[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 86 (Thursday, May 2, 2024)]
[Notices]
[Pages 35808-35812]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2024-09575]
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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Availability for Public Comment on NCA6 Draft Prospectus; Call for
Authors and Contributors, Technical Inputs; and Notice of Public
Engagement
AGENCY: Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce
(DOC).
ACTION: Notice of request for public comment on the Draft Prospectus of
the Sixth National Climate Assessment, Call for Authors and
Contributors, Call for Technical Inputs, and Notice of Planned Public
Engagement.
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SUMMARY: NOAA is publishing this notice on behalf of the U.S. Global
Change Research Program (USGCRP), which seeks public comment on the
proposed themes and framework of the Sixth National Climate Assessment
(NCA6) as indicated by the Draft Prospectus presented in Part I. Based
on input received from this notice, USGCRP will develop an annotated
outline, which will be released for public comment at a later date.
This notice also requests nominations for volunteer contributors and
submission of technical inputs (Parts II and III) and provides notice
of planned public engagement events (Part IV) for NCA6.
DATES: Comments and nominations must be submitted to the web address
specified below and received by June 7, 2024, at 11:59 p.m.
ADDRESSES: Comments, nominations, and technical inputs from the public
will be accepted electronically via the USGCRP Public Contribution
System: https://contribute.globalchange.gov Instructions for submitting
comments are available on the website. Submitters may enter text or
upload files in response to this notice.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Chris Avery, (202) 419-3474,
[email protected], U.S. Global Change Research Program.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The following Federal Register Notice
contains four parts:
Part I is a high-level description of the proposed themes and
framework of NCA6. Comment on these themes and framework is requested
from the public.
Part II is a call for volunteers to participate in NCA6 as authors
and technical contributors.
Part III requests submission of relevant research for authors to
review and consider in developing NCA6.
Part IV provides a notice of planned public engagement events
throughout the NCA6 development cycle.
In addition to the proposed themes and framework, this Federal
Register Notice requests public comment on ways to make the assessment
information accessible and useful to multiple audiences; specific types
of information or formats that would be most useful to decision-makers;
how to best describe risks and impacts to inform decisions, as well as
potential opportunities to reduce those risks and impacts; new topics
or new approaches to topics addressed in previous assessments;
overarching themes that NCA6 should consider addressing; and other
relevant input.
The Global Change Research Act (GCRA) of 1990 mandates that the
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) deliver a National Climate
Assessment (NCA) to Congress and the President not less frequently than
every four years that ``(1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the
findings of the Program; (2) analyzes the effects of global change on
the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land
and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human
social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) analyzes current
trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects
major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.''
To date, five NCAs have been released. The first NCA was published
in 2000, and the second was published in 2009. The third NCA was
published in 2014, and the fourth was released in two volumes and
completed in November 2018. The most recent, the fifth NCA, was
released in November 2023, and can be found at https://nca2023.globalchange.gov.
NCA6 development will be transparent and inclusive, offering
opportunities for diverse public participation throughout the process.
The production and review processes are designed to result in a report
that is authoritative, timely, relevant, and policy-neutral; valued by
authors and users; accessible to the widest possible audience; and
fully compliant with the GCRA.
I. Overarching Themes for NCA6 (Draft Prospectus)
NCA6 will encompass a number of overarching themes and perspectives
that respond to needs and gaps identified by previous assessments. We
seek inputs on potential overarching themes for the NCA6 report,
including on the topics listed below:
Identification of advancements or improvements, relative to
previous assessments, in scientific understanding of human-induced and
natural processes of global change and the resulting implications for
the U.S.
Characterization of current and future risks associated with global
change, with quantifiable metrics such as indicators and projections
where possible, and with the needs of different sub-national
geographies and multiple audiences in mind.
Examining trends and developments in adaptation; adaptation options
and effectiveness of adaptation efforts; approaches for monitoring
adaptation progress including indicators and metrics.
Further exploration of how people understand the drivers, risks,
and impacts of climate change; how changes in climate affects national
security, society, and different people or groups of people living
within the U.S.; and how people behave in response to climate-induced
change.
Identification of populations living in the U.S. at higher risk of
climate impacts, perspectives on equity and
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environmental justice in connection with domestic mitigation and
adaptation actions, exploration of the socio-economic impacts from
these actions, and the role of frontline communities in the country's
response to climate change.
Better understanding of sources and trends in U.S. and global
greenhouse gas emissions; new strategies for mitigation, effectiveness
of mitigation efforts, and new technology pathways for reaching
different emissions targets; tradeoffs in different response options;
and any other response-related questions that might support decision-
making.
We seek comments on these proposed overarching themes, as well as
suggestions for potential additional overarching themes.
Proposed Framework for NCA6
What follows is a proposed high-level framework intended to guide
the scope and content for NCA6. Public comments are sought on all
aspects of this proposed framework.
The proposed framework includes the following topics:
(A) Introduction and context for NCA6
(B) Foundational physical, social, and biological drivers of past and
future climate change
(C) Climate risks and impacts to human health and well-being, social
systems, and environments
(D) Regional and, where possible, sub-regional analyses within the
United States
(E) Information needed to inform climate change mitigation and
adaptation actions, increase resilience, and reduce risks
(F) Updates to the NCA Atlas and other climate services tools
This framework presents the anticipated scope and content of NCA6;
it is not an indicator of the final structure of the report. Comments
on these general topics, as well as any key scientific advances within
a topic, are welcomed.
A. Introduction and Context for NCA6
Considerations of context and scope of NCA6 include the overarching
themes noted above as well as the following:
NCA's relationship to complementary domestic and international
assessment efforts.
Advancements in science or scientific approaches since NCA5 and
discussion of the associated uncertainty, including assessments
completed or in progress after publication of NCA5, and in particular
those under the auspices of USGCRP (e.g., the National Nature
Assessment).
The geographic and temporal scope (i.e., historic to the next 25 to
100 years).
Risks to interconnected natural, built, and social systems, and the
potential for cascading or compound impacts of global change.
Terms and their definitions used to describe confidence and
uncertainty levels associated with key statements and findings (and
accompanying traceable accounts), which may be similar to those used in
NCA5.
We seek public comment on the proposed introductory and contextual
material described above for NCA6.
B. Foundational Physical, Social, and Biological Drivers of Past and
Future Climate Change
NCA6 will assess the state of scientific evidence regarding the
social, physical, and biological drivers of global change, with an
emphasis on advances in knowledge since NCA5, including the following:
Changing global and national conditions that influence (1) drivers
of climate change, namely the activities that lead to emissions and
atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gas concentrations; and (2) factors
that affect communities' resilience and vulnerability, such as
demographic and land-use changes, behavioral changes, advances in
technology, and economic development.
Observations of changes in climate-related phenomena at global,
national, and subnational scales, such as atmospheric composition,
radiative forcing, temperature, precipitation, climate variability,
large-scale climate modes (e.g., El Ni[ntilde]o events), drought,
wildfire, floods and associated hydrologic events (e.g., streamflow,
snowpack), sea-level rise and other physical ocean changes,
biogeochemistry of land and marine systems, ocean acidification,
extreme heat, and storms (e.g., hurricanes), atmospheric rivers, polar
changes (including permafrost and land-ice dynamics), and ice-sheet
dynamics; and attribution of social, physical, and biophysical
processes to human activities.
Future projections of changes in Earth system processes based on
modeling results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Treatment of future scenarios, and associated risks and impacts, will
emphasize the most recent modeling data (i.e., CMIP6), with CMIP5 and
other future scenarios included as determined by the available sources
of information.
Scientific understanding of observed and future extremes, including
the attribution of an extreme event (intensity, duration, frequency,
etc.) to climate change-related causes and potential tipping points or
other potential outcomes that may have a low probability of occurring,
but could be extremely damaging or highly beneficial to the U.S. were
they to occur.
We seek public comment on the proposed physical, social, and
biological science framing described above for NCA6.
C. Climate Change Risks and Impacts to Human Health and Well-Being,
Social Systems, and Environments
The GCRA of 1990 requires that the NCA analyze ``the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy
production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human
health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.''
NCA6 will provide national-level overviews of observed and potential
risks and impacts under a range of scenarios in these key areas of
concern for people and the environment, with supporting regional
information, as described under Part D.
To better understand global change, non-climatic trends (e.g.,
population changes) will be discussed to provide a broader context
within which the effects of climate change can be understood. Current
and future risks, impacts, and benefits will be identified in each of
these topic areas, using quantifiable metrics where possible. The
impact of extreme events will be addressed where possible. In addition,
potential mitigation, adaptation, and resilience measures to reduce
risks will be described, to the extent these are identified in
available sources of information.
In addition to coverage of these mandated topics, the following
additional specific areas are under consideration for inclusion in
NCA6: land cover and land-use change; forests; ecosystems and ecosystem
services; coasts; ocean ecosystems; marine resources; built
environment; urban and rural systems; air quality; effects on Tribal
and Indigenous communities; economics; and international effects, in
particular those that may raise environmental, humanitarian, trade, or
public safety and security issues for the United States. It is worth
noting that NCA6 may choose to reduce its coverage of topics that are
assessed in other products (such as the National Nature Assessment),
depending on the assessment findings of the author teams.
NCA6 will prioritize use of data and research that include full
geographic coverage of the entire nation, inclusive
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of Alaska, Hawai`i, U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, and the U.S.
Caribbean.
We seek public comment on the proposed areas of focus for NCA6 as
described above and welcome input on other topics that should be
considered for inclusion. Please note that topics listed in the Draft
Prospectus or submitted as comments may or may not result in a
standalone chapter or feature; development of the table of contents is
at the discretion of the NCA6 Federal Steering Committee.
D. Regional Analyses Within the United States
This section will describe sub-national, regional-level
perspectives for each of the areas identified in Part C, allowing for
discussion of topics of interest to each region.
The proposed regional analyses for NCA6 will follow the model of
NCA5, which included the following regions of the United States:
Northeast, Southeast, U.S. Caribbean, Midwest, Northern Great Plains,
Southern Great Plains, Northwest, Southwest, Alaska, and Hawai`i and
U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands (see https://nca2023.globalchange.gov/chapter/front-matter#fig-1). Areas of focus will vary across regions
based on the availability of research and the regional identification
of needs.
As appropriate and where available, NCA6 will also highlight
information at the state, city, Tribal, and territory level, as well as
urban and rural case studies to showcase climate trends, potential
risks, and mitigation, adaptation, and resilience action with local
specificity.
We seek public comment on the proposed level of detail to be
provided at regional scales, sectors, or topics to focus on within
particular regions, and overarching themes that should inform the
regional analyses within NCA6.
E. Information Needed To Support Climate Change Mitigation, Adaptation,
Resilience, and Risk Reduction
NCA6 will identify needs and opportunities for mitigation,
adaptation, and resilience measures and planning in the face of
observed and projected changes in climate. NCA6 will not evaluate nor
recommend specific policy measures, actions, instruments, or mechanisms
to deliver or incentivize either adaptation or mitigation responses at
any level of government. Rather, the intention of NCA6 is to inform
mitigation, adaptation, and resilience needs, planning, and actions
across the nation. Scientific assessment of mitigation, adaptation, and
resilience needs and opportunities will also be drawn from relevant
information from Parts B, C, and D as outlined above, including
evidence of successful measures, and discussed in the context of the
research topics described below.
Review of the following is proposed for inclusion in NCA6:
Recent information on economic drivers of emissions; social and
economic impacts of climate change across sectors and regions at
different levels of warming.
Recent information on the potential for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, adapting to climate impacts, and building climate resilience
through various solutions and strategies. This includes an assessment
of the evidence regarding the effectiveness of these solutions and
strategies.
Recent information describing case studies (see Part D), where
relevant.
The NCA also underpins U.S. government decision-support tools and
resources such as the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation
(CMRA) portal, and U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit. Moreover, the NCA
is a significant climate service for both producers and users in their
mitigation, adaptation, and resilience work.
We seek public comment on the proposed framing of information in
NCA6 needed to support climate change mitigation, adaptation,
resilience, and risk reduction, connections between NCA6 and other U.S.
government decision support tools, and how NCA6 may inform development
and delivery of climate services (see Part F).
F. Updates to NCA Atlas and Other Climate Services
The incorporation of NCA information into U.S. government decision-
support tools and other climate services has proven to be an effective
way of ensuring NCAs are both useful and usable. USGCRP will maintain
and expand the NCA Atlas as NCA6 develops, in addition to maintaining
and expanding other existing support tools (see Part E). USGCRP will
also seek to identify needs and opportunities for new climate services
or connections between NCA and other relevant tools. This could include
assessments of available climate services, especially as they relate to
adaptation, resilience, and mitigation efforts. Gaps and opportunities
could be a result of governance challenges and/or modeling/scientific
understanding. Suggestions for other decision-support tools and
services are welcomed.
As with previous assessments, appendices and front matter sections
will provide additional background, context, and detail on the
development of NCA6. Topics currently planned for inclusion include
report process details, legal mandates and requirements, tools, and
technical inputs. Suggestions for other appendix topics are requested.
We seek public comment on all aspects of the anticipated scope and
content of this framework for NCA6, as described above.
Responses: Response to this Request for Comment is voluntary.
Respondents need not reply to all questions or topics. Responses may be
used by the U.S. Government for program planning on a non-attribution
basis. NOAA therefore requests that no business proprietary information
or copyrighted information be submitted in response to this Request for
Comment. Please note that the U.S. Government will not pay for response
preparation, or for the use of any information contained in the
response.
II. Call for Authors and Contributors
NCA6 will be written by a group of volunteers with expertise in
topics relevant to climate science and global change. Nominations are
sought for authors with pertinent subject matter expertise,
proficiency, or relevant background, including Indigenous Knowledge
holders, in at least one of the topics delineated in the draft
prospectus (Part I). Nominations are encouraged from all governmental
and nongovernmental sectors.
The NCA6 Federal Steering Committee (FSC) recognizes the value of
Indigenous Knowledge that Tribal Nations and Indigenous peoples have
gained and passed down from generation to generation and recognizes
Indigenous Knowledge as one of many important bodies of knowledge that
can contribute to NCA6. The FSC understands that multiple lines of
evidence or ways of knowing can lead to better-formed assessments and
encourages nominations of Indigenous Knowledge holders for all NCA6
participant roles.
Submissions must document that nominees have demonstrated
backgrounds such that they could contribute to the development of a
robust assessment as subject matter experts in one or more of the
topics described in the Draft Prospectus (Part I of this FRN) above. In
addition, individuals interested in being considered for chapter
leadership positions should have experience with leading collaborative
teams under deadlines.
Authors volunteering to assist in writing NCA6 are providing an
important service to the United States. In addition to providing an
opportunity to inform policy, participation in NCA6 will allow authors
to expand their professional networks and visibility,
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and to explore opportunities to create derivative products.
The Federal Government will not provide financial compensation for
these roles. The Federal Government is anticipated to provide travel
costs to authors to attend meetings if requested for NCA6; however,
this is not guaranteed. Formal acknowledgment of participant
contributions will be provided to each author and their institution as
requested.
NCA6 will attempt to address the full breadth of each topic and
seeks a suitably diverse author pool, including Indigenous Knowledge
holders, biophysical and social scientists, engineers, planners, and
traditionally underrepresented groups. Selection criteria for all
author positions will consider expertise, disciplinary background,
career status, diversity, and geographic representation.
Participant Roles
Nominees may be invited to serve as Chapter Lead Authors, Graphics
Development Leads, Authors, or Technical Contributors to NCA6.
A Federal Coordinating Lead Author (CLA) selected by the Federal
Steering Committee (FSC) will serve as a liaison between the author
team and federal agencies.
Chapter Leads (CLs) oversee chapter development by selecting
authors, managing author teams, delegating chapter writing assignments,
and providing drafts of the chapter to the CLA. CLs are closely
involved with the writing process, working to ensure that the content
of the chapter is consistent across sections and drafts are delivered
on time. CLs will, with input and guidance from the FSC and CLA,
establish author teams comprising federal and non-federal experts. Only
non-federal experts may serve as CLs. Persons selected as CLs will be
informed after the close of the nominations window.
The Graphics Development Lead is a new role introduced for NCA6.
Graphics Leads will be a full author on the chapter team and will be
responsible for leading and managing the development of all graphics
within their assigned chapter. They will work directly with USGCRP
staff and the NOAA Technical Support Unit throughout the process to
ensure that well-designed informative graphics are developed alongside
the text of the chapter.
Technical Contributors are invited by CLs to contribute to chapters
for discrete, specific content, such as a case study or a figure, on an
as-needed basis. Technical Contributors are not chapter authors and may
be either federal or non-federal employees. Technical Contributors may
be brought on later in the NCA6 development process as specific
expertise is identified.
Eligible nominees not selected as Chapter Leads will be considered
for other chapter roles as appropriate. For more information on author
roles, see https://www.globalchange.gov/nca6.
Nomination Process
In developing NCA6, USGCRP will follow the principles of a use-
inspired, knowledge-informed assessment, shaped by both the potential
uses of the final products and by science and other forms of knowledge.
USGCRP recognizes the importance of lived experiences and acknowledges
Indigenous Knowledge as an important form of evidence. Across all
phases of NCA6, USGCRP aims to be inclusive, represent diverse
perspectives, and create products that are accessible to the widest
possible audience.
Responses to this request for nominations for authors must be
submitted by the closing of this FRN. The nomination forms can be
accessed via https://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Interested persons
may nominate themselves or third parties for these roles, and
individuals may submit multiple nominations.
Each nomination must include (1) the nominee's full name, title,
institutional affiliation, and contact information; (2) the nominee's
area(s) of expertise; (3) the proposed NCA6 topic(s) (see Draft
Prospectus in Part I above) for which the nominee is qualified; (4) a
short description of the nominee's qualifications relative to
contributing to the report; and (5) a current CV [maximum length four
(4) pages].
All interested members of the public are encouraged to volunteer
themselves for consideration. Nominations with missing information, or
for nominees who do not meet the eligibility requirements above, may
not be considered.
Expertise Sought
In accordance with the GCRA, USGCRP seeks nominations with
expertise in the areas of climate/Earth system science, as well as
sectoral, issue-specific, and regional impacts. This includes expertise
in the following broad topic areas (subject to change):
Climate/Earth system science expertise to integrate, evaluate, and
interpret the latest scientific findings; discuss the associated
uncertainties; analyze current trends in global change; and project
major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years.
Sectoral and issue-specific impacts expertise, including in the
social sciences, to analyze the effects of global change on the natural
environment (including terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems);
agriculture (including food and food production); energy production and
use; land and water resources (including land cover/land-use change,
forests, coasts, oceans, and terrestrial/marine resources);
transportation; human health and welfare (including air quality); human
social systems (including the built environment, urban/rural systems,
cities, and economics); biological diversity; Tribes and Indigenous
peoples; and response.
Regional expertise that integrates across relevant natural and
social science areas for the NCA regions (available at https://www.globalchange.gov/nca5).
Response expertise relevant to NCA6, including (but not limited to)
mitigation, adaptation, resilience, or other relevant scientific
topics.
Any other relevant climate services-related topic or skill set not
listed above, including (but not limited to) engineering, planning,
architecture, finance, business.
Further, authors are welcome to nominate themselves for topics not
listed above that are consistent with the GCRA mandate.
In addition to technical knowledge, USGCRP seeks nominees with
expertise that would be useful for developing an NCA chapter. These
skills include (but are not limited to) the following:
Clear and effective scientific writing, especially for a non-
technical audience.
Graphic design experience, such as developing data-focused graphics
that are clear and effective, development of infographics, or
downscaling modeling visualization.
Team management experience, including overseeing the work of
multiple technical experts to a central project.
Synthesis and assessment projects, especially across multiple
research disciplines and types of technical inputs.
Conditions of Participation
All participation in and contributions to the NCA will be without
compensation and will be potentially included in the publicly released
NCA. By voluntarily participating in the NCA, you acknowledge the
following:
1. Participation in the NCA means facilitating the development of
the NCA, contributing new work to the NCA, or contributing preexisting
work for the NCA. Any such work will be
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incorporated into the NCA at the Federal Government's discretion,
including the possibility of modification, without any compensation and
without redaction under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) or
otherwise.
2. All contributions to the NCA of text and original figures (those
newly created for NCA and not previously published) will be released
under the Creative Commons 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication (CC0
1.0). Such contributions will not be protected by copyright or other
intellectual property rights. Data, algorithms/models, and software
code used to create or support the creation of text and original
figures will also be publicly released in connection with the NCA. In
some cases, such data, algorithms/models, and software code may be
subject to copyright restrictions prohibiting both their use for
commercial purposes and the creation of derivative works, such as CC
BY-NC-ND 4.0, but any such restrictions may not prohibit their use for
the purpose of reproducing results.
3. Participants assume any and all risks associated with
participation in the NCA. By participating, participants inherently
waive all claims against the Federal Government and its related
entities, except for claims based on willful misconduct, for any
injury, death, damage, or loss of property, revenue, or profits
(whether direct, indirect, or consequential) arising from participation
in the NCA.
4. By participating, participants agree to indemnify the Federal
Government in the event that it suffers liability or damages as a
result of its use of the contribution.
Submission of a nomination is entirely voluntary and submitters are
encouraged to ensure they understand the scope of the obligation before
volunteering. More information, as well as information on asking
questions beforehand, at https://www.globalchange.gov/nca6.
III. Call for Technical Inputs
In addition, this request presents an opportunity to submit
relevant scientific/technical inputs to inform the assessment. Any
interested parties are encouraged to submit relevant sources of
information (e.g., papers, articles, reports, Indigenous Knowledge, and
other local knowledge) for the NCA6 author teams to consider and assess
for their work. Technical submissions will be accepted electronically
via the USGCRP Public Contribution System: https://contribute.globalchange.gov Instructions for submitting technical
inputs are available on the website. Submitters may enter text or
upload files in response to this notice.
After the closure of this FRN, submissions of technical inputs will
still be accepted throughout the NCA6 development process. This call
for technical inputs is expected to remain open until the close of the
NCA6 call for public comments on the NCA6 Third Order Draft,
anticipated to end in early 2027. Additional information on the process
for submitting technical inputs can be found after the closure of this
FRN on USGCRP's website. See https://www.globalchange.gov/nca6 for more
information.
Response to this call for technical inputs is voluntary.
IV. Notice of Planned Public Engagement Opportunities for NCA6
Multiple opportunities for public engagement to inform NCA6 will be
presented throughout the report's development. The following planned
public engagement schedule is presented to notify the public of these
coming opportunities. The time ranges proposed are subject to change
based on the timing of various development stages for NCA6.
Public call for comments on the Draft Prospectus (Q2 2024)
Public call for authors and technical inputs (Q2 2024)
Public comment on NCA6 annotated outline (Q3 2025)
Public engagement workshops and webinars (Q3 2025)
Public call for art (Q2 2026)
Public call for Review Editors (Q3 2026)
Public comment on NCA6 Third Order Draft (Q4 2026 and Q1 2027)
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine peer review
of NCA6 Third Order Draft (Q4 2026 and Q1 2027)
Interested parties are invited to participate in these public
engagement opportunities to ensure robust public input to NCA6.
Specific dates and locations for all engagements will be provided on
https://www.globalchange.gov/notices. Members of the public may also
sign up to receive updates through USGCRP's bimonthly newsletter at
https://www.globalchange.gov/newsletter-signup.
David Holst,
Chief Financial Officer and Administrative Officer, Office of Oceanic
and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration.
[FR Doc. 2024-09575 Filed 5-1-24; 8:45 am]
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