large as 250 or more acres, many animals could leave the area of immediate disturbance and still find suitable habitat. In a 250-acre marsh, a bird could move one-half mile from the construction site and still be within the wetland area. If the marsh is elongated in shape, the distance a bird could move in one dimension would be even greater and the instances where marshes are elongated are those where engineering cost dictates that the pipeline cross the marsh rather than skirt the perimeter. Wetland vege- tation has extremely high productivity, so that the disturbed cut for the corridor should quickly revegetate. In any event, the most serious im- pacts would result in the rare event the wetland was contaminated by spilled oil after accidental release. A number of endangered, threatened, or potentially threatened wild- life species could occur along the Peninsula Link or its vicinity (see Table VIII-7). These include the endangered peregrine falcon which nests in both the Olympic and Cascade Mountains, and several potentially VIII-159 Arthur D LittIc Inc 0 threatened species whose populations are declining in numbers owing to 0 habitat losses, pesticide effects, and killings. These are the pileated woodpecker which resides and breeds in forested areas east and west of the Cascades, the mountain quail which is known to reside in lower Puget Sound around Olympia, and the Northern bald eagle which breeds west of the Cascades and is known to winter on the Olympic Peninsula. Potenti- ally threatened species could suffer increased population depletion from 0 additional projects which expose them to disturbance or take more of their habitat, including pipelines or other utility corridors. If past trends continue, these species may be reduced to the status of threatened species. Further encroachments on their habitat in the absence of deliberate manage- ment schemes to protect them will most likely result in a continuing decline in their chance for survival. Endangered species such as the peregrine falcon are already so depleted that their entire existence is critically sensitive to even minor disturbance or further habitat destruc- tion. d. Northern Tier Pipeline - East Washington Link (1) Land Use Impacts. The East Washington Link (within the coastal counties) is a short 30-mile segment running betweenSelleck and Stampede Pass, at the crest of the Cascades. The area traversed is little urban- ized and none of it is in agricultural use. Consequently, this pipeline link would have only minor urban impacts -- four miles cross three small towns or vicinities, for a total of 13 acres, and only 18 transportation corridors are crossed, none of which is a major highway. The most significant impacts of the East Washington Link are on the forested watershed lands of Snoqualmie National Forest. A large portion of the link passes through the Green River watershed which supplies the City of Tacoma. The route crosses the Green River itself twice and cuts across the north arm of the Howard Hansen Reservoir, a major impound- ment in this water supply system. Land in the Green River watershed is extremely steep. Of the 21 miles of the East Washington Link within this watershed, all of the surrounding lands have an average area slope of over 10%, and all but four miles have an average area slope of 30% or greater. An additional two miles of the link pass through an area of the Cedar River watershed for the City of Seattle, where the average area slope is between 10% and 20%. The impact of this pipeline link in these watersheds is potentially high because of the combination of pipeline rupture hazards and environ- mental sensitivity. The extremely steep slopes dictate that an exception- ally wide corridor must be created to allow maneuverability of the cons- truction crew, which simultaneously increases the risk of erosion from the corridor. Vegetation removal and erosion reduces the water-holding capacity of the watershed, and produces excess siltation in the streams. Landslide risk is extremely high, mediated by very steep terrain and high precipitation. The risk is intensified by vegetation removal in and around the pipeline corridor. Pipeline rupture caused by such ground slippage would almost certainly contaminate the Green River and render the water VIII-160 Arthur D Little, Inc unsuitable for domestic use for a period of several days to weeks, until the system was both mechanically cleaned and flushed out by river flow. Oil-contaminated water allowed to run out to sea would pollute the waters of Elliott Bay, south of Seattle. The pipeline link is also likely to impact a large number of private landowners because of the established "checkerboard" pattern of public and private lands in this region, with a grid size of about one square mile. Opposition to an additional right-of-way corridor is likely to run high because of the existence of a corridor already 600 feet wide throughout most of this link, which houses five or six power transmission lines. The present corridor width in no way insures that no further widening is necessary for the pipeline because the present arrangement of transmission line towers gives a clear space of at most 50 feet between centers and does not provide a sufficient margin for construction. For every linear mile of corridor, a right-of-way 600 feet wide constitutes a taking of 73 acres. The taking of an additional 100 feet (17% more land) represents a significant incremental loss to the owners of this land. (2) Terrestrial Biology Impacts. Forested lands comprise 27.5 out of the total of 31 miles traversed by the East Washington Link of the Northern Tier Pipeline. Of these,, 24 follow existing rights-of-way, primaril- of the multiple transmission lines which generally parallel the @y Green River, and also of the Burlington Northern Railroad through the Cascades. The power line transmission corridor has been expanded over the years to include more lines, so that a large portion which runs through the Green River watershed contains six lines and is about 600 feet wide. The power line corridor through both private and public lands of the Snoqualmie National Forest has already had major impact. The pipeline will increase the corridor width by only about 15-20%; habitat loss impacts should be roughly proportional to this, and thus small in compari- son to the existing corridor. Construction impacts will create additional physical disturbance. For its length, the East Washington Link has significant impacts on riparian corridors. In all, 2.5 of its 31 miles cross riparian zones, which include 20 minor and two major stream crossings; the two major crossings are of the Green River in the Tacoma watershed. The nature of stream crossing impacts on the beneficial uses of the streams and biotic resources are discussed in Chapter VI. Since the Green River crossings occur relatively high in the watershed, siltation and oil contamination impacts can affect the majority of the river. In addition to crossings, the pipeline closely parallels the Green River for about one mile near the intersection of McCain Creek with the major channel. In this section, more riparian vegetation will be destroyed during construction than for a crossing, and the risk of impacts on the stream due to failure of the pipe is slightly increased. There is one other mile-long segment where the pipeline closely parallels a stream in the East Washington Link- Sunday Creek in the Lester Quadrangle. VIII-161 Arthur D Little, Inc Sensitive areas intersected by the pipeline are 'Largely confined to the Howard Hansen Reservoir, and the very small (five--acre) Page Mill Pond. The major impacts on the reservoir relate to its beneficial uses (land use impacts) which are discussed under Pipeline Impacts Land Use. The pond is so small that it is doubtful that the pipeline would ever cross it in preference to detouring around it. A number of endangered or potentially threatened species occur in the area crossed by the pipeline. These include the endangered peregrine falcon which resides both east and west of the Cascades and is thought to nest within these mountains, and several potentially threatened species -- the spotted owl, pileated woodpecker, and osprey. The spotted owl is known to breed in wet coniferous forests within the Cascade range; the pileated woodpecker is found in coniferous forests east and west of the Cascades. The osprey is known to breed, among otherlocations, in the Snoqualmie National Forest and in Snoqualmie Pass. Protection pro- cedures for these species recommended by the Washington Department of Ecology include the protection of known nesting areas by the prohibition of logging in the vicinity of nesting trees. Protection for the pileated woodpecker includes the provision of adequate virgin timber stands. In order for these measures to mitigate impacts of pipeline construc- tion, particularly through new right-of-way areas, pipeline construction must be preceded by a search of the area-during nesting season to identify possible nest sites within a range that could be affected by the pipeline route. The area would probably have to be avoided completely or the pipe- laying would conflict directly with identified protection policies for these species, which involve habitat preservation. At the very least, construction would have to be scheduled out of the breeding season, and as much as possible when the birds were thought not to be in the area at all. e. Puget Spur (1) Land Use Impacts.. The Puget Spur will have significant impacts on forested, agricultural, and urban lands. Nearly two-thirds is on existing right-of-way, which reduces the overall impacts somewhat, although this mitigation is more pronounced for terrestrial biology than for land use impacts.(see Table VIII-32). The largest proportion of the Puget Spur traverses forested lands (68 out of its 133 miles -- 47 miles on existing and 21 on new right-of-way). A small portion of this (about four miles) is Cedar River watershed lands, which provide the water supply for the City of Seattle. Once again, similar to the situation for the East Wash- ington Link in the Green River watershed, the potential for pipeline rupture and contamination of the Cedar River exists, but the risk for the Puget Spur is considerably smaller because a far smaller length of pipe is involved, and because the lands traversed lie in much gentler slopes of 0-20%, with only one mile of slopes of 30-40%. The Cedar River flows west and then north to empty into Lake Washington between Seattle and Bellevue, so that in the rare event that a pipeline rupture in the watershed released a large quantity of oil into the river, the entire downstream area, includ- ing Lake Washington, could suffer the effects (biotic effects are discussed under Terrestrial Biology). VII1-162 Arthur D Little- Inc The route traverses private lands almost exclusively; the only public lands crossed are scattered forest board county trust lands in Whatcom and Snohomish counties. Similar to the other pipeline links, problems of right-of-way acquisition could be encountered from the numerous private landowners, particularly when the pipeline right-of-way is proposed to be parallel and immediately adjacent to an already wide transmission line corridor. Urban lands comprise 33 miles or 25% of the route, 18 of which will lie on new right-of-way. In all, about 400 acres in 17 different urban or suburban areas will be affected by the construction and maintenance of the 100-foot corridor. In Scenario II-B the acreage affected would be reduced by about 30% since the 20-inch line in this scenario would require a corridor only 70 feet wide. The construction of the pipeline can have nuisance effects on several hundred to several thousand persons over a short period of time (several weeks). (See discussion of nuisance effects given under Impact Character of Project Components.) The maintenance of the finished corridor without permanent structures or mature woody vege- tation can affect the potential to subdivide and sell the parcels of which the corridor forms a part, as well as the value or salability of adjoining parcels because of the visual impact of the linear pipeline "scar" and the psychological implication of industrial use in a primarily residential area. Since a high proportion of the Puget Spur traverses urban lands, the route crosses many transportation corridors. In all, 160 transportation corridors must be crossed -- 94 on existing right-of-way, 66 on new right- of-way. Of these, 12 are major state or interstate highways (five on existing, seven on new right-of-way). The total extent of inconvenience to motorists, increase in highway accident risk, and temporary restriction of normal traffic flow is highest for the Puget Spur in comparison with the other pipeline links. A conservative estimate of about one million vehicle-trips will be affected during the pipeline construction phase, on all routes crossed; the effects will range from minor delay to complete rerouting. In addition to the Cedar River discussed above, a large number of watercourses are affected by Puget Spur construction. These include 14 large rivers -- eight on existing and six on new right-of-way -- and 64 other creeks, streams, and other channels, of which 40 are on existing rights-of-way. A total of 77 surface drainages are crossed by this pipe- line link. All of these surface streams are subject to some degree of siltation and erosion during pipeline construction and from the poorly vegetated scar, and to the varying risk of oil contamination due to future pipeline breakage. These risks are proportional to the slope and soil stability of the surrounding lands, and the impacts on beneficial uses are a function of the combination of risk and the importance of the stream. Impacts on aquatic life are discussed under Terrestrial Biology. About 18% of the Puget Spur traverses agricultural lands. The majority of contiguous agricultural lands crossed are in the northern segments of this link, in Whatcom and Skagit counties. In all, the route crosses about VIII-163 Arthur D Little Inc 23 miles of cultivated lands, of which 11 are on existing rights-of-way. At the least, corridor construction will affect 75 acres of farmed land on existing and 150 acres on new-rights-of-way. The 70-foot corridor of Scenario II would take correspondingly less. The productivity of these lands will be temporarily affected in the manner described in Chapter VI. (2) Terrestrial Biology Impacts. The Puget Spur traverses 68 miles of forest land, of which 47 are on existing rights-of-way, mostly adjacent to the corridor of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline. Although there is pipe in place for the existing line, the corridor would have to be widened by 50-100 feet for the new 42-inch line (about double its present width). The remaining 21 miles, which run through forest lands, require new right-of-way. A portion of this, Segment 5 between the Burlington Pump Station and east of Everett, is within the right-of-way corridor owned by the Trans Mountain Pipeline Company, but no pipe has ever been installed in the corridor, so the impact is the same as all new disturb- ance. The total acreage disturbed by 100-foot corridor widening on existing right-of-way is 571, and on new right-of-way it is 248. These are minimum figures for the corridor itself and do not include access to the corridor where this does not now exist. The Puget Spur will have highly significant impacts upon streams and riparian zones since it intersects 14 major rivers and 63 other creeks and streams, which comprise most of the watercourses draining to the west from.the Cascades north of the latitude of Stampede Pass. Some of the most important bodies of water intersected include the Nook- sack, Samish, Skagit, Stillaguamish, Pilchuk, Cedar, Skykomish, and Snoqualmie rivers and Samish Lake. In all, the link crosses about nine miles of riparian zones and will thus disturb roughly 100 acres. Many of the streams which will be subject to definite construction impacts and to possible oil spillage are important anadromous fish runs and con- tain an abundance of freshwater biota as well. The location of state salmon and trout hatcheries in relation to the streams crossed by the Puget Spur is given in Figure VIII-50. In all, 11 hatcheries are located directly on rivers crossed by the pipeline route. Of these, only the Cedar River hatchery is downstream of the crossing. The impacts of oil release on fish hatchery production and releases is discussed above under Terrestrial Biology Impacts on the Peninsula Link. In the event of oil contamination of one of these streams, a seasonts run of both hatchery and natural production of stream could be destroyed. A number of the larger rivers, such as the Nooksack and Skagit, are also the source of freshwater feeding the intensely productive estuaries of the north Sound, and the source of sediments for their tidelands. While the risks of oil damage to these areas from spillage associated with pipeline rupture are small in comparison to the risks of damage from oil spillage within Puget Sound from marine transport, the potential for adverse effects to aquatic life is still high. VIII-164 Arthur D Little Inc, FIGURE VIII-50 CHERRY PT 2 ... BELLI HAM 3 4 MARCH.. PT 5 6 100 7 Fish hatchery 10 10 8 Rivers 1 Nooksack R. ........ 2 - Squalicum Cr. dl EVERE 3 - Whatcom Cr. 9 4 Samish R. 5 Skagit R. 6 - N. Fk. Stillaguamish R. 7 - S. Fk. Stillaguamish R. 8 Pilchuck R. 9 Skykomish R. 10 10 - Snoqualmie R. SEATTLE 11 - Cedar R. 12 Green R. SELLECK 0 10 20 Mi 12 km 0 10 20 30 SOURCES: NORTH TAC014A Bob Foster, Salmon Culturing ER_ E T T 9 SEA TT *L @Em; 1 @O SELLE r JK 12 Division, Washington Depart- ment of Fisheries; Office of Program Planning & Fiscal Management, State of Washing- ton Pocket Data Book 1976, VIII-165 Dec. 1976. The Puget Spur crosses a number of sensitive areas as described in Tables VIII-15 to VIII-19. Segment 2 (Laurel to Burlington Pump Station) crosses Edison Slough, an estuary open to Puget Sound, and two freshwater marshes. Nearly two miles of the route runs through Olympia Marsh, and the small (11-acre) Upland State Animal Habitat is also intersected by the proposed corridor. Segment 3 crosses three sloughs on Padilla Bay (totaling 700 feet of pipe) and the Swinomish Channel. Segment 5 (east of Everett to Monroe) intersects the marsh of Richardson Creek for a length of 500-feet. Segment 6 (Monroe to Selleck) is proposed to cross five different wetlands for a total length of 4400 feet, as well as 1900 feet of Rutherford Slough, a freshwater slough off the Snoqualmie River. Construction through wetlands is difficult, so that only about one-tenth mile of pipe may be completed in a day, and the direct construction dis- turbance of vegetation and wildlife will persist for as long as about three weeks where extensive crossing lengths are involved (e.g., Olympia Marsh). Construction through brackish water sloughs will temporarily destroy an area of the bottom which contains the eggs, larvae, and juvenile forms of shellfish and finfish, and provides a feeding area for the young of salmon and other anadromous forms. Depending upon the season of dis- turbance, the preexisting bottom conditions which can be reestablished by backfilling, as well as by natural sediment transport in the channel, may not occur for at least a year. Likewise, the bottom fauna will not repopulate for this length of time. The western slopes of the Cascades and the lowlands to the west which adjoin Puget Sound are rich in wildlife, including a relatively large number of forms which are either endangered, threatened, or potentially threatened. The golden eagle is known to winter in the upper Skagit River.area. This species, recognized as threatened in Washington, prefers arid plateaus with canyons and breeds in the eastern portion of the state only. The endangered peregrine falcon is found in the lowlands west of the Cascades. The nationally endangered trumpeter swan is potentially threatened within Washington, and is known to winter in the Skagit area. The endangered California condor, which formerly occurred on the east and west slopes of the Cascade Range, may still occur there but is so rare that it may already be totally extinct in Washington. Two potentially threatened birds known from the area of the Puget Spur are the osprey and the spotted owl. The former occurs in the vicinity of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs in the Snoqualmie National Forest, in Skagit County, and along theSnohbmish River, among other locations in the state. This species is facing increasing depletion from the pesticide contamination of its fish food resources but still breeds in the state where it can establish nest sites inaccessible to man or predators. The latter species is declining mostly by virtue of habitat losses -- removal of old growth timber and physical disturbance due to recreation and construction activi- ties in its coniferous forest habitat. The type of activities contemplated for the pipeline are in the same class as those which have contributed to the presently observed depleted state of these species. While the construction and presence of the pipeline VIII-166 Arthur D Little Inc corridor per se could never be blamed for extinction of any of these species in Washington, it would definitely affect their further decline, contrary to stated management policies designed to aid recovery of these populations. Since the habitat-removal aspects of the corridor are intrin- sic to the project, they are not easily mitigated. f. Trans Mountain Link (1) Land Use Impacts. New construction would be required on the Trans Mountain Link only in Scenario III, transshipment at Cherry Point, with some form of Trans Mountain reversal. This would comprise either the Atlantic Richfield Company "yo-yo", which would require construction of several new pump stations along this link, or a Trans Mountain loop which would require construction of a new 30-inch pipeline parallel to the existing line (1985). New construction along the right-of-way of the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline will widen the present corridor, which will disturb several miles of forest, riparian, agricultural and urban lands, as given in Table VIII-33. Only one town, Nooksack, is intersected by this link. The most significant land use affected by construction is agriculture, where 70-80 acres will be cleared, but these lands may be returned to cultivation at least by the following year. Forty to fifty acres of forest lands will be permanently removed (see Table VIII-34). The figures given in the table overestimate the acreages affected by a 30-inch line slightly, since the table gives the prototypical acreage cleared by the 100-foot corridor required for a 40-42-inch pipe. Sixteen transportation corridors will require temporary closure or rerouting as a result of pipeline cons- truction, but none of the roads affected on this link is a major state or interstate highway. The new pump station facilities would have minor land use impact s since the new facilities could possibly be constructed within the compound of the existing pump stations at Sumas and Laurel, or might require an additional acre or two of land immediately adjacent to these stations. The one entirely new station required would be the initial one at Cherry Point; the impacts of this are considered as part of the Land Use impacts at Cherry Point discussed in Chapter VII. The existing Trans Mountain Pipeline crosses the Nooksack River, and the additional crossing of the river by a second, parallel pipeline would increase the risk of possible future breakage due to accident or mechani- cal failure and subsequent oil escape. The Nooksack River provides a major source of the public water supply for the cities of Bellingham and Ferndale. The Bellingham supply is withdrawn at Lake Whatcom, where the Nooksack River water enters through a diversion tunnel. If oil released upstream entered Lake Whatcom before it could be contained, the water supply could be contaminated for several days to several weeks,, although supplementary sand filtration and chlorination at the filtration plant would remove much of the oil. After such an episode of heavy oil pollution, the water supply source would probably require special monitoring for at least a year. VIII-167 Arthur D Littk Inc (2) Terrestrial Biology Impacts. As described under Land Use, the only scenario significantly affecting the Trans Mountain Link is III-B. The loop reversal in this scenario, scheduled for 1985, would require construction of a new 30-inch line in the existing Trans Mountain Pipeline right-of-way. Several miles of forest land and about a mile of riparian zones would be permanently affected by the corridor widening under this scenario, totaling about 50 and 10 acres, respectively. The nature of the impacts on,these natural communities is discussed. in detail in Chapter VI. Seven stream crossings are involved, the most important of which is the Nooksack River. An additional crossing of this river by a second pipeline increases the risk of a possible future breakage and oil release to these waters. The Nooksack River supports a salmon hatchery in its upper reaches. Although the pipeline crosses downstream of the hatcheries, there is the small chance that a particular age class of young fish could be destroyed if a spill occurred when these were migrating through the lower reaches of the river. Endangered, threatened, or potentially threatened species known to occur in the general vicinity of the Trans Mountain Link include the spotted. owl, pileated woodpecker, northern bald eagle, and peregrine falcon. Very little forest and riparian land is affected by this link, but such is one more small increment of habitat reduction which is in part responsible for the present depleted state of these species. VIII-168 Arthur D Little Im IX. LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITY ZONES ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING AND IMPACT Continuing development of Alaskan petroleum reserves will result in a continuing reliance on the State of Washington as a source of logistic support. Three basic activities raise a potential concern for environ- mental impact. These are: 1. The fabrication of large pieces of equipment for the Alaskan development, 2. Transportation of large volumes of bulk materials and supplies by water, and 3. Transportation of supplies and personnel by air. The three activities are identified with three independent zones of logistic support -- air supply will depend entirely on the Seattle- Tacoma Airport, the predominant barge traffic will flow from there and out of the Port of Tacoma, and a recent proposal for offshore drilling platform fabrication has been made for Everett. Equipment fabrication is also possible at other locations, but those are not included within the scope of this study. The storage, repair, and disposal of the equipment used in the con- struction of the Trans Alaska Pipeline system will not be conducted within Washington's coastal zone. The equipment, however, will move by barge through Seattle and by rail across the Cascades to eastern Washington, where it will be stored at an abandoned Air Force base at Moses Lake. The effects of that storage will not be considered in this study; the movement of those goods is included under the consideration of total tonnage transported. Similarly, the provision of manpower to the State of Alaska will not be considered to have a direct environmental impact other than its requirements for transportation. A. PORT OF SEATTLE AND SEA-TAC AIRPORT - TRANSPORTATION In terms of both air and ocean movement, Seattle comprises the most attractive port of the region. The activity of the Trans Alaska Pipeline system and the development of several Alaskan petroleum regions has been largely supported by the movement of goods and personnel through the Seattle area. The forecast for equipment transshipment anticipated as part of a natural gas pipeline or continuing Outer Continental Shelf petroleum development are given in Chapter IV. Considered together, several of these projects may significantly overlap and result in a demand for transportation through the Seattle area than is greater than anything experienced due to the Trans Alaska Pipeline system itself. Although a level of activity cannot be considered minor, the physical capacity of the Port of Seattle and the Sea-Tac Airport to handle a volume of goods and personnel appropriate to that port's share of the total transportation .0 Arthur D Little, Inc IX-1 requirement is probably adequate. No major proposals to provide new facilities or significant expansions of existing facilities have been identified that can be related exactly to the portent of continuing or increasing Alaskan logistic support. Such facilities as may be required would be relatively inexpensive, such as semi-temporary structures that could be used to protect equipment and supplies from inclement weather. There is sufficient space in the airport vicinity for a modest amount of such new construction. There is limited space only at the Port of Seattle itself. New berth con- struction at the port is probably netierh necessary nor easily accom- plished. The Port of Seattle is a major West Coast port. It has undergone substantial development in the past in order to serve general commodity movement and particularly to serve such speciality markets as forest products and earlier phases of Alaskan logistic support. The inner waterfront area at Seattle, the Duwamish River area, is probably fixed over the near and intermediate term without major capital expenditure. The activity for logistic support will entail continued large move- ments of freight and continued air movements of freight and passengers. Such activities generate a proportion of the urban pollution load that affects both water and air. The magnitude of the impact cannot be readily calculated since the exact proportionality cannot be determined. It appears that the principal level of logistic support in the future will serve to replace a level of activity established over the past.decade which has declined due to changes in the foreign market for forest products and the completion of the Trans Alaska Pipeline system. The analysis of continuing Alaskan development indicates a significant phase shift between peaks of hypothetical construction demand. Displacement of the peaks by two to four years will have a major beneficial effect on both the economy and the environment of the State of Washington. It is likely that most of the logistic support efforts that would be directed through the Port of Seattle can be sustained-, if the Alaskan development follows a course as described in Chapter IV, without a significant in- crease in either new construction or in operation. In this sense, the environmental impact of logistic support is essentially the environmental impact of continuing a sector of the state's economy that has already become established. B. PORT OF EVERETT - DRILLING PLATFORM FABRICATION To date the only concrete proposal for major Alaskan petroleum development equipment fabrication is the proposal by Kaiser Engineers to fabricate offshore drilling rigs at a site to be created within the Port of Everett. The site requires approximately 2,150,000 cubic yards of sand and silt to be dredged from the channel adjoining the presently little used portion of the harbor, and deposited as hydraulic fill over approximately 53 acres of tidal flats which lie along the east side of the river. The dredging and filling proposal was originally initiated in 1971 in order to provide space for a wood chip handling facility at a time when the forest products industry exports to Japan were at their IX-2 Arthur D Little Inc 04 peak. An environmental impact statement was prepared according to state - law, but a permit for dredging and filling filed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers was delayed to opposition by the U.S. Fish and Wild- life Service to filling the tidal mud flats on the Snohomish River. Sub- sequent to.an involved process of permit application and modification the interest in development a wood chip handling facility on that site dwindled. At present, the Port of Everett has a series of permits which essentially allow the originally proposed use. They have been approached by Kaiser Engineers and a proposal to modify the original intended use was prepared. A draft environmental impact statement (January 1977) and a final environmental impact statement (February 1977) have been prepared providing some documentation of the Kaiser proposal. The following discussion is largely based on those two documents. The existing conditions at the Port of Everett in the vicinity of the proposed drilling rig fabrication site are characterized by a long history of fairly intensive water-oriented industrial use. A ship channel with maneuvering basins has been maintained in that area for many years. The principal industry has been forest products which, with associated log handling wastes, has resulted in an apparently significant impact on the water quality of the harbor area and on its marine life. Platform fabrication entails transportation of large quantitites of steel and other materials, extensive electric arc welding, launching, and floating the completed tower in the adjoining waterway and towing to its site of erection. The site is adequate for simultaneous construction of two towers. Net production may amount to some two to six towers per year, but at present no contracts have been used by Kaiser engineers to estimate the actual level of activity. One major project component is the relatively large amount of labor required depending on the rate of construction. The platform fabrication site could draw between 250 and 600 workers. 1. Terrestrial Biology The area immediate intended for disturbance in order to accommodate the Kaiser platform fabrication project has long been subject to industrial use. The flora and fauna associated with the site are unlikely to be rare or unusually valuable in a regional setting. Indeed, the land area affected is relatively small. Whatever incidental flora and fauna are on the site at present will be destroyed in the course of project construction. Because existing plant and wildlife are not particularly rare or valuable in this region, the habitat destruction is probably insignificant. 2. Air Quality Air quality at Everett reflects its moderately large urban character and its location along the developed corridor, east of Puget Sound. Particulates are moderate with no violations of the state standard for IX-3 Arthur D Little, Inc annual geometric mean. Sulfur dioxide is,moderate on the whole with an annual average of one part per hundred million (pphm) and a 24-hour maximum of 8 pphm, below the state standard of 10 pphm. In 1975, how- wever, there were five one-hour averages in excess of the state standard of 40 pphm. This is the greatest number of violations occurring in that year for any location monitored by the state. Neither ozone nor carbon monoxide are monitored at Everett. Extensive arc welding will generate some smoke, fumes, nitrogen oxide, and ozone emissions. No method is available to directly calculate the pollution potential, although it is expected that impact would be small by comparison with the majority of the surrounding industrial activities. Indeed, the principal emission source would be transportation of raw materials to the site and particularly transportation associated with the labor force commuting to the site from remote residences. Since many of the employees will be local, the project does not represent a major impact which could have associated with it a significant net increase in vehicular emissions. 3. Water Quality/Marine Biology The Port of Everett, located at the mouth of the Snohomish River on an innerchannel of Puget Sound, has been the site of port-related in- dustrial development which has had a significant impact on water quality. Several major dischargers, particularly sulfite pulp mills operated by Scott Paper and Weyerhaeuser, contribute to degradation that has led to a designation of "fair to good" for the immediate vicinity of the port and the mouth of the Snohomish River. The adjoining waters of Puget Sound are classified as excellent, but that classification must be com- pared.against the rating "extraordinary" which characterizes the vast majority of the waters in Puget Sound. Despite the poorer than average water quality, the waters immediately adjoining the Port of Everett are valuable waterfowl areas with eelgrass beds in the sandy substrate at the mouth of the Snohomish River. There is also significant commercial bottom fishing and sports salmon fishing near the port. Crab are found in the waters of the Sound nearby. The diversity and value of the marine resource, however, cannot escape damage from the large degree of industrial activity here. The phenomenon of rapid degeneration of benthic habitat from a thick blanket of waterlogged bark and wood debris has been a significant environmental issue at many locations. Even after cessation of log rafting in the area, the heavy organic content of the bottom sediments represents a biochemical and chemical oxygen demand which will render the sediments anaerobic for many years to come. The prolonged oxygen depriva- tion leads many marine sediments to become highly toxic due to the presence of sulfide formed by microbial action on organic material, particularly in the presence of ferrous minerals. In the light of the history of prior disturbance, the claim in the Port of Everett draft environmental impact statement that the tidelands affected by the dredging project have little biological value is probably valid. Similarly, the potential for reclamation of those tidelands is small over the short term without a deliberate effort to remove the persistent load of wood waste. fX-4 Arthur D Li ttle- Inc, Very little wastewater will be generated by the platform fabrication process. Domestic waste will be contained within a sanitary sewer system, and the only discharge to surrounding waters will comprise storm water runoff which will become contaminated with oil, miscellaneous chemicals, and the industrial litter that will be found on such a site. A minimal amount of barge traffic will be required for supply and the actual de- parture of a platform will require tow vessels and some substantial maneuvering in the narrow channel between the bulkhead line and the breakwater to the west. Overall, however, the anticipated water quality impacts are likely to be minimal compared with the impact of adjoining forest product industries. As no significant water quality impact can be identified, it is un- likely that there will be any further adverse effects on the marine resources of the area from toxic discharge. One factor is the dredging and fill of 53 acres of tidal flats. As noted earlier, the subtidal area is degraded below expected quality due to the large quantity of bark waste and miscellaneous industrial sediments that have accumulated there over the years. The filling then will probably have little direct ad- verse impact on existing conditions. It will, however, represent a distinct foreclosure of the option or opportunity for that tidal flat to regain its earlier role in the regional ecology of the Snohomish estuary. Such foreclosure would be a part of any project requiring subtidal fill and is not necessarily a direct effect of logistic support activities in general. The principal reason why the Kaiser project is located at Everett on landfill is that the Port of Everett has planned such an expansion in the past and received permits which it desires to implement. Intensification of use in an already industrialized zone minimizes disturbance elsewhere and in some degree offsets any foreclosure of the subtidal filling. C. PORT OF TACOMA - TRANSPORTATION Tacoma will share the volume of water shipment for logistic support with the Port of Seattle. Tacoma has developed a series of major water- front industries which have made heavy use of the deepwater channels lead- ing to this southern portion of Puget Sound. Although the early role of port was directed toward Puget Sound. Although the early role of the port was directed toward Puget Sound and northwest trade, recent years have seen the development of major barge marshaling activities that support major cargo movement to Alaska. It is expected that a large proportion of continuing logistic support will flow through the Port of Tacoma. No specific information regarding contracts or quantity of freight shipped are available. Neither is there any concrete indication of plans for the expansion specifically oriented toward continuing or increasing Alaskan trade. It is felt, however, that the Port of Tacoma offers a somewhat greater opportunity for expansion than does the Port of Seattle and that such growth of large facilities as may occur in Puget Sound due to peak demands for Alaskan trade will occur in this vicinity. .0 IX-5 Arthur D Little, Inc. In orde-r to obtain an indication of the environmental effects, the Port of Tacoma was queried regarding expansion projects that would serve barge trade. Although no projects are specifically associated with those major tug and barge companies, the port supplied a draft environmental impact statement for an industrial yard landfill that the consultant feels is typical of the degree of activity or new construction that may be encountered in future years. The Port of Tacoma is located at the estuary of the Puyallup River. The broad plain of alluvial deposits has been dissected with channels dredged and diked that increase the waterfront area of the port. This activity continues and the past decade has seen extension inland of the Blair Waterway by nearly one mile and enlargement of the Hylebos Water- way at its base near the heights of northeast Tacoma. There is still area into which waterway extension can proceed in order to create further water frontage, but this can occur only at the expense of flat back-up land which is always at a premium in a freight transshipment operation. Extension of the spits of flat land into Commencement Bay is limited by the abrupt bottom contour transition formed by the boundary between the edge of the alluvial plain and the deep water of the glaciated fjord-. There are several areas, however, which can be increased by amounts of a rew acres. One of these is an area adjoining the Blair Waterway at the site of some abandoned ship ways. It is this location that the Port of Tacoma has proposed to fill. .The fill technique entails clamshell dredging and rock placement to form a dike around a six-acre portion of tital and subtitle lands. The area within will be filled with material of a terrestrial origin imported to the site. 1. Terrestrial Biology The history of industrial activity and the major changes in the estuary land form of the Puyallup River have already eroded its original value as a habitat for terrestrial and water-oriented wildlife. Pockets of original flatland vegetation are rare and reflect their recent history of disturbance. Considering the small amount of land that would be affected, terrestrial biological impacts are probably minor. 2. Air Quality The existing air quality at Tacoma is moderately good, and similar to that of the other urban locations along Puget Sound. Its position at the southern portion of the Sound has lent the only significant ozone problem for this region of the state. Sulfur oxides are.high at certain locations, indicating the principal contributors are stationary point sources. Particulates have fluctuated below the standard of 60 micrograms per cubic meter annual geometric mean. Construction of new sites for barge traffic will entail primarily only short-term impacts on air quality due to the fugitive dust from such land fill operations. Operating impacts are expected to be relatively IX-6 Arthur D Little, Inc minor since the number of vessels required to tow a string of barges is only on the order of a few per week. Apart from land transportation emissions, such as truck and rail, the freight marshaling activity will have few air emissions. 3. Water Quality/Marine Biology Present water quality of Commencement Bay is rated as "good" -- the third lowest of the categories established by the State Department of Natural Resources and the Department of Ecology. Much of the degrada- tion is due to the long history of log rafting along the northern shore of Commencement Bay. Bark wastes and miscellaneous industrial wastes have contaminated the blind sloughs created by the industrial waterways such that bottom conditions in most have become anaerobic and the species present no longer represent the full range of marine organisms which could be found in this portion of Puget Sound. Needless to say, the in- tensive use of the'Puyallup Estuary has destroyed most of its original value as a habitat for marine organisms. Despite this, however, some commercial and much sports fishing is practiced in the vicinity. The species sought are those that may be found at many other locations in Puget Sound. The freight marshaling and barge transportation activities them- selves represent a continuation of a form of disturbance which has been common for decades at this location. Few discharges, if any, are expected from that activity. If construction of new waterfrontage is required to handle an increased barge traffic, the effects on water quality will be primarily brief periods of high turbidity from the resuspension of bottom sediments. Some may contain quantities of toxic industrial materials, but the primary expected impact would be from temporary oxygen depletion in a small portion of Commencement Bay. The turbidity resulting is probably minor compared to the turbidity due to seasonally river-borne sediments. The area of land fill possibly remaining in the Port of Tacoma is a few tens of acres at most without entailing large engineering costs. Since the quality of that habitat has already been affected by industrial use,. it cannot be considered a prime marine resource. The orginal area of tidal. and shallow subtidal lands that was originally present in this area has been reduced already to a fraction of its original extent. The conversion of any of the remaining shallow subtidal lands represents a significant impact upon the remaining fraction thereby foreclosing its potential for reestablishment of a more healthy community of marine organisms. Practically speaking, as long as port activity continues, such reestablishment is foreclosed. Considering sustenance of a major segment of the region's economy, this represents an advantageous trade off between concentration of environmental impact at one location with a diffused impact of development of various smaller pockets of flat shoreline that dot the shore of Puget Sound. IX-7 Arthur D Little, Inc. X. THE EXISTING ECONOMIC SETTING A. INTRODUCTION The impacts of petroleum-related activities in Alaska on the State of Washington will not be evenly distributed across all areas. Rather, they will concentrate in two groups of coastal counties: those which provide logistic support services to the oil and gas industries, and those which are impacted by petroleum flows from Alaska. In the first group are the counties of King, Pierce, and Snohomish, and the three major cities of Seattle, Tacoma, and Everett. In the second group lie the counties of Clallam, Skagit, and Whatcom, and the major municipalities of Port Angeles, Anacortes and Bellingham; these cities are significantly smaller than the major cities in the three counties which will provide logistic support. The purpose of this chapter is to provide the following background economic data: the current population of each county, distribution of employment, tax receipts, and historical levels of waterborne and airborne trade between Washington and Alaska. All of the information will be used as a reference point for discussion, in Chapter XI, of the economic impacts of continued oil-related trade between Alaska and Washington. B. POPULATION The population of the six-county region is shown in Table III-C. By far the largest county of the six is King, with a 1976 population of approximately 1,155,000. King County, however, was the only county of the six to actually lose population between 1970 and 1976, incurring a decline of roughly 3700. The greatest population increase in absolute numbers was in Pierce County, from 412,000 in 1970 to approximately 421,000 in 1976. In Whatcom County the population increased by about 8000 to 90,000 in 1976. In percentage terms, the fastest growing county has been Clallam, whose 1976 population of 39,800 represented a 14.5% increase from the 1970 figure. The three central Puget Sound counties -- King, Pierce, and Snohomish -- all experienced net out-migration during the six-year period; in King County the total was approximately 34,700. Whatcom County experienced the greatest in-migration -- 5277. In all of the counties there was a natural increase in population, ranging from 1226 in Clallam County to 31,022 in King County. C. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Table X-1 shows covered employment by major activity for each of the six counties in 1975. King County had almost 70% of the total employment in the six-county region. X-1 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-1 COVERED EMPLOYMENT 1975 AVERAGE Clallam King Pierce Skagit Snohomish Whatcom Construction 607 20,482 5,605 940 3,508 1,813 Manufacturing 3,498 103,272 20,431 4,212 20,589 6,421 Transportation and Public Utilities 558 33,064 4,377 796 3,116 1,677 Wholesale Trade 237 39,330 5,683 677 2,031 1,043 Retail Trade 2,384 80,984 21,547 3,332 11,852 5,937 Financial, Insurance, and Real Estate 387 36,664 5,471 515 2,075 1,058 Services 1,763 86,015 19,590 1,909 8,701 4,540 Other 1,640 43,934 14,522 1,300 _4)489 2P829 Total 11,074 443,745 97@226 13,681 56,361 25,318 Source: Washington Pocket Data Book 1976. X-2 Arthur D Little, Inc. Almost 25% of total employment in King County is in manufacturing. In Snohomish County, roughly two of every five covered employees work in manufacturing firms. King County is clearly the center of finance and insurance activities in Washington: one out of every 12 employees in the county is employed in finance, insurance, and real estate. In the other five counties, only one employee of every 21 is employed in similar activities. King County is also the center for wholesaling activities: while only 68% of all employees work in King County, more than 80% of those engaged in wholesale trade are employed there. Similarly, more than 75% of all persons employed in transportation and utility activities work in King County. Therefore, most of the efforts in logistic support of oil and gas development in Washington will logically be located in King County. Wage levels for covered employees are also significantly higher in King County than in the other five counties (see Table X-2). The average wage in King County was $11,577 in 1975, compared with $10,796 for Snohomish and $9,507 for Clallam County. Employees in King County are paid higher wages for every type of employment, with the greatest differentials achieved in the transportation and public utilities services, and fi- nance, insurance, and real estate sectors. Clallam County generally has the lowest wages of the six counties. Service employees in Clallam receive an annual wage of only $5,337; the comparable wage in King County is $8,800. Table X-2 makes clear the wide income disparities among the counties. How- ever, these disparities are in part compensated for by different costs of living: for example, housing prices in the less-developed counties are significantly lower than those in the three central Puget Sound counties. D. TAX REVENUES A significant percentage of the revenues to local governments including cities, towns, and counties -- comes from state-distributed taxes. Receipts from the three tax services, as shown in Table X-3, represent the majority of state-distributed tax revenues. Other sources of state- distributed revenue, including forest excise taxes, motor vehicle excise taxes, liquor profits, and overload fines, are insignificant in comparison. By far the largest recipient of these tax revenues is King County, which received approximately $43 million in 1975. Clallam County, with the smallest population of the six counties, received approximately $1.7 million during the same year. The largest single producer of revenue is the local sales and use tax; this generated 65% of total revenues from the three sources. Until 1970 all sales and use tax proceeds had gone to the state's gen- eral fund. In that year, the legislature allowed local governments to levy a 0.5% tax to be collected by the state and redistributed to local governments. The state charges an administration fee of 1.5% of all revenues received. Of the remainder, counties receive 100% of the amount collected in unincorporated areas and 15% of the amount collected within incorporated areas, while cities and towns receive 85% of the amount collected within X-3 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-2 AVERAGE WAGES FOR COVERED EMPLOYEES 1975 Clallam King Pierce Skagit Snohomish Whatcom Construction $11,690 $15,270 $13,479 $14,245 $12,956 $13,002 Manufacturing 12,858 14,512 13,111 12,655 13,716 13,281 Transportation and Public Utilities 11,461 15,053 12,564 11,481 11,664 12,394 Wholesale Trade 11,726 13,774 12,787 10,736 12,084 9,995 Retail Trade 6,426 7,464 6,908 6,045 7,006 6,080 Finance) Insurance, and Real Estate 7,904 10,097 9,075 8,357 8,489 8,510 Services 5,337 8,799 7,453 6,300 7,636 6,544 Other 9,909 12,631 11,264 10,752 11,735 12,304 Average 9,507 11,577 10,071 9,762 10,796 9,859 Source: Washington Pocket Data Book - 1976. X-4 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE X-3 DISTRIBUTED STATE TAXES - 1975* (thousands of 1975 dollars) Clallam LiER Pierce Skagit Snohomish Whatcom Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax** $669.2 $12,699.7 $4,943.5 $1,017.9 $3,443.0 $1,261.6 Local Sales and Use Tax 950.5 27,853.8 7,595.5 1,197.7 4,447.8 2,030.2 Liquor Sales 67.9 2,286.5 719.6 94.9 480.3 162.8 *Taxes collected by state and returned to cities, towns, and counties. **Includes both 15o, motor fuel tax and 6-7/8(,' motor fuel tax. Source: Washington Pocket Data Book - 1976. X-5 Arthur D Little Inc their boundaries. The use of the funds is unrestricted. In 1971 the legis- lature authorized King County to levy an additional 0.3% tax, upon approval of the electorate, to be used for supporting public mass transit. In 1974 the legislature extended this tax to any county where the voters approved the tax, but only Grays Harbor County has adopted the tax. The state motor vehicle fuels tax of $0.09 per gallon; approximately $0.04125 is shared with local governments through the Urban Arterial Trust account and the general highway funds of local governments. The remaining monies are used by the state for highway purposes, although some funds are used to defray the expenses of the Puget Sound Ferry System. Liquor tax receipts are distributed between the state and local goven- ments. Monies allocated for local governments are distributed on the basis of population. In addition, some funds are reserved for University medical research and for alcoholic rehabilitation programs. Our,impact model (described in Appendix C) estimates motor vehicle fuel taxes, sales and use taxes, and liquor taxes. The results of the model can be compared to the existing levels of revenue in each of the counties to determine the importance of marginal oil-related revenues. The other major source of revenue for local.governments in Washington is the property tax. Table X-4 shows expected 1976 property tax collections and tax receipts per capita for the six counties. Whatcom County had the highest per capita tax receipts -- $284; the lowest per capita payments $188 -- were in Clallam County. King County generates almost a quarter of a billion dollars of revenue annually in property tax collection, compared with only $7.5 million for Clallam County. The three central Puget Sound counties generally have lower per capita tax burdens than the three outlying counties, even though personal incomes in the central Puget Sound counties are significantly higher. This is largely accounted for by the greater per-person land ownership in the outlying counties. In all of the counties, property tax receipts are significantly greater than the receipts from distributed revenues. For instance, in Pierce County, revenues from distributed state taxes equal $13.3 million, whereas property tax receipts exceed $80 million. More than one-fifth of this latter amount is required by the state school tax levy. E. TRADE BETWEEN ALASKA AND WASHINGTON The economic impact of oil development activities in Alaska on the State of Washington will be felt in the form of trade through logistical supports and through petroleum flows. These activities will stimulate Washington's economy and create jobs and tax revenues and increase the demand for land, infrastructure,, and other scarce resources. Historical petroleum flows into Washington were dis- cussed in Chapters I-IV. The following discussion deals with historical flow's of equipment and supplies from Washington to Alaska. 1. Waterborne Commerce The Port of Seattle's maritime trade with Alaska has increased dramatically in recent years (see Table X-5). In 1967 almost one million short tons of trade with Alaska moved through the Port of Seattle; by 1976 this figure had increased to slightly more than two million short tons. Arthur D Little- Inc. x-6 TABLE X-4 PROPERTY TAX COLLECTIONS - 1976 (thousands of dollars) Property Tax Tax Receipts County Revenues Per Capita Clallam $ 7,496.2 $188 King 247,278.3 214 Pierce 80,033.9 190 Skagit 14,742.4 273 Snohomish 47,222.8 175 Whatcom 25,529.8 284 The State 727,430.1 204 Source: Washington Pocket Data Book - 1976. X-7 .4 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-5 SEATTLE WATERBORNE TRADE WITH ALASKA Year Receipts Shipments Total Receipts Shipments (thousand (thousand (thousand (as % (as % short tons) short tons) short tons) of total) of total) 1950 124.5 468.2 592.7 21 79 1951 121.0 531.5 652.5 19 81 1952 131.8 432.3 564.1 23 77 1953 126.3 449.3 575.6 22 78 1954 86.8 491.9 578.7 15 85 1955 85.1 501.8 586.9 14 86 1956 87.7 575.4 663.1 13 87 1957 69.5 512.4 581.9 12 88 1958 72.7 549.2 621.9 12 88 1959 74.6 583.7 658.3 11 89 1960 71.0 618.3 689.3 10 90 1961 73.8 532.1 605.9 12 88 1962 69.5 528.5 598.0 12 88 1963 92.5 575.0 667.5 14 86 1964 109.7 715.9 825.6 13 87 1965 144.1 801.6 945.7 15 85 1966 162.7 775.0 937.7 17 83 1967 163.2 801.5 964.7 17 83 1968 164.1 810.0 974.1 17 83 1969 166.6 964.4 1,131.0 15 85 1970 162.6 715.7 878.3 19 81 1971 224.7 832.2 1,056.9 21 79 1972 168.7 1,054.8 1,223.5 14 86 1973 406.4 964.3 1,370.7 30 70 1974 312.9 1,495.9 1,808.8 17 83 1975 291.1 1,728.0 2,019.1 14 86 Source: U.S. Department of Army Corps of Engineers. X-8 Arthur D little Inc The vast majority of this growth occurred in shipments to Alaska. Between 1967 and 1975 receipts from Alaska increased by only 128,000 short tons, while outbound shipments increased by more than 900,000 short tons. Of this total trade, the allocation between receipts and shipments has remained roughly steady, with shipments equaling between 80% and 85% of the total, and receipts at between 15% and 20% of the total. Prior to the discovery of oil in Alaska and the resulting increase in explor- ation and population growth, total trade between Seattle and Alaska had remained steady between 1950 and 1962 at approximately 600,000 tons annually. However, in that year trade began to increase and reached the one million ton mark in 1969. The impact of the construction of the Aleyska pipeline on trade between the two states is clearly demonstrated in Table X-6. In 1975, seven of the ten most heavily shipped commodities between Seattle and Alaska were classifications in which the percentage of shipments related to pipeline and other oil development activities can be expected to be large. The fact that the Aleyska pipeline accounted for much of these shipments can be seen in the dramatic increase in the total volume of shipments. For instance, the most heavily shipped product -- miscellaneous food products -- increased from 127,000 short tons in 1973 to almost 178,000 short tons in 1975, or by approximately 39%. However, during that same period, shipments of non-electrical machinery increased from approximately 22,000 short tons to almost 107,000 short tons, an increase of more than 400%. Similar increases can be seen in building cement, which increased from about 29,000 short tons to 117,000 short tons. Rapid increases were experienced in other commodities, such as iron and steel pipe, fabricated metal products, and miscellaneous manufactured products. In addition, the "commodities not elsewhere classified" category is also heavily composed of pipeline-oriented shipments. Many of the commod- ities in this category were rail boxcars shipped on the Hydro-Train. The operator was required only to give the total weight in the boxcars, not to indicate the commodities within. In addition, the sudden explosion in volume of these commodities in 1974 indicates that they were heavily oriented to the pipeline. Alaska also has been increasing in both relative and absolute importance as a trading partner for the Port of Seattle. In 1974 more than 50% of all westbound cargo from the Port of Seattle was destined for Alaska. The volume of more than 1.8 million short tons shipped between the Port and Alaska in 1974* compares favorably with the Port's commerce with its largest overseas trading partner, Japan, which amounted to 1.5 million short tons in that year. Of the tonnage carried between Seattle harbor and Alaska, approximately 450,000 tons were carried to southeast Alaska, 650,000 tons to Anchorage, an additional 550,000 tons to other ports, such as Seward, Whittier, Valdez, and Kodiak in central Alaska, and 150,000 short tons to other ports in the state. Port of Seattle, Department of Planning and Research. X-9 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE X-6 TEN MOST HEAVILY SHIPPED COMMODITIES - SEATTLE TO ALASKA* (short tons) Commodity 1973 1974 1975 Miscellaneous Food Products 127,287 149,001 177,762 Building Cement 28,996 93,113 117,006 Lumber 56,346 75,710 116,605 Machinery, except Electrical 21,775 84,674 106,908 Iron and Steel Pipe and Tube 28,259 34,121 88,770 Miscellaneous Non-metallic Mineral Products 28,226 47,662 87,651 Fabricated Metal Products 41,250 55,316 70,123 Miscellaneous Manufactured Products 39,404 509775 69,616 Alcoholic Beverages 51,382 58,664 68,907 Motor Vehicles, Parts, Equipment 339239 46,637 Total of 10 Commodities 456,164 695,673 954,982 Total Trade 964,318 1,495,922 1,728,088 *Commodities, not elsewhere classified, not included: 1973 volume, 152,596; 1974 volume, 339,727; 1975 volume, 218,993. Source: Research and Planning Department, Port of Seattle. X-10 Arthur D Little Inc As indicated previously, cargo movements from Alaska to Seattle are only about one-fifth of those in the reverse direction. Pulp is the cargo most heavily shipped to Seattle from Alaska, accounting for approximately 50% of the total tonnage volume of the top ten commodities and 40% of all shipments from Alaska to Seattle. The other major commodity shipped is fish and shellfish, both fresh and prepared. In recent years miscellaneous manufactured products have shown a dramatic increase, from approximately 2400 short tons in 1973 to approximately 18,800 tons in 1975. Petroleum movements are not shown in Table X-7 because no petroleum enters the Port of Seattle from Alaska. Compared to the Port of Seattle, the Ports of Tacoma and Everett have relatively little trade with Alaska. The Port of Everett estimates that to date virtually no Alaskan related trade has flowed through Port facilities. The Port of Everett serves largely as a bulk shipper of pulp and paper products to its principal trading partner, Japan. However, as is discussed in Chapter XI the Port may serve as a fabrication yard for drilling platforms to be used in Alaskan oil development. The Port of Tacoma has had some trade with Alaska. During the construc- tion of the Aleyska pipeline, equipment modules such as pumping stations were constructed at Tacoma facilities. It is estimated that in 1975 employ- ment at the Port for module construction was approximately 2800; however, this dropped to 1800 in 1976 and is currently at only 900 persons. If additional work from Alaska is not forthcoming in the near future, it is likely that the facility will be shut down. In recent months the Totem Ocean Trailer Express Company has moved its operations from the Port of Seattle to the Port of Tacoma. In any future Alaskan development T.O.T.E. can be expected to carry a large percentage of total waterborne cargos - meaning that the Port of Tacoma will grow in significance in terms of trade with Alaska. Table X-8 shows historical volume of trade between the Port of Tacoma and Alaskan ports. The majority of the tonnages listed were oil- related movements. Fifty-nine thousand short tons of the cargo moved in 1970 was pipe for the Aleyska pipeline which was brought to the Port of Tacoma from Japan and transferred to ocean going barges for subsequent transit to Alaska. The rapid increases in 1975 and 1976 were largely due to both the introduction of Crowley Tug and Barge and T.O.T.E. operations to the Port and also to the shipment of the equipment modules being constructed on Port land. It is likely that the Port will handle an increasing share of any future oil-related shipments to Alaska. 2. Airborne Cargo The Port of Seattle began to maintain records of airfreight movements between Seattle and Alaska only in 1975. However, the information shown in Table X-9 is indicative of the levels of airfreight movements that have occurred between Sea-Tac International Airport and Alaska. As is the case with waterborne shipments, shipments outbound from Seattle to Alaska account for the vast majority of total air shipments. Only during the fishing season, when operators desire to have fresh fish flown to Washington in the shortest possible time, do freight movements from Alaska to Seattle @ichieve any significance. X-11 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-7 TEN MOST HEAVILY SHIPPED COMMODITIES - ALASKA TO SEATTLE* (short tons) Commodity 1973 1974 1975 Pulp 224,455 161,821 120,176 Fish and Shellfish, Prepared 63,287 55,898 66,793 Miscellaneous Manufactured Products 2,393 15,970 18,753 Fresh Fish, except Shellfish 22,335 16,069 17,769 Shellfish, except Prepared 3,782 4,668 8,036 Non-metallic Minerals, Not Elsewhere Classified 0 3,885 5,405 Lumber 3,481 3,850 5,306 Machinery, except Electrical 4,424 4$045 4,904 Coal and Lignite 1,783 2,687 3,274 Motor Vehicles, Parts, Equipment 2SI896 13-252 2,993 Total of 10 Commodities 328P836 270,145 253,409 Total Trade 406,365 312,979 291,112 *Commodities, not elsewhere classified, not included: 1974 volume., 26,721; 1975 volume, 24,830. Source: Research and Planning Department, Port of Seattle. X-12 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-8 OIL AND CONSTRUCTION RELATED CARGOS FROM THE PORT OF TACOMA TO ALASKA (short tons) Year Amount 1967 3,372 1968 2,065 1969 1,043 1970 59,597* 1971 1,009 1972 1,673 1973 623 1974 3,544 1975 34,234 1976 36,030** *Includes 59,000 short tons of pipe which was shipped from Japan and transferred to barges. **First eight months of 1976. Source: Port of Tacoma. X-13 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE X-9 AIRFREIGHT MOVEMENTS TO ALASKA (short tons) Total Freight Year Quarter Moved Inbound Outbound 1975 1 8,708 628 8$080 2 10,731 1,077 9.654 3 13,375 2,672 10,703 4 10,231 923 9,308 1976 1 8,779 648 8,131 2 11,246 1,535 9.711 3 12,040 2,621 9,419 Total 75$110 10,104 65$006 Source: Planning and Research Department, Port of Seattle. X-14 Arthur D Li tifle- Inc During the seven quarters shown in Table X-9, slightly more than 75,000 short tons of airfreight moved between Seattle and Alaska, with more than 65,000 tons outbound from Seattle. The Port of Seattle does not keep records of the types of cargo moving by airfreight, but our interviews with the major airfreight operators at the Sea-Tac International Airport indicate that the vast majority of items moving in this way are perishable foodstuffs. Most of the remaining commodities tend to be of high value and are also relatively dense. Specific examples were given by airfreight operators of the commodities carried which were destined for the Aleyska pipeline. These included a planeload of ladders, welding rods, truck transmissions, pipe valves, and other equipment whose absence could seriously slow construction of the pipeline. According to the Port's Planning and Research Department, airfreight movements to Alaska account for approximately 40% of total airfreight movement to and from Sea-Tac International Airport. Air passenger move- ments to Alaska have also shown a dramatic increase paralleling the development of the Aleyska pipeline. As shown in Table X-10, approximately 400,000 persons flew between Sea-Tac International Airport and Alaska in 1967. By 1975 this traffic had increased to approximately 775,000 and, as a percentage of Sea-Tac's total traffic, had increased from 10.1% to approximately 12.7%. This traffic is generally allocated between four airlines: Western, Northwest, and Alaskan Airlines, which fly between Sea-Tac and Anchorage, and Pan American which, with Alaskan Airlines, flies between Sea-Tac and Fairbanks. In addition, other airlines service other locations in Alaska, including Juneau and Sitka. The regional breakdown of the 775,000 enplaned and deplaned passengers traveling between Sea-Tac and Alaska in 1975 indicates that approximately 432,000 traveled between Anchorage and Sea-Tac, 173,000 between Fairbanks and Sea-Tac, and the remaining 170,000 between southeastern Alaskan air- ports and Sea-Tac. X-15 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE X-10 SEA-TAC INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AIR PASSENGER TRAFFIC BETWEEN SEA-TAC AND ALASKA Number of Enplaned and Deplaned Passengers Percent of Total Year Total Sea-Tac Traffic 1957 171,470 12.17% 1958 168,230 11.72 1959 189,949 11.86 1960 196,343 12.00 1961 202,826 12.52 1962 219,430 10.96 1963 215,388 12.09 1964 2553,037 12.72 1965 285,655 12.21 1966 319,174 11.31 1967 390,049 10.12 1968 401,849 9.06 1969 430,600 8.96 1970 457,573 9.83 1971 468,944 9.86 1972 514,323 10.73 1973 524,366 10.07 1974 604,467 10.47 1975 775,544 12.68 Source: Planning and Research Department, Port of Seattle; Airport Management records. X-16 Arthur D Little Inc XI. ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT Ilk This chapter describes the economic impacts that can be expected in the State of Washington from the forecast levels of petroleum flow and logistic support activity. It first summarizes the findings and resulting conclusions of the economic analysis. The major finding is that all of the proposed transportation flow scenarios and the probable logistical support impacts will have only a minimal effect on the state's economy, although there will be relatively larger impacts on specific areas. The remainder of the chapter presents the detailed results of the analysis that led to the conclusions. First, for readers who may be unfamiliar with the theory of regional economic multiplier analysis, several reference sources are suggested which can explain the topic. Washington's special trading ties with Alaska, and the reason why any major development in Alaska will affect Washington, are next discussed, followed by a description of the types of economic impacts that will result from petroleum development and transshipment of crude through Washington. Here, drawing on the scenario definitions developed in previous chapters, we detail the final demand impacts, including spe- cific estimates of their magnitude and timing. Finally, the total multi- plier impacts are presented, along with tax revenues, population increases, and resultant land requirements. The specific methodology utilized in this impact assessment is dis- cussed in this chapter and detailed in Appendix C. Each scenario is analyzed in terms of its size and importance as compared with the sur- rounding local and regional economy. A. SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACTS Before estimates of the impacts are presented, it is useful to develop an understanding of which of the impacts will be new impacts on Washington and which will only replace activities which have already been occurring. In this report we will use the terms "net impacts" and 11gross impacts" to differentiate between new and replacement impacts. "Net impacts" will be used to refer to impacts projected to occur which have no counterpart in today's Washington economy. An example of such an impact would be the construction and operation of the proposed Northern Tier Pipeline project. "Gross impacts" will be used to refer to the com- bined total of both net impacts and replacement impacts. An example of a replacement impact is the cost of refining Alaskan crude oil in the four Puget Sound refineries. These refineries are currently using crude from Canada and other foreign sources. With the introduction of Alaskan crude, these refineries will not change their output nor will their impact on the local community alter significantly. Hence, no new or additional impacts will result from Alaskan crude. However, the use of Alaskan crude must be counted as part of a gross impact because the impact of the refineries at any point in time must be distributed among the crude sources in use at that time. XI-1 Arthur D Little- Inc As noted in Appendix C, logistical support impacts related to the development of the petroleum industry have already occurred in Washington during the construction of the Alyeska pipeline. However, we believe that the project logistical impacts must be considered as net impacts because they will be related to different projects and have not developed directly from previous activities. In Appendix C we have indicated which of the components of final demand are net impacts and which are replacement impacts. The tables presented in this chapter will present the gross impact of the transpor- tation scenarios and the difference in impacts between the net and gross scenarios will be discussed in the text. The indirect and induced impacts which flow from a new impact are considered to be net impacts while the indirect and induced impacts which flow from a replacement impact are considered to be gross impacts. Our analysis assessed five different petroleum transshipment sce- narios and two logistical support scenarios. The petroleum transshipment scenarios differed in both the amount of oil to be delivered to Washington, the type and location of facilities used to handle the oil, and the size of the tanker fleet used to bring the oil to Washington. The logistical support scenarios differed in their assumptions as to the number of Washington residents who would find employment in Alaska on oil-related jobs and the amount of their income that they would return to Washington. Table XI-1 lists both the high and low estimates of both gross employ- ment and tax impacts of the two logistical support scenarios, while Table XI-2 lists the highest and lowest estimate of gross employment and tax impacts of any oil transshipment scenario. From these two tables the following conclusions can be drawn: � The logistical support net impacts will be larger than the gross impacts of any of the possible oil. transship- ment scenarios except during the period when the North- ern Tier Pipeline is being constructed. � Both the logistical and transshipment impacts will have only a small influence on the total Washington economy and will not have a large impact even on the region in which they are located. � Because there is a high volume of business sales involved in the impacts in comparison to the amount of employment created or supported, the tax revenues flowing from the impacts will be sufficient to sup- port the probable level of public costs associated with the impacts. � The impacts of the oil transportation scenarios will peak early in the forecast period, during the time of facilities construction. After construction is completed, the impacts will remain stable for a long time. XI-2 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE XI-1 RANGE OF IMPACTS FOR LOGISTICAL SUPPORT ACTIVITIES* Logistical Support Activities Logistical Support Activities (high estimate) (low estimate) Employment Taxes Employment Taxes (person years) ($000s) (person years) ($000s) 1978 81 $ 139 81 $ 139 1979 1,663 1,866 1,663 13,866 1980 3,953 4,381 3,642 4@177 1981 5,474 5,564 4,551 4,962 1982 6,937 6,578 5,249 5,460 1983 83,148 7,440 5,787 5,873 1984 8,684 7,803 5,885 5,943 1985 9,106 8,109 5,990 6,038 1986** 5,734 3,841 3,600 2,422 1987** 2,880 1,929 1,798 1,210 1988** 1,366 915 846 569 *Net impacts. **Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. XI-3 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE XI-2 RANGE OF IMPACTS FOR PETROLEUM TRANSSHIPMENT SCENARIOS* Scenario II-A Scenario I Northern Tier Pipeline Status Quo without Puget Sound Spur Employment Taxes - Employment Taxes (person years) ($000s) (person years) ($000s) .1978 896 $1,144 3,732 $2,648 1979 1,133 1,300 5,024 3,546 1980 957 1,159 1,991 3,096 1981 971 1,180 2,750 2,985 1982 844 1,095 2,229 2,645 1983 777 1,049 1,816 2,376 1984 777 1,050 1,816 2,378 1985 777 1,050 1,816 2,379 1986** 427 328 1,045 848 1987** 213 163 521 422 1988** 99 76 243 196 *Gross impacts. **Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. XI-4 Arthur D Little- Inc 0 The logistical impacts will grow over time as there is an increase of oil-development activity in Alaska and as the construction of a proposed natural gas pipeline occurs. In Table XI-1 all of the impacts are net impacts. However, in Table XI-2 some of the impacts are related to the activities of the existing Puget Sound oil refineries. As a result, they are gross impacts and the net impacts of the petroleum scenarios are smaller than those shown in Table XI-2. In fact, net employment in Table XI-2 is about 680 person- years less than shown in Table XI-1. This makes the relative importance of the logistical impacts even larger than is evident solely from review- ing the two tables. The smallest oil transshipment impacts would occur if the status quo were maintained with the minimum number of changes. The only changes that would be necessary would be the construction of some improved tanker berth- ing facilities at refinery locations in Puget Sound and the use of tankers to bring oil to Washington from Alaska, rather than the existing pipeline system which has been bringing oil from Canada. Under this assumption, gross employment impacts would reach their peak in 1981 with only 971 people employed. Since many of these persons would owe their employment to the operation of the existing refineries, the number of net jobs created would be significantly less, about 305. Similarly, of the $1,180,000 in tax revenues generated during that year, only about $354,000 would be new revenues obtained from the tanker traffic and the construction of the improved landing sites.1 By comparison construction of the proposed Northern Tier Pipeline and associated impacts could create more than 5000 jobs during 1979. These jobs would be new since the Northern Tier Pipeline represents a new project. However, since there is a constant level of construction activity in the state and a high rate of unemployment among construction workers, it is probable only a small percentage of the con- struction work force would be in-migrants to Washington. 1. Taxes included in the estimate include the state sales tax, the busi- ness and occupation tax, the statewide property tax levied for school financing, the alcoholic beverage tax, the cigarette tax, and the motor vehicle fuel tax. The sales and business and occupation tax rates used were those actually paid by businesses as a percentage of total sales during the period October 1975 through March 1976. XI-5 Arthur D Little, Inc B. METHOD OF ANALYSIS In assessing the impact of Alaskan oil-related development on Washington we have employed traditional multi-regional input-output analysis. We suggest that the reader unfamiliar with this form of analysis consult some of the outstanding texts available on the topic.1 We have chosen to use multi-regional analysis rather than the simpler single-region analysis because it provides far more useful infor- mation as multi-regional analysis allows one to pinpoint more accurately exactly where the impacts of any project will occur. We have been for- tunate in being able to locate two multi-regional input-output tables for the State of Washington which provided regional definitions almost exactly equal to those we would have constructed had the resources been available to construct such tables especially for this study.2 A detailed description of the methodology we have employed is pro- vided in Appendix C, along with a brief description of the data sources used and the manner in which the components of the final demand estimates were derived. The reader interested in that level of detail should refer to the appendix. C. THE SPECIAL TIES BETWEEN WASHINGTON AND ALASKA One might ask why Washington will be significantly affected by any oil-related development in Alaska. The answer is relatively simple. For an analogy, one need only to review history -- the Alaskan gold rush of the 1800s. At that time Seattle grew very rapidly as it was the stepping stone from the lower 48 states to the Alaskan gold fields. Because Seattle was the westernmost port, it was the point at which traffic to Alaska changed from land-based transportation to water-based transportation. In other words, it was the point at which the mode of transportation changed. Washington, specifically Puget Sound, will play a similar role in the development of "black gold" in Alaska. First, Washington is the closest state to Alaska. Second, the mode of transportation of most goods bound for Alaska changes in Washington: goods that enter Washington on rail leave for Alaska on either truck, ship, or plane; 1. The following two texts provide excellent descriptions of multi-regional input-output analysis: Walter Isard, Methods of Regional Analysis: An Introduction to Regional Science, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, 1960; and William Miernyk, Regional Input-Output Analysis. 2. We wish to thank the Oceanographic Institute of Washington and Professor William Beyers of the University of Washington for providing the input- output tables that were used in this study. XI-6 Arthur D Little Inc. many goods that enter by truck leave by ship. In short, Washington is a marshaling point for goods movement to Alaska and a point at which the mode of transportation changes. Washington's position works well for it with respect to products shipped from Alaska to the continental states. Oil entering Washington via tanker is transferred to pipelines. Pulp products entering by ship are placed on railroads. Bulk shipments from Alaska bound for individual consumers in the continental states are routed to their ultimate desti- nation in Washington. Because of its small size and geographic and climatic constraints, Alaska produces few of the goods and services desired by its residents. Therefore, relative to the total size of the Alaskan economy, there is a large demand for imported goods and services. Even in the case of local manufacture, the production process has large leakages and must import services and materials. Again, Washington is in a position to serve as the collection and transshipment point in the continental United States. Because Washington's own manufacturing base is relatively small and highly specialized, it is likely that a great percentage of the goods currently moving through Washington to Alaska is in fact manufactured elsewhere. For instance, Washington has no facilities to manufacture oil pipeline, nor has it all of the facilities required to manufacture oil drilling equipment. Domestically, most of this manufacturing activ- ity is in the southern states where heretofore the majority of U.S. oil development has occurred. Because Alaska's total demand for manu- factured goods is still very small in comparison to the volume used elsewhere in the nation, it is unlikely that major manufacturers will locate in Washington solely to serve the Alaskan market. The cost of living in Alaska is higher than almost anywhere else in the nation. This is caused largely by Alaska's isolation from the rest of the United States and the high transportation charges associated with moving goods to the state. In addition, compared to many of the conti- nental states, the climate in Alaska is bleak during the long winter. Businesses therefore offer salary premiums to attract people to Alaska. A higher standard of living can be achieved by working in Alaska and earning Alaskan wages, but living in Washington and enjoying lower prices. Washington provides a more pleasant climate, is closer to other parts of the nation, and provides more of the amenities found in urbanized areas. Therefore, many people whose Alaskan jobs require long periods of working time and long periods of time off prefer to live in Washington. This arrangement is particularly well suited to many oil industry employees, who commonly work a seven-day week for a number of weeks followed by an equally long off-work period during which the employee can return home. As he returns, he brings back much of the income he has earned while in Alaska and thereby contributes, in the present case, to the economy of Washington. XI-7 Arthur D Little Inc Thus, Washington's future is interwoven to some degree with Alaska's future. The continuing development of the Alaskan economy will serve as a stimulus to the development of the Washington economy. The particular sectors in Washingtorn's economy which will be most heavily impacted are those involved in the transshipment and receipt of goods and materials to and from Alaska. Because of the small size of the economies of both states, it is unlikely that any major shift of manufacturing will occur in the near future. But because of Washington's unique position, it can be expected to remain one of the prime beneficiaries in the continental United States of future development in Alaska. D. DIRECT IMPACTS ON WASHINGTON OF ALASKAN PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION 1. General Description of Impacts In this analysis we have been asked to focus on only one segment of Alaskan development -- that related to petroleum resources. The connec- tions which have evolved and will continue to evolve between Washington and Alaska in this regard are similar to those described above. That is, Washington serves as a transshipment point for goods and services required by the developing petroleum industry in Alaska and will also serve as a receptacle for Alaskan crude oil. Our analysis concentrates on several specific impacts which this connection between Washington and Alaska will have on Washington. These impacts are: � Sales of firms in Washington � Employment created in Washington � Income to Washington � Taxes received by Washington � Population increase � Land consumption As indicated above, the primary source of impact of Alaskan develop- ment on Washington will be in the transportation sector. Therefore, we will consider sales of shipping lines to Alaska and airfreight movements to that state. Another primary impact will be the shipment of Alaskan crude oil to Washington for use both in Washington and for transshipment to other states. We will therefore discuss the economic impact of Alaskan related tanker travel in Washington waters and the induced sales in various sectors of the Washington economy. Transshipment of Alaskan oil eastward will also require the construc- tion of new pipeline systems. The construction impacts could be among the major impacts of oil development on Washington. Finally, a new era XI-8 Arthur D Little Inc. of offshore oil drilling has arrived in Alaska, requiring numerous off- shore drilling rigs. Because of Washington's proximity to Alaska and to the sources of the necessary materials and labor, some of the drilling platforms probably will be manufactured in Washington. Sales of firms in Washington are only important in that they create jobs for Washington residents. Therefore, our analysis estimates both the jobs created in the firms which will have direct relationships with petroleum activities in Alaska, and the jobs created in support industries in Washington. Washington currently has a high unemployment rate. The development of Alaskan trade serves to broaden the base of Washington economy and to provide another growth sector which can create more jobs. Therefore, employment is one of the primary impacts with which this study is concerned. Coupled with such employment is wage and salary income. Tradi- tionally, wages in the petroleum industry have been higher than the average wage for all employees. Therefore, a growth in oil-related jobs resulting from development of petroleum resources in Alaska can be expected to have a greater impact on Washington than would an increase in number of jobs in other economic sectors. Many of the other jobs will be involved with waterborne freight transportation, where wages are also higher than average. Finally, wages of Washington residents employed in Alaska will be much higher than the Washington average because of the above-noted differential. One of the impacts on state government will be the tax revenues which are generated. Washington's state tax system relies primarily on taxes on business sales in the form of both a sales tax and a business and occupation tax. The state has neither a personal nor corporate income tax. Combined state and local taxes per $1,000 of income in Washington are approximately equal to the U.S. average. The transaction volumes associated with Alaskan development will generate significant amounts of revenue for Washington. In this report, tax revenues are estimated by applying the appropriate tax rates to these sales. (A thorough description of the methodology is provided in Appendix C.) Impacts on Washington will be concentrated on specific industries and geographical areas. Any additional employment will be distributed unevenly throughout the state, but concentrated in specific locations. As a result, people may migrate to those specific areas from locations within or outside the state. In any case, some redistribution of Washington's population is likely to occur and some regions will be required to provide services to an increased population. These population increases result in additional demands for govern- ment services -- police protection, schools, fire services, and recrea- tion. These impacts were estimated in Chapter IX. In this chapter, population increases are projected on the basis of increases in economic activity. In addition, residential and commercial land use needs resulting from these population increases are estimated. XI-9 Arthur D Little, Inc 2. Final Demands on Washington's Economy This section transforms the anticipated commodity impacts described in Chapters I-IV into economic impacts for use with developed input- output models, in order to estimate their total effect on the Washington economy. The derivation of the economic impacts and sources and assump- tions used to generate these impacts is reviewed in Appendix C. The logistical support final demands are far larger than those related to any oil transshipment scenario and they are presented first. Because the level of logistical activity will probably not be significantly altered by the choice of oil transshipment scenario, they may be considered to be part of every transshipment scenario. Most of the oil-related impacts will fall into several economic categories. All of the impacts will entail increased employment, wages and salaries, and resulting multiplier activities in the retail and ser- vice sectors. However, the five scenarios to be presented have very different levels of direct economic impact and hence will have very different levels of total economic impact. Logistic Support Activities The logistic support activities which Washington will provide to oil-related development in Alaska will have a far greater impact than the petroleum flow activities. Regardless of which petroleum flow.sce- 1W nario is realized, the following logistic support activities will occur: 0 Transshipment of materials by water; Transshipment of materials by air; 0 Construction or manufacture of equipment in Washington to be used for oil-related development in Alaska; and 0 The employment of Washington residents in oil-related occupations. Our analysis covers two categories of water transportation flows to Alaska: those required for the development of crude oil resources and those required for the construction of the proposed El Paso natural gas pipeline. The total tonnages of materials that will be shipped, and their descriptions, are provided in Tables IV-7 and IV-8. Washington offers the potential shipper several methods of trans- porting goods to Alaska by water. There are four major Washington- Alaska carriers: Crowley Maritime, which operates both the Sealift and the Hydro-Train; Foss-Lawson; Sealand; and Totem Ocean Trailer Express (TOTE). Crowley Maritime and Sealand both carried substantial amounts of cargo to Alaska during the construction of the Trans-Alaska oil pipeline. TOTE bepin its operations in Jtinc 1976 an(I titilizes a large XI-10 Arthur D Little, Inc ship capable of handling approximately 390 truck trailers. The Hydro- Train can tarry 100 railroad boxcars per trip. The Sealift operation which occurs once a year and varies in size from year to year, utilizes large oceangoing barges to carry building modules to the Alaskan North Slope. Because no other operator has the ships required for this cargo, the Sealift has a monopoly on such trade. The Sealift also carries general cargo, but primarily to fill the barges. Currently TOTE provides weekend service with its one ship leaving Tacoma every Friday night and delivering its cargo to Anchorage on Monday. However, the size of the cargos is limited to those which can fit on a semi-trailer. In addition, because of its higher speed and shorter loading and unloading time, freight rates are higher on TOTE than on the Hydro-Train. However, Hydro-Train requires about eight days for a one-way trip, making it a less desirable carrier for perishable goods. Foss-Lawson also provides barge service to Alaska but, unlike Crowley Maritime, does not provide service to the Prudhoe Bay area. Sealand strikes a medium position between TOTE and the barge operators; it can carry cargo faster than Crowley Maritime and Foss-Lawson but at a higher freight rate, and it is slower and less expensive than TOTE. The majority of the equipment for the Alyeska pipeline was carried by Crowley Maritime; however, because of the proprietary nature of the operations, specifics of the amounts carried by each operator are unavailable. Because of the different capabilities of each carrier and because of their differing freight rates, total cargos to be shipped to Alaska were divided among the carriers based on our estimate of the peculiar requirements and characteristics of different cargos including size, weight, ability to stockpile in Alaska, and freight rates. Once cargos were allocated to specific vessels, the freight rate for that cargo on that vessel was applied to estimate shipping charges. These shipping costs are the estimate of final demand to the water transpor- tation sector.1 Airfreight was used extensively during development of the Alyeska Pipeline primarily because of the speed with which it can deliver vitally necessary cargos. Airfreight was used primarily for perishable goods, those of comparatively light weight, and those critical goods whose absence could cause postponement of other operations. Airfreight was also generally used for goods with a high value-to-weight ratio. 1. Because of possible proprietary conflicts, these working papers cannot be presented. Tables C-16 and C-18 show total shipping charges for all carriers. 00 XI-11 Arthur D Littic Inc Because the forecast of the exact equipment requirements for crude oil development and for the El Paso natural gas pipeline is not avail- able, it has been necessary to make a general allocation of percentages of those cargo classifications within which airfreighted goods can be expected to concentrate. Specifically we assumed that airfreighted cargo would be concentrated in welding materials, oil completion equip- ment, and other miscellaneous equipment. A brief list: of the types of commodities sent by airfreight during the Alyeska Pipeline construction would include ladders, welding rods, engines, gears, equipment trans- missions, specialized valves, connectors, rubber hosing, and a wide variety of other equipment upon whose arrival much of the work depended. General airfreight was used heavily during the Alyeska operations because much of the necessary equipment and parts were warehoused out- side of Alaska. It was considered cheaper to fly this equipment to Alaska on short notice than to maintain local stockpiles which might eventually have to be shipped back to the mainland if they proved unnecessary. The estimated charges for airfreighted cargos are shown in Tables C-17 and C-19. The average charge for equipment airfreighted to Alaska from Washington for the Alyeska pipeline was $500. Because similar materials will be shipped by air in the future, this standardized charge has been applied to all items. Chapter IV provides our best estimates of the number of Washington residents who will find oil-related jobs in Alaska until 1985. However, there is a possibility that a far smaller percentage of the work force will be from Alaska than is assumed in Chapter IV. Therefore, the economic analysis considers two different sizes for the Washington labor force working in Alaska. Table C-20 shows the payroll that would flow to Washington from those Washington residents who work in Alaska. Table C-20 is derived from both the number of people expected to be of Washington origin, as shown in Tables IV-10 through IV-18, and from information providing the probable payroll levels for this personnel. This payroll is applied directly as final demand to the personal consump- tion expenditures vector of the input/output model. It has been assumed that most workers will be residents of the Central Puget Sound region. Kaiser Engineering has taken out options on waterfront land at both the Port of Everett and at Grays Harbor to construct offshore drilling platforms. For the purpose of our analysis we have assumed that the Everett site will be selected, although the impacts will be similar regardless of the site finally chosen. It is Kaiser's intention to construct offshore drilling platforms at the site at the rate of four per year. Kaiser plans to develop orders for these platforms during 1977 and to ask the port to develop the land in that year. Port officials indicate that the first portion of the land can be made available to Kaiser Engineering in 1978, allowing the production of one platform by the end of that year. Production during 1979 can increase to three platforms and will achieve a stable level of four platforms annually starting in 1980. Kaiser Engineering estimates that the selling price of each platform will be between $50 million and $100 million, depending on its size, which is determined by the specific location in which it will be used. Using an average price of $75 million, the annual output of the facility after 1980 will be $300 million. In addition, the Port XI-12 Arthur D Little- Inc of Everett anticipates that approximately $15 million will be required to prepare the site, including costs for dredging and diking and extending the necessary rail lines. The port will supply approximately $10 million of the cost while Kaiser will commit an additional $5 million to the development of the facility. These final demands are summarized in Table X1-3. One of the sectors that will receive significant impacts from the logistics activities will be the services and finance, insurance, and real estate sectors. However, we do not believe that these impacts will be caused by direct final demands for the services of these.sectors but will rather arise through indirect and induced demands. The way in which direct final demands would be placed on these sectors in Washington would be through oil-related development companies based in Alaska. Demands from companies in Washington working on oil-related activities would be indirect and the direct final demands would be for the industry itself. Similarly, the use of these services by Washington residents working in Alaska is an indirect demand stemming from the salaries they are paid. While Washington does have a much larger services and FIRE sector than Alaska, most of the oil-related development firms are national and international in character. We believe that these agencies will locate most of their demands for services and FIRE in their base office or at the place of operations. Therefore, if one of these firms cannot find the service it requires in Alaska, it is more likely to seek the service through its home office rather than set up separate accounts with a firm in Washington. Therefore, we have not included any direct final demands for services of FIRE. All of the logistic support final demands are summarized in Table XI-3. The total impact of logistic support activities will be between $2,171 million and $2,561 million. Almost 75% of this will be generated by the construction of oil production platforms at the Port of Everett. However, this is an activity in which large leakages are anticipated. Discussions with Kaiser Engineering have indicated that only a very small portion of the total materials requirements for the platforms will be purchased in Washington, the majority coming from both the Midwest and California. As a result, the impact of this activity on Alaska will be far less than would be implied by the total volume of sales of the facility alone. Because it is expected that timing will be a more important con- sideration with the construction of the El Paso natural gas line than with the continuing program of crude oil development, we have assumed that a greater percentage of total material needs will be shipped to Alaska via airfreight. As a result airfreight charges are estimated at $32.5 million for the pipeline over a three-year construction period but at only $9.2 million over a six-year period for crude oil development. XI-13 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE XI-3 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Airborne Washington Waterborne Airborne Waterborne Commerce Residents Manufacturing Commerce Commerce Commerce for El Paso Working in of Oil for Crude Oil for Crude Oil for El Paso Natural Gas Alaskae Platforms in Total Year Developmenta Developmentb Gas Linec Lined High LO-W -Washingtonf High Low 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 0 $ 0 $ 6,000 $ 6,000 6,000 1978 0 0 0 0 0 0 9,000 9,000 9,000 1979 0 0 40,248 12,773 0 0 75,000 128,021 128,021 1980 15,196 893 40,583 13,865 28,414 4,011 225,000 323,951 299,548 1981 21,430 960 3,259 5,840 55,723 7,867 300,000 387,212 339,356 1982 27,246 1,523 0 0 83,031 11,722 300,000 411,800 340,491 1983 33,064 1,837 0 0 89,429 12,625 300,000 424,330 347,526 1984 33,246 1,953 0 0 95,828 13,529 300,000 431 027 348,728 1985 35,693 2,067 0 0 102,228 14,432 300,000 439,988 352,192 Total $165,875 $9,233 $84,090 $32,478 $454,653 $64,186 $1,815,000 $2,561,329 $2,170,862 a. From Table 0-18. New impact. b. From Table C-19. New impact. c. From Table C-16. New impact. d. From Table C-17. New impact. e. From Table C-20. New impact. f. From Table C-21. New impact. OF Scenario I-A: Status Quo In this scenario the only Alaskan oil flowing into the state of Washington will be destined for the four existing Puget Sound refineries Atlantic Richfield, Mobil, Shell, and Texaco. With the exception of the Atlantic Richfield installation, each refinery is limited as to the per- centage of its total'capacity which can be filled by Alaskan crude. This limitation is caused by the specific gravity count and sulfur content of Alaskan crude as compared with the crude for which the refineries were designed. Using the information in Table IV-7, it has been assumed that total flow into the four Washington refineries will equal 133.4 million barrels per day (million B/D). This flow can be expected to begin in 1978 with the Trans Alaska Pipeline operation. Some of the final demands will be new activities for Washington, while others will simply replace activities which had been previously operating in the state. An example of a new impact is the construction of new berths and oil storage tanks, while an example of a replacement impact is the refinery operations that will be conducted using Alaskan crude in the future compared to Canadian crude in the past. The impacts generated by the new final demands will be called the "net impacts" of oil-related development on Alaska. Addition of the replacement impacts will estimate the "gross impacts" of oil-related development on Alaska. It is useful to estimate gross impacts because it provides an indication at any one time of the total amount of an activity on the state. Net impact estimates are useful in that they show for what new activities planning must take place and facilities provided. In this chapter we will clearly delineate between those parts of the gross impacts that derive from both new and replacement final demands. The impacts of this scenario on Washington fall into three major categories: tanker movements, petroleum refinery operations, and expansion of petroleum berth facilities. The costs of tanker operations required to supply 133.4 million B/D of oil to Puget Sound refineries are presented in Table C-13, refinery operating costs in Table C-12, and petroleum berth expansion facility costs in Table C-11. It should be noted that the petroleum berth expansion costs are the total costs required for all necessary expansion anticipated by each of the major refineries before 1985. These costs are summarized in Table IV-6. Since only the Atlantic Richfield refinery will be receiving 100% of its crude oil requirements from Alaska, the percentage of these berth expansion costs that could be allocated to Alaskan operations is less than that indicated in the table. However, even if foreign sources of oil were not being used in the three other refineries, expansions of this size would be required simply to handle the Jones Act fleet tankers arriving from Alaska. Therefore, we have included the total berth expansion costs in our estimate. XI-15 Arthur D Little Inc In contrast to the above, only those tanker transportation and oil refinery costs related to Alaskan crude are included in the scenario definition. Transportation costs of crude originating outside Alaska and refinery costs of that crude are excluded. The direct level impact of this scenario is shown in Table XI-4. Impacts begin in 1978 with the expansion and construction of the dock facilities, the transportation of Alaskan crude oil to Washington, and the refining of Alaskan crude. During this first year, the total expected impact on Washington will approximate $121 million. After the terminal facilities are completed in 1979, the impact of this sce- nario in constant 1976 dollars is expected to decline to $92 million in gross final demands and $22 million in net final demands. Because none of the refineries is expected to make the changes which would allow them to handle a higher percentage of Alaskan crude, this figure is assumed to remain constant thorugh 1985. The total gross impact of this scenario from 1978 through 1985 is approximately $600 million. Scenario II-A: Northern Tier: Port Angeles Terminal Without Puget Sound Spur The only difference between Scenarios I-A and II-A is the addition of the Northern Tier Pipeline beginning in Port Angeles and running to Clearbrook, Minnesota. In this scenario it is assumed that no connection is made between the Northern Tier Pipeline and the four existing Puget Sound refineries. Therefore, the Puget Sound refineries will continue to receive oil from their own berth facilities. They will use the same amount of oil as calculated in Scenario I and the subsequent costs of the operation will be the same as those in Scenario I. Because this analysis addresses only the impacts of oil-related development in Alaska on the State of Washington, we have not included the total construction and operation costs of the Northern Tier Pipeline. Instead, only those costs which will occur in Washington have been included. (The methodology for this computation is explained in the text of Appendix C and in Table C-15.) Two throughput levels for the Northern Tier Pipeline have been proposed -- 600 million B/D and 800 million B/D. Table C-15 shows the marginal increase required in both capital and operating expenses for an additional 200 million B/D. Tanker costs associated with transporting oil to the Northern Tier Pipeline are reviewed in Table C-14. We have assumed for this scenario a Port Angeles terminal and a 600 million B/D throughput. Tanker transpor- tation costs are based on work conducted by Arthur D. Little for the Port of Long Beach in a Draft Environmental Impact Report on the Standard Oil of Ohio proposal to ship Alaskan crude oil to Long Beach and then send it to Midland, Texas, via a series of reversed natural gas pipelines. XI-16 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE XI-4 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO I (thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario CoMponent Marine Refining Crude Oil Terminal Costs for Delivery to Expansion Puget Sound Puget Sound Costsa Refineriesb Refineriesc Total 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 1978 29,484 69.755 22,073 121,312 1979 17,064 69,755 22,073 108)892 1980 0 69,755 22,073 91,828 1981 0 69,755 22,073 91,828 1982 0 69,755 22,073 91,828 1983 0 69,755 22,073 91,828 1984 0 69,755 22,073 91,828 1985 0 69 31755 22,073 91,828 Total $46,548 $558,040 $176,584 $781,172 a. From Table C-11. New impact. b. From Table C-12. Replacement impact. c. From Table C-13; Cherry Point destination. New impact. XI-17 Arthur D Little- Inc. As part of that.study, we assessed the.costs of alternative oil shipment proposals including the Northern Tier Pipeline. Tanker costs were esti- mated for two scenarios. The scenario resulting in the highest transpor- tation costs assumed that all Jones Act fleet ships were allocated so that the largest capacity vessels were sent on the longest runs and the smaller capacity ships were used for shorter runs such as Valdez to Puget Sound. The rationale is that large ships achieve their greatest savings on the longest runs. In the second scenario it was assumed that the largest ship which could safely dock at each landing site was used. In the case of the Northern Tier Pipeline, it was assumed that the maximum tanker size was 265,000 deadweight tons (DWT). Transportation costs per barrel were then calculated for each scenario; the results have been used in the present study to estimate tanker transportation costs. As can be seen from Table C-14, the difference between the high and low cost estimate is approximately $14 million annually. Table XI-5 summarizes the direct impacts on Washington of Scenario II-A. All of the impacts that were not part of Scenario I-A are new IWO impacts adding to the net impact of this scenario. The only replacement impact in the scenario is the refining of Alaskan crude oil in the four Puget Sound refineries. As noted above, the difference in size of the impacts in Scenarios I-A and II-A is due solely to the introduction of the Northern Tier Pipeline. Annual operating costs of the pipeline, including shipment of Alaskan crude to Port Angeles and operating expenses of the pipeline, range between $94 million and $108 million depending on the size of the tanker uses. Construction costs for the pipeline within Washington State alone are estimated at slightly more than $288 million in 1976 dollars. Both figures refer to a pipeline with a throughput of 600 million B/D. Total operating costs for an 800 million B/D throughput, including tanker transportation, are between $126 million and $145 million annually; construction costs for the pipe- line increase the total by $18 million. Scenario II-B: Northern Tier: Port Angeles Terminal with Puget Sound Spur This scenario differs from Scenario II-A in that oil bound for the four Puget Sound refineries would be off-loaded at the Port Angeles ter- minal and piped to the refineries via the Northern Tier Pipeline and an additional pipeline spur from lower Puget Sound. The following differ- ences in economic impact would result: � No expansion of berth facilities at the refineries necessary. � Increased size for the initial part of the Northern Tier Pipeline, resulting in increased construction and operating costs. XI-18 Arthur D LittIc Inc TABLE XI-5 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO II-A (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Crude Oil Northern Tier All Delivery to Pipeline Scenario I Northern Tier Construction and Year Component sa Ripelineb Operation Costc Total 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 0 1978 121,312 0 144,184 265,496 1979 108,892 0 144,184 253,076 1980 91,828 76,427 31,736 199,991 1981 91,828 76,427 31,736 199,991 1982 91,828 76,427 31,736 199,991 1983 91,828 76,427 31,736 199,991 1984 91,828 76,427 31,736 199,991 1985 913,828 _76L427 31,736 199,991 Total $781,172 $458,562 $478,784 $1,718,518 a. From Table XI-4. Replacement impact during each year is $69.755 million. b. From Table C-14; Port Angeles destination. Assumes 600 MBPD. New impact. c. From Table C-15. Assumes 600 MBPD. New impact. XI-19 Arthur D Little, Inc � Addition of construction and operating costs of the spur pipeline. � Reduction of tanker transportation cost to Puget Sound refineries because of Port Angeles, not Cherry Point, destination. The direct impacts of this scenario are shown in Table XI-6. The cost of crude oil transportation to Puget Sound refineries drops from $22 million in Scenario I to between $14 million and $17 million. The cost of tanker transport of crude to Port Angeles for eventual use in Puget Sound refineries is the same as the cost for eventual shipment through the Northern Tier Pipeline. Refinery costs, which are the. only replacement impact in this scenario, are the same as those of Scenario I-A. There is a net difference of $14-$16 million between the construction and operating costs of the pipeline spur and of the alternative improved berth facilities at Cherry Point. This scenario assumes the Puget Sound refineries would not construct the berth expansions and improvements of Scenario I-A. However, this would require the pipeline spur to be completed by 1978 since the refineries would otherwise be hampered in their ability to receive Alaskan oil. Scenario III: Northern Tier Pipeline: Cherry Point Terminal This scenario is similar to Scenario II expect that it is assumed that the Northern Tier Pipeline begins at Cherry Point. Total costs are similar to those of Scenario II-A. (See Table XI-7.). As a result tanker costs would increase because of the additional time tankers would be required to spend at Puget Sound and because different size tankers would be used. These differences, between $22 million and $36 million annually, are shown in Table C-14. There would be a savings in berth construction and operating costs for the pipeline because of the shorter length. For the purposes of this analysis it has been assumed that the costs of a pipeline from a Northern Tier Cherry Point terminal to the Puget Sound refineries would equal the costs of the proposed refinery berth expansions shown in Table C-11. Therefore, total costs of local refinery operations including oil transportation, refining, and berth expansion are assumed to equal those of Scenario I-A. Refining opera- tions, which comprise 32% of total final demand after construction of the Northern Tier Pipeline is completed, are the only replacement impact in this scenario. Scenario IV: Kitimat Trans Mountain Pipeline This proposal would utilize a deepwater port at Kitimat, British Columbia, for oil off-loading and ship the oil through a combination of new and existing pipelines to the four Puget Sound refineries and to the Midwest. Because of the paucity of facilities at Kitimat, it is assumed that all tankers would still use Puget Sound as their home port and that XI-20 Arthur D Little, IrK- TABLE XI-6 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO II-B (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Pipeline Refinery Construction Tanker Operating and Operation Transport Year Costsa Costsb Costsc Total 1978 $ 69,755 $174,184 $ 22,073 $ 266,012 1979 69,755 174,184 22,073 266,012 1980 69,755 35,000 71,472 176,227 1981 69,755 35,000 71,472 176,227 1982 69,755 35,000 71,472 176,227 1983 69,755 35,000 71,472 176,227 1984 69,755 35,000 71,472 176,227 1985 69@755 35POOO 71)472 176)227 Total $558,040 $558,368 $472,978 $1,589,386 a. From Table C-12. Replacement impact. b. From Table C-15. Assumes a capacity of 730 MBPD from Port Angeles to the origin of the pipeline spur, a capacity of 130 MBPD for the pipeline spur, and a capacity of 600 MBPD for the remainder of the Northern Tier Pipeline. New impact. c. From Table C-14. Assumes 730 MBPD. New impact. XI-21 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE XI-7 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO III (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Northern Tier Crude Oil Pipeline All Delivery to Construction Scenario I Northern Tier and Operation Year Com2onentsa Pipelineb Costsc Total 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 0 1978 121,312 0 139,668 260,980 1979 108,892 0 144,248 253,140 1980 91,828 98,550 31,000 221,37 8 1981 91,828 98,550 31,000 221,378 1982 91,828 98,550 31,000 221,378 1983 91,828 98,550 31,000 221,378 1984 91,828 98,550 31,000 221,378 1985 91P828 98)550 31,000 221,378 Total $781,172 $591,300 $469,916 $1,842,388 a. From Table XI-4. Replacement impact d@ring each year of $69.755 million. b. From Table C-14. Assumes 600 MBPD and Cherry Point destination. New impact ' C. From Table C-15. New impact. XI-22 Arthur D Little- Inc the costs of tanker operation would accrue to Washington. Because the Canadian government prefers to see Canadian rather than U.S. labor used whenever possible, and because there are existing rail lines into the Kitimat region, it has been assumed that no construction materials would flow through the ports of Seattle or Tacoma in support of any construction work required by this scenario. Impacts on Washington would be limited to petroleum refinery operations at the Puget Sound refineries and tanker transportation expenses. Refinery operations are a replacement impact while tanker transportation is a new impact. Refinery operating costs will be the same as they are in all other scenarios. However, oil transportation costs will be between only $62 million and $89 million. It has been assumed that the economic impacts of all pipeline transportation costs under this scenario will accrue to the Province of British Columbia. The impacts of this scenario on Washington are shown in Table XI-8. This scenario will have the smallest net impact of the five because of both the lower tanker costs and the comparative lack of construction of oil-handling facilities within Washington. Nevertheless, total net impacts are estimated at approximately $570,000 by the end of 1985, assuming 600 million B/D through the Kitimat pipeline to the Midwest and the utili- zation of the comparatively smaller ships of the Jones Act Fleet. E. TOTAL IMPACTS ON WASHINGTON OF ALASKAN PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION As has been indicated previously, our assessment measures both the gross and net impacts of petroleum flow and logistic support activities on the State of Washington. Net impacts are those generated by the net final demands while gross impacts also include those related to the gross impacts.' We have utilized two different input/output models of the state. Both models disaggregate the state into two regions: Region 1 is that area in which the direct final demand impacts will occur, while region 2 is the rest of the state. In the case of logistical impacts, region I consists of the counties of King, Pierce, and Snohomish; for petroleum flow impacts, region I includes the counties of Clallam, Whatcom, and Skagit. Tables XI-9-XI-20 describe the gross impacts of each scenario on both regions. The following impact measurements are provided for each scenario: 1. The only gross impacts are those related to the existing refining activities. XI-23 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE XI-8 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO IV (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Crude Oil for Crude Oil Refining Local Refineries for Midwest Cost for Delivered to Delivered to Puget Sound Year Kitimata Kitimatb Refineriesc Total 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 0 1978 22,073 0 69,755 91,828 1979 14,415 64,360 69,755 148,530 1980 14,415 64,360 69,755 1483,530 1981 14,415 64,360 69,755 148,530 1982 14,415 64,360 69,755 148,530 1983 14,415 64,360 69,755 148,530 1984 14,415 64,360 69,755 148,530 1985 14)415 64,360 69@0755 1485,530 Total $122,978 $450,520 $558,040 $1,131,538 a. From Table C-14. New impact. b. From Table C-14. Assumes Kitimat as destination and throughput of 600 MBPD. New impact. c. From Table C-12. Replacement impact. XI-24 Arthur D Little Inc. t F I F I P w w w TABLE XI-9 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS* LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (high estimate; thousands of-1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales- Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 $ 15,000 $ 18,951 $ 397 $ 757 $ 56 74 7 1979 128,021 178,842 5,441 19,619 800 1,560 103 1980 323,951 473,075 24,861 38,091 2,891 3,576 377 1981 387,212 625,081 45,461 41,791 5,230 4,781 693 1982 411,800 713,955 64,885 48,158 7,434 5,942 995 1983 424,330 771,458 76,906 55,090 9,137 6,916 1,232 1984 431,027 793,885 83,867 57,680 10,056 7,322 1,362 1985 439,988 814,312 89,315 60,074 10,743 7,648 1,458 1986** -0- 266,852 46,861 30,836 7,261 4@742 992 1987** -0- 133,718 23,602 15,480 3,659 2,380 500 1988** -0- 63,189 11,234 7,336 1,743 1,128 238 *All impacts are net impacts; i.e., there are no replacement impacts. **Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE XI-10 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS* LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1.Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 ReRion 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 173 18 58 6 23 2 $ 44 $ 1 $ 70 $ 1 $ 21 $ 2 $ 135 $ 4 1979 3,674 248 1,225 83 490 33 633 21 701 115 470 26 1,804 62 1980 8,417 914 2,806 305 1,122 122 1,510 80 1,613 53 1,027 98 4,150 231 1981 11,245 1,674 3,748 558 1,499 223 1,970 152 1,869 94 1,308 181 5,147 427 1982 13,972 2,399 4,657 800 1,863 320 2,380 224 1,987 131 1,597 259 5,964 614 1983 16,264 2,965 5,421 988 2,169 395 2,710 281 2,112 159 1,857 321 6,679 761 1984 17,221 3,273 5,740 1,091 2,296 436 2,843 314 2,152 174 1,966 354 6,961 842 1985 17,987 3,503 5,996 1,168 2,398 467 2,953 338 2,196 185 2,058 379 7,207 902 1986** 11,159 2,373 3,720 791 1,488 316 1,537 230 469 126 1,224 255 3,230 611 1987** 5,602 1,196 1,867 399 747 159 772 116 235 63 614 129 1,621 308 1988** 2,655 570 885 190 354 76 366 55 112 30 290 62 768 147 *All impacts are net impacts; i.e., there are no replacement impacts. **Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. t I W TABLE XI-11 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO I STATUS QUO (thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region_2 1978a $121,312 $129,187.0 $19,821.6 $11,864 $2,286 671 225 1979b 108,912 123,168.2 35,379.9 1,053 4,094 731 402 1980c 91,828 106,677.1 35,504.4 6,269 4,142 553 404 1981d 91,828 107,432.5 36,345.3 6,355 4,266 556 415 1982e 91,828 105,604.8 31,081.0 5,747 3,676 488 356 f 1983 91,828 104,627.8 28,266.9 5,422 3,361 452 325 1984f 91,828 104,627.8 28,266.9 5,422 3,361 452 325 1985f 91,828 104,627.8 28,266.9 5,422 3,361 452 325 1986g -0- 8,542.2 18,864.5 2,133 2.4243 210 217 1987g -0- 9,402.4 9,402.4 1,063 1,118 105 108 1988g -0- 1,986.9 4,387.8 496 522 49 50 a. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 60% of gross impacts in all 'categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 40% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 35% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 25% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 15% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE XI-12 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO I - STATUS QUO (thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes- Year Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978a 1,583 530 528 177 211 71 $182 $ 65 $569 $35 $230 $ 63 $ 982 $162 1979b 1,724 948 575 316 230 126 234 117 541 63 232 113 1,007 293 1980c 1,305 954 435 318 174 127 235 119 464 66 162 114 860 299 1981d 1,312 979 437 326 175 131 237 123 468 69 165 119 870 310 1982e 1,151 840 384 280 154 112 219 106 460 61 147 102 826 269 1983f 1,066 766 355 255 142 102 210 97 456 56 137 94 802 247 1984f 1,066 766 355 255 142 102 210 97 456 56 137 94 803 247 f 1985 1,066 766 355 255 142 102 210 97 456 56 137 94 803 247 co 19869 495 511 165 170 66 68 62 65 40 38 60 63 163 165 1987g 247 255 82 85 33 34 31 32 20 19 30 31 81 82 1988g 115 119 38 40 15 16 14 15 9 9 14 15 38 38 a. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 60% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 40% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 35% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 25% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 15% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. fD TABLE XI-13 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO II-A - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITHOUT PUGET SOUND SPUR (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 a $265,496 $286,056 $ 66,973 $59,265 $ 7,860 2,953 779 1979 b 253,076 292,804 129,982 62,355 15,279 3,510 1,514 1980 c 241,228 126,120 16,668 14,850 1,531 19460 1981 d 199,991 242,037 1199646 15,462 14,103 1,375 1,375 1982 e 199,991 237,100 989844 13,083 11,673 1,101 1,128 f 1983 199,991 233,402 82,435 11,209 9,748 884 932 1984 f 199,991 233,402 829435 11,209 99748 884 932 1985 f 199,991 2339402 82,435 11,209 9,748 884 932 1986g -0- 229298 55,015 4,284 6,505 423 622 1987g -0- 119114 27,420 2,135 3,242 211 310 1988g -0- 51186 12,796 996 1,513 98 145 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE XI-14 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO II-A - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITHOUT PUGET SOUND SPUR (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1. Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 a 6,970 1,838 2,323 612 929 245 $332 $226 $ 687 $109 $1,074 $214 $2,096 $ 552 1979 b 8,282 3,573 2,760 1,191 1,104 476 535 441 717 212 1,216 423 2,469 1,077 1980 c 3,614 3,446 1,204 1,148 481 459 498 432 1,089 221 441 412 2,030 1,066 1981 d 3,245 3,245 1,081 1,081 432 432 453 413 1,092 226 405 393 1,951 1,034 1982 e 2,598 2,662 866 887 346 354 373 345 1,069 201 330 323 1,774 871 1983 f 2,086 2,199 695 733 278 293 309 291 1,052 181 272 269 1,634 742 f 1984 2,086 2,199 695 733 278 293 309 291 1,052 181 272 270 1,635 743 0 1985 f 2,086 2,199 695 733 278 293 309 291 1,052 181 273 270 1,636 743 1986g 998 1,468 332 489 133 195 128 194 101 121 121 180 352 496 1987g 497 731 165 243 66 97 64 96 50 60 60 90 175 247 19889 232 341 77 113 30 45 29 45 23 28 28 42 81 115 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE XI-15 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO II-B - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH PUGET SOUND SPUR (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Region_2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978a $251,012 $269,275 $ 61,459 $55,622 $ 7,273 2,762 720 1979b 251,012 287,653 123,308 61,572 14,591 3,415 1,445 1980c 198,300 237,141 121,336 15,992 14,372 1,456 1,412 1981d 198,300 238,075 115,046 14,893 13,641 1,313 1,329 1982e 198,300 234,053 96,513 12,843 11,455 1,076 1,107 f 1983 198,300 230,534 80,297 11,059 9,542 869 912 1984f 198,300 230,534 80,297 11,059 9,542 869 912 1985f 198,300 230,534 80,297 11,059 9,542 869 912 1986g -0- 21,512 53,588 4,171 6,368 412 609 19879 -0- 10,722 26,709 2,079 3,174 205 303 1988g -0- 5,004 12,464 970 1,481 96 142 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE XI-16 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO II-B NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH PUGET SOUND SPUR (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1.Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 a 6,518 1,699 2,172 566 869 226 $313 $210 $ 546 $100 $1,007 $199 $1,867 $ 511 1979 b 8,060 3,410 2,686 1,136 1,074 454 511 422 630 202 1,190 404 2,333 1,030 1980 c 3,436 3,333 1,145 1,111 458 444 482 419 1,071 214 421 399 1,975 1,033 1981 d 3,097 3,136 1,032 1,045 413 418 438 400 1,074 219 387 379 1,901 1,001 1982 e 2,538 2,611 846 870 338 348 366 339 1,056 197 323 317 1,747 854 1983 f 2,050 2,152 683 717 273 287 303 285 1,039 177 268 263 1,611 726 1984 f 2,050 2,152 683 717 273 287 303 285 1,039 177 268 264 1,612 727 f 1985 2,050 2,152 683 717 273 287 303 285 1,039 177 269 264 1,613 727 1986g 972 1,436 324 478 129 191 124 190 98 118 118 177 341 485 19879 484 716 161 238 64 95 62 94 48 59 58 87 170 242 1988g 226 334 75 111 30 44 29 44 22 27 27 40 79 113 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. d I oil TABLE XI-17 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMAPCTS SCENARIO III - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH CHERRY POINT TERMINAL (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales- Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978a $231,496 $253,024 $ 56,575 $50,712 $ 6,695 2,526 663 1979b 236,076 270,081 113,508 56,204 13,433 3,128 1,330 1980c 221,378 260,473 118,890 16,009 14,037 1,427 1,377 1981d 221,378 264,408 120,344 15,500 14,175 1,345 1,378 >4 1982e 221,378 262,302 107@122 13,880 12,593 1,153 1,215 f 1983 221,378 260,459 95,553 12,463 11,208 986 1,072 1984f 221,378 260,459 95,553 12,463 11,208 986 1,072 1985f 221,378 260,459 95,553 12,463 11P208 986 1,072 1986g -0- 26,081 63,769 4,857 7,480 480 715 1987g -0- 12,999 31,784 2,421 3P728 239 356 1988g -0- 6,066 14,832 1,130 1,740 112 166 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. rD TABLE XI-18 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO III - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH CHERRY POINT TERMINAL (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1. Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 a 5,960 1,564 1,986 521 794 208 $297 $193 $ 534 $ 93 $ 919 $183 $1,752 $ 471 1979 b 7,380 3,138 2,460 1,046 984 418 480 388 612 187 1,088@ 372 2,182 948 1980 C 3,366 3,249 1,122 1,083 448 433 468 409 1,179 213 416 389 2,064 1,013 1981 d 3,173 3,252 1,057 1,084 423 433 444 417 1,196 233 398 394 2,041 1,046 1982 e 2,721 2,866 907 955 362 382 386 373 1,186 221 347 349 1,922 944 f 1983 2,326 2,529 775 843 310 337 336 335 1,177 210 303 309 1,818 856 >4 1984 f 2,326 2,529 775 843 310 337 336 335 1,177 210 304 310 1,818 856 f X, 1985 2,326 2,529 775 843 310 337 336 335 1,177 210 304 310 1,819 857 19869 1,132 1,688 377 562 151 225 146 223 118 140 137 207 403 572 19879 564 841 188 280 75 112 73 ill 59 70 67 103 200 285 1988g 263 392 87 130 35 52 34 52 27 32 31 48 93 133 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. > Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. C7 db db TABLE XI-19 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO IV - KITIMAT-TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978a $ 91,828 $ 96,086 $ 9,402 $3,289 $1,118 242 108 1979b 148,510 161,924 30,210 6,175 3,512 466 338 1980c 148,510 169,078 46,643 7,484 5,386 595 518 1981d 148,510 173,653 57,081 8,373 6,585 683 633 1982e 148,510 175,917 62,376 8,717 7,178 717 689 e 1983 148,510 175,917 62,376 8,717 7,178 717 689 e 148,510 1984 175,917 62,376 8,717 7,178 717 689 1985e 148,510 175,917 62,376 8,717 7,178 717 689 1986f -o- 18,278 41,628 3,612 4,790 356 460 1987f -o- 9,110 20,748 1,800 2,387 178 229 1988f -0- 4,251 9,682 840 1,114 83 107 a. Net impacts will be approximately 35% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 40% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 50% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 50% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 55% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. rD TABLE XI-20 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO IV - KITIMAT-TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE (high estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) - Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes- Year Region 1. Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978a 571 254 190 84 76 33 $147 $ 32 $415 $ 18 $ 74 $ 29 $ 637 $ 81 1979b 1,099 797 366 265 146 106 201 102 721 62 142 95 1,067 261 1980c 1,404 1,221 468 407 187 162 241 158 754 98 180 146 1,176 404 1981d 1,611 1,493 537 497 214 199 268 194 775 120 207 181 1,251 496 1982e 1,691 1,626 563 542 225 216 279 211 785 132 217 197 1,282 542 1983e 1,691 1,626 563 542 225 216 279 211 785 132 217 198 1,282 543 1984e 1,691 1,626 563 542 225 216 279 211 785 132 218 198 1,283 543 e 1985 1,691 1,626 563 542 225 216 279 211 785 132 218 199 1,283 544 1986f 840 1,085 280 361 112 144 108 141 83 88 102 133 294 363 1987f 419 541 139 180 55 72 54 70 41 43 50 65 146 181 1988f 195 252 65 84 26 33 25 32 19 20 23 30 68 84 a. Net impacts will be approximately 15% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 40% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 50% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 50% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 55% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B &0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. C7 Al Final demand sales Total sales Wage and salary income Person years of employment 0 Population supported Household supported Residential land consumption of supported population � Property and per capita tax revenues � Total tax revenues Other economic and infrastructure impacts are discussed in Chapter VII. Two result tables have been prepared for each scenario. The first table in each pair provides information concerning the first four impacts above, while the second table shows the impacts of the remaining categories. In Tables XI-9 and XI-10, which describe the impacts of the logistical support activities, all of the impacts are net impacts, since there were no replacement final demands. However, in the case of the petroleum flow scenarios, the impact of the existing refining activities is a replacement impact. The level of this activity is constant in all the petroleum flow scenarios. In footnotes to each table we indicate the impacts that are related to the replacement impacts. Each table shows the level of total impacts for each year in the forecast period -- 1978-85. Because multiplier impacts are expected to lag final demands by up to three years, the tables show impacts through 1988. The impacts from 1986-88 are only multiplier impacts and are there- fore far smaller than the impacts shown for previous years. However, while no forecasts have been made of final demand impacts occurring from 1986-88, there will be some such impacts; therefore the tables underesti- mate impacts for those three years. The timing of final demand impacts is shown clearly in Tables XI-3- XI-8. While these forecasts represent our best estimates of when these impacts will occur, environmental constraints, legal decisions, and capi- tal formation problems might delay them. However, as long as they even- tually occur, their long-term impact on the economy will not vary signi- ficantly. Because the exact magnitude of the final demands is unknown, we have provided a range for those where forecasting is likely to be most inaccurate. Tables XI-3-XI-8 have shown the high estimates of impact while Tables D-1-D-5 in Appendix D have shown the low estimates. Simi- larly, the impacts projected using these low estimates of final demand are shown by scenario in Appendix D, Tables D-6-D-15. XI-37 Arthur D Little Inc 1. Logistic Support Activities In spite of the fact that most people think of the impact of Alaskan development on Washington as consisting of the impacts of the oil flowing from Alaska through Washington, our analysis of the impacts of the logistic support Washington will provide Alaska demonstrates conclusively that logistic support activities will far outweigh the impact of any petroleum flow scenario. The total impact on sales of logistic support activities will be over $810 million during 1985 alone. During this year almost 9000 jobs will be dependent upon these activities and more than $70 million in wage and sal- ary income will be generated. Statewide tax receipts during 1985 for those tax sources we have estimated will total $2.4 million. (See Tables XI-9 and XI-10.1) By way of comparison, Scenario III, which has the greatest long-term impact of any of the petroleum flow scenarios, has peak year sales of $288 million and 1985 sales of only $231 million. Only during the years 1978 and 1979 of the forecast period are sales for logistic support less than those amounts. The high volume of sales is caused in part by the $300 million in projected sales by Kaiser Engineering of drilling platforms at the Port of Everett. However, the impact of these sales on the economy is minimal. Most of the steel will be shipped to Everett from California and the opera- tion will need to make few other purchases from local suppliers. Employ- ment at the site has been estimated at between 250 and 600 but will probably be about 300 persons as forecasted by the model. Since the linkages between the project and the rest of the regional and state economy will be so small, the indirect impact is limited. Because of the small amount of employment at the site compared to the total volume of sales, even the induced impacts emanating from the project will not be very large. While the impacts of the logistic activities are larger than those of the petroleum flow activities, their concentration in the Central Puget Sound region means that they will not have a larger percentage impact on their surrounding region than the petroleum flow activities had on Clallam, Whatcom, and Skagit counties. The estimated 1976 population of the three Central Puget Sound counties was over 1.8 million. The maximum supported population of 18,000 represents less than 1% of this total population. Since it will be dispersed from Tacoma to Everett, its impact on any single area will be minimal. In addition, the estimate of population supported in Table XI-10 would be the maximum amount of in-migration that would occur. Many of the jobs supported by logistic activities will be held by present residents of the Central Puget Sound area and will not cause any in-migration. 1. All logistical impacts are net impacts. XI-38 Arthur D Little Inc. 31 The residential land requirements are significantly greater than those 31 of the petroleum flow scenarios but are still insignificant compared to the vast area in which they will be located. Since only a fraction of the sup- ported population will be in-migrants, only a fraction of the residential land required to house the population will be changed from its present un- developed state. The tax revenues from logistic activities will be substantial. During 1985 alone, more than $8.1 million in tax revenue will be generated, or more than $375 for every person supported by these activities. Since this esti- mate of tax revenues does not include local tax revenues, the total amount generated will be even higher. Because of the high proportion of final demand that is made up of wages of Washington residents working in Alaska that are sent back to Alaska, a very high proportion of the total revenue will consist of sales taxes -- 40% of all revenue in 1985. Business and occupation taxes contribute an additional 30%, with the remaining 30% gene- rated by a combination of the state property tax levy, alcoholic beverage, motor vehicle fuel, and cigarette taxes. Tables XI-9 and XI-10 present our best estimates of net logistic impacts. Corresponding to a lower level of final demands, particularly caused by fewer Washington residents holding jobs in Alaska, a lower level of impacts is shown in Tables D-6 and D-7. The difference in statewide sales grows to a maximum of $214 million in 1985, or 24% of total state- wide sales in the best estimate. Differences in the other impact measures are similar. With the exception of some of the wage and salary income earned in Alaska, it has been assumed that all the logistic final demands accrue to the three Central Puget Sound counties. For the wage and salary income it has been assumed that 80% of the amount accrued to the Central Puget Sound counties and 20% to the rest of the state, probably other parts of Puget Sound. The multipliers from this activity in the rest of the state appear to be approximately equal. It is impossible to estimate the multipliers in each region for this activity, but based on population they are probably similar. However, in the case of persons living outside the Central Puget Sound region, the leakage rate of the multiplier out of their local community is higher than for those people who reside in the Central Puget Sound area. 2. Scenario I - Status Quo Scenario I will have the smallest economic impacts of all the petro- leum flow scenarios. In addition, the only net impacts of Scenario I are the transshipment of Alaskan crude oil to the Puget Sound refineries and the construction of the necessary dockage and storage facilities. In this scenario, there is no transshipment of oil through Washington for other parts of the nation, so tanker traffic is the minimum required to serve Washington refineries. Capital construction is limited to the necessary berth and dock expansion at the existing refineries. Gross XI-39 Arthur D Little Inc s,ales impacts in region I -- Clallam, Whatcom, and Skagit counties, but particularly the latter two -- will reach their peak during the first year of this program. During that year, berth and dock expansion expenditures will be at their maximum level of $29 million. However, employment will not reach its peak until the second year. The construction, oil shipping, and refining activities have relatively AM low employment-to-sales ratios, whereas the multiplier activity, including retail sales and business services, has a much higher employment-to-sales ratio. Therefore, if the impact of this stimulus filters through the econ- omy and secondary jobs are created, the number of jobs relative to the amount of sales can be expected to increase. In fact, in region 2, where the impacts are totally those of the multiplier, employment does not peak AM until 1981. Gross wage and salary income in region I begins at its highest value of about $11.9 million in 1978 and dips to $5.4 million in 1983. In comparison, gross income in region 2 rises from about $2.3 million in 1978 to a peak of $4.3 million in 1981 and drops to $3.4 million in 1983. '(See Tables XI-11 and XI-12.) Much of the gross impact of this scenario is related to the impact of the existing oil refineries. As a result net impacts are less than half of ,total gross impacts. We estimate that net employment in region 1 peaks at .680 during the second year of the scenario and declines to only 100 Vy 1983. This represents only 60% of total employment during the peak year and 13% during 1983. Therefore, the net impact of this scenario would be almost negligible on the area. The population supported by this scenario is small compared with the population of the region.' In region 1, the supported population reaches' its peak in 1979 at 1724, or slightly more than 1% of the 1976 population of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. In region 2, the peak is reached in 1981 with a supported population of 979. Assuming a population-per-household ratio of 2.5 for both regions, the number of households supported varies between 355 and 575 in region 1, and between 177 and 326 in region 2. The maximum amount of tax receipts in one year is $1.3 million gene- rated in 1979. The biggest producer of taxes is the business and occupa" tion tax, which consistently generates approximately half of all tax revenues. The sales tax generates approximately one-third of all revenues 1. Population supported means the number of people whose income is depen- dent upon oil-related activities. It does not mean the number of new in-migrants to the region, since many of the people who will be supported by the oil-related development are already residents of the region. In addition, because these impacts will be spread among many businesses throughout the region, only a few people will be totally dependent upon oil-related activities. Population supported equals the people fully Am supported by oil-related activities. XI-40 Arthur D Little Inc. while other revenues are created by both the statewide property tax and taxes on alcohol, cigarettes, and gasoline. Tax receipts in comparison to the tax receipts of the entire region as shown in Chapter X are quite small, and it appears unlikely that the tax generation impacts of this scenario would significantly affect the fiscal picture of local and state government. Several interesting facts about how Washington's economy operates can be seen in an analysis of Tables XI-11 and XI-12. First, even though final demands accrue to region 1, only 23% of the indirect and induced multiplier accrues to region 1 while the other 77% accrues to region 2. That multiplier impacts are larger in region 2 than in region I can be seen by comparing the total impacts for both regions for 1986-88. The total multiplier effect is relatively small for petroleum-related activities. This is because they employ relatively little labor and make many of their purchases from out-of-state suppliers. There is relatively little employment in region 1 compared to the volume of sales. For instance, during 1980 approximately $192,000 of sales is required per employee, while in region 2 $88,000 is needed per employee. In terms of employment, region 2 benefits almost as much as region 1. However, the average wage level for the jobs created in region 2 is lower -- $10,300 -- than for those supported in region 1 -_ $11@400. This disparity is caused by the comparatively high wage rates in petroleum- related activities. Because the sales impact in most businesses will be very small, we do not forecast any increase in commercial and industrial land as a result of this scenario. The gross amount of residential land required by the supported population will peak at 230 acres in region 1 and 131 acres in region 2. Net demand for land will be only 215 acres in both regions. Given the vast size of these regions, the land requirements are minimal, particularly when they will be spread in residential zones throughout the region. In summary, the impacts of Scenario I on the State of Washington will be minimal. Because the existing refineries are already operating, the only new impacts of this scenario will be an increase in tanker traf- fic to meet the refineries' crude oil needs previously met by oil trans- ported from Canada, and the construction of new berth and dock facilities to accommodate the increase in tanker traffic. We are not incorporating any forecasts of refinery modification costs since it is unlikely that the refineries will undertake such activities before 1985. 3. Scenario II-A - Northern Tier Pipeline without Puget Sound Spur This scenario has a much greater impact on Washington than does Sce- nario I. The additional impact is caused by the construction and opera- tion of the Northern Tier Pipeline. Construction is projected for 1978 and 1979. Beginning in 1980 increased tanker traffic will enter the Strait of Juan de Fuca to bring Alaskan crude to the Northern Tier terminal at Port Angeles. XI-41 Arthur D Little Inc 0 Total gross sales in region I will be $286 million during 1978, compared to only $129 million for the same year in Scenario I. Gross sales in Sce- nario II-A are consistently at least twice as great in Scenario I throughout the forecast period. Gross sales in region 2 reach a peak of almost $130 million compared to a peak of $36 million in that region in Scenario I. The difference in impact is reflected in all the impact measures. Gross employment in the two regions reaches more than 5000 full-time equivelent jobs, while net employment peaks at 4350 jobs. At its highest level, the net population supported by the scenario exceeds 11,800 in 1979. Despite the size of the impacts, the amount of additional land required is still relatively quite small. Only 994 acres of net residential land would be needed in region 1 during the year of peak impact -- 1979. Less than 500 acres would be required during any given year in region 2. In addition, since many of the people who would be supported by this activity already live in the impact zones, the amount of undeveloped land required would be far less than even these numbers would indicate. Due to the diversity of the location of the impacts, it is unlikely that there would be any permanent need for any additional industrial or commercial land development. Gross tax revenues in Scenario II-A will equal approximately $15.9 million in region I and an additional $7.6 million in region 2. The peak year for tax collections will be 1979 in both regions with approximately $2.5 million collected in region 1 and $1.1 million collected in region 2. The biggest component of tax revenues is the business and occupation tax, amounting to almost $1.1 million in region I in 1981 alone. However, in comparison with the total tax revenues of the state and of the counties in which the impacts will occur, the magnitude of the impacts is not so significant as to cause major changes in the financial picture of either thelocal or state government. The information provided in Tables XI-13 and XI-14 is for the high estimates of final demand to the state. In Appendix D, Tables D-8 and D-9P the impacts of alternative final demand levels are shown. However, the total difference in sales between the two sets of figures is minimal. For instance, in 1981 total gross sales in region 1 under the high assump- tion concerning final demand are $242 million whereas under the low assump- tion sales are $225 million. The difference between the two scenarios.is only 17%. The other impacts, including employment, wage and salary income, population demand requirements, and tax revenues, also show differences between the high and low estimates of approximately similar proportion. Because of the size of the Northern Tier Pipeline project, net impacts comprise most of the total impacts of this scenario. For instance, during the peak impact year $3.07 million of the total of $3.6 million in taxes collected from both regions will be net impacts. A similar percentage of the other impacts will be net impacts. XI-42 Arthur D Little- Inc 4. Scenario II-B - Northern Tier Pipeline with Puget 8pur The final demand estimates for this alternative are shown in Table XI-3 while the total impacts are depicted in Tables XI-15 and XI-16. The impacts shown in these tables are for the high estimate of final demands; the impacts corresponding to the low estimate of final demand are shown in Appendix B, Tables B-10 and B-9. The total impacts of this scenario on sales, employment and other measures are very similar to those of Scenario II-A. In fact, total sales in region I over the forecast period differ by only 4%. The peak level of impacts in Scenario II-B is reached in 1979, which would be the second year of construction on the Northern Tier Pipeline. As with Scenarios I and II-A, a greater percentage of the multiplier impacts accrues to region 2 than to region 1. This is easily seen in the listing of impacts for 1986-88 when all of the impacts are generated by the multiplier linkages. Approximately the same population will be supported by Scenario II-B as will be supported by Scenario II-A -- a peak of 8060 in region I in Scenario II-B, as compared with a peak of almost 8300 in Scenario II-A. The largest population supported in region 2 will be 3400 and the average population supported will be approximately 2500. Tax revenues and land requirements will be approximately the same as those in Scenario 2. Because of the small size of the impact of this scenario compared to the size of the regional economy, we have assumed that there will be no need for additional commercial or industrial land to serve the increased population. .Within region 1, pipeline construction activities will be concentrated around Port Angeles in Clallam County. Construction of the pipeline.spur will occur in Skagit and Whatcom counties and the counties of Central Puget Sound. Some construction impacts will be spread throughout the pipeline route, but the economic impact of these activities on any county is expected to be minimal. Tanker traffic impacts will accrue solely to Clallam County since the introduction of the Northern Tier Pipeline will make it unneces- sary for tankers to travel on Puget Sound to Cherry Point refinery locations. Therefore, the only ongoing activities in Whatcom and Skagit counties will be the refining of Alaskan crude oil at the existing refineries. The net impacts of Scenario II-B will also be very similar to those of Scenario II-A. In both scenarios the only non-net impact will be existing refinery operations and their impacts will be the same in both scenarios. The peak net population supported will be approximately 7,580, compared to a maximum gross supported population of 8,060. 5. Scenario III - Northern Tier Pipeline Originating at Cherry Point The major economic difference between this scenario and Scenarios II-A and II-B is not in the total size of the economic impact but in its location. In Scenarios II-A and II-B, much of the construction activity related to the Northern Tier Pipeline would have occurred in Clallam go XI-43 Arthur D Little, Inc. County. However, under Scenario III the starting point of the Northern Tier Pipeline will be at Cherry Point, meaning that Clallam County will 0 not be impacted at all by petroleum flows from Alaska. Rather, the impact of construction activities will accrue largely to the Cherry Point area. Associated with these construction activities will be the ongoing activ- ities of pipeline operation and also of tanker trips since all tankers carrying oil bound for the Northern Tier Pipeline will now call at Cherry Point instead of Port Angeles. Therefore, while the total impacts of this 41 scenario do not differ significantly from those already presented, there would be a major difference in the location of the impacts. Tables XI-17 and XI-18 show the gross impacts of Scenario III for the high estimates of final demand. The gross impacts calculated using the low estimates of final demand are found in Appendix D, Tables D-12 and D-13. Because of the shorter distances required for the pipeline, the costs of pipeline construction and operation are lower in Scenario III than in either Scenario II-A or II-B. However, the extra distance required for tanker travel, and also the probable smaller tanker size used in Puget Sound than would be used in Port Angeles, generate a significant increase in the cost of oil transportation to the Cherry Point off-loading site. Therefore, the total gross and net impacts of Scenario III are smaller than those of Scenario II-A for the initial years 1978 and 1979 but are larger for all succeeding years. For example, the gross sales impact of Scenario III on region I in 1984 is $260 million, whereas for Scenario II-A the impact for that same year is $233 million. Peak gross employment in Scenario III occurs during 1979, the second year of construction of the Northern Tier Pipeline, in which more than 4458 persons are employed throughout the state. This is similar to the employment of 5020 persons estimated for Scenario II. Net employment during this year will be approximately 4122. This and other impact measures are similar for Scenarios II-A, II-B, and III. 6. Scenario IV - Kitimat-Trans Mountain Pipeline This alternative has the second smallest impact on Washington of all the scenarios. Impacts are limited to petroleum and refining impacts and tanker operations. Tanker operations are allocated to Puget Sound port because it is assumed that insufficient docking and ship storage facilities would exist at Kitimat. Because no construction would be required in Washington for this scenario, no construction impacts are included in the analysis., Similarly, since only a small link of pipeline in Washington would be used as part of this scenario, we have not included the pipeline operation costs for the Kitimat-Trans Mountain Pipeline. It is anticipated that these would accrue to Canada. The impacts of Scenario IV are shown in Tables XI-19 and XI-20. Total gross sales in region 1 from 1978-88 are $1,190 million; in region 2 they are an additional $438 million. In 1978, gross sales in region 1 are $96 million compared with $286 million in Scenario II-A. However, by 1985 the XI-44 Arthur D LittIc Inc gap is much narrower: gross sales in region 1 are $176 million for Sce- nario IV and $233 million for Scenario II-A. The much smaller size of the impacts during the initial year is explained by the fact that in these years in Scenario II-A, the construction of the Northern Tier Pipeline is occurring and oil transportation by tanker does not begin until 1980; in Scenario IV, there are no construction projects in 1978 and 1979, but tanker traffic begins in 1980. The employment, population, land use, and tax revenue implications of this scenario are much lower than some of the other scenarios. For instance, in 1985 employment in region 1 is 717 persons and 689 persons in region 2. The population supported by this employment base is 1691 in region 1 and 1626 in region 2. Residential land requirements are 225 acres in region 1 and an additional 216 in region 2. Because of the small size of the economic impact, it is not anticipated that any additional commercial and industrial land would be required in either region. Therefore, no additional land requirements have been forecast. Since the only impacts of Scenario IV are tanker movements and crude refining, a much smaller percentage of the total impact of this scenario is net impact. During 1978 net sales in region I are only 15% of gross sales. Net employment and tax impacts are a similar percentage of total gross impacts. Within region 1, activities will concentrate in Skagit and Whatcom counties. The tankers might be supplied from the ports of Seattle or Tacoma, and it is therefore possible that a greater percentage of the total impacts of this scenario would accrue to region 2 than is indicated in these tables. However, because the point of supply is not known, the forecast of impacts assumes a region 1 supply point. It is unlikely that the tankers would be supplied from Port Angeles since that would require the construction of major facilities unlike any which already exist in that area. W XI-45 Arthur D Little- Inc a 0 0 a !p APPENDIX @, k Of Arthur D Little, Inc. APPENDIX A PETROLEUM: AVAILABILITY AND DEVELOPMENT A. ORIGINS OF PETROLEUM Petroleum is either a gas or a colorless to black liquid which con- sists of several types of hydrocarbons usually mixed with small quantities of other materials. The origin of petroleum begins with the deposition of organic debris in an oxygen-deficient, underwater (typically marine) environment. Over long periods of time the organic debris is converted by heat and pressure to the waxy, fatty, and resinous organic compounds which form petroleum. The organic debris which is converted to petroleum can consist of either marine organisms which fall to the sea bottom or material which is washed by rivers into topographic depressions, such as lake bottoms or shallow seas. Sediment which is eroded from subareal areas and is washed into the lake beds or seas will serve to bury the organic debris; and given favorable geologic processes, the sediment cover will thicken as movements of the earth's crest create a deepening depression containing the shallow sea or lake. As the sediment thickens, increased pressure, temperature, and geological and chemical processes will compact and con- vert the sediments to sedimentary rock. The rock contains the water and petroleum originally buried with the sediment in small pore spaces between the grains of compacted sediment. B. EVOLUTION OF PETROLEUM ACCUMULATIONS There are two criteria for the development of petroleum accumulations, a source rock (marine sediments) and a trapping mechanism which will pre- vent the upward movement of petroleum to the earth's surface. The source rock is typically a marine sedimentary rock such as shale or siltstone which has been buried containing organic debris. The trapping mechanisms are of four general types (see Figure A-1), although only the fault, anticlinal, and stratagraphic traps will occur in Alaskan areas. Anticlines and fault traps result from geological processes which warp and fracture near-surface portions of the earth's crust. Stratagraphic traps results from a lateral change in the permeability of a rock formation. Salt dome traps do not occur in Alaskan areas but are prolific in and surrounding the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producing areas. An essential characteristic present in all traps is the presence of a "cap rock" or a rock which is impermeable and will prevent the upward migration of petroleum. C. PETROLEUM EXPLORATION J There are two phases to the exploration of potential petroleum re- sources. The first phase of an exploration program consists of an indirect probing of the earth's cruse through geophysical surveying techniques. A-1 Arthur D Little, Inc FIGURE A-1 SCHEMATIC OF HYDROCARBON TRAP TYPES Tar L;@s ZZ7 Sa I t VV .3 t e r Oil N N . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . oil 5@ Z' Fault Vdter S31t 'V@vt'@"' Figure b Fault Trap Figure a Anticliiial Trap 0i -7. Li;;-estone oil Oil G and ypsurn Anhydrite Oil 0 Rock Salt ww Salt vv"'e' 0 0 Figure c Stratigraphic Trap Figure d Salt Dome Trap Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. ti 41 41 After geophysical methods have identified potential structural and/or fault traps as specific targets for exploration drilling, mobile drilling rigs begin an exploratory drilling program. 1. Geophysical Exploration The primary geophysical exploration methods involve the gathering and interpretation of seismic, gravity, and magnetic geophysical data which will identify the dimensions of a sedimentary basin and the loca- tion and size of geologic structures, such as anticlines or faults, which are potential petroleum trapping mechanisms. The primary geophysical tool is the seismic survey. Offshore seismic surveys are carried out by research ships as is shown in Figure A-2. Periodic sound waves are generated by explosives or electronic devices towed by the ship. As the sound waves penetrate the sea floor, each successively deeper rock layer partially reflects the sound impulses, and the echoes off of the rock layers are heard and re- corded by the hydrophones which are attached to long cables towed behind the research ship. The recorded noise data is computer processed to print out the profiles of sediment layers indicating the geometry of buried rock formations. Onshore geophysical exploration is conducted by land crews who operate out of field trucks. There are no significant differences in principal between on- and offshore geophysical surveying. 2. Exploration Drilling Exploration drilling programs are conducted subsequent to the pur- chase of lease rights which have been bid for based on the type and size of geological structures identified using geophysical surveys. In offshore areas companies buy leases through a cash bonus bidding system and obtain the rights to explore for and develop oil and gas found on tracts which are generally have a size of three square miles, or 5760 acres. Onshore exploration is carried out by drilling rigs which can be disassembled and transported by trucks to each well location. Figure A-3 provides a view of the principal drilling rig components. Offshore drilling is similar to drilling on land except that marine drilling requires some special adaptive equipment between the drilling rig and the well head on the ocean floor. Also, exploration drilling in offshore areas requires a mobile platform which can provide reasonable stability in spite of wind and wave action on the structure of the platform. Offshore exploration drilling is performed from four types of mobile equipment (see Figure A-4) depending primarily on water depth. Sub- mersibles and jack-ups are limited to shallow waters and are platforms with legs which are adjustable in height. Floating platforms, or semi- submersibles, and specially-equipped drill ships are generally used in water depths exceeding 200 feet. A-3 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE A-2 SEISMIC SURVEYING Sound Generators Hydrophones vap Go o o 77.7-7- 07 7 o o Go Go G Go 0:.. 'G Go - 7N, 0 1. Go .1 to Source: Offshore Technology Conference, 1969 Offshore Technology Con- ference, May 18-21, 1969, Houston, Texas. A-4 Arthur D Little- Inc FIGURE A-3 PRINCIPAL DRILLING RIG COMPONENTS Mast Type Hoisting Equipment Derrick- raw Works 17 @1 Rotary Drive System -@MUcl Circulating System Blowout Preventer A (Prf.-,SLire Control Systern) Tool Joint Surface Casing t Drill Pipe F'kitntermediate C.@i;-,j Holp Orill Collar I N Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. -Direction of Mud Circulation 31-B it A-5 Arthur D Little Inc FIGURE A-4 MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING RIG TYPES TYPO subriseftewe Drill Ship Tyr'ita! rfvtw C-epth tess thi'l 100 100 400# 200 1 DM- 200 1000+# lihmtelicAty unlimited) (theoretically unlimited) Init.-A Cost, 5.10 1570 2550 2040 (MM 111174 S) op"r-, Cost 1015 15-20 2545+ 20-40+ fm 1974 f/&yj Princgo*l AdvaWagitz. ForeFunp,ef of mobile offshore 1-9s. stable; relatively Proven mid-watef depth capability: stable; Fetativiely Good water lepth capat)ility; good mobility. requires Best roobdily. best cargo. W0000 C&paco!v. best sts l3-d-mZWS. and e%l,icted 1,3 Shdilow. calers waters: least niotol,-, but may be urnlable under tovv; can drill inchoting or dynani,c Po%iooning, less stable than t"Nly uockf way; needs 2 fft@" Wr, 0.tkVA mob,ifity, ty)ttom condstions important; limited out soveial weils in singir w tip; continuing rlemaf@d. lick tip when ocieialioy. but designed for severe sef. heo drilling zhere!u.e. mor lo v,-,e look. good (of ev,,e set vicr (e.g.. N. Sea). vic@. conlinuiny demand de%pile high co%t -o,,dmons. VA 41 4. lell J:t' n 13 80" T"- 0 V\ L Ss,a F too, L7, 4- Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. Construction costs of jack-up rigs range between $20-35 million de- pending on the operating conditions in which the rig will be used. When contracted by an oil company, the costs of the rig will range from $20,000-30,000 per day. Construction costs of the larger semi-submersible drilling rigs are $40-50 million, and these rigs will be contracted for by oil companies for as much as $60,000 per day. The costs of a single exploration well in the North Sea/Gulf of Alaska areas can be as high as $9 million, in addition to the costs of the mobile drilling rig, $20,000-30,000 per day plus supporting services such as supply boats which cost up to $4,000 per day. The number of days required to drill an exploration well is not only dependent on the depth of the well and the hardness of the rock formations, but also on pre- vailing weather conditions and can take as long as 120 days. There are several categories of exploration drilling. Exploration wells drilled in areas where there has been no previous drilling are termed 11new field wildcats" and have a success ratio ranging between 7-15%. Ex- ploration wells which are drilled in previously drilled areas are categorized according to objectives, such as discovery of shallower or deeper oil or gas pay zones, etc. The success ratios of all of the categories of exploratory drilling ranges between 15-25%. However, the success ratio used in this report for estimating successful new field wildcat wells in Alaskan offshore areas is 7%. This percentage is based on the fact that the largest and most promising drilling targets identified by geophysical surveys will be drilled first. But because of the paucity of regional geological information in the previously unexplored area, a conservative drilling success ratio is used in the estimate of future petroleum production. If a successful exploration well is drilled and oil and/or gas is found in commercial quantities, further drilling is required by the mobile drilling rig in order to delineate the size and shape of the oil or gas accumulation. Appraisal, or delineation, of the discovery can require an additional three to six exploratory wells, depending on the complexity of the geology of the area in which the field has been found. D. PETROLEUM RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION The development of an offshore oil or gas field requires the design, construction, and installation of a large platform usually fixed to the sea bed, the drilling of development wells, and the installation of facilities which enable transportation of the oil or gas to an onshore terminal. All equipment required to drill and maintain producing wells, separate and meter oil and production, as well as other equipment such as cranes, compressors, a power plant, a helicopter landing deck, and crewls quarters for up to 90 men are all located on the deck sections of a platform which is either anchored to the sea bottom or floating and ,4 held in place directly over the oil or gas field. The weight of the re- quired equipment on production platforms in the North Sea may range between 10,000 to 30,000 tons. The deck loads of platforms will vary 10 A-7 Arthur D Little, Inc based on the maximum number of production wells and the maximum size platform which can be constructed. Several of the largest steel plat- forms have been designed for the North Sea aad are capable of accommodating production equipment for up to 40 wells. The world's two tallest steel latforms are now under construction for offshore locations in the Santa Barbara Channel andk the Gulf of Mexico. The platform to be installed off of California will be 945 feet high, stand in 850 feet of water, and require 19,000 tons of steel for construction. A 1220 foot high plat- form is being designed for 1000 feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico, and the structure will require 45,000 tons of steel for construction. The majority of offshore production wells are drilled from steel platforms which have been anchored to the sea bottom. The platform provides a stable base from which 20 to 40 development.wells can be drilled. Deviated drilling techniques can allow development well pene- tration of petroleum reservoirs located up to three lateral miles from the platform, depending on the depth below surface of the oil or gas accumulations (see Figure A-5). Figure A-6 shows several alternative production platform designs currently being used or tested by the industry. The steel platform is the typical design, although large concrete platforms also have been con- structed for the North Sea. Floating production platforms are used in conjunction with subsea well completions. However, there has been limited experience with float- ing platforms which have been used only for the development of small North Sea fields. Costs of fixed offshore platforms depend on required deck loads and water depths, and platform costs in the North Sea range from less than $100 million to more than $200 million. Platform construction costs for the Gulf of Alaska would be comparable to the North Sea if well pro- ductivities are of the same magnitude and the discoveries are located in similar water depths. The equipment on a production platform is listed in Table A-1 with the approximate cost figures for a large North Sea platform. Higher well productivities increase the size of the production treating and processing equipment required for a platform and, therefore, increase the size and cost of the offshore installation. However, the higher well productivities result in lower investment costs on a unit basis for the total number of barrels of petroleum produced. Prefabrication and installation of an offshore production platform occurs in several phases and locations. Each platform is engineered for the specific well productivities, water depth, etc., of a particular oil or gas field and a steel jacket is designed to support the weight of deck sections large enough to accommodate the equipment listed in Table A-1. Then, the steel jacket is prefabricated at a waterfront con- struction site which has unobstructed access to open water. During assembly of the steel jacket, the required production and other equipment is constructed in as many as 10 to 15 modules which weight up to 1000 tons each. A-8 Arthur D bak Inc. FIGURE A-5 TYPICAL DIRECTIONALLY DRILLED WELLS 40CIC)'- MOO' /'40'- 80' Sea Level 6 50' - 800' Oceari Hoo, 7@7- 77 Directiorially Drilled Wells 0 co Hydrocarbon Reservoir Hydrocarbor. Rescrvoir ...... ..... ........ ....... ......... .... ....... ....... . ......... ........... ........... ....... ........ . .............................. .. ....... .......... Source: Paper by C.C. Taylor, Exxon Company, U.S.A., "Status of Completion/ Proudetion Technology for the Gulf of Alaska and the Atlantic Coast Offshore Petroleum Operations," presented at the Resources for the Future, Inc., seminar, Washington, D.C., December 5-6, 1973, conducted for the Council on Envrionmental Quality under Contract No. EQ4AC003. A-9 Arthur D Little- Inc FIGURE A-6 ALTERNATIVE FIXED PLATFORM CONSTRUCTION FOR OFFSHORE PRODUCTION OF OIL AND GAS CONVENTI-l'-"'NAL, JAC",KLI CONI-FETE PLATFORM GUYED TO"VER TENSON LEG Source: Oil & Gas Journal. TABLE A-1 PRODUCTION PLATFORM COSTS Estimated Costs Percent of Equipment (thousands of dollars) Total Costs Steel Jacket $100,000 68 Oil and Condensate Production and Treatment Plant 22,500 15 Power Plant and Communications 11,250 8 Living Quarters and Helicopter Deck 2,250 1.5 Drilling Equipment 2,250 1.5 Firefighting and Safety 2,250 1.5 Cranes 2,250 1.5 Other 5,000 3 Totals $147,750 100.00 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts. A-11 Arthur D Little, Inc. When completed, the 1900 to 45,000 ton steel jacket will be either winched onto a barge or floated by flotation tanks and then towed by 40 up to six tug boats onto the location of the underwater oil or gas field. Once on location, the steel jacket will be partially sunk and tilted into an upright position before being placed on the sea bottom in the desired location. The steel jacket then will be fixed to the ocean floor by steel piles which are driven through each jacket leg as mush as 250 feet into the.sea bottom and cemented in. 41 With the steel jacket in place, the deck sections and equipment modules will be bsrged to the installation site. The platform deck sections, equipment modules, living quarters, and drilling gear will be lifted sequentially into place. The mechanical and electrical hookup of the installed modules will complete the construction of the platform, and 41 oil and gas development drilling will begin. The prefabrication of a large steel production platform requires approximately nine months to a year following completion of engineering and design work. Installation can take from two to five months depending on weather conditions which are of primary importance during heavy C lifting by the derrick barge. At least one derrick barge will be required on-site during the in- stallation of the platform jacket, deck section, and equipment modules. The derrick barge supports a heavy crane with a short radius lifting capacity of 250 to 1000 tons. Operations of a derrick barge are supported by one to three tug boats which handle the barge anchoring lines and smaller supply barges. During platform installation, the derrick barge serves first to assist in positioning the steel jacket as it is placed on the bottom. Next, the heavy capacity derrick crane supports a multi-ton steam pile driver, rated up to one million foot-pounds, which drives the steel piling to anchor the platform jacket. After the platform jacket has been fixed to the sea bed, the derrick is used to lift the deck sections and modules into position on top of the jacket. The derrick barge also functions as a base for the habitat housing underwater diving teams which participate in saturation diving during underwater construction and inspection activities. Table A-2 provides an estimate of North Sea platform installation costs. Following co*mplete installation and hookup of the fixed production platform, development drilling will begin with one or two drilling rigs in operation on the drillin deck with drill pipe channeled through well conductors in lower decks. Development drilling will continue for at least two years depending on the number of wells to be drilled and the total depth of each well. Average drilling progress should range between 150 to 250 feet per day, and development drilling should achieve a success ratio of approximately 75%. The number of development wells which will be completed as producers will be a function of platform design based on expected well productivities and petroleum reservoir depth. A-12 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE A-2 PLATFORM INSTALLATION COSTS FOR JACKET AND DECK SECTIONS Costs Percent of Item (thousands of dollars) Total Costs Derrick Barge $18,000 60 Mechanical and Electrical Hookup 4,500 15 Tugs' and Supply Vessels 3,900 13 Diving 2,100 7 Miscellaneous 1,500 5 Totals $30,000 100 Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on industry contacts. A-13 Arthur D Little, Inc. Once production has begun, there will be two methods of transporting oil to shore. A pipeline can be 'laid from the oil or gas field to shore, or tankers can be loaded from oil storage facilities located at the oil field. Transportation of natural gas by tankers directly from producing fields is neither technically nor economically feasible at this point due to difficulties with locating gas liquifaction facilities on production platforms and with the design requirements of low temperature, flexible loading hoses to be used in even mild sea states. For oil, shipment by tanker is economically competitive with pipe- lines in circumstances when large diameter pipelines cannot link several oil fields with a shore terminal. However, it is likely that if sub- stantial discoveries are made in the Gulf of Alaska that pipelines will be constructed to shore terminals from which the crude oil will be moved to markets by tanker. Construction of a marine pipeline is carried out by two types of heavy construction equipment, a pipelay, and a pipe bury barge. The most modern offshore construction barges are combination derrick/pipelay barges capable of laying up to two miles per day of large diameter pipe in water depths of up to 600 feet. Down-time factors for pipelay barges are high due to the weather sensitivity of pipelaying operations and will be of particular importance in the Gulf of Alaska. Pipelaying operations are conducted by welding together sections of pipe and then pulling the pipelay barge forward on its anchor by deck winches. The pipeline, which is coated with protective layers of tar and cement, lies on the surface of the sea floor until a pipe bury barge makes a pass over the line pulling a jetting sled. The pipe bury barge houses high compression pumps that force water through jets on a sled which is dragged down the underwater pipeline. The jet sled forces bottom sediment from underneath the pipe creating a ditch into which the pipe settles. Several passes of the bury barge and its jet sled may be required to bury a pipeline in unusual bottom sediment conditions. Mobilization and demobilization costs of a pipelay barge can range up to $1.5 million, and day rates can range from $75,000-200,000, de- pending on pipelaying performance. Pipe bury barges have a day rate contract cost ranging from $60,000-80,000. Several types of support and supply vessels service the larger off- shore equipment. Offshore work boats, or supply vessels, fulfill the primary functions of towing, anchor handling, and cargo carrying. In the North Sea, supply boats of the 4000 horsepower anchor handling class are typically equipped with a heavy duty winch, stern roller, and towing and anchoring gear, and therefore have limited deck cargo capacity. The newer North Sea cargo carrying work boats are over 200 feet long and have a deck cargo capacity of 2000 tons and can carry up to 9000 cubic feet of bulk chemicals. Under deck tankage is in the range of 1400 tons of fuel oil and treated water required for drilling. Costs for the large North Sea boats are approximately $4,000 per day. A-14 Arthur D Little, Inc b p APPENDIX B -1 10 Arthur D Little, Inc SPECIES CHARACTERISTIC OF MAJOR PUGET SOUND UPLAND HABITAT Habitat (upland) Grassland (dry, parkland, fields) Wet meadow (lowland bogs) Riparian (along watercourses) Shrubland (early succession, shrubs and young trees) Broadleaf (deciduous) forest Coniferous forest Mixed broadlead-coniferous forest GRASSLAND Characteristic plant species Name Comment western fescue white hawkweed common beargrass woodland groundsel fireweed brome grass (species) autumn willowweed rattlesnake plantain Idaho fescue northwestern saxifrage Idaho blue-eyed grass upland yellow violet wild radish introduced American vetch perennial pea introduced red clover introduced white clover introduced Queen Anne's lace introduced self heal introduced Canada thistle introduced dog fennel introduced cow parsnip introduced Characteristic animal species (vertebrates) Amphibians (non-dry habitat) Reptiles Northwestern Garter Snake Northern alligator lizard B-1 Arthur D Little, Inc. Birds "Legend: R= resident WR= wi.jitcr resident SR=- smi-mier resident M= migrant C= common U= uncoilunon, R= rare x= breeds in that habitat 0 Breeding Rol,] ti-ve Seasonality Status Abundance rough-legged hawk IVR U red-tailed hawk- R breeds C marsh hawk U lip gyra-falcon WR peragrine falcon R pigeon hawk R U sparrow hawk R C ring-nocked pheasant R. x C black-bollied plover m U killdea-r R x C American golden plover m R hand-tailed -pigeon R U rock dove R x C irourning d.ove SR X C barn owl R X C great hon-,Led owl. R x U snoi%ry owl 1VR R short-eared owl R X C ni-g,hth,1,vjk SIZ x C eastern kIngbird SR X C western kingbird M x C horned lark R x C violet green swallo,..., SR x C tree swallow SR x C barn swallow Siz x C cliff sivallow SR x C black-billed magpie m x C .raven R x U comon crow R x C western bluebird SIZ U mountain bluebird IVIZ x C water pipit WIZ C northern shrike IVR U starling R x C house sparrow R x C western meadowlark R x C red-winged blackbird R C yellow-headod blackbird Brower's blackbird R x C brown-headed cowbird SR x C comibn rcdpoll WR U American goldfinch R x C Savarmah sparrow R x C tree sparrow WR - U lapland longspur WR U snow bunting IVIZ R Arthur D Little- Inc. B-2 Mwinals Legcjid: A= abUndant C= uoiwion Abundance Opossum C dusk), shrew C eastern cottontail introduced species deer mouse A A Oregon vole house mouse A coyote C long-tailed weasel A striped skunk A ,potted skujik A bobcat C black-tailod doer A WET @EADOIV Characteristic long-stoloned sedge common camas broad-leaved shooting stax thrift meadow dCal-I] c'-illas Nget bal samroot valley violet water seJge slough sedge comi-tion rush broad-leaved cattail bulrush yellow skunk cabbage spring-bank clover Sierra rush 5ickle-leaved rush golden blue-eyed grass Douglas aster lady fern leathing grape fern. occasional- fijiieric,3n brooklino cow parsnip common horsetall giant horsetail hedge nettle monkey flower B-3 Arthur D Uttle- Inc Amphibians long toed salamander northwestern salamander, Pacific Northwest newt western toad Pacific treefrog sullfrog Reptiles Northwestern garter snake western garter snake common garter snake painted turtle Northwestern pond turtle Birds Legend: R= resident IVR= winter resident SR= summer resident W migrant C= common U= Uncommon R= rare x= breeds in that habitat Breeding Relative 4e Seasonality Status Abundance red tailed hawk R x C rough-legged hawk WR C golden eagle R x U marsh hawk R x C gyrafalcon WR R sparrow hawk R x C ring-pecked pheasant R x U kill deer R x C common snipe R x C snowy owl IVR R short-eared owl R x C barn swallow SR x C cliff swallow SR x C water pipit WR x C northern shrike WR U starling R C Nashville warbler M C MacGillivwray's warbler SR x C western meadowlark R x C Brewer's blackbird R x C Savannah sparrow R x C vesper sparrow SR x C (Fresh water marsh birds) B-4 Arthur D Little, Ini: Mammals Legend: A= abundant C= common R= rare dusky shrew C vagrant shrew A northern water shrew (bogs) Pacific water shrew A (marsh) masked shrew R Townsend mole A Pacific mole A shrew mole A deer mouse A long-tailed vole R montain beaver A muskrat A (marsh) beaver A (ponds) Townsend vole A Raccoon A mink C (marsh) long-tailed weasel A spotted skunk A river otter C (marsh) Bobcat ? black-tailed deer A RIPARIAN Characteristic plants Red alder Pacific willow black cottonwood Piper willow quaking aspen R Oregon ash paper birch east Sound, north of Seattle salmon berry hardhack red elderbem. creek dogwood bush honeysuckle soft-leaved willow Sitka willow rigid willow broad-leaved cattail water sedge slough sedge long-stoloned sedge bur reed B-5 Arthur D Little, Inc. common rush Sierra rush wapato American false hellebore valley violet stinging nettle creek dogwood Characteristic animals Amphibians Pacific giant salamander long-toed salamander western toad Pacific treefrog western spotted frog Reptiles Northwestern garter snake western garter snake common garter snake painted turtle Birds Legend: R= resident WR= winter resident SR= summer resident M= migrant C= common U= Uncommon R= rare x= breeds in that habitat Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance Turkey vulture SR x U sharp-shirred hawk R U cooper's hawk R x U red-tailed hawk R x C sparrow hawk R x U ruffed grouse R x C mourning dove SR x C barn owl R x U screech owl R x C great horned owl R x C long-eared owl WR x U saw-whet owl IVR U black swift SR Rufous; hummingbird SR x C red-shafted flicker R x C Lewis woodpecker R x C yellow-bellied sapsucker R x C dawny woodpecker R x C easteril kingbird SR x C western kingbird M x C Arthur D Little, Inc, B-6 Traill's flycatcher SR x C western flycatcher SR x U western wood pewe SR x C violet green-swallow SR x C tree swallow SR x C bank swallow M(sand banks) rough-winged swallow SR x C (sand banks) barn swallow SR X C cliff swallow SP x C black-billed magpie __M X C common crow R X C black-capped chickadee R x C white-breasted nuthatch R x C red-breasted nuthatch R U D dipper R (streams) house wren SR x C Bewick's wren R x C robin R x C Townsend's solitaire WR U Swainons thrush SR x C western bluebird SR. x U Golden=crowned kinglet R C ruby-crowned kinglet WR C bohemian waxwing WR U cedar waxwing SR x C northeinshrike WR U starling R x C red-cyed vireo SR. x C wardling vireo SR x C yellow warbler SR x C black and white warbler M R bullock's oriole SR x C brown-headed cowbird SR x C black-headed grosbeak SR x C house finch R x C Lazuli'bunting SR c C Gray-crowned rosy finch WR x C pine Siskin R C American goldfinch R x C Rufus-sided towbee R x C Slate colored junco WR U Oregon junco R C tree sparrow WR U white-crowned sparrow R C golden-crowned sparrow WR C box sparrow R C song sparrow R x C Mammals Legend: A= abundant C= common B-7 Arthur D Little, Inc Pacific water shrew A mountain beaver A beaver A deer mouse A raccoon A mink C long-tailed weasel A river otter C SHRUBLAND (thickets) (shrub successional communities) 4 Characteristic plants sword fern bracken fern salal 4 Oregon oxalis Pacific rhododendron Oregon grape creambush oceanspray creeping snowberry baldhip rose common snowberry salmonberry thimbleberry red alder vine maple red huckleberry ovalleaf huckleberry snowbrush ceanothus California hazel Scowler beltflower trailing blackberry big leaf maple (shrub form, immature) western yew red elderberry Pacific willow silk tassel ninebark western crabapple twinflower lady fern Characteristic animals Amphibians western toad (near water) Reptiles northwestern garter snake .northwestern rubber boa B-8 Arthur D Littkinc. Birds Legend: R= risident WR= winter resident SR= summer resident M= migrant C@ cmmon U= uncommon R= rare x+ breeds in that habitat Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance 9 blue grouse R U California quail R x C ring-necked pheasant R x C downy woodpecker R U black-capped chickadee R c C mountain chickadee WR R common bushtit R x C barn swallow SR x C cliff swallow SR x C house wren SR x C Bewick's wren R x C golden crowned kinglet R U ruby-crowned kinglet WR U orange-crowned warbler SR x C Wilson's warbler SR x C brown-headed cowbird SR x C Lazuli bunting SR x C Rufus-sided townee R x C Harris sparrow WR R slate-colored junco WR U Oregon junco R x C tree sparrow WR U White crowned sparrow R x C golden-crowned sparrow WR C fox sparrow R x U Lincoln sparrows M x C Mammals Legend: A= abundant C= common dusky shrew C snowshoe hare A eatern cottontail (introduced) Townsend chipmunk A Deer mouse A long-tailed weasel A Striped skunk A spotted shunk A BROADLEAF FOREST Characteristic.plants big leaf maple dominant Oregon ash Arthur D Little, Inc. B-9 golden chinkapin red alder dominant Oregon white oak dry sites around Puget Sound .paperbirch. North Puget Sound salal understory species Pacific madrone dry sites (especially east side of Olympic peninsula) swordfern understory species thimbleberry understory species creeping snowberry understory 4 creambush oceanspray understory vine maple understory dominant Pacific dogwood quaking as per black cottonwood wet areas baldhip rose understory bush honeysuckle creeping buttercup red huckleberry understory red current understory Characteristic animals Amphibians western red-backed salamander Oregon red salamander king-toed salamander (near water) Reptiles northern alligator lizard northwestern rubber boa northwestern garter snake most common western garter snake (near water) common garter snake (near water) Birds Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance Turkey vulture C x U sharp skinned hawk R U Cooper's hawk R x U red-tailed hawk R x C pigeon hawk R x U sparrow hawk R x U ruffed grouse R x C band-tailed pigeon R x U screech owl R x C great horned owl R x C vaux's swift SR x C Rufano hummingbird SR x C B-1-0 Arthur D Little- ln(@ red-shafted flicker R X C yellow-bellied sapsacker R x C downy woodpecker R x C eastern kingbird SR X C Traill's flycatcher SR X C western wood pewee SR x C violet green swallow SR X C tree swallow SR x C rough-winged swallow SR. x C common crow R x C black-capped chickadee R x C chestnut-backed chickadee R U common bushtit R x C white-breasted nuthatch R x C red-breasted nuthatch R x U house wren SR x C Bewick's wren R x C robin R x C Swanson's thrush SR x C golden-crowned knight R C ruby-crowned knight WR C bohemian waxwing WR U cedar waxwing SR X C starling R x C Solitary Vireo SR X U Hutton's vireo R x U red-eyed vireo SR x C warbling vireo SR x C orange-crowned warbler SR x C Nashville warbler M U yellow warbler SR. X C myrtle warbler WR U Max Gillivray's warbler SR x C white-and-black warbler M R bullock's oriole SR X C brown-headed cowbird SR x C black-headed gorsbeak SR X C common redpoll WR U pine Siskin R C American goldfinch R x C Rufus-sided townee R x C Slate-colored junco WR U Oregon junco R C chipping sparrow SR X C tlr&e sparrow IVR U white-crowned sparrow R C golden-crowned sparrow WR C fox sparrow R C song sparrow R C Mammals Legend: A+ abundant C= common B-11 Arthur D Little, Inc dusky shrew C vagrant shrew A (wet areas) '%sked shrew R (moist areas) Townsend more A (moist areas) Pacific mole A shrew mole A (moist areas) long-legged myotis C (open forest) long-eared myotis R yuma myotis A (open woods) silvery-haired bat A big brown bat A snowshoe hare A mountain beaver A Oregon vole A C coyote C (semi-open country) red fox black bear A raccoon A (near water) long-tailed weasel A short-tailed weasel R spotted skunk A bobcat C black-tailed deer A CONIFEROUS FOREST Characteristic plants Douglas fir (dominant in seral stands) Sitka spruce wester, redcedar C western hemlock (rare, except in old-growth areas) grand fir western white pine (special zones around Puget Sound) lodgepole pine (special zones around Puget Sound) Pacific yew ( minor element) cascara (understory) salal (understory) swordfern (moist sites) ladyfern (moist sites) licorice fern creambush oceanspray .(dry sites) salal (dry sites) skunk cabbage (wettest sites) Pacific rhododendron (intermediate moisture sites) Oregon grape (intermediate moisture sites) whipplevine starflower waterleaf (moist sites only) snowqueen twinflower (Y bedstraw _,round cover B-12 Arthur D Littk Inc Characteristic animals (vertebrates) Amphibians. long toed salamander near water western red-backed salamander Oregon red salamander western toad near water Pacific treefrog near water western wooding near ponds Reptiles .northern alligator lizard northwestern garter snake western garter snake near water common garter snake near water Birds Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance turkey vulture SR x U goshawk R x U sharp-skinned hawk R x U coopers hawk R U red-tailed hawk R x C bald eagle R x C peregrine falcon R x R pigeon hawk R x U sparrow hawk R x U blue grouse R x C ruffed grouse R x C band-tailed pigeon R x C great homed owl R x C hawk owl WR R pigmy owl R x U spotted owl R x R great gray owl R x R (status uncertain) saw whet owl WR x C boreal owl WR R Vaux's swift SR x C rufous humming bird SR x C red-shafted flicker R x C pileated woodpecker R x U yellow-bellied sapsucker R x C hairy woodpecker R x C Hammond's fly catcher SR x C western flycatcher SR x C western wood pewee SR x U olive-sided flycatcher SR x C dusky flycatcher M C violet-green swallow SR x C tree swallow Sr x C rough-winged swallow SR x C Steller's jay R x C gray jay R x C raven R x C Arthur D Little, Inc B-13 Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance common crow R x C 'black-capped chickadee R C chestnut black chickadee R x C mountain chickadee WR x C common bushtit R x C red-breasted nuthatch R x C brown creeper R x C winter wren R x C robin R x C varied thrush R x C Townsend's solitaire WR x C hermit thrush M x C Swainson's thrush SR x C mountain bluebird WR x U golden crowned kinglet R x C ruby crowned kinglet WR C Bohemian waxwing WR U cedar waxwing SR C northern shrik WR U starling R x U solitary vireo SR x C Hutton's vireo R x U warbling virec, SR x U myrtle warbler WR U MacGillivray's warbler SR x C Wilson's warbler SR x C black and white warbler M R brown-headed cowbird SR x C evening grosbeak R C purple ':,, R x C pine 70 R x C red crossbill R x C white-winged crossbill WR x R rufous-sided towhee R x C slate-colored junco WR U Oregon junco R x C white-downed sparrow R x C golden-crowned sparrow WR C song sparrow R x C Mammals Legend: A= abundant C= common R= rare dusky shrew C vagrant shrew A - wet areas masked shrew R - moist areas Trowbridge shrew A - coniferous forest only) townsend mole A - moist areas Pacific mole A shrew mole A moist areas long-eased myotis R silvery-haired bat A big brown bat A shonshoe hare A Arthur D Little, Inc P-1 A mountain beaver A moist areas) townsend chipmonk A Douglas squirrel A (coniferous forestsonly) northern flying squirrel C (coniferous and mixed forests) deer mouse A Oregon vole A California red-backed vole A (coniferous forest only black rat A (coniferous and mixed woods) raccoon A (near water) Fisher R (mixed forest) long-tailed weasel A short-tailed weasel R mountain lion R (coniferous forest only) bobcat C ? black-tailed deer A MIXED CONIFEROUS/DECIDUOUS FOREST Mixed coniferous/deciduous forest contains a mixture of the elements listed separately under coniferous and deciduous forest and hence will not be given separate, detailed enumeration. Most of the second growth assemblages commonly sited in the study area activity zones are mixed coniferous/deciduous forest comamities. It appears that the earlier or younger stands the tallest vegetation a larger component of deciduous forms, paricularly red alder, vine maple, and big leaf maple. Many of the coniferous (particularly Douglas fir and western red cedar, if present, are young specimens not mergent above the shrubs layer. In slightly older stands, the coniferous appear to be a more dominant element, as they are now mature enough to compare in height to the alders and maples. B-1 5 Arthur D Little, Inc FRESH WATER MARSH BIRDS Legend: R= resident WR= winter resident SR=summer resident M= migrant C= common U=uncommon R= rare x= breeds in that habitat Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance common loon M_ x U Arctic loon WR R western grebe M C red-necked grebe. W U horn d rebe M U harZ Xebe M C pied-billed grebe R x C double-crested Cormorant SR x U great blue heron R x C black-crowned night M x C Heron green heron R x U American bittern SR x C whistling swan M U trumpeter swan WR U Canada goose R x C white-fronted goose M R snow goose WR R mallard R x C gadwall WR C pintail WR C American widgeon WR C shoveler WR C blue-winged teal SR x C Cimmamon teal SR x C European widgeon WR R Green-winged teal WR C wood duck R x U redhead WR C canvasback WR C ring-nected duck WR C greater scaup M U lesser scaup WR C American goldeneye WR C Barrow's goldeneye WR x C bufflehead WR C oldsquaw WR R harlequin duck WR x R white-winged scoter M R ruddy duck WR C hooded merganser R x U common merganser R x U red-breated mergailsei M R surf scoter M R Arthur D Little, Inc- B-16 Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance marsh hawk R x C osprey SR x U sandhill crane M U Virginia rail R x C sora rail SR x C American coot WR x C black-bellied Plover M U semipalmated@plover M R killdeer R x C whimbrel M R solitary sandpiper M U spotted sandpiper SR x C greater yellOwlegs M C lesser yellow 'legs M C American golden Plover M R short-bille&dowitcher M R long-billed qowitcher M C ruddy turnstone M R long-billed curlew M R pectbral sandpiper M C willet M R knot M R dunlin WR R Baird's sandpiper M C sanderling M U least sandpiper M C marbled godwit M R common snipe R x C western sandpiper M C Wilson's pha@arope M x C northern phalarope M U Glaucous gull WR R glaucous-winged gull WR x U herring gull M U [email protected] M x C ring-billed gull IVR x C mew gull I WR U bonaparte's gull M C Thayer's gull WR C Forster's tern M x U black tern M x C belted kingfisher WR x C bank swallow' M x C rough-winged swallow S x C purple marti@ SR x U dipper R x C long-billed marsh wren R x C Myrtle warbler WR U Arthur D Little, Inc B-17 Breeding Relative Seasonality Status Abundance Townsend's Warbler SR x C Hermit Warbler SR x U MacGillivray's Warbler SR x C Black-throated Gray Warbler SR x C Wilson's Warbler SR x C Audubon's Warbler SR x C Red-winged Blackbird R x C Yellow-headed Blackbird M x C Evening Grosbeek R x C Song Sparrow R x C Arthur D Little, Inc. B-18 I 0 0 W4 APPENDIX C Arthur D Little, Inc APPENDIX C ECONOMIC METHODOLOGY I. Introduction The economic approach has been discussed qualitatively in Chapter of the report. This appendix outlines in detail the quantitative relationships embodied in the model. Section 1 reviews the approach and comments on some important characteristics of input-output models. Section 2 analyzes the economic and employment impacts. In Section 3 population and land use impacts are estimated. Section 4 summarizes the tax impacts at the direct, indirect, and induced levels. Finally, Section 5 lists and discusses the data sources used to construct the model. An input-output framework has been utilized to estimate economic impacts of Alaskan oil-related development; Figure I summarizes the model's operating procedure. The procedure is based on two 2-region input-output tables for Washington: one for Pierce, King, Kitsap, and Snohomish Counties as region 1 and the rest of the state as region 2 and the other for Clallam, Whatcom, and Skagit Counties as region I and the rest of the state as region 2. Both matrices are based on the Washington 1-0 study for 1967.* The Washington study includes 51 separate sectors, with most of the disaggregation occur- ring in manufacturing and primary production industries. Because of the *While a Washington state 1-0 matrix for 1972 is available, regional matrices have not been developed. Because of changes made in sector definition and in the manner of sampling, the results of the 1972 1-0 table cannot be used to update the 1967 two-region tables. However, it is unlikely that signifi- cant changes occurred during that time period. C-1 Arthur D Little- Inc Washington 1/0 Table Expansion Two-region 1/0 Table _H Local Region Information Oil-related Final Demand Economic lmp=acts Impacts Population Employment yro les Taxes Land P. is Consumption Households ILM _p !, C-2 Arthur D Little Inc previously small size of oil-related activities in Washington, many of the oil- and logistics-related industries are located in sectors of which they constitute only a small part. Therefore, the sectors may not accurately represent the production function of these activities; it was necessary to add sectors to the matrix which could more closely estimate the impact of oil-related activities. We were fortunate in finding two previously developed 2-region 1-0 matrices for Washington for the sets of regions described previously. The matrix with Whatcom, Clallam, and Skagit Counties as region I was provided by the Oceanographic Institute and was originally developed using the Moore- Peterson technique which is described below. The second table was based on survey data. Utilizing two-region tables, it is possible to trace the inter-regional flows of impacts from the small direct-impact region to the rest of the state and thereby isolate that part of economic activity which occurs in the small region. The estimates of oil-related activity are derived from our assessment of the four scenarios and act as the exogenous driving force of the model. The construct we have employed is capable of separately estimating the impact of each development. These individual impact estimates can then be aggregated to demonstrate the total impact of each scenario, which includes several separate components located in different regions. c-3 Arthur D Little, Inc The 1-0 table can directly calculate industry sales at the direct) indirect, and induced level. Using appropriate multipliers obtained from several sources this impact can be translated into payroll, employment, households$ .and population. These in turn can be translated into new demands for housing, commercial, and industrial areas. Our analysis also incorporates a technique for estimating tax revenues for both state and local government emanating from the increased economic activity of oil-related development. A major problem of the 1-0 approach is that it is a static model, assuming relationships found among industries at a particular point in time are con- stant through time. In the study conducted by Beyers, he found that over a four-year period in the State of Washington there were some significant changes in the coefficients in the input/output matrix.* While a forecast of total sales appears to be reasonably accurate, there were major changes in some individual sectors. This leads to the conclusion that the co- efficients are dynamic in character. There are several causes of these dynamic characteristics: changes in technology, changes in trading patterns as regards import levels, changes in produc@ mix, and changes in relative prices of inputs. Each could cause the input/output coefficients to change. Finally, 1-0 assumes an economy that experiences constant returns to scale. The assumption of such a pro- duction function is a frequent one in the field of economics, but industry *Beyers, W. B., "On the Stability of Regional Interindustry Models: The Washington Data for 1963 and 1967," Journal of Regional Science, December, 1972, pp. 363-374. C-4 Arthur D Little Inc studies have shown it is not necessarily the case. Therefore, changes in the amount of activity in any one industry could well affect the distribu- tion of purchases from its suppliers and thereby change the coefficients. 2. Economic and Employment Impacts In performing the economic impact analysis, we are fortunate that Washington already has a Leontief type input/output matrix. These matrices have been developed by the University of Washington on a periodic basis since 1963. Because of the small size of oil-related industries in Washington, they are grouped into large sectors of which they produce only a small percentage of total sales. Because of the different production functions for the other industries included in these sectors the sectoral coefficients may not properly represent the production functions of the oil-related activities. Therefore, several additional sectors for specific oil-related developments, both petroleum flow related and logistical support, were constructed: Petroleum flow activities* Petroleum refinery construction Pipeline construction Fixed berth monobuoy construction Petroleum refinery operations Pipeline and transfer facility operation Tanker operation *The basis for the estimation of these sectors was the previous work by the consultants to the Oceanographic Commission for their report, Offshore Petroleum Transfer Systems for Washington State: A Feasibility Study, 1975. C-5 Arthur D Little, Inc Logistical support activities Water transportation Pipeline transportation Air transportation Warehousing and whoesaling The methods employed to construct 1-0 coefficients for these sectors are reviewed in Section 5. As mentioned above, the matrix with King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties as Region 1 was developed by the University of Washington from primary survey data.* The matrix with Clallam, Skagit, and Whatcom Counties as region 1 was developed by the Oceanographic Commission from the 1967 state 1-0 table using the Moore-Peterson Technique." That technique is described below. The direct requirement coefficients for the state matrix can be expressed as a function of the level of interindustry transactions and total output of each industry:*** *We wish to thank Professor William Beyers of the University of Washington for making this information available to us. **Our assessment utilized the matrices developed by the Oceanographic Institute and their consultants in their prior discussion. The following indicates how two-region tables are developed using the Moore-Peterson technique. ***For our analysis, I," and "j" refer to any two sectors of the matrix. C-6 Arthur D Littl(@ Inc 2. a) a = Ex] [X]- where a is an n x n matrix of coefficients representing the percentage of total purchases by industry j which are from industry i; x is an n x n matrix of the level of purchases by industry j of the products of industry i; X is an n x n diagonal matrix of total output in each industry. Regional interindustry flows are initially estimated as follows: 2.b) X [a]X where x is an n x n matrix whose elements equal an initial estimate of interindustry flow in region 1 under the assumption that the interindustry relationships in the regions are the same as those in the state; X is an n x n diagonal matrix of sales in region 1; a was defined above in 2.a). The sum of all interindustry flows will equal the difference between total output of each sector in the region and final demands to the region: 2.c) W X I -Y where W1 is a I x n vector of interindustry transactions for region 1; Y is an 1 x n vector of exogenously determined final demands to region 1; X was defined above in 2.b) but is used as a 1 x n vector. c-7 Arthur D Little Inc If the industrial structures of the region and the state are not equal, T 1will not equal zero. 1 n 2.d) Ti E x ij Wi for all j = I to n 1=1 where T I is an I x n vector representing purchases by firms in region 1 from firms in the rest of the state (region 2); 1 x was defined above in 2.b); W was defined above in 2.0. The Moore-Peterson technique reduces the excess estimate of regional inter- industry transactions, T proportionately across all sectors. 2.e) t [T1]EXIT where t is a 1 x n vector representing the percentage that interindustry transactions in region I calculated assuming an equal industrial structure in region I as the state, are greater than the actual level of interindustry transactions in region 1; T was defined above in 2.d); X was defined above in 2.b); used as an n x n diagonal matrix. It is assumed that purchases by industry i are reduced proportionately across all sectors. This assumption is overly simplified but the lack of data does not provide any method for increasing the complexity of the formul ation. 2.f) x [a][I - t 1 where x is an n x n matrix of transactions levels for region 1; a was defined above in 2.a); C-8 Arthur D Little Inc t was defined above in 2.e) but used as an n x n diagonal matrix; I is an n x n identity matrix. The direct requirement coefficients can now be easily calculated by multiplying the x I matrix by the inverse output control totals matrix for each industry in region 1. 2.g) a1 = 1x1[X IT where a 1 is an n x n matrix of direct requirements coefficients for region 1; x was defined above in 2.f); X was defined above in 2.b). Since we assume the same production process for all firms in each industry i, regardless of their location in the state, we must assume that if a 1. is less ij than a ij for any ij combination, that there are imports to the local region from the rest of the state. The import coefficient for imports to region I from the rest of the state can be expressed as: 2.h) M21 = a - a I where m 21 is an n x n matrix of coefficients representing the direct requirement purchases by firms in region 1 from firms in region 2; a was defined above in 2.a); aI was defined above in 2.g). 1 21 These two matrices, a and m , describe the column coefficients for region 1. The have the following characteristic: n n 21 1 2.i) aij = E (M + a ) for all j I to n C-9 Arthur D Little, Inc To estimate the intra- and interregional coefficients from region 2 we proceed as follows. State sales coefficients are first calculated. 2.j) b = IXT IEXI where b is an n x n matrix whose coefficients represent the percentage of total sales of industry i which are interindustry sales to industry j; x was defined above in 2.a); X was defined above in 2.a). Similar sales coefficients are calculated.for region 1. 2.k) b1 = Ex 1T I[X 11 where b I is an n x n matrix representing the percentage of total sales of industry i in region I which are inter- industry sales to industry j in region 1; X1 was defined above in 2.f); X1 was defined above in 2.b). The difference between the sales coefficients equals that amount of sales of industries in region 1 which are interindustry sales to industries in region 2. 2.1) e = b - b where e is an n x n matrix of coefficients equaling the percentage of sales in industry i in region 1 to industry j in region 2; b was defined above in 2.j); b1 was defined above in 2.k). C-10 Arthur D Littk Inc. 1 1 Since we would expect the ratio xij/Xj to be smaller than the ratio xij/Xj for any ij combination, the e ij should all be greater than or equal to zero. If the e ij are greater than or equal to zero and we further assume that industry ij in region I exports the same percentage of its total production to out-of-state firms as industry i in the state, e ij must represent the amount of product produced in region I and sold to industries in region 2. The value of these shipments from region 1 to region 2 equals: 2.m) M12 = [e][X1] where M 12 is an n x n matrix of interregional transactions which equals the flows of interindustry products from region 1 to region 2; e was defined above in 2.1); X1 was defined above in 2.b). We can now define interindustry flows in region 2: 2.n) x2 = x - M12 - x1 - M 21 where x 2 is an n x n matrix of interindustry flows in region 2; x was defined above in 2.a); M 12 was defined above in 2.m); x 1 was defined above in 2.f); M 21 is an n x n matrix of interregional interindustry flows 21 21 1 from region 2 to region 1; M = [m ] [X ]. C-11 Arthur D. Little, Inc. Direct requirement coefficients can now be calculated for region 2. 2.o) a2 = [x 2J'[x - X1T I where a2 is an n x n matrix of direct requirements inter- industry coefficients for region 2. x was defined above in 2.n); X was defined above in 2.a); X was defined above in 2.b). We can define region 2's interindustry import coefficients from region I as: 2.p) M12 = a - a2 ij ij ij where m12 is an n x n matrix of coefficients representing the direct requirement purchases of firms in region 2 from firms in region 1; �ij was defined above in 2.a); 2 �ij was defined above in 2.o). Using the four direct requirement n x n matrices developed above we can construct a two-region matrix of the following form: 2.q) 1 12 a m [z] 21 2 m a This calculation completes the Moore-Peterson process. We used the two matrices provided us to complete the follow ing calculations. We continue to denote the two-region coefficient matrix as the Z matrix with Ind1%,Iduol e1enieiits zkg' where k = 1 to 2n, g = 1 to 2n. Oil-related final demands are supplied to the model exogenously and are disaggregated by region. Let Y 1 represent an n x 1 vector of final demands t C-12 Arthur D Little, Inc. to region I at year 2, and Y 2 represent an n x I vector of final demands to t region 2 at year w. We can construct a 2n x I vector of total final demands in the following manner: 2.r) Y t Y t Y 2 t Total impact of oil-related activities in year t can then be estimated in the following form. 2.s) Rt = (I - Z)_ 1Y where R t is a 2n x 1 vector of sales impacts of oil-related final demands in year t disaggregated into two regions; I is a 2n x 2n identity matrix; Z is defined above in 2.q); Y is defined above in 2.r). More localized impact estimates can also be calculated using the following formulation. The "^" indicates that the coefficients are derived from the (I - Z)_ 1matrix but are at the same location as in the Z matrix. 2.t) Geographic Location Geographic Location Calculation of Final Demand of Impact Required Region I Region 1 i1Y 1 t Region I Region 2 fn 21Y1 t Region 2 Region I fn 12Y2 t Region 2 Region 2 a2Y 2 t One of the major problems with 1-0 analysis is that it does not reflect the timing of the secondary impacts which arise from a given final demand. C-13 Arthur D Little, Inc While there exists no universal estimate of the time required to allow the multiplier effect to occur, recent work has been completed in the state of Washington to estimate the timing of secondary impacts in response to an initial increase in personal income. This work has shown that a signifi- cant portion of the total response will occur as long as four years after the initial stimulus. This work is incorporated into our assessment of the impacts of oil-related development on Washington. The total impact resulting from a final demand is calculated using equation 2.s. The secondary impact is then subtracted from the total impact and is distrib- uted over a four-year period. Final demands are allocated to the initial year. Therefore, to determine the total impacts on Washington of oil- related activity in any year, it is necessary to include not only the final demand impacts for that year but also secondary impacts from that year and the three previous years. The equational specification of this method is shown below in equation 2.u. DISTRIBUTION OF MULTIPLIER IMPACTS OVER TIME Percent of Year Total Impact I (initial impact period) 31.5% 2 31.7 3 16.8 4 14.7 Total 94.7%* *Does not sum to 100% because some small parts of total impact occur more than three years after the year of initial impact. Source: Washington State Economic Model, Washington State Department of Revenue. C-14 Arthur D Little, Inc t 2. u) Ht = E f (R f - Y f) + Y t f=t-3 where H t is the actual impact on the economy of the final demands from year t-2 to t; f is the percentage of total impact resulting from final demand in year 2--Rt--that occurs during year f. Rf was defined above in equation 2.s). In a manner similar to that used in equation 2.t) to measure the total impact of the final demands in any year on each region of the state, the following equation shows the manner in which actual impacts on each part of the state are computed: 2.v) Geographic Geographic Location of Location of Final Demand Impact Calculation Required t 1 1 1 1 Region 1 Region I E f(a Y f - Y f) + Y t f=t-3 t 21 1 1 1 Region 1 Region 2 E f(m Y f) - Y f) + Y t f=t-3 t 12 2 2 2 2 Region 2 Region 1 E f(m Y f)-Y f) + Y t f=t-3 t 2 2 2 2 Region 2 Region 2 E f(a Y f - Yf) + Yt f=t-3 We assume that for each industry the exogenously determined employment multiplier will be equal for both regions and will equal the average state employment multiplier. We can calculate employment impacts in each region in the following manner: C-15 Arthur D Little, Inc 2. w) 1 t 1 12 2 1 1 K t = a E f(a1Yf + m Yf - Yf) + Yt f=t-3 2 t ( 2 2 21 2 2 2 K t = a E f(a Y f +m Y f - Yf) + Y t f=t-3 where K1 is an n x I vector which equals the number of full-time t equivalent jobs in sector i in region 1 supported by Alaskan oil-related development at time t; K 2 is an n x 1 vector which equals the number of full-time t equivalent jobs in sector i in region 2 supported by Alaskan oil-related development at time t; a1 was defined above in 2.g); Y1 was defined above in 2.r); f 12 m was defined above in 2.m); Y 2 was defined above in 2.r; f a 2 was defined above in 2.o); m 21 was defined above in 2.h); a is an n x 1 vector of employment multipliers which express the number of full-time jobs per dollar of sales for each industry; was defined above in 2.u). f To calculate the wage and salary income we assume that for each industry the exogenously determined payroll multiplier will be equal for both regions and will equal the average state payroll multiplier. We can calculate pay- roll impacts in each region as follows: C-16 Arthur D. Little, Inc. 2. x) t 1 1 12 2 1 1 P t 6 E f(A Yf + rh Y f Yf) + Yt f=t-3 P2 6 E (a2 Y2+ ft, 21 YI Y2 Y2 t f=t-3 f f f f t where PI is an n x 1 vector which equals the payroll in sector i t in region I supported by Alaskan oil-related development at time t; P2 is an n x I vector which equals the payroll in sector i t in region 2 supported by Alaskan oil-related development at time t; aI was defined in 2.g); Y1 was defined in 2.r); f 1h 12 was defined in 2.m); Y2 was defined in 2.r); f a2 was defined in 2.o); it 21 was defined in 2.h); is an n x 1 vector of payroll multipliers which express the payroll per dollar sales in each industry; was defined in 2.u). 3. Population and Land Use Impacts Estimates of employment impacts conducted in Section 2 will be the basis for estimating population and residential land consumption impacts. Our analysis is unable to project for the distant future the number of oil- related jobs which will be held by persons who would live in either region C-17 Arthur D Little, Inc in the absence of these jobs. We would expect that there would be some. Our analysis will estimate the number of people and households who will be supported by oil-related development and the amount of residential land they will consume. Population in each region supported by oil-related development can be calculated as follows:, 3.a) 1 1 n I 0t W E Kit 1=1 2 2 n 2 Ot W E Kit) i=1 where 0 1 is the population supported in region I at time t t by oil-related activities; 1 Wt is a ratio of population to employment for region 1; I Kt is the employment in industry i in region I at time t; 02 is the population supported in region 2 at time t by t oil-related activities; W2 is a ratio of population to employment for region 2; t K2 is the employment in industry i in region 2 at time t. t Households are estimated on the basis of population and household size estimates: 3.b) F 01/PI t t t F2 02/P2 t t t C-18 Arthur D Little- Inc. where F 1 is the number of households in region I at time t t supported by oil-related activity; 0 is defined above in 3.a); t PI is a population per household ratio for region 1; t F2 is the number of households in region 2 at time t t supported by oil-related activities; 2 0t is defined above in 3.a); PI is a population per household ratio for region 2. t Residential land consumption will be based on exogenously determined residential land per household estimates. 3.c) L F t t L2 G2 F2 t t where L 1 is the amount of residential land needed in region 1 t at time t to house families supported by oil-related development; a is an exogenously determined estimate of land t consumption per household in region 1; I Ft was defined above in 3.b); L2 is the amount of residential land needed in region 2 t at time t to house,families supported by oil-related development; a2 is an exogenously determined estimate of land t consumption per household in region 2; 2 Ft was defined above in 3.b). C-19 Arthur D Little Inc 4. Tax Revenues Washington's tax structure is based largely on a series of excise taxes; the sales tax and the business and occupation tax generate most of the state's tax revenues. Washington, however, has no state income tax on either per- sonal or business income. Therefore, the local and state tax burden on Washington's residents is approximately equal to the average burden for all states. In our assessment of the impact of oil-related developments, we have con- centrated our estimate of tax revenues on the following sources of taxation: sales and use taxes, busin ess and occupation taxes, special excise taxes, and property taxes. The sales tax structure in Washington applies to most retail sales and to selected personal services. Tax exempt items include personal and pro- fessional services, medical drugs and cigarettes. In addition, a 2% tax is applied to transient accommodations for use in funding stadium construc- tion in lieu of that portion of the sales tax. The total tax rate at tran- sient accommodations is the same as for the general sales tax. Sales tax receipts were estimated in the following manner: 4.a) St = (X t + nt)H t where S t is a 2n x 1 vector of state and local sales tax receipts by sector for year t; t is a 2n x 2n diagonal matrix of the state sales tax rate times the percentage of sales in sector i that are taxable at time t; it is assumed that A ij = Xik for all j and k; C-20 Arthur D Little- Inc T1t is a 2n. x 2n diagonal matrix of the local sales tax rate times the percentage of sales in sector i that are taxable at time t; it is assumed that q ij = T1 ik for all j and k; Ht was defined in 2.u). The business and occupation tax is levied on the gross revenues of varying firms. The tax rate varies by business type but ranges from a low of 0.01% for purchasers of wheat, oats, dry peas, corn and barley to be sold at whole- sale to a high of 1.0% for service and miscellaneous businesses. Business and occupation taxes are estimated in the following manner: 4.b) Bt tHt where Bt is a 2n. x I vector of business and occupation tax receipts by sector for year t; t is a 2n. x 2n diagonal matrix of the state sales tax rate times the percentage of sales in sector i that are taxable at time t; it is assumed that @ ij @ik for all j and k; Ht was defined above in 2.u). Several selective excise taxes are applied in Washington including taxes on the sales of gasoline, cigarettes and alcoholic beverages. Revenues from these tax sources are estimated in the following equation: 4.c) Qt = (V + c + h )(0 1 + 0 2 t t t t t where Qt is the amount of cigarette, gasoline, and alcoholic beverage taxes collected in year t; vt is an exogenous estimate of gasoline tax revenues per capita in year t; C-21 Arthur D Littic Inc c t is an exogenous estimate of cigarette tax revenues per capita in year t; h t is an exogenous estimate of alcoholic beverage tax revenue per capita in year t; 0 was defined in 3.a); t 0 2 was defined in 3.a). t The state levies a universal property tax of $3.60 per $1,000 of property values for equalization of school taxes across districts. The tax rate is based on a 100% evaluation of all taxable property. Estimates of the amount of revenue generated by this source from oil-related development is based on both property values related to business development and expansion and to personal income. 4.d) Dt (P I+ P2) + W t t t t where Dt is the state property tax revenue generated during year t; T is an n x 1 vector of the state property tax rate in t year t times an exogenously determined amount of residential property value per dollar of income in year t; P1 was defined in 2.x); t P2 was defined in 2.x); t Wt is an exogenously determined amount of commercial property value in year t. Total tax revenues will equal: 4.e) 2n Tt (S it Bit Qt Dt C-22 AM Arthur D tittle Iric W where T t is total tax revenues generated in year t; S it was defined in 4.a); B it was defined in 4.b); Q t was defined in 4.0; D t was defined in 4.d). 5. Data Sources This section identifies the sources of information used in the analysis and, when appropriate, describes how required information was derived from both primary and secondary sources. In order to facilitate understanding of the section, the variables are discussed in the order in which they appear in the review of the model presented in sections 2, 3, and 4. A. Additional sectors for the I-0 matrices As discussed previously, it was necessary to construct coefficients for some additional sectors if accurate estimates of logistical support and petroleum flow activities were to be made. Specifically, logistical support activities were expected to be concentrated in the following sectors: 0 Water transportation, SIC category 44; 0 Air transportation, SIC category 45; 0 Durable and non-durable wholesale trade, SIC categories 50 and 51. Petroleum flow activities would fall in the following categories: 0 Petroleum Refinery Construction, SIC category, pt. 1511; 0 Pipeline Construction, SIC category, pt. 1511; 0 Monobuoy-Dock Construction, SIC category, pt. 162-1; C-23 00 Arthur D Little Inc 0 I-etroleum Refining, SIC category 29; 0 Pipeline Operation, SIC category 46; and 0 Tanker Operations, SIC category 4421. Estimates have previously been made of the interindustry relationships for the petroleum flow activities and these interrelationships have been incorporated into an 1-0 model used in a recent assessment of alternative oil transfer systems.* This information has been incorporated directly into this analysis. Because the sectors in which the logistical activities will concentrate are not separated from other sectors in the Washington 1-0 matrix, it was necessary to construct estimates of these sectors from secondary data. Three sources of information were used to construct the estimates: the 1967 Washington 1-0 table; the 1967 Input-Output Structure of the U.S. Economy; and County Business Patterns for both the United States and the State of Washington. To illustrate the method used to construct the estimates of the sectors, we will analyze the steps used to construct an estimate of wholesaling activities. The method used to construct the other sector estimates is similar. In the Washington 1-0 table wholesaling and retailing activities are combined in a single sector, whereas in the national table they are disaggregated into two sectors. Call the wholesaling sector w and the *Oceanographic Commission of Washington, Offshore Petroleum Transfer Systems for Washington State, 1975. C-24 Arthur D Little, 1m: retailing sector r and the combined sectors in the Washington 1-0 matrix C. The transactions table for the national 1-0 matrix indicates for sectors w and r their purchases from other sectors of the economy, while the Washington 1-0 matrix indicates purchases by sector c from other industries. Let the purchases by sector w from industry i be represented as xiw$ purchases from sector i by sector r be represented as x ir , and purchases by sector c from industry i be represented by x ic Then total intermediate purchases equal the following: 5.a) k N X E X. w 1w --N k N X E X. r i=l ir n -W W X E X. c ic where X w is the total intermediate purchases of the wholesaling sector for the national 1-0 matrix; --N X r is the total intermediate purchases of the retailing sector for the national 1-0 matrix; -W X c is the total intermediate purchases of the retail and wholesale sectors of the Washington 1-0 matrix; N X iw is the level of purchases of the wholesaling sector from industry i in the national 1-0 matrix; N X ir is the level of purchases of the retailing sector from industry i in the national 1-0 matrix; W x ic is the level of purchases of the retail and wholesale sectors from industry i in the Washington 1-0 matrix. C-25 Arthur D Little- Inc There are more sectors in the national I-0 matr ix than there are in the Washington 1-0 matrix, e.g., k>n. Therefore, it is necessary to collapse some of the sectors of the national matrix. This was done using the definitions of the sectors for each matrix as defined by the SIC categories represented. Direct technical coefficients were calculated: 5.b aN = XN lj@N for i I to n iW iW w N N --- N air xir Xr for i 1 to n W W --- W aic xic Xc for i to n N where a iw is the direct coefficient of purchases of the whole- saling sector from industry i for national inter- industry transactions data; N � ir is the direct coefficient of purchases of the retail sector from industry i for national interindustry transactions data; W � ic is the direct coefficient of purchases of the whole- saling and retailing sector from industry i for Washington interindustry transactions data; W � ir is the direct coefficient of purchases of the retail sector from industry i for Washington interindustry transactions data; and, all other variables were defined in 5.a). C-26 Arthur D Little Inc- Because there is less leakage in the national economy than in the Washington economy, it is safe to assume the following: 5.0 N W aiw > aiw for all i = 1 to n; N W a. > a. for all i = 1 to n. ir ir We can compare intermediate purchases as a percentage of total sales for both retailing and wholesaling operations at both the national and state level. 5.d) --N N xw + xr Y = XN + XN w r -W -__W W xw + xr Y = xW + xW w r where yN is the ratio between intermediate and total sales for the retail and wholesale sector at the national level; YW is the ratio between intermediate and total sales for the retail and wholesale sectors in Washington; xN is the total sales of all wholesale operations in w the nation as derived from County Business Patterns; xN is the total sales of all retail operations in the r nation as derived from County Business Patterns; xW is the total sales of all wholesale operations in w Washington as derived from County Business Patterns; xW is the total sales of all retail operations in Washington r as derived from County Business Patterns; and, all other variables were defined above in 5.a). C-27 Arthur D Little, Inc Because there are greater leakages in the Washington economy than there N W are in the national economy, it is probable that y > Y . We assume that the greater leakages in the Washington economy are equally divided between the wholesale and retail sectors. Therefore, we can calculate the percentage of additional leakage as: 5.e) YN - YW N Y where is the percentage difference between national inter- industry purchases as a percentage of total purchases and Washington interindustry sales as a percentage of total purchases; and, all other variables were defined in 5.d). We now make the further assumption that production technology of Washington firms in both the retail and wholesale sectors is the same as the national technology. Certainly, there can be expected to be some minor variations, but these will probably be minor, and in addition, no source of information exists which would enable us to make accurate corrections. Therefore, we can assume that any differences which appear between Washington and national interindustry coefficients derive from the comparatively greater need of Washington firms to import from outside the state. @ is an estimate of the magnitude of these additional imports. Using this coefficient we can calculate estimates for Washington direct purchase interindustry coefficients. C-28 Arthur D Li ttle- Inc 5. f) aW = (I - @)a N f or i = 1 to n iW iW aW = (I - 0a N for i = I to n ir ir where a W is the estimated direct purchases coefficient for iW wholesaling operations from industry in Washington; W air is the estimated direct purchases coefficient for retail operations from industry i in Washington; and all other variables were described above in equations 5.e) and 5.b). The calculations of row coefficients is far easier. In this case let us assume the row coefficients for retail and wholesale operations in Washington W are represented as a cj. Utilizing the transactions table for the national I-0 matrix we can construct estimates of national I-0 coefficients for the sectors in the Washington I-0 matrix for both retail and wholesale opera- tions. Let these direct purchases coefficients for wholesale and retail operations be given by a N and aN , respectively. We know that the sum wi wr of the coefficients for wholesale and retail operations we hope to estimate for Washington will equal the total coefficient for combined wholesale and W retail operations -- a .. Any difference between the wholesale and retail C] coefficients at the state and national level can be attributed to the need for Washington industries to import a greater percentage of their intermediate requirements than is true for the nation as a whole. The additional percent- age of imports can be calculated: C-29 Arthur D Little, Inc. 5. g) aN .+ aN aW A wJ rj cj N N awj + arj where A is,the percentage difference between national inter- industry sales as a percentage of total sales and Washington interindustry sales as a percentage of total sales; �N is the direct purchases coefficient of the purchases wj of industry j from the wholesale industry at the national level; �N is the direct purchases coefficient of the purchases rj of industry j from the retail industry at the national level; �W is the direct purchases coefficient of the purchases cj of industry j from the wholesale and retail industries in Washington. Assuming that the production process of all sectors in Washington is the same as it is for the nation and that the only differences in 1-0 coeffi- cients'occur because of different leakage rates, row coefficients for the wholesale and retail sectors in Washington can be calculated as follows: 5.h) W N �wi = (1 - A)a wj for all j = 1. to n �W = (I - A)a N. for all j = 1. to n rj rJ where a W. is the estimated direct purchases coefficient for wj industry j of the output of the wholesale sector in Washington; C-30 Arthur D Little Inc aW is the estimated direct purchases coefficient for rJ industry j of the output of the retail sector in Washington; and, all other variables have been defined above in 5.g). Given these two sets of coefficients for each sector, we now have the necessary expanded coefficient matrix. However, this procedure does not estimate the interindustry coefficients between the wholesale and retail sectors, nor the purchases of the wholesale and retail sectors from them- selves. The method used to make these calculations utilized the row coefficients from the national 1-0 matrix as maximum total and then used a formulation similar to that above and a series of simultaneous equations to obtain the final estimates of these four coefficients. As indicated previously, two 2-region 1-0 matrices were used. Each con- sidered a small part of Washington as one region and the rest of the state as the other region. The specific definition of the regions used in each matrix and their applicability in this study is shown in Table C-1. TABLE C-1 Region I Region 2 Categories of Matrix Boundaries Boundaries Final Demands Applied Clallam, Whatcom, Rest of Oil flows, Pipeline Skagit, and Grays Washington Operation and Construction, Harbor Counties Refinery Operation 2 Pierce, Kitsap, Rest of Logistical Support King, and Snohomish Washington Activities Counties C-31 Arthur D Little- Inc Because the linkages between Washington and the rest of the country are not indicated in the 1-0 matrices,, the models are capable of'estimating only the impact of oil-related developments on Washington. Matrix 1 (see Table C-1) was taken from a recent report completed by the Oceanographic Institute of Washington. The matrix was derived from the 52-sector 1967 Washington 1-0 matrix. In addition, several additional sectors were incorporated into the matrix for petroleum transfer and re- finery operations. The direct coefficients of this matrix are listed in Table C-2. Matrix 2 of Table C-1 was taken from work recently completed at the Uni- versity of Washington to disaggregate the 1967 state 1-0 matrix into a two-region matrix for the four central Puget Sound Counties and the rest of the state. To this sixteen-sector matrix were added the four sectors of air and sea transportation, whoesaling and retail operations. The .direct coefficients of the resulting matrix are shown in Table C-3. Payroll multipliers are explicit in the 1-0 matrices as they include a row for payroll expenditures as one part of total industry purchases and a column for payroll consumption. By endogenizing personal income and expenditures of personal income it is unnecessary to make separate esti- mates of the induced impacts. The payroll multipliers used are those used in the previous Oceanographic study and the 1-0 model for Central Puget Sound. They represent the percentage of total business expenditures that accrue to-payrolls, a percentage that has probably not changed C-32 Arthur D Littic Inc. TABLE C-2 TWO-REGION INVERSE INPUT-OUTPUT MATRIX8 2 3 -4 5 -6 7 -8 9- 10 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 2. Food Products 2._0,049812 1.066899 0. 021556___ 0. 01581.18.0. 002834 0,009293__0.01547T _0.018709_ 0.021058_11.0339,41 3. Forest Products 30.013161 0.02b929 .1.273920 O.OL2300 0.005443 0.006561 0.014669 0.014054 0.041629 0.027928 4. Chemicals _4-6. 062164i-O'. 6-6071 605114 1.0106U6-_ 0.000773'--6.600224-0.000982 --U.000710 _0.000920___'0.00164?_' 5. Petroleum -5_-0.034-082-O..017635_ _0.0-26556 0. (135761 __ I.OU3545 0.009197 0.015648 .0.018342 0.02020_0.026263- 6. Metals 60.002109 0,003335 0.003317 0.003495 0.000473 1.011808 0.052914 0.024311 0.003039 0.004723 .047800 0.018063 0.010709 0.001478 0.00524@i_1.029678 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery -0.013277 011966 .010291 8. Transportation Equipment -6 -0..002766 0 . 0 0 12 2 05_q 010 26!5!j 01, Q 82 0."0843 0.001738 1.023490 0.001799 0.018400 _Atj000753 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 90.015070 0.018657 0.018895 0.013985 0.002571 0.010502 0.022788 0.017173 1.049419 0.023632 3 10. Transport Services i_0 0 i31i__T._03621 11. Utilities 1_1-01. 020377 0,015492 0.0351U5 0 06L387 0 016109 0 4 232 0. 1:k1 96 .0 34V @k4 RIF 12. Communication 12 C..012856 0.010184 0.016253 0.013911 0.002277 O.OOT608 0.014171 0.015307 0.017743 0.023259 1-0.65f$ 0.055t 5_ 13. Construction 1-3-id 64 0 5-4 16 3_6 0 65@3id _0_. a b.088211 14. Trade 14 0.090400 0.081301 0.134662 0 0972@!EL_q,014659 0 0 @612LB 0.10 7@549 01@115251 0.121169 0.166580 15. Finance, insurance, Real Estate 15 0.022320 0.017738 0.032915 0.023202 0.009SGS 0.016370 0.025522 0.027799 0.030193 0.049202 .070781 0.062982 0. 16. services 160 .041304 0 -0. 17. Pipeline Construction 32 A011 0 4 0 0..qkq_001- 0_,000003@_ 0.000004 0.000005 0.000005 0.000007 18. Petroleum Construction 16 0.000002 0.000001 0.000002 0.000004 0.000000 0.000000 0.000o00 0.000000 0.000001 0.000001 19. Dock-buoy Operation dooobc-o-. 000001 0 . 0 0 0-cffs -0. 0 6 C F0 _0! F _U _0 _co 0 0 6-0 . a 0 0 -6 -0. 0 0 WO-111- 20. Pipe-dock Operation 20. 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 00000900@_0.000000 0 000000 0.000000 U.000000 0.000000 0.000000 21. Shipping 21 0.000000 U.000000 0.0000oo 0.000000 fi.oooooo 0.000000 0.000000 U.000000 0.000000 0.000000 - - - ---------- 22. Petroleum Operation 22 0.000000 0.000000 0 . 00 ofj U0 0.n00000 0.000000 o.00olloo O.TlY0000 0.000006-6-.000000 0.000000 23. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 23., 0.108076 0.229586 0.145438 0.025767 0.005056- 0.023088 0.024377 0.027934 0.068360 0.042393 24. Food Products 24. 0.043117 0.047359 0.0616112 0.042379 0.008302 0.0256U4 0.040073 0.047191 0.053339 0.068035 -1 6571 -0673 _-6. 60 2 __6T1 .001468 0.003OUl 0.005280 0.6 25. Forest Products T5_'.0.U696_66 .0.0 -2 47 67 5- 26. Chemicals 26'0.012203 0.005687 0.016814 Lq2.9989 0.00235@ 0,001397 0.003714 0.0030b7 0.004323 0.004540 27. Petroleum 27 0.004142 0.005763 0.005861 0.003470 0.000830 0.002063 0.002813 0.003055 0.004195 0.004713 28. Metals a 800972 .7 0.00142-7-U.-00-1,417 0.0009b6 0.000212.."0.000546 0.000874 0.000846 0.001068 0.001228 29. Fabricated Metals and Machinery .- - . __ - . . @ -- - - _ __6 Ss 0.005979 0.11111174 o.o03369 0.bd?3!@7 -.6'a j@6'1_7-0 . CO-6b .0 o 30. Transportation Equipment 30 _0.000768_. 0.1.101616 U.001162 0.000697 -0.00019.9_0.000429 0.000571 __U.000616__0.000844 0.000998 31. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 31 D.OU9321 O.U12014 U.012988 0.008916 0.002070 0.005317 0.007723 0.008415 0.010516 0.012697 32. Transport Services 32 0.009845 0.016790 0.U19267 O.OU9152 0.0()4414 -0.606028 -0.007065 0.007528 o.612161 -0.015437- 33. Utilities 33 0.020807 0.021b85 0.051699 0.037542 0.009195 0.024880--0.019028--0.017992 0.026524 O.D26539 34. Communication 34 U.010320 0.011615 0.014U66 0.01005b 0.002188 0.005843 0.008832 0.009574 0.011926 U.014341 -6.026172 U.030202 0.0i@0622 6. 004�45--0- OliiR3 CF.017060- 0.028064-- 35. Construction 35 _b. 02j*44 7 36. Trade 36 0.076938 0.089269 0.109450 0.075565 0.026276 _0,044669 0.065430 0.072565 0.088429 0.108788 37. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 37 0.038382 0.039970 0.055094 0.068107 0.011949 0.024541 0.036194 0.039324 0.046430 0.064816 _3_6._664972 0.6101- b. 8ff79__0_.6 @4" 38. Services 3V -6 072826 5025 0.0954725 0,071500 0 0155@63 0 04159 C6-- d-- in f- 39. Value Added Local 39.__ 0,434783 0,343125_0,6396210,492464 _.0 0 781.40 0,296486 0.519933 0.649082 0.645720 0.901637 40. Value Added Other Washington 40 0.2?2598 0.330343 0.383334 0.264906 0.062571 0.157501 0.218500 U.236184 0.302306 0.359447 a. Region 1: Clallam, Whatcom, and Skagit Counties; Region 2: the rest of Washington. C-33 go Arthur D Ljttle- Irx- TABLE C-2 lContinued) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining j` d.-OO1495 0.603957 0.002462 6'003381 6-001?Ul 0.007451 0.007715-*0-*00-0153 2. Food Proqucts - 2-.0.011.170 O..U27405 0.017960._0.033825 0.019213 01028033 0. 013704 0.018860 0.019096 0.001511 3. Forest Products 30.014931 O.U23001 0.0802113 0.025077 0.014891 0.0187U3 0.008670 0.015199 0.015566 0.D00657 4. Chemicals -4 -0. 00 0556 0.00Ub30 (1.002953 O.C01IL12 0.000451 0.0029U3 -0.000280 0.0004L)5 0.000878 0.000020 5. Petroleum -5 __0.012314 0.028561 0.025773 0.034739 0.020873 0.0282U2 _.0.013401 U.018751 0.017927 0.001834 6. Metals b0.002382 0.004316 0.028726 0.003164 0.001915 U.002582 0.001298 0.002229 0.001978 0.0110065 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery -0.0-64421 -0.010941 G.D06166 0,6-11745--d'.005937 -O.UO9102 0.005929 0.0(0272 S. Transportation Equipment a.0010a4 0_U02123 0.002877 ___O. 002964___O. 001468 0.001747 0.000979 0.0U1205 0.001097 0.0(0038 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 90.010580 0.029120 0.080468 0.049478 0.027498 0.056676 0.018740 0.033673 0.083998 0 . OC18646 '10. Transport Services ij-,-0-14432----'0-.00888 .2 0.0095$S---6-.bo9q26'--O.b(lo5i3'- 11. Utilities 11 --le,10780_0.029595 0.023249_0,051666_0.021527 0,[email protected]__0.014815__0.0139'98 __0.01.1557_ 12. Communication 12 0.009304 1.027217 0.015867 0.029526 0.019276 0.045935 0.010b37 0.021554 0.01OC25 0.000422 13. Construction 0.001206- 14. Trade 14 q_..959880 0.169248 0.126666 1.175342_ 0.129745_0,143248 0.077714 0.094763 0.084067 .0.002296 15. Fl.nance, Insurance, Real Estate 15 . 0.019265 0.043114 0.029136 0.0b4682 1.057781 0.041960 0.017892 0.022158 0.021529 0.000609 -4-* .101150 0.075281 0. 123129-0. [email protected](liT--'O.'OOi797-- 16. Services 16 .0.616i0il 6W611 3 -j. i 16 4 6 17. Pipeline Construction 17 __c, 0 Q9_QQ_4_k. y@o U0T 01.000005 0.0110007 0.00oo05 0.000006 1.000004 Q.000005 O.OOOC104 _U.01)3001 18. Petroleum Construction to 0.000000 U.000000 0.000001 0.000001 0.000000 0.000001 0.000000 1.000000 0.000(101 0.0110000 --- --- -6.000007 1.000(10 19. Dock-buoy Operation 3.9 0.660005 0.000009 0.000006 0.0U0010 a . a a o 66 1-0-.-0--0- -0 -0 a -80-.-O-,o a a a ti 6- 6-. 0 1) 610 0-1- 20. Pipe-dock Operation lq@-@PL@towo@00 0,000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0 0000 0.000000 U.000000 0.000(100 1.0()0000 A& 21. Shipping 21 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000(loo 0.01)0000 22. Petroleum Operation 22 0.000000 U.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 U.000000 0.000(100 0.0()0000 23. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 'k4_@ _0A9tj862 0 @ 04 IL4 0.0448UO 0.044373 0.030221_0.038061 0.022121 0.029760 0.028630 0.004756 24. Food Products -24 0.053616 0.069247 0.047534 0.072027 0.051458 0.061655 0.038459 0.048368 0.041782 0.008960 25. Forest Products '25 a 6 a 0 . 0 0 8 4 9 6 j-. 0-0 C"j;-6.-0764 f-4 7 -6 -.6 b yt@@ j- ij@ j ijy- 1-CF9 3 17- -6.-d 6 80 4 7--- C. 6-Iii-kie - 28. Chemicals 1OL-0.002583 0. 03382 0.009491 0,004956 0 002603 0,006850 _0,001946 0.003181 0 . 0 0451.1t U . 0*0430 77. Petroleum 27 0.003072 0.004484 0.003749 0.005211 0.003923 0.004535 0.003233 0.005859 0.006396 0.00127i 28. Metals 4-8--i-. 6-0-6-8-5 1 - -0.0 61-2-6- a---D-.- 'ca- 12 ?,1-0 . 0-0 13-6 9- -0-.0-05724 -- 0.0031155 --. a. -a-I.)0. 37e 29. Fabricated Metals and Machinery --a 0II8510ts 6.006090 -.007761- '-6.028328----c-.-6F1#AgQ4- a - 30. Transportation Equipment 30 0 OB0635 0.000771 0.001056 0.000794 0,000907 0,000691 0.000848 0 . 000675 0.030272 -.0,000903 - 31. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 31 o.008195 0.012376 0.(109743 0.0143100 0.011020 0.012511 0.009018 0.015482 0.0191154 0.033079 32. Transport Services ii- 0-*'007652 0- UL08"57 0.011252 0.013027- O.OU949U 0.610624-'-0.009987- 0.009767 0. 00 8046 O.OD2631- 33. Utilities 33 0.055206 0.026523 0.021562 0.033896 0.021504 0.029262 0.015638 0.020111 0 . 0 17239 0.056421, 34. Communication 54 O.U08926 0.U145b9 0.0109U8 0.016840 O.OL2532 0.417402 0.010330 0.012066 0.0098U5 U.003624. 35. Construction 367 a61�i;[email protected] 0.0 -3.I-78 -60,.024.259 ---- 0.0.2-77 -16 0..02-9554 .. --- 0.024657 - 0.. D20:587 0.00905 1T 36. Trade 06--9,064755 0.206728 0,083850---0,120613 0.069505 0.105426 O..075536_._-0.087713_ 0.072-576---0.0-24221-- 37. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 37 D.U33763 0.059448 0.043693 0.0725513 0.066945 0.059073 0.036844 0.044092 0.041555 0.0093511 38. Services 38 .101553 0.078950 0.1208b4 0.088898 0.109307 0.079978 0.104906 0.080519 0.020305 39. Value Added Local @90 72450 0@99995 0 0 704 0.535102 0.481@585 0.0124111 40. Value Added Other Washington 40 0.248375 0.347641 0.2?7892 0.4o6865 0.310846 0.354T22 0.251381 0.317144 0.261732 0.110991. C-34 Arthur D Little IrK. TABLE C-2 (Continued) 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 I . Agriculture - Forestry - Mining -1 0 0 bt7 is O.UU0445 U.000706 0 .0006U5 0.0un669 0.0005ol 6.000390 U-000466 -0.000595-o-.00651-0 2. Food Products 2__ 0.Ij05744___0.UU3205 0.012095 0.013377 0.015692 0.011673 0.009147 U.010923 0.014231 0.012449 . 3. Forest Products 3 D.U033115 U.OU2213 0.000968 0.001309 0.003098 0.000913 0.0001,39 U.UO0825 0.000980 0.1100871 4. Chemicals -4-- 6.000181 0 . 0 (i U4 7 1 U . 0 0 0 083 0.000056 0.000080 0.000123 0.000045 '0.000058 0.000056 0.000060 S. Petroleum --5 @ D.127582 0.007725 0.024339 0.016496 0.025911 0.020567 0.012240 0.024282 0.015348 0.015969 6. Metals 6 0.000427 0.000429 0.000117 0.0001?9 0.000144 0.00IJ143 0.000081 0.000097 0.000689 0.000342 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 7-' -6.001347-0 *060995 0.000655 0.00U68? 0.000822 0.00066i--d-.0'00477'--0.000578 0-.00 -0747 0,.000701 8. Transportation Equipment -k-0.00.0587Ui000191_ 0.000058- 0.000051 -0-. 0 9-0 0 7 0-- 0 . 010 0 1) 5 8 O..-0-0.0040--O.OO0053@__0.000054_U.00005@4 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.1103604 0.002310 U.000448 O.OU0407 0.000504 0.000420 0.000282 0.000352 0.000480 0.000409 10. Transport Services i6---' 0 -61086 U02099 0.601082 0 . 0 U08bt .001122 0.000992 0.000585 0. 00690 i--6-.-606647 --6. od 6665 11. Utilities it ..005665 _0,013968 0.001006 0.000749 0.001034 0,001781 0.000550 0.00U928 0.000879 0.000732 12. Communication 12 G.U02705 0.001975 0.000312 0.000253 0.00031.5 0.000305 0.000176 0.000227 0.000281 0.000244 - -66 -5 -660746-6-00b761-0.0607d7- 13. Construction 6666-9@6-0- 6u05j-6- -65i --G. 14. Trade 1@ 0,922999 0.01.4060_ 0.001893_ 0.001655_ 0.002005 0.001805 0.001111 0.001453 0.001748_0..001533__ 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 15 0.007114 0.010366 0.000623 0.000504 0.000654 0.000582 0.000351 0.000504 0.000538 0.000487 16. Services i-C-0 . 6-P45@-C. 6V61 0-0 -.66i 1;@1-6-.- 0-0 -00 1 -.0 di 5,6,[email protected] 969-- d.-O-0 1-2-8-2 0'.-0-0147-0-0-.-001-369---- 17. Pipeline Construction Y.-99999 IL-9. 09CL014- 0.09 0 113 00 0 1 U.000 000007 0.000007 0.0000 8 0 000009 . - 0-0 9-4 - --.-0-. 18. Petroleum Construction is 0.000000 U."0000 0.000002 0.0000U1 0.000003 0.000135 0.000001 0.000000 0.000001 U.000001 19. Dock-buoy Operation ig- 0 i--u . 6 6 6 6 -6 1 0 . -0 0 b-6 i 6 66 0 1-4 b- ood Co i -5!@-F @ 5 oo-ff-o .-iico 6 i 6-0-5-d diiii--676 b-cd i i 4 -.6 do- 6-13- 20. Pipe-dock Operation 20 0,904797 0.000000-0,000000 0,0000 0 0'.000 00 0.000000 0.000000 0.000OU0 U.000 00 21. Shipping 21 1.000000 0.039850 0.000000 0.000a00 0.00nooo 0.000000 0.000000 U.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000i-60-1.6-0-66-6-6-0.60-6-0-6-6---O.-66- 666-6--6- -6 . 6- - 0@ 6-- 22. Petroleum Operation 22 -0--d-666 23. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 0.q05229 IpA32501_ Qt27 753 0.160243 039757 0.032775 0.044111 0.038293 0.041716 24. Food Products '241 0.020618 0.009078 0.105405 1.126261 0.107027 0.079394 0.065478 0.070780 0.075817 0.086493 25. Forest Products 2 @ 0.0@4WI ijoa@ffj 0 ji- 6i 0.biI2@@-6.0@Wi .62Y691 '26 O.,001437_0,003506 _0,016169 0,006915 1,041264 0,005272 0-002964 0.005424 0.064406 26. Chemicals - -_.0,022955,._._ - -- - '27 0.125080 0.005812 0.019495 0.015356 0.021272 0.016610 2.017848 0.010776 0.012068 0.012966 27. Petroleum 28. Metals - -3155-0-616-096 2*111-- -0-.666isi 065374- fbi@0-6"9- C.0025U--f-.6i351iF-b.06 3 j- I -jj jr 1-- 69- 29. Fabricated Metals and Machinery -0.0UZIU4 0.014889 0.060663 -6.02i0269--6.01Si649 4.611049 .01 99 3 7 2 16-38 30. Transportation Equipment 30 0.005655 0.00(.1395 U.002942 __0.002629_ 0.004509 U.002575 0.002580 0.002327 0.002870 1.024602 31. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 31 0.00541b 0.0113589 0.028867 0.033996 0.069595 0.029478 0.025120 0.02T701 0.036512 0.031425 32. Transport Services 3i---0.40939@ 0.002241 0.030836 0.0469130.08917? 0. 031874----d *039555-0 *030TI-O"023745 -0. 023509- 33. Utilities 33 0.013747 0.016246 0.046734 0.042640 0.076710 0.106475 0.050842 0.086187 0.051118 0.045099 34. Communication 34 0.005401 O.UU2556 0.028072 0.026555 0.038389 0.0306bl 0.022008 0.0250b3 0.029446 0.031255 35. Construction 32i --- 6.614815 -'6.00b8b4 U.073095 0 . 0 6 7 2 b-8 6'i-6600-0- 6 613 3 1;- 0-.07 2 117 --6-.'0 7 2 4 7 3 6.-d 7 62 26 0. 0 8 7 0 72 36. Trade 36 0 . 0 4 5.4 3-8 _ 0 . 0 2 U 9 0 6 ___U . 2 12 174.. _O . 2 113 5 5 0 . 316180 -0 2 3 48 13 _O 2 8 4 8 3 3_ 0 . 2 0 5685 0.220628 0.2454?0 37. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 57 0.023717 O.OU9646 0.075910 0.071646 0.112615 0.082291 0.073650 0.075676 0.08141,19 U.086717 38. Services 36'-- -6.035611- 0.0lb998- [email protected]'44ii�- 39. Value Added Local 39 0.130079 0.07b89Q 0.007679 0.007117 0.008768 007467 0.004864 0.006512 0.00?451 0.006?50 40. Value Added Other Washington 40 0.182016 0.073867 0.910967 0.857527 1.347723 1.038311 0.862932 0.928301 0.997865 1.142276 C-35 Arthur D Ljttle- Inc TABLE C-2 (Continued) 31 32 33 34 35 -36 37 -38 39 'toc 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining FY -0-0-2-5-5-3-1 U-.0-0-0934-0.4-0-1026 0.0 -0.1203 .0,00lb49 (1.00153 .4 -0.001532- 0.001433 -0 006214-6 00124"i 2. Food Products 2 0 406691 0.o40364 0.047711 0.029124. --- 0. -- @O.U,716b!5 0.023995 0.0jk83b4 0.0369620.036760_0.034615_ 3. Forest Products 3 0.012758 0.00109 0.001846 0.0uj9t)(. O.OU4016 0.002318 0.002256 0.002obs 0.033429 0.001981. 4. Chemicals -4' 0.06-6369 0.000125 -0.000117 0.-000131 0.000107 0.000142 0.000147 0.000161 0.000992 U . OOU 149 5. Petroleum '-5. -0-U38037 0.054445 0.030998 0.1155010 0.026603 1).039511 .0.038146 0.055330 0.045797 0 . 03811% 6. Metals 6 0 . o n 1 39a o.uuo2i6 0.000214 O.OU0249 0.000362 0.000272 0.000279 0.0002b4 9.004527 U.0002511 7-- G - 0 IOS10@- -0.601261 0. U612b5- 6.001468 0..001964 u 001863 01.001866 -0.001740 0.01447b U.00152) 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 8. Transportation Equipment a-- 0.9!@-P541_1) - 000115 0.000105 0.0110119 0.000106. 0.000134 0.000138 0.000123 0.003693 0.00013) 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.007420 U.OU0737 0.000746 0.0008b3 0.000975 0.001028 0.001117 U.000957 0.039166 O.CO0896 10. Transport Services 6.0111912 0.025627--d-.-0U184D-- 11. Utilities 'A-10.'09:t06@___j.001730 0.002065 _0,001627 0,00.1510 0,001937 0.001881 O.UO1780__ o.o423720.001703 12. Communication '12 0.004122 0.000479 0.000469 0.000540 0.0011588 0.000634 0.000681 0.000590 0.032938 0.(100560 13. Construction -60i775 .001613 (i--06i93iF--o-.001728--o.141.683---O 00162 6-6-6 Zi7i---o Yti - C. -6 i U 06i546 iiol 7 .14 0.0321-32 0.003068-00002957_9093385 0.004202 0.004178 .004290 0.003862 0.294072 0.003524 14. Trade - .-- --- . . --- - - _- - -0 . -_ - . __ - 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate '15 0.007279 0.001102 0.000923 0.001054 0.001131 0.001246 0.001458 0.001157 0.065448 0.001104 It 16. Services .002535 0.002565- 0,002775 0.002847 0.0o3337 2@ 6-.Oil 4 O@ 0 (035 0 0.ci-0316 --b.1:6;04'@ 0 009886- 17. Pipeline Construction ;Q-0 -90"17 .. 0.00-0016 -_O..000@0-17-_O.Oooo.19._-0,000011__0.000020 0-.000021_0,000018 0.000012 0,;)00022 18. 4troleum Construction '18 0.000001 U.000001 0.000001 0.000001 0.000002 0.000001 0.000001 U.000002 0,000001 0 . 00000 1 19. Dock-buoy Operation -6- - --0.-600 02C-6. 0-666ii!9 -6 'i ii7 0.650026 .'66 6*0 2 5 * 49-L-0@-9 9@00-0-!L-0- 00 0 0 0 0-0-0 0 G 0 0 0-- 0 . -0 0 0 0 U 0-0. . 0 0 a 0 0.0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000000 U.0U0000 0.00()000 U.'300000 20. Pipe-dock Operation - -- --- - - ------- 21. Shipping '21 0.000000 U.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.00(30uo 0.3000co 22. Petroleum Operation '22 0.000000 0.000000 0.00000D 0.000OU0 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0. 0 0olluo 0.0000co 23. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining JA-0,1-0-q-41L Os_01_5915 0.082331 0,09232-7__O-.079.9?9._.0.098190_0,101@485 24. Food Products *24 0.170215 0.1b9022 0.169360 0.190821 0.114099 0.200979 0.206479 0.184835 0.11,3320 0.2164i@() 0.o530.35 0.054297 0.104394 0.057901 0. .050498 0.01576 25. Forest Products '25 0.070717 0. 08@9-70 '26 0.010175' 0.007697 _0.007779 0,007399_0.014299 _0.009553 0.008096 0.012232 0.005416 0.0080'.0 26. Chemicals 27. Petroleum '27 0.027921 0.044055 0.025445 0.028729 0.0212bl 0.032283 0.031247 0.028868 0.007234 0.0313(.4 28. Metals '28 -0.007160 0.007466 0.0075119 20. Fabricated Metals and Machinery -o.0;266b9--0.63i267'0 0.-0472?7 ll,dazlk53 30. Transportation Equipment 30 0.005317 U.02OC69 O.DU5448 0.005745 0.005049 0.006788 0.006280 0.00543,9 _0.001456 0.006469 31. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 31 1.089764 0.054500 U.060676 0.071969 0.105833 0.094624 0.094160 0.088878 0.019911 0.073465 32. Transport Services jj-- -0 . b6e@66 -'-1 066404 0.0519UI 0.o49o94 0 .0 5402 7 0.05800 * 0.058118 0-048099 -0.017728 0-054349- 33. Utilities 33-- -0.103075 -0. 079974 1. 225554 0.097445 0.065B69 0,116164,@-0.105074--,0.106644.. 0.040452 0. 10131" -- 34. Communication 34 D.U59228 0.055849 U.056696 1.069543 0.042394 0.1.176884 0.075246 0.093634 0.021980 0.0694$1 36. Construction '6.163691-- 0.102936 -U.@6062-1 -1.113260- 6.05953-6-.-i212719 -0.2:84254---0-.043424 0.216059 36. Trade k6-0.465372 _0.436672 0.479079_.0.540,603 0.348512 _1_.565538 0,593561 0.516422 0.17'5249 0,.608775 37. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 37 0.166891 0.169034 0.172960 0.192289 0.219847 0.218627 1.254600 0.192475 0.0512716 0,.205773 16 38. Services 36---b-.647931 --d--.-3o9688- 39. Value Added Local 39 0.156039 0.013697 0.013007 0.01476#3 0.017995 0.018087 0.01a367 0.016776 1.6118726 0@415433 40. Value Added Other Wahington 40 2.104104 1,'J99b90 2.254059 2.521318 1.483883 2.564279 2.723037 2.373884 0.556854 2,862836 b. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Region 1. c. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Region 2. Source: Oceanographic Institute of Washington. C-36 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE C,3 TWO-REGION INVERSE INPUT@OUTPUT MATRIXa 1 2 3 4 5 -6 7 -8 9 10 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 1 1.056791 0.111408 0.031605 0.005811 0.003774 0.020609 0.006361 0.001549 0.001619 0.009323 2. Food Products 2 0.112723 1.11)(3252 0.046286 0.0413Ul 0.026602 0.041323 0.041191 0.010917 0.004475 0.068915 3. Forest Products 3 0.016541 O.Ok9824 1.222864 0.012218 0.009618 0.010043 0.013468 0.002760 0.002885 0.013847 4. Chemicals 4 0.015388 0.007990 0.023692 1.057795 0.006216 0.006820 0.006797 0.002435 0.001957 0.004976 5. Petroleum 5 0.010430 0.004294 0.006JUI 0.007905 2.004237 0.0026UO 0.003227 0.000629 0.0006US 0.035446 6. Metals 6 0.000980 0.001817 0.001923 0.002128 0.000474 1.013430 0.040268 0.002531 0.000167 U.000874 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 7 0.010662 0.066625 0.018987 0,016277 0.00401i-'-0.014658 -1.034o66 0.004184 ii.oo1747- o.607728- S. Transportation Equipment 8 0.004184 0.001468 0.001659 0.001199 0.000757 0.001240 0.001902 1.006416 0.000149 0.002851 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.027177 0.020577 0.018157 0.014948 0.008945 0.025940 0.022834 0.004276 1.004060 0.018923 10. Air Transportation Services 10 0.029739 0.03U593 0-.032699 0. 053885--C-0 19408- 0.034740---0.024430- -0.-005069- 0.005452 -1-.0968587- 11. Utilities 11 0.031906 0.024670 0.041761 0.076981 0.030657 0.058065 0.031325 0.005997 0.003564 0.031831 12. Communication 0.029798 0.019809 0.022286 0.022492 0.011391 0.019208 0.021738 0.005727 0.002620 U.033018 13. Construction '13 0.010005 '0.00b528 OaO8369 0.008350--C.009242 0.-007647-0-.006067 0.-001660- 0.000717--T.6-12583-- 14. Retail Trade '14 0.182286 0.120729 0.146190 [email protected] 0.039138 0.014725 _0.186740__ 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate '15 0.077396 0.115b3lill 0.067462 0.058340 0.045860 0.061242 0.061226 0.015496 0.006637 0.084057 Is. Services '16 0.167128--0.106583 0.126295'-0.127619--o.-075486 -0.119739'--0.130035- 0.032648- Cjo 14 0 2 9 0-. 1-67M- 17. Wholesale Trade 17 0.054466 0.040214 0.058114 0.043386 0.026732 0.056558 0.035767 0.018725 0.026936 0.036015 18. Water Transportation Services 18 0.009536 0.005642 0.018304 0.004004 0.002063 0.006111 0.007602 0.001019 0.002322 0.004742 19. Drilling Platform Construction 19 09000012- 0 . 0 0 0 r, 0 8- 0-. 0 0 0 0 10- -0 . 0 0 0 0 10----0 . 0 0 0 a 06--- 0 .-0 0 0 0 69-0-.0 0 0-0 10--0-.0 0 0 0 03- 0 .-0 0 0 0 0 0-0 0-0-13 20. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 20 0.115107 09176295 0.021252 0.018263 0.010923 0.041292 0.017733 0.004658 0.003651 0.024868 21. Food Products 21 0.024548 0.023623 0.016502 09014163 0.008867 0.015848 09013589 0.005948 0.002117 09019422 22. Forest Products 22 -0.009049- 0.008026- 0-* 046224--o- '006048--0.0 03902--0-.0 06256--0 .0059i6--0-. 00 1651-- --() .000838---0 .-0 0793917- 23. Chemicals 23 0.002494 0.002857 0.001770 0.001252 0.000746 0.001921 09000974 0.000558 0.000555 0.000676 24. Petroleum 24 0.034294 0.022292 0.024626 0.023460 0.016336 0.018106 0.017028 0.004606 0.002228 0.026036 25. Metals 25 09000240 09000459 0.00OZ34 -0.0u0189 0.-000075-- 0.000801-'--D-.-008183-0-.000947-- D-.-00004&--U-.000YwS- 26. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 26 0.001527 0.001614 0.001370 0.000944 0.000575 0.001247 0.000797 0.000393__0.000344__0.000925 27. Transportation Equipment 27 0.000953 0.000170 0.000099 0.000048 0.000028 0.000070 0.000047 0.000032 0.000012 0.000207. 28. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 28 0. 003115 0. 003277 0.002479-0 1472 -0-.00056T-D.'-I)00%23---v. VOT93117- 29. Air Transportation Services 29 0.027350 0.01b396 0.018306 0.018459 0.010640 0.o19138 0.013347--0.002814 0*.002996 -0.01T965-- 30. Utilities 30 09014916 0.012946 0.011646 0.010708 0.005995 0.010802 0.009359 0.002699 0.001330 0.012980 31. Communication 31 0.003782 0.004297 0.0024b7 0.001818 0.001078 0.002393 0.001580 0.000604 09000470 0.005059 32. Construction 32 0.001907 0.002006 0.003080 0.000994 0.000608- 0.001156 0.000908 -0.000300 0.000181---09001265- 33. Retail Trade 33 0.033543 0.035362 0.017053 0.012840 0.007561 0.016043 0.011707 0.005909 0.003094 0.014202 34. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 34 0.009425 0.010433 0.020485 0.005733 0.002778 0.005732 0.004129 0.001459 0.001039 0.006647 35. Services 35 0.023479 0.027303 0.015204 09355- 0-.003429--O.-002595-O.-CE4-536- 36. Wholesale Trade 36 0.021629 0.020263 0.023311 0.014994 0.008854 0.023509 0.010635 0.008069 0.008753 0.005754 37. Water Transportation Services 37 0.006398 0.004142 0.011286 0.002981 0.001648 0.004183 0.004997 0,000769 0.001414 0.003901 38. Drilling Platform Construction 38 0.000002---0.0o0003 0.60oool 0-. o 0 a-oFo 1-0 --ti`o 60 o 17-0 -0-6'0"n 1-6 -. bwaay-v. 0 0 0 0 0 0 --b-.-o 0-0-0 0 V--U-.0 0 00w 39. Value Added Local 39 1.231423 0.8006691.0470260.962527 0.622037 0.935205 0.962954 0.255945 0.099446 1.303036 40. Value Added Other Washington 110 0.212732 0.255739 0.118657 0.059295 0.052904 0.120219 0.076788 0.027843 0.021525 0.098016 a. Regionl: King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties; Region 2: the rest of Washington. C-37 Arthur D Little 1rx- TABLE C-3 I[Continued) 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 is 19 21) 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 1 0.008471 0.009441 0.010887 0.009542 0.009485 o.oo8o59 0.008661 0.005820 0.-0033213 0. 00 Sao?- IFood Products 2 0.056461 0.067162 0.034192 0.068239 0.068154 0.059016 0.062072 0.041690 1, .024155 0.024711 3. Forest Products 3 0.020272 0.021172 0.079218 0.020337 0.018082 0.015505 0.016908 0.009775 0 .0055@1,5 0.005325 4. Chemicals 4 0.006667 0.006137 0.014205 0.006003 O.OU5872 0.009795 0.082565 0.003609 0.0020,55 -0.008337' 5. Petroleum 5 0.002930._ 0.005748 0.005693 0.004171 0.004068 0.004907_ 0.005746 0.003176 0.000854 0.001345 6. Metals 6 0.002088 0.002127 0.025429 0.000908 0.000907 0.000997 0.002447 0.005034 0.000325 0.001022 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 7 6. 0 1313.3 0 *0 250 38 6.-669729 ---o.- 06 85;60-.00 6379 -'6-.-6ns4o-6. 045547--o -. 0 o 537 1 o.002861- 0 *. o 084-66- 8. Transportation Equipment 8 0.001999-0.0019330.002183 0.001849 0.001873 0.001478 0.001716 0.005580 0.000721 0.001571 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.020484 0.026406 0.074912 0.031871 0.033219 0.042521 0.043100 0.016101 0.008006 0.010467 10. Air Transportation Services 10 9&wIr 11. Utilities 1 1.167840 0.035547 0.025029 0.053629 0.036327 0.043624 0.038526 0.018246 0.010970 0.014332 '00 12. Communication 12 0.027184 1.035650 0.018801 0.037296 0.036162 0.057393 0.044238 0.022087 0.010001 0.021547 13. Construction 06724-0.002973---O-.-014"@ 14. Retail Trade 14 0.180837 0.213883 0.108043 1.224094 0.240118 0.172669 0.196527 0.131626 0.076775 0.0-2094 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 15 0.082485 0.095683 0.052860 0.113097 1.144856 0.088445 0.097488 0.061046 0.030913 0.0-2735 116. Services 17. Wholesale Trade 17 a.047057 0.046862 0.026555 0.044646 0.044152 0.034181 1.040026 0.027145 0.015127 0.01.3642 18. Water Transportation Services 18 0.004226 0.005567 0.003903 0.005107 0.005562 0.004096 0.004898 1.003537 0.003!39 0.0076311 19. Drilling Platform Construction ".CIO-wr 20. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 20 ---0.022809__0.027411 0.020557 0.027435 0.027590 0.022374__0.025453 0.016594 0.009558 1.13.9746 21. Food Products 21 0.027742 0.022298 0.011319 0.021200 0.021873 0.016649 0.020150 0.012630 0 . 0072!03 0.083024. 22. Forest Products 005fiO9-0-.0032-'4U--V-.O1.TM- 23. Chemicals 23 0.001676 0.001205_ 0.000T-66 0 .001054 0.001085 0.000824__0.009341 0.000616 0.000315 0.01.2008 24. Petroleum 24 0.022799 0.026173 0.018222 0.027004 0.028252 0.024149 0.025613 0.016177 0.0092.30 0.044481 25. Metals IYOS6'7- 26. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 26-----.o.oolol4---o.O01126-.-G..000626-O..001061_0.001050 _0.000783 _0.005085_0.000658 0.000518 0.004263- AM 27. Transportation Equipment 27 0.000047 0.000087 0.000039 0.000049 0.000060 0.000043 0.000051 0.000429 0.000016 0.000270 28. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 287- ".01BOT-0-.00726 - F03'234--U-.UD7207-0-.00-1536-V-.DO46T7-0-;001572--o.000(;26--". %2GTO- 29. Air Transportation Services 29 0.013788 0.043051 0.009581 0.010120 0.018574 0.012410 0.011235 - 0.005927 0 . 0 0 3177 0.0175111 30. Utilities 30 0.012080 0.014813 0.007680 0.017243 0.014906 0.011363 0.014943 0.008701 0.004969 0.05582. 31. Communication 31 0.001876 0.002640 0.001287 0.003118 0.002357 0.001585 0.004225 0.001782 0 . 0 0 0614 O.oJ8771 32. Construction 32-- 0.002144 O.OU1461 0.000869 0.002036 0.001454 0.001046 -0'001576 -0.000970 0.000435 0.008003- 33. Retail Trade 33, 0.013526_ 0.010364 0. 009266 0.014998 0. 0290030.011.59-7 ----O.OI5255_ 0.008160 0.004172__0.14478i' 34. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 34 0.004986 0.006803 0.003673 0.008625 0,006425 0.004412 0.007972 0.004323 0.001762 0 . 044352; 35. Services 35 - o.011476 00015841 '-O.oC7824--o.016635 0.014112--0 '-0 09580---0 0192?7- 0.008942--0 *003739 --- 0-1256011- 36. Wholesale Trade 36 0.012895_0.010838 _.0.007231 0.006463 0.008651 _0.006138 -0.007238 0.003760 0.001772 0.0431911 37. Water Transportation Services 37 0.003322 0.004329 0.002783 0.003970 0.004296 0.003229 0.003791 0.002415 0.001369 0 . 0 06207 38. Drilling Platform Construction 38--- 0.000001 -0- 00,0001 -.-- 0.-600001- - o . o o o o o I o o o o o 1 6-.-6006-01 -- C.-O 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 1-- 0.-000020- 0-.00061:!- 39. Value Added Local 39 1.322001 1.559508_ 0.790350 1.607283 1.598562 1.270085 1.452160 0.965748_ 0.571D92_0.199414 40. Value Added other Washington 40 0.091140 0.129922 0.066171 0.104366 0.118358 0.079618 0.113069 0.058697 0.030711 1.2379511 C-38 Arthur D Little- lo:@ TABLE C-3 (Continued) 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 1 0.007618 0.000515 0.001541 0.000837 0.001034 0.001951 0.002296 0.001492 0.0029?9 0.001632- 2. Food Products 2 0.021494 0.002E47 0.009018 0.004762 0.006016 0.008343 0.007916 0.008834 0.020030 0.009081 3. Forest Products 3 0.004334 0.001319 0.003413 0.002619 0.003174 U.002960 0.002634 0.002943 0.004820 0.005980 4. Chemicals 4 0.004280 0.001870 0.006223 0.003705 0.002616 0.004130 0.002585 0.004090 0.003372 0.004221- 6. Petroleum 5 0.001246 0.000582 0.001202 0.000655 0.000701 0.001017 _13.0007730.000916 0. 020437 0.001120_ 6. Metals 6 0.002979 0.001388 0.001538 0.000467 0.001408 0.037277 0.069081 0.000798 0.000821 0.001523 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 7* 0.045173 0.002640 0. 007614- -o -. o o-3255i-O-.-0*uq335--d'.-b 0. 006417--o-. 0-0-61K5- 8. Transportation Equipment 8 0.001095_ 0.000591 0.001116-0.0008600.000660 0.001066- _0.0041145_ 0.001166 0.002065__0.001223_ 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.010693 0.003700 0.009100 0.004233 0.004863 0.012229 0.006676 0.007434 0.009621 0.008792 10. Air Transportation Services i6----'o.od94eS- 11. Utilities 0.0.09649 _ 0.002859 _0.029944_ 0.012276 0.029946 0.008447__0.008625 0.006592 0.013408 0.007457 - --------- -- --- 12. Communication 12 0.009049 0.002595 0.009709 0.004186 0.006114 0.007434 0.005875 0.006955 0.014693 0.009020 13. Construction 13--- 0.002726- 6003707 0.003243---0*.004985--0-.-002469- 0.602646--O-.-O-utgtG-C-.002132-- 0.0033617-0-.005-111- 14. Retail Trade 14---0.042577 0.013835 0.043065 0.022808 0.027431 0.040569 0.036202 0.039850 0.060360 0.045376 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 15 0.032897 0.010692 0.034893 0.023223 0.024293 0.031391 0.026463 0.031899 0.044277 0.038875. 16. Services *16-0 .'043136- 0.-012386--- 17. Wholesale Trade '17__O. Oil ?70 _. 0. 005900 0.011412 0.006136 0.009596 0.010972 0.021081 0.010302 0.013695 0.011215 18. Water Transportation Services '18 0.003093 0.002916 0.001740 0.000882 0.001311 0.002175 0.001538 0.002097 0.005044 0.001793 19. Drilling Platform Construction '19---0.- 000 D02F-O-.OO" 0 006-09-C-00 ONFI-07 OV06 20. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining '20 0.244073 0.008522 0.025994 0.012826 0.014759 0.024489 0.020162 0.0?2897 0.030105 0.027537 21. Food Products '21 1.090682 0.016844 0.054269 0.028339, 0.030774 0.052301 0.040297 0.061172 0.066165 0.061497. 22. Forest Products 0.0084 23 0.004532 0.001712 1.027396 0.001844 0.001905 0.003452 0.001841 0.003766 0.002345 0.002717 23. Chemicals 24. Petroleum 24 0.025474 0.066378 0.030310 1.016462 0.011953 0.021904 0.016917 6.031126 0.040796 0.024106 26. Metals O.M9-48@. OlD89--D-.OOO272-O--.O"74'7- 26. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 26_0.025650 O-.@003934 ---0.'0051761- -- 0. 001666--0 -.-002 964-1.020 130_ __O . 008800 0.007064 0.003311 0.005891 27. Transportation Equipment 2T 0.000206 0.000140 0.000225 0.000120 0.000127 0.000218 1.026399 0.000243 0.000997 0.000259 28. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 29-6.-0f-6-32JF-O7.-IYj-k999 -11-.0111yes- 29. Air Transportation Services 29 0.018875 0.012904 0.019815 0.010825 0.006658 0.014797 O@- 007959 0.011342 1.053501 0.014528- 30. Utilities 30 0.028265 0.010082 0.076312 0.023523 0.044175 0.036487 0.024142 0.051705 0.030649 1.170392 31. Communication 31 0.014825 0.006764 0.016860 0.007574 0.008865 0.017929 0.010693 0.020466 0.021017 0.018616 32. Construction 32 * 0.006541 0.050109 0.006443 0.005573 -0.003843 0.005335 - 0.003900 - 0.007269 -0.006089 --0. 017004- 33. Retail Trade _O.D3b635__ 0.117639 0. 061457 ---C-..0.66.551-- 0.113679 _0.088397 _O. 129701 0.131345__0.133625 34. Finance, Insurance, Real Ertsts, 34 0.035846 0.1297?1 0.037277 0.022159 0.022137 0.040354 0.029673 0,046269 0.045538 0.046331 35. Services 35- --0.092479 -0.065583 -0.109138- 0 .- 053120---4.66-60-14 - -0-.110614- 0-.075381 - 0.134601 - 0-.-118345 --0-.147707- 36. Wholesale Trade 36 0.034249 --0.022694 0.036047- 0.019585_0.032541 0.031466 0.0273380.037225 __0.029903__0.036872_ 37. Water Transportation Services 37 0.004162 0.007769 0.003297 0.001549 0.003212 0.005269 0.002404 0.004384 0.006276 0.003181 38. Drilling Platform Construction 39 -o.OoO600 --0 *ooooo3- o.ooooib*-o.6oooo5'--b.-OO-6066-o.-60-oalb-6-.-OO06-08-0-.00001k-- O.-OOOOll-O- ' 000-012- 39. Value Added Local 39 0.177535 0.051685 0.169151 0.089963 0.117923 0.155988 0.155393 0.130982 0.242148 0.166300 40. Value Added Other Washington 40 0.909250 0.321776 1.049530 0.548265 0.591737 1.013173 0.774598 1.163892 1.131686 1.194040 C-39 Arthur D Uttle Inc TABLE Ca (Continued) 31 32 33 - 34 35 -36 37 -38 39 b 40' 1. Agriculture.- Forestry - Mining .1 0.001722 .0 .901468 0.002030 0.001649 0.,001433 0.002217 1.001666 0.0006US 0 - 009640 0-001631 2. Food Prochicts .2 0.009,722 0.00b559 0.021602 0.009254 0.007997 0.013328 0.007169 0.003361 0.070253 0.008991 3. Forest Products 3 0.003556 0.003696 0.0072U5 0.003530 0.003011 0.0061.60 0.002976 0.001282 0.0111712 0.003459 4. Chemicals 4 0.003594 0.002699 0.003793 0.003358 0.003557 0.046564 0.002411 0.001364 0. 00!5064 0.13052.12 5. Petroleum 5 0.001834 0.000748 0.002204 0.001249 _ 0. 00097@6_._ 0.003385 0.001732.__0.000382 0.002063 0.301022 6. Metals 6 0.002579 0.022943 0.000869 0.000838 0.000907 0.002360 .0.002620 0.000399 0.0013663 O.DO06e.8 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 7 --0.018285--- 0.012221-0. -CF0685!5-76.-Oo-6455-'-O-.068477-6.-627637--b.-DOW52T--g.'002630- 0. 0072947-07. OOS2117- 8. Transportation Equipment 8 0,001446 _-0,009912 0.001414 ID.001469 o.oon97 o.ooI35i 0.002890 0.0o0547 0.00L866 0.0015SA 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 9 0.011169 0.022174 0.015604 O.DjD9671 0.012066 0.022896 0.007987 0.005961 0.02D524 0.00a9liiii 10. Air Transpartation.Servi.ces 6.- -6-16 7 9 G-76-.0-6 i@o [email protected] fli@-Gd 6 112 4-6 -.6 0 7 &4 5--0-.-6'106 24-0. 0-655717-T.'00295T--0-.-01 6402-0-.00M.3- 11. Utilities 21- O..0.06159_0. 022599_ 0. 007848__ 0. 006.632 ___O. 016755 0.005919_0.002905__0.028370_ 0.0075'Fl_ 12. Communication 12 0.008456 0.005946 0.014472 0.008450 0.009412 0.020001 0.008674 0.003133 0.027768 0.0082-n 13. Construction 1&--C-.06-2395 --0 -601755-0-.-6-06-037---Do02-411--O.-002091 0.--004l12-O-.-DO2S23-0.-1300863 0.008447--IYff023.LZ- 14. Retail Trade 14 0.050024 0.030440 0.059592 0.052594 0.042029 0,059777 0.034698 0.016767 0.222790 0.0504,07 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 15 0.039052 0.025350 0.054482 0.040498 0.038819 0.049559 0.030319 0.014521 0.087216 0.039510 16. Services 3544&i---U-.'080-609F-07.-O37599---O-.-015479---O-.*176689-0-.'*Oltl5,s9- 0" 17. Wholesale Trade I?- 0.011608-0.008040_ 0.014626 0.011140 0.009285 0..014538 0.009023 0.004531 0.039928 0.010644 18. Water Transportation Services 18 0.002165 0.001469 0.002156 0.002094 0.001717 0.002289 0.001621 0.001545 0.005022 0.002046- 19. Drilling Platform Construction 20. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 20 0.032299 0.029950 0.031696 0.053964 0.029056 0.029862 0.021041 0.012432 0.027742 0.034955 21. Food Products 21 0.072615 0.03840&- 0.069670 0.076420 0.065992 0.063006 0.047035 0.028413 0.020858 0,080270 22. Forest Products -2 2--,b-. 9 F-G OY92 [email protected] M537-3 -.O-n-0 21-o -6-1-6 8 7 2-0--.0-11V"7--0-. V069 4 5-0--.0 0 9 3 5 W-U.Wl 8 If 9 0- 23. Chemicals 23 0.002858 0.007424 0.002007 9.002975 0.006712 0.044231 0.001867 0.001174 0.000872 0"002770 24. Petroleum 24 0.028971 0.026459 0.026976 0.029464- 0.028174 0.026905 0.017911 0.010505 0.02-6984 0,.028053 26. Metals Z5 OT 0.-"M5--O-.-ffO3lD-O.-6O-O949---O.-OOCf245-0 -0 03776---U;-O G012q--0,,-01Y0229- 26. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 26 0.007470 0.058203 0..003818 0.004156 0.005085 0.023747 0.002664 0.004945--0.0009U1 0003767 27. Transportation Equipment 27 0.000324 0.001226 0.000279 0.000316 0.000253 0.000251 0.002188 0.000113 0 . 000044 0"000318 28. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 28-0.161UH-T.-055394 b-24329--6-.032-631--ff-.T24280-Z.-UG49!-O-.00508Y--O*-.-O Ctj786--T'(.-0j'9950- 29. Air Transportation Services 29 0.043255 0.010118- 0.011089 0.019507 0.013483 u.o1331? o.ome!l- o.0II3870 O.CD9084 0.010!iSO 3D. Utilities 30 0.039384 0.025067 0.044728 0.040715 0.048429 0.034870 0.021011 0.013696 D.OL4340 0.034569 31. Communication 31 1.027196 0.014045 0.023678 0.029368 0.049447 0.026902 0.015331 O.OU7960 O.OD1744 0.021v17 32. Construction 32----o.017943 --1.006656 0.010094 0.013351 0.010752 0.007306 0.005367--0.00272S 0.001248 -' 0. 0 07556- 33. Retail Trade 33 0.158067 _0.082403__1.153649__ 0.178677 0.133850 0.134856 0.101331 0.061664 0.011880 0.1743,49 34, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 34 0.056227 0.037526 0.060598 1.104044 0.054107 0.051228 0.035760 0.019217 O.OD5030 0.0529-55 35. Services 35--- -0.144979- -0.092963--- 0-.1:45387- 0-. 175186 -A '172120 0-*.142455-'-O-.092778----O.053280-"D.Ol0653--D.-I:W41160 36. Wholesale Trade 36 ___0.038666_ 0.021736_0.035624 0.038573 0.030675 1.031824 0.023692 0.014201 0.004966 0. 037932 37. Water Transportation Services 37 0.004032 0.002691 0.003686 0.004136 0.003205 0.003605 1.002666 0.001414 0.0113956 0.0031115 38. Drilling Platform Construction 36- 6. 0 0 0 0 14 -0.0 0 0 0 07----0 -.0-0 0 0 1 0 0 615 --0. 0 6-0 0 12--0--.-o 0-0 0 12-0 -Dao 6 OT-1 -.-0 0 0 0 3:c- 0.000001--D-.0001116- 39. Value Added Local 39 ___0.169023 0.12045T 0.220842 0,160271 0.141138 0.261656 0.123502 0.058?04 1.661151 0.154288 40. Value Added Other Washington 40 1.414098 0.736833 1.348793 1.493331 1.201544 1.203522 0.90T823 0.557032 0.057529 1.576646 b. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Region 1. C. Personal Consumption Expenditures, Region 2. Source: Professor William BeYers, University of Washington. C-40 AmhurDlittip-hic significantly since the 1-0 matrix was constructed. (See Table C-4.) However, the employment multipliers are based on 1967 data and wage rates. Therefore, the multipliers would tend to seriously overestimate employment since sales per employee have increased dramatically. We have increased the employment multipliers by the percentage that wages in each industry have increased since 1967, utilizing information from County Business Patterns. The resultant employment multipliers are shown in Table C-5. Population estimates are based on labor force participation rates. These rates have changed dramatically in the past decade as a higher percentage of the population is in the working years and a greater percentage of women have entered the labor force. Recent issues of the U.S. Department of Labor publication Employment and Earnings indicate that approximately 62% of the population over 16 is in the labor force, up from 60% in 1970.* Since the proportion of the population aged 16 and under has decreased during that same time period, the effective rise in the overall labor force participation rate has been even greater. Recent estimates for the state of Washington place the labor force participation rate at approximately 44% for the state as a whole with higher rates for the metropolitan areas and lower rates for rural areas. However, these rates include all age groups in the population.** The population which can be expected to migrate to Washington to accept any petroleum-related jobs will be of working age and can therefore be expected *U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Earnings, February, 1977, p. 12. **Washington Pocket Data Book, 1976. C-41 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-4 EMPLOYNENT AND PAYROLL MULTIPLIERS FOR MATRIX 1 a Employmentb Payroll c Sector Multip ier Multiplier 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 0.03865 0.21251 2. Food Products 0.01282 0.13437 3. Forest Products 0.02231 0.25079 4. Chemicals 0.01800 0.25573 5. Petroleum 0.00172 0.02590 6. Metals 0.01071 0.15154 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.02451 0.27028 8. Transportation Equipment 0.02533 0.36082 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.03478 0.32906 10. Transport Services 0.03529 0.46484 11. Utilities 0.01086 0.14483 12. Communication 0.02633 0.53003 13. Construction 0.01628 0.23633 14. Trade 0.06404 0.48063 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 0.03723 0.31809 16. Services 0.05066 0.39936 17. Pipeline Construction 0.01241 0.29829 18. Petroleum Construction 0.00998 0.24000 19. Dock-buoy Operation 0.00998 0.25000 20. Pipe-dock Operation 0.00162 0.03496 21. Shipping 0.00080 0.01902 22. Petroleum Operation 0.00110 0.06237 23. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 0.03349 0.21251 24. Food Products 0.01101 0.13437 25. Forest Products 0.01933 0.25079 26. Chemicals 0.01550 0.25573 27. Petroleum 0.00149 0.02590 28. Metals 0.00928 0.15154 29. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.02124 0.27028 30. Transportation Equipment 0.02195 0.36082 31. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.03014 0.32906 32. Transport Services 0.03057 0.46484 33. Utilities 0.00941 0.14483 34. Communication 0.03039 0.53003 35. Construction 0.01411 0.23633 36. Trade 0.05553 0.48063 37. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 0.03226 0.31809 38. Services 0.04389 0.39936 39. Value Added Local 0.00008 0.00392 40. Value Added Other Washington 0.00008 0.00392 a. Region I is Clallam, Crays Harbor, Skagit, and Whatcom Counties; Region 2 is the rest of the state. b. Person years of employment per million dollars of sales. c. Personal income per dollar of sales. Sources: Oceanographic Institute of Washington; 1972 Census of-Manufacturing; 1972 Census of Wholesale Trade; 1972 Census of Retail Trade; 1972 Census of Selected Services; 1972 Census of Transportation; 1972 Census of Agriculture; Arthur D. Little, Inc. C-42 Arthur D Little, Inc. TABLE C-5 EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLL MULTIPLIERS FOR MATRIX 2a Employmentb Payroll Sector Multiplier Multiplierc 1. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 0.03349 0.21251 2. Food Products 0.01101 0.13437 3. Forest Products 0.01933 0.25079 4. Chemicals 0.01550 0.25573 5. Petroleum 0.00149 0.02590 6. Metals 0.00928 0.15154 7. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.02124 0.27028 8. Transportation Equipment 0.02195 0.36082 9. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.03014 0.32906 10. Air Transportation Services 0.03057 0.46484 11. Utilities 0.00941 0.14483 12. Communication 0.03039 0.55083 13. Construction 0.01411 0.23633 14. Retail Trade 0.08830 0.23633 15. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 0.03226 0.31809 16. Services 0.04389 0.39936 17. Wholesale Trade 0.02533 0.36082 18. Water Transportation Services 0.00789 0.16237 19. Drilling Platform Construction 0.00100 0.02500 20. Agriculture - Forestry - Mining 0.03865 0.21251 21. Food Products 0.01282 0.13437 22. Forest Products 0.02231 0.25079 23. Chemicals 0.01800 0.25573 24. Petroleum 0.00172 0.02590 25. Metals 0.01071 0.15154 26. Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.02451 0.27028 27. Transportation Equipment 0.02533 0.36082 28. Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.03478 0.32906 29. Air Transportation Services 0.03529 0.46484 30. Utilities 0.01086 0.14483 31. Communication 0.02633 0.53003 32. Construction 0.01628 0.23633 33. Retail Trade 0.10190 0.52326 34. Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 0.03723 0.31809 35. Services 0.05066 0.39936 36. Wholesale Trade 0.03572 0.09400 37. Water Transportation Services 0.00910 0.16237 38. Drilling Platform Construction 0.00100 0.02500 39. Value Added Local 0.00008 0.00392 40. Value Added Other Washington 0.00008 0.00392 a. King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties are region 1; the rest of the state is region 2. b. Person-years of employment per million dollars of sales. c. Personal income per dollar of sales. Sources: Professor William Beyers, University of Washington; 1972 Census of Manufacturing; 1972 Census of Wholesale Trade; 1972 Census of Retail Trade; 1972 Census of Selected Services; 1972 Census of Transportation; 1972 Census of Agriculture; Arthur D. Little, Inc. Arthur D Little, Inc C-43 to have a relatively high labor force participation rate. We have assumed a civilian labor force participation rate of 45% for any in-migrant popula- tion. However, because it is likely that some people will migrate to oil- impacted regions in search of oil-related employment and find themselves unable to obtain any employment, the actual percentage of people employed will be somewhat lower. Justification for the assumption that a mild in- crease in employment does.not necessarily result in a decline in the unem- ployment rate can be seen in the development of California where a rapid increase in employment opportunities during the 1950s and 1960s did not reduce an unemployment rate that was consistently among the highest in the nation. Because the in-migrant workers will be in the age group in which they are most likely to have families, the average household size will be larger than for the population as a whole. Table C-6 shows 1970 and 1976 popula- tion per household estimates for various communities in Washington. Un- fortunately, none of the major urban centers in the region have updated their population per household estimates. Based on the figures in Table C-6, however, it is clear that there is a wide degree of variance among communities. Therefore, it is not possible to accurately predict the exact household size for new in-migrants to Washington. Based on the assumption that the household size for the in-migrant population would be larger than that for the total population, we have used a population per household estimate of 3.0. C-44 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE C-6 CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLD SIZE FOR SELECTED WASHINGTON COMMUNITIES 1970-1976 1970 1976 Community Household Size Household Size Bonney Lake 3.435 3.141 Bothell 3.305 2.738 Centralia 2.590 2.394 Dayton 2.648 2.419 Edmonds 3.280 2.876 Fife 3.025 2.317 Issaquah 3.149 2.704 Kalama 3.107 2.718 Moses Lake 3.303 2.910 Nooksack 3.067 3.153 Port Orchard 3.089 2.556 Redmond 3.362 2.901 Sumner 2.916 2.548 Warden 3.688 3.405 Yarrow Point 3.484 3.138 Source: Population Studies Division, Office of Program Planning And Fiscal Management, State of Washington. C-45 Arthur D Little, Inc. Residential development densities vary widely throughout the impact region. Densities are generally greater in the central Puget Sound region than elsewhere in the state. Residential housing densities in the communities in the impact area range from less than two to more than four units per acre. Because most of the direct jobs created in oil-related companies will have relatively high salaries, we anticipate that a high percentage of the in- migrant population will live in single-family homes. The incomes of those Washington residents working on oil'development equipment in Alaska will be substantially higher than those of the average Washington resident and so these people can be expected to occupy more land per household. Therefore, we have assumed that residential housing density for in-migrants will be approximately 2.5 units per acre. We consider this a maximum estimate and utilize it as a method for estimating the maximum impacts that this devel- opment might have on the state. The model estimates sales, business and occupation, gasoline, cigarette, alcoholic beverage and state property tax revenues. The state levies a sales tax of 4.5% on the sale of almost all tangible personal property, measured by the total selling price of the commodity. However, there are exemptions for intermediate use goods and medicines. Therefore, the effec- tive tax rate cannot be applied to all sales. However, the Department of Revenue issues quarterly estimates of total sales by sector and of total taxable sales. By applying the sales tax rate to the percentage of total sales that are taxable, an effective sales tax rate can be determined. C-46 Arthur D Little- fric The sales tax rates used for each sector are shown in Table C-7.* Also included is the applicable local sales tax rate, which is levied at the rate of 0.5% on taxable sales. Business and occupation taxes are levied against the gross income (receipts) of business before deductions for operating expenses, taxes or any other losses or expenses. A business firm may report its income under several classifications; any portion taxed under one category is not generally taxed under any other classification. The business and occupation tax is imposed on all transactions except those specifically exempted or as limited by the Federal Constitution. These include business subject to the public utilities tax, agricultural pro- duction, Red Cross, interstate commerce, real estate rentals and sales except commissions. In addition there are several specific exemptions: inventory tax credit, manufacturer's tax credit, and the pollution control credit. Therefore, the effective tax rate is less than the actual rate. The Department of Revenue provides quarterly estimates of Business and Occupation tax receipts and of business gross income by type of activity. From these listings we have derived the effective Business and Occupation tax rates by sector. (See Table C-8.**) *We have used the sales tax rates applicable during the fourth quarter of 1975 and the first quarter of 1976. **We have used the business and occupation tax rates applicable during the fourth quarter of 1975 and the first quarter of 1976. C-47 10 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-7 EFFECTIVE SALES TAX RATES State Tax Local Tax as a Percentage as a Percentage Sector of Total Sales of Total Sales Agriculture-Forestry-Mining 0.0 % 0.0 % Food Products 0.150 0.0167 Forest Products 0.150 0.0167 Chemicals 0.150 0.0167 Petroleum 0.150 0.0167 Metals 0.150 0.0167 Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.150 0.0167 Transportation Equipment 0.150 0.0167 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.150 0.0167 Transport Service 0.439 0.0488 Utilities 0.439 0.0488 Communication 0.439 0.0488 Construction 2.173 0.241 Trade 1.7 0.189 FIRE 0.185 0.021 Services 1.186 0.132 Pipeline Construction 0.0 0.0 Petroleum Construction 0.0 0.0 Dock Buoy Operation 0.0 0.0 Pipe-Dock Operation 0.0 0.0 Shipping 0.0 0.0 Refining Operation 0.0 0.0167 Sources: Department of Revenue, State of Washington, "Quarterly Business Review," Fourth Quarter 1975, First Quarter 1976. C-48 Arthur D Little Inc C TABLE C-8 EFFECTIVE BUSINESS AND OCCUPATION TAX RATES Tax as a Percentage Sector of Total Sales Agriculture-Forestry-Mining 0.432% Food Products 0.340 Forest Products 0.415 Chemicals 0.401 Petroleum 0.419 Metals 0.407 Fabricated Metals and Machinery 0.420 Transportation Equipment 0.376 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 0.369 Transport Service 0.467 Utilities 0.667 Communication 0.479 Construction 0.0416 Trade 0.342 FIRE 0.623 Services 0.635 Pipeline Construction 0.0416 Petroleum Construction 0.0416 Dock Buoy Operation 0.467 Pipe-Dock Operation 0.467 Shipping 0.467 Refining Operation 0.419 Sources.: Department of Revenue, State of Washington, "Quarterly Business Review," Fourth Quarter 1975, First Quarter 1976. C-49 Arthur D Little, Inc A recent study by the Department of Revenue estimated that an in-migrant population can be expected to consume 125 packages of cigarettes per capita on an annual basis. This is somewhat higher than the latest reporting period's estimate of actual consumption in Washington -- 100 -- but lower than the national average -- 145. However, because of the higher@percentage of people of working age expected in an in-migrant population, the 125 figure has been used in this study also. The cigarette tax in Washington is presently $0.16 per pack and is collected by means of stamps purchased by cigarette wholesalers. A discount of $1.85 per 1000 cigarettes or $0.037 per package is allowed wholesalers for costs incurred in attaching the stamps. Therefore, the effective rate is $0.123 per package. Using the estimate of 125 packages per capita per annum, state revenues per capita are $15.375.* The primary Washington tax on motor vehicle fuel is the $0.09 per gallon gasoline tax. Revenues from the tax are used to finance construction and maintenance of highways and streets. The distribution of tax proceeds is somewhat complex. The following entities and funds receive parts of the tax: Puget Sound Reserve Account for ferry system bonds; Urban Arterial Trust Account; Motor Vehicle Bond Redemption Fund; Puget Sound Ferry Opera- tion Account, and state and local general highway funds. As part of its assessment of the state revenues to be generated by the Trident submarine base in Kitsap County, the Department of Revenue estimated motor vehicle *Estimates based on research conducted by Research and Information Division, Washington State Department of Revenue, "Forecast of State Revenues from Trident Related Activity," January 27, 1977. C-50 Arthur D Little, Inc. fuel taxes by year. These estimates, which were done on a per vehicle basis, can be estimated on a per capita basis using information provided by the Department of Motor Vehicles concerning average persons per vehicle. Annual motor vehicle fuel tax receipts per capita are shown in Table C-9.* Washington derives revenue from alcoholic beverages in three ways: specific excise or general sales taxes, license fees, and the profits of the state monopoly on liquor sales. Special taxes are imposed on the following alcoholic beverages: spirits, beer, wine, and spirits sold in original containers. Proceeds of the revenues are distributed to the state's gen- eral fund, to counties, cities, and towns, and to the University of Wash- ington and Washington State University for medical and biological research. Some funds are earmarked for the Department of Social and Health Services for alcohol rehabilitation. The Department of Revenue has forecast these taxes on a per capita basis. Fiscal 1974 revenues of $87.6 million were divided by the April 1974 population estimate -- 3,488,100 -- to yield a per capita estimate of $25. This has been used for the in-migrant popula- tion estimated by this study. Final demands to Washington's economy from petroleum development activities in Alaska can be expected to come in several forms. Chapters I-IV outlined the major impacts that would accrue to the state and estimated their timing through 1985. In order to utilize these estimates in the I-0 models pre- sented previously, it was necessary to translate these quantity impacts into their resultant dollar impacts on the Washington economy. *Ibid. 10 C-51 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-9 ANNUAL PER CAPITA MOTOR VEHICLE FUELS TAX RECEIPTS Year Receipts 1977 $39.28 1978 40.53 1979 41.39 1980 42.23 1981 43.44 1982 43.72 1983 44.05 1984 44.29 1985 44.58 C Source: Research and Information Division, Washington State Department of Revenue, "Forecast of State Reve- nues from Trident Related Activity," January 27, 1977. C-52 Arthur D Little, Inc. In general, the several types of impacts can be further disaggregated into construction and operational impacts. Table C-10 indicates the timing of the different types of impacts. As indicated, most construction impacts will be completed by 1981, while many of the operational impacts will not begin until 1979 or 1980. Puget Sound can expect to receive Prudhoe Bay oil as soon as the Alyeska pipeline becomes operational, but unless the Northern Tier Pipeline is completed, flows of Alaskan oil into Puget Sound will not be significant. Heavy flows of equipment through Washington will occur primarily during periods of peak construction of offshore and onshore crude production facilities and a natural gas pipeline and associated facilities. In our assessment of the impacts of Alaskan oil development on Washington we have taken two approaches: one which considers all impacts including those which will only replace current oil industry impacts on Washington, and a second which will consider only new impacts. The advantage of the first method is that it allows the Department of Ecology to determine the total impact of Alaska's oil on Washington, while the second indicates what additional developments will take place and what impact they will have on the state. We will indicate for each part of the impact whether it is a new or a replacement impact. Marine terminal expansion costs are estimated in Table C-11. This will be a new impact of Alaskan oil development. This information is taken from Table IV-6 but inflated to 1976 dollars using the 8% inflation rate assumed in the Department of Commerce and Economic Development Study from C-53 Arthur D Little Inc. TABLE C-10 TIMING OF OIL-RELATED IMPACTS ON WASHINGTON Impact Category 1977 1978 1979,1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Oil Refineries Expansion and Construction c 0a xb x 0 0 0 0 0 0 Use of Alaskan Crude d 0 X x x x x x x x Tankers To Puget Sound Refineries e 0 x x x x x x x x To Northern Tier Pipeline 0 0 0 x x x x x x Northern Tier Pipeline Constructiong 0 x x 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operation h 0 0 0 x x x x x x El Paso Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline Construction 0 0 x x x 0 0 0 0 Crude Oil Developmenti 0 0 0 x x x x x x Washington Laborers in Alaska k 0 0 0 x x x x x x Washington Oil-related Equipment Manufacturel 0 0 x x x x x x x a. Indicates negligible impact on Washington. b. Indicates significant impact on Washington. c. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-11. d. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-12. e. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-13. f. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-14. g. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-15. h. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-15. i. Impact will be water and airfreight shippers; impacts in Tables C-16 and C-1-J. j. Impact will be on water and airfreight shippers; impacts listed in Tables C-1.8 and C-19. k. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-20. 1. Detailed estimate of direct impacts listed in Table C-21. C-54 Arthur D Little Inc V TABLE C-11 MARINE TERMINAL EXPANSION COSTS (thousands of 1976 dollars) Year SHELLa TEXACOb -MOBILc 1978 $17PO64 $1,080 $11,340 1979 17,064 0 0 1980 0 0 0 1981 0 0 0 1982 0 0 0 1983 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 a. Each year of construction includes $9.18 million for berth construction and $7.884 million for terminal-tankage construction. Figures from Table IV-6 allocated to two construction projects and inflated by 8% to obtain 1976 dollars. b. Year of construction is for berth facilities. Figure from Table IV-6 inflated by 8% to obtain 1976 dollars. c. Each year of construction includes $7.553 million for berth construction and $3.807 million for terminal-tankage construction. Figures from Table IV-6 allocated to two construction projects and inflated by 8% to obtain 1976 dollars. Sources: "Assessment of Alternative Crude Oil Marine Terminal Locations in Washington State," Economic Policy Analysis Division, Washington State Department of Commerce and Economic Development; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. C-55 10 Arthur D Little, Inc which the information was derived. Because of the need of the refineries to expand their marine terminal facilities in order to switch from receiving oil through pipelines to receiving oil from tankers, it is expected that this construction will take place in the near future. The allocation between a two-year construction period, however, is based only on the amount of time required for similar projects in other locations. It is possible that all projects could be completed in a one-year time period. Refined costs for Alaskan crude are derived from a variety of sources. The recently completed assessment of petroleum transfer systems for Washington conducted by the Oceanographic Institute developed-6stimates of refinery operating costs for refineries in Puget Sound.* These costs have been inflated from their 1974 levels as reported in that document to July 1976 levels using the Nelson cost index as reported in the Oil and Gas Journal.** The refining costs refer only to the amount of Alaskan crude that can be used in each refinery. Since the amount produced by the refineries will not change with the introduction of Alaskan crude, this is solely a replacement impact. (See Table C-12.) Alaskan crude capacities were presented in Table IV-7. Cost estimates are based on those developed by the Oceanographic Institute but were adjusted slightly to include the business and occupation tax as a cost *Oceanographic Commission of Washington, ibid., pp. V-22-V-24. **Nelson, W. L., "Nelson Cost Indexes," Oil and Gas Journal, January 3, 1977, p. 78. C-56 Arthur D LittIc Inc TABLE C-12 REFINING COSTS FOR ALASKAN CRUDE OIL IN EXISTING PUGET SOUND REFINERIES a (thousands of 1976 dollars) Year Costb 1978 $69.755 1979 69.755 1980 69.755 1981 69.755 1982 69.755 1983 69.755 1984 69.755 1985 69.755 a. Assumes Alaskan crude capacities at 96 MBPD for ARCO, 19.5 MBPD for Texaco, and 17.875 MBPD for Mobil for total of 133.375 MBPD. See Table IV-7 for Alaska crude capacities of Puget Sound refineries. b. Costs based on refinery operating cost esti- mates given in Offshore Petroleum Transfer Systems for Washington State: A Feasibility Study, Oceanographic Commission of Washington, 1975. Escalated to third quarter 1976 dollars using Nelson refinery operating cost index, The Oil and Gas Journal, January 3, 1977. Sources: Oceanographic Commission of Washington, Offshore Petroleum Transfer Systems for Washington State: A Feasibility Study, January 1975; Nelson Cost Indexes, The Oil and Gas Journal, January 3, 1975; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. C-57 Arthur D Little, Inc of refining. The change in the Nelson index between 1974 and 1976 was then applied to this base. These final demands are applied to the Refining Operations sector of matrix I of Table C-1. Tanker delivery costs of Alaskan crude to Puget Sound refineries are pre- sented in Table C-13. Since most of the oil for the refineries had pre- viously entered from a pipeline to Canada, the economic impacts of the tanker movements are new impacts on Washington. Two sets of cost estimates are presented for each landing port. These estimates differ because of the size of ship assumed for each scenario. The high cost estimates assume that the larger ships of the Jones Act fleet will travel to the most distant ports -- California -- which means that smaller and more expensive ships will travel to Puget Sound ports. The low estimate assigns larger ships to Puget Sound ports. However, in the case of Cherry Point, tankers have been limited to a maximum size of 125,000 deadweight tons. The cost figures do not include any pipeline transpor- tation costs that would be required from either Port Angeles or Kitimat to the Puget Sound refineries. Tanker cost estimates were derived as part of an assessment for the Port of Long Beach of the differing eco- nomic costs of alternative delivery methods for getting Alaskan crude oil to the Midwest.* These costs refer only to that amount of crude which can be refined by Puget Sound refineries as determined in Table IV-7. These final demands are applied against the shipping sector of matrix 1 of Table C-1. *Port of Long Beach, Sohio West Coast to Mid-Continent Pipeline Project, Draft Environmental Impact Report, 1977. C-58 Arthur D Uttle, Inc TABLE C-13 ALASKA14 CRUDE OIL DELIVERY COSTS TO PUGET SOUND REFINERIES a (thousands of 1976 dollars) Off-loading Point Port Cherr Kitimatc Angelesa Point Year -High Low High Low High ... Low 1978 $17,118 $13,964 $22,073 $22,073 $14,415 $11,261 1979 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1980 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1981 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1982 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1983 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1984 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 1985 17,118 13,964 22,073 22,073 14,415 11,261 a. Includes 35.28 million bbls/yr for ARCO; 7.166 million bbls/yr for Texaco; and, 6.569 million bbls/yr for Mobil, based on Table IV-7. b. Cost estimates are $0.34898/bbl for high estimate and $0.028469/bbl for low estimate. c. Cost estimates for $0.4500/bbl for both high and low estimate. d. Cost estimates are $0.29338/bbl for high estimate and $0.22959/bbl for low estimate. Source: SOHIO Pipeline -- Long Beach to Midland, Texas, Draft EIR. C-59 Arthur D Little, Inc. Tanker costs for transporting oil from Valdez to selected Puget Sound ports for transfer to the proposed Northern Tier Pipeline are shown in Table C-14. Transport costs per barrel are the same as those used in Table C-13 and are derived from the same source using identical assumptions. Two levels of costs are provided for the two possible throughput levels of the Northern Tier Pipeline -- 600 MBPD and 800 MBPD. As is easily seen, potential Northern Tier impacts are far greater than those which will be caused by the demand of Puget Sound refineries alone. These final demands are also applied against the shipping sector of matrix I of Table C-1. The Washington portion of the construction cost of the proposed Northern Tier Pipeline, which will be a new impact on Washington, is estimated at $288.4 million. (See Table C-15.) This estimate is based on the proposal of the Northern Tier Pipeline company as prepared by Butler Engineering Associates.* Costs for the Washington sector of the pipeline were esti- mated as the proportion of total costs that the length of the pipeline in Washington is of the total pipeline length. The cost of all marine ter- minal facilities associated with the project was allocated to Washington. A construction period of two years is suggested by Butler Engineering but the disaggregation of total construction expenditures between the two years is based on similar projects and would be dependent on the exact start-up date for the project. This final demand will be applied to the *Butler Engineering Associates, Inc., "Preliminary Engineering Design and Construction Cost Estimate: Northern Tier Pipeline System," 1976. c-60 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-14 ALASKAN CRUDE TRANSPORT COST TO NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE (thousands of 1976 dollars) Off-loading Point Port Cherr Angelesa Point@ Kitimatc Year High Low -High Low High Low 600 MBPD 1980 $ 76,427 $62,347 $ 98,550 $ 98,550 $64,360 $503,280 1981 76,427 62,347 98,550 98,550 64,360 50,280 1982 76,427 62,347 98,550 98,550 64,360 50,280 1983 76,427 62,347 98,550 98,550 64,360 50,280 1984 76,427 62,347 98,550 98,550 64,360 50,280 1985 763,427 62,347 98,550 98,550 64,360 50,280 800 MBPD 1980 $101,902 $83,129 $131,400 $131,400 $85,813 $67,040 1981 101,902 83,129 131,400 131,400 85,813 67,040 1982 101,902 83,129 131,400 131,400 85,813 67S@040 1983 101,902 83,129 131,400 131,400 85,813 67,040 1984 101,902 83,129 131,400 131,400 85,813 67,040 1985 101,902 83,129 131,400 131,400 85,813 67,040 a. Cost estimates are $0.34898/bbl for high estimate and $0.28469/bbl for low estimate. b. Cost estimates are $0.4500/bbi for both low and high estimates. c. Cost estimates are $0.29338/bbl for high estimate and $0.22959/bbl for low estimate. Source: SOHIO Pipeline -- Long Beach to Midland, Texas, Draft EIR. C-61 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-15 NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATING COSTS a (thousands of 1976 dollars) Construction b Operation Year Expenditures Expenditures 1978 $144,184 $ 0 1979 144,184 .0 1980 0 31,736 1981 0 31,736 1982 0 31,736 1983 0 31,736 1984 0 31,736 1985 0 31,736 a. Portion in Washington only, including marine terminal and storage facilities at Port Angeles. Assumes 600 MBPD pipeline. b. Marginal construction cost to increase capacity to 800 MBPD is $18.043 million. c. Marginal annual operating cost to increase capacity to 800 MBPD is $12.177 million. Source: Butler Associates "Preliminary Engineering Design and Construction Lst Estimate," 1976. C-62 Arthur D LittIc Inc. pipeline and marine terminal construction sectors of matrix I of Table C-1. The operating costs for the Northern Tier Pipeline are also shown in Table C-15. These are also calculated as a percentage of total operating costs based on the percentage of total pipeline mileage in Washington, plus the cost of the marine terminal.* Total impacts are calculated by using these operating cost estimates as a final demand against the pipeline and marine terminal operating sector of matrix 1 of Table C-1. Washington will be a transshipment point for construction materials required for the El Paso Alaska natural gas line and LNG facility. Because Washington served as a center for logistical support activities for the construction of the Alyeska pipeline, it is not perfectly obvious as to whether these impacts should be considered as new or replacement impacts. We have chosen to consider them as new impacts since they will support new and different projects in Alaska from those supported pre- viously through Washington. The revenues accruing to Washington as a result of this activity are shown in Tables C-16 and C-17, for marine and air transportation respectively. The total amount of commodity flows to Alaska is taken from Table IV-23. Based on experiences of the Alyeska pipeline, allocations were made to marine and airfreight operations. Marine freight rates were determined by allocating different freight to different carriers based on the capacity and nature of their service and then calculating the appropriate freight rate for each type of com- modity based on the freight rates of the different carriers. Airfreight *ButlerAssociates, ibid. C-63 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE C-16 MARINE SHIPPING REVENUES FOR EQUIPMENT TO BE TRANSSHIPED THROUGH WASHINGTON FOR EL PASO ALASKA GAS PIPELINE AND LNG PLANTa (millions of 1976 dollars) 1979 1980 1981 Alaskan Pipeline b $30.167 $30.167 $ 0 Main Line Pipe Compressor Stationsc 0 1.446 1.446 Construction Equipmentc 0.957 0 0 Miscellaneousd 0.271 0.477 -0.289 Subtotal $31.395 $32.090 $ 1.735 Alaskan LNG Plant Plant Equipmentc $ 8.383 $ 8.383 $ 1.524 n Construction Equipmentc 0.470 0.107 0 Subtotal $ 8.853 $ 8.493 $-1.524 Total $40.248 $40.583 3.259 a. Cargo volumes based on Table IV-23. Rates based on those of Totem Ocean Trailer Express. b. Assumes all main line pipe listed in Table IV-23 moves by water. c. Assumes 80% of indicated categories moves by water and 20% by airfreight. d. Assumes 50% of miscellaneous cargos move by water and 50% by airfreight. e. Assumes 90% of plant equipment moves by water and 10% by air freight. Sources: Totem Ocean Trailer Express, Inc., Freight Tariff No. 1, 1976; Crowley > Tug and Barge, Inc.; Sea Land; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimate based on information from El Paso Natural Gas Company. lb 41 di do TABLE C-17 AIRFREIGHT SHIPPING REVENUES FOR EQUIPMENT TO BE TRANSSHIPPED THROUGH WASHINGTON FOR EL PASO ALASKA GAS PIPELINE AND LNG PLANTa (millions of 1976 dollars) 1979 1980 1981 Alaskan Pipeline Compressor Stationb b $ 0 $ 2.205 $ 2.205 Construction Equipment 1.929 0 0 Miscellaneousc 2.082 3.671 2.224 Subtotal $ 4.011 $ 5,876 $ 4.429 Alaskan LNG Plant Plant Equipmentd $ 7.762 $ 7.762 $ 1.411 Construction Equipmentb 1.000 0.227 0 Ln Subtotal $ 8.762 $ 7.989 $ 1.411 Total $12.773 $13.865 $ 5.840 a. Cargo volumes based on Table IV-23. Rates based on discussions with airfreight operators at Sea-Tac International Airport. b. Assumes 20% of indicated cargo moves by airfreight and 80% by water. C. Assumes 50% of indicated cargo moves by airfreight and 50% by water. d. Assumes 10% of indicated cargo moves by airfreight and 90% by water. Sources: Pacific Northwest Airlines; Pan American Airlines; Western Airlines; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimate based on information from El Paso Natural Gas Company. rates were assumed at a constant rate of $500 per ton which several air- freight operators in Seattle indicated was the average charge currently being assessed against oil-related airfreight traffic to Alaska. Air carriers are expected to carry approximately 8% of all freight moving to Alaska for the pipeline and LNG facility. Because of the prompt service currently being offered by Totem Ocean Trailer Express, it was assumed that direct truck traffic to Alaska would be minimal. The impacts of commodities shipped through Washington for crude oil devel- opment in Alaska are shown in Tables C-18 and C-19. Total cargo volumes are based on Table IV-23. Freight is allocated between water and air transport on the basis of the allocations for previous shipment of oil- related freight. Sources for both air and water freight rates are the same as those used in Tables C-16 and C-17. The impact of this develop- ment will continue for a longer time period than for the gas pipeline and associated LNG facility. These impacts are applied to the water and air transportation sectors of matrix 2 of Table C-1. One of the major impacts of oil-related developments for Washington will be the number of Washington residents who will hold oil-related jobs in Alaska. These will be new jobs and will therefore be new impacts on Washington. The numbers of people are estimated in several tables in Chapter IV. Utilizing the wage rates assumed in Table IV-34, Table C-20 estimates the wages that will be returned to Washington by residents working in Alaska. Because of the uncertainty of the exact number of C-66 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE C-18 MARINE SHIPPING REVENUES FOR EQUIPMENT TO BE TRANSSHIPED THROUGH WASHINGTON FOR ALASKAN PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENTa (millions of 1976 dollars) -1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Offshore Drilling Materials Steel Casing $ 1.162 $1.936 $ 2.710 $ 3.485 $ 3.746 $ 4.269 Drilling Muds b 2.659 4.432 6.205 7.978 8.875 9.773 Well Completion Equipment 0.024 0.073 0.121 0.169 0.187 0.206 Miscellaneousc 0.020 0.033 0.046 0.059 0.065 0.072 Subtotal 3.865 $6.474 $ 9.082 $11.691 $12.873 $14.320 Pipeline Steel Pipe $ 1.370 $2.283 $ 3.196 $ 4.109 $ 4.109 $ 4.109 Coating 1.815 3.717 5.204 6.691 6.691 6.691 Welding Materials and Miscellaneous c 0.007 0.012 0.016 0.021 0.021 0.021 Subtotal 3.192 $6.012 $ 8.416 $10.821 $10.821 $10.821 Platform Installations Modules $ 1.080 $1.800 $ 2.520 $ 3.240 $ 3.240 $ 3.240 Piling 0.231 0.308 0.385 0.462 0.462 0.462 Cement 0.011 0.019 0.026 0.033 0.033 0.033 Subtotal 1.322 $2.127 $ 2.931 $ 3.735 $ 3.735 $ 3.735 Total Offshore $ 8.379 $14.613 $20.429 $26.247 $27.429 $28.876 Onshore Drilling Materials Steel Casing $ 1.706 $ 1.706 $ 1.706 $ 1.706 $ 1.706 $ 1.706 Drilling Muds b 4.986 4.986 4.986 4.986 4.986 4.986 Well Completion Equipment 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 0.088 Miscellaneousc 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.037 Subtotal (Total Onshore) 6.817 $6.817 $ 6.817 $ 6.817 $ 6.817 6.817 Total Revenues $15.196 $21.430 @27.246 U3.064 U3.246 $35.693 C: a. Cargo volum-es based on Table 11-9. Rates based on those of Totem Ocean Trailer Express. b. Assume S 70% of well completion equipment moves by water and 30% by airfreight. c. Assumes 50% of welding materials and miscellaneous cargos move by water and 50% by airfreight. ,(D Sources: Totem Ocean Trailer Express, Inc.; Freight Tarrif No. 1, 1976; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE C-19 AIRFREIGHT SHIPPING REVENUES FOR EQUIPMENT TO BE TRANSSHIPPED THROUGH WASHINGTON FOR ALASKAN PETROLEUM DEVELOPMENT a .(thousands of 1976 dollars) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Offshore Drilling Materials b Well Completion Equipment $ 86.3 $ 259.1 $ 432.0 $ 604.8 $ 669.6 $ 734.4 Miscellaneousc 150.0 250.0 350.0. 450.0 501.0 551.0 Subtotal $ 236.3 $ 261.6 $ 782.0 $1,054.8 $1.170.6 $1,285.4 Pipeline Welding Materials and Miscellaneousc $ 62.5 $ 104.3 $ 145.8 $ 187.5 $ 187.5 $ 187.5 Subtotal $ 62.5 $ 104.3 $ 145.8 $ 187.5 $ 187.5 $ 187.5 Total Offshore $ 298.8 $ 365.9 $ 927.8 $1,242.3 $1,358.1 $1,472.9 Onshore 00 Drilling Materials Well Completion 1, quipmentb $ 313.2 $ 313.2 $ 313.2 $ 313.2 $ 313.2 $ 313.2 Miscellaneousc 281.3 281.3 281.3 281.3 281.3 281.3 Subtotal (Total Onshore) $ 594.5 $ 594.5 $ 594.5 $ 594.5 $ 594.5 $ 594.5 Total Revenues $ 893.3 $ 960.4 $1,522.5 $1,836.8 $1,952.6 $2,067.4 a. Cargo volumes based on Table 11-9. Rates based on discussions with airfreight operators at Sea-Tac Inter- national Airport. b. Assumes 30% of indicated cargo moves by airfreight and 70% by water. c. Assumes 50% of indicated cargo moves by airfreight and 50% by water. .Sources: Pacific Northwest Airlines; Pan American Airlines; Western Airlines; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE C-20 WAGES AND WASHINGTON COMPONENT OF CONSUMPTION OF WASHINGTON RESIDENTS OF OFFSHORE LABOR FORCE (millions of 1976 dollars) 1980 . 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Total Wages - Best Estimate a $33.428 $65.556 $97.683 $105.211 $112.739 $120.268 Consumption in Washington - Best Estimateb 28.414 55.723 83.031 89.429 95.828 102.228 Consumption in Washington - Low Estimatec 20.057 39.337 58,610 63.127 67.643 72.161 Total Wages - Low Estimate d 6.686 13.111 19.537 21.042 22.548 24.053 01 I'D Consumption in Washington - Best Estimate 5.683 11.145 16.606 17.886 19.166 20.446 Consumption in Washington - Low Estimate 4.011 7.867 11.722 12.625 13.529 14.432 a. Includes 75% of all skilled and semiskilled offshore personnel. See Tables !V-32 and IV-33. b. Assumes 85% of payroll returned to Washington. c. Assumes 60% of payroll returned to Washington. d. 20% of the high estimate. rD Washington residents who will find work in Alaska, a range of estimates is offered. Similarly, ranges are offered of the percentage of the pay- roll that will be returned to Washington. This labor force would be involved in crude oil development operations only. This income will act as a final demand to the personal consumption sectors Of the I-0 matrix and will be applied to matrix 2 of Table C-1. Table C-21 estimates the impact of drilling/production platform construc- tion on Washington. Currently Kaiser industries has an option on land at the Port of Everett and at Grays Harbor for the purpose of constructing drilling/production platforms for use in offshore Alaskan waters. Kaiser anticipates being able to construct approximately 40 platforms over a ten- year period at a cost of between $50 and $100 million per platform. Pre- liminary calculations by the Port of Everett and Kaiser Engineering indi- cate that approximately $15 million will be required to prepare the site for construction and that it is unlikely that any platforms could be completed before the end of 1979.* All final demands will be applied to the construction sector of matrix 2 of Table C-1. These construction activities would be a new impact on Washington since similar platforms have never before been constructed in the state. *Interview with John Belford, Manager, Port of Everett, November 1976. C-70 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE C-21 OFFSHORE DRILLING/PRODUCTION PLATFORM CONSTRUCTION (millions of 1976 dollars) Facility Platform Year Preparation Constructiona 1977 $6.0b $ 0 1978 9.0b 0 1979 0 75.0c 1980 0 225.0 d 1981 0 300.0 e 1982 0 300.0 1983 0 300.0 1984 0 300.0 1985 0 300.0 a. Platform costs are expected to vary widely, dependent upon the specifications required for a platform in a specific area. Costs will range between $50 and $100 apiece. Average cost of $75 million/platform used. b. Two-year preparation costs to include $5 million for dredging, settling, and dike construction; $5 million for other land costs; and $5 million investment by developer for construction facilities. c. Completion of one platform. d. Completion of three platforms. e. Completion of four platforms. Sources: Interview with John Belford, Manager, Port of Everett; Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. C-71 Arthur D Little Inc. .W AL w APPENDIX D -1 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE D-1 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Component Airborne Waterborne Airborne Waterborne Commerce Washington Manufacturing Commerce Commerce Commerce for El Paso Residents of Oil. for Crude Oil for Crude Oil for El Paso Natural Gas Working in Platforms in Year Develo ment a Developmentb Gas Line c Line d Alaskae Washington Total 1977 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 6,000 $ 6,000 1978 0 0 0 0 0 9,000 9,000 t= 1979 0 0 40,248 12,773 0 75,000 128,021 1980 15,196 893 40,583 13,865 4,011 225,000 299,548 1981 21,430 960 3,259 5,840 7,867 300,000 339,356 1982 27,246 1,523 0 0 11,722 300,000 340,491 1983 33,064 1,837 0 0 12,625 300,000 347 1984 33,246 1,953 0 0 13,529 300,000 348,728 1985 35,693 2,067 0 0 14,432 300,000 352,192 Total $165,87/5 $9,233 $84,090 $32,478 $64,186 $1,815,000 $2,17/0,862 a. From Table C-18. New impact. b. From Table C-19. New impact. C. From Table C-16. New impact. d. From Table C-17. New impact. e. From Table C-20. New impact. f. From Table C-21. New impact. TABLE D-2 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO I1--A (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars') Scenario Component Crude Oil All Delivery to Northern Tier Scenario I Northern Tier Construction and Year Componentsa Pipelineb Operation Costsc Total 1978 $121,312 $ 0 $144,184 $ 265,496 1979 108,892 0 144,184 253,076 1980 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 1981 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 1982 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 1983 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 1984 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 1985 91,828 62,347 31,736 185,911 Total $781,172 $374,082 $478,784 $1,634,038 a. From Table XI-4. Replacement impact during each year is $69.755 million. b. From Table C-14; Port Angeles destination. Assumes 600 MBPD. New impact. c. From Table C-15. Assumes 600 MBPD. New impact. D-2 Arthur D Little Inc TABLE D-3 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO II-B (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Components Refinery Pipeline Tanker Operating Construction and Transport Year Costs a_ Operat ons Costs b Costsc Total 1978 $ 69,755 $159,184 $ 22,073 251,012 1979 69,755 159,184 22,073 251,012 1980 69,755 33,000 54,238 156,993 1981 69,755 33,000 54,238 156,993 1982 69,755 33,000 54,238 156,993 1983 69,755 33,000 54,238 156,993 1984 69,755 33,000 54,238 156,993 1985 69,755 33,000 54@238 156,993 Total $558,040 $516,368 $369,574 $1,443,982 a. From Table C-12. Replacement impact. b. From Table C-15. Assumes a capacity of 730 MBPD from Port Angeles to the origin of the pipeline spur, a capacity of 600 MBPD for the remainder of the Northern Tier Pipeline, and a capacity of 130 MBPD for the pipeline spur. New impact. c. F&m Table C-14. Assumes 730 MBPD. New impact. D-3 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE D-4 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACT OF SCENARIO III (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Components Crude Oil Northern Tier All Delivery to Pipeline Scenario I Northern Tier Construction and Year Componentsa -Pipelineb Operations Costsc Total 1978 $121,312 $ 0 $139,668 $ 260,680 1979 108,892 @0 144,248 253,140 19'80 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 1981 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 1982 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 1983 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 1984 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 1985 91,828 98,550 29,000 219,378 Total $781,172 $591,300 $457,916 $1,830,388 a. From Table XI-4.. Replacement impact during each year of $69.755 million. b. From Table C-14. Assumes 600 MBPD and Cherry Point Destination. New impact. C. From Table C-15. Assumes a landing capacity of 730 MBPD, a capacity AM of the Northern Tier Pipeline of 600 MBPD, and a capacity of a spur' pipeline from the landing site to the Puget Sound refineries of 130 MBPD. New impact. D-4 Arthur D Little- Inc TABLE D-5 DIRECT ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF SCENARIO IV (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Scenario Components Crude Oil for Crude Oil for Local Refineries Midwest Refineries Refining Costs Delivered to Delivered to for Puget Sound Year Kitimat a Kitimatb Refineries c Total 1978 $ 22,073 $ 0 $ 69,755 $ 91,828 1979 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1980 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1981 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1982 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1983 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1984 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 1985 11,261 50,280 69,755 131,296 Total $100,900 $351,960 $558,040 $1,010,900 a. From Table C-14. New impact. b. From Table C-14. Assumes Kitimat as destination and throughput of 600 MBPD. New impact. c. From Table C-12. Replacement impact. D-5 10 Arthur D Little, Inc TABLE D-6 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS* LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 $ 15,000 $ 18,951 $ 397 $ 757 $ 56 74 7 1979 128,021 J.78,842 5,441 19JI619 800 1,560 103 1980 299,548 444,354 16,595 36,539 2,318 3,343 299 1981 339,356 599,500 25,846 37,264 3,550 4$091 460 1982 340,491 609,968 32,248 39,926 4,372 4,680 569 1983 347,526 640,098 35,820 43,638 4,870 5,151 636 a, 10,84 348,728 645,128 36,860 44,126 5,000 5,230 655 1985 352,192 651,772 37,784 44,998 5,118 5,319 671 1986** -0- 203,488 23,543 20,675 3,447 3,147 453 1987** -0- 101,588 11,776 10$328 1,725 1,572 226 1988** -0- 47,744 5,551 4,859 814 7 3191 1-07 *All impacts are net impacts; i.e., there are no replacement impacts. "Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE D- 7 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS* LOGISTIC SUPPORT ACTIVITIES (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes- - Other Taxes Total Taxes - Year Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 173 18 58 6 23 2 $ 44 $ 1 $ 69 $ 1 21 2 $ 135 $ 4 1979 3,674 248 1,225 83 490 33 633 21 701 15 471 26 1,804 62 1980 7,871 724 2,624 241 1,050 97 1,435 61 1,590 44 968 78 3,993 182 1981 9,625 1,114 3,209 371 1,283 149 1,746 94 1,802 68 1,132 120 4,680 282 1982 11,010 1,378 3,670 459 1,468 184 1,971 117 1,864 84 1,275 149 5,110 350 1983 12,118 1,540 4,039 513 1,616 205 2,137 132 1,940 93 1,405 167 5,482 391 1984 12,303 1,585 4,101 528 1,640 211 2,164 136 1,948 95 1,428 172 5,540 403 1985 12,512 1,624 4,171 541 1,668 217 2,197 140 1,969 97 1,458 177 5,624 414 1986** 7,400 1,095 2,467 365 987 146 1,018 95 313 65 812 119 2,143 279 1987** 3,697 548 1,232 183 493 73 509 47 156 33 405 59 1,070 140 1988** 1,739 258 580 86 232 34 239 22 74 15 190 28 503 66 *All impacts are net impacts; i.e., there are no replacement impacts. **Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. -Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE D-8 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO II-A - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITHOUT PUGET SOUND SPUR (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years, Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales- Region 1 Et&Lon 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 a $265,496 $386,056 $ 66,973 $59,265 $ 7,860 2,953 779 1979 b 253,076 292,804 129,982 62,355 15,279 3,510 1,514 1980 c 185,911 225,943 123,302 16,217 14,535 1,502 1,430 1981 d 185,911 225,539 113,993 14,827 13,471 1,328 1,315 1982 e 185,911 219,960 91,689 12,350 10,873 1,044 1,052 1983 f 185,911 215,700 73,965 10,390 8,800 818 841 1984 f 185,911 215,700 73,965 10,390 8,800 818 841 1985 f 185,911 215,700 73,965 10,390 8,800 818 841 1986g -0- 19,880 49,361 3,916 5,873 387 562 19879 -0- 9,908 24,603 1,952 2,927 193 280 1988g -0- 4,624 11,481 911 1,366 90 131 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. > f. Net impacts will be approximately 60% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. C: Source: A r-hur n. Little, T nc., estj ates. I-L L J- Im ID TABLE D- 9 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO II-A - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE TATITHOUT PUGET SOUND SPUR (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres@ - Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978a 6,970 1,838 2,323 612 929 245 $332 $226 $ 687 $109 $1,074 $215 $2,096 552 1979b 8,282 3,573 2,760 1,191 1,104 476 535 441 717 212 1,215 423 2,469 1,077 1980c 3,544 3,375 1,181 1,125 472 450 493 422 1,018 215 432 403 1,943 1,042 1981d 3,133 3,102 1,044 1,034 417 413 441 394 1,016 214 490 376 1,848 985 1982e 2,463 2,481 821 827 328 330 358 321 990 185 313 301 1,663 809 1983f 1,931 1,985 643 661 257 264 291 262 971 162 152 243 1,515 669 1984f 1,931 1,985 643 661 257 264 291 262 971 162 152 244 1,516 669 1985f 1,931 1,985 643 661 257 264 291 262 971 162 153 244 1,516 670 19869 912 1,325 304 441 121 176 116 175 90 108 110 162 319 447 1987g 454 660 151 220 60 88 58 87 45 54 54 81 159 222 1988g 212 308 70 102 28 41 27 40 21 25 25 37 74 104 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 60% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. [7 TABLE D-10 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO II-B - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH PUGET SOUND SPUR (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Demand Year Sales Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 a $251,012 $247,781 $ 57,497 $54,988 $ 6,829 2,721 678 1979 b 251,012 264,454 115,359 60,679 13,702 3,348 1,360 1980 c 179,066 213,804 111,616 14,969 13,277 1,377 1,308 1981 d 179,066 214,148 103,821 13,778 12,370 1,224 1,208 1982 e 179,066 210,233 85,470 11,748 10,202 989 987 1983 f 179,066 206,806 69,413 9,972 8,304 783 794 1984 f 179,066 206,806 69,413 9,972 8,304 783 794 1985 f 179,066 206,806 69,413 9,972 8,304 783 794 19869 -0- 18,513 46,324 .3,711 5,542 366 530 19879 -0- 9,227 23,089 1,850 2,762 183 264 19889 -0- 4,306 10,775 863 1,289 85 123 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 60% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. Z7 1+ TABLE D-11 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO II-B - NORTHEKN TIER PIPELINE WITH PUGET SOUND SPUR (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Re ion 2 Region 1 Regicn 2 1978 a 6,421 1,599 2,140 533 856 213 $305 S197 $446 $ 92 5 993 S187 S1,746 S117-1 1979 b 7,902 3,209 2,634 1,069 1,053 427 495 395 523 184 1,170 380 2,189 961 1980 C 3,250 3,086 1,083 1,028 433 411 462 386 962 192 397 368 1,823 948 1981 d --,889 2,850 963 950 385 380 415 362 964 194 360 344 1,741 902 1982 e 2,334 2,329 778 776 311 310 344 301 946 172 297 283 1,588 757 1983 f 1,848 1,873 616 624 246 249 282 247 930 152 242 229 1,454 630 1984 f 1,848 1,873 616 624 246 249 282 247 930 152 242 229 1,454 631 1985 f 1,848 1,873 616 624 246 249 282 247 930 152 243 230 1,455 631 19869 864 1,250 288 416 115 166 110 165 84 102 105 153 300 421 1987g 430 623 143 207 57 83 55 82 42 50 51 75 149 210 1988g 201 290 67 96 26 38 25 38 19 23 24 35 69 98 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 60' of gross impacts in all categories. g, Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE D-12 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO III - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH CHERRY POINT TERMINAL (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Re ion 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 1978 a $231,496 $248,041 $ 55,077 $49,206 $ 6,518 2,453 645 1979 b 236,076 264,693 110,503 54,558 13,078 3,039 1,294 1980 c 219,378 257,833 116,413 15,719 13,738 1,399 1,347 1981 d 219,378 261,965 118,501 15,280 13,946 1,325 1,355 1982 e 219,378 260,063 105,987 13,733 12,444 1,142 1,200 1983 f 219,378 258,399 95,036 12,378 11,130 981 1,064 1984 f 219,378 258,399 95,036 12,378 11,130 981 1,064 1985 f 219,378 258,399 95,036 12,378 11,130 981 1,064 1986g -0- 26,041 63,425 4,848 7,428 479 710 19879 -0- 12,980 31,612 2,416 3,702 2-39 354 19889 -0- 6,057 14,752 1,128 1,728 ill 165 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 85% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc. estimates. a L @ 0 1 P I P V lp 0 TABLE D-13 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, TAX, AND LAND USE IMPACTS SCENARIO III - NORTHERN TIER PIPELINE WITH CHERRY POINT TERMINAL (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 a 5,789 1,522 1,929 507 771 203 S293 S188 S 530 90 $ 892 $179 S1,716 $ 459 1979 b 7,172 3,054 2,390 1,018 956 407 470 378 606 182 1,057 361 2,135 9-23 1980 c 3,301 3,179 1,100 1,059 440 423 461 401 1,167 209 401 380 2,037 992 1981 d 3,126 3,199 1,042 1,066 416 426 439 410 1,185 230 393 388 2,019 1,029 1982 e 2,693 2,832 897 944 359 377 384 369 1,176 219 344 345 1,905 934 1983 f 2,315 2,512 771 837 308 334 335 332 1,168 209 301 308 1,806 850 1984 f 2,315 2,512 771 837 308 334 335 332 1,168 209 302 308 1,806 850 1985 f 2,315 2,512 771 837 308 334 335 332 1,168 209 302 309 1,807 851 19869 1,130 1,676 376 558 150 223 146 222 118 139 137 206 402 568 19879 563 835 187 278 75 ill 72 110 58 69 67 101 200 283 19889 262 389 87 129 35 51 34 51 27 32 31 47 93 132 a. Net impacts will be approximately 90% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 85% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 80" of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 75% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 70% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Net impacts will be approximately 65% of gross impacts in all categories. g. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE D-14 GROSS SALES, EMPLOYMENT, AND INCOME IMPACTS SCENARIO IV - KITIMAT-TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Final Wage and Person Years Demand Total Sales Salary Income of Employment Year Sales Region 1 Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978 a $ 91,828 $ 96,086 $ 9,402 $3,289 $1,118 242 108 19*79b 131,'296 143,216 26,761 5,623 3,127 430 301 1980 C 131,296 148,885 39,724 6,706 4,612 537 444 1981 d 131,296 152,673 48,324 7,476 5,605 613 539 e 1982 131,296 154,250 52,009 7,715 6,018 636 578 1983 e 131,296 154,250 52,009 7,716 6,018 636 578 1984 e 131,296 154,250 52,009 7,716 6,018 636 578 1985 e 131,296 154,250 52,009 7,716 6,018 636 578 1986 f -o- 15,319 34,709 3,162 4,016 312 386 f 1987 -o- 7,635 17,299 1,576 2,002 155 1941 1988 f -0- 3,563 8,073 736 934 73 90 a. Net impacts will be approximately 15% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 35% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Secondary impacts only. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. TABLE D-15 GROSS DEMOGRAPHIC, LAND USE, AND TAX WACTS SCENARIO IV - KITIMAT-TRANS MOUNTAIN PIPELINE (low estimate; thousands of 1976 dollars) Supported Supported Land Consumption Population Households (acres) Sales Taxes B & 0 Taxes Other Taxes Total Taxes Year Region I Region 2 Region 1 Region 2 Region Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 Region I Region 2 1978' 571 254 190 84 76 33 S147 $ 32 $415 $ 18 $ 74 S 29 $ 637 $ 81 1979 b 1,014 710 338 236 135 94 194 91 634 55 130 83 961 231 1980 c 1,266 1,046 422 348 168 139 227 135 660 82 161 125 1,050 344 1981 d 1,445 11,272 481 42. 192 169 250 164 678 100 185 154 1,114 1-20 1982 e 1,501 1,365 500 455 200 182 258 176 685 109 192 165 1,136 452 1983 e 1,501 1,365 500 455 200 182 258 176 685 109 192 166 1,136 453 1984 e 1,501 1,365 500 455 200 182 258 176 685 109 193 166 1,137 453 e 1985 1,501 1,365 500 455 200 182 258 176 685 109 193 166 1,137 454 z 1986' 735 911 245 303 98 121 94 118 70 72 89 ill 254 303 1987 f 366 454 122 151 48 60 47 58 35 36 43 55 126 151 1988 f 171 211 57 70 22 28 22 27 16 16 20 26 59 70 a. Net impacts will be approximately 15% of gross impacts in all categories. b. Net impacts will be approximately 35% of gross impacts in all categories. c. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. d. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. e. Net impacts will be approximately 45% of gross impacts in all categories. f. Secondary impacts only. Total Taxes may not equal sum of Sales, B & 0, and Other Taxes due to rounding. Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates. 77 APPENDIX E BIBLIOGRAPHY -1 -1 Arthur D Little Inc AIR QUALITY PERSONS CONTACTED I Washington, State of, Department of Ecology I Eleanor Miller Of E-1 Arthur D Little- Inc AIR QUALITY REFERENCES Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, EPA/OAP Publication AP-42, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, Latest Edition. Dames & Moore and George Lamb Associates. Air Quality Conditions at Port. Angeles, July 1976. Federal Energy Administration. North Slope Crude: Where to? - How? November 1976. Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. Air Quality Analysis of the Unloading of Alaskan Crude Oil at California Ports, Final Report, November 1976. Teknekron, Inc., Energy and Environmental Engineering Division. Air Quality Impact Evaluation of Candidate Sites for an Alaskan Oil Transfer Terminal in the Pacific Northwest (Washington and Oregon), Final Report, September/October 1-976. Turner, D.B. Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates, EPA/OAP Publication AP-26, Research Traingle Park, North Carolina, 1969. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Clean Air Act of 1963 (PL 88-206); The Clean Air Act of 1965 (PL 89-272; the Air Quality Act of 1967 (PL 90-148); and the Clean Air Amendments of 1970 (PL 91-604). The Clean Air Act of 1974 (as amended). Office of Public Affairs. Reclassification of Areas Under EPA Regulations for Preventing Significant Deterioration of Air Quality, 1975. Washington, State of, Department of Ecology. Washington State Air Monitoring Data for 1974 and 1975, November 1975 and April 1976. Washington State Air Quality Implementation Plan (First Semiannual Report), 1973. E-2 Arthur D Little, Inc INFRASTRUCTURE PERSONS CONTACTED Bellingham, City of John Wiseman, Engineer, Public Works Department Marilyn Vogel, Planner, Planning Department Clallam County Lester J. Lancaster, Assessor Clallam County, Port Angeles Randy Wright, Utilities Supervisor Port Angeles, WA Kenneth Rodocker, Public Works Director Superintendent of Public Instruction Jean Antonio, Administrative Program Specialist Alan Metcalf, Ph.D., Director, Statistical Iaformation Service Washington, State of, Department of Ecology Norm Glenn, Wastewater Management Jerry Jewett, Solid Waste Management Mike Kirk Chuck Meyer, Solid Waste Management Grants Don Peterson Art Russell, Solid Waste Management Washington, State of, Department of Ecology, Northwest Region, Olympia John Glenn, Wastewater Management Engineer Washington, State of, Department of Ecology, Southwest Region, Olympia Stanley Springer, Environmental Quality Engineer Washington, State of, Department of Employment Security, Olympia Jay Allen Washington, State of, Department of Revenue Donald C. Taylor, Administrative Assistant, Research and Information Ronald H. Kinoshita, Civil Engineer E-3 Arthur D Little- Inc INFRASTRUCTURE PERSONS CONTACTED (continued) Washington, State of, Department of Revenue, Olympia Dan Gooding Washington, State of, Department of Social and Health Services, Water Supply and Waste Section, Olympia Mark Spahr, Special Projects Engineer Washington, State of, Department of Social and Health Services (Skagit, Whatcom, and San Juan Counties), Olympia Simon Tung, District Engineer Washington, State of, Office of Community Development, Olympia Jay Moor Washington, State of, Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management Donald B. Pittenger, Ph.D., Assistant Chief John Walker, Chief, Population Studies Division Washington, State of, Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management, OlymDia, Washington Future Bond Issue Office Claude Lakewold Whatcom County Planning Department Roger Almskaar, Planner Wilder Construction Company "Moose" Zurline E-4 Arthur D Little, Inc INFRASTRUCTURE REFERENCES Jepson, Ronald T. & Associates. Whatcom County Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan, 1973. Port Angeles, Port of. Port of Port Angeles Supplemental Annual Report for 1975. RCW Chapter 39-36. Limitation of Indebtedness of Taxing Districts. RCW Chapter 84-34. Limitation of Indebtedness of Taxing Districts. RCW Chapter 84-34. Open Space, Agricultural and Timber Lands-Current Use Assessment-Conservation Futures. Seattle, City of, Water Department. Water Supply Plan for King County, October 1968. Skagit County. Skagit Regional Water Quality Management Program, Phase 1, 11 Summary Report, January 1975. Stevens, Thompson & Runyan, Inc. Clallam. County Comprehensive Water and Sewerage Plan, March 1970. . Environmental Management for the Metropolitan Area 303(3) Water Quality Management Plan, September 1975. URS Company. Wastewater Facilities Draft Facilities Plan, Des Moines Sewer District, November 1975. URS/Hill, Ingman, Chase & Co. Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Plan for Clallam County, Engineering Report, September 1972.. Washington, State of. Annual Planning Report, July 1976. Annual Planning Report, Seattle-Everett, WA Area, 1976. Annual Planning Report, Tacoma, WA Area, 1976. Department of Ecology. Solid Waste Management Report, September 1971. . 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan Water Resource Inventory Area 3, 4-Skagit Basin, Draft, September 1975. 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan Water Resource Inventory Areas 05 and 07-The Stillaguamish and Snohomish River Basins, September 1975. E-5 Arthur D Little, Inc INFRASTRUCTURE REFERENCES (continued) 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan, Water Resource Inventory Area 1-Nooksack Basin, October 1975. 303(e) Draft Water Quality Management Plan Water Resource Inventory Area 10, 12-Puyallup-Chambers Basin, January 1976. Department of Revenue. First Annual Report, Fiscal 1968. Annual Report 1969. Annual Report, Property Levies, Collections, Utility Valuations, 1971. Economic Forecast for the State of Washington Calendar Years 1975 to 1980, May 1970. 1973, 1974, and 1975 Tax Statistics. 1974 Property Tax Collections and Levies Due in 1975, July 1975. Second Biennial Report, 1970. Third Biennial Report, 1972. Washington State County Tax Area Code, 1976. Washington, State of. Employment and Payrolls in Washington State by County and by Industry (Industries Covered by the Employment Security Act), July 16, 1974 and August 13, 1975. Office of Community Development, Directory of City, County, Regional, State, and Federal Planning Agencies, September 1975 (revised). . Land Use Planning in the State of Washington: The Role of Local Government, July 1976. Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management. State of Washington Population Trends, 1976. Information Systems Division. State of Washington Population Pyramids, 1950, 1960, 1970, September 1972. E-6 Arthur D Little, Inc. INFRASTRUCTURE REFERENCES (continued) Washington, State of. Referendum 27 - Municipal and Industrial Water Supply Grant and Loan Program Guidelines, March 1976. Research Council. The Research Council's Handbook (Statistical and Explanatory Information on State and Local Government, 1976. State Superintendent of Public Instruction. Citizens' Handbook on Washington Public School Administration and Finance, May 1974 (revised). . Substitute Senate Bill No. 2130, Solid Waste Management, February 1976; and Second Substitute House Bill No. 731, Solid Waste Management, February 1976. 21st Biennial Report and 1966 Annual Report of the Tax Commission, 1966. Water,Supply and Waste Section. Washington's Water Today and Tomorrow, June 1976.. Washington, University of, Institute for Marine Studies. Economic Analysis Baseline Studies Program (Marine), 1975. Western Whatcom County in Cooperation with Whatcom. County Soil Conser- vation District, Bellingham. Land and Water Resources Survey, October 1953. E-7 Arthur D Little, Inc LAND USE PERSONS CONTACTED Anacortes, Washington Charles Davenport, City Manager Bellingham, Washington, Office of Planning and Development William Hager, Planner Blaine, Washington Laura Amundson, City Clerk Clallam County, Washington Lester J. Lancaster, Assessor Clallam County Planning Department Joseph R. William, Assistant Planner Ferndale, Washington Cecil Barr, Mayor Port Angeles, City of Kenneth Whorton, City Manager Paul Carr, Planning Director Port Angeles, Port of Douglas G. Hendricks, Assistant Manager Skagit County Eldon Christopher, Skagit County Assessor Skagit County Planning Department Otto M. Walberg, Jr., Assistant Planner Washington, State of, Office of Program Planning and Fiscal Management Donald B. Pittenger, Ph.D., Assistant Chief John Walker, Chief, Population Studies Division E-8 Arthur D Li ttle, Inc" LAND USE PERSONS CONTACTED (continued) Whatcom County Mr. Turner, Whatcom County Assessor Whatcom County Planning Department Ellen Stepleton, Planner E-9 Arthur D Little, Inc LAND USE REFERENCES Anacortes, City of. Anacortes Comprehensive Plan (draft), 1-976. Clallam County Board of Freeholders. Clallam County Home Rule Charter, November 2, 1976. Clallam County Ordinance No. 70 of 1976. An ordinance adopting certain comprehensive land use plan language dealing with oil ports and related oil storage and oil pipeline facilities, July 8, 1976. Clallam County Planning Department. The Preliminary Clallam County Land Use Plan, May 1976. Clallam County Shoreline Advisory Committee. Clallam County's Shoreline Master Program, August 1976. King County Department of Budget and Program Planning. King County Shore- line Management Master Program, November 1975. Pierce County Planning Department. Shoreline Master Program for Pierce County, 1974. Poole, M.G. and Associates. Clallam County Comprehensive Plan, 1967. Randall, Thomas R. Whatcom County Council of Governments. An Inventory of Existing Physical, Social, and Economic Data (Nooksack- Sumas River Basin), June 1973. Skagit County Planning Department. Comprehensive Plan for the Islands District of Skagit County, August 1975. Skagit County Shoreline Management Master Program, June 1976. Skagit County Rural Development Committee. Skagit River Flooding: An Overview, March 1976. Skagit County, Washington Ordinance No. 4081. Interim*Zoning Ordinance, February 25, 1975. Snohomish County Citizens Advisory Committee on Shoreline Management. Snohomish County Shoreline Management Master Program, September 1974. Swan Wooster Engineering, Inc. Port of Port Angeles Comprehensive Plan, November 1973. E-10 Arthur D Little, Inc LAND USE REFERENCES (continued) U.S. Department of the Army, Corps of Engineers. Beach Erosion Control, Environmental Impact Statement, Port Angeles, August 1972. Washington, State of, Department of Ecology. Washington State Coastal Zone Management Program, June 1976. Washington, State of, Department of Natural Resources. Your Public Beaches: Hood Canal, 1976. Your Public Beaches: South Puget Sound, 1976. Whatcom County Planning Commission. Shoreline Management Program: Draft Environmental Impact Statement, 1975. Whatcom. County, Washington. Revised Preliminary Comprehensive Plan for Birch Bay, September 1976. E-11 Arthur D Little- Inc MARINE BIOLOGY AND WATER QUALITY PERSONS CONTACTED National Marine Fisheries Service, Marine Mammal Division Allan Wolman, Cetologist Clifford Fiscus, Mammologist Washington, State of, Department of Ecology Kevin Anderson, Baseline Studies David Jamison, Baseline Studies Gary Rothwell, Water Quality, Industrial Discharge Permits Washington, State of, Department of Fisheries, Olympia Robert Foster, Biologist, Salmon Culture Division Harry Senn Washington, State of, Department of Fisheries, Seattle Dale Ward Washington, State of, Department of Natural Resources, Division of Marine Land Management, Olympia Clifford Millenbach, Chief of Fisheries Management E-12 Arthur D Little- Inc MARINE BIOLOGY AND WATER QUALITY REFERENCES Beak Consultants, Inc. Baseline Study Program: North Puget Sound Biological Oil Impact Literature Review, Final Report-1975, October 1975. Environmental Feasibility Studies, and Arthur D. Little, Inc. Draft Environmental Impact Report on SOHIO West Coast to Mid- Continent Pipeline Project, Volume 2, Part I and 2, and Volume 3, Part 1, 2, and 3, September 1976. Oregon State University. Water Pollution Control Research Series, Oceanography of the Nearshore Coastal Waters of the Pacific Northwest Relating to Possible Pollution, Volume 1, 1971. Skagit County Planning Department. Comprehensive Plan for the Islands District of Skagit County, Washington, August 1975. Soils International, Allan Hancock Foundation, and Socio-Economic Systems, Inc. Draft Environmental Impact Report on SOHIO West Coast to Mid-Continent Pipeline, Volumes I and 2, September 1976. Stevens, Thompson and Runyan, Incorporated. Clallam County Comprehensive Water and Sewerage Plan, March 1970. U.S. Department of the Army, Seattle District, Corps of Engineers. Ediz Hook Beach Erosion Control, Port Angeles, WA-Final EIS, August 1972. U.S. Department of Commerce. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra- tion, Tidal Current Tables, 1974, Pacific Coast of North America and Asia, 1973; and Tide Tables High and Low Water Predictions, 1974, West Coast of North and South America, including the Hawaiian Islands, 1973. . The Interagency Ad Hoc Task Force, Environmental Conditions within Specified Geographical Regions (offshore East and West Coast of the United States and in the Gulf of Mexico), Final Report, April 1973. Washington, State of, Department of Ecology. Biological Oil Impact Literature Review: Volume III, Species and Oil Impact Fact Sheets, 1975. Coastal Zone Environmental Studies Report No. 1: A Baseline Survey of Significant Marine Birds in Washington State, September 1975. Arthur D Little- Inc. E-13 MARINE BIOLOGY AND WATER QUALITY REFERENCES (continued) Washington, State of, Department of Ecology. 303(e) Water Quality Manage- ment Plan WRIA 3, 4 Skagit Basin, September 1975. 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan - WRIA 1 Nooksack Basin, October 1975. 303(e) Water Quality Management Plan - WRIA 17, 18, 19, 20 North Olympic Coastal Basin (303(e) Addendum), 1976. Washington, State of, Department of Natural Resources. Washington Marine Atlas, Volumes 1, 2, and 3, July 1974. Washington, University of, Department of Zoology. Baseline Study Program North Puget Sound, Oil Pollution and the Significant Biological Resources of Puget Sound, October 1975. Washington, University of, Fisheries Research Institute. Baseline Study Program-North Puget Sound, Baseline Study Report No. 10, Nearshore Fish Survey, October 1975. E-14 Arthur D Little, Inc PETROLEUM INDUSTRY PERSONS CONTACTED Atlantic Richfield Company, Ferndale Gary Smith, Air, Water, and Conservation Services Atlantic Richfield Company, Los Angeles R. 1. Harris Atlantic Richfield Oil Refinery, Ferndale Fielding Formway, Refinery Manager Mobil Oil Refinery, Ferndale A. E. Williamson, Manager Shell Oil Company Dan Knudson, Chemist, Environmental Group William Malseed, Plant Manager Rick Thompson Texaco Oil Refinery, Anacortes P. C. Templeton, Plant Manager Trans Mountain Pipeline Company, Ltd., Vancouver, B.C. A. W. Samson, Chief Engineer E-15 Arthur D Little, Inc PETROLEUM INDUSTRY REFERENCES Arthur D. Little, Inc. Atlantic Richfield Company, Ellwood Facility Expansion, Environmental Impact Report, November 1975. Northern Tier Pipeline Co. Site Evaluation: Supplement No. 1, August 19, 1976. Oceanographic Institute of Washington. Offshore Petroleum Transfer Systems for Washington State, December 16, 1974. Washington, State of, Department of Ecology. A Comparative Assessment of Three Proposed Deepwater Port Terminal Facilities: Appendix G-1, January 23, 1976. E-16 Arthur D Little In' TERRESTRIAL BIOLOGY PERSONS CONTACTED Washington, State of, Department of Ecology Kevin Anderson, Baseline Studies David Jamison, Baseline Studies Arthur D Little, Inc E-17 TERRESTRIAL BIOLOGY REFERENCES Franklin, Jerry F. and,Dyrness, C.T. Natural Vegetation of Oregon and Washington (USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-8), 1973. Skagit Regional Planning Council. Comprehensive Land Use Planning Alterna- tives for the Skagit River Floodplain and Related Uplands, April.1973. Washington, State of, Department of Fisheries. Final Progress Report Evaluation of 1964 Brood Coho Released from Ten Puget Sound and One Coastal Hatchery, June 1970. Hatcheries Statistical Report of Production and Plantings, 1975. Hatcheries Statistical Records Report No. 4, 1975. Hatchery System Analysis Elokomin 1974, April 1975. Hatchery Statistical Records, Report No. 5, Hatchery Production Investigation Catalog 1972. E-18 Arthur D Little, Inc I DATE DUE GAYLORDINo. 2333 PRINTED IN J S A ell 3 6668 14-107 4882